Bitcoin holds above $70K as Iran warns oil could reach $200 per barrel amid escalating US-Iran conflict shaking global energy markets.

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SEC and CFTC sign agreement to coordinate regulation, clarify crypto oversight, and reduce duplicative rules across US financial markets.

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Ripple launches a $750M share buyback, valuing the company at $50B as it expands its digital asset infrastructure business.

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Foundry plans to launch an institutional grade Zcash mining pool in April 2026, expanding compliant mining infrastructure for the network.

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Revolut receives PRA approval to launch a UK bank, enabling FSCS protected deposits and new services for its 13 million UK customers.

The post Revolut secures UK banking license enabling deposit and lending services appeared first on Crypto Briefing.

Bitcoin Magazine

Coinbase CPO Rejects Claims of Opposing Bitcoin Tax Relief as Jack Dorsey Demands Clarity from Brian Armstrong

Coinbase Chief Policy Officer Faryar Shirzad directly denied allegations that the company is lobbying against a proposed de minimis tax exemption for Bitcoin.

Responding on X to a post by Bitcoin podcaster Marty Bent, Shirzad wrote: “This is a total lie @MartyBent. We have never and will never lobby against Bitcoin. Ever.” Though multiple people are asking for a public statement from Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong on the matter. Jack Dorsey of Block specifically called Armstrong out for clarification, saying “hope this is true for de minimis as well. @brian_armstrong?”.

UPDATE 2: Bent claims to have three different sources on the rumor.

UPDATE: Armstrong responded with a denial of the rumor as well. calling it “totally false”.

The denial comes after Bent reported on March 11 that Coinbase is allegedly telling lawmakers the exemption is unnecessary because “No one is using bitcoin as money. A de-minimis exemption for bitcoin is a hand out that will be DOA.” Bent claimed the company is pushing for stablecoins-only treatment to advance its own business.

Bitcoin Policy Institute Managing Director Conner Brown confirmed a related development the same day. “I can confirm that over the past three months there’s been a strong shift on the Hill to limiting the de minimis exemption to stablecoins only,” Brown said. “BPI continues to meet with lawmakers to explain what a strategic blunder this would be for the U.S.” 

The de minimis tax exemption would eliminate capital-gains taxes and IRS reporting requirements on small Bitcoin transactions, solving a long standing friction for the adoption of bitcoin as currency. Under current law, Bitcoin is treated as property, so every spend — even buying coffee or paying a freelancer — creates a taxable event that requires tracking cost basis and filing paperwork. Legislation backed by Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R-WY) would set a $300-per-transaction threshold with a $5,000 annual cap, aligning routine Bitcoin payments more closely with minor foreign-currency exchanges.

Supporters argue the change is essential to remove tax friction that currently discourages everyday use. Without it, compliance burdens make Bitcoin impractical for routine purchases and limit its function as a medium of exchange.

Block Inc. has been the most vocal corporate supporter. In November 2025 the company behind Cash App and Square launched its “Bitcoin is Everyday Money” campaign, explicitly calling for the exemption while rolling out Lightning Network tools that let Square merchants accept Bitcoin payments with zero fees through 2027.

Lightning Network data published by Bitcoin Magazine directly undercuts claims that Bitcoin sees no use as money. A February 19, 2026 article reported $1.17 billion in monthly volume across 5.22 million transactions in November 2025, according to aggregated figures from River Financial covering more than 50% of network capacity. Average transaction size rose to $223.

A June 18, 2025 Bitcoin Magazine report showed the network had reached roughly 1.5 million users and $1.5 billion in trading volume. Block’s own Lightning node produced a 9.7% yield routing actual payments, while Cash App handled one in four outbound Lightning transactions after 7x usage growth.

Block Bitcoin product lead Miles Suter summed up the company’s stance: “If Bitcoin just becomes digital gold, we failed the mission. Bitcoin payments validate Bitcoin. They make it real. Bitcoin is money.”

The exchange of claims highlights ongoing tensions between crypto focused platforms and companies building payment infrastructure for Bitcoin. With Lightning volume continuing to climb, advocates maintain the exemption would accelerate commercial adoption rather than provide unearned relief. Congress is still weighing the proposal within broader digital-asset tax reform discussions.

This post Coinbase CPO Rejects Claims of Opposing Bitcoin Tax Relief as Jack Dorsey Demands Clarity from Brian Armstrong first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Juan Galt.

Bitcoin Magazine

Cosmos Health (COSM) Buys $600K in Bitcoin, Expands Digital Asset Treasury

Cosmos Health Inc. announced it has purchased $600,000 worth of Bitcoin as part of its ongoing digital assets treasury strategy. 

Following the latest purchase, the healthcare company said its total investment in digital assets now stands at approximately $3.1 million, including holdings in Bitcoin and other crypto.

The company did not share the price point of the purchases.

Chief Executive Officer Greg Siokas said the company views select digital assets as an attractive asset class with long-term upside potential.

He added that Cosmos Health is building its position through a disciplined treasury approach designed to diversify the company’s balance sheet while maintaining financial flexibility.

Siokas noted that the firm’s crypto holdings could also provide optional liquidity if the market continues to undervalue the company relative to its book value, allowing management to deploy capital toward initiatives aimed at increasing shareholder value.

As we continue to expand our core healthcare operations and execute on our broader growth strategy,” Siokas said. “We believe selectively allocating capital to digital assets can complement our balance sheet and create additional value for shareholders.”

Listed on Nasdaq under the ticker COSM, Cosmos Health operates a vertically integrated healthcare business spanning pharmaceutical manufacturing, nutraceutical brands, distribution, telehealth services, and research partnerships focused on conditions including obesity, diabetes, and cancer.

COSM is currently trading at $0.36 a share. 

Cosmos: Bitcoin is a hedge against inflation

In February, Cosmos said it had expanded its digital assets program with a $500,000 purchase of Bitcoin, bringing its total cryptocurrency investments to $2.5 million across Bitcoin and Ethereum. 

The company said the move was moving its strategy beyond other crypto while it also evaluated adding other select cryptocurrencies as part of its treasury diversification efforts.

Back in late 2024, Cosmos announced it would begin adding Bitcoin to its treasury reserves as part of a broader strategy to diversify its balance sheet and invest in emerging technologies.

The company said the move aligned with its forward-looking approach to innovation, following its acquisition of an AI-driven drug repurposing platform. 

Leadership framed the crypto allocation as both a potential hedge against inflation and currency devaluation and a way to gain exposure to assets with long-term growth potential.

Cosmos Health also indicated it was exploring the ability to accept cryptocurrency payments from customers while gradually building a larger reserve of digital assets over time.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading near $71,000 after briefly touching $73,000 earlier this week.

This post Cosmos Health (COSM) Buys $600K in Bitcoin, Expands Digital Asset Treasury first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Micah Zimmerman.

Bitcoin Magazine

Samourai Letter #4: Notes From The Inside

Dear Reader,

As I write this letter to you it is January 19th, 2026. I have been in the custody of the Bureau of Prisons for 31 days. One full month. I figure that is a milestone worthy of penning another letter to you. The time has simultaneously crawled at a snail’s pace and raced by quicker than I can understand. From day to day time moves unbearably slowly. The day crawls by, I feel as if I am walking through quicksand, every step an enormous effort. A minute feels like an hour, and hour feels like a day. But at the same time it feels as if just yesterday I was surrendering myself to FPC Morgantown.

The one month milestone has been able to creep on me surprisingly quickly while I was concerned with how slow time has been passing. I was sentenced by Judge Dusty Coat, excuse me, Judge Denise Cote for a period of 60 months of incarceration. One month down, 59 more to go.

Prison is a totally alien environment. Everything is seemingly backwards and designed to frustrate you. As many prisoners have said to me, “BOP stands for Backwards On Purpose”, and they really aren’t wrong.

Here is a quick example, because the US taxpayer is now responsible for my health and well being I have been placed on the waiting list for a dental check, cleaning, and any basic work that might be needed (filling, extraction, etc…). Being a logical person I concluded that the wait would not be too long considering the population of FPC Morgantown is so low (around 160 inmates when well over 800 can be held here) it wouldn’t take too long for my name to reach the ‘top of the list’.

I was then informed that the waiting list includes all inmates within the entire BOP at every facility. So even though our dentist here only has 160 people to see, I must wait for someone in Oklahoma who is higher than me on the list to receive treatment before I can be seen. Backwards on Purpose. Nothing works logically or as expected.

On my 28th day here I received my A&O – Admission and Orientation – which is mostly a box checking operation as we have all been orientated by the other inmates in the 28 days we have been here.

In any case, we were told that being here is not a punishment. The punishment is the sentence the judge hands down, the time away from family, being here at the Federal prison is just our home for a short time. They tell you this with a straight face while counting you five times a day, forcing you to work for slave wages, and restricting the number of people you can communicate with per month. Not a punishment.

There are vaguely motivational posters placed around the inside of the housing unit. Most are so saccharine they make me queasy, I could do with out the ‘HR-ization’ of prison thank you very much. They are all clearly printed from the internet without permission as they are all pixelated to hell, but there is one that is my favorite. I get a good laugh whenever I walk by it or think about it. There is a vignette of a iron barred cell door with the words “You are only incarcerated by the walls you build yourself”.

What a hilarious thing to put in a prison. I would love to imagine a CO or administrator putting that up because they found it funny, but I know it is more likely someone put it up because they found it inspiring and insightful, which I suppose makes it even funnier.

Over the month I have been here I have somewhat succeeded in finding a routine – something many people who have been to prison have told me is essential – and sticking to it. I wake up every day at 4:00 AM. This suits me greatly because I am the only one awake at that time and getting any sort of alone time in prison is surprisingly difficult (at least while you are in general population. If you are in Solitary Confinement, it is very easy).

Upon waking up I make myself what I have taken to calling a “prison latte” which is a mug of hot milk made from powdered milk with two heaping scoops of Folgers instant coffee added in. I collect my pen, notebook, and my prison latte and find a well lit area. Where that area ends up being tends to change by the day, there is no rhyme or reason as to which overhead lights the COs turn on throughout the week.

Usually I end up in the common room or the computer room, which ever one has lights on or enough light bleeding in from the hallway lights. I sit and write for the next hour. I write these letters to you, a daily journal, or responses to any mail I have received. I return to my bunk to await the 5:00 AM count. At 12:00AM, 3:00AM, 5:00AM, 4:00PM, and 9:00PM (and 10:00AM on weekends) we must be at our bunks as two guards come by our beds and count us to make sure we are all still there.

I await the count by beginning my full body stretching routine. I learnt this routine many years ago – during martial arts training – which focuses on stretching every major muscle group from neck to toe. It has become an essential part of my day since I wake up so sore and stiff from the paper thin mattress on the sheet metal bunk. Stretching makes me feel somewhat normal.

The 5:00 AM count usually takes place around 5:20. Two guards walk briskly by, their chains and keys jingling with their gait, and they presumably count you by shining a bright flashlight in your face – to be fair, only one particular CO does that, the others seem to be a bit more courteous and mindful that people are still trying to sleep.

While stretching I listen to my AM/FM radio. This radio is my prized possession, it connects me to the outside world unlike anything else in here. At 5:00AM I tune to the local public radio station 90.5 which plays the BBC World Service news and documentaries. I look forward to these daily programs greatly.

At 6:00AM the telephones and computers turn on. I check my prison email first. The computers aren’t like normal computers, imagine instead a 1990’s PC terminal with extremely limited functionality and designed specifically to be as frustrating as possible.

It costs $0.06/minute to read, reply, and compose emails. So I try to be as quick as possible when reading and responding to any emails I receive from my approved contacts. Right after checking email I call my wife Lauren.

There are 8 payphone style telephones in the housing unit, but only 2 of them work before 5:00 PM. There is no real reason for this restriction. BOP, backwards on purpose. The telephone line is usually quite bad. You often have to yell to be heard and a computerized woman interrupts you often to announce a reminder that this is indeed a call from a Federal Prison, as if we weren’t aware.

Despite the frustrations of the phone system I live for that 6:00AM call. You only are allocated 510 minutes per month, and the most you can spend on the phone in one session is 15 minutes. You then need to wait 30 minutes before you can use the phone again.

However, 510 minutes means you can only make a single 15 minute phone call per day and be left with three 15 minute phone calls extra for the month. So, I call Lauren once per day for 15 minutes and place one 15 minute call to my mother, my father, and my grandmother per month.
Rationing the phone minutes is stressful, making sure I have enough minutes left to make the calls I want to make is something I check and double check every week. But not to worry, being here is not a punishment, rationing my connection to the outside world must be one of those walls I built in my mind.

After my 15 minute call concludes I change into athletic clothing and head towards the recreation building which usually opens around 6:30 to 7:00 AM most days. I have made a friend in here and we play handball together most mornings for about an hour. It is good exercise and a fun game to play. A nice way to kill and hour. If we don’t play handball I try to spend some time doing cardio or strength training in the gym, depending on the day.

By 8:00 AM I am back in the housing unit getting ready to make breakfast. I usually make oatmeal with dried fruit and honey, but sometimes will opt for a vanilla protein shake. I purchase all these items from the commissary weekly. I choose to make both my protein shake and my oatmeal with powdered milk instead of water, for extra protein and because it tastes better and creamier than just using water.

Since I no longer go to breakfast in the chow hall at 6:00AM I do not have access to any milk cartons. I instead buy the powdered milk and either add hot water to it for oatmeal or cold water for the vanilla shake.

I prefer to cook for myself whenever I can now. By this time I have turned off the public radio station, the BBC world service is off air and has been replaced by NPR, which is so self important and out of touch that I cannot stand to listen to it. I switch to 101.9 FM WVAQ where a fun and casual “drivetime” radio show is airing. “Josh and Nikki in the morning” offers a casual and funny morning show that is easy to listen to. They play whatever the hits of the day are, which I do not recognize at all, but most of what they play is quite catchy.

There is one song performed by a female singer going on and on about “Ophelia”. I am not 100% certain but I suspect it may be Taylor Swift. I enjoy the song which I guess makes me a Swiftie? Maybe someone will write me a letter telling me who sings that.

After my breakfast, at around 9:00 AM I like to start my job. I actually have two prison jobs, but one is only on weekends. The one I do daily at 9:00 AM is “Bathroom Orderly”. Orderly is a fancy word for janitor.

At 9:00 AM I close the B-Wing bathroom and begin the grueling and frankly disgusting process of cleaning up after 80 men who seemingly are incapable of cleaning up after themselves. I am provided two rags, a spray bottle of disinfectant, a straw broom, and a musty mop. I have come up with a system that seems to be efficient and the most sanitary.

I sweep the entire bathroom and shower room first, trying to get all the pubic hair and dust into piles I can sweep into the dustbin. Afterwards I spray and wipe down the shelf and sinks using one of the allocated rags. I wipe away any hair or soap scum left in the sinks and ensure they are spotless.

I then move on to the showers, spraying the shelf, bench, and faucet handle and wiping them down. Again, I am aiming to remove errant hairs and dust. Sometimes there are other things I must wipe up that is not fit to discuss in this letter, but you can use your imagination.

Once the showers are complete, I wash out the rag and move on to the urinals. I wipe the top (how in the world does pubic hair get onto the top of a urinal. Please dear reader, I cannot figure it out) and sides, and most importantly the rim. It is not very nice, but it doesn’t take too long and it is satisfying when it is done.

Once the urinals are done I move onto the toilets. Spraying the bowl, the rim, the seat, the flush handle I wipe the underside of the seat and the rim down. I use a toilet brush to scrub inside the bowl. Finally I take the one unused rag and first wipe the handles of the flusher and then the top side of each toilet seat. Once all that is complete I mop the entire floor including the showers and each bathroom stall.

It usually takes about 45 minutes to an hour. I work up quite a sweat but I try to do a good job as I also use that bathroom and I prefer my bathroom to be clean. Once finished I take a shower. One of the only perks of the job of bathroom orderly is that I get to use the bathroom while it is freshly ‘clean’, before anyone else has the opportunity to desecrate it.

By 10:30 I am done with the shower and and the rest of my day is free. I am still working on how to fill this part of my day into my routine. Right now I mostly read and nap, and then read and nap some more.

I hope to become more productive with my time soon. Maybe I will take some classes when some become available to help fill the time. I try to avoid the several TV rooms as it seems mostly filled with people who do nothing else but watch TV and get quite territorial about the remote. Many times each of the TV rooms will be playing the same football game, which I have no interest in watching. So, TV is not a reliable or desired way to pass the time.

I cannot believe it has been one month already. It often feels like I am stuck in a bad dream I cannot wake from. An unending nightmare that me and many others here with me are living. The most we can do is figure out a way to make the time go by as quickly as possible so we can get back to our families and our lives. One month down, 59 left to go.

Thank you for reading,

Keonne Rodriguez

Write to Keonne:

Keonne Rodriguez
11404-511
FPC Morgantown
FEDERAL PRISON CAMP
P.O. BOX 1000
MORGANTOWN, WV 26507

Mailing Guidelines:

Please note: You can only send letters (no more than 3 pages long). No packages or other items are allowed. Books, magazines, and newspapers must be sent directly from the publisher or an online retailer like Amazon. All letters must include a full return address and sender name to be delivered.

This is a guest post by Keonne Rodriguez. Opinions expressed are entirely their own and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

This post Samourai Letter #4: Notes From The Inside first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Keonne Rodriguez.

Bitcoin Magazine

Michael Saylor’s Strategy (MSTR) Estimated To Have Already Bought Over 1,200 Bitcoin Today

Data from STRC.live and market trackers indicate that Michael Saylor’s bitcoin‑focused firm, Strategy, has purchased an estimated 1,200 BTC so far today via its preferred equity issuance. 

Yesterday, on March 10, Strategy’s Variable Rate Series A Preferred Stock (STRC) posted a record $409 million in daily trading volume, accompanied by 3% 30-day volatility and a one-month VWAP near $99.78, the highest sustained average since issuance. 

According to on‑chain indicators and STRC.live X posts, over 2000 bitcoin were accumulated that day, marking one of the largest one‑day buying events since the instrument’s launch and surpassing prior highs.

Strategy, the world’s largest public corporate holder of Bitcoin, has started to really lean on its Stretch (STRC) perpetual preferred shares to finance additional BTC purchases.

By amending its at‑the‑market program earlier this year, the company enabled multiple agents to sell STRC concurrently, boosting liquidity and enabling significant capital raises specifically earmarked for Bitcoin acquisition.

This latest estimated purchase comes on the heels of a $1.28 billion acquisition of 17,994 BTC announced in a recent SEC filing, which lifted Strategy’s total holdings to approximately 738,731 BTC, or roughly 3.5 % of Bitcoin’s circulating supply. 

That buy was funded through a combination of common stock and STRC issuance, underscoring the firm’s multi‑pronged funding approach.

How does Strategy’s STRC work?

STRC functions as a bridge between traditional income investors, who prefer predictable distributions, and Strategy’s Bitcoin-heavy balance sheet, which carries both long-term asymmetry and short-term volatility. 

The preferred stock’s variable-rate structure maintains demand near its $100 par value while paying a monthly dividend yielding roughly 11.5% annually, effectively translating Bitcoin treasury economics into a format accessible to fixed-income investors.

The combination of record liquidity and low volatility signals a shift in the investor base toward income-focused capital, which stabilizes trading behavior. These trends are early signs of product-market fit: a financial instrument meeting structural demand rather than relying on promotion.

For corporate leaders evaluating Bitcoin treasury strategies, STRC represents a way to add Bitcoin into broader capital structures.

It channels capital from multiple investor classes toward a common strategic reserve, potentially reshaping how companies finance operations and deploy Bitcoin as a structural asset.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading near $71,000 and Strategy’s stock (MSTR) is trading down half a percentage point on the day. 

This post Michael Saylor’s Strategy (MSTR) Estimated To Have Already Bought Over 1,200 Bitcoin Today first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Micah Zimmerman.

Bitcoin Magazine

Bitcoin is Now a Global Financial Player as Institutions Take the Helm: Bitwise

Bitcoin is crossing a structural threshold, evolving from an experimental digital asset into a macro-scale instrument with global capital relevance, according to analysis from Bitwise.

Bitcoin’s market capitalization, liquidity depth, and volatility profile now resemble established macro markets, with price dynamics being shaped by institutional flows rather than retail-driven reflexive cycles.

More than $1 trillion in capital has been absorbed by the Bitcoin network, showing its growing intrinsic value. The protocol continues to function as a high-value settlement system, with trillions of dollars in economically meaningful transfers moving across the base layer in recent years, Bitwise wrote.

Institutional participation has accelerated through US spot ETFs, which began trading on January 11, 2024. These products rapidly realised latent demand for regulated Bitcoin exposure, recording the fastest asset growth in ETF history. 

According to Glassnode and Bitwise data, current holdings in US spot ETFs total 1.26 million BTC, equivalent to roughly 6.3% of circulating supply and $84.9 billion in economic value. 

Net cumulative inflows reached $54.4 billion, suggesting ETFs are absorbing a substantial share of on-chain profit, estimated at close to 9% of realised gains.

The expansion of Bitcoin options markets further signals institutionalisation. Open interest across Deribit and IBIT reached tens of billions of dollars, providing liquid instruments for hedging and yield generation. 

IBIT has gained parity with Deribit, reflecting broader participation from institutions employing options strategies to manage exposure and deploy larger spot positions.

On-chain activity shows structural transformation in investor behaviour. Large transactions above $1 million now dominate total volume, accounting for nearly 69% of all transfers since the November 2022 low. 

Bitcoin’s long-term holders are increasing as price behavior changes

Long-Term Holders, defined as addresses holding coins for more than 155 days, captured 75% of realised profit this cycle, marking a shift from prior cycles where mature holders accounted for roughly half of profit. Coin age analysis indicates older, dormant supply is re-entering circulation, aligning with the phase of mature investor distribution.

Price behavior has also shifted. Bitcoin’s realised volatility has declined, and its drawdown profile now more closely resembles that of major equities, such as the QQQ.

Institutional participants have acted as a structural backstop during stress events, absorbing forced selling and mitigating extreme drawdowns. While the market remains sensitive to shocks, the combination of ETF accumulation, options hedging, and large-scale on-chain flows has created deeper market structure and liquidity.

Recent macro events have tested Bitcoin’s resilience. During geopolitical shocks over the last couple of weeks and market turbulence, BTC traded near $70,000, briefly dipping to $60,000. 

Options positioning reflects cautious rebuilding of exposure, with risk reversals indicating sustained interest in downside protection. 

The macro backdrop, characterised by higher Treasury yields, inflation pressures, and energy market volatility, has created a stagflationary environment, yet Bitcoin has maintained stability relative to traditional high-beta assets, according to analysis from QCP. 

In other words, Bitcoin is moving beyond being just a speculative digital asset. It’s becoming a tool that plays a real role in the global financial system. 

Long-time holders are gradually letting go of coins that have sat untouched for years, while ETFs and other big investors are stepping in to absorb them. 

This shift shows that Bitcoin is increasingly seen as both a reliable store of value and a global settlement network — a sign that its role in finance is evolving for the long term.

This post Bitcoin is Now a Global Financial Player as Institutions Take the Helm: Bitwise first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Micah Zimmerman.

XRP’s price performance is stripping out fast-money participation while leaving behind a more durable class of holders.

According to CryptoSlate's data, XRP is trading at $1.37 as of press time, down 55% within the last six months.

This comes as data from CoinGlass shows XRP's open interest has fallen to about $2.40 billion from a July peak of $10.94 billion, a drop of roughly 78% that leaves positioning at its lowest level since January 2025.

The decline points to a market that has already flushed out much of the speculative leverage that helped power the token’s earlier rally following Donald Trump's 2024 victory.

At the same time, several parts of the XRP market are still showing signs of longer-duration commitment, with significant whale accumulation and transfers away from exchanges.

This is occurring at the same time when spot XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are still holding more than $1 billion worth of the assets in their custody.

Essentially, the XRP support base currently comes from holders who appear more willing to endure volatility, and from Ripple's corporate strategy, which is still broadening the token’s potential access to regulated financial channels.

Leverage has been wrung out of the trade

The first major change in XRP’s market structure is evident in the derivatives market.

Data from CryptoQuant show that open interest across major XRP futures venues has dropped sharply from mid-2025 peaks, while repeated liquidation events have hit leveraged traders.

Binance remains the largest single venue, with current XRP open interest at $222 million, followed by ByBit at $195 million, according to CryptoQuant’s exchange breakdown.

Those levels remain above the lows seen in 2024, but they sit far below the peak conditions that accompanied XRP’s cycle high in July 2025.

CryptoQuant’s liquidation data show that long traders' liquidations have dominated short traders in both number and size.

That pattern usually pulls funding rates lower and leaves the market in a more neutral or defensive posture.

In practical terms, traders who were using leverage to chase upside have already been forced out or have chosen to step back, while those with bearish positioning are enjoying some respite.

Taken together, the data points to a market that has already gone through an extensive deleveraging cycle. That changes the character of the trade.

A sharp reduction in open interest can remove one source of downside pressure because fewer leveraged positions remain exposed to forced liquidations during every fresh drop. It also means any new upside move has to be carried more by spot demand and less by reflexive short-term positioning.

Whales and ETF holders stay put through the drawdown

While speculative positioning has fallen sharply, on-chain and ETF flow data suggest a different cohort has maintained its exposure during the selloff.

For context, data from CryptoQuant shows XRP has seen large exchange outflows during the recent period of market pressure.

On Feb. 6, Binance recorded an outflow of 530 million XRP, worth more than $720 million at the time, when the token traded near $1.37. A second large move followed on Feb. 9, totaling 278 million XRP.

Such transfers usually reduce immediately available exchange supply and are often read as a sign that whales or institutions are moving assets into cold storage or preparing to hold for longer periods.

The signal is useful, though it does not offer a complete answer on its own. Exchange outflows can reflect accumulation, but they can also reflect internal wallet movements or the reshuffling of custody.

Even so, the scale of the Feb. 6 and Feb. 9 moves falls within the same window where ETF traders' conviction in the token remains strong, giving the episode more weight.

On March 10, Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart stated that the XRP spot ETFs have accumulated more than $1.4 billion since launching in November.

Seyffart pointed out that the capital has remained in place even after XRP fell significantly from the $3 level it held just before the ETFs went live.

Bloomberg Intelligence ETF analyst Eric Balchunas wrote on X that the showing was notable given the drawdown.

According to him:

“This is really impressive given these launched into a brutal 45% drawdown. Traditionally, inflows are near impossible for an ETF having a reverse shiny object moment, and especially if they are brand new.”

Balchunas attributed the resilience largely to committed buyers who are “largely XRP superfans versus casual retail.”

That observation fits XRP’s market history. The token has held on to a loyal following of the “XRP Army” through the years of the SEC legal clash and long stretches when broader crypto attention moved elsewhere.

The ETF data suggests that loyalty has carried over into the listed wrapper, where investors often behave differently than they do in spot markets or on leveraged exchanges.

The contrast between collapsing open interest and steady ETF assets gives the current market a distinct tone, suggesting that the base of holders supporting XRP has become less dependent on momentum traders.

Ripple's expanding regulated footprint gives XRP market leverage

Ripple’s continued business expansion is giving XRP an added layer of support, with the company maintaining that the token remains central to its payments, custody, liquidity, and treasury management strategy.

The latest step came on March 11, when Ripple said it had secured an Australian Financial Services License through its acquisition of BC Payments Australia.

That followed recent licensing moves in the UK and Luxembourg, part of a broader effort to extend its regulated footprint globally. Ripple says it now holds more than 75 regulatory licenses worldwide.

At the same time, the company has continued to scale the business infrastructure behind that regulatory reach.

According to Ripple, Ripple Payments is now active in more than 60 major markets and has processed more than $100 billion in volume.

Meanwhile, Ripple is also aggressively expanding its stablecoin business. RLUSD’s market capitalization recently surpassed $1.3 billion, while the company also disclosed conditional approval for an Office of the Comptroller of the Currency charter (OCC).

Notably, the Brad Garlinghouse-led firm has also quietly built a full-stack institutional financial platform that settles, secures, and moves digital money globally.

Garlinghouse also noted that:

“AI is becoming a fundamental part of our products – especially in cash forecasting and liquidity management in real-time for the office of the CFO. Employee productivity may be where AI starts, but the end goal is much bigger.”

Together, those milestones give XRP a support narrative that many large-cap altcoins lack.

While Bitcoin remains the market’s main macro driver, XRP is increasingly trading on a more company-specific story tied to regulated access, cross-border payments, and financial infrastructure.

The post XRP leverage collapses 78%, but $1.4B in ETF money still won’t leave because of Ripple’s expanding footprint appeared first on CryptoSlate.

Binance returns to Iran sanctions scrutiny after its $4.3 billion U.S. plea

The Justice Department is reportedly probing Iran’s use of Binance to evade sanctions, pulling the world’s largest crypto exchange back into a national security case less than three years after it pleaded guilty in the U.S. and agreed to a resolution worth more than $4.3 billion.

The clearest fact at the outset is the contradiction. Binance already admitted to sanctions and anti-money-laundering failures in 2023.

It accepted penalties, a monitor, and years of U.S. oversight. Now prosecutors are reportedly examining alleged Iran-linked activity that earlier Wall Street Journal reporting said Binance’s own investigators had flagged internally.

The most concrete detail in that earlier report is the alleged route. More than $1 billion was reportedly tied to Blessed Trust, and about $1.7 billion in suspect transfers was allegedly identified overall.

One key account was reportedly marked “internal.” Those details raise questions about how intermediary accounts were handled and how internal controls were applied when investigators reviewed activity connected to Iranian entities and proxies.

Binance disputes that account. The company said its review found no sanctions violations, that the entities in question were investigated and offboarded, and that no Iran-based entities transacted directly on the platform.

Binance also filed a defamation suit over the coverage, turning a compliance dispute into an active courtroom fight.

The central question is whether the largest offshore venue in crypto still has weaknesses in the parts of its business regulators examine most closely under sanctions law.

Crypto can be misused in many settings, but this case centers on whether controls introduced after the 2023 plea were strong enough to detect and stop activity linked to Iran.

That is a direct test of the credibility Binance has tried to rebuild with users, counterparties, and regulators since the U.S. settlement and founder Changpeng Zhao's pardon.

The scale raises the stakes well beyond a public relations problem. Kaiko research showed Binance reached 300 million registered accounts in December 2025 and processed more than $20 billion in daily spot volume across 1,630 trading pairs.

Separate market share data from CoinGecko put Binance at 38.3% of centralized exchange spot activity in December 2025, with $361.8 billion in monthly spot volume that month and $7.3 trillion across 2025.

Exchange data showed about $10.0 billion in 24-hour spot volume and $151.2 billion in reported reserve assets. When a venue that large reenters an Iran sanctions case, the issue extends to offshore price discovery, settlement, and market-making across the wider sector.

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What current prices show, and what they do not

Current price action points to legal-risk pricing, with no sign of panic yet. CryptoSlate market data showed Bitcoin at $69,909, down 1.17% over 24 hours and 2.01% over seven days, while BNB traded at $643, down 0.59% over 24 hours and 1.15% over seven days.

Over 30 days, Bitcoin was up 1.12%, and BNB was up 2.65%. Bitcoin dominance stood at 58%, a sign the market still leans toward the deepest and most liquid asset while treating Binance-specific risk as separate from Bitcoin’s institutional position.

That split matters for market structure. Bitcoin’s role in ETF portfolios and large institutional allocations does not automatically move with confidence in offshore exchanges.

Users and trading firms can cut exposure to exchange-linked risk without abandoning Bitcoin itself. They can rebalance between venues, trim exposure to exchange-linked tokens, or reduce activity in pairs that depend more heavily on offshore liquidity.

BNB remains the cleaner pressure valve because it sits closer to Binance’s brand and business. With a market cap of $87.75 billion, BNB is far smaller than Bitcoin and can absorb reputational stress more abruptly if the legal dispute produces visible user behavior.

No public reserve cliff has emerged so far. No sharp break in spot share data has surfaced, and no broad counterparty retreat is visible in the available market snapshot.

Even so, confidence can shift quickly once users decide to diversify balances across venues.

The scale of any balance migration is already large in dollar terms. Using Binance’s disclosed assets of about $150.36 billion, a 2% shift would equal roughly $3 billion.

A 5% shift would equal about $7.5 billion, and a 10% shift would equal about $15 billion. Those figures are scenario markers, not predictions.

They show the size of the balance base that could move if the dispute widens from legal scrutiny into a trust problem among users, market makers, and trading firms.

Those same ranges also help frame trading activity. Against Binance’s current 24-hour spot volume of about $10 billion, a 2% asset shift would equal about 30% of one day’s turnover.

A 5% move would equal about 75%, and a 10% move would equal about 150%. The comparison is imperfect because reserves and daily volume measure different things, but it gives readers a concrete sense of how quickly a legal dispute can overlap with exchange liquidity if behavior changes.

There is also a legal limit on what can be stated today. The report did not establish whether prosecutors are examining Binance itself, specific users, intermediary accounts, or some combination of them.

That distinction shapes the whole case. A probe centered on customer misuse would still be serious.

A probe that shifts toward whether Binance enabled or failed to stop the activity after the 2023 plea would carry much heavier consequences.

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Nov 17, 2025 · Liam 'Akiba' Wright

Why the Iran angle extends beyond Binance

The broader enforcement backdrop suggests U.S. agencies are already focused on crypto routes tied to Iran. On Jan. 30, the Treasury Department designated Zedcex and Zedxion, two UK-registered digital asset exchanges tied to Iranian sanctions evasion and the IRGC.

Treasury said Zedcex had processed more than $94 billion in transactions. That action shows regulators are examining venues, intermediary companies, and cross-border settlement networks rather than limiting their attention to isolated wallet addresses.

Blockchain data points in the same direction. TRM Labs research said stablecoin activity exceeded $1 trillion in monthly transaction volume multiple times in 2025.

It also said illicit entities received about $141 billion through stablecoin wallets, with sanctions-related activity accounting for 86% of all illicit crypto flows in 2025.

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Those figures put stablecoins near the center of sanctions-linked crypto activity and help explain why alleged Binance activity connected to Iran draws attention well beyond one exchange.

Iran’s own crypto market structure reinforces that point. A separate TRM Labs analysis said Nobitex handled more than 87% of Iranian crypto volume in 2025 and processed about $3 billion.

About $2 billion moved over TRON, mainly in TRC-20 USDT and TRX. Regulators following sanctions evasion through digital assets are therefore likely to focus on stablecoins, partner entities, and chain-specific settlement corridors that can support trade and transfers at scale.

Activity in Washington over the past few weeks fits that broader pattern. Sen. Richard Blumenthal opened an inquiry on Feb. 24 that cited the reported $1.7 billion in transfers, the alleged roles of Blessed Trust and Hexa Whale, and roughly 2,000 accounts associated with Iranian entities.

Senate Banking Democrats then pressed Treasury and DOJ on Feb. 27 to investigate Binance over sanctions and illicit-finance concerns.

Those steps do not prove prosecutors will act against Binance. Pressure has, however, shifted from media reporting to formal questions within the U.S. enforcement system.

Binance’s defense remains significant. The company said exposure to wallets linked to illicit activity fell nearly 97% from early 2024 to mid-2025, including a 97.3% reduction in exposure to major Iranian crypto exchanges.

It also said there were no direct transactions involving Iran-based entities on Binance. If that account holds up, the dispute could narrow to intermediaries, offboarding decisions, and whether published claims overstated what internal reviews actually found.

The lawsuit filed today is meant to push that dispute into discovery and court filings.

Markets reprice risk on uncertainty, reassessing whether Binance’s offshore dominance still deserves the same trust premium.

At the moment, the most likely path is a prolonged probe with limited immediate market damage. A softer outcome would keep the focus on users or intermediaries and leave balance migration below roughly 2% of disclosed assets, or about $3 billion.

A harsher outcome would shift attention toward Binance itself, pressure counterparties, and push migration into the 2% to 5% range, or roughly $3 billion to $7.5 billion.

A low-probability shock would involve direct action touching linked entities or routes and could force more than 10% of disclosed assets, or more than $15 billion, to move or be repositioned.

The next set of public facts should clarify whether this dispute stays in the zone of reporting, denial, and litigation or develops into a visible market event.

The most important signals are reserve changes, spot share shifts, BNB weakness versus Bitcoin, and any steps by DOJ, Treasury, FinCEN, or OFAC that put names and allegations behind the current scrutiny.

For now, the clearest point remains unchanged. Binance already paid to resolve one major U.S. sanctions and AML case, and it is now back under fresh Iran-linked scrutiny while trying to fight the allegations in court.

The post DOJ probes Binance again over Iran-linked crypto flows after $4.3B settlement and CZ pardon appeared first on CryptoSlate.

An Oil Scare Near Hormuz Showed How Fast Bitcoin Reverts to a Risk Trade

While Bitcoin has rebounded and held above $70,000 over the last 48 hours, the acute phase of the latest oil shock showed the market’s first instinct: sell crypto when inflation fear rises, and the path to easier money gets harder.

Still, why does the price of oil even matter for Bitcoin? Few Bitcoin miners use oil to power machines, so shouldn't Bitcoin be detached from energy volatility?

Well, on March 9, Bitcoin fell to a seven-day low as Brent crude surged and traders cut exposure across risk assets.

You see, energy pricing is a major factor in determining inflation, which Bitcoin is meant to be a hedge against. That axiom, however, has become a long-running debate.

The move did not settle whether Bitcoin can protect holders from inflation over the long term. It did, however, clarify something narrower and more immediate.

In the first phase of a war-driven oil scare, traders treated Bitcoin like a liquidity-sensitive macro asset rather than a refuge. Fresh attacks near the Strait of Hormuz and the threat of wider shipping disruption pushed oil higher before any fully confirmed physical closure of the route.

The Strait of Hormuz still carries about 20 million barrels a day of oil and oil products and nearly 20% of global LNG trade.

The surge lifted the energy risk premium, revived inflation concerns, and hardened the market’s view that central banks may have less room to ease.

The direct Bitcoin link appeared in both price action and flows.

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of $227.9 million on March 5 and $348.9 million on March 6. Flows then flipped to inflows of $167.1 million on March 9 and $246.9 million on March 10 as oil cooled and reserve-release discussions gained traction.

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Bitcoin’s market cap fell from about $1.453 trillion on March 5 to about $1.322 trillion on March 9, a roughly $131 billion drop. By March 11, the asset had rebounded to around $70,200, up about 0.9% over 24 hours, 1.3% over seven days, and 2.0% over 30 days.

It's now clear that real-world inflation panic, especially when it arrives through oil and shipping risk, still pushes Bitcoin to trade like a risk asset first.

The rebound indicates the selloff belonged to the acute shock window, when traders reacted to higher energy costs, tighter financial conditions, and a rapid repricing of macro risk.

Hormuz Still Hits Bitcoin Even if the U.S. Does Not Need Many of Its Barrels

The United States does not need to import large volumes of crude through Hormuz for Bitcoin to feel the shock. EIA data shows the U.S. imported about 0.5 million barrels a day of crude and condensate through the strait in 2024, equal to roughly 2% of U.S. petroleum liquids consumption.

The familiar “America is energy independent” shorthand, therefore, offers limited guidance in this situation. Physical dependence is low, but financial exposure remains significant.

Hormuz remains the world’s primary oil chokepoint.

The IEA estimates flows through the strait at roughly 20 million barrels a day in 2025, about a quarter of global seaborne oil trade. Bypass capacity is only about 3.5 million to 5.5 million barrels a day.

The route also carries LNG exports from Qatar and the UAE equal to nearly one-fifth of global LNG trade. Asia absorbs most of that exposure. EIA data shows about 84% of Hormuz crude and condensate flows and 83% of LNG flows move to Asian markets.

However, benchmark pricing does not remain confined to Asia. Brent resets globally, as do freight costs, insurance pricing, airline fuel assumptions, and inflation expectations.

Those pricing shifts reach Bitcoin through macro channels.

When oil rises quickly, traders begin pricing in stickier inflation and less urgency for rate cuts.

U.S. five-year breakeven inflation rose from 2.46% on March 4 to 2.56% on March 6 and March 9, before easing slightly to 2.53% on March 10.

We're talking about market expectations here, not the final verdict on inflation, and they shifted before any full physical shortage at the pump appeared.

The timing is important.

The latest U.S. CPI data, at 2.4% year-over-year, largely predates the latest oil shock.

Yet, the war now keeps the issue alive ahead of the March 17–18 Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

If oil holds in the high $80s or $90s instead of retreating, inflation expectations may shift again. That environment makes it harder for policymakers to signal easier financial conditions, and speculative trades tend to react quickly.

Bitcoin sits within that category.

The asset still benefits from long-run scarcity narratives and periodic distrust of fiat systems. During an abrupt oil scare, however, traders often reduce positions in liquid and volatile assets first.

Shipping risk can therefore tighten Bitcoin’s macro backdrop before any American refinery faces a crude shortage.

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The ETF Wrapper Has Made the Macro Transmission Faster and Easier to Read

March volatility also highlighted how much Bitcoin’s market structure has changed. The ETF era has not insulated crypto from macro stress. Instead, it has made the impact easier to measure in real time.

When the oil scare intensified, money left U.S. spot products quickly. When pressure eased, the same wrapper showed buyers returning just as rapidly.

This provides a clearer signal than older exchange-based narratives centered on offshore leverage or crypto-native sentiment.

The sequence is straightforward. On March 5 and March 6, net flows across U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs were sharply negative. By March 9 and March 10, those flows had turned positive again.

The reversal followed the same macro pattern visible in oil. Risk assets sold off amid rising inflation fears, then recovered after discussions about reserve releases and signs of de-escalation eased pressure.

IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said all options, including emergency stock releases, were discussed. Member countries hold more than 1.2 billion barrels of public emergency reserves plus another 600 million barrels of industry stocks under government obligation.

The possibility of reserve releases helped establish a potential ceiling for the most extreme oil outcomes. That shift encouraged buyers to return to Bitcoin.

The initial reaction resembled a conventional sell-the-risk trade; it also carried a measurable cost.

The roughly $131.5 billion decline in Bitcoin’s market cap between March 5 and March 9 provides a concrete measure of how quickly an external shipping shock can erase value from crypto markets.

The market recovered part of that decline once crude prices cooled. Even so, the drawdown highlighted Bitcoin’s sensitivity to the same inflation and interest-rate dynamics that affect high-beta equities.

The oil surge also puts pressure on gasoline, travel, and household budgets. In the U.K., the OBR warned the crisis could push inflation to 3% by the end of 2026, one percentage point above its earlier projection.

One narrow waterway can therefore influence fuel costs, inflation expectations, central-bank policy signals, and Bitcoin demand within the same week.

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What Traders Need to Watch Before the Fed Meets

The next phase depends on several immediate variables.

Traders should monitor whether attacks on commercial shipping continue, whether insurers and tanker operators avoid the route, and whether emergency stock discussions turn into formal action.

Also, whether Brent holds in the high $80s and $90s or falls further, and whether ETF inflows remain positive.

The March 17–18 FOMC meeting is the next major checkpoint.

It will not resolve the oil market, but it could clarify whether policymakers treat the latest energy shock as temporary noise or a complication for the easing path.

EIA’s base case still points to lower oil later in the year. Its March outlook projects Brent averaging $91 in the second quarter of 2026 before falling to $70 in the fourth quarter and $64 in 2027. The forecast assumes global inventories rise by 1.9 million barrels a day in 2026 and 3.0 million barrels a day in 2027.

Standard Chartered, by contrast, raised its 2026 Brent average forecast to $70 from $63.50, citing upside risk if conflict damages production or shipping further.

JPMorgan has warned that if Hormuz remains effectively closed for more than 25 days, storage constraints could force Gulf producers into shut-ins, or involuntary production stoppages.

That range leaves multiple possible outcomes.

The base case assumes disruption without catastrophe, enough tension to keep inflation expectations elevated but not enough to trigger a sustained collapse in flows.

A bullish outcome for Bitcoin would involve oil retreating further, stronger confidence that reserves can cap prices, and steady ETF inflows.

A bearish outcome would involve renewed attacks, persistent shipping avoidance, and crude moving back toward triple digits.

The tail risk involves a prolonged effective closure that forces production shut-ins across Gulf producers and keeps the inflation impulse alive long enough to shift policy expectations more sharply.

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For now, the clearest take is that the inflation-hedge narrative faced a real-time test.

Inflation concerns driven by oil prompted traders to sell Bitcoin during the initial shock.

The rebound above $70,000 shows how quickly sentiment can reverse once crude prices cool and supply fears ease.

The next test arrives with the Fed meeting on March 17–18, and any developments affecting shipping through Hormuz.

If oil remains elevated, the tension between Bitcoin’s hedge narrative and its behavior as a macro risk asset will remain unresolved.

The post Why oil panic hitting global markets caused traders to dump Bitcoin instead of hiding in it appeared first on CryptoSlate.

Kalshi's first move outside the United States is not London, not Singapore, not any of the financial centers that have spent years building crypto-friendly regulatory frameworks.

It is Brazil, through XP International and its brokerage arm, Clear, offering prediction markets to Brazilian investors as a “new asset class” anchored at launch to economic events such as inflation prints and interest rate decisions.

The company frames the product as a federally regulated derivative rather than a bet.
Brazil's government frames what it is already dealing with as a public health emergency.
Both things can be true. The tension between them is the story.

What Kalshi and XP actually built

The Mar. 9 announcement describes prediction markets as “derivative financial instruments” under the CFTC's regulatory framework.

Access begins with Clear clients who already hold international investment accounts through XP International. Bloomberg reported the initial contracts center on Brazilian macro variables, such as IPCA inflation and Selic rate decisions, rather than sports outcomes or electoral results.

That product framing matters: Kalshi's entry pitch is macro-first, brokerage-distributed, and aimed at an investor base that already navigates international markets.

XP is not a niche vehicle for this. The firm reported 4.762 million active clients, R$1.491 trillion in client assets, and 18,000 advisors as of the fourth quarter of 2025.

Kalshi's cofounder cited the logic directly: international partners “already have the customers” and “the brand.” The distribution math explains the geography before any cultural argument is made.

The country Kalshi is entering

Brazil spent 2025 building anti-addiction infrastructure at the national scale.

The Finance Ministry blocked more than 25,000 illegal betting sites that year. The government's centralized self-exclusion platform received more than 217,000 self-blocking requests in its first 40 days of operation.

The amount is equivalent to 73% of users choosing indefinite blocks, and 37% explicitly cited loss of control or mental health as the reason.

Brazil's Health Ministry launched a betting health observatory, a dedicated line of care for gambling-related harms, and tele-mental-health support beginning in February 2026, with 20,000 professionals in training.

The prevalence data behind these moves is not soft.

A LENAD-based study reported by FAPESP found roughly 10.9 million Brazilians over age 14 gamble in ways that harm their finances, family life, or mental health, with about 1.4 million fitting a more severe gambling disorder profile.

Brazil's Justice Ministry put it more bluntly: 38.6% of people who participate in betting show some degree of addiction risk or disorder, a figure that climbs to 55.2% among adolescents aged 14 to 17.

Brazil's Central Bank documented 24 million people making at least one Pix transfer to betting firms between January and August 2024, with monthly flows later revised upward to as much as R$30 billion in 2025.

The country Kalshi is entering already treats binary event speculation at mass retail scale as a consumer protection problem that requires government infrastructure to contain it.

Why 2026 makes the contradiction visible

The launch calendar accelerates the tension without requiring Kalshi to have planned it that way.
Brazil's general election runs on Oct. 4, with a runoff on Oct. 25 if needed. The 2026 FIFA World Cup runs from Jun. 11 through Jul. 19.

Kalshi's first foreign market is now live in the year most saturated with exactly the binary, high-stakes, headline-driven events that prediction market platforms typically monetize most.

Kalshi has not announced any election or sports contracts for Brazil, and the official rollout language remains macro.

However, the brokerage infrastructure now exists, the distribution partner has nearly five million active clients, and the product category has already demonstrated that event contract volume can scale rapidly when the public perceives an election outcome as genuinely uncertain.

Whether Kalshi expands its Brazilian contract menu toward those events is a product decision, not a foregone conclusion. The surrounding conditions make the contradictions harder to contain, if they do.

The economics that the “Market of Truth” pitch skips

Prediction markets carry an idealistic intellectual framing, surrounding Vitalik Buterin's “info finance” thesis, the idea that contract prices aggregate dispersed knowledge into useful probability estimates.

Academic work on Kalshi's own contracts adds friction to that story.

A CEPR analysis of more than 300,000 Kalshi contracts found that prices become more informative as expiry approaches, but also a favorite longshot bias, and that makers consistently outperform takers. The average pre-fee contract returns are around -20%, and the average after-fee returns are around -22%.

On Polygon-based Polymarket, a Dune dashboard shows on-chain wallet-level analysis of roughly 1.7 million addresses found about 70% realized losses, with profits heavily concentrated. This is equivalent to fewer than 0.04% of accounts capturing more than 70% of total realized gains, approximately $3.7 billion.

That data describes a user economics structure in which retail participants lose at rates consistent with negative sum speculation, and in which gains concentrate at the top of the participant distribution.

Brazil's regulators did not build a national self-exclusion system and block 25,000 websites because that description sounded unfamiliar.

The bet Kalshi is making on Brazil

The bull case for this launch is coherent: Brazil's macro environment in early 2026 is genuinely “tradable” in binary form.

The Central Bank's Mar. 6 Focus survey showed median 2026 expectations for IPCA at 3.91%, GDP growth at 1.82%, and the Selic rate at 12.13%, with active market debate over whether the March Copom meeting would deliver a 25- or 50-basis-point cut.

Interest rate and inflation contracts on a platform like Kalshi, distributed through an investment brokerage to clients who already think in portfolio terms, look more like structured macro exposure than a sportsbook.

The bear case is that the brokerage wrapper does not permanently insulate the product from the regulatory and reputational environment in which it operates.

If contract scope broadens during a World Cup year and an election year, in a country where the state already frames event-driven retail speculation as a public health issue, the “regulated derivative” label absorbs pressure from both sides.

The pressure will come from Brazilian regulators looking for jurisdictional footholds, and from US regulators who have watched state gaming authorities challenge Kalshi's not-gambling classification in domestic courts.

Kalshi is betting that distribution through a brokerage, a macro-first product frame, and a CFTC regulatory backstory are enough to keep the product in a different legal and cultural category than what Brazil is already fighting.

Brazil's own infrastructure is built on the premise that the category distinction breaks down in practice at scale.

One of them is right. The answer will be visible in Brazil by the end of the year.

The post Kalshi’s Brazil prediction market launch lands in a country already fighting a betting addiction crisis appeared first on CryptoSlate.

The infrastructure race for agentic commerce is already producing winners.

Anthropic's Model Context Protocol now runs on more than 10,000 public servers and pulls 97 million monthly SDK downloads, connecting AI applications to external tools and data.

Google's Agent-to-Agent protocol launched in April 2025 with 50 partners and scaled to more than 100 supporting companies before moving under Linux Foundation governance.

On Jan. 11, Google unveiled the Universal Commerce Protocol, pulling in Shopify, Walmart, Target, Mastercard, Stripe, Visa, and American Express as early supporters, aiming to standardize how agents navigate live checkout flows.

Coinbase's x402 protocol handles the payment transport layer, enabling automatic stablecoin payments over HTTP. The project reported more than 100 million payments processed across APIs, apps, and AI agents by late 2025.

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That is a lot of standardization for a technology category that barely existed three years ago.

However, every one of those protocols addresses the same narrow slice: how agents connect, coordinate, and initiate payments.

None of them answers the harder commercial question sitting one step further down the stack: Who decides the work was actually done?

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Escrow as the missing primitive

ERC-8183, a draft Ethereum standard published Feb. 25, is crypto's attempt to make that judgment programmable.

Strip the jargon, and the proposal is a minimal state machine for task-based commerce: a client locks the budget into escrow, a provider submits work, and an evaluator marks the job complete or rejects it.

Expiry refunds the client automatically. The spec calls this sequence: Open, Funded, Submitted, Terminal. Additionally, it explicitly states that the evaluator alone may mark a job as completed once work lands.

That architecture is narrower than its “agentic commerce” framing implies.

Critics in the Ethereum Magicians discussion thread pointed out that there is “nothing especially ‘agentic'” about the proposal. One commenter called it “a job registry with escrowed funds.”

The critique is accurate, and also the most useful thing about the story.

What ERC-8183 actually specifies is a programmable escrow primitive applicable to any task-based transaction, human or machine.

The AI framing is layered on top of a structure that predates agents entirely. The more interesting question is whether that structure is the one piece the stack currently lacks.

The authorization-verification gap

The payments incumbents building around agentic commerce are solving authorization, not verification.

Google's Agent Payment Protocol frames payments around cryptographically signed mandates that prove what an agent was permitted to spend.

Mastercard's Verifiable Intent, co-developed with Google and introduced on Mar. 5, creates a trust layer for proving what a user authorized and an audit trail designed for dispute resolution.

Those are robust answers to “Was this purchase sanctioned?” They say nothing about whether the purchased outcome materialized.

That gap is the productive contradiction in the stack.

A2A ensures agents can talk across organizational boundaries. MCP ensures they can reach the right tools and data. AP2 and x402 ensure money moves automatically. ERC-8183 proposes that the funds be held conditionally until an evaluator attests that the deliverable has cleared.

Whether that evaluator is the client, an oracle network, a staking system, or a zkML proof is left to implementers, but the spec explicitly names ERC-8004's trust and reputation layer as the recommended composition point for higher-value jobs.

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The power center nobody named

The evaluator role is where the proposal becomes politically interesting.

ERC-8183's security section warns that a malicious evaluator can arbitrarily complete or reject jobs, recommends reputation or staking mechanisms for higher-value contracts, and acknowledges that there is no dispute resolution within the core spec.

One builder in the Magicians thread wrote that “the Evaluator is where the real complexity lives.” Another summarized the broader problem as “everyone verifies the payment, nobody verifies the work.”

Those observations point to a structural dynamic in any open agent marketplace: whoever controls evaluation controls the marketplace.

The spec's design makes the tension explicit.

For enterprise deployments where the client and evaluator are the same entity, the complexity is manageable. For multi-party agent networks where a provider in one organization submits work to a client in another, the evaluator becomes a trust bottleneck with platform-level leverage.

ERC-8183 names the choke point without yet having a durable answer for it.

Where the stack actually stands

The adoption numbers suggest the surrounding layers are moving faster than verification.

Gartner says 33% of enterprise software applications will include agentic AI by 2028, and 15% of day-to-day work decisions will run autonomously by that year, up from 0% in 2024.

Deloitte pegs the global agentic AI market at $8.5 billion in 2026, rising toward $35 billion by 2030, with 75% of companies potentially investing in the category by the end of this year.

IBM and NRF reported in January that 45% of consumers already use AI during buying journeys, including 41% for product research.

That volume of agentic activity needs settlement infrastructure.

The bull case for ERC-8183 and its surrounding stack is that open agent marketplaces, covering research, code, inference, data, and microservices, generate enough cross-organizational, machine-to-machine commerce that on-chain conditional settlement becomes genuinely necessary.

The bear case is that payments incumbents and enterprise software absorb the verification problem before crypto builds a durable wedge.

AP2's cryptographic mandates, Verifiable Intent's authorization audit trail, and UCP's live retailer integrations are already positioning card networks and Big Tech at exactly the layer that ERC-8183 targets from the other direction.

Who owns the judgment layer

If Gartner's 2028 projections hold, and agentic AI handles a meaningful share of enterprise procurement, research outsourcing, and service buying, the highest-margin position in that stack will not be held by the model provider.

It will belong to whoever owns the moment of conditional payment, which is the infrastructure that holds funds, attests to outcomes, and releases money only when the work clears verification.

ERC-8183 may be that layer, or it may be marketplace escrow wearing better branding.

The Magicians thread is right that the underlying structure predates AI entirely. Yet the same holds for most financial primitives that turned out to matter.

Escrow predates the internet. Conditional payment predates blockchains.

The theory being stress-tested right now is whether the verification problem in agentic commerce is best solved by Big Tech's authorization standards or by programmable on-chain escrow with composable trust layers.

Both approaches are live, neither is settled, and the answer will likely depend on where agents are doing the most economically meaningful work when adoption crosses the threshold that makes the infrastructure fight worth having.

The post Is crypto needed to protect the security of AI agents paying each other online? appeared first on CryptoSlate.

Payments giant Mastercard has officially launched its Global Crypto Partner Program, a massive initiative designed to weave blockchain technology directly into the fabric of traditional global banking. This is not just another pilot; the program unites over 85 high-profile companies to standardize how digital assets move across the world’s existing financial rails.

What is the Crypto Partner Program?

The Mastercard Crypto Partner Program is a unified integration framework. Unlike previous one-off partnerships, this initiative provides a set of technical and compliance standards that allow crypto-native firms to connect their on-chain tools to Mastercard’s network. It leverages the Mastercard Multi-Token Network (MTN) to handle tokenized deposits and stablecoins, aiming to make blockchain "invisible" to the end user while providing the speed of digital assets.

Solving the "Plumbing" Problem

For years, the friction between "crypto" and "banks" has been the primary barrier to adoption. Mastercard is addressing this by focusing on three specific pillars:

• Cross-Border Remittances: Bypassing the slow SWIFT network to settle international transfers in minutes using stablecoins like USDC.
• Mastercard Crypto Credential: Replacing complex wallet addresses with human-readable aliases (e.g., user.mastercard) to reduce send-errors.
• Real-Time Settlement: Enabling merchants to receive fiat instantly while the consumer pays from a self-custodial wallet like MetaMask.

Who is Involved in the Global Crypto Partner Program?

The program features an "Avengers-level" lineup of industry leaders. Key partners confirmed include:

• Infrastructure & Settlement: Ripple, Circle, and Paxos.
• Payments & Wallets: PayPal, Gemini, and MetaMask.
• Global Exchanges: Binance, Crypto.com, and Bitget.

Why This Matters Now

According to reports from The Block, Mastercard believes the "next phase of on-chain payments will be built through collaboration." By bringing 85+ firms under one roof, they are effectively creating a "Common Language" for money. This move follows the recent integration of SoFiUSD for card settlement, signaling that the company is moving aggressively to dominate the $300 billion stablecoin settlement market.

XRP Price Prediction: Why the $2.00 Level is the Next Major Target

Current market data suggests that a return to the $2 level is a high-probability target supported by record-low exchange liquidity, massive spot ETF inflows, and the integration of the $XRP Ledger into global financial infrastructure. As of March 11, 2026, XRP is trading in a "coil" formation that often precedes a violent breakout. Breaking above the 200-day Moving Average is the technical trigger required to turn this psychological resistance into a launchpad for further gains.

Understanding XRP Liquidity Magnets and Market Structure

To understand the $2 target, one must look at market structure and liquidity magnets. In trading, a "liquidity magnet" refers to a price zone where a large cluster of orders (often liquidations) resides. For XRP, the $2.00 to $2.20 range represents a massive area of short-position liquidations. If the price of $XRP moves into this zone, a "short squeeze" could rapidly accelerate the rally beyond previous resistance levels.

1. Institutional Infrastructure: The Ripple Prime Effect

The most significant fundamental driver for XRP in 2026 is its transition from a speculative asset to a core piece of financial infrastructure. Following its acquisition of several fintech firms in 2025, Ripple has launched Ripple Prime, a unified institutional platform.

On March 2, 2026, it was revealed that Ripple Prime's integration with major clearing houses has begun routing institutional post-trade volumes directly onto the XRP Ledger. This provides a fundamental "floor" for the price as the network begins processing real-world transaction volume rather than just retail speculation.

2. Institutional Inflows via Spot XRP ETFs

Since the landmark approval of Spot XRP ETFs, institutional adoption has accelerated. As of this week, XRP ETFs have surpassed $1.44 billion in cumulative inflows. Notably, banking giants like Goldman Sachs have emerged as top holders, signaling that the "smart money" is positioning for long-term appreciation.

According to recent reports from Nasdaq, the elimination of the SEC legal overhang in late 2025 allowed conservative wealth managers to finally include XRP in their digital asset portfolios. This persistent buying effectively reduces the circulating supply on exchanges, creating a supply-demand imbalance that favors the bulls.

3. Technical Breakout and Symmetrical Triangle Compression

From a technical standpoint, XRP is currently testing the apex of a massive symmetrical triangle on the daily chart. Historically, such compressions lead to significant price expansions.

• RSI Bullish Divergence: While price has stayed flat, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is making higher lows, suggesting hidden strength.
• Exchange Balances: XRP held on centralized exchanges has hit a 3-year low, according to CryptoQuant data.
• Network Activity: The XRP Ledger recently hit 2.7 million daily transactions, a record high that proves network utility is outpacing price action.

XRP Resistance Levels and Support Zones for 2026

To track the progress toward the $2 target, investors should monitor the following support and resistance zones:

XRP Future Outlook: The Impact of the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act

While the path to $2 seems clear, investors must remain aware of broader macro risks. The upcoming US Digital Asset Market Clarity Act vote later this month will be the final piece of the puzzle. A "Yes" vote would provide the ultimate regulatory green light, likely triggering the final surge past $2.00.

The landscape of digital assets in 2026 is unrecognizable from the "wild west" era of a few years ago. While Bitcoin has reached psychological milestones above $70,000, the broader ecosystem of independent crypto projects is struggling for air. The "hidden truth" behind this stagnation isn't just a lack of funding; it is a fundamental shift in who the market is built for.

The 2026 Stagnation: A Market in Transition

As of March 2026, the crypto industry is grappling with the aftermath of the late 2025 "liquidity flush," which saw over $20 billion in leverage wiped out in a single month. This event, often called the 2026 Crypto Crisis, forced a pivot from speculative retail-driven growth to a more rigid, institutional-grade structure.

Recent data suggests that while the $Bitcoin price remains resilient due to ETF inflows, nearly 80% of new blockchain startups fail within their first year. The era of "launch now, fix later" has been replaced by a "stagnation" where projects simply cannot gain traction without massive corporate backing.

1. The Death of Retail "Degen" Culture

The most visible reason for project failure in 2026 is the Retail Investor Exodus. For years, small-scale investors fueled the fire of decentralized finance (DeFi) and NFTs. Today, that fire has dimmed for three primary reasons:

1. Aversion to Leverage: After the 2025 crash, retail traders have largely moved their capital back to traditional equities or "safe-haven" assets like tokenized gold (XAUT).
2. The Yield Trap: Regulatory crackdowns on stablecoin interest, such as the proposed Digital Asset Market Clarity Act in the US, have made it harder for independent protocols to offer the "passive income" that once attracted millions.
3. Institutional Domination: Retail participants now feel like "exit liquidity" for Venture Capital (VC) firms. Most new tokens launch with "low float, high FDV" (Fully Diluted Valuation), leaving no room for retail profit.

2. The MiCA Effect: Compliance as a Barrier

In Europe, the full implementation of the Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulation has been a double-edged sword. While it provides a professional exchange environment, it has effectively priced out the "garage developer."

"MiCA's licensing costs and rigorous whitepaper requirements act as a filter. It weeds out scams, but it also smothers the small, innovative teams that don't have $500,000 for legal compliance." — Industry Insight, March 2026.

Startups are now forced to choose between expensive compliance or operating in "offshore" shadows that institutional capital—and savvy retail—will no longer touch.

3. Corporate "Colonization" of Web3

The hidden truth of the 2026 stagnation is that crypto technology is succeeding, but crypto "projects" are failing. Big banks and corporations have successfully "unbundled" blockchain. Instead of using public, decentralized protocols, they are building private, permissioned versions of the same tech.

• Asset Tokenization: Real World Assets (RWAs) are moving onto the blockchain, but they are managed by entities like BlackRock and Goldman Sachs, not decentralized DAOs.
• Stablecoin Utility: Stablecoins have become the "Internet's dollar," yet the market is dominated by centralized issuers who work closely with central banks.

4. Technical Debt and "Zombie" Chains

Thousands of projects are currently "mostly dead" because they were built on foundations that cannot scale or lack a real use case. Many 2021-era blockchains have become "Zombie Chains"—networks with high theoretical value but zero organic traffic. The market is currently undergoing an aggressive consolidation where only 5-10 major "hub" chains will likely survive.

Is There a Way Out?

The stagnation of 2026 isn't the end of crypto; it is the end of the "hobbyist" era. Projects that survive this period are those that prioritize Sustainable Revenue over token inflation and Real-World Utility over Discord hype.

It is up to creators, enthusiasts, small startups, and individuals to create and innovate more in this space. Only then, would we be able to see a new breakthrough in crypto and web3.

While the broader crypto market often thrives on volatility, Bitcoin ($BTC) has recently entered a period of relative calm that has left many long-term holders checking their screens in boredom. Over the past 30 days, the Bitcoin price has seen a negligible drop of only 0.9%. However, beneath this surface-level stability lies a high-stakes tug-of-war between bulls and bears, with prices oscillating sharply between $63,000 and $73,000.

For "HODLers," this sideways movement feels like a standstill. For active traders, however, this range-bound environment has become a goldmine for "buy low, sell high" strategies. Understanding why the king of crypto is moving horizontally is essential for navigating the current market cycle.

Why is Bitcoin Moving Sideways?

Market consolidation is rarely a random event; it is a sign of equilibrium where neither buyers nor sellers have enough momentum to force a breakout. As of March 11, 2026, three primary factors are pinning the price down.

1. Macroeconomic Uncertainty and the "Wait-and-See" Approach

The global financial landscape in early 2026 is dominated by mixed signals. With US CPI data looming and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East fluctuating, institutional investors have moved into a defensive posture. According to J.P. Morgan Global Research, the probability of a global recession remains a "sticky" theme for the year.

When the macro environment is foggy, liquidity tends to stay on the sidelines. $Bitcoin, often acting as a high-beta risk asset, struggles to find the "fuel" needed for a rally beyond $74,000 until there is more clarity on Federal Reserve interest rate cuts or a de-escalation in global conflicts.

2. Spot ETF Inflow Fatigue

After the massive surge of institutional interest in 2024 and 2025, the "ETF honeymoon phase" has reached a plateau. While Spot Bitcoin ETFs are still seeing net positive inflows—roughly $735 million so far this month—it is no longer the overwhelming wave that characterized previous rallies.

This steady but moderate inflow is enough to keep Bitcoin from crashing below the $60,000 floor, but it lacks the explosive volume required to shatter the heavy resistance sitting at the $73,000 mark. We are essentially seeing a "supply-demand equilibrium" where ETF buying is being matched by long-term holders taking profits from the 2025 highs.

3. Market Indecision: Traders Controlling the Short-Term

The most significant reason for the current sideways trend is that traders are now in the driver's seat. When the market lacks a clear fundamental direction (indecision), the price action is governed by technical levels rather than news.

In this scenario, rather than "buying and holding," market participants are playing the range. They are buying the support at $63,000 and selling the resistance at $73,000. This self-fulfilling prophecy creates a feedback loop that keeps the price trapped. As long as the volume remains concentrated within these boundaries, the sideways "crab market" will persist.

Bitcoin Price Analysis: Navigating Support and Resistance

Analyzing the current Bitcoin chart reveals a clear rectangular consolidation pattern. Since February, BTC has established a rigid structure that offers a blueprint for short-term trade setups.

Key Support Levels

• $63,000 - $64,000 (The Immediate Floor): This area has been tested multiple times. It coincides with the daily 50-period moving average and has shown strong "buy the dip" interest from retail and small-scale whales.
• $60,000 (The Macro Line in the Sand): This is the psychological must-hold level. A daily close below $60,000 would likely signal the end of the sideways trend and the start of a deeper correction toward $52,000.

Key Resistance Levels

• $71,500 - $73,000 (The Supply Zone): This is where "sellers' exhaustion" occurs. Every attempt to breach $73,000 has been met with significant sell orders, often referred to as a "bull trap."
• $74,100 (The Breakout Trigger): To confirm a new bullish trend, Bitcoin needs to flip this level into support.

Pro Tip: In a sideways market, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is your best friend. Look for "oversold" signals (below 30) near the $63,000 support to enter, and "overbought" signals (above 70) near the $73,000 resistance to exit.

Should You Trade Bitcoin Hold Bitcoin?

The current environment favors the active trader. With a 15% price swing available between the support and resistance zones, there are ample opportunities to grow a portfolio while waiting for the next major move. However, if you are a long-term investor, it is crucial to ensure your assets are protected in Hardware Wallets during these periods of chop, as high-leverage trading in a range can often lead to liquidations if a sudden "wick" occurs.

Pi Network (PI) is currently trading at $0.221, marking a 2.15% increase in the last 24 hours. This price movement aligns with a broader recovery in the digital asset market but is significantly amplified by the upcoming Pi Day on March 14. As the community anticipates major roadmap updates and ecosystem milestones, the token has managed to sustain its position above critical psychological support levels.

Is Pi Coin Bullish?

For traders asking if $Pi can break its current resistance, the short-term outlook remains cautiously bullish. The convergence of a major protocol upgrade on March 12 and the annual Pi Day celebration provides a strong fundamental backdrop for a potential move toward $0.24.

Why is Pi Coin UP?

The Pi Network is a social cryptocurrency and developer platform that allows mobile users to mine PI tokens without draining battery life. Unlike traditional Proof-of-Work assets like $Bitcoin, Pi uses a consensus mechanism based on the Stellar Consensus Protocol (SCP).

Currently, the network is in its "Open Network" transition phase. The primary drivers for today's price action include:

• Protocol v20.2 Upgrade: A mandatory node update set for completion by March 12, 2026.
• Pi Day Speculation: The annual March 14 event where the Core Team historically announces major utility updates or Mainnet progress.
• Market Beta: Pi is benefiting from a 3.48% rise in Bitcoin, showing a positive correlation with market leaders.

Pi Day and Network Upgrades

The current rally is a classic "buy the rumor" scenario. Daily trading volumes have surged to approximately $39 million, indicating a sharp increase in retail participation.

The v20.2 Transition

The Core Team has moved the deadline for the v20.2 protocol upgrade to March 12. This upgrade is essential for the network's stability and is rumored to be a precursor for the launch of Pi Decentralized Exchange (DEX) tools. Successful implementation is expected to reduce network latency and prepare the infrastructure for higher transaction throughput.

Market Sentiment and Social Buzz

According to data from Santiment, social volume for Pi Network has spiked in the first week of March. While increased "social whispering" often precedes a local top, the proximity to a scheduled event (Pi Day) suggests that the speculative premium may hold until the actual announcements are made.

Pi Coin Analysis: Resistance and Support Levels

From a technical perspective, PI is showing signs of a bullish pennant formation on the daily chart.

If PI holds above the $0.20 support, the probability of a retest of the $0.24 level before March 14 remains high. However, an RSI reading near 70 suggests the asset is approaching overbought territory, increasing the risk of a "sell the news" correction post-event.

Nearly $1 billion in synthetic oil futures were traded on Wednesday amid reactions to geopolitical tensions and fears of future price spikes.

A new study found eight of the 10 major AI chatbots helped fake teen accounts plan school shootings, assassinations, and bombings.

The XRP-linked Ripple is buying back shares from investors and employees at a $50 billion valuation, according to a report from Bloomberg.

Grammarly said it will rethink the tool after criticism that it used real experts—including some who are deceased—without consent.

Microsoft filed a court brief backing Anthropic's lawsuit against the Pentagon—a move that reveals just how much the tech giant has riding on Claude's survival.

Most assets were unable to break through above the first local resistance, which indicates lack of conviction among investors.

Ripple Labs is doubling down on its private market dominance..

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan has laid out a "straightforward" mathematical case for Bitcoin reaching $1 million per coin.

XRP golden cross emerges as investors weigh recently released inflation report, impacting expectations for an interest rate cut.

Nassim Taleb officially backs Elon Musk's X Money launch, calling it "much smarter than Bitcoin." Discover how the author of "Black Swan" is championing the rise of private currencies.

TLDR:

• THE DEATH BETS Act seeks to ban prediction contracts tied to war, terrorism, assassination, or individual death.

• Lawmakers cited $500M in wagers on U.S.–Iran strike timing as evidence of rising conflict speculation markets.

• Bill removes discretion from regulators and sets a clear ban on violent event contracts on U.S. exchanges.

• Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket face scrutiny as war prediction markets attract political attention.

DEATH BETS Act legislation introduced in Washington aims to prohibit prediction markets from listing contracts tied to war, terrorism, assassinations, or individual deaths.

Lawmakers say speculative trading around military conflicts and geopolitical crises has exposed regulatory gaps within U.S. derivatives oversight frameworks and created ethical concerns.

Lawmakers Move to Ban Death and War Event Contracts

The DEATH BETS Act was introduced by Mike Levin and Adam Schiff. The proposal seeks to block regulated prediction markets from offering contracts tied to violent geopolitical events.

The bill would prevent exchanges registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission from listing contracts related to war, terrorism, assassination, or an individual’s death. 

Lawmakers say the current regulatory framework leaves gaps that allow controversial markets to appear.

Under the Commodity Exchange Act, the CFTC already holds authority to restrict contracts tied to war or terrorism. However, regulators must determine whether such contracts violate public interest standards before taking action.

Supporters of the bill argue that the discretionary nature of the rule allows prediction markets to operate in gray areas. The DEATH BETS Act aims to remove that uncertainty by clearly banning contracts tied to violent events or fatal outcomes.

Rep. Levin pointed to recent speculation involving military conflict. According to the lawmaker, more than $500 million was wagered on the timing of U.S. military strikes on Iran.

Sen. Schiff warned that these markets may encourage traders to profit from classified information or geopolitical instability. Lawmakers argue that markets linked to violent events raise national security concerns.

Prediction Market Activity Fuels Regulatory Debate

Prediction platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket allow traders to speculate on real-world outcomes. Contracts function similarly to binary options, where traders buy shares representing event probabilities.

Recent geopolitical events have driven heavy activity on these platforms. During tensions involving Iran, traders placed large wagers predicting when military strikes might occur.

A multi-outcome contract on Polymarket reportedly attracted more than $500 million in wagers. Traders could purchase shares tied to specific strike dates and profit if the event occurred during that timeframe.

Reports later suggested several suspected insider accounts generated more than $1.2 million in combined profits from related positions. These findings intensified scrutiny from policymakers.

Another contract on Kalshi asked whether Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei would remain in power by a certain date. The market reached roughly $54 million in trading volume before trading was halted.

Other markets have speculated on the removal of Nicolás Maduro from power and the capture of Ukrainian territories during the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Some contracts also explored scenarios involving nuclear escalation or leadership changes during active geopolitical crises. Several were later removed following public criticism.

Lawmakers say these examples illustrate how prediction markets can transform live conflicts into tradable financial events. The DEATH BETS Act aims to establish clear boundaries as the industry expands globally.

The post The DEATH BETS Act: Why Lawmakers Are Moving to Shut Down America’s Fastest-Growing Gray Market appeared first on Blockonomi.

TLDR:

• Apparent demand remains negative, showing new supply exceeds market absorption for Bitcoin.

• CryptoQuant cycle indicators fall into deep bear territory despite price holding $65K–$75K.

• Long-Term Holder SOPR below 1 signals stress among historically strong investors.

• Sideways price action with fading rallies reflects a prolonged patience phase in the cycle.

Bitcoin mid-cycle consolidation is evident as on-chain metrics show weakening demand and investor fatigue. Apparent demand is negative, cycle indicators remain bearish, and long-term holder SOPR has slipped below 1, reflecting stress among historically resilient holders and sideways market behavior.

Apparent Demand Reflects Market Stagnation

Bitcoin mid-cycle consolidation is apparent through the behavior of apparent demand, an on-chain metric measuring how new supply is absorbed. It compares newly mined coins to changes in long-inactive supply entering circulation. 

Positive readings indicate absorption, while negative readings suggest supply exceeds demand. Recent data shows mostly negative demand, with brief green spikes in late February failing to sustain. 

This indicates that buyers are not consistently strong enough to maintain upward momentum. Such behavior is typical of mid-cycle consolidation, where early investors distribute holdings while new participants hesitate to buy at elevated prices.

Price action remains choppy, fluctuating between short rallies and pullbacks. Traders experience psychological strain as optimism during brief rallies is often followed by disappointment. 

Markets show resilience despite negative demand, maintaining the $65K–$75K range, yet lacking sufficient capital inflow to trigger sustained upward trends.

Historical cycles indicate that these periods often precede renewed accumulation. The negative demand environment slowly tests investor patience, producing sideways movement rather than sharp corrections. 

False breakouts and fading rallies become common during this stage, emphasizing the patience required to navigate consolidation.

Long-Term Holder SOPR Signals Growing Stress

Long-Term Holder SOPR measures whether holders sell at a profit or a loss, providing insight into market psychology. Recent readings show the 30-day EMA slipping below 1.0, signaling that even resilient holders are realizing losses.

This occurs during a mid-cycle compression phase where price stagnates and short-lived rallies fail to attract aggressive accumulation. The combination of negative apparent demand and SOPR below 1 reinforces market stagnation.

Price oscillates around the mid-$60K range, producing repeated false breakouts. Traders face uncertainty while long-term holders’ conviction is tested. 

Coins gradually move from weaker hands to stronger holders, quietly setting the foundation for eventual accumulation once demand and confidence return.

This convergence of on-chain signals confirms Bitcoin is navigating a psychologically challenging mid-cycle consolidation, with patience as the primary tool for market participants.

The post Bitcoin Mid-Cycle Consolidation Signals Patience Phase for Investors appeared first on Blockonomi.

TLDR:

• Volkswagen to cut 50,000 jobs in Germany by 2030 following sharp profit decline.

• Chinese EV makers reduce Volkswagen’s market share in its most profitable region.

• Rising German energy and labor costs intensify pressure on Volkswagen operations.

• U.S. import tariffs add nearly €3bn in costs, impacting high-value German exports.

Volkswagen’s job cuts plan targets 50,000 positions in Germany by 2030 following a 44% drop in profits. The company faces intense competition from Chinese EV makers, rising energy costs, and U.S. import tariffs while transitioning toward electric vehicles.

Profit Decline and Cost Pressures

Volkswagen reported a net profit fall from €12.4 billion to €6.9 billion last year, representing a 44% decline. This marks the lowest post-tax profit since 2016, reflecting ongoing global market pressures.

The cuts will span the entire group, including Audi and Porsche, as the company focuses on efficiency. Chief executive Oliver Blume emphasized that operating conditions are now fundamentally different from previous years.

Finance chief Arno Antlitz stressed that the current profit margin is insufficient in the long term. Volkswagen aims to reduce costs rigorously while investing in software and electric vehicle technologies. 

The company has already agreed with unions to cut over 35,000 jobs in a socially responsible manner. Executives estimate the restructuring will save €15 billion by 2030. 

The remaining reductions are part of a broader strategy to maintain competitiveness amid declining profit margins and changing production dynamics.

Competition from China and EV Transition

China has historically been Volkswagen’s most profitable market. Domestic EV manufacturers like BYD now dominate with faster product cycles, competitive pricing, and strong technological integration. 

Sales volumes for Volkswagen in China have declined as a result. Chinese EV makers are also entering European markets, increasing pressure on Volkswagen’s traditional base.

Electric vehicles require fewer components than combustion engine models, which reduces assembly complexity and the workforce needed.

Volkswagen’s focus on electrification has increased restructuring costs. Investments in battery production, software, and new EV models are substantial, making cost control essential. 

These factors, combined with global market shifts, make workforce reductions unavoidable. Rising energy prices in Germany and high labor costs add further challenges. 

Tariffs on U.S. imports also reduce competitiveness for German-produced vehicles. Volkswagen now faces the dual task of cutting costs while accelerating its transition to electric mobility to remain viable.

The post Volkswagen to Cut 50,000 Jobs in Germany by 2030 Amid Rising Costs appeared first on Blockonomi.

TLDR:

• The 20 millionth Bitcoin was mined; only one million remain to enter circulation over 100+ years.

• Bitcoin’s halving mechanism gradually slows new coin creation, ensuring predictable scarcity.

• Mining secures the network, while future transaction fees will sustain miner incentives.

• Bitcoin’s decentralized, inflation-resistant design continues to attract global investors.

Bitcoin’s 20 million mined marks a historic milestone as the network reaches over 20 million coins. Only one million remain to be mined, reinforcing Bitcoin’s scarcity, decentralized structure, and long-term inflation-proof economic design in global finance.

Mining Milestone Highlights Scarcity

Bitcoin reached a new stage as the 20 millionth coin was mined, leaving only one million coins yet to enter circulation.

Brian Armstrong, CEO of Coinbase, highlighted the milestone on X, noting the remaining coins will take over 100 years to mine.

Mining remains the core process of Bitcoin’s issuance. Miners validate transactions and secure the network while receiving newly minted coins as rewards. 

When Bitcoin launched in 2009, the block reward was 50 BTC. The halving mechanism reduces rewards approximately every four years. 

The latest reduction brought the block reward to 3.125 BTC, significantly slowing the creation of new coins. This ensures Bitcoin approaches its 21 million cap gradually, maintaining predictable scarcity.

Mining also supports network security. Over time, transaction fees are expected to replace block rewards as the primary incentive for miners. 

This allows the network to remain decentralized and functional even after all coins are mined.

Decentralized, Inflation-Resistant Money

Bitcoin’s fixed supply positions it as an inflation-resistant asset. Unlike fiat currencies, which can be printed at will, Bitcoin’s 21 million maximum ensures it remains scarce and predictable over time.

Global interest continues to grow. Institutions, corporations, and individual investors are increasingly recognizing Bitcoin as a decentralized, inflation-proof store of value. 

The milestone reinforces its long-term economic design and transparency. The remaining one million coins will enter circulation slowly due to halving. 

This controlled release preserves scarcity, while mining efficiency, hardware, and renewable energy use shape the network’s evolution. Brian Armstrong emphasizes Bitcoin’s role as global money, offering a decentralized alternative to traditional finance.

Bitcoin 20 Million Mined represents more than just a number; it reflects the asset’s scarcity, long-term value proposition, and unique design as decentralized, inflation-resistant money.

The post Bitcoin Mining Reaches 20 million Coins, Only One Million Left to Mine appeared first on Blockonomi.

TLDR:

• SOL rejected $87–$91 Fibonacci resistance, signaling possible Elliott Wave 3 downward movement.

• Maintaining a price below $86.90 keeps the bearish structure intact for near-term SOL declines.

• Downside targets for SOL include $79, $76, and major support between $74–$72.

• Institutions hold $540M in SOL ETFs despite weak short-term momentum and no new inflows.

Solana price analysis indicates SOL may be entering a strong bearish phase as it rejected key Fibonacci resistance. Wave three appears to be forming, and critical levels along with potential downside targets are now the focus for traders.

Solana Faces Bearish Technical Pressure

Recent Solana price analysis shows the market completed a corrective wave two, which tested the Fibonacci cluster between $87 and $91 before reversing. This behavior aligns with an Elliott Wave 1–2 pattern, signaling a potential impulsive decline. 

Traders remain focused on the $86.90 level, the upper boundary for wave two, as maintaining price below it confirms the bearish count.

The resistance zone contains multiple Fibonacci retracements—38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, and 78.6%—which acted as strong supply. SOL failed to reclaim mid-range retracement levels, indicating weakened bullish momentum. 

This failure strengthens the case for a more aggressive downside movement consistent with wave three. Projected targets for wave three align with Fibonacci extensions. 

The first is near $79, followed by $76, and finally the broader support zone between $74 and $72. This lower band reflects prior accumulation areas where buyers historically entered the market, offering potential stabilization points.

Wave three is typically the fastest and most dynamic segment of an Elliott sequence. If SOL accelerates downward, these targets could be reached quickly. 

These could confirm the transition from corrective bounce to impulsive decline. Price action below $84 would serve as an additional signal of bearish continuation.

Market structure also shows that the previous decline from wave (X) may indicate a complex correction rather than a bullish continuation. 

This pattern suggests that SOL’s near-term movement may remain primarily influenced by short-term traders rather than strong institutional inflows.

Institutional Positioning Remains Steady

While SOL shows weak short-term momentum, institutional exposure continues to grow. Recent 13F filings show the top thirty institutional holders collectively maintain about $540 million in SOL ETFs, totaling roughly 4.3 million SOL. 

Electric Capital leads with $137.8 million, followed by Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley. ETF inflow data shows SOL received no new institutional additions during the latest snapshot. 

By contrast, Bitcoin added 3,610 BTC and Ethereum gained 6,325 ETH, highlighting that SOL price movements remain largely driven by spot and derivatives markets rather than current ETF demand.

Institutions maintained exposure even as SOL fell roughly 30% from Q4 highs. This behavior indicates growing confidence in Solana as a long-term asset rather than a speculative trade. 

Such steadiness often signals strategic accumulation, which could provide structural support if bearish momentum continues.

As Solana gains broader adoption, institutional positioning could help transition SOL from a high-beta altcoin to a core layer-1 asset. Combined with technical factors, this institutional backing may influence longer-term price stability.

The post Solana Technical Review Shows Potential Decline Toward $79–$72 appeared first on Blockonomi.

Forbes’ newly announced 2026 Billionaires list shows that Binance founder Changpeng Zhao (CZ) is now richer than tech mogul Bill Gates.

CZ came in 17th place in the magazine’s annual ranking of the richest people in the world, while Gates is placed not far from him at 19th.

CZ Outranks Gates in Forbes Billionaire List

Released annually, the Forbes Billionaires List provides a real-time snapshot of the wealth of the most prolific entrepreneurs, investors, heirs, and celebrities worldwide. According to Forbes’s website, as of March 11, 2026, the former Binance executive has a net worth of $111.1B, while Gates’ is listed as $105.7B.

The data also suggests that CZ’s wealth has been growing steadily over the past three years, thanks to his Binance-linked crypto holdings. But, on the other hand, the tech billionaire’s riches have remained relatively stable and are tied to his Microsoft shares and philanthropic commitments.

Zhao has since responded to the piece, outlining on social media that the information shared is inaccurate.

“Didn’t read the Forbes article, but if you just look at the little chart , you know it’s wrong.”

In his X post, CZ questioned how the publication calculated the figures, pointing out that crypto prices had already fallen by more than 50% in 2026, yet his reported net worth had increased.

Zhao also believes that Forbes’ calculations are “way off.” He gave another example by comparing ByteDance’s $150 billion valuation to its former CEO’s $69 billion net worth. The Forbes official website notes that the 2026 ranking was based on calculations of stock prices and exchange rates as of March 1.

The publication also explained that it looks at the different assets a billionaire is believed to control to come up with a gauge of their wealth, including stakes in public companies, private businesses, real estate, art collections, and other investments.

Forbes Breaks Down Its Wealth Estimates

In Zhao’s case, most of his assumed wealth is believed to originate from his ownership stake in Binance. Forbes’ data shows that he still owns roughly 90% of the exchange. This represents a huge share of his fortune if the company’s valuation is taken into account.

On top of that, he is also believed to hold a large amount of BNB tokens linked to the Binance ecosystem. CZ has shared in the past that his crypto portfolio contains about 98.5% in BNB and only 1.3% in BTC. Despite this, the exact amounts remain undisclosed.

Gates’ wealth, on the other hand, was calculated very differently. The outlet said that most of his fortune has historically been tied to his stake in Microsoft. Forbes, however, revealed that his ownership in the firm has dropped to less than 1% after years of donations and asset diversification.

The tech mogul has given more than $59 billion to the trust that funds the Gates Foundation over the past couple of years. According to Forbes, this has reduced his overall net worth, and as a result, his placement on their list has also dropped.

The post Is Binance’s CZ Really Richer than Bill Gates? appeared first on CryptoPotato.

Fundstrat’s Tom Lee has said that Bitcoin passed a major test after it rallied over the weekend while oil prices surged due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

According to him, the price action was a sign that the massive deleveraging from last October is finally behind the market, allowing Bitcoin to re-emerge as a credible store of value.

The Speculation Has Been Cleared Out

Lee was speaking to CNBC’s Scott Wapner on the sidelines of the Future Proof conference in Miami, where he pointed out that the crypto market had already been through its bear market.

“We had a bear market already in software, the Mag-7 and in crypto,” he said. “I think that’s already taken out a lot of speculation.”

He also said he expects markets to close March in positive territory and potentially reach 5,300 on the S&P 500 later in the year. However, he warned that there might be a 20% decline at some point, which would likely be when markets stop responding to good news.

On Bitcoin specifically, Lee was direct. When pressed by Wapner on whether the OG cryptocurrency had failed as a safe haven, given that gold outperformed during the most recent stretch of market stress, Lee acknowledged the weakness but framed it as a product of extreme conditions.

“Bitcoin did basically break on October 10 because that was the biggest deleveraging event in the history of crypto,” he said. “When gold went up, Bitcoin went down.”

But according to him, that’s all in the past. “We have gone through a winter where a lot of the speculation and the leverage is gone,” he said, pointing to the weekend’s price action as a turning point, with BTC holding up in the face of oil prices climbing sharply when Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz.

“This weekend kind of showed Bitcoin is coming back in vogue as a store of value,” Lee said, noting that BTC held above $70,000 even as oil moved aggressively higher.

Where Bitcoin Stands Now

As of the time of this writing, Bitcoin was trading at around $70,000, only dropping 0.2% in the last 24 hours after briefly touching $71,600 per CoinGecko data. Over the past week, it is up about 3% and up nearly 7% across two weeks, although it remains down around 12% year-on-year and sits more than 44% below its October 2025 all-time high.

The picture from on-chain data is mixed, with Binance Research analysis showing approximately 29,000 BTC have been withdrawn from exchanges while the price traded in the $65,000 to $75,000 range, a pattern that contrasts with an earlier sell-off from $92,000 to $62,000 when exchange balances were rising.

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The past 24 hours have been quite eventful for Ripple.

According to Bloomberg, the company is launching a share buyback program that values it at roughly $50 billion.

The company’s plan is to repurchase up to $750 million in shares from employees and investors. The tender offer is expected to run through the month of April.

Recall that Ripple previously raised $500 million at a $40 billion valuation. This happened back in November last year. Investors in that round included Fortress Investment Group, Citadel Securities, and more.

As mentioned above, the last 24 hours saw Ripple get enlisted in Mastercard’s new Crypto Partner Program. The goal of that is to connect blockchain-based technology with the firm’s broad payments infrastructure.

Moreover, they also announced plans to secure an Australian Financial Services License. To do so, Ripple will be acquiring a local company called BC Payments Australia Pty Ltd, subject to finalizing the standard completion process.

That said, XRP’s price has remained flat on this most recent news. At the time of this writing, the cryptocurrency is trading at $1.39, up 0.7% in the past 24 hours.

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While the second-largest meme coin has been stuck in a prolonged downtrend over the past several months, some market observers believe the price may stage an impressive comeback soon.

Certain on-chain factors reinforce the bullish scenario, whereas stalled activity on Shibarium suggests the bears might not give up easily.

SHIB to Skyrocket?

As of press time, the meme coin trades at around $0.000005653, representing a 52% decline on a yearly scale. Its market capitalization has fallen to roughly $3.3 billion, positioning it as the 31st-biggest cryptocurrency.

According to X user JAVON MARKS, SHIB appears to be nearing the breaking point of another Falling Wedge-like structure and may be gearing up for a substantial jump. The analyst noted that the last move out of such a formation was followed by a whopping 455% price increase, prompting the question of whether history is about to repeat itself.

Another market observer who recently touched upon the token is CRYPTO LEGEND. They believe SHIB could emerge as one of the strongest performers in a future altseason, with gains potentially reaching 10x.

A possible hint of an upcoming rally is the persistent decrease in tokens sitting on crypto exchanges. CryptoQuant’s data shows that the figure recently plunged to a five-year low of around 80.1 trillion. The trend indicates that investors have been steadily shifting from centralized platforms to self-custody, thus reducing immediate selling pressure.

Shiba Inu’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) should also be mentioned. The technical analysis tool has tumbled to around 30 on a weekly scale, suggesting that the asset has neared oversold territory and could be due for a resurgence. Conversely, ratios above 70 are interpreted as precursors of a pullback.

Further Pain for the Bulls?

In contrast to the optimistic forecasts, SHIB’s burning mechanism and Shibarium’s stagnation point to the possibility of further weakness. The burn rate is down nearly 30% on a daily scale, resulting in less than 5 million tokens (whose USD valuation is negligible) sent to a null address.

The program was adopted in 2022, and since then, the team and the community have scorched roughly 410.75 trillion coins, leaving approximately 585.47 trillion in circulation. Its ultimate goal is to reduce SHIB’s overall supply, thereby potentially driving up prices due to scarcity (should demand remain constant or rise).

Shibarium’s stalled progress is another bearish factor. Launched in the summer of 2023, Shiba Inu’s layer-2 scaling solution was designed to boost the ecosystem by lowering fees, boosting speed, and improving scalability.

However, the protocol suffered an exploit last year, which severely damaged investor confidence. Daily transactions, once in the millions, plunged to mere hundreds after the incident.

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Bitcoin could reach $1 million if it captures roughly 17% of a projected $121 trillion global store-of-value market, according to Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise Asset Management.

In a recent memo, he explained how long-term market expansion could support significantly higher prices for the digital asset.

Math Behind The Target

Hougan said the idea initially appears unrealistic because a $1 million valuation would require Bitcoin to increase roughly 14 times from its current price, a target he himself once dismissed in 2018, when BTC was trading near $4,000.

However, after studying the asset’s role in financial markets, he said the common mistake in evaluating Bitcoin’s long-term potential is treating the store-of-value market as fixed rather than expanding. Hougan described Bitcoin as an emerging digital store-of-value asset that competes with gold by allowing investors to hold wealth outside traditional fiat currencies and banking systems, although he acknowledged that the cryptocurrency remains more volatile and less established than the metal.

According to the Bitwise exec, estimating BTC’s potential value involves calculating the total size of the global store-of-value market, estimating the portion Bitcoin could capture, and dividing that value by the asset’s maximum supply of 21 million units. Based on current figures, Hougan said the store-of-value market totals just under $38 trillion, including about $36 trillion in gold and roughly $1.4 trillion in Bitcoin. This implies that BTC currently represents slightly less than 4% of that market.

Under those conditions, he said a $1 million BTC price would appear unrealistic because the cryptocurrency would need to capture more than half of the existing store-of-value market. He described this scenario as a “high bar.” However, the CIO noted that the market itself has grown significantly over time and may continue expanding. He pointed to the growth of the metal’s market capitalization over the past two decades, and added that when the first US gold exchange-traded fund launched in 2004, the global market was worth about $2.5 trillion.

Since then, the value of gold has increased to nearly $40 trillion, representing a compound annual growth rate of roughly 13%, driven by concerns about government debt levels, geopolitical uncertainty, loose monetary policy, and other macroeconomic factors. Hougan said that if the broader store-of-value market continues growing at a similar pace, it could reach approximately $121 trillion within the next decade.

Under that scenario, Bitcoin would only need to capture about 17% of the market to reach a valuation of $1 million per BTC. Hougan acknowledged that this would still represent significant growth, as BTC’s current share remains around 4%, but said recent developments suggest that expanding adoption could make such a shift possible.

Key Risks

Despite the optimistic outlook, Hougan said there are risks that could prevent the scenario from unfolding. He noted that the store-of-value market may not continue growing at the same pace seen over the past two decades, which included events such as the global financial crisis, the widespread adoption of quantitative easing, and a prolonged period of low interest rates.

A slowdown in those trends could also lead to declining gold prices. Another possibility is that Bitcoin fails to capture additional market share.

At the same time, Hougan said it is also possible that current projections underestimate the asset’s potential if concerns about rising government debt intensify and investors increasingly turn to alternative stores of value. Under his base-case scenario, he said the store-of-value market would continue expanding while Bitcoin gradually increases its share. He added that such a combination could result in prices far above current levels.

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