Prediction markets are increasingly integral to pop culture and consumer engagement. The regulatory landscape for prediction markets is expected to become more liberal. Unresolved issues in prediction markets include ambiguous outcomes and insider trading concerns.

The post Michael Selig: Prediction markets are reshaping pop culture engagement, the CFTC’s pivotal role in regulation, and insider trading complexities in commodities | Odd Lots appeared first on Crypto Briefing.

Gemini's leadership changes and strategic retreat may signal broader instability in the crypto sector, affecting investor confidence and market dynamics.

The post Gemini stock drops 15% after key executives step down appeared first on Crypto Briefing.

American Bitcoin exceeds 6,000 BTC worth $405M as mining output rises on lower difficulty while shares fall 37% year to date.

The post American Bitcoin surpasses 6,000 BTC milestone worth $411M appeared first on Crypto Briefing.

Crypto loses its distinct identity when it begins to mimic traditional financial systems. If crypto projects function like banks or securities exchanges, they must comply with existing laws. The current state of crypto resembles traditional finance but often resists regulation.

The post Corey Frayer: Crypto loses its identity when mimicking traditional finance, SEC’s independence is crucial for regulation, and compliance can create competitive advantages | Bankless appeared first on Crypto Briefing.

Schwab's increased investment in Bitcoin strategies signals growing institutional confidence in cryptocurrency's long-term potential.

The post Charles Schwab increases stake in Bitcoin treasury Strategy appeared first on Crypto Briefing.

Bitcoin Magazine

Abu Dhabi’s Al Warda Raises Bitcoin ETF Stake to 8.2 Million IBIT Shares in Q4 Filing

Abu Dhabi-based Al Warda Investments continued to expand its exposure to bitcoin through BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) in the fourth quarter of 2025, extending a strategy shift that began earlier in the year.

In a filing released today, Al Warda reported owning 8,218,712 shares of IBIT as of Dec. 31, up from 7,963,393 shares at the end of the third quarter. The increase follows a sharp Q3 buildup, when the firm more than tripled its stake and raised its bitcoin ETF exposure to $517.6 million.

Al Warda operates under the Abu Dhabi Investment Council (ADIC), part of Mubadala Investment Co., one of the region’s leading sovereign wealth groups. The council has rarely taken public positions in listed digital assets, typically favoring private market investments such as buyouts, infrastructure, and real estate.

Its growing allocation through a U.S.-listed bitcoin ETF signals a shift in institutional positioning within the Gulf. A spokesperson for ADIC previously told Bloomberg that bitcoin is increasingly viewed as a long-term store of value alongside gold, citing its role in portfolio diversification as financial markets move toward a more digital future.

The Q4 increase comes after bitcoin surged toward an October peak near $126,000 before retreating below $90,000 in November. Bitcoin is currently trading near $67,000. 

Other institutions exploring Bitcoin via IBIT

Last week, Goldman Sachs disclosed roughly $2.36 billion in total crypto exposure, including a $1.1 billion position in IBIT, signaling a shift from its earlier skepticism toward bitcoin. 

SEC filings also showed smaller holdings in Fidelity’s Bitcoin fund, bitcoin-related companies, and options positions tied to IBIT, alongside exposure to Ethereum, XRP, and Solana. 

In November of last year, Texas became the first U.S. state to purchase Bitcoin for its Strategic Reserve, acquiring $5 million IBIT shares worth approximately $87,000 per BTC. The purchase was made through BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) while the state finalizes plans for self-custody of the asset. 

Texas had previously explored legislation to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve without using taxpayer funds. In June, the governor signed the law creating the state’s Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.

Harvard also adjusted its crypto holdings in Q4 2025, cutting its Bitcoin position by 21% to 5.35 million IBIT shares ($265.8 million) while establishing a new $86.8 million stake in BlackRock’s iShares Ethereum Trust. 

Combined crypto exposure totaled $352.6 million, with Bitcoin remaining the endowment’s largest publicly disclosed equity.

This post Abu Dhabi’s Al Warda Raises Bitcoin ETF Stake to 8.2 Million IBIT Shares in Q4 Filing first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Micah Zimmerman.

Bitcoin Magazine

Strategy ($MSTR) Buys $168M in Bitcoin, Expands Holdings to 717,131 BTC

Strategy, the bitcoin treasury company led by Executive Chairman Michael Saylor, purchased $168.4 million in bitcoin last week, continuing its long-running accumulation strategy despite ongoing volatility in the crypto market.

The company disclosed that it acquired 2,486 BTC over the past week, expanding its already sizable holdings. The company’s total bitcoin reserves now stand at 717,131 BTC, making it one of the largest corporate holders of bitcoin globally.

According to the company, the full position has been accumulated for $54.52 billion, representing an average purchase price of $76,027 per bitcoin. 

With bitcoin currently trading around $68,000, Strategy’s holdings sit below its aggregate cost basis. The difference implies an unrealized loss of roughly $8,000 per coin, or approximately $5.7 billion across the company’s total stack.

Saylor confirmed the latest purchase in a statement posted Tuesday, noting that Strategy continues to build its bitcoin position as part of its broader corporate treasury strategy. The company has consistently added bitcoin through market cycles, framing the asset as a long-term reserve holding.

Strategy accounted for more than 90% of net new public-company purchases in January. Public companies now hold about 1.13 million BTC total, with Strategy controlling nearly two-thirds, while also expanding its influence through hybrid digital credit instruments like STRC and STRF. 

Strategy’s common stock sales

The filing also detailed how the most recent purchases were financed. The company said the bitcoin buys were funded through $90.5 million in proceeds from common stock sales, alongside $78.4 million raised from sales of its STRC preferred series. 

The company has relied on a mix of equity issuance and other financing tools in recent years to support its bitcoin accumulation program.

Strategy’s approach has drawn both strong support and criticism from market participants. Advocates view the company as a pioneer in institutional bitcoin adoption, while skeptics point to the risks of leveraging corporate capital markets activity to increase exposure to a volatile asset.

The purchases come at a time when bitcoin has traded well below record highs, putting pressure on companies with large treasury allocations. Its average acquisition cost now exceeds the current market price, highlighting the drawdowns that can occur even for firms that have built positions over multiple years.

In equity markets, Strategy shares reflected continued investor caution. MSTR stock was down 3.2% in premarket trading Tuesday and has declined more than 60% year-over-year, according to market data. 

Last Friday, shares of MSTR surged over 10%.

Despite the near-term losses implied by Bitcoin’s pullback, the company has maintained its commitment to holding and acquiring more BTC. The company has repeatedly stated that it views bitcoin as a long-duration asset and a central pillar of its balance sheet ideas.

This post Strategy ($MSTR) Buys $168M in Bitcoin, Expands Holdings to 717,131 BTC first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Micah Zimmerman.

Bitcoin Magazine

Nakamoto Inc. ($NAKA) to Acquire BTC Inc and UTXO Management

Nakamoto Inc. (NASDAQ: NAKA) announced today that it has entered into merger agreements to acquire BTC Inc, the leading provider of Bitcoin-related media and events, and UTXO Management GP, LLC (“UTXO”), an investment firm focused on private and public Bitcoin companies (collectively, the “Transaction”).

The Transaction is expected to close in the first quarter this year, subject to customary closing conditions, and will be financed entirely with Nakamoto common stock in accordance with Nakamoto’s call option under the Marketing Services Agreement (the “MSA”), using a price of $1.12 per share. The Company’s option to acquire BTC Inc and UTXO, through BTC Inc’s call option with UTXO, was previously disclosed as part of Nakamoto’s proposed merger with Nakamoto Holdings, Inc. (“Nakamoto Holdings”).

The MSA, outlines the terms of the Company’s option and was publicly filed and approved by the Company’s shareholders in connection with that transaction. Following shareholder approval, Nakamoto, BTC Inc, and UTXO engaged in extensive joint marketing initiatives across BTC Inc’s media and events platforms. Nakamoto exercised its call option with BTC Inc and BTC Inc exercised its call option with UTXO concurrently with signing of the merger agreements.

The Transaction is intended to further establish Nakamoto as a diversified Bitcoin operating company with a global brand, established distribution networks, and institutional capabilities across media, asset management, and advisory services. BTC Inc and UTXO are expected to provide recurring earnings to strengthen the Company’s balance sheet and support growth initiatives, including additional Bitcoin accumulation and strategic acquisitions.

“Bringing BTC Inc and UTXO into Nakamoto has been a part of our vision since day one,” said David Bailey, Chairman and CEO of Nakamoto. “We intend to operate a portfolio of companies across media, asset management, and advisory services that can scale with Bitcoin’s long-term growth. BTC Inc and UTXO are global leaders in Bitcoin media and asset management. This transaction signifies the first step of the company we intend to build, and we’re just getting started.”

The Transaction will be financed entirely with Nakamoto common stock in accordance with Nakamoto’s call option under the MSA, using a price of $1.12 per share. BTC Inc and UTXO securityholders will receive, on a fully diluted basis, 363,589,816 shares of Nakamoto common stock, subject to customary purchase price adjustments at closing, The combined value of this consideration is $107,295,354, before any such customary purchase price adjustments, which is based on Nakamoto’s closing price on February 13, 2026, of $0.2951.

BTC Inc: The Global Leader in Bitcoin Media and Events

BTC Inc, headquartered in Nashville, is the one of the largest Bitcoin media companies in the world, based on event attendance, online audience, and brand portfolio. Its holdings include 27 media brands, reaching approximately 6 million people globally through its aggregated social media followers. 

BTC Inc organizes The Bitcoin Conference, the largest Bitcoin event series in the U.S., Asia, Europe, and the Middle East, which hosted more than 67,000 attendees in 2025. 

BTC Inc is also the parent company of Bitcoin Magazine, which was first published in May 2012, establishing the publication as the longest-running source of Bitcoin news, information, and expert commentary. 

BTC Inc also operates Bitcoin for Corporations, a membership-based platform for companies adopting Bitcoin as a strategic treasury asset, which currently hosts over 40 member companies and has a 5-year brand partnership with Strategy Inc. for hosting networking events and educational content.

“For more than a decade, BTC Inc has focused on informing, convening, and advancing the global Bitcoin community,” said Brandon Green, Chief Executive Officer of BTC. “Combining with Nakamoto represents a significant opportunity to scale our reach, deepen engagement, and support the next phase of Bitcoin’s growth across enterprises and investors.”

UTXO: Investing in Bitcoin Acceleration

UTXO is the adviser to 210k Capital, LP, a hedge fund focused on Bitcoin, Bitcoin-related securities, and derivatives. The investment team leverages extensive experience in the Bitcoin ecosystem to allocate capital across public and private market opportunities.

“UTXO was founded to back the builders and companies shaping the Bitcoin economy,” said Tyler Evans, Chief Investment Officer of Nakamoto and Chief Investment Officer of UTXO. “Leveraging Nakamoto’s public platform and robust treasury, we see a powerful opportunity to compound value across the Bitcoin ecosystem and reinforce Bitcoin’s role as a foundational asset in modern capital markets.”

About Nakamoto Inc.

Nakamoto Inc. (NASDAQ: NAKA) is a Bitcoin company that owns and operates a global portfolio of Bitcoin- native enterprises spanning media and information, asset management, and advisory services. For more information, please visit nakamoto.com.

Bitcoin Magazine is published by BTC Inc. BTC Inc. has entered into an agreement to be acquired by Nakamoto Inc. (NASDAQ: NAKA); the transaction has not yet closed.

This post Nakamoto Inc. ($NAKA) to Acquire BTC Inc and UTXO Management first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Nik and Micah Zimmerman.

Bitcoin Magazine

Metaplanet Reports $619 Million Loss as Bitcoin Holdings Take Hit

Tokyo-based Bitcoin treasury firm Metaplanet posted a net loss of 95 billion yen ($619 million) for fiscal 2025, driven by a 102.2 billion yen ($665.8 million) valuation decline on its bitcoin holdings. 

The disclosure marks the latest example of a corporate bitcoin buyer facing pressure as the cryptocurrency’s price slid from record highs in October.

The company closed the year with 35,102 BTC, valued at approximately $2.4 billion, making Metaplanet the fourth-largest public corporate bitcoin holder globally, behind Strategy. Since it began accumulating bitcoin 21 months ago, Metaplanet has spent nearly $3.8 billion, averaging $107,000 per coin.

As of December 31, the company’s holdings were down roughly 37% on paper, representing an unrealized loss of about $1.4 billion. In the fourth quarter alone, the stash lost 102 billion yen ($664 million) in value.

Metaplanet’s revenue surge

Despite the valuation loss, the firm’s operating performance showed significant improvement. Revenue jumped 738% to 8.91 billion yen ($58 million) from 1.06 billion yen ($6.9 million) the previous year, the company said.

Operating profit surged 1,695% to 6.29 billion yen ($41 million), driven primarily by premiums from bitcoin option transactions, which accounted for about 95% of total revenue.

The company’s largest acquisitions occurred when bitcoin traded above $100,000. Notable purchases included 25% growth of its bitcoin holdings with a $630 million buy in September at roughly $106,000 per coin, followed by a $615 million acquisition in October near $108,000.

The firm has funded its purchases largely through common stock issuances, while also adopting preferred shares to secure additional capital. Metaplanet introduced MERCURY and MARS, its first preferred share offerings in Japan, as a means to strengthen its balance sheet and create a buffer against crypto market volatility. 

For fiscal 2026, Metaplanet forecasts revenue of 16 billion yen ($104 million) and operating profit of 11.4 billion yen ($74.3 million), reflecting roughly 80% growth in both metrics. The company did not provide net income guidance, citing ongoing bitcoin price volatility, but reaffirmed a long-term target of 210,000 BTC by 2027, equivalent to about 1% of the total bitcoin supply.

Metaplanet’s stock edged up slightly to 326 yen on Monday, according to Yahoo Finance, after a six-month decline exceeding 62%.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading near $68,000.

This post Metaplanet Reports $619 Million Loss as Bitcoin Holdings Take Hit first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Micah Zimmerman.

Bitcoin Magazine

Bitcoin Bears Dominate: Failure to Break $71,800 Keeps Downside Risk Alive

Bitcoin Price Weekly Outlook

The past week’s price action has been rather lackluster for Bitcoin. After seeing a big bounce from $60,000, the price failed to get above short-term resistance at $71,800 last week. Instead, the price tested the short-term support at $65,650 before bouncing back up to close the week out at $68,811. While the weekly chart is showing some buying strength below $66,000, the lack of follow-through for buyers on the bounces so far is a sign of weakness. Look for the price to drift towards the $60,000 lows this week if the bulls can’t keep it above $71,000 on a daily close to challenge higher levels.

Key Support and Resistance Levels Now

Last week, $65,650 proved to be valid short-term support as the price dipped just below it before rallying quickly back above it. If a day closes below $65,650, look for $63,000 to act as support. Below $63,000, we have the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement at $57,800. This is a key level to hold as there isn’t much support below until $44,000.

If the bulls can muster up some strength, resistance still sits overhead at $71,800. Closing above this level leads to $74,500, with $79,000 resistance above here. If the bulls can somehow manage to get above $79,000 (unlikely), $84,000 remains as a very strong barrier up above.

Outlook For This Week

The outlook for this week is a tough one to call. U.S. markets are closed on Monday, so don’t expect too much movement until Tuesday morning. We really could go either way from this $68,800 close. I would look for the $67,000 level to be tested early this week, and if we see support near there, we may be able to push past $71,000 later into the week. If $67,000 is lost, though, look for the low $60,000 to be challenged once again.

Market mood: Very bearish – The price could not manage to gain any upward momentum last week at all. The bears are in full control.

The next few weeks
As I mentioned last week, the price may range in the area from $60,000 to $80,000 for a while, with maybe a wick down to the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement at $57,800. At the moment, this ceiling can be lowered to $74.5k. There is no telling exactly when the impending “Crypto Bill” will be passed by Congress, or exactly what it will entail for the crypto space as a whole. It is not guaranteed to result in higher prices for bitcoin when it eventually passes, either, so for now, we must rely on the technicals to guide us. For the time being, the bias is still bearish, and if we lose $57,800, the bitcoin price will likely take the next leg down.

Terminology Guide:

Bulls/Bullish: Buyers or investors expecting the price to go higher.

Bears/Bearish: Sellers or investors expecting the price to go lower.

Support or support level: A level at which the price should hold for the asset, at least initially. The more touches on support, the weaker it gets and the more likely it is to fail to hold the price.

Resistance or resistance level: Opposite of support.  The level that is likely to reject the price, at least initially. The more touches at resistance, the weaker it gets and the more likely it is to fail to hold back the price.

Fibonacci Retracements and Extensions: Ratios based on what is known as the golden ratio, a universal ratio pertaining to growth and decay cycles in nature. The golden ratio is based on the constants Phi (1.618) and phi (0.618).

This post Bitcoin Bears Dominate: Failure to Break $71,800 Keeps Downside Risk Alive first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Ethan Greene - Feral Analysis and Juan Galt.

A botched home invasion in the Paris suburbs on Feb. 12 marked a tactical shift in crypto's physical-threat or “wrench attack” landscape.

The target, according to French media reports, was the CEO of Binance France. Binance confirmed an employee was targeted and said the employee and family are safe.

Two phones were stolen before the suspects were arrested at Lyon Perrache station. The assailants reportedly entered the wrong residence first before moving to their intended target. This detail suggests reconnaissance and intent, not opportunism.

The incident is more concerning than the rising baseline of wrench attacks.

This was a named executive at a recognizable institutional brand, the largest crypto exchange by trading volume.

The attackers were comfortable hunting a figure tied directly to a corporate chart, not just a wallet balance.

That comfort signals a new phase: organized criminals have elevated crypto coercion into a structured, coordinated line of work.

They are professionalizing target selection, with France emerging as the clearest example of this shift.

Record-breaking “wrench attack” wave

CertiK's 2025 Wrench Attacks Report logged 72 verified physical coercion incidents globally, a 75% increase over 2024, with confirmed losses exceeding $40.9 million.

The firm explicitly notes this figure undercounts the true scale, as many victims don't report, and some incidents never surface publicly. Europe accounted for 40.3% of all attacks, and within Europe, France led with 19 verified cases.

The brutality mix is shifting. Kidnapping became the dominant vector in 2025, with 25 incidents globally. Physical assaults surged 250% year-over-year, rising from four cases in 2024 to 14 in 2025.

The tactics are diversifying: home invasions, street abductions, and family targeting. Criminals are treating physical coercion as a repeatable business model with predictable returns, and the data shows they're iterating on methods that work.

Early 2026 has maintained the France-heavy pattern. Tracking by Jameson Lopp and coverage across French and international outlets document a disproportionate concentration of cases in French jurisdictions.

The Binance France incident fits the trend, but it also extends it. Executives were rarely the primary target category until now.

Why executives change the calculus

Targeting an exchange CEO introduces variables that retail whale-hunting doesn't.

Executives are assumed to hold three things that make them high-value marks: personal holdings, privileged system access, and wealthy networks.

Whether those assumptions are accurate is irrelevant. What matters is whether criminals believe they are.

CertiK explicitly frames the evolution: attacks have moved from opportunistic crime to organized, OSINT-driven operations. Finding a CEO's home address is easier than finding a pseudonymous whale's cold storage location. Corporate records, LinkedIn profiles, conference speaker lists, and real estate filings create a discoverable attack surface.

The perceived payout is larger and faster. An executive can unlock institutional resources or leverage them to meet ransom demands that exceed what any individual could pay.

The attack surface extends beyond the executive. Reuters' coverage of French incidents shows abductors targeting relatives, such as CEOs' daughters and fathers of founders, because coercive economics favor soft targets over hardened ones.

A family member at home is easier to intercept than a security-conscious principal, and the leverage is equivalent.

Why France became the “wrench attack” hotspot

France's dominance in wrench attack statistics isn't random. Five structural factors converge to make it uniquely vulnerable.

First, France hosts a dense, visible crypto founder class. Ledger is headquartered in Paris. Paymium is one of Europe's oldest exchanges. Multiple high-profile figures and entities are publicly associated with French addresses, creating a target-rich environment for criminals who do basic research.

Repeated cases show attackers targeting identifiable figures and their relatives, suggesting that name recognition drives target selection.

Second, doxxing and data availability create mapable targets. The Wall Street Journal documented how data leaks and public records expose addresses, turning an abstract “crypto user” into a concrete “person at this location.”

In January 2026, hackers breached Waltio, a French crypto tax software provider, reportedly obtaining emails and tax reports tied to roughly 50,000 users.

French authorities are investigating. Linking identity, crypto activity, and location is exactly what turns surveillance into operational targeting.

More explosive is the reported allegation, still under investigation, that a French tax office employee sold sensitive lookup results about crypto investors.

French media describe the case as an active prosecution. If substantiated, it suggests criminals had direct access to government-held identity and financial data.

Third, organized kidnapping infrastructure appears to be repeatable and coordinated. Le Monde's reporting describes structured gang models across multiple kidnappings, including remote coordination and operations linked to Morocco.

This isn't amateur crime, but crew-based work with logistics, division of labor, and cross-border components. Once that infrastructure is in place, it scales.

Fourth, regulatory compliance concentrates sensitive identity data in areas that are vulnerable to leaks. France operates under the AMF's DASP/PSAN framework and is actively messaging the MiCA transition deadline of July 1.

Compliance requirements such as the “travel rule” require identity collection and data sharing.

Reuters quoted French industry voices criticizing these mandates, arguing they increase exposure.
Greater compliance means more identity data across more databases, and each database is a potential breach surface.

Fifth, copycat dynamics and media feedback loops amplify successful tactics. Once a jurisdiction is seen as “working” for criminals, attacker playbooks spread.

More dedicated crews emerge. Victims adjust their behavior by hiring bodyguards, reducing public presence, and compartmentalizing holdings.

However, those adjustments fail to eliminate the threat and instead increase the cost of defense, even as attackers shift their focus to the next vulnerability.

What happens next

The near-term scenario is hardening without solving.

More executives will adopt personal security, reduce visibility, and move assets into compartmentalized custody. Attacks will continue because the expected value remains high and the attack surface continues to grow.

CertiK describes the threat as “structural,” meaning it's embedded in incentives rather than a transient crime wave.

A France-specific inflection could arrive if the Waltio breach and the tax official allegations trigger stricter rules on access logs, identity minimization, and breach liability.

If regulators impose real penalties for data exposure and limit who can query sensitive records, France could reduce its target-discovery rate. That would require treating data handling as a security problem, not just a compliance checkbox.

The crypto irony scenario involves institutional custody making a comeback. If wealthy users and executives conclude that self-custody increases physical risk, they may shift toward professional custody services with insurance and institutional-grade security.

That reduces wrench attack ROI, but it re-centralizes custody and changes the threat model back toward cyber compromise and institutional vulnerabilities.

Chainalysis has flagged rising emphasis on individual targeting and noted links between theft patterns and market conditions, suggesting coercion incentives track price cycles.

The stakes are institutional now

The Binance France incident signals that exchange executives have become high-value targets. Criminals view them as worth the risk.

That belief reshapes the security posture for every crypto company with a public-facing team and a French presence. It also reshapes recruiting: how many qualified professionals will accept roles that come with kidnapping risk?

France's regulators and law enforcement face a decision. They can treat these incidents as isolated crimes and rely on arrests after the fact.

Or they can recognize that data pipelines, compliance mandates, and public registries are creating systematically exploitable vulnerabilities.

The wrench attack wave reflects what happens when crypto holders are made visible, legible, and locatable at scale.

The criminals have already professionalized. The question is whether the defenses will.

The post Binance employee hunted down in botched France home invasion as crypto “wrench attack” spike spreads appeared first on CryptoSlate.

The fiscal mathematics of the United States are drifting toward a threshold that markets can no longer afford to ignore, and a level that, relative to GDP, hasn't transpired since the last world war.

Washington’s latest budgetary outlook suggests the nation is on a trajectory to accumulate nearly $64 trillion in federal debt over the next decade.

The Congressional Budget Office’s (CBO) most recent decade-long outlook indicates a sustained increase in national obligations.

The CBO projects federal deficits will total approximately $1.9 trillion in fiscal year 2026. That gap is expected to widen toward $3.1 trillion by 2036.

These figures would increase public-sector debt from approximately 101% of gross domestic product in 2026 to about 120% by 2036. That level exceeds the peak debt burden seen in the aftermath of World War II.

For global investors, the absolute size of the debt pile is often less alarming than the cost of servicing it. The CBO data indicate that interest costs are on track to become one of the government’s dominant line items. Annual net interest payments are projected to reach around $2.1 trillion by the mid-2030s.

The projection comes as bearish sentiment against the US dollar reaches multi-year highs, creating a volatile macroeconomic backdrop that increasingly aligns with the long-term investment thesis for hard assets such as Bitcoin.

The bond market reality check

While headline numbers grab attention, the Treasury market trades on more immediate mechanics.

The Treasury Department’s “Debt to the Penny” dataset indicates that total US debt outstanding stood at approximately $38.65 trillion as of Feb. 12.

However, the path from this level to the projected $64 trillion depends heavily on how the marginal dollar is funded. Investors are increasingly focused on the compensation required to hold longer-dated Treasuries amid policy uncertainty.

This compensation is visible in the term premium, which is the extra yield investors demand to hold long-term bonds rather than rolling over short-term bills.

The term premium can remain suppressed for extended periods. However, when it rises, it pushes long-end yields higher even without a change in expected short-term policy rates.

This dynamic effectively increases the carrying cost of the national debt and tightens financial conditions across the economy.

This is because a rising term premium frames higher long-term yields not merely as a reflection of inflation expectations but as a risk premium charged for fiscal and regulatory uncertainty.

Notably, recent market commentary suggests this shift is underway. A Reuters survey conducted Feb. 5-11 found that strategists expect long-term Treasury yields to rise later in 2026.

Respondents cited persistent inflation, heavy debt issuance, and investor concerns about policy direction. Strategists also noted that reducing the Federal Reserve's balance sheet becomes significantly more difficult to sustain in a world flooded with Treasury supply.

This presents a critical “macro fork” for the crypto market.

If the bond market demands a persistently higher term premium to absorb Treasury supply, the US government can still fund its operations, but only at the cost of higher borrowing rates for the entire economy.

Such a scenario raises the political incentive to seek relief through alternative measures. These could include lower interest rates, regulatory incentives for captive buyers to purchase debt, or greater tolerance for higher inflation.

These are the classic ingredients of “financial repression,” a playbook that investors have historically associated with the outperformance of hard assets.

Betting against the Dollar

The currency market is simultaneously signaling unease.

The vulnerability of the US dollar is increasingly framed not as a cyclical economic story but as a question of governance and credibility.

Over the past year, the US dollar recorded its worst performance since 2017, falling by more than 10% amid President Donald Trump's policies.

Reuters reported that market strategists broadly expect the softness to persist throughout 2026, citing potential rate cuts and growing concerns about central bank independence.

Moreover, some investors had begun reassessing the dollar's “automatic safe haven” status amid geopolitical and policy volatility.

This positioning confirms the shift in sentiment regarding the US dollar.

Indeed, the Financial Times reported that fund managers are taking their most bearish stance on the dollar in over a decade.

A Bank of America survey cited in the report showed the lowest exposure to the currency since at least 2012. The pessimism was attributed to policy unpredictability and rising geopolitical risk.

However, the shift away from the dollar in global reserves is nuanced.

IMF COFER data shows the dollar’s share of allocated global reserves stood at 56.92% in the third quarter of 2025 (down slightly from 57.08% in the second quarter).

This trajectory represents a slow drift rather than a collapse. It also implies that the dollar can be weak in trading markets while remaining dominant in the plumbing of global finance.

The diversification signal is most evident in the commodities market. The World Gold Council reports that central banks purchased 863 tonnes of gold in 2025.

While this figure is below the exceptional years in which purchases exceeded 1,000 tonnes, it remains well above the average recorded between 2010 and 2021.

This sustained buying reinforces the view that official-sector diversification is an ongoing structural trend.

Bitcoin’s macro pitch, three paths investors are weighing

In the current conversation, Bitcoin’s long-term bull case is often framed as a hedge against debasement and policy discretion.

However, the more precise question is which macro regime the market is entering, because each regime reshapes real rates, liquidity, and confidence differently.

One path is an orderly grind. In this case, deficits remain large, and issuance stays heavy, but inflation remains contained, and policy credibility holds. The dollar can drift lower without breaking the system, and Treasury auctions clear with modest concessions as the term premium rises gradually.

In that world, Bitcoin tends to trade mostly as a liquidity-sensitive risk asset. It can rally on debasement headlines, but it remains tethered to real yields and broader risk appetite.

A second path is a fiscal risk-premium regime. Investors demand materially more compensation to hold the long end. Term premiums rise, yields steepen, and higher financing costs begin to feed back into politics.

The narrative shifts from debt is big to debt is expensive. In that setup, scarce-asset trades have tended to perform better, as investors seek hedges that are not claims on a heavily indebted sovereign.

Gold’s official-sector bid supports that analogy. Bitcoin’s fixed supply becomes more compelling for investors who view fiscal dominance, meaning monetary policy constrained by debt service, as the direction of travel.

A third path is the dollar paradox. It is the twist that complicates any simple dollar-bear story in crypto.

A Bank for International Settlements working paper published in February finds that large inflows into dollar-backed stablecoins can lower 3-month Treasury bill yields by roughly 2.5 to 3.5 basis points for a 2-standard-deviation flow.

The implication is not that stablecoins solve the long-term debt problem. It is that stablecoin growth can create marginal demand for short-dated Treasuries.

That matters because crypto can simultaneously support Bitcoin’s hedge narrative while deepening dollarization through stablecoin rails.

Bitcoin and stablecoins can pull in different directions at the story level while reinforcing the same dollar-based settlement infrastructure at the system level.

What investors are watching next

For now, the $64 trillion projection has compressed years of drift into a single figure that would alarm the globe.

For crypto traders seeking to map these narratives into tradable signals, the tells tend to appear in rates and credibility.

The first set of signals sits in the rates complex. Investors will be watching for evidence that the market is charging a persistent risk premium to absorb long-end supply, and whether auction outcomes begin to reflect stress that persists beyond a single news cycle.

A sustained rise in term premium would indicate that uncertainty, not just inflation expectations, is being priced into long yields.

The second set of signals is credibility. Headlines around central-bank independence function like accelerants because they can turn a gradual debt story into a faster-moving FX story.

If credibility shocks pile up, the debate over debasement and hard assets tends to grow louder, even if the dollar remains dominant in reserves and settlement.

The third set is reserve drift and the gold bid. COFER data showing a slow decline from 57.08% in 2025Q2 to 56.92% in 2025Q3 supports the idea that de-dollarization is incremental. Central bank gold purchases of 863 tonnes in 2025 reinforce that official diversification is ongoing, even without a rupture.

The fourth set is stablecoin flows and bill demand. If stablecoin growth continues to anchor demand for short-dated Treasuries, it can soften the near-term funding narrative even as longer-term debt dynamics worsen.

That can buy time for the system while leaving the long end to carry the heavier burden of credibility and duration risk.

Put together, the setup helps explain why Bitcoin keeps showing up in the macro hedge playbook. It does not require a dollar collapse. It does not require a sudden change in the reserve regime.

It requires something more subtle and, for markets, more tradable, an increase in doubt about the future rules of money, paired with enough liquidity to keep the hedge trade alive

The post US debt to hit WWII-era extremes with $64 trillion owed, but one market price decides whether Bitcoin benefits appeared first on CryptoSlate.

On some Ethereum L2s, bots now burn over half the gas just searching for MEV, and they don’t pay proportionally for it. That’s a scaling and market-fairness problem rooted in market structure.

The privacy conversation in crypto has finally escaped the “anonymous money” framing that dominated the last cycle. In early 2026, the urgency is economic and rooted in immediate financial realities.

The industry faces a structural problem: on-chain transparency generates extractable value at massive scale, and that extraction has grown into a scaling bottleneck rather than remaining a purely philosophical concern.

Flashbots has documented how MEV-related “search spam” can consume more than 50% of gas on major layer 2s while paying a small share of fees. Alchemy, citing EigenPhi data, points to nearly $24 million in MEV profit extracted on Ethereum over just 30 days, from Dec. 8, 2025, to Jan. 6, 2026.

When a hedge fund's $10 million DEX swap is visible in the mempool before it lands, slippage from sandwich attacks can dwarf gas costs.

Privacy is no longer a feature request. It's a market fairness problem.

Reads, writes, proving

The Ethereum Foundation's Privacy and Scaling Explorations team has standardized a three-part framework: private writes, private reads, and private proving.

Private reads relate to hiding transaction intent before execution. Private reads hide which users and apps are querying, such as balances and positions. Private proving is about making zero-knowledge proofs and attestations cheap and portable enough to embed everywhere.

Cais Manai, co-founder and CPO of TEN Protocol, argues the most urgent problem is reads. He stated that the industry has spent years obsessing over hiding who sent what to whom, the ‘write' side of privacy.

However, he noted:

“The real hemorrhage right now is on the read side: the fact that every balance, every position, every liquidation threshold, every strategy is sitting there in plaintext for anyone to inspect. That's what powers MEV. That's what makes institutional DeFi a non-starter.”

Over 112,000 ETH, roughly $400 million at current prices, has been extracted from users by sequencers and MEV bots feeding on the readable state, according to TEN's estimates.

The solution Manai advocates involves encrypting the entire execution environment using Trusted Execution Environments (TEEs). He explained:

“Contract state and logic stay encrypted while in use, not just at rest. Nobody reads what they're not supposed to, because there's nothing exposed to read.”

Tanisha Katara, founder of Katara Consulting Group, sees “writes” as the most costly problem right now.

According to her:

“Read privacy (RPC leakage, query patterns) is a slow-burning surveillance issue. Write privacy (front-running, sandwich attacks on institutional flows) is actively destroying value today. It's hundreds of millions per year being extracted from users because their transaction intent is visible before execution. “

Andy Guzman, who leads the Ethereum Foundation's Privacy and Scaling Explorations team, emphasizes that private reads are not widely understood.

He elaborated further:

“Private Writes is the one that currently takes most attention, it's the ‘first base' and arguably the first thing you have to do. Private Proving is the enabler of the other two, and it has advanced significantly in recent years. Still a lot to do.”

Ethereum private writes as the wedge

Private orderflow is a product.

Flashbots' MEV-Share operates as an order-flow auction in which users and wallets selectively share transaction data to redistribute MEV. By default, 90% of extracted value flows back to users rather than disappearing to bots.

Encrypted mempools represent the next layer. Shutter's research documents a pathway that uses threshold encryption and timed key release, integrated with proposer-builder separation.

Transactions enter the mempool encrypted and are decrypted only after the order is committed, eliminating the public mempool as an attack surface. The design acknowledges practical constraints: latency overhead, reorg edge cases, and coordination challenges across validator sets.

The economic pressure is real enough that major infrastructure providers are building MEV protection into default flows.

Alchemy's MEV overview characterizes the problem as systemic, with documented profit extraction totaling approximately $1 billion annually across major chains.

Silent leak becoming the next Ethereum headline

The Ethereum privacy roadmap now explicitly elevates private reads as a first-class track.

RPC privacy, which hides which addresses query which contracts, is important because query patterns expose strategies. If a bot observes that a specific address repeatedly checks a liquidation threshold, it knows the position is near collapse.

Wallet-side privacy primitives are where this gets practical. Stealth addresses are formally standardized under ERC-5564, enabling recipient privacy by generating unique, unlinkable addresses for each payment.

The specification exists, but broad Ethereum wallet adoption remains hindered by UX challenges, including scanning incoming payments, reconciling balances across ephemeral addresses, and the complexity of key management.

Manai's developer UX argument hits hardest here:

“The real UX bottleneck in 2026 is developer UX, the gap between ‘I want to build a private application' and actually being able to do it without learning an entirely new programming model, a custom language, or a bespoke proving system.”

He highlighted the need for full EVM/SVMs running within TEEs so developers can build encrypted dApps using the same tools, languages, and mental models they already have. No circuits to write, no custom VMs to learn.

Proving is improving fast enough

Zero-knowledge proving costs have collapsed. Ethproofs' 2025 review documents onboarding multiple zkVMs and provers, verifying roughly 200,000 blocks, and seeing latency fall approximately fivefold while costs dropped around fifteenfold over the year.

Proof generation is no longer the primary constraint on privacy deployment.

The Ethereum bottleneck has shifted to coordination and integration. Guzman identifies user experience and cost as the primary barriers for retail users, and regulation and compliance as the primary barriers for institutions.

He said:

“The cheapest transaction you can send on Ethereum is around 21,000 gas, roughly $0.02. A private transfer can easily be 420,000 gas or more. In periods of low activity, it's okay (around $0.40), but high activity could become costly for some use cases.”

Katara frames it as a coordination problem:

“Proof cost was the bottleneck in 2023-24. It's resolving. The coordination problem is the bottleneck: Who decides that shielded sends are on by default in a wallet? Who governs the key server threshold in an encrypted mempool? These are the unsexy mechanism design problems that determine whether privacy actually reaches users.”

Regulation is shaping and directing the Ethereum design space

Privacy builders are designing in the shadow of compliance requirements and legal risk.

The US Treasury delisted Tornado Cash sanctions in 2025, but legal uncertainty didn't vanish. Tornado Cash developer Roman Storm faced a mixed verdict: guilty on an unlicensed money-transmitting business charge, with the jury deadlocked or acquitted on other counts.

On the compliance side, the EU's crypto travel rule regime under Regulation (EU) 2023/1113 took effect on Dec. 30, 2024, requiring the collection and transmission of identities for crypto-asset transfers.

Privacy isn't disappearing, but being productized into forms that can survive regulation: selective disclosure, policy controls, auditability windows.

Permanent opacity scares regulators. Privacy that's auditable on a schedule is something they can work with.

Katara notes the irony:

“Permissioned and enterprise chains may deliver default privacy to institutional users before public chains deliver it to retail.”

What minimum viable privacy looks like in 2026

For the average MetaMask user in 2026, Katara expects one-address-per-application to become more common, optional shielded sends in a few wallets, and early RPC privacy features.

Guzman points to stealth addresses and shielded pools as already practical, with UI improving rapidly:

“I think we are going to see more L2s specializing in payments and private transfers.”

Manai is more pessimistic about defaults on most chains. He stated:

“Honestly? Close to nothing. The average user in 2026 is still broadcasting every swap, every balance check, every approval in plaintext. The minimum viable privacy should be: your balances aren't public, your trade intent isn't visible before execution, and you're not losing value to front-runners.”

Three paths forward

The first scenario is that MEV makes privacy unavoidable.

Wallets and apps continue to integrate private transaction pathways, such as private RPC, MEV-Share-style routing, and per-app addressing. The trigger is sustained MEV extraction plus more institutional capital moving on-chain.

The second scenario is confidential execution goes enterprise-first. TEEs and policy-based encryption gain traction in controlled environments, such as institutions, regulated apps, and private markets, because they prioritize business confidentiality over consumer anonymity.

The third scenario is that regulatory chill pushes privacy to an opt-in-only model. If enforcement focuses broadly on privacy tooling, retail privacy UX stays niche. Teams shift to selective disclosure and “policy privacy” designs, such as Privacy Pools, rather than generalized shielding.

Privacy in 2026 isn't a feature. It's a response to structural problems that became too expensive to ignore.

Ethereum MEV extraction, strategy leakage, and on-chain surveillance create quantifiable losses at an institutional scale. The technology to address those problems exists: encrypted mempools, stealth addresses, confidential execution environments, and zero-knowledge proving with collapsed costs.

The barrier isn't cryptography anymore. It's coordination, developer UX, and the unsexy work of making privacy the default rather than opt-in.

The industry spent the last cycle building privacy as an exception. The next cycle will determine whether privacy becomes infrastructure (boring, invisible, and everywhere) or remains a niche feature for the paranoid and the institutional.

The difference comes down to whether the people building wallets, apps, and protocols decide that leaking everything by default is a bug worth fixing. In 2026, the economists finally suggest it's a bug.

The post Crypto privacy just became an economic crisis as MEV bots siphon millions and most users still leak everything appeared first on CryptoSlate.

XRP is sliding even as the XRP Ledger (XRPL) rolls out features that supporters have long framed as a bridge to institutional adoption.

According to CryptoSlate's data, the token has been trading around $1.47, while a mix of fresh supply signals, cooling marginal demand, and broader risk-off behavior continues to pressure the price.

At the same time, banking giant Standard Chartered reportedly cut its end-2026 XRP target by 65% to $2.80 from $8.00 as part of broader reductions to major crypto forecasts.

The disconnect is familiar in crypto, as blockchain networks can deliver meaningful upgrades, activity can rise, and prices can still fall if the market is focused on near-term liquidity.

That is what XRP holders are confronting now. On one side are infrastructure changes such as Permissioned Domains and Token Escrow, tools designed to make a public ledger more usable for regulated participants.

On the other hand, there are indicators that often matter more in the short run, including large holders moving coins to exchanges, exchange-traded fund flows becoming uneven, and derivatives positioning suggesting that traders are leaning defensive.

The result is a market that treats XRP less as a single-asset technology story and more as a high-beta trade that responds quickly to shifts in supply and demand.

Whales are back on Binance, and the market reads it as supply

One of the clearest near-term signals is coming from on-chain flows into Binance.

CryptoQuant’s Whale Transfer Flow to Binance, tracked as a 30-day moving average, has risen to approximately 82.1 million XRP. This is the highest reading since last December and shows a re-acceleration after a quieter stretch.

Notably, that metric is not a verdict that whales are selling.

However, it is a reminder that coins entering an exchange are ones that can be sold quickly, and the market tends to treat this as a supply overhang until proven otherwise.

The numbers make the intuition concrete. At approximately $1.47, 82.1 million XRP represents roughly $120.7 million of notional supply appearing on a major venue over a 30-day window.

When demand is strong, such availability can be absorbed without significant damage, and prices can even rise as buyers compete for liquidity.

However, when demand is weak or inconsistent, it often requires lower prices to identify the next segment of buyers.

This is why exchange inflow signals matter most when they coincide with a wobble in marginal demand.

If the market believes there is a steady bid that reliably steps in, supply transfers become background noise. If that belief breaks, the same transfers become price-moving.

The ETF bid turned choppy, and that changed the absorption test

This increased supply comes as the demand side has been less consistent in the ETF wrapper. XRP spot ETF flow data indicate notable outflows following an initial period of uninterrupted inflows.

Data from SoSo Value indicate that the four XRP ETF products have experienced net outflows totaling more than $46 million over the past four weeks.

This contrasts significantly with the fund's early performance, which drew in fresh capital of over $1 billion during a 35-day inflow streak.

Related Reading

XRP ETFs are devouring supply at a rate that exposes a glaring $1 billion institutional secret

XRP's price surge to $2.37 is fueled by massive investment inflows into spot ETFs, marking a shift in capital allocation patterns.

Jan 7, 2026 · Oluwapelumi Adejumo

Those numbers matter because ETF flows can act like a steady bid, until they do not. Even if outflows later stabilize, the message traders take from a streak ending is immediate.

The market becomes less willing to assume that a structural buyer is showing up every day. That shift makes XRP more sensitive to supply signals, including the whale-to-exchange transfers now showing up on Binance.

In practice, traders begin conducting an absorption test. When ETF flows are consistently positive, large deposits to exchanges can be soaked up and price can hold.

However, when the ETF tape turns uncertain, the same deposits become harder to digest, and the market tends to reprice lower until it finds buyers willing to step in without the comfort of a steady ETF bid.

Derivatives are crowded bearish, which increases downside risk and upside sensitivity

Meanwhile, derivatives are adding another layer to the setup.

Data from CoinGlass indicate that XRP funding rates have turned negative over the past few weeks, with repeated spikes above -0.02%.

Negative funding typically means shorts are paying to hold positions, a sign that bearish positioning is crowded.

Crowded bearish positioning is a double-edged signal. If spot demand stays soft and supply continues to hit exchanges, the market can grind lower because shorts feel comfortable pressing, and longs are reluctant to step in.

In this case, token liquidity thins out, upward bounces are sold, and the price can continue to decline even without a fresh catalyst.

At the same time, heavy short positioning makes the market more sensitive to upside surprises. If any demand catalyst shows up, a renewed ETF inflow streak, a macro relief rally, or a clear rollover in exchange inflows, the move can accelerate quickly as shorts cover.

That is why a weak tape can coexist with sudden, sharp rebounds in crypto.

For now, the derivatives signal is aligned with the other near-term indicators. The market is positioned defensively, which makes it harder for positive news on the protocol side to translate into immediate price strength.

The upgrades are real, but they are not instant XRP-buy mechanisms

The contrast with XRP Ledger development makes this moment frustrating for long-term holders. The chain has shipped upgrades that speak directly to the institutional narrative.

Permissioned Domains (XLS-80) went live on Feb. 4 with 91% validator approval. The feature is designed to create credential-gated zones on a public ledger, a framework that can support regulated participation without turning the network into a private chain.

Token Escrow (XLS-85) activated on Feb. 12, extending XRPL’s native escrow functionality beyond XRP to Trustline-based tokens and multi-purpose token structures.

At the same time, Permissioned DEX would launch on Feb. 17. This builds on other features and allows institutions to participate in compliant on-chain activity while keeping sensitive user data off the ledger.

These additions strengthen the pitch that XRPL wants to be an institutional settlement layer, with tools that make compliance and conditional settlement more practical.

However, upgrades such as these are not immediate demand drivers for XRP itself, as their adoption takes time, and integrations have to be built.

For context, Token Escrow may increase the amount of XRP locked up as reserves, but the effect is likely to be modest at this stage.

XRPL ties certain on-ledger objects to owner reserves held in XRP. Even so, the incremental demand generated by Token Escrow may be small relative to the supply forces currently driving price movements.

Using the reserve math of assuming 0.2 XRP per object, 100,000 new escrow objects would require approximately 20,000 XRP in additional reserves. Even at 1 million escrow objects, the reserve requirement rises to roughly 200,000 XRP.

In other words, Token Escrow strengthens the network’s settlement plumbing, but the near-term XRP reserve demand it creates remains minor relative to the volumes implied by the large exchange inflows of over $120 million.

That does not mean the network is stagnant. XRPL usage indicators have been improving.

XRPL DEX activity has surged, with a 14-day moving average of DEX transaction counts reaching about 1.014 million, a 13-month high, based on CryptoQuant data.

At the same time, Ripple’s stablecoin footprint is expanding, with RLUSD's market capitalization estimated at approximately $1.52 billion.

This is the paradox of the moment. Usage indicators can improve while price falls if the new activity does not translate into incremental XRP demand at the same pace as the supply and risk dynamics driving the market.

What investors are watching next, and the scenarios being traded

Over the next 4 to 12 weeks, XRP’s path is likely to hinge on whether supply signals cool faster than demand returns. The market is already pricing a set of scenarios, even if traders describe them differently.

One scenario is bear continuation, which would result in the token trading at approximately $1.10 to $1.35. In that path, whale-to-exchange flows stay elevated, and ETF flows remain inconsistent, keeping spot demand too soft to absorb supply.

Another is base-building, and XRP would oscillate between $1.35 to $1.80. In that version, exchange inflows plateau, and ETF flows stabilize into small net-positive weeks, allowing the price to form a floor even without a macroeconomic tailwind.

The third is a reflexive rebound, $1.80 to $2.40. This outcome would likely require a short streak of stronger ETF inflows or macro relief that collides with crowded bearish derivatives positioning, forcing cover and accelerating upside.

The core point is not the exact range. It is the mechanism. XRPL’s roadmap may strengthen the long-term case, but in the near term, XRP is still priced by the marginal buyer and seller.

Related Reading

The scorecard for an XRP investment thesis that separates Ripple licensing from XRPL utility signals

What breaks the case for XRP investment thesis when Ripple progress fails to show up on XRPL

Feb 3, 2026 · Liam 'Akiba' Wright

Currently, the marginal signals are more supply arriving on exchanges, weaker ETF flow support, and a market mood that rewards caution.

If those inputs flip, even modestly, the same market that is ignoring institutional-grade upgrades today can reprice them quickly.

The post Standard Chartered slashes XRP price target by 65% as whales send millions of tokens to Binance appeared first on CryptoSlate.

Bitcoin's recent price crash towards $60,000 did more than just shave billions off market capitalizations or liquidate leveraged positions.

It served as a massive, chaotic stress test that exposed a widening behavioral fracture between the two most dominant venues in the digital asset economy.

On one side stands Coinbase, the largest US exchange, where Chief Executive Officer Brian Armstrong has painted a picture of stoic resilience among retail investors.

On the other hand lies Binance, the leading offshore venue, where on-chain data depict frenetic selling and risk aversion.

This divergence matters because it reframes the narrative for the weeks ahead.

Thus, Bitcoin’s drop to the $ 60,000s and subsequent rebound is not simply a tale of retail buying the dip.

Instead, it is a complex saga about which specific retail cohort, on which specific venue, actually sets the marginal price during a leverage-driven unwind.

As Bitcoin hovers near $70,000 again, the sustainability of the recovery depends entirely on whether US-linked spot demand can flip from a headwind to a tailwind fast enough to counter the selling pressure observed offshore.

The Coinbase fortress and the premium disconnect

The narrative emerging from Coinbase is one of conviction.

According to Armstrong, the platform’s retail customer base refused to capitulate even as prices tumbled. He noted that these investors have been “resilient,” actively adding to their Bitcoin and Ethereum holdings in native units rather than fleeing to cash.

Furthermore, Armstrong noted that these customers largely maintained their February balances at or above the levels observed in December.

In crypto culture, this is the classic “diamond hands” behavior as the small investors hold their nerve and accumulate assets when fear grips the broader market.

However, CryptoSlate's analysis of on-chain data has identified a discrepancy between this account of retail resilience and the exchange's actual pricing mechanics.

The Coinbase Premium Index, a metric provided by analytics firm CryptoQuant, tells a cooler story about US spot appetite.

This index is often used by traders to infer whether Coinbase is trading at a premium or discount relative to offshore venues.

For much of the recent correction, this indicator remained predominantly negative.

A sustained negative premium is typically interpreted as signaling softer US-linked spot aggression relative to the rest of the market.

While Armstrong’s observation about retail's persistence may be accurate, the negative premium suggests that they were not the dominant force.

The reconciliation of these two viewpoints lies in the concept of the “marginal price-setter.”

Armstrong may be right about retail behavior within Coinbase, whereas the premium remains negative if the marginal buyer on Coinbase is not a retail user.

If retail’s net buying is incremental (akin to Dollar-Cost Averaging) and not large enough to overwhelm other forces, such as institutional de-risking, ETF outflows, arbitrage flows, or macro hedging, then the price will still tend to be lower.

Recently, CryptoQuant flagged a notable upward surge in the index. Although it remains below neutral, the rebound hints that US selling pressure may finally be easing.

The critical factor to watch is whether this shift is sustained. A brief blip does not change a market regime, but if the premium turns positive and stays there, it would imply that Coinbase-linked demand is back in the driver’s seat.

Binance selling was loud, and whales did not lead it

While Coinbase users held the line, the tape on Binance showed a very different character.

On-chain data showed a pronounced burst of selling concentrated on the exchange, driven primarily by recent buyers rather than long-term holders.

CryptoQuant’s breakdown of exchange inflows over the past month clearly illustrated this dynamic. Short-term holders averaged approximately 8,700 BTC per day on Binance during the volatile period.

In the context of exchange mechanics, large inflows are often a precursor to selling, as investors move assets from cold storage to trading venues to liquidate.

Crucially, the heaviest inflows came from entities categorized as “fish” and “sharks” (mid-sized holders), while inflows from “whales” were comparatively small.

This distinction is vital because it indicates that the crash was neither a coordinated whale distribution nor a breakdown in conviction among long-term holders. Instead, it showed recent participants reacting to price action.

Notably, trader commentary supports this view. Crypto trader Dom noted that Binance had effectively “dumped” about 7,000 BTC at market over a two-day period, while other venues exhibited more neutral flows.

This data point provides insight into where aggressive selling appeared to have the greatest impact. In this scenario, Binance served as the execution venue for broad de-risking rather than as the source of deeper systemic stress.

Price moves on the margin, and the margin is venue-specific

This is where the Coinbase and Binance “characters” become more than trivia.

Markets move on the margin. A steady base of holders can exist alongside a falling price if another cohort is forced to sell, or chooses to sell, with more urgency than the buyers are willing to absorb at that moment.

If Coinbase retail is holding and nibbling, why did the price slide so hard? Because it only takes one channel of outsized net selling to dominate price discovery, especially during thin liquidity.

Binance has the capacity to absorb that activity and also the reflexive role that comes with being a primary venue for global traders. When sellers choose it, the rest of the market often follows.

That establishes a clearer framework for what matters next, and the question becomes where the marginal demand is.

First, does US-linked spot demand return strongly enough to change the marginal bid? A sustained flip in the Coinbase Premium Index from negative to positive is one signal traders will watch, because it would suggest the marginal buyer is back on Coinbase-linked rails.

Second, does Binance cease to be the de-risking outlet? If short-term holder inflows and mid-sized entity selling fade, it implies that reactive supply has largely been spent. Markets can stabilize when sellers are exhausted, even before strong new demand arrives.

Third, do institutional flows stabilize? CoinShares has reported significant outflows from crypto investment products in recent weeks, a reminder that even if one retail cohort is steady, asset-manager and ETF or ETP flows can dominate at inflection points.

Fourth, do derivatives markets keep pricing downside? CryptoSlate has previously reported heavy downside hedging into late-February expiries, with attention focused on strikes well below spot.

Persistent demand for deep downside protection can act as a psychological ceiling on rallies until it rolls off or unwinds, because it reflects a market that is still paying to insure against another decline.

What next for Bitcoin?

Based on the interaction between Coinbase's resilience and Binance's selling, three scenarios have emerged for the next two to eight weeks.

The “bull case” sees a demand regime shift. In this scenario, Coinbase Premium turns positive and remains there as institutional outflows slow materially, and Binance selling subsides.

Here, the market transitions from “post-liquidation repair” to “spot-led recovery,” and rallies are more likely to stick rather than fade.

The “base case” involves choppy consolidation.

Here, retail traders hold, but the premium oscillates around neutral without breaking into a sustained positive regime.

At the same time, Binance inflows diminish, but macro remains uncertain, and institutions stay cautious.

As a result, BTC price action compresses into a range, whereas leverage rebuilds slowly. This is the kind of environment in which headlines appear dramatic, but net progress is limited.

The “bear case” envisions a second leg down. If the premium stays negative, flows remain weak, and downside hedging remains dominant, the market risks revisiting prior lows.

Without a returning marginal bid, rallies become opportunities for de-risking, and the narrative shifts from “healthy reset” to “deeper derisking.”

The post Binance traders are panic selling but HODLing on Coinbase — the $60,000 BTC stress test appeared first on CryptoSlate.

The year 2026 has already carved a permanent place in Monero’s history, characterized by a parabolic rally that briefly silenced skeptics, followed by a sharp deleveraging event that tested the network's structural resilience. As of February 17, 2026, Monero (XMR) is navigating a complex landscape where technical "oversold" signals clash with mounting regulatory headwinds from major global jurisdictions.

Monero Price Action: The 2026 Rollercoaster

To understand where Monero is headed, we must analyze the two distinct phases that defined the first seven weeks of the year. The XMR/USD price started 2026 with an aggressive "privacy premium" rally, fueled by institutional interest in non-transparent liquidity.

The Rise: January’s Parabolic Surge

In mid-January 2026, Monero reached a historic milestone, printing a local top near $799.89. This 195% increase from early 2025 lows was driven by:

1. Political Tailwinds: Unexpected support from high-profile US policymakers who reframed privacy as a "constitutional right."
2. Macro Uncertainty: Global economic shifts led investors toward "financial autonomy" assets.
3. Technical Discovery: XMR entered a price discovery phase after clearing multi-year resistance levels.

The Fall: The February Regulatory Squeeze

The descent was as rapid as the ascent. By early February, $XMR had retraced over 57% of its gains. The primary catalysts for this "deleveraging cascade" included:

• Exchange Delistings: Major platforms, including Binance, accelerated the removal of privacy-focused pairs to comply with the EU’s MiCA framework and the US CLARITY Act.
• Profit Taking: After the $800 peak, massive "long" liquidations (totaling nearly $240,000 in a single 24-hour window) accelerated the downward momentum.
• Systemic Pressures: A broader cooling of institutional appetite, evidenced by significant outflows from Bitcoin ETFs, dragged the entire altcoin market lower.

Monero Coin Analysis: Identifying the Floor

The chart for XMR-USD currently shows a battle for survival at key Fibonacci retracement levels.

Currently, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near 33.69, indicating that Monero is approaching oversold territory. While the price remains below its 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), the $300 zone has emerged as a critical "buy the dip" region for long-term holders.

Fundamental Outlook: Privacy vs. Compliance

Despite the price volatility, Monero’s on-chain activity remains remarkably stable. According to recent data from Chainalysis, while exchange liquidity has thinned due to delistings, the use of XMR in decentralized models and non-custodial swaps has reached new heights.

Upcoming Network Upgrades

The Monero community is preparing for several "hardening" upgrades later in 2026:

• FCMP++ (Full-Chain Membership Proofs): Aimed at mathematically increasing the anonymity set.
• Seraphis Implementation: A modernization of the address structure to improve wallet syncing and scalability.

These technological advancements suggest that while the "price kurs" may be under pressure, the network's utility as the gold standard for privacy remains unchallenged.

Monero Price Prediction 2026: What’s Next for XMR?

For the remainder of Q1 and Q2 2026, analysts anticipate a period of consolidation. If Monero can maintain a daily close above the $300 support, a re-test of the $450-$500 range is plausible by the second half of the year. However, a decisive break below $300 could open the doors for a return to the $230 "macro floor."

The "frog" is leaping once more. After weeks of horizontal trading that left many retail investors wondering if the hype had finally evaporated, PEPE delivered a massive 23% price surge over the past seven days. This explosive move was not an isolated event; it occurred in lockstep with Bitcoin’s triumphant return to the $70,000 level, highlighting PEPE’s status as a high-beta asset that amplifies market momentum.

The Real PEPE Recovery

Traders looking for confirmation of a trend reversal have found it in the recent volume spikes. The 23% rally wasn't just a "dead cat bounce"; it was supported by a 283% explosion in trading volume. As Bitcoin stabilizes near $70,000, liquidity is rotating back into high-risk memecoins, with PEPE leading the charge. This price action confirms that the asset remains the primary "Social Index" for the 2026 crypto market.

High-Beta Volatility and BTC Correlation

In the world of cryptocurrency trading, "high-beta" refers to assets that move more aggressively than the market leader.

When Bitcoin rises 5%, PEPE often jumps 15-20%.

Conversely, when Bitcoin dips, memecoins typically face steeper corrections. This relationship is why PEPE is often the first to "moon" during a market recovery, serving as a magnet for speculative capital.

Pepe Coin Price Analysis: Breaking the $0.0000036 Support

The recent surge was sparked by a successful defense of the $0.0000036 support zone. This level has become a fortress for "diamond-hand" holders.

Whale Accumulation and Short Squeezes

According to on-chain data from Santiment, the top 100 PEPE wallets accumulated approximately 23 trillion tokens during the recent consolidation. This institutional-grade buying at the "bottom" created a supply shock. When Bitcoin broke $70k, a massive wave of short positions was liquidated, "squeezing" the price up toward the $0.0000048 resistance level.

Key Price Levels to Watch

Based on the above chart structure:

• Immediate Resistance: $0.0000052. A breakout here could open the doors to $0.0000068.
• Macro Target: Analysts at major exchanges suggest that if the current "Meme Supercycle" continues, $PEPE could target $0.0000146 by late 2026.
• Support Floor: The $0.0000036 level remains the most critical area to hold to avoid a bearish trend continuation.

The 2026 Outlook: Is the Frog "Dead" or Just Resting?

The narrative that "PEPE is dead" has appeared multiple times since its inception. However, the data suggests otherwise. PEPE has transitioned from a simple internet joke into a functional pillar of the emerging Bitcoin Layer-2 (BTCFi) economy.

Why Memecoins Dominate Sentiment

While tokens with "utility" often struggle to explain their value proposition, PEPE's value is simple: attention. In a digital economy, attention is the most valuable currency. As long as PEPE maintains its 1.2 million+ unique holders and high social engagement, it will continue to outperform traditional altcoins during bullish phases.

Conclusion: A Selective Meme Season

The 2026 market is becoming more selective. While many "copycat" memes have faded into obscurity, PEPE’s deep liquidity and massive community give it a "too big to fail" status within its niche. The recent 23% surge is a clear signal that whenever Bitcoin breathes, the frog is ready to jump.

What Is CC Canton Token and Why Is It Rising So Fast?

The CC Canton token has quickly climbed into the Top 20 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, overtaking established names such as $TON, $SUI, $XMR, $SHIB, $LTC, $HBAR, and $XLM. After launching in November 2025, CC has surged toward a $6 billion valuation in just a few months — a remarkable pace for a newly tradable token.

But what exactly is CC, and does it have the fundamentals to push toward the Top 10 next?

What Is the CC Canton Token?

CC is the native token of the Canton Network — a blockchain infrastructure project focused on institutional finance and regulated markets.

Unlike retail-focused smart contract chains, Canton positions itself as:

• A public blockchain with privacy controls
• Built for regulated financial institutions
• Designed for tokenized real-world assets (RWAs)
• Focused on selective disclosure and compliant composability

Its value proposition centers around bringing Wall Street infrastructure on-chain while preserving the privacy and regulatory constraints institutions require.

That narrative has gained serious traction in 2026 as capital rotates toward real-world asset tokenization and institutional blockchain adoption.

How Did CC Enter the Top 20 So Quickly?

CC launched publicly in November 2025. After an initial listing spike and sharp correction, the token formed a base near $0.06 before rallying nearly 3x toward the $0.18–$0.19 area.

With a circulating supply of roughly 37.7 billion tokens, price expansion rapidly pushed its market cap above $6 billion — enough to surpass several legacy altcoins.

The key drivers behind its rapid rise include:

• Strong institutional narrative positioning
• Fully circulating supply at launch
• Limited float relative to valuation
• Capital rotation into RWA and compliance-focused chains

However, trading volume remains relatively modest compared to its market cap, suggesting valuation expansion has not yet been fully stress-tested by heavy liquidity flows.

Can CC Canton Token Make It Into the Top 10?

To enter the Top 10, CC would likely need to surpass assets such as $LINK, $TON, or other multi-billion dollar incumbents.

For that to happen, several conditions must align:

1️⃣ Sustained Narrative Strength

The institutional adoption and tokenized securities theme must continue dominating crypto capital flows.

2️⃣ Visible Institutional Usage

Real transaction growth and confirmed financial partnerships would strengthen valuation justification.

3️⃣ Volume Expansion

A breakout above the current all-time high near $0.195 with rising volume would signal strong market conviction.

4️⃣ Stable Tokenomics

Clear unlock schedules and transparent allocation structure are critical to maintain investor confidence.

Without those elements, CC may consolidate within the Top 20 rather than accelerating further.

Technical Outlook: Breakout or Consolidation?

From a market structure perspective:

• Support zone: $0.14–$0.15
• Major support: $0.12
• Key resistance: $0.18–$0.195 (ATH zone)

A decisive break above the ATH could open momentum toward higher market cap tiers. Failure to expand with volume could result in extended sideways consolidation.

Is CC a New Institutional Infrastructure Play?

Unlike meme-driven rallies, CC’s rise appears more structured. The token’s price action shows:

1. Post-launch distribution
2. Accumulation phase
3. Gradual trend expansion
4. Controlled volatility

That pattern often reflects strategic positioning rather than speculative mania.

If Canton succeeds in becoming a backbone for regulated on-chain finance, its valuation could continue expanding structurally.

If adoption lags, the token may trade more in line with broader altcoin cycles.

Final Verdict: Early Top 10 Contender or Overextended Rally?

The CC Canton token has achieved in months what many projects take years to accomplish — entry into the Top 20.

Whether it breaks into the Top 10 will depend less on hype and more on real institutional usage, liquidity growth, and sustained capital rotation toward regulated blockchain infrastructure.

The coming months will determine whether CC becomes a foundational infrastructure asset — or remains a powerful but narrative-driven rally.

The Current State of Solana (SOL)

As of February 16, 2026, Solana ($SOL) is trading in a tight consolidation range between $78 and $86. After a volatile start to the year, which saw the token decline approximately 31% from its January highs, the market is looking for a catalyst. While the price action has been bearish, the underlying network health suggests a massive disconnect between valuation and utility.

Solana’s ecosystem recently hit a historic milestone, with its Real-World Asset (RWA) sector surpassing $1.66 billion in total tokenized value. Despite this, the SOL price remains under pressure from broader market liquidations and a technical "head and shoulders" pattern that has traders on edge.

Solana Price Analysis: Breaking Down the Chart

The daily chart for SOL/USD reveals a complex battle between bulls and bears. Following the peak in late 2025, the price has formed a series of lower highs, finding temporary solace at the $80 psychological support level.

Key Support and Resistance Levels

• Immediate Support ($75 - $80): This is the "demand zone" where institutional buyers have historically stepped in. A daily close below $75 could open the doors to a deeper correction toward $60.
• Major Resistance ($95 - $100): Reclaiming the $100 mark is essential for a trend reversal. This level aligns with the 50-day EMA, which currently acts as a ceiling for any relief rallies.
• The Bearish Target ($50 - $60): Some technical analysts point to a completed "head and shoulders" breakdown, suggesting that if $80 fails, the next logical stop is the $50 range, last seen in the early stages of the 2024 bull run.

Expert Insight: Solana is currently oversold with an RSI near 28. Historically, such levels have preceded significant bounces, but with negative funding rates persisting for over 16 days, the market is leaning heavily short.

Fundamental Catalysts: The Road to $250

While the chart looks heavy, the fundamental narrative for 2026 is arguably the strongest in Solana's history. Two major upgrades—Alpenglow and Firedancer—are scheduled to finalize their rollouts this year.

1. The Firedancer Upgrade

Firedancer, developed by Jump Crypto, is a new validator client that has successfully processed over 1 million transactions per second (TPS) in test environments. In early 2026, its full mainnet implementation is expected to eliminate network outages and reduce latency to sub-150 milliseconds. This level of performance is critical for attracting high-frequency trading firms and global payment giants like Western Union, which is already testing stablecoin settlements on the chain.

2. The RWA and Institutional Surge

Solana is pivoting from being a "memecoin hub" to an "internet capital market." Institutional players like Morgan Stanley and WisdomTree have expanded their presence on the network, tokenizing everything from U.S. Treasuries to money market funds. This institutional "sticky" capital provides a floor for the token that speculative retail volume cannot.

Solana Price Prediction 2026: Bull vs. Bear Case

Based on current data and projected network growth, here are the potential scenarios for SOL through the remainder of the year:

Conclusion: Is SOL a Buy at $80?

For long-term investors, the current price represents a significant discount relative to the network's growing utility. While short-term volatility could see SOL dip toward the $60 support, the technological leap promised by Firedancer and the maturation of the RWA ecosystem make a strong case for a recovery toward $200 by H2 2026.

The cryptocurrency market has entered a volatile phase in February 2026, characterized by significant price corrections and a shift in investor sentiment. After reaching a spectacular all-time high of approximately $126,198 in October 2025, Bitcoin ($BTC) has faced a challenging retracement, currently trading in a range that has many questioning if a new "crypto winter" is upon us.

As we approach the second half of February, the "Who, What, and Why" of the current market structure becomes critical for traders. The primary drivers include a massive deleveraging event, shifting macroeconomic indicators, and a cooling of the post-ETF hype that dominated the previous year.

Current Market Situation: Orderly Deleveraging or Bear Market?

Early February 2026 saw a sharp drawdown, with Bitcoin falling below the psychological $70,000 mark and even testing levels near $61,000. Unlike the chaotic crashes of the past, analysts at VanEck describe this move as an "orderly deleveraging." Futures open interest has dropped by over 20% in just a few sessions, shedding excess speculative heat without a complete structural failure of the market.

Key Factors Influencing February Performance:

• Institutional Outflows: Data indicates that outflows from Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs have begun to outweigh inflows, signaling that traditional investors are taking profits or rotating into defensive assets like gold.
• Macroeconomic Headwinds: The Federal Reserve has maintained a neutral but restrictive rate stance near 3.75%. With inflation proving sticky around 2.4%, the "higher for longer" narrative is dampening the appeal of risk assets.
• Tax Season Pressures: The introduction of the new IRS Form 1099-DA for the 2026 tax season has added a layer of compliance complexity, potentially leading some US-based investors to liquidate positions to cover tax liabilities.

Bitcoin Price Prediction for Late February 2026

The outlook for the remainder of the month is one of cautious consolidation. Technical structures suggest that Bitcoin is currently trapped in a dominant bearish trendline originating from its 2025 highs.

Technical Support and Resistance Levels

To understand where the Bitcoin price might head by February 28, we must look at the immediate liquidity zones:

Most prediction markets and analysts, currently assign low odds (less than 10%) to Bitcoin reclaiming $100,000 before the end of February. Instead, the consensus points toward a trading range between $64,000 and $75,000 as the market searches for a definitive bottom.

The "Post-ATH" Correction Pattern

It is vital to recognize that the current price action follows a historical precedent. Traditionally, Bitcoin enters a cooling-off period 12 to 18 months after a halving event. Having peaked in October 2025 (roughly 17 months after the 2024 halving), the current 40-50% drawdown is mathematically consistent with previous cycles.

While the "Fear and Greed Index" sits in Extreme Fear (around 8-10 points), seasoned investors often view these levels as a "reset" rather than a terminal decline. The underlying infrastructure—such as the growth of Layer 2 solutions and institutional custody—remains stronger than in 2022.

Conclusion and Strategic Outlook

As we move toward March, the crypto market is in a "wait-and-see" mode. For Bitcoin to regain its bullish momentum, it must first stabilize above the $68,000 mark and reclaim its 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). While a return to all-time highs seems unlikely for the rest of February 2026, the current deleveraging process is healthy for the long-term sustainability of the market. 

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Ethereum treasury firm Bitmine has bought more ETH, setting a new internal high in its holdings.

XRP sees over $117 million worth of its tokens moved within wallets, sparking speculation about what whales could be up to amid the market downtrend.

Ripple USD (RLUSD) tops $1.5 billion milestone in institutional growth surge.

Shiba Inu (SHIB) surges 30% from February lows, but can it break the infamous "Black Friday" resistance? Discover the key technical levels and why $0.00000680 is the ultimate gatekeeper for the meme cryptocurrency.

Altcoin news just delivered a reality check for anyone waiting on the sidelines. Michael Saylor doubled down on his Bitcoin obsession, telling CNBC on February 10 that Strategy will buy Bitcoin every single quarter forever, even if BTC crashes to $8,000. The company already holds 714,644 BTC purchased for $54.35 billion, making it the largest corporate holder globally with roughly 3.4% of all Bitcoin in circulation.

The altcoin season hopium just took another hit as Saylor’s latest buy of 1,142 BTC for $90 million at an average price of $78,815 keeps institutional capital locked into Bitcoin rather than flowing into alts. This altcoin market updates reality is exactly why smart traders are looking at presales like DeepSnitch AI for parabolic gains.

Why altcoin season keep getting delayed, according to market data?

Michael Saylor’s conviction level is off the charts. Despite Strategy reporting a $12.4 billion loss in Q4 2025 due to unrealized losses on digital assets, he’s not budging. During the CNBC interview, Saylor made it clear the company has enough cash to cover operating expenses and dividends for 2.5 years without touching its Bitcoin stack.

The altcoin season index currently sits at a dismal 30 out of 100, way below the 75 threshold needed to confirm we’re actually in altseason. Only 30% of the top 50 altcoins have outperformed Bitcoin over the past 90 days. It means we’re deep in Bitcoin season with no rotation in sight.

Bitcoin dominance trends show BTC holding above 60% market share, a level that typically crushes altcoin news bulls. Every time institutional money enters crypto in 2026, it goes straight into spot Bitcoin ETFs that now hold over $130 billion in assets.

Fidelity, BlackRock, and other Wall Street giants are funneling capital exclusively into BTC, leaving alts to fight for scraps.

The altcoin market updates paint a brutal picture. While BTC trades around $66,000 after hitting $126,000 in October 2025, most alts have been absolutely demolished. The traditional four-year cycle that used to deliver massive altseasons has been replaced by an ETF-driven market where retail capital rotation barely exists anymore.

DeepSnitch AI rules altcoin news with live utility and 164% presale gains

While the altcoin season index stays stuck in the mud and Bitcoin dominance trends keep alts suppressed, DeepSnitch AI is crushing it with over 164% gains in presale. The token has pumped from $0.01510 to $0.03985 in Stage 5, and 4 out of 5 crypto AI surveillance agents are already live and working.

Built for volatile markets where information moves faster than retail can process it, DeepSnitch deploys an LLM-powered intelligence layer monitoring on-chain transactions, social channels, and private groups simultaneously. Paste any contract address into SnitchScan and get instant risk scoring for honeypots, liquidity traps, and suspicious tax structures.

AuditSnitch runs security analysis in plain language, flagging vulnerabilities before you approve transactions. The platform tracks stealth wallets and delivers private alerts on whale movements that institutional desks pay premium subscriptions to access.

Presale math works differently when you’re buying actual utility. Drop $5,000 at $0.03985 and receive 125,500 DSNT tokens. The DSNTVIP50 bonus code adds 50% more tokens, pushing your total to 188,250 without spending extra.

The project climbed from $0.01510 to the current pricing, already delivering 164% returns for the earliest holders. With AI agent technology exploding across crypto and 100x to 300x projections based on comparable platform valuations, this presale window is basically peak leverage before bigger money and institutions show up after launch and reprice everything fast.

Bitcoin holds strong despite volatility, while altcoin news shows weakness

BTC currently trades around $68,000 on February 16 after crashing from its October 2025 all-time high of $126,000, marking a brutal 47% correction. The altcoin news on Bitcoin actually shows institutional conviction with Michael Saylor’s Strategy adding 1,142 BTC for $90 million at an average price of $78,815, bringing total holdings to 714,644 BTC worth $54.35 billion.

Analysts project BTC could recover toward $100,000 by year-end as the four-year halving cycle plays out.

Even if Bitcoin doubles from current levels to $132,000, that’s a 2x. Solid for blue chip crypto, but nowhere near the parabolic upside available in the presale market, where early positioning on projects with live utility actually delivers life-changing returns.

Solana shows promise but limited upside compared to presale opportunities

SOL currently trades around $85 on February 16 after briefly dipping below $70 for the first time since December 2023. The altcoin news on Solana actually shows some green shoots with $92.9 million in institutional inflows during January, making it the second-highest recipient of capital after Bitcoin.

Analysts project SOL could hit $200-$300 by year-end if the network successfully shifts from meme coins toward stablecoins and tokenization.

But here’s the trader reality check on altcoin market updates: even if Solana triples from current levels to $240, that’s a 3x. Not bad for established coins, but nowhere near the parabolic upside available in the presale market where early positioning actually matters.

Conclusion

Altcoin season might eventually show up when Bitcoin dominance finally breaks down, but waiting for that rotation while sitting in coins already up 50x from their lows makes zero sense. The real alpha in altcoin market updates points toward DeepSnitch AI that combines working products with presale pricing that won’t last forever.

Visit the official website for priority access and check out X and Telegram for the latest altcoin news and community intelligence.

FAQs

Is altcoin season actually coming in 2026 based on current altcoin news?

The altcoin season index needs to crack 75 but sits at 30 while Bitcoin dominance trends hold above 60%. ETFs changed the game completely. Institutional money goes straight to BTC now, not rotating through alts like 2021.

Why does Bitcoin dominance trends matter so much for altcoin market updates?

When BTC dominance stays high, it means Bitcoin is sucking up all the oxygen in the room. Capital flows to safety and regulatory clarity, which is Bitcoin right now with $130B in spot ETFs. Alts only rip when dominance drops hard and money rotates out. That rotation hasn’t happened yet in 2026’s structure.

Can Solana really deliver solid gains despite weak altcoin season index readings?

SOL has institutional backing with $92.9M January inflows and strong fundamentals around stablecoins. Could it run to $200-$300? Yeah, definitely possible. But that’s 3x-4x upside from $85. Compare that to DeepSnitch AI with live products offering 100x potential. Depends on your risk tolerance and timeline, honestly.

The post Altcoin News: Michael Saylor Pledges To Buy BTC Forever As Altcoin Season Index Stays At 30 While Bitcoin Dominance Holds 60% But DeepSnitch AI Presale Rockets 164% appeared first on Blockonomi.

The 2026 cryptocurrency market has entered a period of intense volatility and indecision, leaving many traders on edge. A riskier environment has swept through the entire market, forcing major altcoins to test multiple support levels

The Stellar price is currently feeling this pressure, slipping below key moving averages. Similarly, the Hedera price today is battling to hold the $0.10 psychological floor, as cooling momentum and stalling resistance zones temper the excitement surrounding its recent enterprise partnerships.

While the broader market wavers, BlockDAG (BDAG) is the clear standout, having secured a massive $450M+ in funding from over 312,000 holders. With RPC nodes live across 15 exchanges and 35,000+ airdrop claims already processed, the network is primed for its high-octane March 4 Genesis trading launch. Traders are rushing to secure the final $0.00016 entry before what experts are calling 2026’s most explosive launch.

Stellar Price Drops 1%, but Downside Risk Exceeds 80%

Stellar price closed the week at $0.1685, slipping 1.00% and trading below all major moving averages: MA-20 at $0.1732, MA-50 at $0.2023, and MA-200 at $0.2958. This sustained weakness signals ongoing bearish momentum, with RSI at 43.0 and negative MACD and ADX readings confirming persistent selling pressure. The nearest resistance stands at $0.1775, and the probability of further decline remains.

Despite steady ecosystem growth through partnerships with MoneyGram, IBM, and Mastercard, the Stellar price continues to face regulatory caution and limited investor confidence. Experts emphasize that unless the Stellar price moves decisively above $0.1775, consolidation or additional downside pressure is expected.

Hedera Price Today Holds Near Key $0.10 level

Hedera price today is trading around $0.1006 after a 2.3% drop in the last 24 hours, with volume down roughly 27% and the Altcoin Season Index at 31, showing weaker risk appetite for altcoins. On the 4‑hour chart, price recently bounced from the February low near $0.0715 and then stalled in the $0.105–$0.108 resistance zone, while local support is around $0.095, followed by $0.090 if that level breaks.

Momentum indicators show the rally cooling as RSI eases from recent highs and MACD flattens, which fits the current consolidation under resistance. If Hedera price today can hold above $0.095 and reclaim $0.104, a move back to $0.108 and possibly the low $0.11 region is possible, but a drop below $0.095 would quickly put $0.090 in play as the next downside target this week.

Final Call: 125M BlockDAG Left Before March 4 Genesis Trading!

BlockDAG’s building phase is officially over; the project is now prepping its high-octane market phase. With exchange listings finalized and RPC nodes live across 15 major exchanges, the infrastructure is primed for the Genesis trading launch on March 4. This represents the final opportunity to secure your position at the entry price of $0.00016 before the open market dictates the value.

To meet overwhelming demand, the network recently injected 100,000,000 additional BDAG into this final accumulation window. However, the surge in activity has been relentless; only 125 million BDAG tokens remain in this final pool. With over 35,000 airdrop claims already processed, the momentum is accelerating toward a total sell-out well before the trading floor opens.

The BlockDAG network is stronger than ever. The project has already secured a record $450M+ in funding and onboarded 312,000+ holders. Once spot trading begins on March 4, followed by rapid futures expansion as liquidity scales, the current fixed pricing will vanish instantly. This transition from controlled distribution to market-driven demand is where the most significant “re-ratings” historically occur.

For those searching for the best crypto to buy today, the window is closing in real-time. Once the 125M tokens are gone, the “private” door locks forever, leaving latecomers to compete with market bots and high-frequency traders on launch day.

Secure your $0.00016 BDAG entry, claim your airdrop, and prepare for the March 4 Genesis event. When the market takes over, speed and early positioning will be the only metrics that matter.

Quick Recap

While the Stellar price struggles below its moving averages and faces an 80% downside risk, the Hedera price today remains locked in a cooling consolidation phase near the $0.10 level. Both assets leave traders searching for more aggressive growth catalysts.

But it’s BlockDAG that is commanding status as the best crypto to buy today. With only 125M tokens left before the March 4 Genesis trading launch, the window to secure its final $0.00016 entry price before an explosive launch is vanishing. With RPC nodes live across 15 exchanges and 35,000+ airdrops claimed, the transition to market-driven pricing is imminent.

Once this final accumulation phase hits zero, the private pricing disappears forever, leaving only the open market’s volatility for those who hesitated to lock in their positions now.

Private Sale: https://purchase.blockdag.network

Website: https://blockdag.network

Telegram: https://t.me/blockDAGnetworkOfficial

Discord: https://discord.gg/Q7BxghMVyu

The post Stellar & Hedera Bearish in 2026 – Traders Turn to BlockDAG’s Final $0.00016 Entry Before March 4’s Trading appeared first on Blockonomi.

Bitcoin’s recovery attempts above $72,000 have all faced strong resistance, with the price now down to the $68,000 level after the recent recovery attempt. Amid the recent price action, various crypto experts have continued to point out bearish signals, suggesting that the BTC price bottom has not happened yet.

As a result, a short-term price downturn lies ahead. With forecasts now showing more pain, investors are turning their heads towards new coins like the BFS crypto. The other crypto pulling investors is DeepSnitch AI (DSNT).

Positioned as an AI crypto project, DeepSnitch AI turns raw crypto data into market intelligence, supporting successful front-running of market swings. This crypto is now going for $0.03985, with close to $1.63 million raised in the fifth presale stage. What’s even more interesting is the fact that degens now see DSNT as the next 100x play for 2026.

Bitcoin is still bearish; Experts flag warning signs

Bitcoin analysis by several experts shows that BTC has not yet reached a bottom, meaning more downturn could be underway, before a stronger recovery emerges. According to data by CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s Bull Score Index Mapped to the price metric, shows that Bitcoin remains extra bearish, with the bull score index at zero.

This score corresponds with bulls exiting the market, with Garrett Jin, the latest, to liquidate his BTC holdings. On the other hand, Matrixport pointed to the frequency of the large drawdowns as a sign of Bitcoin entering a bear market. He further urged investors to remain disciplined to avoid complacency.

On the day, the king crypto is trading at $68,521.05, after a 1% dip from previous session levels.

Can BFS crypto outshine these coins in 2026?

1. DeepSnitch AI: Why it’s the ultimate 100x bet for 2026

The crypto market was previously dominated by whales, meaning they had access to market-moving data before the rest of the market. While they still do, DeepSnitch AI is giving the same power to retail investors.

Small investors can now place trades with the confidence of insiders, thanks to DeepSnitch AI. This market analytics platform uses a suite of five AI tools to identify sentiment shifts, FUD changes, and large wallet movements to give investors accurate calls.

Investors are now FOMO-buying into DSNT to secure their access to DeepSnitch AI upon the official launch. However, the platform is already functional, giving early participants a closed loop of information before the rest of the market steps in.

At $0.03985, DeepSnitch AI offers you an opportunity to venture into a utility-focused crypto.  This project has also raised close to $1.63 million in five presale stages, signalling strong investor participation.

2. BFS crypto price prediction for 2026-2030

Beast Financial Services (BFS) is a Solana-based meme coin associated with the famous YouTuber, MrBeast. According to the BFS crypto project overview, this crypto acts as a community-driven and speculative token used for trading, staking, and decentralized finance (DeFi) on the Solana blockchain.

The BFS coin price updates show that this crypto was priced at $0.00088339 on Monday. Moving forward, the BFS price prediction highlights that the token could reach a potential high of $0.012 by the end of 2026 and up to $0.077 by 2030.

However, despite looking bullish, the latest BFS token news shows that MrBeast has never confirmed in any way that he is associated with the project.

3. Bittensor price prediction 2026

Bittensor (TAO) has often found itself among the trending coins since the start of 2026. According to recent data, this coin has continued to perform well, despite the rest of the market facing increased downturn. Over the past 24 hours, for instance, Bittensor had surged by 1.6% to trade at $188.78.

The recent surge in the price of TAO pushes it to a 19.2% surge on the weekly timeframe. As a result, crypto analysts are predicting a further bullish breakout for this coin. In a post on X, Crypto Catalysts shared that Bittensor could reach as high as $750 if it manages to break the resistance at $250.

Final verdict

The BFS crypto project overview shows that this crypto has already launched on different exchanges. This crypto’s price prediction suggests a rally to  $0.012 by the end of 2026 and $0.077 by 2030.

However, BFS may struggle to match DeepSnitch AI’s gains as projects hint at a 100x run in 2026. Unlike BFS, which is a highly volatile meme coin per the BFS coin price updates,  DeepSnitch AI has clear AI utility, adding to its 100x prospects.

Visit the official website for more information, and join X and Telegram for community updates.

FAQs

1. Is BFS a scam?

There’s no public confirmation of whether BFS is a scam or not. However, the BFS token news positions this crypto as a highly speculative and volatile token. On the other hand, DeepSnitch AI is utility-backed and audited by SolidProof and Coinsult, adding to its credibility.

2. Is BFS crypto a good investment?

According to the BFS crypto project overview, this token is highly speculative, meaning a frenzy could easily send this crypto parabolic. However, for investors looking for promising cryptos, DeepSnitch AI could be just the perfect opportunity.

3. How high will BFS go in 2026?

The BFS coin price updates and forecasts suggest that BFS crypto could reach as high as  $0.012 by the end of 2026. DeepSnitch AI, on the other hand, is expected to post 100x gains in 2026.

The post BFS Crypto Price Prediction for 2026 & Beyond as DeepSnitch AI Offers a 100x Opportunity, While Bittensor Eyes Breakout After Dip appeared first on Blockonomi.

TLDR

• The Permissioned DEX amendment on the XRP Ledger will activate in 24 hours.
• This upgrade introduces controlled environments for trading within the decentralized exchange.
• The amendment allows regulated financial institutions to participate while adhering to compliance requirements.
• XRP’s demand remains strong, with nearly $4.5 million flowing into XRP-focused products in the last 24 hours.
• The Permissioned DEX amendment builds on the previous XLS-80, enhancing the platform’s functionality for permissioned domains.

The Permissioned DEX amendment is set to go live on the XRP Ledger within 24 hours, marking a key milestone for the platform. This upgrade will introduce controlled environments for trading within the XRP Ledger’s decentralized exchange (DEX). The development is expected to facilitate broader participation, especially from regulated financial institutions.

XRP Ledger’s Permissioned DEX Amendment Activation

The Permissioned DEX amendment, also known as XLS 81, is set to activate on the XRP Ledger tomorrow. This amendment will create controlled trading environments, allowing only authorized users to place and accept offers. By integrating permissioning directly into the DEX protocol, it is designed to offer a secure space for regulated entities to trade.

According to XRPScan, the countdown to activation stands at just 23 hours. This feature builds upon the previous XLS-80, which focuses on Permissioned Domains. As part of this upgrade, users within these domains will have the ability to trade freely but only within a pre-approved group.

XRP’s Continued Demand Despite Market Shifts

XRP remains in strong demand, even as the broader cryptocurrency market experiences fluctuations. Rayhaneh Sharif Askary, the head of product and research at Grayscale, spoke about the consistent interest in XRP at a recent community event. “Advisors are constantly asked by their clients about XRP,” said Sharif Askary, underlining its continued relevance.

In fact, XRP has become one of the most talked-about assets, trailing only behind Bitcoin in some circles. This increasing interest is reflected in the recent data compiled by SoSoValue, showing XRP funds receiving nearly $4.5 million in the last 24 hours. Despite a market drop, the demand for XRP shows no signs of slowing down.

At the time of writing, XRP had fallen by 1.78% in the last 24 hours to $1.45. However, it had gained 3.59% over the past week. This indicates that, while it may face short-term volatility, XRP continues to attract attention from investors.

The introduction of the Permissioned DEX amendment is seen as a crucial step in XRP’s journey toward broader institutional adoption. By offering a controlled environment for trading, the XRP Ledger aims to cater to the needs of regulated financial institutions.

The integration of permissioning features within the DEX protocol allows these institutions to participate without violating compliance requirements. In the long term, this move could play a pivotal role in attracting more institutional investors to the XRP ecosystem.

The post XRP Ledger Introduces Permissioned DEX, Boosting Institutional Access appeared first on Blockonomi.

TLDR

• The TON Foundation has partnered with Banxa to expand stablecoin payment infrastructure for SMEs across the Asia-Pacific region.
• The collaboration integrates Banxa’s fiat-to-crypto network with the TON blockchain to support B2B and C2B transactions.
• TON Pay, launched on February 11, enables Telegram Mini Apps to accept Toncoin and USDT directly within the app.
• The partnership allows businesses to benefit from low transaction fees and fast settlement times under one second.
• OSL Group, which owns Banxa, raised $200 million in equity financing in January 2026 to further its expansion in the digital asset sector.

The TON Foundation has announced a partnership with Banxa, a crypto infrastructure provider under OSL Group, to enhance stablecoin payment processing across Asia-Pacific. This collaboration aims to support small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in the region with seamless digital asset payments. Businesses will be able to utilize The Open Network (TON) blockchain for settlements, cross-border transactions, and more efficient money movement.

TON Foundation and Banxa Collaborate to Improve B2B and C2B Transactions

The new partnership integrates Banxa’s fiat-to-crypto on- and off-ramp network with TON’s blockchain infrastructure. This will simplify business-to-business (B2B) and consumer-to-business (C2B) payment processes for companies in the Asia-Pacific region. Through this collaboration, TON Foundation aims to help SMEs tap into the benefits of blockchain for easier and faster cross-border payments.

Nikola Plecas, vice president of payments at TON Foundation, emphasized that the partnership aligns with their goal of expanding commercial use cases for TON globally. “This collaboration reflects our emphasis on generating TON-based use cases that provide long-term commercial utility for builders and businesses around the world,” he said in a statement. With the integration of Banxa’s services, businesses will gain access to a licensed infrastructure network across various regions, including Asia, the U.S., Europe, and beyond.

The Launch of TON Pay and Its Integration with Telegram

The partnership also comes shortly after the February 11 launch of TON Pay, a payment SDK designed to support Telegram Mini Apps. The new solution allows businesses to accept Toncoin and USDT directly within the Telegram app. This is aimed at targeting Telegram’s massive user base of 1.1 billion active monthly users.

TON Pay ensures seamless transactions with an average fee of less than $0.01 and near-instant settlement times. The integration with Telegram also positions the TON blockchain to handle high-volume transactions with minimal fees and ultra-fast processing. This provides a powerful use case for digital asset payments, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region.

OSL Group’s Role and Recent Funding

OSL Group, which owns Banxa, has strengthened its position in the digital asset sector through several rounds of funding. In January 2026, OSL completed a $200 million equity financing round. This followed a $300 million raise in 2025, marking it as one of the largest public equity raises in Asia’s digital asset market. The company’s ongoing expansion aims to further integrate cryptocurrency solutions into mainstream finance.

This partnership between the TON Foundation and Banxa highlights the growing importance of stablecoins in driving business payments. By simplifying digital asset transactions, the collaboration positions both companies to better support the needs of businesses in the region. With the integration of Banxa’s global payment infrastructure, the TON blockchain is poised to become a key player in international settlements and cross-border transactions for SMEs.

The post TON Foundation Joins Forces with Banxa to Simplify Payments Across APAC appeared first on Blockonomi.

A year after Bubblemaps first detailed the on-chain mechanics behind the LIBRA meme coin collapse, the blockchain analytics firm has released a new update tracking the renewed trading activity of the project creator Hayden Davis.

This time, it has highlighted significant trading losses rather than insider gains.

From Insider Wins to Meme Coin Losses

According to Bubblemaps’ latest findings, Davis has resumed on-chain activity after a period of wallet inactivity, but is now down roughly $3 million after trading multiple Solana-based meme coins, such as PUMP, TROVE, and PENGUIN.

The update stated that Davis had largely disappeared from on-chain trading following Bubblemaps’ August 2025 investigation, which showed he had made millions by sniping the hip-hop star Kanye West’s YZY token shortly after launch. After those profits, the wallets linked to him went dormant.

However, Bubblemaps reports that new wallets within the same cluster have become active again this year. In fact, over the past 30 days, the firm identified several large transfers into a deposit address linked to Davis, labeled CPGZ1i, which ultimately led to six active wallets under the same cluster.

Transaction analysis further indicated that Davis was trading as recently as five days ago and focused primarily on trending Solana meme coins. Unlike previous episodes, the majority of these trades were unprofitable. Bubblemaps estimated losses of approximately $2.5 million on PUMP, $100,000 on PENGUIN, $29,000 on KABUTO, and smaller losses on tokens such as LOUD and BAGWORK.

LIBRA Fallout Didn’t End It

The findings show Davis did not exit the market following the LIBRA collapse, which had previously been linked to over $100 million in insider profits, according to Bubblemaps’ report published exactly a year earlier. That earlier investigation mapped a network of wallets connected to LIBRA and MELANIA token launches, and demonstrated coordinated sniping activity, cross-chain fund transfers, and quick cash-outs tied to addresses associated with Davis and related entities.

On Monday’s update, Bubblemaps observed that instead of disappearing, Davis’ financial position evolved in other ways. For instance, a judge unfroze $57 million of his assets, he continued to generate profits through opportunistic trades such as YZY, and he received a sizable MET airdrop. The latest data now shows Davis engaging in routine on-chain trading activity again.

The post Hayden Davis Resurfaces After LIBRA Crash, But His Latest Trades Are Deep in the Red appeared first on CryptoPotato.

The meme coin pippin (PIPPIN) is deep in red territory today (February 17) after posting substantial gains over the past few weeks.

The question now is whether this will be a temporary correction or the beginning of a major collapse.

What Comes Next?

The asset’s price has retraced by nearly 20% on a daily scale and now trades at around $0.59 (per CoinGecko’s data). PIPPIN’s market capitalization has tumbled below $600 million, putting it at risk of losing its prestigious spot among the 100 largest cryptocurrencies.

Several analysts have recently warned that the meme coin could be a high-stakes gamble, advising traders to stay away from it. Earlier this week, X user Ted said he doesn’t know a single person who holds PIPPIN and wondered what might have driven the rally.

He thinks the whole thing is “a CEX cabal play,” similar to Mantra (OM). In crypto slang, “cabal” refers to a small, coordinated group of insiders who are believed to manipulate a token’s price with their actions. Recall that just a year ago, OM was worth almost $9, whereas its market cap briefly exceeded $8 billion. Since then, the asset has crashed by staggering 99%.

Crypto Rug Muncher shared a similar thesis. The X user argued that the only people still active in the PIPPIN ecosystem are “the cabal members who crimed it to $700 million MC in the first place.”

“This isn’t a project holding the active interest of the space; it’s organized manipulation designed to bait in naive retail for exit liquidity. The project is a hollow, abandoned shell with no fundamentals, and as soon as the insiders manipulating this get bored, it’s headed straight back to shitcoin hell where it belongs,” they added.

Crypto GVR and ALTSTEIN TRADE also gave their two cents. The former spotted the price reversal that occurred in the past hours to forecast that a major collapse to $0.10 may be coming next. The latter argued that PIPPIN’s “top is in,” predicting that all the gains will be lost and that the valuation will tumble below $0.10.

Something for the Bulls

Despite the grim forecasts from the aforementioned analysts, the meme coin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests a short-term rebound could be on the horizon.

The technical analysis tool tracks the speed and magnitude of recent price changes and helps traders spot potential turning points. It runs on a scale from 0 to 100, and ratios below 30 indicate that PIPPIN is oversold and might be on the verge of a resurgence. On the contrary, readings above 70 are considered precursors of a correction. Currently, the RSI stands just north of the bullish zone.

The post Pippin (PIPPIN) Dips 20% Daily: Brutal Collapse on the Way? appeared first on CryptoPotato.

Bitcoin’s Entity-Adjusted Liveliness metric peaked in December 2025 and has begun reversing downward, signaling the end of the distribution phase and the start of a new accumulation period that historically lasts between 1.1 and 2.5 years.

According to analyst Axel Adler Jr., the on-chain signal means investors should prepare for an extended market reset rather than a quick recovery, although institutional demand through ETFs may alter the traditional cycle pattern.

Shift From Distribution to Accumulation

In a post published on February 17, Adler wrote that Bitcoin’s Entity-Adjusted Liveliness reached 0.02676 in December 2025 and has started to decline. The indicator tracks the ratio of spent coin days to created coin days, which is filtered to remove transfers within the same holder.

According to his chart, past cycles in 2020 and 2022 showed the same structure, where the metric peaked shortly after price highs and then trended lower during accumulation periods lasting 1.1 to 2.5 years.

Adler noted that the price of Bitcoin surpassed $126,000 in October 2025 before falling by about 45%, adding that liveliness tends to lag price because it is cumulative.

Current readings are still below short-term averages, which the market watcher said are a sign of early-stage transition rather than confirmation of a full trend. He added that a further drop in the 90-day average below the 365-day line would strengthen the case for a longer reset phase.

Analysts Weigh Holder Behavior and Macro Backdrop

Despite the on-chain signs, there seems to be no clear agreement about how severe the downturn could be. For example, in a recent interview, Matt Hougan of Bitwise said the current crypto slump is milder than earlier cycles, such as 2018 or 2022. He cited stronger infrastructure, the emergence of crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and institutional participation in digital assets from firms including BlackRock and Apollo to back his stance.

Meanwhile, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong said that balances held on the platform by smaller investors in February have matched or exceeded levels recorded in December last year. It means retail investors are actively buying the dip, with crypto’s market cap falling by about 49% from its peak near $4.4 trillion in October 2025. However, the current decline is not as steep as the 88% wipeout seen in 2018 or the 73% drop in 2022.

Still, some commentators are staying cautious, with the likes of analyst Mippo suggesting that current conditions could still develop into a prolonged winter as valuations adjust to clearer regulations and more focus on revenue.

That said, metrics tracking long-term investors can add nuance to the overall picture. Recently, Joao Wedson of Alphractal pointed out that the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss for long-term holders sits around 0.36, meaning that overall, they remain in profit. According to him, major rallies historically kicked off only after that figure turned negative, when even patient holders faced losses.

The post Analyst Warns of Multi-Year Reset as Bitcoin Liveliness Falls appeared first on CryptoPotato.

Bitcoin’s broader structure continues to reflect a dominant bearish trend, yet the recent price action shows a short-term recovery attempt from the major demand zone around $60K–$62K. At this stage, the market is positioned between a higher-timeframe bearish structure and a developing lower-timeframe corrective rebound.

Bitcoin Price Analysis: The Daily Chart

On the daily timeframe, the asset is still trading within a well-defined descending channel, with both the upper and lower boundaries clearly guiding the macro structure. After losing the $79K level and breaking decisively below the $75K range, Bitcoin accelerated toward the major blue demand zone around $60K, where a strong reaction occurred.

The recent bounce from this region has pushed the price back toward the mid-$60Ks to high-$60Ks area, but the overall structure remains corrective. The price is still trading below the channel’s midline and beneath the 100- and 200-day moving averages, both of which are sloping downward.

As long as Bitcoin remains below the broken $75.3K support and under the $78.9K–$81.4K Fibonacci cluster, the broader bias on the daily timeframe stays bearish. The current recovery appears to be a pullback within a dominant downtrend rather than the start of a confirmed reversal.

BTC/USDT 4-Hour Chart

Zooming into the 4-hour timeframe, the corrective nature of the rebound becomes more evident. After the sharp capitulation wick into the $60K region, the price formed a local base and initiated a rebound toward the $70K area. However, this recovery is unfolding beneath a descending trendline and below the prior breakdown structure.

The $73K–$76K supply zone, which previously acted as support, now stands as a strong resistance area. Until the asset reclaims this region and invalidates the sequence of lower highs, the short-term structure remains vulnerable to another leg down.

The recent consolidation around the high-$60Ks reflects a temporary equilibrium between buyers defending the higher low and sellers protecting overhead resistance. A decisive break above the descending trendline could open the door toward the mid-$70Ks, while failure to sustain momentum increases the probability of a renewed test of the $60K demand zone.

Onchain Analysis

On-chain data from the Long-Term Holder SOPR (LTH-SOPR) suggests that sustained downside pressure is beginning to affect even Bitcoin’s most resilient cohort, marking a subtle but important shift in market dynamics.

Although the annual average LTH-SOPR remains elevated at 1.87, the metric has recently dropped below the critical 1.0 threshold, reaching 0.88—a configuration not seen since the late stages of the 2023 bear market. Historically, such breakdowns tend to occur during more advanced corrective phases, when even strong hands begin reducing exposure under sustained pressure.

That said, broader timeframe data paints a more nuanced picture. The monthly average SOPR still stands at 1.09, implying that, on aggregate, long-term holders are still realizing profits. Full-scale capitulation has typically coincided with much deeper compressions, with prior bear market bottoms marked by monthly SOPR levels approaching 0.5.

In this context, the current move does not yet confirm structural capitulation. Rather, it signals early stress among long-term participants—an inflection point that could either stabilize if market conditions improve or evolve into deeper distribution should selling pressure intensify.

The post Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC Must Reclaim These Key Levels to End the Downtrend appeared first on CryptoPotato.

The popular altcoin has been rejected at the long-term channel’s midline, triggering a liquidity sweep. Nevertheless, XRP is in a short-term recovery phase within a broader bearish framework, and a confirmed breakout from the $1.2–$1.8 range will likely determine the next impulsive move.

Ripple Price Analysis: The Daily Chart

On the daily timeframe, the latest impulsive decline drove the price into the major demand zone around the $1.2 region, where a strong bullish reaction emerged. This area has acted as a structural floor, preventing further continuation toward lower levels.

Despite the rebound, the asset is still trading below the channel’s midline and beneath the dynamic resistance formed by the descending structure. The $1.8 region now stands as a critical static resistance level, aligning with prior support turned resistance. As long as XRP remains below this zone and under the channel’s upper half, the broader structure remains corrective.

A decisive daily close above the $1.8 region would shift momentum and open the path toward the next supply area near $2.1–$2.2. Conversely, failure to sustain above the recent higher low increases the probability of another rotation back toward the $1.2 demand zone.

XRP/USDT 4-Hour Chart

Zooming into the 4-hour timeframe, the rebound from $1.2 appears more structured, forming a short-term base followed by a bullish push into the $1.8 supply zone. However, the recent move above this level resulted in a false breakout, as indicated on the chart, with the price quickly rejecting and returning below the resistance.

This rejection reinforces the significance of the $1.8 region as a mid-term supply barrier. Currently, XRP is fluctuating between $1.2 and $1.8, forming a local consolidation pattern after a false breakout, with $1.5 mark acting as the internal supply zone.

If buyers manage to reclaim and hold above $1.5 with strong momentum, the next upside target would be the $1.8 daily resistance. On the other hand, continued rejection from this zone could push the price back toward the $1.35 support and potentially retest the major $1.2 demand area.

The post Ripple Price Analysis: $1.65 Rejection Shakes XRP – Breakdown or Bullish Reset Next? appeared first on CryptoPotato.