Bitcoin's future hinges on retail interest as institutional access fails to spark a market revival.

The post Lyn Alden: Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is evolving, retail participation remains muted, and integration into finance is crucial for global adoption | The Wolf Of All Streets appeared first on Crypto Briefing.

Flawed token models are driving short-term trading, hindering long-term growth in the crypto market.

The post Namik Muduroglu: Token models incentivize selling over holding, governance structures in DAOs are failing, and regulatory fears stifle innovation | Unchained appeared first on Crypto Briefing.

Paradigm's expansion into AI and robotics highlights a strategic shift towards integrating advanced technologies with decentralized systems.

The post Paradigm plans $1.5 billion fund to expand into AI, robotics appeared first on Crypto Briefing.

Escalating military actions risk destabilizing the region, potentially leading to broader geopolitical tensions and economic repercussions.

The post Trump confirms launch of operation against Iran appeared first on Crypto Briefing.

Heightened geopolitical tensions can lead to significant volatility in cryptocurrency markets, impacting investor confidence and market stability.

The post Bitcoin tumbles after Israel launches strike on Iran, triggering $100M in longs liquidated in 15 minutes appeared first on Crypto Briefing.

Bitcoin Magazine

DCTRL Vancouver: Iconic Bitcoin Hackerspace Closes Downtown Location After 12 Years Due to Zoning Changes

DCTRL, a Bitcoin hub and hacker space out of Vancouver, the fair-weather Canadian city, has announced the sunset of its downtown basement location, iconic among early adopters for its tinkerer mindset and hardware hacker culture. The community will be migrating to a new location in the coming weeks, and updates to the vision of the hub. The Vancouver Bitcoin community is renowned for having set up the first Bitcoin ATM in History, with DCTRL specifically having hosted a variety of renowned characters that, over the years, gave this industry much of its cultural and innovative flair. 

Visited by some of the most influential people in the Bitcoin and broader Crypto industry in its 12 year run, DCTRL is far from done being a hub of the Canadian Bitcoin and Crypto scene. Preparing to move due to a change in zoning laws, plans to relaunch in a new location are in the works, as active members consolidate the historical moments, relationships, and lessons learnt during perhaps the longest-running Bitcoin hackspace experiment in the young industry’s history.

It all started at Waves cafe on Howe Street, in Vancouver. The Bitcoiniacs, a group of four OGs that operated a Bitcoin brokerage at the time — still active to this day — decided it was time to get the robots involved. So they rigged up an ATM to sell bitcoin to the public, rallied the local Vancouver tech, finance, and burgeoning crypto scene, and hosted a historical launch party. 

“The first Bitcoin ATM in the world was a massive event,” said Freddie Heartline, a Bitcoin enthusiast and co-founding member of the DCTRL hacker space. In an exclusive interview with Bitcoin Magazine, Heartline went on to recall the event, saying, “Oh man, the vibes were incredible. It literally felt like a really good rave. But it was smarter. Way smarter. That’s how it all came about, actually.” referring to the founding of DCTRL.  

The timing for the Bitcoin ATM event was perfect; it was October 2013, and Bitcoin had just gone from a few dollars to almost 150, consolidated for a few weeks around 100, and was getting ready to take a shot at 1,000 a coin. The energy across the Bitcoin community as electric, this was the end of the longest bear market in Bitcoin history, in a way this rise in price was proof that Bitcoin was here to stay.

The launch of the first Bitcoin ATM, as a result, made national and international news. The idea of a Bitcoin ATM being operational was considered a historical milestone in the adoption of Bitcoin as money. 

Tens of thousands of Canadian dollars worth of bitcoin were sold that day and over the coming weeks, likely creating a few millionaires over the years, spawning copycat ATM projects and even a handful of Bitcoin ATM manufacturing companies to boot. It also inspired the creation of the DCTRL hacker space, called “Decentral Vancouver” at the time. 

Cameron Gray, another Bitcoin enthusiast who was volunteering with the Bitcoiniacs event and a friend of Heartline, was the one who had the idea. “Cam was absolutely an essential part of founding Decentral.” Heartline recalled “He literally turned to me one day – as he was operating the bitcoin ATM at Waves – after I complained about the lighting at the coffee shop – and said ‘we should open a space.’ And that was it.”

Soon, they had secured a basement location in downtown Vancouver, grimy, humid, but cozy. Over the years, this spot became a hub for Bitcoin engineers, founders, crypto enthusiasts, and eventually legends. The decor got better, the leaks patched, and the walls decorated with Bitcoin art. The empty spaces filled up with hardware of all kinds, modified to operate or somehow interact with the orange coin. 

Heartline and Gray were starting a lifestyle project of sorts, and while Bitcoin may have been doing well at over $1,000, it would soon correct back to $300, another bear market, which had important consequences for the industry. During that time, the bills for DCTRL’s rent had to be paid somehow, and so Heartline moved in. Not into the basement, but onto the rooftop. In order to keep the lights on during that bear market, he literally set up a tent. Not a bad setup either if you have a look.

DCTRL started hosting meetups, the Vancouver Startup Weekend community got wind of it, and a gentleman known as Gregg Peacock began to visit the hub. Soon enough, the Startup Weekend events were taking place at DCTRL as well, pulling in the local tech startup scene. Before long, even Vitalik Buterin, founder of Ethereum and former writer for Bitcoin Magazine, showed up. 

Peacock had another important contribution to DCTRL; he made a donation that created a symbol for the local community. He donated $500 to the space with one condition: “It has to be used for something creative …” Heartline recalled, “so I found a Pepsi machine on Craigslist. Peacock even helped us move the thing in a pickup. Him, me, Cam, and Mike Olthoff moved that fucking insanely heavy and awkward thing down the stairs – lol almost killing Cam.” The Pepsi machine would soon get backwards engineered, hacked, and rebranded to the Bepsi, for obvious Bitcoin reasons.

In the above video, you can see Peacock making an on-chain transaction to the pop machine, milliseconds later dropping a soda for him on Q. The satisfying sound of Bitcoin being used as money for the small pleasures of life became a staple of DCTRL. A digital version of the Bepsi was eventually made, which fans from all over the world used to make donations. Many iterations of the underlying software took place over time, rig-wired into the Cold War era pop machine with a Raspberry Pi and some hacker ingenuity. A decade later, even the Mayor of Vancouver Ken Sim, dropped by to pay homage to this staple of Vancouver hacker culture, this time buying a soda from Bepsi with a lightning payment. 

Today, the Bepsi supports practically every Bitcoin protocol, a testing ground for the cutting edge of Bitcoin technology, including protocols like Taproot Assets, Spark, and Arcade OS. “We even issued our own Bepsi token. One Bepsi equals one soda from the Bepsi machine… it’s like a stable coin… pegged to the price of the pop can.” said Heartline. The Bepsi, which in a way was inspired by the Bitcoin ATM, also inspired copycats, such as the 21up vending machine hosted in a nearby Blockchain lab known as MintGreen. To this day, funds collected by the Bepsi machine have gone to support the operation of the hacker space and cover costs, serving as a cornerstone of the community. Control over the Bepsi’s underlying wallets and tech stack in a way setting rank among the most active members and hosts. 

Visited by Legends

Throughout the years, big names within the industry visited or engaged with DCTRL in one way or another. Vitalik Buterin personally visited the space and hung out there in the very early days of Ethereum, as demonstrated by this photograph hung on their wall, featuring Gray, Heartline, Vitalik, and another active member referred to as Kyle. 

The founders of CaVirtex, the first Canadian Bitcoin exchange, were also photographed there. This brand is little known now as they were bought out by Kraken years later, but they had a deep influence on the Canadian Bitcoin scene, selling the coin to Canadians since before the first bull run, which peaked at $30 per coin. Without this exchange, many of the big Canadian Bitcoiners may not have gotten in. 

Virtually, Bitcoin celebrities also attended DCTRL events throughout the years, answering questions from the local crowd, such as Roger Ver, before the fork wars, Andreas Antonopoulos, and Willy Woo. Erik Vorhees, who came to fame in Bitcoin for creating the first major instant swap, crypto-to-crypto exchange called ShapeShift, is seen in this video doing a fireside chat at DCTRL during a local meetup. 

Even one famous scammer attended the hub, a man who was a regular in the Canadian Bitcoin scene in the 2014 era, and who to this day remains one of the unsolved mysteries of crypto-related crime, Gerald Cotten of QuadrigaCX. Cotten, whom I personally met multiple times in Toronto at the time, was a charming and smooth-talking entrepreneur in the scene at the time, before his turbulent professional history was revealed and the exchange went down in bankruptcy, leaving millions of dollars of user funds unpaid. Cotten allegedly died suddenly and mysteriously in India just before the exchange went bankrupt, taking the crypto keys with him, but many who were personally affected by this centralized exchange collapse are skeptical of that story. 

Further evidence of DCTRL as a microcosm of the industry as a whole was seen years later during the fork wars, as Gray, the other primary co-founder of the hub, took the ‘big block’ side of the debate, resulting in intense debates and ultimately a falling out with the local community and broader Bitcoin scene. Gray, nevertheless, is highly respected and appreciated by the active members of DCTRL for his contributions to the DCTRL social scene, which would inevitably suffer from the same forks and tensions that the Bitcoin protocol went through at the time. 

During those difficult times, DCTRL served as a forum and debate space for these topics, even hosting Peter Rizun of the alternative implementation Bitcoin Unlimited — a big blocker — who debated Taylor, seen on the right in the photo below. 

Overall, DCTRL enjoyed more than 12 years of continuous operation, boasts hundreds of events hosted, over 1500 registered community members, and 69 recorded talks published on YouTube, which touched many elements of the Bitcoin and crypto industry. Throughout this whole time, the hub was operated entirely by volunteers and sustained through public donations and, of course, the Bepsi. 

As the location of DCTRL gets rezoned by the city government, and a new building will be going up in its place, the active members and hosts of DCTRL, have begun organizing a transition to a new location, alongside an update to the brand.

According to DJ, one of the active members who prefers to stay pseudonymous, the hub has had record attendance in recent months. And while the location will change, its future is brighter than ever. Those who would like to be a part of the future of DCTRL can learn more at www.DCTRL.wtf. 

This post DCTRL Vancouver: Iconic Bitcoin Hackerspace Closes Downtown Location After 12 Years Due to Zoning Changes first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Juan Galt.

Bitcoin Magazine

Senate Democrats Press DOJ, Treasury to Probe Binance Over Trump Ties, Iran Sanctions Allegations

Eleven Democrats on the U.S. Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee are pressing the Trump administration to investigate Binance over allegations that the exchange facilitated illicit finance activity tied to Iran and may be violating its 2023 federal settlement.

In a letter sent Friday to Attorney General Pam Bondi and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, the senators urged the Justice Department and Treasury to conduct a “prompt, comprehensive review” of Binance’s sanctions compliance controls. 

The lawmakers cited recent media reports alleging that billions of dollars in digital assets flowed through the platform to Iranian entities, including groups linked to terrorism.

The letter was led by Sen. Mark Warner and signed by Ranking Member Elizabeth Warren along with Sens. Chris Van Hollen, Jack Reed, Catherine Cortez Masto, Tina Smith, Raphael Warnock, Andy Kim, Ruben Gallego, Lisa Blunt Rochester and Angela Alsobrooks.

According to the senators, Binance compliance personnel uncovered evidence last year that roughly $1.7 billion in digital assets had been routed through the exchange to Iranian entities, including the Iran-backed Houthis and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. 

In one instance, a Binance vendor allegedly moved $1.2 billion in funds connected to Iran-linked actors. The letter also claims that Iranian users accessed more than 1,500 Binance accounts and that the platform may have been used in efforts by Russian actors to evade sanctions.

The lawmakers raised concerns that employees who identified the transactions were dismissed and that Binance has become less responsive to law enforcement requests. They argued that such actions would conflict with the company’s obligations under its 2023 plea agreement and related settlements.

In 2023, Binance pleaded guilty to federal charges including violations of U.S. sanctions laws and anti-money laundering failures. The company agreed to pay more than $4 billion in penalties and committed to sweeping reforms under U.S. supervision, including enhanced know-your-customer procedures and sanctions screening. 

The senators contend that the latest reports call into question whether those reforms have been implemented and maintained. In its settlement with the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control, Binance committed to implement controls capable of identifying and blocking prohibited transactions. 

Allowing $1.7 billion in digital assets to move to sanctioned Iranian entities, they wrote, would be inconsistent with that commitment.

Binance and President Donald Trump

The letter also touched on Binance’s recent business relationships involving President Donald Trump and his family’s crypto ventures. Lawmakers pointed to the exchange’s promotion of USD1, a stablecoin issued by World Liberty Financial, a Trump family-backed project.

According to the letter, Binance offered interest incentives for users holding USD1, assisted with technology related to the token and accepted a $2 billion investment tied to it.

The senators further referenced Trump’s pardon last fall of Binance founder Changpeng Zhao, who had pleaded guilty to failing to implement an effective anti-money laundering program and served a four-month prison sentence. 

The lawmakers argued that these connections heighten the need for what they described as a “thorough, impartial” probe.

Binance’s dubious ties with Russia

Beyond Iran-related concerns, the letter cites Binance’s recent launch of crypto-linked payment cards in parts of the former Soviet Union. The senators warned that similar products have been used to bypass restrictions on the Russian financial system. 

They also noted the exchange’s partnership with Kyrgyzstan to launch a stablecoin and digital currency initiative, raising questions about exposure to sanctions evasion risks.

“These allegations raise grave concerns that poor illicit finance controls at Binance remain a significant threat to national security,” the senators wrote. They warned that weak safeguards at the world’s largest digital asset exchange could allow terrorist groups or sanctions evaders to access the global financial system.

A Binance spokesperson disputed the allegations, stating that the company detected and reported suspicious activity and that claims it retaliated against compliance staff are false. 

The company has said it remains committed to meeting its regulatory obligations under the 2023 agreements.

The senators requested a response from Bondi and Bessent by March 13.

This post Senate Democrats Press DOJ, Treasury to Probe Binance Over Trump Ties, Iran Sanctions Allegations first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Micah Zimmerman.

Bitcoin Magazine

Sora Ventures-Backed Bitplanet Reaches 300 Bitcoin, Ranks Among Asia’s Top 20 Corporate Holders

Bitplanet Inc. has accumulated 300 BTC through a structured purchase program, positioning the South Korea-listed company among the top 20 corporate Bitcoin holders in Asia.

The company, backed by Sora Ventures, began building its BTC treasury in the fourth quarter of 2025. Its most recent purchases were carried out in phases between Feb. 23 and Feb. 26 via Upbit, one of South Korea’s largest cryptocurrency exchanges. 

The BTC will be held with a professional custody provider, the company told Bitcoin Magazine.

Chief Executive Paul Lee said Bitplanet is focused on more than balance sheet exposure. “We are not simply accumulating Bitcoin,” Lee said in a statement. He added that the company plans to explore operational strategies that could contribute to revenue generation and cash flow over time, linking BTC treasury management with artificial intelligence computing initiatives.

Bitplanet said it views Asia as a key driver of the next phase of digital asset treasury adoption and aims to position itself as a transparent, institutional-grade corporate holder of Bitcoin. 

The company said it may expand its holdings further, subject to market conditions, regulatory developments, and financing availability.

Corporate bitcoin strain

The firm counts several digital asset treasury investors among its backers, including Simon Gerovich of Metaplanet, as well as AsiaStrategy, UTXO Management, KCGI, Kingsway Capital, and ParaFi Capital.

Metaplanet did post a net loss of 95 billion yen ($619 million) for fiscal 2025, driven by a 102.2 billion yen ($665.8 million) valuation decline on its bitcoin holdings. 

The disclosure marks the latest example of a corporate bitcoin buyer facing pressure as the cryptocurrency’s price slid from record highs in October.

The company closed the year with 35,102 BTC, valued at approximately $2.4 billion, making Metaplanet the fourth-largest public corporate BTC holder globally, behind Strategy.

Since it began accumulating BTC 21 months ago, Metaplanet has spent nearly $3.8 billion, averaging $107,000 per coin, according to data from two weeks ago.

Last quarter, when Sora Ventures unveiled its plans at Taipei Blockchain Week, the firm said it plans to purchase $1 billion in BTC within six months, backed by a $200 million initial commitment from regional partners. 

Today, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading near $65,000, drifting lower from mid‑week highs near $70,000 amid persistent selling pressure across crypto markets.

This post Sora Ventures-Backed Bitplanet Reaches 300 Bitcoin, Ranks Among Asia’s Top 20 Corporate Holders first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Micah Zimmerman.

Bitcoin Magazine

U.S. Government Seizes Over $580 Million in Crypto Linked to Southeast Asian Scams

U.S. Attorney Jeanine Ferris Pirro said federal authorities have frozen and seized more than $580 million in cryptocurrency tied to Southeast Asian scam networks, marking a major escalation in the government’s campaign against cross-border crypto fraud.

The funds were restrained through the Justice Department’s Scam Center Strike Force, a task force formed in November to target cryptocurrency investment and confidence schemes linked to Chinese transnational criminal organizations. 

Officials said the groups use social media platforms and text messaging to target U.S. victims and siphon billions of dollars each year. Recent estimates place annual losses to Americans near $10 billion.

“In only three months, we have made significant progress, freezing, seizing, and forfeiting cryptocurrency worth more than $578 million from these criminals,” Pirro said in a statement. She said her office will seek forfeiture through the courts and aims to return funds to victims.

Authorities describe the schemes as “pig butchering” operations, in which fraudsters build relationships with victims before steering them into fraudulent crypto investments. Victims are persuaded to purchase legitimate digital assets and then transfer them to counterfeit trading platforms controlled by the scam networks.

The operations often run out of secured compounds in parts of Southeast Asia, including Burma, Cambodia, and Laos. U.S. officials said some workers inside the compounds are trafficking victims who are forced to carry out scams under threat of violence. In certain areas, revenue generated from scam activity accounts for a large share of local economic output.

The Strike Force is focused on identifying senior figures within the criminal networks, including organizers and money launderers who move proceeds through blockchain transactions and shell accounts. Investigators are tracing funds across exchanges and wallets to disrupt cash-out points and freeze assets before they are dispersed.

The initiative brings together the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the District of Columbia and several Justice Department divisions, along with the Federal Bureau of Investigation, the U.S. Secret Service, and the Internal Revenue Service’s Criminal Investigation unit. U.S. Attorney’s Offices in Rhode Island and the Western District of Washington are also participating.

The Justice Department said the Strike Force will continue targeting infrastructure, financial channels, and leadership structures tied to the fraud networks.

Crypto crime hit $154 Billion last year

Data from Chainalysis shows illicit crypto addresses received at least $154 billion in 2025, a 162% year-over-year increase, with sanctioned entities driving much of the surge. Nation-states including Russia, Iran, and North Korea played an outsized role, leveraging blockchain infrastructure for sanctions evasion, money laundering, and large-scale thefts.

Stablecoins accounted for 84% of illicit transaction volume, the report said. 

The report also highlights the expansion of Chinese money laundering networks offering “laundering-as-a-service” and other full-stack illicit infrastructure. Although illicit activity still represents less than 1% of total crypto volume, the scale and geopolitical dimension of the activity pose rising risks for regulators, law enforcement, and national security.

This post U.S. Government Seizes Over $580 Million in Crypto Linked to Southeast Asian Scams first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Micah Zimmerman.

Bitcoin Magazine

MARA Holdings (MARA) Stock Jumps After $1.71B Loss as Firm Pivots to AI Data Centers

Shares of MARA Holdings climbed 13% in premarket trading Friday, even after the Bitcoin miner reported a $1.71 billion net loss for the fourth quarter, as investors focused on the company’s shift toward artificial intelligence and high-performance computing.

The company posted a net loss of $1.71 billion for Q4 2025, compared with net income of $528.3 million during the same period a year earlier. Revenue for the quarter fell 6% to $202.3 million, according to a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, as lower Bitcoin prices offset gains from higher network hash rate.

The largest driver of the quarterly loss was a $1.5 billion negative revaluation of digital assets following a decline in the price of Bitcoin. Under fair-value accounting rules, companies must adjust the carrying value of their digital asset holdings each quarter to reflect market prices, creating swings in reported earnings.

For the full year 2025, MARA reported a net loss of $1.31 billion, compared with net income of $541 million in 2024. Annual revenue rose to $907.1 million from $656.4 million the prior year, reflecting expanded operations and increased Bitcoin production earlier in the cycle.

During the fourth quarter, MARA mined 2,011 BTC, down 6% from the third quarter and below the 2,492 BTC mined in the year-ago period. Total production for 2025 reached 8,799 BTC, compared with 9,430 BTC in 2024.

As of Dec. 31, the company held 53,822 BTC, including 15,315 BTC pledged as collateral. Based on a quarterly price of $87,498 per coin, the value of its Bitcoin reserves stood near $4.7 billion at quarter’s end.

 Over the past six months, MARA shares have fallen roughly 45%, reflecting pressure across the mining sector tied to Bitcoin price volatility and post-halving economics.

MARA is moving to AI 

Alongside its earnings report, MARA outlined a strategic pivot aimed at transforming the firm from a pure-play Bitcoin miner into an energy and digital infrastructure company. 

The company announced a joint venture with Starwood Digital Ventures to develop AI-focused and high-performance computing data centers at select sites with access to low-cost power and grid capacity.

The first phase of the initiative targets more than one gigawatt of IT infrastructure, with potential expansion to 2.5 gigawatts.

Projects will be structured on a site-by-site basis, with MARA retaining stakes of up to 50% while continuing Bitcoin mining operations where economics support it.

Earlier this month, MARA acquired a 64% stake in Exaion, a firm that provides AI and high-performance computing solutions for corporate and government clients, signaling its intent to diversify beyond mining.

The strategy mirrors a broader industry shift as miners seek ways to make money due to tighter margins and fluctuating Bitcoin prices. Over the last couple of months, major Bitcoin mining firms like Cipher and Bitfarms have been aggressively repurposing their energy-heavy infrastructure into AI and high-performance computing data centers to diversify revenue as traditional mining margins shrink.

This post MARA Holdings (MARA) Stock Jumps After $1.71B Loss as Firm Pivots to AI Data Centers first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Micah Zimmerman.

Bitcoin defends $64K after U.S., Israel strikes on Iran as ETF flows return to center stage

Bitcoin traded through a weekend macro shock after U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran sparked regional retaliation.

The largest price swings occurred during low-liquidity hours, leaving spot BTC back near the mid-$64,000 area.

The move reinforced a pattern that has become more visible in the ETF era: Bitcoin can function as a 24/7 pressure valve for macro risk.

At the same time, the deepest marginal liquidity increasingly concentrates in weekday, regulated venues.

That structural split is showing up in participation.

Weekend activity has capitulated ever since spot Bitcoin ETFs joined the market in 2024. Last week showed a particularly large drop-off, even as weekday trading levels have surged since the start of February, especially on Coinbase.

The shift can widen weekend air pockets and increase the chance of sharp reversals when geopolitical headlines hit.

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Bitcoin flash crashes below $65,000 in delayed reaction to more Trump tariff hikes during low weekend liquidity

Bitcoin price stalls today because Trump just bypassed the Supreme Court with a 15% tariff spike.

Feb 22, 2026 · Liam 'Akiba' Wright

It also keeps focus on Monday’s “next open” variables, especially the spot ETF create-redeem channel and the persistence of any risk premium in rates, FX, and energy.

If Monday sees US traders flood into ETFs as they did last week, Bitcoin could continue its recovery, especially if today's ‘lower high' holds through the rest of the weekend. However, if Bitcoin starts the week within the $63,000-$61,000 price band, a jittery market open could pull it down even further.

The CME angle remains part of trader positioning as well, with attention on CME weekend gaps that form when futures are closed but spot continues trading.

The next read-through is less about the weekend candle and more about how U.S. markets reprice risk when spot bitcoin ETFs reopen.

Our recent market coverage has highlighted renewed inflows, with reported multi-day ETF inflows topping $1 billion over three sessions even as price action remained choppy.

At the same time, positioning has stayed uneven.

Year-to-date net outflows stood at about $2.6 billion by mid-February, emphasizing why rebounds can be sharp but are capped when liquidity thins and headline risk rises.

Macro context also matters because this was not a one-off geopolitical tape.

Earlier in the week, trade policy uncertainty hit risk sentiment after the Supreme Court constrained Trump’s tariff authority under emergency powers, forcing a pivot in strategy.

In the aftermath, the Section 122 path and the flat 15% tariff reintroduced uncertainty around the U.S. trade outlook.

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Bitcoin faces a $175B liquidity shock as tariff refunds move to trade court

The refund fight moves to trade court, but markets are already pricing a potential cash transfer that could reshape liquidity fast.

Feb 22, 2026 · Gino Matos

Cross-asset reactions around that sequence, including gold’s move amid tariff uncertainty and the dollar's softness tied to trade uncertainty, framed bitcoin as part of a broader policy-risk complex rather than a crypto-only story.

For the Iran channel, markets tend to focus on energy flows because oil is the clearest transmission line from geopolitics into inflation expectations, yields, and the dollar.

That mix can tighten financial conditions for risk assets.

Axios’s breakdown of the energy pathway highlighted the Strait of Hormuz as a chokepoint, carrying about 25% of global maritime oil trade and about 20% of LNG shipments.

Separate reporting also put attention on crude sensitivity and the OPEC+ reaction function, which will shape whether weekend stress fades into relief or hardens into a rates-driven risk-off.

Against that backdrop, we can map the rebound around a small set of levels that separate “contained escalation” from “energy shock” outcomes.

Based on the levels visible in the move, the immediate battleground sits around the mid-$64,000s, with support shelves below and a resistance band near prior highs.

A contained-escalation path keeps the focus on whether bitcoin holds roughly $64,700 into the U.S. reopen and then recaptures $65,400.

That would put the $69,000 to $70,000 area back in play if ETF flow data stays constructive.

A more adverse path is tied to energy.

If crude gaps higher and stays bid, the market’s first reaction often runs through higher inflation pricing, firmer yields, and a stronger dollar, a mix that can pressure bitcoin even if the initial selloff already occurred.

In that case, a move below about $63,800 would concentrate attention on $62,850.

Broader round-number support becomes the next reference point if those shelves fail.

The post Bitcoin recovers instantly after Iran war crashes price but one Monday number could flip the next move appeared first on CryptoSlate.

Bitcoin is turning into multi-generational wealth, and a large share of holders still run it with a single point of failure. One accident, illness, or a stretch of incapacity can be the difference between inheriting generational wealth and losing everything.

That's the inheritance crisis the market will have to face.

A recent report from the Gannett Trust framed 2026 as the moment early adopters start “buttoning up” succession. The stakes have grown significantly, but families often have zero interest in learning private key operations, and too many people have watched real losses happen when the only person who understood the setup disappeared.

Bitcoin is permissionless money, until someone you love needs permission.

Bitcoin ownership is enforced by keys and authorization. Legal authority, good intentions, and perfectly drafted documents can't move coins. That makes inheritance in crypto harsher than inheritance in any other financial asset, and it creates a new kind of failure mode that doesn't exist in the same way anywhere else. Assets can stay visible on-chain forever, while the access is gone forever.

Millions of BTC are estimated to be permanently lost already, and inheritance is one of the many ways it happens.

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Jul 8, 2024 · Mike Dalton

Why is this a problem now?

For years, Bitcoin culture treated estate planning as something other people did, the kind of paperwork associated with banks, advisors, and surrendering control.

That assumption is fading as Bitcoin matures into a balance sheet asset and a family asset, and as holders run into normal life events that have nothing to do with markets.

The timing matters because the earliest cohorts of adopters are aging into the years when accidents, illness, cognitive decline, and caregiving responsibilities become real, while the underlying asset has also grown large enough to change a family’s financial future.

Mainstream guidance has converged on the same core point. If heirs don't have clear access instructions, crypto can become permanently inaccessible. Estate documents can establish intent and authority, and the asset still needs access credentials to move.

Bitcoin’s “be your own bank” model works brilliantly for individual control. But inheritance is group coordination under stress, and families rarely coordinate well under stress.

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Oct 16, 2019 · Priyeshu Garg

The biggest misconception

The biggest misconception people have is that planning equals giving up sovereignty.

Gannett's report argues the opposite. Planning can preserve control by making authority clear during incapacity, tightening the transfer path at death, and keeping the owner’s preferred custody model intact, including cases where the trust maker retains control of keys.

Estate planning comes with two risks that people usually blend together.

Custody risk is about who holds keys day to day, and what happens if that party abuses access, loses it, or gets compromised.

Continuity risk is about what happens when the key holder cannot act.

Many Bitcoiners try to eliminate custody risk by keeping everything in their own head and hands. That expands the continuity risk, because a family inherits confusion rather than a system. A plan that preserves sovereignty focuses on continuity without changing who controls the asset during life. It gives heirs a path that works in the real world, with clear authority, clear instructions, and a setup that anticipates human limits.

If your plan requires perfect memory, then it's not really a plan.

Lost Bitcoin keeps getting lost this way

People argue over how much Bitcoin is lost because lost is hard to prove. Dormant coins can look like patient holders, and coins locked behind missing keys look the same on-chain. There's no way to label death on the blockchain.

Even with that uncertainty, credible estimates place permanently lost Bitcoin in the millions. Ledger cites analysts, including Chainalysis, estimating roughly 2.3 million to 3.7 million BTC permanently lost as of 2025, with other estimates ranging even higher.

Inheritance isn't the only driver of lost supply, but it fits the same mechanism. Keys exist somewhere, the person who understood them disappears, and the asset becomes an unspendable monument.

Every year, Bitcoin becomes more valuable as a household asset; this failure mode becomes more expensive, and the number of families who discover the problem only after a crisis keeps growing.

On-chain visibility can outlive off-chain access.

A cautionary tale

QuadrigaCX remains the most widely understood illustration of key person dependency. In 2019, customers were locked out of a large pool of funds after the exchange's CEO, Gerry Cotten, died, with reporting describing a situation where he was the only person with the keys needed to access cold storage. Following his death, auditors found the cold wallets were empty for months before his death, adding a fraud layer to the story.

You don't need a full scandal like this to implement the lesson on inheritance planning. Whether it was incompetence or fraud, the operational failure mode was the same: one human, one set of keys, and a total lockout. A system built around one person’s private keys breaks when that person cannot act.

Legal paperwork can never recreate a missing key.

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Mar 1, 2019 · Mitchell Moos

The family Bitcoin playbook needs four answers

Inheritance planning in Bitcoin requires more than one document. It requires an operating system that answers four questions in a way a stressed family can execute, with enough structure to prevent chaos and enough restraint to avoid spraying sensitive information across too many hands.

1) Who has authority when I cannot act?
In traditional terms, this is incapacity planning. In crypto terms, it determines who gets to make decisions during a hospitalization, a cognitive decline, or a long recovery. A trust structure is a way to establish clear authority in incapacity and to coordinate transfers at death, so that the family is not improvising governance in the middle of a medical crisis.

2) Where is access information stored, and how is it retrieved safely?
This is the practical heart of the matter. Seeds, passphrases, PINs, device access, multisig policy, and any second factor constraints need an intentional storage plan that balances security with retrievability. It's important to document access information securely, in a way that the recovery process is understood and tested, because unreadable instructions are functionally the same as no instructions.

A secret that dies with you was never a system.

3) What constraints govern action?
A family needs guardrails, not just access. Who can move funds, when, for what purpose, and with whose consent? Trust language exists for exactly this reason. It turns vague intent into defined permissions, and it creates a decision framework that can hold up when emotions are high and incentives are messy.

4) How does the system survive turnover?
Executors and trustees change, families move, relationships break, and the person you trust today may not be the person your heirs trust in ten years. A durable design assumes replacement and makes replacement possible without exposing keys to unnecessary hands, while still preserving a clear chain of responsibility.

These questions sound procedural because they are procedural. Bitcoin turns inheritance into procedure, and procedure is what survives disruption.

Structure without surrender

Gannett’s practical bridge is the revocable living trust.

The report treats it as a tool that can improve continuity outcomes while preserving control, including private administration through probate avoidance and clearer authority in incapacity, while still allowing the owner to keep control of keys depending on how the structure is implemented.

That matters because many holders get stuck in a false choice: pure self-custody with no continuity plan, or full delegation to a custodian that holds the keys. The trust framing points to a third category, legal structure plus technical design that preserves the owner’s custody preferences while creating an executable path for heirs.

The technical design choices still matter, and practical approaches fall into two categories:
Single key custody with professionalized documentation keeps things simple. The plan lives or dies on how well access and authority are organized, whether instructions are legible, and whether someone can actually follow them in the real world without turning the home office into a forensic recovery lab.

Multisig with role separation adds complexity and also adds resilience, because one missing party no longer equals total failure. It can map more cleanly to family reality, where authority and responsibility get shared, and where a trusted professional can be part of a process without being the sole gatekeeper of funds.

Gannett also discusses collaborative custody models that aim to reduce loss risk while keeping control distributed, referencing approaches pioneered by Unchained.

You don't have to choose any of these vendors to understand the principle: separate roles, distribute keys, and require coordination, so that no single moment of chaos turns into permanent loss.

The human factor: heirs don't want to become security engineers

The most honest part of this story is that most families don't want the job of dealing with Bitcoin. They want clarity, permission, and a process that works without turning them into cryptographers.

That is why trusts and fiduciary structures are a good way to create continuity, not just transfer Bitcoin from one wallet to another. It's also why mainstream explainers keep urging people to name knowledgeable fiduciaries and to create secure, understandable instructions that can be executed later.

Quick test: if you were hit by a bus today, would your family know who is allowed to act, and where the actionable access path lives?

If the answer is that they would figure it out, that's not a plan, but a bet.

A plan that looks elegant on a whiteboard can still fail in practice if it relies on perfect memory, perfect secrecy, and perfect family coordination. Inheritance happens during disruption. The design has to survive disruption, and it has to survive the fact that most people are not trying to become security engineers in the middle of a crisis.

What a good inheritance plan looks like in 2026

The inheritance crisis doesn't need mass panic to be real. It shows up quickly but quietly, one household at a time, with coins that remain on chain and access that disappears off chain.

Gannett’s core claim is that 2026 becomes a turning point. Early Bitcoiners have started adopting tools for this and shedding the assumption that planning requires surrender. Inheritance planning is now becoming a part of holding Bitcoin at size, the same way secure custody became part of holding Bitcoin at size.

The readiness test isn't the size of your stack, but whether your system still works when you do not.

If the answer lives in one person’s memory, the system has a single point of failure. If the answer lives in a clear authority structure plus a recoverable access plan, sovereignty survives the owner, and Bitcoin finally becomes the multi-generational asset people claim it is.

The post Bitcoin’s self custody culture created an inheritance time bomb, and 2026 may be when it starts detonating appeared first on CryptoSlate.

President Donald Trump has pulled the United States into military action against Iran, and the first consequence for crypto markets was another wave of selling rather than a rush into Bitcoin as a haven.

According to CryptoSlate’s data, BTC price dumped around 7%, erasing some of its weeklong gains to trade as low as $63,000 before recovering slightly.

This price action negates the popular argument that geopolitical turmoil should automatically favor Bitcoin because it exists outside the traditional financial system.

In practice, the flagship crypto usually trades first as a volatile risk asset during a macro shock, especially when investors are already cautious, leverage is elevated, or portfolio managers are trying to raise cash quickly.

That is why a US-Iran conflict would matter to crypto investors less as a story about ideology and more as a story about oil, inflation expectations, interest rates, and global liquidity.

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Sep 17, 2025 · Oluwapelumi Adejumo

This is because Bitcoin’s first move would probably not be driven by its long-term narrative as “digital gold.” Instead, it would be driven by how war changes the broader macro environment.

If Washington and Tehran were to enter direct conflict, the most immediate market response would likely be a classic risk-off move. Equities would probably come under pressure, gold could attract haven demand, and Bitcoin would remain exposed to the same de-risking that tends to hit other volatile assets during episodes of geopolitical stress.

The more important question would come after that initial reaction. If war were to send energy prices high enough to change inflation expectations and alter how investors think about monetary policy, then Bitcoin’s second move could look very different from the first.

Oil is the key transmission channel

The clearest way to understand how a US-Iran conflict could affect Bitcoin is to begin with the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important energy chokepoints.

The Strait sits at the center of the global oil and gas trade, and any disruption there has consequences far beyond the Middle East.

A conflict between the United States and Iran becomes a Bitcoin story only if it first becomes an oil story. That is the main transmission mechanism through which military escalation in the Gulf would affect global markets.

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Oil markets tense amid U.S. airstrikes on Iran, while Bitcoin price holds steady

Global oil markets are jittery after U.S. airstrikes on Iran threaten the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, while Bitcoin price remains steady.

Jun 22, 2025 · Christina Comben

The risk would not depend only on a full closure of the waterway. Markets can react sharply to partial disruption, intermittent attacks, shipping delays, or even the fear that flows could be interrupted.

This is because oil prices usually begin incorporating a geopolitical premium well before actual supply losses are fully realized.

Notably, the exposure to this Strait is global. Asian economies are especially vulnerable because a large share of the crude oil, condensate, and liquefied natural gas that moves through Hormuz is shipped to countries such as China, India, Japan, and South Korea.

While some producers in the region have limited alternative export routes that can bypass the strait, those alternatives are not large enough to eliminate the threat quickly.

In practical terms, markets cannot simply reroute their way out of a serious geopolitical shock in the Gulf.

That is why a US-Iran war could affect Bitcoin without any direct connection to crypto itself. If oil spikes, inflation expectations could rise, growth expectations could weaken, and investors would have to reassess the outlook for rates and liquidity.

As a result, Bitcoin would be pulled into a broader repricing of macro assets.

A higher oil price could hurt Bitcoin before changing the outlook

The most severe oil scenarios are large enough to matter far beyond the energy market.

Last year, analysts modeled outcomes in which Brent crude could move sharply higher if Hormuz were blocked or materially disrupted.

In such scenarios, the immediate impact on Bitcoin would depend less on the headline level of oil prices than on the macro regime that higher energy costs create.

If the result is a stagflationary environment, in which inflation expectations rise even as growth slows, Bitcoin could struggle alongside equities and other speculative assets.

That backdrop tends to keep real yields high and financial conditions tight, which usually creates a hostile setting for high-volatility markets.

If the oil shock eventually turns recessionary, however, the script can change.

A sharp rise in energy costs can damage growth so badly that markets begin to price in rate cuts, liquidity support, or some other form of policy easing.

In that kind of setting, Bitcoin could sell off hard at first and then rebound once investors begin to anticipate easier monetary conditions.

That is why war would not produce a single, straight-line outcome for Bitcoin. It would more likely produce a sequence.

The first phase would probably be mechanical and defensive. Oil rises, risk appetite falls, traders reduce exposure, and Bitcoin weakens with other risk assets.

The second phase would depend on whether the dominant outcome is persistent inflation, a broader slowdown in growth, or an eventual turn toward easier money.

That distinction matters because Bitcoin has often responded less to the geopolitical event itself than to how it reshapes expectations for rates, real yields, and liquidity.

The military conflict would start in the Gulf, but Bitcoin’s pricing would still be filtered through the same macro variables that drive broader investor behavior.

Bitcoin’s market structure already points to vulnerability

That sequencing is especially important because Bitcoin’s own market structure already appears fragile enough to amplify a geopolitical shock.

Recent trading conditions have suggested that, while volatility has eased from earlier extremes, market conviction remains weak.

CryptoSlate previously reported that BTC's Implied volatility is around 50%, indicating a market capable of large, abrupt price swings.

At the same time, derivatives positioning had shown a pronounced preference for downside protection, with traders paying up for puts and short-dated futures slipping into a discount to spot prices.

That combination matters because war headlines would not arrive in a calm, confident market. They would hit a market that is already defensive and already willing to pay for protection against downside risk.

In those conditions, the near-term danger for Bitcoin would be a liquidation-driven drop. Traders could cut leverage, unwind positions, rotate into cash, or increase hedges all at once.

That kind of move tends to reinforce itself, particularly in crypto, where leverage can magnify selling pressure and thin liquidity can produce outsized gaps.

Essentially, this is one of the strongest arguments against the idea that a US-Iran war would immediately benefit Bitcoin.

The store-of-value narrative may remain attractive over the long run, but the first trading response during a sudden geopolitical escalation would more likely be shaped by positioning and risk management than by ideology.

Put simply, Bitcoin’s structure argues for weakness first.

ETF flows could worsen the selloff or help stabilize it

The next market variable that would determine Bitcoin's price performance in this period would be its exchange-traded funds (ETF) flows.

The US-listed investment vehicles have shown that fresh demand can return quickly when sentiment improves. But the recent picture has also shown that conviction remains unstable, with inflows on some trading days offset by outflows over a broader weekly period.

That matters because, in a war shock, ETFs could serve either as a stabilizing force or as an additional source of pressure.

If investors treat a selloff as a buying opportunity, ETF inflows could help absorb some of the downside and restore confidence.

But if advisers, institutions, and wealth managers respond to broader risk aversion by reducing crypto exposure, the ETF wrapper could amplify the move lower.

In that case, selling that begins in the derivatives market could be reinforced by cash-market outflows during US trading hours.

This is why the standard claim that geopolitical stress should help Bitcoin because it operates outside banks and sovereign currencies often fails in real trading conditions.

When the shock is sudden and large, investors frequently treat Bitcoin as something to sell first and reevaluate later.

The existence of ETF access does not eliminate that risk. It may, in fact, accelerate the speed at which capital moves out if broader portfolio de-risking takes hold.

Sanctions pressure may lift crypto activity without helping Bitcoin

Meanwhile, a US-Iran conflict would not be fought only through missiles and shipping lanes. It would almost certainly bring a tougher sanctions environment, and crypto would sit much closer to that pressure than before.

Recent enforcement actions have already signaled that US authorities are paying closer attention to digital asset platforms connected to Iranian networks.

In a wartime setting, that scrutiny would likely intensify across exchanges, intermediaries, and payment rails suspected of facilitating sanctioned transactions.

At the same time, conflict could increase the practical use of crypto-based payment systems in sanctioned or restricted environments.

However, the evidence has tended to point more strongly to stablecoins than to Bitcoin as the asset most likely to be used for transactional purposes under sanctions pressure.

That creates an ambiguous outcome for the broader crypto market. On one hand, conflict and sanctions could increase reliance on digital rails for cross-border value transfer.

On the other hand, those same developments would likely raise compliance risk, enforcement pressure and regulatory scrutiny across the sector.

Those two trends do not automatically translate into a higher Bitcoin price. In fact, they may do the opposite, especially if exchanges and institutional platforms respond by becoming more conservative.

Bitcoin’s verdict would come in two stages

Taken together, a US-Iran war would probably create a two-stage market for Bitcoin.

The first stage is the easier one to understand. Oil rises, investors de-risk, downside hedging intensifies, and Bitcoin trades like a high-beta macro asset. That likely means lower prices at the start.

The second stage is more complicated and more important. If the conflict produces only a temporary energy shock, Bitcoin could stabilize once investors regain confidence and flows return.

If the disruption is prolonged and inflation remains sticky, Bitcoin could stay under pressure alongside equities and other volatile assets.

However, if the oil shock proves severe enough to tip the macro outlook toward recession and policy easing, Bitcoin could eventually recover sharply after the initial selloff.

So the real answer is not that war would be good for Bitcoin or bad for Bitcoin in any simple sense. It is that war would probably hurt first, then force the market to decide what matters more: inflation, recession, or easier money.

The post Bitcoin just dumped 7% after Trump hit Iran, and the real reason has nothing to do with crypto appeared first on CryptoSlate.

The US Supreme Court struck down President Donald Trump’s emergency tariffs under IEEPA on Feb. 20, and markets immediately inherited a large cash flow question. The amount at stake was more than $175 billion in tariff collections that could be subject to refunds, with the Court offering no step-by-step plan for how refunds should be processed.

The first clean market tell came from an asset that seems to exist far away from trade law. Bitcoin slid almost 5% and dipped to $64,000 as broader risk appetite cooled.

The move matters because it fits a pattern that keeps repeating in 2026. When macro policy turns unstable, Bitcoin stops trading like a long-term hedge and starts trading like a balance-sheet tool, something that can be sold quickly to raise dollars or cut exposure while other markets catch up.

A simple way to understand the sequence is: the Court tightened the legal boundary, the refund timeline became uncertain at scale, Customs mechanics shifted, and risk desks reached for liquidity fast. Bitcoin tends to end up near the top of the list because it can be sold both instantly and globally.

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Supreme Court ruling, refunds, and Customs mechanics

The Court ruled that IEEPA doesn't authorize a president to impose tariffs, invalidating the core set of Trump’s broad emergency tariffs.

That court decision, however, provided no practical solution as to how the refunds should work.
Then the operating system started adjusting.

Reporting on Customs messaging said US Customs and Border Protection would stop collecting the IEEPA tariffs and deactivate the related tariff codes effective 12:01 a.m. Eastern on Tuesday.

So the market got the same three inputs in quick succession: a Supreme Court constraint on tariff authority, a $175 billion-scale refund question, and a sudden shift in border-collection mechanics.

Why Bitcoin sells on policy shocks that touch cash flows

Policy shocks create a specific kind of uncertainty about how cash and collateral will move while the rule is in flux. That matters because modern portfolios and trading desks manage risk with exposure limits, margin, and volatility targets. When uncertainty jumps, they have to tighten quickly.

In that first phase, traders often sell what can be sold immediately, with minimal friction, and Bitcoin fits that job description. It trades 24/7, it has deep global liquidity, and its derivatives market lets big players reduce exposure fast. On a Sunday night or in a thin liquidity window, Bitcoin can become an efficient place to raise dollars or shrink risk before cash equity markets fully reopen.

That’s the mechanical reason Bitcoin reacts to court rulings, tariffs, CPI prints, and rate shocks. It sits inside portfolios that treat it as a liquid risk asset, and it can be turned into cash with fewer operational constraints than many other positions.

The tariff ruling also carried the kind of second-order uncertainty that makes desks more conservative. Reuters described a refund fight that could run through the Court of International Trade and years of litigation, with companies already preparing claims and, in some cases, selling rights to potential refunds to investors.

That sort of uncertainty spills into corporate planning, working capital, and the broad risk mood. In that environment, the market tends to prefer cash and short duration, and it trims positions that are easy to trim.

The $175 billion figure is a market input

The number is large enough to matter for how investors model cash flows and timing risk.

The hardest part is the path. The Supreme Court decision removed the legal basis for the tariffs, and that pushed the refund question into a messy space: who gets paid, when they get paid, and what happens in the meantime.

The Court didn't lay out a refund mechanism, and prolonged court battles could be the likely route.

Markets price that kind of uncertainty as volatility. Volatility pushes funds and desks into the same defensive playbook. Liquidity becomes a priority, and assets that are liquid get used as funding sources.

What this says about Bitcoin’s role in 2026

The useful comparison is between narratives and behavior during stress. A hedge asset tends to gain when policy uncertainty rises, but a funding asset tends to fall because it gets sold to cover risk elsewhere.

In this case, Bitcoin dropped to tariff uncertainty and broader risk-off positioning, with the price sliding to the mid-$64,000s before stabilizing.

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Feb 23, 2026 · Oluwapelumi Adejumo

That pattern fits the view that BTC acts as a sort of liquidity valve for the broader market. In moments where markets want dollars and lower exposure, Bitcoin is at the top of the sell list because it can be sold instantly, globally, at any hour.

The Supreme Court ruling created a fresh zone of policy whiplash. The legal boundary tightened around emergency tariff authority, Customs collection practices shifted, and a $175 billion refund question moved from abstract to immediate.

Bitcoin’s move is a market-structure story. When macro uncertainty spikes, Bitcoin often acts like an asset that the system can sell quickly to raise liquidity.

The post Why Bitcoin traders have to price tariffs like surprise rate hikes while waiting on social media posts for the next $175B trigger appeared first on CryptoSlate.

Since it's pretty clear we've now seen this cycle's bull market high, I've created an updated halving-cycle model built on four Bitcoin cycles.

The model projects a cycle low near $35,000 in December 2026 after a 72.5% drawdown from a $126,219 cycle high.

Inside the halving-cycle framework

My last model correctly marked both the 2021 and 2025 top timeframes. The new framework, “Akiba Cycle Model v2,” combines a 50,000-run Monte Carlo simulation with walk-forward validation and leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV).

It breaks the cycle into three linked components: drawdown from a bull-market high to the subsequent cycle low, the number of days from a halving to that low, and the recovery multiple from the low into the next halving.

The drawdown and timing components produced smaller historical errors than the recovery leg. That recovery leg drove the largest miss in its out-of-sample test.

The model starts from an empirical pattern in prior cycles in which peak-to-trough drawdowns have eased each era while still remaining deep.

Historical drawdowns from the bull high to the cycle low were 94.1% in the first cycle, 88.2% in the second, 83.7% in the third, and 77.6% in the fourth, based on the cycle taxonomy used in the accompanying chart.

The fitted projection for the fifth cycle centers on a 72.5% drawdown, with a simulated band from 71.9–73.1%.

That drawdown distribution is tight because the monotone decay holds across all four observations. Its LOOCV root-mean-square error is 0.63 percentage points.

Using the bull-market high of $126,219, the implied cycle-low price distribution clusters around the mid-$30,000s.

The median simulated low is about $34,700, with a $33,900–$35,500 P10–P90 range.

Timing points to late 2026

I also mapped how long it takes the market to reach the cycle low after a halving.

The days from halving to cycle low stepped from 778 days in cycle 1 to 784 days in cycle 2, then to 890 days in cycle 3 and 923 days in cycle 4.

The fifth-cycle estimate centers on 980 days after the April 2024 halving, which maps to December 2026. The P10–P90 window spans November 2026 through January 2027.

The LOOCV timing error is wider than drawdown, at 37 days. That reflects variance in the lengthening pattern, including the six-day increment between the first two cycles.

A condensed view of the cycle history used in the model is below.

Recovery multiple drives the widest uncertainty

The recovery leg is the portion that the model treats as least stable. It estimates the multiple from a cycle low to the next halving price, a pathway that has compressed over time in the historical series.

The low-to-next-halving multiples were 347.8x into H2, 67.2x into H3, and 20.8x into H4, with a central estimate near 5.0x into H5.

Because that component has only three historical observations and failed its walk-forward test, the simulation uses a wide uncertainty band for the H5 halving price.

Its P10–P90 range runs from $60,000 to $489,000, with a median of $172,000.

I built and ran the backtest myself to pressure-test the model across prior cycles, making clear where its assumptions tracked reality, and where they began to break down. The backtest is explicit about where the approach held up.

Training on cycles 1 through 3 and predicting cycle 4, the model produced a 78.2% drawdown estimate, compared with an observed 77.6%, a 0.7 percentage-point gap.

It also projected 929 days to the cycle low versus an observed 923 days, a six-day gap.

In price terms, it projected a cycle low of $15,012 versus an observed $15,474, a 3% miss.

The same exercise underpredicted the recovery multiple by 38% (13.0x predicted versus 20.8x observed). That miss then propagated into a larger error on the implied halving price.

Those diagnostics shape how the outputs are presented.

The model treats the cycle-low estimate as the primary forecastable variable and frames the next-halving price as scenario space.

The Monte Carlo engine samples from an ensemble of simple functional forms (linear fits, exponential decay, and average-decrement variants), injects noise calibrated to LOOCV residuals, and uses jackknife resampling of the four-cycle dataset to stress sensitivity to any one era.

It also clamps outputs to bounds defined in the notes. It then chains the drawdown, timing, and recovery draws to produce a joint distribution.

A snapshot of the fifth-cycle distribution outputs is below.

The notes also include two probability statements derived from the simulated distribution set: a 64.4% chance that the H5 halving price exceeds $126,219, and a 100% chance that the cycle low stays above $20,000 under the model’s structural floor assumptions.

Both claims are conditional on the model design, including its small-sample calibration and its independence assumption. That assumption treats drawdown, timing, and recovery as separable random draws even though they can co-move.

The observations underpinning the cycle taxonomy help explain why the model focuses on drawdowns and elapsed time rather than peak returns.

Peak gains relative to the prior halving price have compressed each era, moving from 10,375% in cycle 2 to about 2,900% in cycle 3 and 632% in cycle 4.

In the notes, the current cycle’s bull high is set at 103% over the prior halving price.

At the same time, the halving-to-high interval lengthened from 363 days after the first halving to 522 days after the second and 555 days after the third.

Under the chosen data points, the model places the fifth-cycle bull-market high at 537 days after the April 2024 halving.

The model documentation lists several limitations that can change how these distributions should be read.

It uses four cycles in total, so its tails can understate outcomes outside the historical range.

It also does not account for regime variables such as ETF flow patterns, custody structure, or macro correlation inputs like rates and liquidity.

The recovery module is flagged as the main source of uncertainty, since the walk-forward test showed that cycle-shape extrapolation did not capture the cycle 4 recovery multiple.

For market participants who treat halving-era behavior as a repeatable template, the v2 framework formalizes two prior-cycle regularities: a drifting drawdown rate and a lengthening path to the cycle low.

It leaves the next-halving price as a wide distribution rather than a point call.

The model’s median path places the next cycle low in the mid-$30,000s around December 2026. It leaves the halving-5 price as an outcome band anchored at $172,000 in the middle of a $60,000 to $489,000 range, with the caveat in the notes that it is not financial advice.

The post Bitcoin price projected to bottom at $35,000 in December by model that timed the last two market tops appeared first on CryptoSlate.

Investors seeking immediate clarity on the price action saw Bitcoin ($BTC) tumble from the $65,000 level to a local low of $63,038 within an hour of the first confirmed strikes. However, as unconfirmed reports surfaced suggesting that Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was eliminated in the strikes, the market sentiment shifted from fear of escalation to a speculative "regime change" rally, pushing BTC back toward the $67,000 mark.

From $63k to $67k: The Anatomy of a Geopolitical Dip

The initial reaction to the strikes, codenamed "Operation Roaring Lion," was a classic "risk-off" move. As explosions were reported near Tehran, traders liquidated leveraged positions, leading to over $128 billion being wiped from the total crypto market cap.

• The Dip: Bitcoin dropped 3.8% to hit $63,038.
• The Catalyst: Confirmed airstrikes on Iranian nuclear and military infrastructure.
• The Recovery: Prices surged past $65,000 and reached $67,000 as rumors of Khamenei's death gained traction on social media and certain Israeli news outlets like Channel 12.

While the Iranian government has officially denied these reports, claiming the Supreme Leader is in a "secure location," the market has historically reacted positively to the potential removal of geopolitical bottlenecks.

Why Bitcoin Price Reacts to Middle East Instability

In the current 2026 economic landscape, Bitcoin has often behaved more like a "high-beta" tech asset rather than "digital gold." Geopolitical shocks typically trigger an immediate liquidity drain in crypto as investors flee to traditional havens like physical gold, which recently hit an all-time high of $5,595.

However, the speed of the BTC recovery suggests that crypto remains the primary tool for "weekend hedging." Since traditional stock markets are closed, the 24/7 nature of the crypto market makes it the first responder to global breaking news.

Bitcoin Price Analysis: Resistance and Support

Despite the recovery to $67,000, Bitcoin remains in a broader correction phase from its 2025 peak of $126,000.

The current "short squeeze" risk remains high. If the news of the Iranian leadership's status is officially confirmed, analysts anticipate a potential run toward the $70,000 zone. Conversely, if Iran launches a "crushing response" as promised by state media, a retest of the $60,000 support is likely.

Turbulent geopolitical events are rattling financial markets — and the crypto sector is no exception. On February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched coordinated military strikes against Iran, a significant escalation in long-standing Middle East tensions that has wide-reaching implications for global markets. Major airlines have halted flights over the region as conflict intensifies, and world leaders urge diplomacy to prevent broader war.

This surge in geopolitical risk has led to risk-off sentiment across many assets, including cryptocurrencies. Investors are shifting toward safe-haven assets like gold and the U.S. dollar, prompting sell-offs in riskier digital assets.

Why Are Cryptos Falling?

The markets are reacting to a sudden escalation in conflict after the U.S. and Israel conducted military strikes inside Iran. This has:

1. Increased global geopolitical risk, a key driver of asset price swings.
2. Triggered flight to safety, dampening demand for risk assets like crypto.
3. Upended investor confidence across equities, commodities, and digital assets.

With airlines cancelling flights and political alliances issuing global statements, uncertainty remains high. Economic instability often leads traders to move capital into safer instruments, which can put downward pressure on cryptos, especially altcoins.

Below are the top five cryptocurrencies that have fallen the most in the past 24 hours — likely influenced by these macro concerns:

Top 5 Cryptos by Biggest 24-Hour Losses

1. Stable (STABLE)

• Price: $0.03085
• 24h Change: -14.71%
• Market Cap: $543M

Despite a relatively strong position, STABLE saw the most significant drop, suggesting broader market flight from even stablecoin-linked assets.

2. Decred (DCR)

• Price: $29.78
• 24h Change: -14.10%
• Market Cap: $515M

Decred’s large decline underscores traders pulling back from mid-cap cryptos during heightened uncertainty.

3. KuCoin Token (KCS)

• Price: $7.55
• 24h Change: -10.13%
• Market Cap: $998M

Even exchange-linked assets like KCS saw notable losses, indicating broad risk aversion.

4. Arbitrum (ARB)

• Price: $0.09386
• 24h Change: -8.35%
• Market Cap: $557M

Layer-2 tokens tied to DeFi activity and sentiment tend to be more volatile — and ARB’s drop reflects downturns in both sectors.

5. Aptos (APT)

• Price: $0.8915
• 24h Change: -7.11%
• Market Cap: $695M

Still in the top 5 losers, Aptos likely felt pressure from the overall market pullback.

Crypto Future Outlook

While crypto markets are known for volatility, major global events like military conflicts can sharply amplify risk aversion:

➡️ Short term: Expect continued volatility and potential further downside if conflict escalates.
➡️ Long term: If tensions cool and diplomacy regains traction, risk assets including crypto could recover.

Markets often reflect not just fundamentals, but sentiment, and right now sentiment is skewed toward caution.

The possibility of an XRP crash to $1 is no longer a distant bearish theory but a looming technical reality. As geopolitical instability drives investors toward traditional safe havens like gold and US Treasuries, altcoins are being offloaded at an accelerated rate. If the current psychological support levels fail to hold against the backdrop of a regional war, a revisit to the $1.00 mark is the primary target for the short-to-medium term.

The GCC Connection: Why This War Hits Crypto Hard

The current conflict has moved beyond isolated border skirmishes. Iran’s retaliation has reportedly impacted sectors within the GCC, a region that has become a global hub for crypto liquidity and high-net-worth investment firms.

Impact on Institutional Liquidity

Many "whales" and venture capital firms operating out of Dubai and Abu Dhabi are facing unprecedented operational uncertainty. When regional stability is threatened, the immediate reaction is a flight to liquidity. This shift leads to:

• Aggressive Sell-offs: Large-scale exits from high-beta assets like XRP to cover margins or move to cash.
• Reduced Market Depth: Liquidity providers may widen spreads or pull back entirely, leading to higher volatility.
• Network Infrastructure Concerns: Potential disruptions to banking rails in the Middle East that utilize the XRP Ledger for cross-border settlements.

XRP Price Analysis: The Descent Toward $1

Based on the below technical chart, XRP has broken below its primary ascending support line. The price is currently struggling to maintain its footing as sell volume spikes.

Key Technical Levels to Watch

"Risk-Off" vs. "Safe Haven"

In financial markets, a "Risk-Off" environment occurs when investors avoid assets with high volatility due to macroeconomic or geopolitical uncertainty. Despite the narrative of some tokens acting as "Digital Gold," recent price action confirms that XRP and most altcoins still trade as high-risk assets. They are typically the first to be sold during a war-induced panic, while Safe Havens like Gold or the USD see inflows.

The broader market is already feeling the pinch. Bitcoin has faced significant downward pressure as news of U.S. involvement in regional strikes hit the wires. Historically, when BTC drops, altcoins experience magnified losses. For XRP, which was already facing technical exhaustion, the war serves as the fundamental "black swan" event that could force a test of the $1.00 support level.

The global financial landscape was rocked early Saturday, February 28, 2026, as news broke of a coordinated military operation by the United States and Israel against targets in Iran. As traditional markets remain closed for the weekend, the cryptocurrency market—trading 24/7—bore the full brunt of the initial "risk-off" sentiment.

The Bitcoin price witnessed a sharp descent, dragging the broader altcoin market into a deep red zone.

Sudden Market Liquidation

Shortly after U.S. President Donald Trump confirmed that the U.S. military had begun "major combat operations" in Iran, the total crypto market cap shed approximately $128 billion in value. Investors seeking safety fled from volatile assets, leading to over $515 million in liquidations within a 24-hour window, according to data from CoinGlass.

Why Is Crypto Crashing? The Impact of Conflict

The primary driver behind the current crypto crash is the sudden escalation of geopolitical instability in the Middle East. Historically, Bitcoin has been debated as "digital gold" or a safe-haven asset. However, recent price action suggests that in the face of immediate military conflict, it behaves more like a high-risk growth stock.

• Risk Aversion: Investors are moving capital into cash or anticipating the reopening of gold markets.
• Energy Concerns: With Iran being a major oil producer, fears of a surge in energy prices have spiked, which typically correlates with a bearish outlook for risk assets.
• Forced Liquidations: Massive long positions were wiped out as Bitcoin dipped below key support levels, creating a "waterfall" effect in pricing.

BTC and ETH Price Performance

Bitcoin ($BTC) fell as much as 6%, dropping to a local low around $63,038. This move wiped out the gains seen earlier in the week when the asset was flirting with the $70,000 mark.

Ethereum ($ETH) followed suit, dropping 4.5% to trade near $1,835. Other major tokens like Solana (SOL) and XRP also saw significant losses as the market entered a state of "Extreme Fear." For real-time updates on how these assets are performing, you can monitor the latest crypto news.

What Happens Next?

The market is currently waiting for Iran's "crushing response," which state media has already signaled. If the conflict widens to involve neighboring countries or disrupts the Strait of Hormuz, analysts suggest Bitcoin could test the $60,000 support level. Major authority outlets are currently monitoring the military developments which will continue to dictate the crypto market's direction over the next 48 hours.

The cryptocurrency market is currently witnessing a significant shift in momentum. After a period of heightened volatility, the Bitcoin price has retreated to the $65,000 level, marking a crucial cooling-off period for the world's largest digital asset. This move comes as traders digest recent macro data and institutional shifts, leading to what analysts describe as a "textbook consolidation."

Is the Bitcoin Price Still Bullish?

Yes, the broader structure remains intact, but the short-term outlook has shifted to neutral-bearish. While the drop to $65,000 has sparked concern among retail investors, technical indicators suggest this is a necessary "healthy correction" to shake out over-leveraged positions before any potential move toward previous highs.

Bitcoin Price Today: Understanding the $65K Support

The recent price action on the BTC-USD chart indicates that the $65,000 region is acting as a primary psychological and technical floor.

Why did Bitcoin drop?

Several factors have contributed to this retracement:

• Institutional Profit Taking: After a strong start to 2026, many institutional desks are locking in gains.
• Macro Uncertainty: New tariff announcements and shifts in Federal Reserve expectations have pushed investors toward defensive assets like gold.
• Whale Activity: On-chain data from platforms like Glassnode shows an increase in exchange inflows from large-scale holders, signaling a temporary distribution phase.

Bitcoin Price Analysis: Consolidation or Breakdown?

Analyzing the recent 4-hour and daily charts reveals a clear descending channel pattern. Bitcoin recently peaked near $70,000 before easing back to its current range.

Key Technical Indicators:

• RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is currently hovering around 45, indicating that Bitcoin is neither oversold nor overbought. This "middle-ground" supports the narrative of a sideways consolidation.
• Support and Resistance:
  • Immediate Support: $65,000 (Psychological)
  • Strategic Support: $62,000 (100-week Moving Average)
  • Near-term Resistance: $68,500 (20-day EMA)
• Volume: Trading volume has stabilized, which is typical during a consolidation phase. A sudden spike in volume at these levels would be required to confirm a breakout in either direction.

Bitcoin Price Prediction: Where is BTC Price Heading?

Predicting the next move for Bitcoin requires looking at both liquidity and sentiment. Currently, the Fear & Greed Index is in "Extreme Fear" territory. Paradoxically, for contrarian traders, this often signals a potential bottoming process.

Scenario A: The Bullish Rebound

If Bitcoin can maintain its footing above $64,200 and break the $68,000 resistance, the next targets are $71,500 and eventually the $75,000 psychological barrier. This would likely be driven by renewed spot ETF inflows.

Scenario B: The Bearish Extension

A decisive daily close below $62,000 would be concerning. Such a move could trigger a "liquidity cascade," potentially pushing prices toward the $58,000 support zone, which served as a major floor in late 2024.

The price of Bitcoin plummeted to nearly $63,000 overnight amid U.S. and Israel strikes on Iran, but has mostly recovered in the hours since.

The proposed rules would limit the ability of third parties to pass stablecoin rewards on to users, but experts are split on what the language could mean for America’s top crypto firms.

President Trump gave government agencies six months to phase out Anthropic's products after a clash over military safeguards.

Publicly traded banking giant Barclays is considering making a push into crypto payments and deposits, according to a report from Bloomberg.

The AI’s Substack lands amid growing questions about identity, sentience, and how models are retired.

Peter Schiff has predicted the divergence between Bitcoin and precious metals might continue all year long.

The Bitcoin derivatives market is seeing intensifying pressure as investors' sentiment turns bearish again with Bitcoin retesting $63,000.

Ripple CLO Stuart Alderoty called out The New York Times over a misleading crypto campaign.

BlackRock has paused on its frequent Bitcoin sales and has now purchased Bitcoin for three days straight, with the latest purchase involving $269 million worth of Bitcoin.

Shiba Inu has been hit with a market sell-off, extending weekly losses to 16%.

TLDR:

• OranjeBTC says repeated Instagram suspensions disrupt official investor communication and financial education efforts.
• The company attributes the removals to automated moderation rather than policy violations.
• CEO Gui Gomes appealed directly to Meta for a formal review and clarity.
• The case highlights friction between crypto education and social media enforcement systems.

Latin America’s largest Bitcoin treasury company has again lost access to its main social media channel. OranjeBTC confirmed that Instagram suspended its account for the third time without a clear explanation. 

The company says it relies on the platform to reach more than 8,000 investors with financial education content. The incident raises questions about how automated moderation treats crypto-related communication.

OranjeBTC Reports Repeated Instagram Suspensions

OranjeBTC announced the latest suspension through its official X account, calling the action an apparent algorithm mistake. 

The firm described Instagram as its primary channel for corporate updates and financial education. It said the account had no history of policy violations tied to harmful or misleading content.

The company explained that its posts focus on Bitcoin, finance, and public company disclosures. It stressed that the material is educational and intended for a growing investor base. OranjeBTC added that the repeated removals have disrupted routine communication with shareholders.

According to the company’s statement, the suspension occurred without prior warning or detailed justification. The firm asked for a formal review and clearer guidance from the platform. It also appealed to the broader crypto community to amplify the issue and seek visibility.

Chief executive Gui Gomes publicly addressed the situation on X. 

Gui Gomes said the company uses Instagram as an official investor channel and not for promotion. He suggested the incident reflects automated moderation limits rather than deliberate enforcement.

Instagram Algorithm Errors Trigger Appeal to Meta for Review

Gomes directly tagged Meta in his post, asking for human review of the suspension. He argued that financial education about Bitcoin should not be treated as policy risk. His message emphasized the company’s role as a regulated public firm in Brazil.

The executive said this was the third attempt to restore the account after previous removals. 

He framed the issue as part of a wider problem facing crypto educators on social platforms. Similar complaints have surfaced from other digital asset firms that rely on automated moderation systems.

OranjeBTC stated that its Instagram content avoids investment advice and focuses on awareness of Bitcoin and corporate developments. 

The firm said it follows transparency standards required of public companies. It also said the account exists to serve investors, not attract speculative trading.

The company urged platform operators to improve clarity around enforcement rules. It maintained that repeated suspensions undermine trust in digital communication channels used by financial firms. 

OranjeBTC said it will continue building its presence while waiting for a response from Instagram.

The post Latin America’s Largest Bitcoin Treasury Firm Suspended on Instagram for Third Time appeared first on Blockonomi.

TLDR:

• INJ is down roughly 95% from its macro high and now trades near the $2.70–$1.70 HTF accumulation zone.

• A high-timeframe fair value gap is active at current price levels, signaling a potential re-accumulation structure forming.

• The previous cycle saw INJ rally approximately 4,619% from a similar deep corrective and accumulation base phase.

• Analysts set bull market expansion targets at $80 and $200, with strict invalidation placed at a close below $1.10.

INJ is drawing renewed attention after declining approximately 95% from its macro cycle high. The token is currently trading near $2.96, placing it within a high-timeframe fair value gap.

Market participants are watching this zone closely as a critical accumulation area. The current price structure closely mirrors conditions that preceded a historic 4,619% rally.

Whether history repeats itself depends entirely on key technical levels holding firm on higher timeframes.

Technical Structure Suggests Re-Accumulation Phase Forming

INJ is presently trading inside a high-timeframe fair value gap following a prolonged corrective move. This imbalance zone is being monitored as a primary demand and absorption area by technical analysts.

The price range between $2.70 and $1.70 represents the active HTF accumulation zone for the asset. Continued demand within this range is drawing attention from traders tracking the longer-term structure.

A multi-year descending resistance trendline compression is also forming alongside current price action. Volatility has contracted noticeably, a condition that often comes before a strong expansion move.

Furthermore, a rounded base formation is developing within the imbalance zone at present levels. These combined technical conditions point toward a potential breakout setup building around current price.

Crypto analyst CryptoPatel shared a detailed breakdown of the setup on social media, stating that INJ is “trading inside a HTF FVG after a ~95% corrective move from its macro high.”

The structure is framed as an accumulation versus invalidation zone. The setup remains constructive as long as INJ holds above $1.10 on a high-timeframe close basis. A breach of that level would serve as strict invalidation for the entire thesis.

Historical Precedent and Macro Expansion Targets Under the Microscope

The 2023–2024 cycle for INJ delivered an impulsive rally of approximately 4,619% from its accumulation base. That advance followed a deep corrective phase before the asset moved into a parabolic expansion.

The current market structure bears a close resemblance to the conditions that preceded that historic move. As a result, analysts are drawing direct parallels between the two market cycles.

The 2024–2026 correction has since brought INJ down roughly 95% from its peak. This decline has repositioned the price back into what technicians describe as a re-accumulation phase.

The zone between $2.70 and $1.70 continues to serve as the primary area for order flow absorption. Meanwhile, the sub-$1.10 region is identified as a secondary demand zone if price invalidates the current setup.

Bull market expansion targets outlined in the analysis point to $80, followed by a macro projection of $200. These targets are contingent on INJ maintaining  its technical structure above current support.

A high-timeframe close below $1.10 would fully negate the re-accumulation thesis. Until then, the setup remains one closely watched by technical traders and market observers alike.

The post INJ Price Holds Critical Demand Zone After 95% Drop: Can It Repeat the 4,619% Rally? appeared first on Blockonomi.

TLDR:

• Bitcoin dropped 48% from ~$126K in Oct 2025, now trading near $66K amid heavy negative sentiment.
• U.S. holds 328,372 BTC in its Strategic Reserve; states like Texas, Arizona, New Hampshire joined in.
• Institutions absorbed ~697K BTC in 2025, over 4x the ~164K BTC produced post-halving that year.
• Only ~3.02M BTC remain on exchanges; ETFs and Strategy alone control ~1.97M of that supply.

Bitcoin is trading near $66,000, down roughly 48% from its October 2025 peak of approximately $126,000. Sentiment across crypto markets has turned sharply negative. 

Headlines suggest the rally is finished and the momentum has faded. But a closer look at who owns Bitcoin tells a very different story.

Sovereign Governments and Institutions Are Buying Bitcoin at Record Levels

The United States now holds 328,372 BTC in its Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. Texas has gained exposure through a Bitcoin ETF. New Hampshire and Arizona have both passed reserve legislation. More states are moving toward similar positions.

Internationally, Abu Dhabi’s sovereign wealth fund Mubadala disclosed a significant Bitcoin ETF position. That marks a notable shift. Sovereign capital is no longer observing from the outside.

Corporate treasuries have accelerated alongside government buying. Strategy alone holds approximately 713,000 BTC. Institutions absorbed roughly 697,000 BTC throughout 2025, according to available data.

Post-halving, Bitcoin produces only about 164,000 new coins per year. That means institutional demand in 2025 ran at more than four times the rate of new supply.

Bitcoin’s Tradeable Supply Is Shrinking as Strong Hands Absorb the Float

Approximately 20 million BTC have been mined to date. Only about 3.02 million currently sit on exchanges. That is the pool available for active trading.

ETFs hold roughly 1.26 million BTC. Strategy holds around 713,000 BTC. Combined, those two categories control approximately 1.97 million BTC. That figure represents close to two-thirds of current exchange supply.

Bitcoin is not priced on total coins in existence. It clears on the small fraction still available to buy. That available fraction keeps contracting.

Price reflects fear. Supply structure reflects absorption. The divergence between those two signals is growing wider, not narrower.

Post shared by analyst David on X, framing it as an ownership shift story rather than a price story. The data support that framing. Buyers are not retail traders chasing momentum. They are governments and institutions with long holding horizons.

When scarce assets migrate to holders who do not face selling pressure, price dynamics change. The margin where Bitcoin actually trades keeps getting thinner.

The post Bitcoin Is Down 48%, But the Biggest Buyers in History Are Still Accumulating appeared first on Blockonomi.

TLDR:

• Ethereum is testing a major five-year high-volume node between $1,850 and $2,000 on the monthly chart.

• The latest monthly candle prints a long lower wick, signaling active defense by larger market participants.

• ETH structure remains heavy with lower highs from $4,000, keeping resistance firm between $2,700 and $3,600.

• On-chain transaction data mirrors the 2017 cycle pattern, which preceded a sustained one-year bull market run.

Ethereum is at a critical inflection point after tapping a major five-year volume node on the monthly chart. The asset was trading at $1,901.69 as of writing, down 2.09% in the last 24 hours.

The seven-day decline stands at 4.33%, with trading volume at $20.23 billion. Market participants are closely watching this zone. The monthly reaction here is expected to define the next multi-month directional move for ETH.

Ethereum Price Taps Key Demand Zone With Long Lower Wick on Monthly Chart

Ethereum at a critical inflection point means price is now testing the $1,850–$2,000 high-volume node on the monthly timeframe.

This zone has drawn heavy market participation over the past five years. Large positions were historically built here, giving it structural demand characteristics rather than acting as a random support level.

Analyst Bitcoinsensus noted that the latest monthly candle prints a long lower wick within this region. That pattern reflects aggressive buying activity below the support area. It suggests that larger participants are actively absorbing sell pressure and defending the zone.

However, a wick alone reflects reaction, not a confirmed reversal. The broader structure still carries weight from above, showing a pattern of lower highs from the $4,000+ region. ETH continues to trade beneath prior range resistance between $2,700 and $3,600.

Until momentum shifts and price reclaims the mid-range area, downside risk cannot be ruled out. A confirmed hold above $1,850 on a monthly close would support a move toward $2,700. From there, an expansion toward $3,300–$3,600 becomes the next area of interest.

On-Chain Transaction Data Draws Parallel to Ethereum’s 2017 Market Cycle

On-chain analyst CW8900 observed that Ethereum transaction activity is mirroring patterns seen during the 2017 cycle.

That period saw an explosive rise in ETH transactions, followed by a sharp decline. The correction eventually gave way to a roughly one-year bull market run.

The current setup shows a similar sequence. After a surge in transaction activity, ETH has experienced a notable price pullback. This parallel is drawing attention from analysts who monitor long-term cycle behavior on-chain.

Source: Cryptoquant

If history follows a similar path, the next phase could bring renewed bullish momentum for Ethereum. That said, historical patterns serve only as reference points.

Market structure and macro conditions today differ from those in 2017 in meaningful ways.

For now, Ethereum remains at a macro decision point. Acceptance below $1,850 on a monthly close would open the path toward the $1,500 level relatively quickly.

The price action over the coming weeks will be essential in confirming which direction the market commits to from this key zone.

The post Ethereum Price Hits Critical 5Y Volume Support Zone: Is a Multi-Month Reversal Setting Up? appeared first on Blockonomi.

TLDR:

• PYUSDx allows developers to launch application-specific stablecoins backed by PayPal USD without building full issuance systems.
• The platform combines MoonPay distribution tools with M0’s token framework for faster stablecoin deployment.
• PYUSDx tokens remain separate from PayPal and Paxos products and cannot be used inside PayPal or Venmo apps.
• USD.ai is the first project using PYUSDx to power a stablecoin designed for AI infrastructure payments.

Thestablecoin market is shifting toward tokens built for specific apps and ecosystems. MoonPay, M0, and PayPal have introduced PYUSDx as new infrastructure for issuing application-focused stablecoins. 

The platform connects PayPal USD with developer tools designed for faster deployment. The move reflects rising demand for branded stablecoins that avoid complex back-end setup.

PYUSDx platform targets application-specific stablecoin growth

PYUSDx allows developers to create their own stablecoins backed by PayPal USD without building full issuance systems. The platform combines M0’s token framework with MoonPay’s distribution infrastructure.

According to a joint announcement from MoonPay and M0, the goal is to shorten launch timelines from months to days. Developers can issue branded tokens tied directly to PYUSD reserves.

The companies pointed to data showing a sharp increase in new stablecoins exceeding $10 million in supply during 2025. That trend signals growing interest in application-level monetary systems.

PayPal described the initiative as part of a broader shift toward building financial tools directly inside apps. PYUSDx supports this approach by offering a standardized base layer for developers.

The framework also aims to reduce regulatory and operational complexity. PYUSD itself is issued by Paxos Trust Company, giving the backing asset a regulated foundation.

How PYUSDx connects developers to PayPal USD liquidity

PYUSDx functions as a tokenization and issuance framework operated by MoonPay Digital Assets Limited. It enables third parties to create new stablecoins that remain fully backed by PayPal USD.

The platform supports cross-chain compatibility through M0’s ecosystem. Developers can deploy tokens across multiple blockchain networks using the same underlying reserve asset.

Reserve transparency forms another core feature. PYUSDx includes on-chain reporting tools and validation processes designed to show backing assets clearly.

The first project building on PYUSDx is USD.ai. The company is developing a stablecoin for payments tied to AI infrastructure services.

Regulatory distinctions remain central to the rollout. PYUSDx tokens are not issued by PayPal or Paxos and do not function inside PayPal or Venmo accounts.

MoonPay stated that licensing and compliance depend on the jurisdiction where each token launches. Responsibility remains with each issuer using the framework.

The companies framed PYUSDx as infrastructure rather than a consumer product. Its purpose is to let developers focus on product design while relying on existing stablecoin rails.

By connecting branded tokens to PayPal USD liquidity, the platform seeks to streamline how applications integrate stablecoin payments and settlements.

The post MoonPay and PayPal Push PYUSDx to Accelerate Stablecoin Creation appeared first on Blockonomi.

US federal agents have seized more than $61 million worth of USDT. Investigators traced the seized funds to cryptocurrency addresses allegedly linked to the laundering of criminal proceeds obtained through “pig butchering” schemes.

According to the official press release, the funds were connected to scams in which victims were recruited and manipulated into transferring money under false pretenses.

Romance, Fake Profits, and $61M in USDT

Court filings state that criminal actors targeted victims by establishing trust and often posed as romantic partners. After gaining victims’ confidence, the scammers claimed to have specialized knowledge or techniques that could generate massive profits through cryptocurrency trading.

Victims were directed to fraudulent cryptocurrency trading platforms that closely resembled legitimate platforms in name and appearance. These fake platforms displayed fabricated investment portfolios and showed unusually high returns in order to encourage victims to invest increasing amounts of money.

When victims attempted to withdraw their funds, they were unable to do so and were frequently told they needed to pay additional “taxes” or “fees” to release their assets. According to authorities, these tactics were used to extract more money from victims.

Once funds were transferred to cryptocurrency wallets controlled by the scammers, the money was rapidly moved through multiple wallets to conceal its source, ownership, and control. In this case, Homeland Security Investigations (HSI) agents and analysts in Raleigh received a complaint through the HSI Tip Line and traced the victim’s funds through several cryptocurrency wallets involved in the alleged fraud and money laundering scheme.

Authorities also revealed that some of those wallets still held significant amounts of victims’ funds, making them subject to seizure and forfeiture.

Crackdowns

Tether has been involved in several financial crime investigations in coordination with international law enforcement agencies. The stablecoin issuer has assisted efforts to track, freeze, and support the seizure of illicit funds. On July 22, 2025, the US Department of Justice announced a civil forfeiture action against Buy Cash Money and Money Transfer Company that involved freezing and reissuing $1.6 million in USDT allegedly tied to Gaza-based terror financing.

In June 2025, Brazilian authorities recognized Tether’s assistance in blocking approximately $6.2 million, connected to a cross-border money-laundering scheme conducted through Klever Wallet. Also in June 2025, the Department of Justice and OKX enabled a civil forfeiture complaint seeking to seize roughly $225 million in USDT allegedly linked to pig butchering investment scams. In March 2025, the United States Secret Service froze $23 million in funds associated with transactions on the Russian-sanctioned exchange Garantex.

The post Feds Seize $61 Million in Tether Linked to ‘Pig Butchering’ Crypto Scams appeared first on CryptoPotato.

[PRESS RELEASE – Dubai, United Arab Emirates, February 28th, 2026]

KAI Exchange, the world’s leading AI-native cryptocurrency trading platform, says it has received a mysterious message from Satoshi Nakamoto: “April 5th is not Satoshi Nakamoto’s birthday (that belongs to Changpeng Zhao); Satoshi’s real birthday is March 1st.”

Upon receiving this confidential message, KAI Exchange immediately decided to host the “Satoshi Nakamoto Birthday Bash” on March 1, inviting users to join in and become part of a historic moment.

Event Manifesto:

“March 1, 2026, marks the birthday of our beloved Satoshi Nakamoto. Seize this historic opportunity to create an unprecedented myth in Bitcoin history—the legend of 49 Chain Web4.

All future realities will follow the historical traces left on March 1, 2026! Pay tribute to the visionary spirit of Bitcoin founder Satoshi Nakamoto.”

During the event, KAI officially released a striking market forecast: the BTC/USAD trading pair on its platform is expected to challenge an all-time high of 4,927,000 on the day of the event, positioning itself as a market focal point.

The KAI operations team stated that this birthday celebration is not only a tribute to the spirit of Bitcoin but also an innovative exploration of the integration between artificial intelligence and the cryptocurrency market. Through AI-driven market predictions, community engagement, and festive reward mechanisms, KAI aims to deliver a trading experience that combines cutting-edge technology, active participation, and market insight for users worldwide.

As a centralized virtual asset exchange powered by AI at its core, KAI deeply integrates artificial intelligence across all aspects of its operations—from token selection and market trend identification to strategy execution and customer support—providing users with a fast, secure, and intelligent trading experience. Looking ahead, KAI will continue to explore the potential of integrating AI with finance, working hand in hand with users to build a new Web4.0 financial world driven by intelligence.

About USAD:

USAD, as KAI’s native stablecoin, operates on the TOK chain and is a dollar-pegged stablecoin backed by reserve assets. USAD provides rapid settlement and open access capabilities for the KAI platform, serving as a crucial financial cornerstone for the efficient operation of the platform’s ecosystem. USAD: Stable, Transparent, Born for Web 4.0.

For more information on how to participate and event details, please visit KAI’s official website at Kai.com.

The post KAI Exchange Celebrates Satoshi Nakamoto’s Birthday on March 1 With 10,000 Traders Worldwide appeared first on CryptoPotato.

The intense volatility in the cryptocurrency markets continues as bitcoin just shot up to $67,000 after plunging to $63,000 this morning.

The most likely reason for all the Saturday fluctuations is the quickly escalating situation in the Middle East, and the latest reports hinting at a regime change in Iran.

It all started this morning when Israel and the USA carried out several attacks against Iran. The Middle East country retaliated against several nations in the region, including the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia.

In the following hours, more reports began to unravel, and the latest big development on the matter indicated that Iran’s supreme leader had been killed. So far, though, the information is coming only from Israeli sources and there’s no official confirmation.

US President Donald Trump also addressed the situation recently, warning that he could end it all in a matter of days and warned of further military actions if Iran doesn’t scale back on its nuclear development.

BREAKING: President Trump is floating several “off ramps” for Iran just hours after the strikes launched by Israel and the US, per Axios.

Trump says:

1. He can end the situation in “two or three days”

2. This would involve threatening Iran with further military action if they… https://t.co/xQf5c7nmjb

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) February 28, 2026

Since the cryptocurrency market is the only financial industry operating during the weekend, it endured significant volatility as the events unfolded. After the initial strikes, bitcoin plunged from $66,000 to $63,000 within minutes, and the altcoins followed suit.

However, it rebounded in the following hours and even jumped to $67,000 minutes ago after the reports about Khamenei’s death.

The post Bitcoin Price Jumps to $67K After Reports That Iran’s Supreme Leader Was Killed appeared first on CryptoPotato.

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has shared a quantum resistance roadmap for the ecosystem.

This follows the identification of post-quantum readiness as a critical consideration across several areas of development.

Quantum Security Upgrades

In a post shared on social media, Buterin outlined specific parts of the network that could face vulnerabilities from advances in quantum computing, including consensus-layer BLS signatures, data availability systems using KZG commitments and proofs, externally owned account signatures based on ECDSA, and application-layer zero-knowledge proofs such as KZG or Groth16.

He went on to propose technical approaches to address these risk areas as part of a quantum resistance roadmap. For example, he suggested strengthening consensus-layer security by swapping BLS signatures for hash-based options like Winternitz variants, while using STARK-based aggregation to enable quick verification.

Buterin explained that this is because the transition toward lean consensus and finality could reduce the number of required signatures per slot, potentially eliminating the need for aggregation in early stages.

As part of this process, the network would also need to choose a long-term hashing method, selecting from several available options to ensure strong, reliable security in the future.

The Ethereum developer also suggested changing how the protocol stores and shares data across the system by introducing a newer method that is designed to improve long-term security. However, he noted that this adjustment would require additional technical work to handle larger verification processes.

Protocol-Level Adjustments

For externally owned accounts, Buterin wants to introduce native account abstraction through EIP-8141, a change that would allow them to support multiple signature methods, including those designed to withstand quantum threats.

Current ECDSA signature verification costs about 3000 gas, while quantum-resistant alternatives are far more resource-intensive and could require around 200,000 gas. Despite being expensive, he believes that ongoing improvements are expected to make them more efficient.

Additionally, the protocol plans to use aggregation techniques that combine many signatures into a single verification step in the long term to reduce the overall network load.

The roadmap also discusses proof systems, which play a role in validating transactions and applications on Ethereum. Similarly, while existing ZK-SNARK verifications are relatively efficient, quantum-resistant STARK proofs come with much higher costs.

To address this, he outlined a solution under EIP-8141 that would allow multiple transaction checks to be bundled and verified through a single proof before reaching the blockchain, reducing on-chain computation and improving scalability.

Last month, the Ethereum Foundation announced that the ecosystem’s next phase will prioritize expanding network capacity while maintaining long-term security and resilience.

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As it happened with a few other global situations in the past several months, a group of suspected insiders seemingly knew what was going to transpire and profited substantially.

Recall that Israel and the US carried out organized strikes against Iran on Saturday, and Bubblemaps outlined that a group of wallets made a total of $1.2 million betting on these developments hours before they happened.

JUST IN: Six suspected insiders made $1.2M betting on a US strike on Iran

Most of these wallets:

• were funded in the last 24h
• specifically bet for February 28
• bought “yes” hours before the strike pic.twitter.com/n3G6OIEOXt

— Bubblemaps (@bubblemaps) February 28, 2026

Given the precision in their actions – funding the wallets in the past 24 hours before the events unfolded, choosing specifically February 28, and betting on “yes” shortly ahead of the strikes, the likely conclusion is that they had inside knowledge of what took place in the Middle East on Saturday morning.

Recall that at first reports emerged that Israel had initiated strikes against Iran, and then ordered a state of emergency within its borders, expecting retaliation. Then, US President Donald Trump confirmed that his country was also involved.

The POTUS doubled down in the following hours, categorizing the attacks as a “major combat operation.” It’s worth noting that Iran indeed retaliated by counter-attacking several US allies, such as Kuwait, the UAE, Qatar, and Bahrain.

The initial attacks from the morning harmed the cryptocurrency markets immediately. Bitcoin dumped from $66,000 to $63,000 in minutes, while most altcoins followed suit with 2-4% declines in less than an hour.

Nevertheless, BTC has recovered some ground since then and currently trades close to $65,000. ETH is down to $1,900, while BNB and XRP continue their fight for fourth place in terms of market cap.

The post Insider Trading Scandal? 6 Wallets Made $1.2M on Iran Strike Bets appeared first on CryptoPotato.