Indigenous tribes in the Amazon possess advanced knowledge of their environment, which remains largely unexplored by outsiders. These tribes view modern machinery and deforestation as existential threats to their way of life. The simplicity of life among indigenous tribes includes a lack of basic...

The post Paul Rosolie: Indigenous tribes possess advanced environmental knowledge, view modern machinery as existential threats, and see significant trees as sacred entities | Lex Fridman Podcast appeared first on Crypto Briefing.

Silver plays a crucial role in advancing machine intelligence, serving as a vital industrial metal. The democratization of AI has accelerated its integration into everyday technologies. A massive $85 trillion investment is projected for the global technological build-out over the next 15 years.

The post Jordi Visser: Silver is the key to AI and tech’s future | Raoul Pal appeared first on Crypto Briefing.

Market signals indicate Bitcoin may have hit its lowest point, setting the stage for potential recovery.

The post One of the most influential insiders in Bitcoin and global crypto markets: Bitcoin has likely hit its bottom, why diverse perspectives are crucial for investment success, and the barriers of privacy in crypto payments | The Wolf Of All Streets appeared first on Crypto Briefing.

Tether brings XAU tokenized gold dividends to public markets as gold consolidates near $4,900 and silver retreats to $73.

The post Tether brings tokenized gold dividends to public markets via XAU₮ appeared first on Crypto Briefing.

The relationship between the state and the individual has shifted, restricting fundamental liberties. Lockdowns lacked a philosophical grounding in principles of freedom. National debt is seen as stealing from the future of younger generations.

The post Montgomery Toms: Lockdowns erode freedoms and burden future generations | The Peter McCormack Show appeared first on Crypto Briefing.

Bitcoin Magazine

Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala Boosts Bitcoin ETF Holdings to $630 Million

Abu Dhabi’s sovereign wealth fund, Mubadala Investment Company, disclosed a significant increase in its position in BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), reporting ownership of 12.7 million shares valued at approximately $630.6 million as of December 31. 

This represents a 46% rise from the 8.7 million IBIT shares previously reported as of September 30. Mubadala manages a broad global portfolio spanning technology, healthcare, infrastructure, private equity and public markets, with assets under management exceeding USD 330 billion. 

The fund’s strategy aims to generate sustainable returns for the Government of Abu Dhabi and support economic diversification beyond oil.

Also in Q4 2025, Abu Dhabi-based Al Warda Investments increased its holdings in IBIT to 8.22 million shares in Q4 2025, up from 7.96 million in Q3, continuing a strategy shift that began earlier in the year.

The firm, part of the Abu Dhabi Investment Council under Mubadala, has historically favored private investments, making this public BTC ETF allocation notable for the region. 

In other words, Abu Dhabi investment vehicles together held over 20 million shares of BlackRock’s IBIT at the close of last year, with a combined value exceeding $1.1 billion.

Massive investment firms are buying Bitcoin exposure via IBIT

On top of this, Jane Street reportedly boosted its IBIT holdings by 7,105,206 shares in Q4 2025, bringing its total stake to 20,315,780 shares valued at $790 million.

Alongside Jane Street, BlackRock and Morgan Stanley also increased their IBIT positions by more than 2.37 million shares.

Last week, Goldman Sachs disclosed roughly $2.36 billion in total crypto exposure, including a $1.1 billion position in IBIT, signaling a shift from its earlier skepticism toward bitcoin. 

SEC filings also showed smaller holdings in Fidelity’s BTC fund, bitcoin-related companies, and options positions tied to IBIT, alongside exposure to Ethereum, XRP, and Solana. 

In November of last year, Texas became the first U.S. state to purchase Bitcoin for its Strategic Reserve, acquiring $5 million IBIT shares worth approximately $87,000 per BTC. The purchase was made while the state finalizes plans for self-custody of the asset. 

Texas had previously explored legislation to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve without using taxpayer funds. 

Harvard adjusted its crypto holdings in Q4 2025, cutting its Bitcoin position by 21% to 5.35 million IBIT shares ($265.8 million) while establishing a new $86.8 million stake in BlackRock’s iShares Ethereum Trust.

This post Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala Boosts Bitcoin ETF Holdings to $630 Million first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Micah Zimmerman.

Bitcoin Magazine

Satoshi’s Exercise for the Reader

The Bitcoin whitepaper is clear about Bitcoin’s core feature: it is permissionless. Anyone in the world can pay anyone by joining the peer-to-peer network and broadcasting a transaction. Proof of Work consensus even empowers anybody to become a block producer, and means that the only way to reverse a payment is to overpower everyone else through hashpower.

But Proof of Work only defines how to choose a winner amongst competing chains; it does not help a node discover it. A 51% attack – or a 100% attack – is much easier if an attacker can prevent nodes from hearing about competing chains. The job of discovery belongs to the peer-to-peer module, which juggles many contradictory tasks: Find honest peers in a network where nodes constantly join and leave, but without authentication or reputation. Always be on the lookout for blocks and transactions, but don’t be surprised if most data is garbage. Be robust enough to survive extreme adversarial conditions, but lightweight enough to run on a Raspberry Pi.

The implementation details for a permissionless peer-to-peer network were left out of the whitepaper, but constitute the bulk of the complexity in Bitcoin node software today.

Filters are for Spam

The whitepaper acknowledges public transaction relay as the cornerstone of Bitcoin’s censorship resistance, but only says a few words about how it should operate: “New transactions are broadcast to all nodes. Each node collects new transactions into a block. Each node works on finding a difficult proof-of-work for its block.”¹

Many find it amusing that Satoshi suggested every node would mine. Due to the centralizing pressure of mining variability, the vast majority of nodes on today’s network do not work on finding a proof-of-work. Perhaps that is an acceptable or even successful result of economic incentives; we traded a portion of decentralization for increased hashpower and thus security. However, Bitcoin’s censorship resistance will collapse if we also give up decentralized transaction relay.

Our desire for a wide pool of transaction relaying nodes must contend with the practicality of everyday computers exposing themselves to a permissionless network and processing data from anonymous peers. This threat model is unique and requires highly defensive programming.

In block download, a block’s proof-of-work elegantly serves as both Denial of Service (DoS) prevention and an unambiguous way to assess the utility of data. In contrast, unconfirmed transaction data is virtually free to create and might just be spam. For example, we cannot know whether the transaction meets its spending conditions until we have loaded the UTXO, which may require fetching from disk. It costs attackers absolutely nothing to trigger this relatively high latency activity: they can craft large transactions using inputs that do not belong to them or do not exist at all.

Validation steps such as signature verification and mempool dependency management can be computationally expensive. Famously, transactions with a large number of legacy (pre-segwit) signatures can take minutes to validate on some hardware², so most nodes filter out large transactions. Resource usage is not only local to the node either: accepted transactions are typically gossiped to other peers, using bandwidth proportional to the number of nodes on the network.

Nodes protect themselves by limiting the memory used for unconfirmed transactions and validation queues, throttling transaction processing per peer, and enforcing policy rules in addition to consensus. Yet these limits can also create censorship vectors when not designed carefully. The simple logic of not downloading a transaction that has already been rejected before, limiting the size of the transaction queue for a single peer, or dropping requests after failed download attempts can lead to nodes blinding themselves to a transaction. These bugs become accidental censorship vectors when exploited by the right attacker.

In this vein, while it is entirely logical to not keep unconfirmed transactions that are double-spends of each other (only one version can be valid), rejection of a double-spend means that an earlier broadcast precludes a later one from being mined. A double-spend could be an intentional attempt to fake a payment or, when a UTXO is owned by multiple parties, a pinning attack that exploits mempool policy to delay or prevent second layer settlement transactions from being mined. How should nodes choose?

This question brings us to the second element of transaction relay: incentive compatibility³. While fees are not relevant to consensus beyond limiting what a miner can claim as a block reward, they play a huge role in node policy as a utility metric. Assuming miners are driven by economic incentives, nodes can approximate which transactions are most attractive to mine and discard the least attractive ones. When transactions spend the same UTXO, the node can keep the more profitable one. While nodes do not collect fees, they can consider zero fee transactions as spam: they are likely to use up network resources but never be mined, yet cost virtually nothing to create.

These two design goals — DoS resistance and incentive compatibility — are in constant tension. While it is attractive to replace a transaction with a higher feerate-version, allowing repeated replacements with tiny fee bumps could waste the network’s bandwidth. Accounting for dependencies between unconfirmed transactions can create more profitable blocks (and enable CPFP), but can be expensive for complex topologies.

Historically, nodes relied on heuristics and dependency limits, which caused user friction and opened new pinning vectors. Mempools that track clusters can assess incentive compatibility more accurately but still must limit mempool dependencies. These types of restrictions create pinning vectors for transactions involving multiple parties that don’t trust each other: an attacker can prevent their co-transactor from employing CPFP by monopolizing the limit.

It is easy to trivialize these issues: pinning attacks are a niche type of censorship that only apply to shared transactions and typically only result in temporary transaction delays. Is it worth the effort to help non-mining nodes squeeze a few extra satoshis of fees?

A Deal with the Mevil

Shared transactions are the backbone of UTXO-mixing privacy solutions and second layer protocols. Much of Bitcoin development is focused on creating scalable, private, feature-rich applications in a second layer that falls back to settling on-chain. A common pattern is to temporarily delay withdrawals or settlement, allowing parties to respond to misbehavior within a time window. But many designs – including ones that are used to motivate consensus changes – gloss over fee-bumping in these scenarios.

A time window to prevent misbehavior is also a window of opportunity for attackers. These two conditions – shared transactions and confirmation deadlines to prevent misbehavior – create the perfect storm that upgrades the severity of pinning attacks from temporary transaction delays (meh) to potential theft (oh no!).

Pinning has been the subject of years of research and development effort resulting in the Topologically Restricted Until Confirmation (TRUC) transaction format⁴, Pay to Anchor (P2A) output type⁵, Ephemeral Dust policy⁶, Cluster Mempool⁷, limited relay of packages⁸, and various improvements to transaction relay reliability. These features are designed to provide stronger guarantees for propagating higher fee replacements of shared transactions.

Still, proper fee management involves overhead in the form of larger transactions, more complex wallet logic, and handling unlikely edge cases. An easy shortcut is to strike a deal with a miner: in exchange for a fee, the miner guarantees that their transactions will be mined promptly. This solution may prove more reliable than using the peer-to-peer network, which can have high latency and poor propagation due to heterogenous mempool policies.

Adoption of direct-to-miner submission can grow quickly when there is commercial interest. Exchanges represent a large proportion of transaction volume and probably prefer predictable timing over optimizing fees. Popular applications may be plagued with pinning attacks or want to use nonstandard transactions that common node policies prohibit. Companies and custodians concerned about quantum short-range attacks may create a private channel with a miner.

As private Miner Extractable Value (MEVil)⁹ becomes necessary to stay competitive, the network can snowball toward a model of centralized blockspace brokers. These services can become chokepoints for attackers and government mandates and undermine the premise that becoming a miner is permissionless.

If the transaction relay network becomes irrelevant for node operation, then participating in it may also feel unnecessary. In this hypothetical future, will we chuckle at the idea of every node on the network relaying unconfirmed transactions, the way we think it’s funny that Satoshi envisioned every node to be a miner?

The irony is that mining centralization does not begin with overt collusion or regulatory capture. It begins with a few rational shortcuts: more efficient agreements, custom relay paths, or performance optimizations that are beneficial to their participants. Nobody can stop these agreements from taking place. But we can try to reduce the competitive edge that private services have over the public network: iron out mempool pinning vectors before considering proposals for consensus changes that increase the potential for Mevil; make the public transaction relay network an efficient marketplace to bid (and update bids) for block space.

The peer-to-peer network is where many of Bitcoin’s core ideologies come to life. It is also an engineering challenge with painful tradeoffs between efficient node operation, censorship resistance, incentive alignment, and protocol complexity. It will only get harder as Bitcoin grows. How it should choose to reconcile these competing design goals is left as an exercise to the reader.

Don’t miss your chance to own The Core Issue — featuring articles written by many Core Developers explaining the projects they work on themselves!

This piece is the Letter from the Editor featured in the latest Print edition of Bitcoin Magazine, The Core Issue. We’re sharing it here as an early look at the ideas explored throughout the full issue.

[1] https://bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf

[2] https://delvingbitcoin.org/t/great-consensus-cleanup-revival/710 

[3] https://delvingbitcoin.org/t/mempool-incentive-compatibility/553 

[4] https://github.com/bitcoin/bips/blob/master/bip-0431.mediawiki 

[5] https://github.com/bitcoin/bitcoin/pull/30352 

[6] https://bitcoinops.org/en/topics/ephemeral-anchors/ 

[7] https://delvingbitcoin.org/t/an-overview-of-the-cluster-mempool-proposal/393?u=glozow 

[8] https://bitcoinops.org/en/topics/package-relay/ 

[9] https://bluematt.bitcoin.ninja/2024/04/16/stop-calling-it-mev/ 

This post Satoshi’s Exercise for the Reader first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Gloria Zhao.

Bitcoin Magazine

Abu Dhabi’s Al Warda Raises Bitcoin ETF Stake to 8.2 Million IBIT Shares in Q4 Filing

Abu Dhabi-based Al Warda Investments continued to expand its exposure to bitcoin through BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) in the fourth quarter of 2025, extending a strategy shift that began earlier in the year.

In a filing released today, Al Warda reported owning 8,218,712 shares of IBIT as of Dec. 31, up from 7,963,393 shares at the end of the third quarter. The increase follows a sharp Q3 buildup, when the firm more than tripled its stake and raised its bitcoin ETF exposure to $517.6 million.

Al Warda operates under the Abu Dhabi Investment Council (ADIC), part of Mubadala Investment Co., one of the region’s leading sovereign wealth groups. The council has rarely taken public positions in listed digital assets, typically favoring private market investments such as buyouts, infrastructure, and real estate.

Its growing allocation through a U.S.-listed bitcoin ETF signals a shift in institutional positioning within the Gulf. A spokesperson for ADIC previously told Bloomberg that bitcoin is increasingly viewed as a long-term store of value alongside gold, citing its role in portfolio diversification as financial markets move toward a more digital future.

The Q4 increase comes after bitcoin surged toward an October peak near $126,000 before retreating below $90,000 in November. Bitcoin is currently trading near $67,000. 

Other institutions exploring Bitcoin via IBIT

Last week, Goldman Sachs disclosed roughly $2.36 billion in total crypto exposure, including a $1.1 billion position in IBIT, signaling a shift from its earlier skepticism toward bitcoin. 

SEC filings also showed smaller holdings in Fidelity’s Bitcoin fund, bitcoin-related companies, and options positions tied to IBIT, alongside exposure to Ethereum, XRP, and Solana. 

In November of last year, Texas became the first U.S. state to purchase Bitcoin for its Strategic Reserve, acquiring $5 million IBIT shares worth approximately $87,000 per BTC. The purchase was made through BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) while the state finalizes plans for self-custody of the asset. 

Texas had previously explored legislation to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve without using taxpayer funds. In June, the governor signed the law creating the state’s Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.

Harvard also adjusted its crypto holdings in Q4 2025, cutting its Bitcoin position by 21% to 5.35 million IBIT shares ($265.8 million) while establishing a new $86.8 million stake in BlackRock’s iShares Ethereum Trust. 

Combined crypto exposure totaled $352.6 million, with Bitcoin remaining the endowment’s largest publicly disclosed equity.

This post Abu Dhabi’s Al Warda Raises Bitcoin ETF Stake to 8.2 Million IBIT Shares in Q4 Filing first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Micah Zimmerman.

Bitcoin Magazine

Strategy ($MSTR) Buys $168M in Bitcoin, Expands Holdings to 717,131 BTC

Strategy, the bitcoin treasury company led by Executive Chairman Michael Saylor, purchased $168.4 million in bitcoin last week, continuing its long-running accumulation strategy despite ongoing volatility in the crypto market.

The company disclosed that it acquired 2,486 BTC over the past week, expanding its already sizable holdings. The company’s total bitcoin reserves now stand at 717,131 BTC, making it one of the largest corporate holders of bitcoin globally.

According to the company, the full position has been accumulated for $54.52 billion, representing an average purchase price of $76,027 per bitcoin. 

With bitcoin currently trading around $68,000, Strategy’s holdings sit below its aggregate cost basis. The difference implies an unrealized loss of roughly $8,000 per coin, or approximately $5.7 billion across the company’s total stack.

Saylor confirmed the latest purchase in a statement posted Tuesday, noting that Strategy continues to build its bitcoin position as part of its broader corporate treasury strategy. The company has consistently added bitcoin through market cycles, framing the asset as a long-term reserve holding.

Strategy accounted for more than 90% of net new public-company purchases in January. Public companies now hold about 1.13 million BTC total, with Strategy controlling nearly two-thirds, while also expanding its influence through hybrid digital credit instruments like STRC and STRF. 

Strategy’s common stock sales

The filing also detailed how the most recent purchases were financed. The company said the bitcoin buys were funded through $90.5 million in proceeds from common stock sales, alongside $78.4 million raised from sales of its STRC preferred series. 

The company has relied on a mix of equity issuance and other financing tools in recent years to support its bitcoin accumulation program.

Strategy’s approach has drawn both strong support and criticism from market participants. Advocates view the company as a pioneer in institutional bitcoin adoption, while skeptics point to the risks of leveraging corporate capital markets activity to increase exposure to a volatile asset.

The purchases come at a time when bitcoin has traded well below record highs, putting pressure on companies with large treasury allocations. Its average acquisition cost now exceeds the current market price, highlighting the drawdowns that can occur even for firms that have built positions over multiple years.

In equity markets, Strategy shares reflected continued investor caution. MSTR stock was down 3.2% in premarket trading Tuesday and has declined more than 60% year-over-year, according to market data. 

Last Friday, shares of MSTR surged over 10%.

Despite the near-term losses implied by Bitcoin’s pullback, the company has maintained its commitment to holding and acquiring more BTC. The company has repeatedly stated that it views bitcoin as a long-duration asset and a central pillar of its balance sheet ideas.

This post Strategy ($MSTR) Buys $168M in Bitcoin, Expands Holdings to 717,131 BTC first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Micah Zimmerman.

Bitcoin Magazine

Nakamoto Inc. ($NAKA) to Acquire BTC Inc and UTXO Management

Nakamoto Inc. (NASDAQ: NAKA) announced today that it has entered into merger agreements to acquire BTC Inc, the leading provider of Bitcoin-related media and events, and UTXO Management GP, LLC (“UTXO”), an investment firm focused on private and public Bitcoin companies (collectively, the “Transaction”).

The Transaction is expected to close in the first quarter this year, subject to customary closing conditions, and will be financed entirely with Nakamoto common stock in accordance with Nakamoto’s call option under the Marketing Services Agreement (the “MSA”), using a price of $1.12 per share. The Company’s option to acquire BTC Inc and UTXO, through BTC Inc’s call option with UTXO, was previously disclosed as part of Nakamoto’s proposed merger with Nakamoto Holdings, Inc. (“Nakamoto Holdings”).

The MSA, outlines the terms of the Company’s option and was publicly filed and approved by the Company’s shareholders in connection with that transaction. Following shareholder approval, Nakamoto, BTC Inc, and UTXO engaged in extensive joint marketing initiatives across BTC Inc’s media and events platforms. Nakamoto exercised its call option with BTC Inc and BTC Inc exercised its call option with UTXO concurrently with signing of the merger agreements.

The Transaction is intended to further establish Nakamoto as a diversified Bitcoin operating company with a global brand, established distribution networks, and institutional capabilities across media, asset management, and advisory services. BTC Inc and UTXO are expected to provide recurring earnings to strengthen the Company’s balance sheet and support growth initiatives, including additional Bitcoin accumulation and strategic acquisitions.

“Bringing BTC Inc and UTXO into Nakamoto has been a part of our vision since day one,” said David Bailey, Chairman and CEO of Nakamoto. “We intend to operate a portfolio of companies across media, asset management, and advisory services that can scale with Bitcoin’s long-term growth. BTC Inc and UTXO are global leaders in Bitcoin media and asset management. This transaction signifies the first step of the company we intend to build, and we’re just getting started.”

The Transaction will be financed entirely with Nakamoto common stock in accordance with Nakamoto’s call option under the MSA, using a price of $1.12 per share. BTC Inc and UTXO securityholders will receive, on a fully diluted basis, 363,589,816 shares of Nakamoto common stock, subject to customary purchase price adjustments at closing, The combined value of this consideration is $107,295,354, before any such customary purchase price adjustments, which is based on Nakamoto’s closing price on February 13, 2026, of $0.2951.

BTC Inc: The Global Leader in Bitcoin Media and Events

BTC Inc, headquartered in Nashville, is the one of the largest Bitcoin media companies in the world, based on event attendance, online audience, and brand portfolio. Its holdings include 27 media brands, reaching approximately 6 million people globally through its aggregated social media followers. 

BTC Inc organizes The Bitcoin Conference, the largest Bitcoin event series in the U.S., Asia, Europe, and the Middle East, which hosted more than 67,000 attendees in 2025. 

BTC Inc is also the parent company of Bitcoin Magazine, which was first published in May 2012, establishing the publication as the longest-running source of Bitcoin news, information, and expert commentary. 

BTC Inc also operates Bitcoin for Corporations, a membership-based platform for companies adopting Bitcoin as a strategic treasury asset, which currently hosts over 40 member companies and has a 5-year brand partnership with Strategy Inc. for hosting networking events and educational content.

“For more than a decade, BTC Inc has focused on informing, convening, and advancing the global Bitcoin community,” said Brandon Green, Chief Executive Officer of BTC. “Combining with Nakamoto represents a significant opportunity to scale our reach, deepen engagement, and support the next phase of Bitcoin’s growth across enterprises and investors.”

UTXO: Investing in Bitcoin Acceleration

UTXO is the adviser to 210k Capital, LP, a hedge fund focused on Bitcoin, Bitcoin-related securities, and derivatives. The investment team leverages extensive experience in the Bitcoin ecosystem to allocate capital across public and private market opportunities.

“UTXO was founded to back the builders and companies shaping the Bitcoin economy,” said Tyler Evans, Chief Investment Officer of Nakamoto and Chief Investment Officer of UTXO. “Leveraging Nakamoto’s public platform and robust treasury, we see a powerful opportunity to compound value across the Bitcoin ecosystem and reinforce Bitcoin’s role as a foundational asset in modern capital markets.”

About Nakamoto Inc.

Nakamoto Inc. (NASDAQ: NAKA) is a Bitcoin company that owns and operates a global portfolio of Bitcoin- native enterprises spanning media and information, asset management, and advisory services. For more information, please visit nakamoto.com.

Bitcoin Magazine is published by BTC Inc. BTC Inc. has entered into an agreement to be acquired by Nakamoto Inc. (NASDAQ: NAKA); the transaction has not yet closed.

This post Nakamoto Inc. ($NAKA) to Acquire BTC Inc and UTXO Management first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Nik and Micah Zimmerman.

Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) has become the public market’s most widely traded Bitcoin proxy, using equity, convertible notes, and preferred stock to build a balance sheet dominated by the top crypto.

However, as Bitcoin trades near $68,000 and Strategy shares hover below $130, investors are paying closer attention to the mechanisms that allow the company to continue buying BTC without becoming a forced seller.

Industry experts such as Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone have warned that Bitcoin could decline to $10,000.

While this drawdown scenario presents challenges for the firm, the Michael Saylor-led firm appears confident in its ability to navigate these issues even if BTC falls to $8,000.

However, it is a calendar date and a stock price level that raise more serious concerns.

Holders of Strategy’s $1.01 billion convertible notes due 2028 can require the company to repurchase the notes for cash on Sept. 15, 2027, a feature that becomes more threatening when the stock trades below the notes’ initial conversion price of about $183.19 a share.

For years, Strategy benefited from a market structure in which many investors could not easily buy spot Bitcoin in a US ETF wrapper.

That dynamic helped support periods when the stock traded at a premium to the implied value of its Bitcoin holdings per share, a cushion that made new fundraising less expensive.

With spot Bitcoin ETFs now established, that premium has been harder to sustain, and the company’s reliance on issuing shares to fund its strategy becomes more visible.

Strategy’s own dashboard underscores how quickly the equity base has expanded. As of Feb. 16, the company reported 333.755 million basic shares outstanding and 366.114 million assumed diluted shares, and held 717,131 Bitcoin.

Those figures provide the market’s simplest way to track the trade-off between accumulating Bitcoin and spreading the claim across more shares.

The 2027 put

Convertible debt is often described as “cheap” funding because the coupon is low.

Strategy’s 2028 converts pay 0.625% interest, but the risk investors are focusing on is not coupon pressure. It occurs when the equity option embedded in the notes is never exercised.

The notes mature on Sept. 15, 2028, but the put date arrives a year earlier.

If Strategy’s stock is comfortably above $183.19 as Sept. 15, 2027, approaches, noteholders have a stronger incentive to convert into equity, or at least less incentive to demand cash, because the conversion feature has value.

However, if the stock is below $183.19, demanding cash becomes more appealing, and the company needs a plan to meet roughly $1 billion in a market that may be unwilling to fund Bitcoin-linked leverage on generous terms.

Strategy’s dashboard shows why that conversion price has become a reference point. The company lists the assumed share impact of each convertible series, including the 2028 notes, which are tied to $183.19.

This is not just an accounting table. It is a map of incentives that turns one stock price level into a de facto stress threshold.

The company has argued publicly that even severe Bitcoin drawdowns do not automatically translate into insolvency because the balance sheet includes substantial assets.

But the market’s more immediate concern is not bankruptcy math. It is the set of financing choices that protect the Bitcoin position while shifting costs onto common shareholders through dilution, especially when the stock is weak.

Equity issuance as the pressure valve

Strategy’s recent capital-raising demonstrates how central equity issuance has become.

In its fourth-quarter 2025 results, the company reported raising approximately $5.6 billion in gross proceeds during the quarter and an additional $3.9 billion between Jan. 1 and Feb. 1, 2026. Most of that came from selling common stock through its at-the-market program.

The company reported selling 24,769,210 shares for approximately $4.4 billion in the fourth quarter and another 20,205,642 shares for $3.4 billion in January, with $8.1 billion remaining under the common ATM as of Feb. 1.

That pace matters because dilution is not an abstract risk. It is the operating method. When the stock trades lower, each additional dollar raised requires issuing more shares, permanently diluting the per-share claim on the Bitcoin holdings that investors believe they are buying exposure to.

Strategy’s basic share count rose to 333.755 million by Feb. 16, up from 312.062 million at year-end 2025, according to its dashboard.

This is the core tension for common shareholders. The company has positioned its approach as maximizing “Bitcoin per share” over time.

But in the short run, dilution can outpace perceived gains if capital must be raised under weak conditions, or if the stock’s premium to the implied Bitcoin value compresses and remains compressed.

Strategy's cash reserve trade-off

There is a direct counterargument to the 2027 alarm. Strategy has built liquidity and outlined a reserve policy that, on paper, could cover a cash repurchase without selling Bitcoin.

The company reported $2.3 billion in cash and cash equivalents as of Dec. 31, 2025, and said the increase from the prior year reflected the establishment of a $2.25 billion “USD Reserve.”

The company stated that the reserve was designed to cover 2.5 years of preferred dividends and debt interest, and that it was funded with proceeds from the sale of common stock through the ATM.

Strategy also stated that its current intention is to maintain the reserve at a level sufficient to fund two to three years of those payments, while reserving the right to adjust it based on market conditions and liquidity needs.

In practice, using the reserve to cover a Sept. 2027 cash put would merely shift the problem rather than resolve it.

If Strategy spends down a large portion of a buffer it designed for recurring obligations, it may face harder questions about how it maintains preferred dividends and interest coverage in a weak tape.

If it chooses to rebuild the reserve, it will likely return to the same tool that originally built it: selling more common stock. If the stock is still weak, rebuilding can lead to issuing more shares at lower prices, thereby compounding dilution.

The third path is refinancing the bonds. That preserves the reserve but still relies on the capital markets' willingness to fund the strategy’s structure at the time.

For a company whose identity is bound to Bitcoin, the key risk is not only where Bitcoin trades. The question would become whether investors remain willing to finance leveraged Bitcoin exposure through corporate securities when simpler ETF exposure is available.

Strategy's preferred funding and rising costs

Meanwhile, Strategy’s financing stack is not limited to convertibles and common stock.

The Michael Saylor-led firm has also recently issued preferred securities that it describes as part of a “Digital Credit” platform, including a variable-rate preferred known as STRC.

In its fourth-quarter results, Strategy highlighted a rules-based dividend adjustment framework intended to keep STRC trading near its stated $100 price.

The framework contemplates increases in the dividend rate if STRC trades below specified levels.

For example, the company stated that it intends to recommend a 50-basis-point or greater increase in the dividend rate if the monthly volume-weighted average price is below $95, and a 25-basis-point or greater increase if it trades between $95 and $98.99, subject to board approval.

For common shareholders, that structure embeds a second kind of reflexivity. If risk appetite declines and preferred prices weaken, dividend rates may increase to defend pricing. Higher funding costs can increase the need to raise additional capital.

If the company leans on common issuance to do it, dilution becomes the pressure valve again.

This is why the stress debate has shifted. The question is less about whether Strategy is forced to sell its 717,131 BTC tomorrow. The question is how expensive it becomes to avoid selling Bitcoin over time.

What to watch between now and 2027

Industry forecasts for Bitcoin price remain wide, with Standard Chartered warning that Bitcoin could slide toward $50,000 before recovering and has cut its end-2026 target to $100,000.

For Strategy, the key is not which number wins the forecast battle. It is how each path affects two variables that drive the dilution question.

The first is whether the stock can reclaim levels above $183.19 as Sept. 15, 2027 approaches, which changes noteholder incentives and reduces the chance of a cash demand.

The second is the amount of equity Strategy must issue to maintain its cash-coverage stance, including the $2.25 billion reserve, which is estimated to cover about 2.5 years of preferred dividends and debt interest, while leaving options open for the 2027 put.

A sideways Bitcoin market can still be painful if it keeps the stock weak and pushes the company to raise capital at unfavorable prices. A rebound can ease dilution pressure even if Strategy continues to raise funds, because each dollar raised would require fewer shares.

Analysts cited by the Wall Street Journal have said they see no immediate financial risk given prior capital raising and reserves.

For common shareholders, the forward-looking question is narrower and occurs on a timeline.

Can Strategy bridge to Sept. 15, 2027 without turning its Bitcoin strategy into a multi-year dilution strategy, even if Bitcoin never gets close to $8,000?

The post Saylor confirms Strategy will survive Bitcoin crashing to $8,000 – but can it escape the slow bleed of dilution? appeared first on CryptoSlate.

The Bitcoin “buy zone” meme just got real again, here’s what it means in the ETF era

A certain kind of Bitcoin post shows up right on schedule. It usually arrives right after price stops feeling fun.

This week it came from PricedinBTC, dressed up as a neat table titled “Forward Returns by Drawdown Level.”

The headline numbers do the heavy lifting, buying at a 50% drawdown supposedly delivers around a 90% win rate over the next year, with average returns near 125%. The caption ends with “LOCK IN,” the kind of line that sounds like advice and reads like a challenge.

People share these charts for the same reason they bookmark workout plans. Drawdowns scramble the brain, even for holders who swear they feel nothing. A clean rule offers relief, a line in the sand, a way to act without re-living the whole debate every time the price ticks down.

This one is circulating at a moment when the math sits close to the meme. Bitcoin has been trading around the high $60,000s, and the last peak still hangs over the market. That puts the drawdown in the mid-40% range, close enough that sustained pressure can push it into the minus-50% bucket.

The chart makes the dip feel like a destination, and history offers comfort. The same history also carries a warning label. Research from iShares notes four drawdowns greater than 50% since 2014, the three largest averaged around an 80% decline, and recoveries took close to three years in three out of four cases.

That gap between “one year later” and “living through it” is where a lot of confidence gets tested. Today, that test runs through new plumbing, spot ETFs, rate expectations, the dollar, and options hedging, all visible in real time.

Related Reading

Bitcoin refuses to lose $70,000 this weekend. Was my $49k bottom call wrong?

Bitcoin must reclaim $71,500 before Monday to confirm a local bottom after softening inflation data in CPI release.

Feb 14, 2026 · Liam 'Akiba' Wright

The minus 50% line feels like a promise, and it sits close

Using the last peak above $126,000 as the reference point, the levels land in familiar places. Minus 50% is around $63,000, minus 60% is around $50,000, and minus 70% is around $38,000. With bitcoin near $68,000, the first line sits within a few thousand dollars.

That proximity turns a number into a plan. Some people start stacking cash, waiting for the tag. Some buy early to avoid missing it. Some freeze when it finally arrives, because the move down feels louder than the chart looked on their screen.

The meme works as a psychological tool because it compresses chaos into a simple trigger.

The lived experience expands again the moment the trigger hits, and the drawdown keeps moving. The iShares drawdown history matters here, because it frames a deeper truth, many “winning” entries still came with a long stretch of doubt, and sometimes a much deeper slide, before the recovery showed up.

Winning with Bitcoin isn't quite as simple as buying Bitcoin early. Anyone who has been around for over a decade has at least one story about a time they sold too early. I certainly do. I have a 7-figure HDMI cable lying around somewhere that I bought using Dogecoin in 2014.

Related Reading

Bitcoin on track to equal its most bearish period in history – only one price matters now

After over $2 billion in Bitcoin ETF outflows recently, BTC is down 12% month-on-month heading for a new record in March.

Feb 16, 2026 · Liam 'Akiba' Wright

ETFs turned the dip into a daily receipt

Spot Bitcoin ETFs added a scoreboard that everyone can watch, every day. US spot bitcoin ETFs held roughly 1.265 million BTC as of market close on Feb. 13, with AUM around $87 billion.

That scale changes how drawdowns travel through the market. A large wrapper can support price during calm periods, and it can also amplify selling pressure when flows turn negative, because the shift becomes visible, measurable, and easy to follow.

There's been roughly 55,665 BTC in net outflows over the last 30 days, a multi-billion dollar swing at prevailing prices. That kind of drain can keep price heavy even when social feeds stay full of “buy zone” confidence.

It also gives dip buyers a new confirmation tool, flow stabilization, because capitulation often shows up as outflows slowing, flattening, and eventually reversing.

Rates and inflation shape the opportunity cost

A lot of the next chapter of Bitcoin depends on macroeconomic conditions that feel unglamorous: yields, inflation prints, and how investors price risk across the board.

The Federal Reserve held its target range at 3.50% to 3.75% in late January. Inflation has also been easing, with US inflation at 2.4% in January, a data point that feeds rate cut expectations and shift risk appetite.

Cross-market proxies help frame that mood. The S&P 500 proxy SPY gives a read on broad risk appetite, long-duration Treasuries via TLT reflect the rate backdrop, and gold through GLD captures the defensive bid.

When those markets lean toward safety and yield, Bitcoin drawdowns often feel heavier, and when the mood shifts toward easing conditions, dip buying tends to find more oxygen.

Options markets are pricing a wide lane

The viral table feels calm on the page, and the options market tends to speak in wider ranges. On Unusual Whales, Bitcoin options show an implied move of about 6.66% into Feb. 20, with implied volatility around 0.5656.

High implied moves affect behavior in obvious ways. Dip buyers want clean levels and fast confirmation. Hedgers stay active when uncertainty stays elevated.

Short-term swings become part of the baseline, which can turn the minus 50% line into a waypoint rather than a floor.

That loops back to the long drawdown record from iShares, because big recoveries often came with messy paths and long timelines.

A drawdown strategy lives or dies on whether the buyer can handle the path, not simply the endpoint.

Three lanes for the next chapter, with levels people can watch

The cleanest way to frame the near term is as conditional lanes, each tied to signals anyone can track.

1. In a grinding base case, Bitcoin holds the low to mid $60,000s, the market churns, ETF outflows slow toward flat, and volatility cools. The flow tape becomes the tell here, because shrinking 30-day outflows usually signal fading sell pressure.
2. In a liquidity turns friendly case, inflation keeps easing, rate cut expectations firm up, and risk appetite improves across markets. ETF flows flip positive and stay positive, which can pull bitcoin back toward the prior highs.
3. In a deeper capitulation case, outflows continue, macro turns risk off, and bitcoin slides through the minus-50 % line toward the $50,000 zone, with pressure that can extend to deeper drawdown levels.

The buy zone meme offers a simple story, and the market offers conditions. The useful version of this chart sits next to the real-time scoreboard, the ETF flow tape, the rates backdrop, and the uncertainty gauge.

That is the real human-interest angle in this cycle: the emotional urge for a clean rule and the institutional mechanics that now shape how that rule plays out in real time.

Strategic dollar cost averaging and market timing

Historically, this part of the cycle is a great time to buy Bitcoin. However, as I've stated multiple times in my analysis over the last 8 months, “this time is different.”

We can legitimately question the four-year cycle theory; we have 6% of the supply held by US ETF funds, and corporate treasuries have exploded.

This is not the same Bitcoin market as 2012, 2016, 2020, or even 2024.

Personally, I'm too emotional a trader, so I stopped trying to time the market years ago.

One methodology that removes the risk involved with trying to time the market is the strategic DCA.

You purchase BTC every day, but send slightly more BTC to exchanges than the daily buy. That leaves a surplus of cash that grows over time. Then, when Bitcoin falls to a price that looks cheap, you have some funds available to buy the dip. You've already allocated those funds to Bitcoin; you just haven't pulled the trigger until a dip. That way, you get the benefit of DCA smoothing, augmented by heavier allocations during drawdowns.

Historically, Bitcoin rarely stays below a previous cycle's all-time high for long. At $68,000, we're right on the money for 2021. In 2022, Bitcoin dipped below the 2017 all-time high for around 30 days before starting its three-year climb to $126,000.

Again, none of this is designed to be individual investment advice, and there is risk involved with any investment. However, this article touches on some of the things Bitcoin investors should consider when deciding when, if, and how to increase their Bitcoin allocations in their portfolios, in my opinion.

The post If Bitcoin drops 5% more it can trigger a bull stampede from the “buy zone” sitting around $63k appeared first on CryptoSlate.

A botched home invasion in the Paris suburbs on Feb. 12 marked a tactical shift in crypto's physical-threat or “wrench attack” landscape.

The target, according to French media reports, was the CEO of Binance France. Binance confirmed an employee was targeted and said the employee and family are safe.

Two phones were stolen before the suspects were arrested at Lyon Perrache station. The assailants reportedly entered the wrong residence first before moving to their intended target. This detail suggests reconnaissance and intent, not opportunism.

The incident is more concerning than the rising baseline of wrench attacks.

This was a named executive at a recognizable institutional brand, the largest crypto exchange by trading volume.

The attackers were comfortable hunting a figure tied directly to a corporate chart, not just a wallet balance.

That comfort signals a new phase: organized criminals have elevated crypto coercion into a structured, coordinated line of work.

They are professionalizing target selection, with France emerging as the clearest example of this shift.

Record-breaking “wrench attack” wave

CertiK's 2025 Wrench Attacks Report logged 72 verified physical coercion incidents globally, a 75% increase over 2024, with confirmed losses exceeding $40.9 million.

The firm explicitly notes this figure undercounts the true scale, as many victims don't report, and some incidents never surface publicly. Europe accounted for 40.3% of all attacks, and within Europe, France led with 19 verified cases.

The brutality mix is shifting. Kidnapping became the dominant vector in 2025, with 25 incidents globally. Physical assaults surged 250% year-over-year, rising from four cases in 2024 to 14 in 2025.

The tactics are diversifying: home invasions, street abductions, and family targeting. Criminals are treating physical coercion as a repeatable business model with predictable returns, and the data shows they're iterating on methods that work.

Early 2026 has maintained the France-heavy pattern. Tracking by Jameson Lopp and coverage across French and international outlets document a disproportionate concentration of cases in French jurisdictions.

The Binance France incident fits the trend, but it also extends it. Executives were rarely the primary target category until now.

Why executives change the calculus

Targeting an exchange CEO introduces variables that retail whale-hunting doesn't.

Executives are assumed to hold three things that make them high-value marks: personal holdings, privileged system access, and wealthy networks.

Whether those assumptions are accurate is irrelevant. What matters is whether criminals believe they are.

CertiK explicitly frames the evolution: attacks have moved from opportunistic crime to organized, OSINT-driven operations. Finding a CEO's home address is easier than finding a pseudonymous whale's cold storage location. Corporate records, LinkedIn profiles, conference speaker lists, and real estate filings create a discoverable attack surface.

The perceived payout is larger and faster. An executive can unlock institutional resources or leverage them to meet ransom demands that exceed what any individual could pay.

The attack surface extends beyond the executive. Reuters' coverage of French incidents shows abductors targeting relatives, such as CEOs' daughters and fathers of founders, because coercive economics favor soft targets over hardened ones.

A family member at home is easier to intercept than a security-conscious principal, and the leverage is equivalent.

Why France became the “wrench attack” hotspot

France's dominance in wrench attack statistics isn't random. Five structural factors converge to make it uniquely vulnerable.

First, France hosts a dense, visible crypto founder class. Ledger is headquartered in Paris. Paymium is one of Europe's oldest exchanges. Multiple high-profile figures and entities are publicly associated with French addresses, creating a target-rich environment for criminals who do basic research.

Repeated cases show attackers targeting identifiable figures and their relatives, suggesting that name recognition drives target selection.

Second, doxxing and data availability create mapable targets. The Wall Street Journal documented how data leaks and public records expose addresses, turning an abstract “crypto user” into a concrete “person at this location.”

In January 2026, hackers breached Waltio, a French crypto tax software provider, reportedly obtaining emails and tax reports tied to roughly 50,000 users.

French authorities are investigating. Linking identity, crypto activity, and location is exactly what turns surveillance into operational targeting.

More explosive is the reported allegation, still under investigation, that a French tax office employee sold sensitive lookup results about crypto investors.

French media describe the case as an active prosecution. If substantiated, it suggests criminals had direct access to government-held identity and financial data.

Third, organized kidnapping infrastructure appears to be repeatable and coordinated. Le Monde's reporting describes structured gang models across multiple kidnappings, including remote coordination and operations linked to Morocco.

This isn't amateur crime, but crew-based work with logistics, division of labor, and cross-border components. Once that infrastructure is in place, it scales.

Fourth, regulatory compliance concentrates sensitive identity data in areas that are vulnerable to leaks. France operates under the AMF's DASP/PSAN framework and is actively messaging the MiCA transition deadline of July 1.

Compliance requirements such as the “travel rule” require identity collection and data sharing.

Reuters quoted French industry voices criticizing these mandates, arguing they increase exposure.
Greater compliance means more identity data across more databases, and each database is a potential breach surface.

Fifth, copycat dynamics and media feedback loops amplify successful tactics. Once a jurisdiction is seen as “working” for criminals, attacker playbooks spread.

More dedicated crews emerge. Victims adjust their behavior by hiring bodyguards, reducing public presence, and compartmentalizing holdings.

However, those adjustments fail to eliminate the threat and instead increase the cost of defense, even as attackers shift their focus to the next vulnerability.

What happens next

The near-term scenario is hardening without solving.

More executives will adopt personal security, reduce visibility, and move assets into compartmentalized custody. Attacks will continue because the expected value remains high and the attack surface continues to grow.

CertiK describes the threat as “structural,” meaning it's embedded in incentives rather than a transient crime wave.

A France-specific inflection could arrive if the Waltio breach and the tax official allegations trigger stricter rules on access logs, identity minimization, and breach liability.

If regulators impose real penalties for data exposure and limit who can query sensitive records, France could reduce its target-discovery rate. That would require treating data handling as a security problem, not just a compliance checkbox.

The crypto irony scenario involves institutional custody making a comeback. If wealthy users and executives conclude that self-custody increases physical risk, they may shift toward professional custody services with insurance and institutional-grade security.

That reduces wrench attack ROI, but it re-centralizes custody and changes the threat model back toward cyber compromise and institutional vulnerabilities.

Chainalysis has flagged rising emphasis on individual targeting and noted links between theft patterns and market conditions, suggesting coercion incentives track price cycles.

The stakes are institutional now

The Binance France incident signals that exchange executives have become high-value targets. Criminals view them as worth the risk.

That belief reshapes the security posture for every crypto company with a public-facing team and a French presence. It also reshapes recruiting: how many qualified professionals will accept roles that come with kidnapping risk?

France's regulators and law enforcement face a decision. They can treat these incidents as isolated crimes and rely on arrests after the fact.

Or they can recognize that data pipelines, compliance mandates, and public registries are creating systematically exploitable vulnerabilities.

The wrench attack wave reflects what happens when crypto holders are made visible, legible, and locatable at scale.

The criminals have already professionalized. The question is whether the defenses will.

The post Binance employee hunted down in botched France home invasion as crypto “wrench attack” spike spreads appeared first on CryptoSlate.

The fiscal mathematics of the United States are drifting toward a threshold that markets can no longer afford to ignore, and a level that, relative to GDP, hasn't transpired since the last world war.

Washington’s latest budgetary outlook suggests the nation is on a trajectory to accumulate nearly $64 trillion in federal debt over the next decade.

The Congressional Budget Office’s (CBO) most recent decade-long outlook indicates a sustained increase in national obligations.

The CBO projects federal deficits will total approximately $1.9 trillion in fiscal year 2026. That gap is expected to widen toward $3.1 trillion by 2036.

These figures would increase public-sector debt from approximately 101% of gross domestic product in 2026 to about 120% by 2036. That level exceeds the peak debt burden seen in the aftermath of World War II.

For global investors, the absolute size of the debt pile is often less alarming than the cost of servicing it. The CBO data indicate that interest costs are on track to become one of the government’s dominant line items. Annual net interest payments are projected to reach around $2.1 trillion by the mid-2030s.

The projection comes as bearish sentiment against the US dollar reaches multi-year highs, creating a volatile macroeconomic backdrop that increasingly aligns with the long-term investment thesis for hard assets such as Bitcoin.

The bond market reality check

While headline numbers grab attention, the Treasury market trades on more immediate mechanics.

The Treasury Department’s “Debt to the Penny” dataset indicates that total US debt outstanding stood at approximately $38.65 trillion as of Feb. 12.

However, the path from this level to the projected $64 trillion depends heavily on how the marginal dollar is funded. Investors are increasingly focused on the compensation required to hold longer-dated Treasuries amid policy uncertainty.

This compensation is visible in the term premium, which is the extra yield investors demand to hold long-term bonds rather than rolling over short-term bills.

The term premium can remain suppressed for extended periods. However, when it rises, it pushes long-end yields higher even without a change in expected short-term policy rates.

This dynamic effectively increases the carrying cost of the national debt and tightens financial conditions across the economy.

This is because a rising term premium frames higher long-term yields not merely as a reflection of inflation expectations but as a risk premium charged for fiscal and regulatory uncertainty.

Notably, recent market commentary suggests this shift is underway. A Reuters survey conducted Feb. 5-11 found that strategists expect long-term Treasury yields to rise later in 2026.

Respondents cited persistent inflation, heavy debt issuance, and investor concerns about policy direction. Strategists also noted that reducing the Federal Reserve's balance sheet becomes significantly more difficult to sustain in a world flooded with Treasury supply.

This presents a critical “macro fork” for the crypto market.

If the bond market demands a persistently higher term premium to absorb Treasury supply, the US government can still fund its operations, but only at the cost of higher borrowing rates for the entire economy.

Such a scenario raises the political incentive to seek relief through alternative measures. These could include lower interest rates, regulatory incentives for captive buyers to purchase debt, or greater tolerance for higher inflation.

These are the classic ingredients of “financial repression,” a playbook that investors have historically associated with the outperformance of hard assets.

Betting against the Dollar

The currency market is simultaneously signaling unease.

The vulnerability of the US dollar is increasingly framed not as a cyclical economic story but as a question of governance and credibility.

Over the past year, the US dollar recorded its worst performance since 2017, falling by more than 10% amid President Donald Trump's policies.

Reuters reported that market strategists broadly expect the softness to persist throughout 2026, citing potential rate cuts and growing concerns about central bank independence.

Moreover, some investors had begun reassessing the dollar's “automatic safe haven” status amid geopolitical and policy volatility.

This positioning confirms the shift in sentiment regarding the US dollar.

Indeed, the Financial Times reported that fund managers are taking their most bearish stance on the dollar in over a decade.

A Bank of America survey cited in the report showed the lowest exposure to the currency since at least 2012. The pessimism was attributed to policy unpredictability and rising geopolitical risk.

However, the shift away from the dollar in global reserves is nuanced.

IMF COFER data shows the dollar’s share of allocated global reserves stood at 56.92% in the third quarter of 2025 (down slightly from 57.08% in the second quarter).

This trajectory represents a slow drift rather than a collapse. It also implies that the dollar can be weak in trading markets while remaining dominant in the plumbing of global finance.

The diversification signal is most evident in the commodities market. The World Gold Council reports that central banks purchased 863 tonnes of gold in 2025.

While this figure is below the exceptional years in which purchases exceeded 1,000 tonnes, it remains well above the average recorded between 2010 and 2021.

This sustained buying reinforces the view that official-sector diversification is an ongoing structural trend.

Bitcoin’s macro pitch, three paths investors are weighing

In the current conversation, Bitcoin’s long-term bull case is often framed as a hedge against debasement and policy discretion.

However, the more precise question is which macro regime the market is entering, because each regime reshapes real rates, liquidity, and confidence differently.

One path is an orderly grind. In this case, deficits remain large, and issuance stays heavy, but inflation remains contained, and policy credibility holds. The dollar can drift lower without breaking the system, and Treasury auctions clear with modest concessions as the term premium rises gradually.

In that world, Bitcoin tends to trade mostly as a liquidity-sensitive risk asset. It can rally on debasement headlines, but it remains tethered to real yields and broader risk appetite.

A second path is a fiscal risk-premium regime. Investors demand materially more compensation to hold the long end. Term premiums rise, yields steepen, and higher financing costs begin to feed back into politics.

The narrative shifts from debt is big to debt is expensive. In that setup, scarce-asset trades have tended to perform better, as investors seek hedges that are not claims on a heavily indebted sovereign.

Gold’s official-sector bid supports that analogy. Bitcoin’s fixed supply becomes more compelling for investors who view fiscal dominance, meaning monetary policy constrained by debt service, as the direction of travel.

A third path is the dollar paradox. It is the twist that complicates any simple dollar-bear story in crypto.

A Bank for International Settlements working paper published in February finds that large inflows into dollar-backed stablecoins can lower 3-month Treasury bill yields by roughly 2.5 to 3.5 basis points for a 2-standard-deviation flow.

The implication is not that stablecoins solve the long-term debt problem. It is that stablecoin growth can create marginal demand for short-dated Treasuries.

That matters because crypto can simultaneously support Bitcoin’s hedge narrative while deepening dollarization through stablecoin rails.

Bitcoin and stablecoins can pull in different directions at the story level while reinforcing the same dollar-based settlement infrastructure at the system level.

What investors are watching next

For now, the $64 trillion projection has compressed years of drift into a single figure that would alarm the globe.

For crypto traders seeking to map these narratives into tradable signals, the tells tend to appear in rates and credibility.

The first set of signals sits in the rates complex. Investors will be watching for evidence that the market is charging a persistent risk premium to absorb long-end supply, and whether auction outcomes begin to reflect stress that persists beyond a single news cycle.

A sustained rise in term premium would indicate that uncertainty, not just inflation expectations, is being priced into long yields.

The second set of signals is credibility. Headlines around central-bank independence function like accelerants because they can turn a gradual debt story into a faster-moving FX story.

If credibility shocks pile up, the debate over debasement and hard assets tends to grow louder, even if the dollar remains dominant in reserves and settlement.

The third set is reserve drift and the gold bid. COFER data showing a slow decline from 57.08% in 2025Q2 to 56.92% in 2025Q3 supports the idea that de-dollarization is incremental. Central bank gold purchases of 863 tonnes in 2025 reinforce that official diversification is ongoing, even without a rupture.

The fourth set is stablecoin flows and bill demand. If stablecoin growth continues to anchor demand for short-dated Treasuries, it can soften the near-term funding narrative even as longer-term debt dynamics worsen.

That can buy time for the system while leaving the long end to carry the heavier burden of credibility and duration risk.

Put together, the setup helps explain why Bitcoin keeps showing up in the macro hedge playbook. It does not require a dollar collapse. It does not require a sudden change in the reserve regime.

It requires something more subtle and, for markets, more tradable, an increase in doubt about the future rules of money, paired with enough liquidity to keep the hedge trade alive

The post US debt to hit WWII-era extremes with $64 trillion owed, but one market price decides whether Bitcoin benefits appeared first on CryptoSlate.

On some Ethereum L2s, bots now burn over half the gas just searching for MEV, and they don’t pay proportionally for it. That’s a scaling and market-fairness problem rooted in market structure.

The privacy conversation in crypto has finally escaped the “anonymous money” framing that dominated the last cycle. In early 2026, the urgency is economic and rooted in immediate financial realities.

The industry faces a structural problem: on-chain transparency generates extractable value at massive scale, and that extraction has grown into a scaling bottleneck rather than remaining a purely philosophical concern.

Flashbots has documented how MEV-related “search spam” can consume more than 50% of gas on major layer 2s while paying a small share of fees. Alchemy, citing EigenPhi data, points to nearly $24 million in MEV profit extracted on Ethereum over just 30 days, from Dec. 8, 2025, to Jan. 6, 2026.

When a hedge fund's $10 million DEX swap is visible in the mempool before it lands, slippage from sandwich attacks can dwarf gas costs.

Privacy is no longer a feature request. It's a market fairness problem.

Reads, writes, proving

The Ethereum Foundation's Privacy and Scaling Explorations team has standardized a three-part framework: private writes, private reads, and private proving.

Private reads relate to hiding transaction intent before execution. Private reads hide which users and apps are querying, such as balances and positions. Private proving is about making zero-knowledge proofs and attestations cheap and portable enough to embed everywhere.

Cais Manai, co-founder and CPO of TEN Protocol, argues the most urgent problem is reads. He stated that the industry has spent years obsessing over hiding who sent what to whom, the ‘write' side of privacy.

However, he noted:

“The real hemorrhage right now is on the read side: the fact that every balance, every position, every liquidation threshold, every strategy is sitting there in plaintext for anyone to inspect. That's what powers MEV. That's what makes institutional DeFi a non-starter.”

Over 112,000 ETH, roughly $400 million at current prices, has been extracted from users by sequencers and MEV bots feeding on the readable state, according to TEN's estimates.

The solution Manai advocates involves encrypting the entire execution environment using Trusted Execution Environments (TEEs). He explained:

“Contract state and logic stay encrypted while in use, not just at rest. Nobody reads what they're not supposed to, because there's nothing exposed to read.”

Tanisha Katara, founder of Katara Consulting Group, sees “writes” as the most costly problem right now.

According to her:

“Read privacy (RPC leakage, query patterns) is a slow-burning surveillance issue. Write privacy (front-running, sandwich attacks on institutional flows) is actively destroying value today. It's hundreds of millions per year being extracted from users because their transaction intent is visible before execution. “

Andy Guzman, who leads the Ethereum Foundation's Privacy and Scaling Explorations team, emphasizes that private reads are not widely understood.

He elaborated further:

“Private Writes is the one that currently takes most attention, it's the ‘first base' and arguably the first thing you have to do. Private Proving is the enabler of the other two, and it has advanced significantly in recent years. Still a lot to do.”

Ethereum private writes as the wedge

Private orderflow is a product.

Flashbots' MEV-Share operates as an order-flow auction in which users and wallets selectively share transaction data to redistribute MEV. By default, 90% of extracted value flows back to users rather than disappearing to bots.

Encrypted mempools represent the next layer. Shutter's research documents a pathway that uses threshold encryption and timed key release, integrated with proposer-builder separation.

Transactions enter the mempool encrypted and are decrypted only after the order is committed, eliminating the public mempool as an attack surface. The design acknowledges practical constraints: latency overhead, reorg edge cases, and coordination challenges across validator sets.

The economic pressure is real enough that major infrastructure providers are building MEV protection into default flows.

Alchemy's MEV overview characterizes the problem as systemic, with documented profit extraction totaling approximately $1 billion annually across major chains.

Silent leak becoming the next Ethereum headline

The Ethereum privacy roadmap now explicitly elevates private reads as a first-class track.

RPC privacy, which hides which addresses query which contracts, is important because query patterns expose strategies. If a bot observes that a specific address repeatedly checks a liquidation threshold, it knows the position is near collapse.

Wallet-side privacy primitives are where this gets practical. Stealth addresses are formally standardized under ERC-5564, enabling recipient privacy by generating unique, unlinkable addresses for each payment.

The specification exists, but broad Ethereum wallet adoption remains hindered by UX challenges, including scanning incoming payments, reconciling balances across ephemeral addresses, and the complexity of key management.

Manai's developer UX argument hits hardest here:

“The real UX bottleneck in 2026 is developer UX, the gap between ‘I want to build a private application' and actually being able to do it without learning an entirely new programming model, a custom language, or a bespoke proving system.”

He highlighted the need for full EVM/SVMs running within TEEs so developers can build encrypted dApps using the same tools, languages, and mental models they already have. No circuits to write, no custom VMs to learn.

Proving is improving fast enough

Zero-knowledge proving costs have collapsed. Ethproofs' 2025 review documents onboarding multiple zkVMs and provers, verifying roughly 200,000 blocks, and seeing latency fall approximately fivefold while costs dropped around fifteenfold over the year.

Proof generation is no longer the primary constraint on privacy deployment.

The Ethereum bottleneck has shifted to coordination and integration. Guzman identifies user experience and cost as the primary barriers for retail users, and regulation and compliance as the primary barriers for institutions.

He said:

“The cheapest transaction you can send on Ethereum is around 21,000 gas, roughly $0.02. A private transfer can easily be 420,000 gas or more. In periods of low activity, it's okay (around $0.40), but high activity could become costly for some use cases.”

Katara frames it as a coordination problem:

“Proof cost was the bottleneck in 2023-24. It's resolving. The coordination problem is the bottleneck: Who decides that shielded sends are on by default in a wallet? Who governs the key server threshold in an encrypted mempool? These are the unsexy mechanism design problems that determine whether privacy actually reaches users.”

Regulation is shaping and directing the Ethereum design space

Privacy builders are designing in the shadow of compliance requirements and legal risk.

The US Treasury delisted Tornado Cash sanctions in 2025, but legal uncertainty didn't vanish. Tornado Cash developer Roman Storm faced a mixed verdict: guilty on an unlicensed money-transmitting business charge, with the jury deadlocked or acquitted on other counts.

On the compliance side, the EU's crypto travel rule regime under Regulation (EU) 2023/1113 took effect on Dec. 30, 2024, requiring the collection and transmission of identities for crypto-asset transfers.

Privacy isn't disappearing, but being productized into forms that can survive regulation: selective disclosure, policy controls, auditability windows.

Permanent opacity scares regulators. Privacy that's auditable on a schedule is something they can work with.

Katara notes the irony:

“Permissioned and enterprise chains may deliver default privacy to institutional users before public chains deliver it to retail.”

What minimum viable privacy looks like in 2026

For the average MetaMask user in 2026, Katara expects one-address-per-application to become more common, optional shielded sends in a few wallets, and early RPC privacy features.

Guzman points to stealth addresses and shielded pools as already practical, with UI improving rapidly:

“I think we are going to see more L2s specializing in payments and private transfers.”

Manai is more pessimistic about defaults on most chains. He stated:

“Honestly? Close to nothing. The average user in 2026 is still broadcasting every swap, every balance check, every approval in plaintext. The minimum viable privacy should be: your balances aren't public, your trade intent isn't visible before execution, and you're not losing value to front-runners.”

Three paths forward

The first scenario is that MEV makes privacy unavoidable.

Wallets and apps continue to integrate private transaction pathways, such as private RPC, MEV-Share-style routing, and per-app addressing. The trigger is sustained MEV extraction plus more institutional capital moving on-chain.

The second scenario is confidential execution goes enterprise-first. TEEs and policy-based encryption gain traction in controlled environments, such as institutions, regulated apps, and private markets, because they prioritize business confidentiality over consumer anonymity.

The third scenario is that regulatory chill pushes privacy to an opt-in-only model. If enforcement focuses broadly on privacy tooling, retail privacy UX stays niche. Teams shift to selective disclosure and “policy privacy” designs, such as Privacy Pools, rather than generalized shielding.

Privacy in 2026 isn't a feature. It's a response to structural problems that became too expensive to ignore.

Ethereum MEV extraction, strategy leakage, and on-chain surveillance create quantifiable losses at an institutional scale. The technology to address those problems exists: encrypted mempools, stealth addresses, confidential execution environments, and zero-knowledge proving with collapsed costs.

The barrier isn't cryptography anymore. It's coordination, developer UX, and the unsexy work of making privacy the default rather than opt-in.

The industry spent the last cycle building privacy as an exception. The next cycle will determine whether privacy becomes infrastructure (boring, invisible, and everywhere) or remains a niche feature for the paranoid and the institutional.

The difference comes down to whether the people building wallets, apps, and protocols decide that leaking everything by default is a bug worth fixing. In 2026, the economists finally suggest it's a bug.

The post Crypto privacy just became an economic crisis as MEV bots siphon millions and most users still leak everything appeared first on CryptoSlate.

The year 2026 has already carved a permanent place in Monero’s history, characterized by a parabolic rally that briefly silenced skeptics, followed by a sharp deleveraging event that tested the network's structural resilience. As of February 17, 2026, Monero (XMR) is navigating a complex landscape where technical "oversold" signals clash with mounting regulatory headwinds from major global jurisdictions.

Monero Price Action: The 2026 Rollercoaster

To understand where Monero is headed, we must analyze the two distinct phases that defined the first seven weeks of the year. The XMR/USD price started 2026 with an aggressive "privacy premium" rally, fueled by institutional interest in non-transparent liquidity.

The Rise: January’s Parabolic Surge

In mid-January 2026, Monero reached a historic milestone, printing a local top near $799.89. This 195% increase from early 2025 lows was driven by:

1. Political Tailwinds: Unexpected support from high-profile US policymakers who reframed privacy as a "constitutional right."
2. Macro Uncertainty: Global economic shifts led investors toward "financial autonomy" assets.
3. Technical Discovery: XMR entered a price discovery phase after clearing multi-year resistance levels.

The Fall: The February Regulatory Squeeze

The descent was as rapid as the ascent. By early February, $XMR had retraced over 57% of its gains. The primary catalysts for this "deleveraging cascade" included:

• Exchange Delistings: Major platforms, including Binance, accelerated the removal of privacy-focused pairs to comply with the EU’s MiCA framework and the US CLARITY Act.
• Profit Taking: After the $800 peak, massive "long" liquidations (totaling nearly $240,000 in a single 24-hour window) accelerated the downward momentum.
• Systemic Pressures: A broader cooling of institutional appetite, evidenced by significant outflows from Bitcoin ETFs, dragged the entire altcoin market lower.

Monero Coin Analysis: Identifying the Floor

The chart for XMR-USD currently shows a battle for survival at key Fibonacci retracement levels.

Currently, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near 33.69, indicating that Monero is approaching oversold territory. While the price remains below its 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), the $300 zone has emerged as a critical "buy the dip" region for long-term holders.

Fundamental Outlook: Privacy vs. Compliance

Despite the price volatility, Monero’s on-chain activity remains remarkably stable. According to recent data from Chainalysis, while exchange liquidity has thinned due to delistings, the use of XMR in decentralized models and non-custodial swaps has reached new heights.

Upcoming Network Upgrades

The Monero community is preparing for several "hardening" upgrades later in 2026:

• FCMP++ (Full-Chain Membership Proofs): Aimed at mathematically increasing the anonymity set.
• Seraphis Implementation: A modernization of the address structure to improve wallet syncing and scalability.

These technological advancements suggest that while the "price kurs" may be under pressure, the network's utility as the gold standard for privacy remains unchallenged.

Monero Price Prediction 2026: What’s Next for XMR?

For the remainder of Q1 and Q2 2026, analysts anticipate a period of consolidation. If Monero can maintain a daily close above the $300 support, a re-test of the $450-$500 range is plausible by the second half of the year. However, a decisive break below $300 could open the doors for a return to the $230 "macro floor."

The "frog" is leaping once more. After weeks of horizontal trading that left many retail investors wondering if the hype had finally evaporated, PEPE delivered a massive 23% price surge over the past seven days. This explosive move was not an isolated event; it occurred in lockstep with Bitcoin’s triumphant return to the $70,000 level, highlighting PEPE’s status as a high-beta asset that amplifies market momentum.

The Real PEPE Recovery

Traders looking for confirmation of a trend reversal have found it in the recent volume spikes. The 23% rally wasn't just a "dead cat bounce"; it was supported by a 283% explosion in trading volume. As Bitcoin stabilizes near $70,000, liquidity is rotating back into high-risk memecoins, with PEPE leading the charge. This price action confirms that the asset remains the primary "Social Index" for the 2026 crypto market.

High-Beta Volatility and BTC Correlation

In the world of cryptocurrency trading, "high-beta" refers to assets that move more aggressively than the market leader.

When Bitcoin rises 5%, PEPE often jumps 15-20%.

Conversely, when Bitcoin dips, memecoins typically face steeper corrections. This relationship is why PEPE is often the first to "moon" during a market recovery, serving as a magnet for speculative capital.

Pepe Coin Price Analysis: Breaking the $0.0000036 Support

The recent surge was sparked by a successful defense of the $0.0000036 support zone. This level has become a fortress for "diamond-hand" holders.

Whale Accumulation and Short Squeezes

According to on-chain data from Santiment, the top 100 PEPE wallets accumulated approximately 23 trillion tokens during the recent consolidation. This institutional-grade buying at the "bottom" created a supply shock. When Bitcoin broke $70k, a massive wave of short positions was liquidated, "squeezing" the price up toward the $0.0000048 resistance level.

Key Price Levels to Watch

Based on the above chart structure:

• Immediate Resistance: $0.0000052. A breakout here could open the doors to $0.0000068.
• Macro Target: Analysts at major exchanges suggest that if the current "Meme Supercycle" continues, $PEPE could target $0.0000146 by late 2026.
• Support Floor: The $0.0000036 level remains the most critical area to hold to avoid a bearish trend continuation.

The 2026 Outlook: Is the Frog "Dead" or Just Resting?

The narrative that "PEPE is dead" has appeared multiple times since its inception. However, the data suggests otherwise. PEPE has transitioned from a simple internet joke into a functional pillar of the emerging Bitcoin Layer-2 (BTCFi) economy.

Why Memecoins Dominate Sentiment

While tokens with "utility" often struggle to explain their value proposition, PEPE's value is simple: attention. In a digital economy, attention is the most valuable currency. As long as PEPE maintains its 1.2 million+ unique holders and high social engagement, it will continue to outperform traditional altcoins during bullish phases.

Conclusion: A Selective Meme Season

The 2026 market is becoming more selective. While many "copycat" memes have faded into obscurity, PEPE’s deep liquidity and massive community give it a "too big to fail" status within its niche. The recent 23% surge is a clear signal that whenever Bitcoin breathes, the frog is ready to jump.

What Is CC Canton Token and Why Is It Rising So Fast?

The CC Canton token has quickly climbed into the Top 20 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, overtaking established names such as $TON, $SUI, $XMR, $SHIB, $LTC, $HBAR, and $XLM. After launching in November 2025, CC has surged toward a $6 billion valuation in just a few months — a remarkable pace for a newly tradable token.

But what exactly is CC, and does it have the fundamentals to push toward the Top 10 next?

What Is the CC Canton Token?

CC is the native token of the Canton Network — a blockchain infrastructure project focused on institutional finance and regulated markets.

Unlike retail-focused smart contract chains, Canton positions itself as:

• A public blockchain with privacy controls
• Built for regulated financial institutions
• Designed for tokenized real-world assets (RWAs)
• Focused on selective disclosure and compliant composability

Its value proposition centers around bringing Wall Street infrastructure on-chain while preserving the privacy and regulatory constraints institutions require.

That narrative has gained serious traction in 2026 as capital rotates toward real-world asset tokenization and institutional blockchain adoption.

How Did CC Enter the Top 20 So Quickly?

CC launched publicly in November 2025. After an initial listing spike and sharp correction, the token formed a base near $0.06 before rallying nearly 3x toward the $0.18–$0.19 area.

With a circulating supply of roughly 37.7 billion tokens, price expansion rapidly pushed its market cap above $6 billion — enough to surpass several legacy altcoins.

The key drivers behind its rapid rise include:

• Strong institutional narrative positioning
• Fully circulating supply at launch
• Limited float relative to valuation
• Capital rotation into RWA and compliance-focused chains

However, trading volume remains relatively modest compared to its market cap, suggesting valuation expansion has not yet been fully stress-tested by heavy liquidity flows.

Can CC Canton Token Make It Into the Top 10?

To enter the Top 10, CC would likely need to surpass assets such as $LINK, $TON, or other multi-billion dollar incumbents.

For that to happen, several conditions must align:

1️⃣ Sustained Narrative Strength

The institutional adoption and tokenized securities theme must continue dominating crypto capital flows.

2️⃣ Visible Institutional Usage

Real transaction growth and confirmed financial partnerships would strengthen valuation justification.

3️⃣ Volume Expansion

A breakout above the current all-time high near $0.195 with rising volume would signal strong market conviction.

4️⃣ Stable Tokenomics

Clear unlock schedules and transparent allocation structure are critical to maintain investor confidence.

Without those elements, CC may consolidate within the Top 20 rather than accelerating further.

Technical Outlook: Breakout or Consolidation?

From a market structure perspective:

• Support zone: $0.14–$0.15
• Major support: $0.12
• Key resistance: $0.18–$0.195 (ATH zone)

A decisive break above the ATH could open momentum toward higher market cap tiers. Failure to expand with volume could result in extended sideways consolidation.

Is CC a New Institutional Infrastructure Play?

Unlike meme-driven rallies, CC’s rise appears more structured. The token’s price action shows:

1. Post-launch distribution
2. Accumulation phase
3. Gradual trend expansion
4. Controlled volatility

That pattern often reflects strategic positioning rather than speculative mania.

If Canton succeeds in becoming a backbone for regulated on-chain finance, its valuation could continue expanding structurally.

If adoption lags, the token may trade more in line with broader altcoin cycles.

Final Verdict: Early Top 10 Contender or Overextended Rally?

The CC Canton token has achieved in months what many projects take years to accomplish — entry into the Top 20.

Whether it breaks into the Top 10 will depend less on hype and more on real institutional usage, liquidity growth, and sustained capital rotation toward regulated blockchain infrastructure.

The coming months will determine whether CC becomes a foundational infrastructure asset — or remains a powerful but narrative-driven rally.

The Current State of Solana (SOL)

As of February 16, 2026, Solana ($SOL) is trading in a tight consolidation range between $78 and $86. After a volatile start to the year, which saw the token decline approximately 31% from its January highs, the market is looking for a catalyst. While the price action has been bearish, the underlying network health suggests a massive disconnect between valuation and utility.

Solana’s ecosystem recently hit a historic milestone, with its Real-World Asset (RWA) sector surpassing $1.66 billion in total tokenized value. Despite this, the SOL price remains under pressure from broader market liquidations and a technical "head and shoulders" pattern that has traders on edge.

Solana Price Analysis: Breaking Down the Chart

The daily chart for SOL/USD reveals a complex battle between bulls and bears. Following the peak in late 2025, the price has formed a series of lower highs, finding temporary solace at the $80 psychological support level.

Key Support and Resistance Levels

• Immediate Support ($75 - $80): This is the "demand zone" where institutional buyers have historically stepped in. A daily close below $75 could open the doors to a deeper correction toward $60.
• Major Resistance ($95 - $100): Reclaiming the $100 mark is essential for a trend reversal. This level aligns with the 50-day EMA, which currently acts as a ceiling for any relief rallies.
• The Bearish Target ($50 - $60): Some technical analysts point to a completed "head and shoulders" breakdown, suggesting that if $80 fails, the next logical stop is the $50 range, last seen in the early stages of the 2024 bull run.

Expert Insight: Solana is currently oversold with an RSI near 28. Historically, such levels have preceded significant bounces, but with negative funding rates persisting for over 16 days, the market is leaning heavily short.

Fundamental Catalysts: The Road to $250

While the chart looks heavy, the fundamental narrative for 2026 is arguably the strongest in Solana's history. Two major upgrades—Alpenglow and Firedancer—are scheduled to finalize their rollouts this year.

1. The Firedancer Upgrade

Firedancer, developed by Jump Crypto, is a new validator client that has successfully processed over 1 million transactions per second (TPS) in test environments. In early 2026, its full mainnet implementation is expected to eliminate network outages and reduce latency to sub-150 milliseconds. This level of performance is critical for attracting high-frequency trading firms and global payment giants like Western Union, which is already testing stablecoin settlements on the chain.

2. The RWA and Institutional Surge

Solana is pivoting from being a "memecoin hub" to an "internet capital market." Institutional players like Morgan Stanley and WisdomTree have expanded their presence on the network, tokenizing everything from U.S. Treasuries to money market funds. This institutional "sticky" capital provides a floor for the token that speculative retail volume cannot.

Solana Price Prediction 2026: Bull vs. Bear Case

Based on current data and projected network growth, here are the potential scenarios for SOL through the remainder of the year:

Conclusion: Is SOL a Buy at $80?

For long-term investors, the current price represents a significant discount relative to the network's growing utility. While short-term volatility could see SOL dip toward the $60 support, the technological leap promised by Firedancer and the maturation of the RWA ecosystem make a strong case for a recovery toward $200 by H2 2026.

The cryptocurrency market has entered a volatile phase in February 2026, characterized by significant price corrections and a shift in investor sentiment. After reaching a spectacular all-time high of approximately $126,198 in October 2025, Bitcoin ($BTC) has faced a challenging retracement, currently trading in a range that has many questioning if a new "crypto winter" is upon us.

As we approach the second half of February, the "Who, What, and Why" of the current market structure becomes critical for traders. The primary drivers include a massive deleveraging event, shifting macroeconomic indicators, and a cooling of the post-ETF hype that dominated the previous year.

Current Market Situation: Orderly Deleveraging or Bear Market?

Early February 2026 saw a sharp drawdown, with Bitcoin falling below the psychological $70,000 mark and even testing levels near $61,000. Unlike the chaotic crashes of the past, analysts at VanEck describe this move as an "orderly deleveraging." Futures open interest has dropped by over 20% in just a few sessions, shedding excess speculative heat without a complete structural failure of the market.

Key Factors Influencing February Performance:

• Institutional Outflows: Data indicates that outflows from Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs have begun to outweigh inflows, signaling that traditional investors are taking profits or rotating into defensive assets like gold.
• Macroeconomic Headwinds: The Federal Reserve has maintained a neutral but restrictive rate stance near 3.75%. With inflation proving sticky around 2.4%, the "higher for longer" narrative is dampening the appeal of risk assets.
• Tax Season Pressures: The introduction of the new IRS Form 1099-DA for the 2026 tax season has added a layer of compliance complexity, potentially leading some US-based investors to liquidate positions to cover tax liabilities.

Bitcoin Price Prediction for Late February 2026

The outlook for the remainder of the month is one of cautious consolidation. Technical structures suggest that Bitcoin is currently trapped in a dominant bearish trendline originating from its 2025 highs.

Technical Support and Resistance Levels

To understand where the Bitcoin price might head by February 28, we must look at the immediate liquidity zones:

Most prediction markets and analysts, currently assign low odds (less than 10%) to Bitcoin reclaiming $100,000 before the end of February. Instead, the consensus points toward a trading range between $64,000 and $75,000 as the market searches for a definitive bottom.

The "Post-ATH" Correction Pattern

It is vital to recognize that the current price action follows a historical precedent. Traditionally, Bitcoin enters a cooling-off period 12 to 18 months after a halving event. Having peaked in October 2025 (roughly 17 months after the 2024 halving), the current 40-50% drawdown is mathematically consistent with previous cycles.

While the "Fear and Greed Index" sits in Extreme Fear (around 8-10 points), seasoned investors often view these levels as a "reset" rather than a terminal decline. The underlying infrastructure—such as the growth of Layer 2 solutions and institutional custody—remains stronger than in 2022.

Conclusion and Strategic Outlook

As we move toward March, the crypto market is in a "wait-and-see" mode. For Bitcoin to regain its bullish momentum, it must first stabilize above the $68,000 mark and reclaim its 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). While a return to all-time highs seems unlikely for the rest of February 2026, the current deleveraging process is healthy for the long-term sustainability of the market. 

Bitcoin miner Bitdeer has overtaken MARA in terms of self-mining hash rate among publicly traded companies, according to JPMorgan analysts.

Shares in publicly traded crypto exchange Gemini are plunging as the firm parts ways with three executives following broader layoffs.

BitMine Immersion Technologies is sitting on a nearly $8 billion unrealized loss, but Tom Lee remains optimistic about Ethereum.

From 2028, the Netherlands will update how tax is calculated on unrealized gains. Crypto critics are in uproar—but the reality is nuanced.

Strategy reported its fourth-largest Bitcoin purchase of the year, a week after Michael Saylor's defense of the company's became a meme.

Legendary trader Peter Brandt has debunked a viral "6-year" Bitcoin bullish theory.

Adam Back rejects "democracy" interpretations of the Bitcoin whitepaper as the BIP-110 debate tests the power of node validation over miner majority rule.

Ethereum treasury firm Bitmine has bought more ETH, setting a new internal high in its holdings.

XRP sees over $117 million worth of its tokens moved within wallets, sparking speculation about what whales could be up to amid the market downtrend.

Ripple USD (RLUSD) tops $1.5 billion milestone in institutional growth surge.

TLDR:

• Jupiter Lend allows users to borrow against natively staked SOL without converting to liquid staking tokens. 
• Over $30 billion in natively staked SOL on Solana can now be used as collateral inside DeFi lending markets. 
• Users can borrow up to 87% of their staked position’s value, with a liquidation threshold set firmly at 88%. 
• Six validators are live at launch, including Jupiter and Helius, with more validators set to join over time.

Native staking as collateral is now available on Jupiter Lend, opening a new lane for Solana DeFi users. Jupiter Exchange has activated a feature allowing holders to borrow against natively staked SOL directly.

No liquid staking tokens are needed at any stage of the process. The update taps into more than $30 billion in staked SOL that previously had no DeFi utility. For long-term SOL stakers, this represents a meaningful shift in how they can use their assets.

Jupiter Lend Bridges Natively Staked SOL Into DeFi Lending

For years, natively staked SOL sat outside the reach of decentralized lending markets. Holders who staked directly with validators had no way to access liquidity without unstaking first.

Jupiter Lend now addresses that gap by detecting staked positions automatically on-chain. Once detected, the position is represented as an nsTOKEN within the protocol.

Jupiter Exchange described the process clearly in a post: “$30B of SOL is natively staked. The largest pool of capital on Solana, earning yield but locked out of DeFi. That changes today.”

The announcement confirmed the feature is live and accessible to users right away. From there, holders can borrow SOL against their staked position without any manual wrapping or conversion.

Staking rewards continue to compound while the collateral remains active on the platform. This means users do not lose yield while borrowing against their position.

The protocol is fully non-custodial, so users keep control of their assets throughout. Everything runs on-chain with no intermediary involved in the process.

The borrowing limit is set at up to 87% of the staked position’s value. The liquidation threshold is placed at 88%, leaving a tight but defined buffer for users.

Each validator on the platform operates through a separate vault. The vault names follow a clear format, such as nsJUPITER for Jupiter and nsHELIUS for Helius.

Six Validators Are Live at Launch With Expansion Plans Ahead

Jupiter Exchange launched the feature with six validators already integrated into the platform. Those validators are Jupiter, Helius, Nansen, Blueshift, Kiln, and Temporal.

Each carries its own dedicated vault while following the same borrowing structure. Users staked with any of these validators can access the feature right away.

As stated in the announcement: “Each has its own vault, but with the same exact flow.” So regardless of which validator a user has staked with, the steps remain the same.

The experience stays consistent across all six supported vaults on Jupiter Lend. Only the validator backing the collateral differs between each nsTOKEN position.

Jupiter Exchange also confirmed that additional validators will be added over time. The plan is to cover a broader range of the Solana validator ecosystem gradually.

As more validators join, more natively staked SOL will enter DeFi lending markets. This phased approach keeps the rollout stable while expanding access steadily.

The launch marks a concrete step toward making natively staked SOL fully liquid for DeFi purposes. Users who previously had no options can now put idle staked capital to work on Jupiter Lend.

The post Jupiter Lend Now Accepts Native Staking as Collateral for SOL Borrowing appeared first on Blockonomi.

TLDR:

• AAVE is trading around $124, sitting above a major support zone between $90 and $110 on the weekly chart.
• A multi-year ascending trendline active since 2021 converges with the 0.618 Fibonacci level at current prices.
• Price is compressing between descending resistance and rising support, signaling a potential breakout is approaching.
• Upside targets range from $190 to $1,000, representing a 10x return from the base of the accumulation zone.
  

AAVE is currently sitting at a critical support zone following an 86% decline from its all-time high. The DeFi token is trading around $124, holding above a major weekly trendline that has remained intact since 2021.

Analysts are now watching whether this level can sustain buying pressure and trigger a larger recovery. Crypto analyst CryptoPatel has outlined a detailed technical case suggesting a potential 10x move from the current accumulation range.

Price Holds Above Key Support as Accumulation Signs Emerge

AAVE is trading above a high-timeframe support zone between $90 and $110. This range has attracted considerable attention from technical analysts tracking the asset’s long-term structure.

The zone aligns with a multi-year ascending trendline, adding weight to its relevance as a demand area.

CryptoPatel flagged the setup on social media, stating that price is showing a “liquidity sweep and reaction from a multi-year ascending trendline that has held since 2021.”

That trendline converges with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, forming a strong area of technical confluence. Together, these factors point to a historically significant support region for the asset.

Beyond the trendline, price action is compressing between a descending resistance level and rising support. This type of compression pattern often builds tension before a directional move. Traders are watching closely to see which side resolves first.

10x Targets in Focus as Breakout Conditions Take Shape

The $74 level stands as the line in the sand for bulls. A weekly close below that price would cancel the bullish scenario outlined in the analysis. As long as AAVE holds above that threshold, the setup remains technically intact.

CryptoPatel mapped out a series of upside targets starting at $190, followed by $345, then $579, and eventually $1,000 or more.

These levels represent roughly a 10x return calculated from the base of the accumulation zone near $90. Each target corresponds to a technical resistance level identified on higher timeframes.

The analyst described the current range as trading between the 0.618 and 0.786 Fibonacci support levels, calling it a “generational accumulation range before massive expansion.”

This Fibonacci band is commonly associated with deep retracements that precede strong recoveries in trending assets.

Whether AAVE confirms this pattern depends on price holding current support and broader market momentum supporting a DeFi recovery.

The post AAVE Drops 86% From ATH; Can This Key Support Zone Trigger a $1,000 Rally? appeared first on Blockonomi.

TLDR:

• Bitcoin open interest peaked at 381,000 BTC across all exchanges during the October 2025 cycle top.

• Binance recorded a 20.8% open interest drop between October 6 and 11, with Bybit and Gate.io falling 37%.

• Post-peak declines have persisted monthly, with Binance down an additional 39.3% since the market top.

• Shrinking derivatives exposure signals active risk reduction, making a sustained Bitcoin rally difficult.

Bitcoin’s price recovery has stalled, and the derivatives market may hold the answer. Open interest data across major exchanges shows a sustained and deepening contraction since the latest cycle peak.

Speculative activity that once fueled Bitcoin’s climb has now reversed course entirely. The data suggests that the collapse in derivatives positioning is playing a central role in keeping Bitcoin’s price under pressure.

A Record Build-Up Followed by a Sharp Collapse

Bitcoin’s derivatives market expanded aggressively throughout this cycle. On Binance, Bitcoin-denominated open interest peaked at 120,000 BTC in October 2025, compared to 94,300 BTC after the November 2021 high. That growth reflected an enormous build-up in speculative exposure heading into the cycle top.

Across all exchanges combined, open interest reached 381,000 BTC at the peak, up from 221,000 BTC in April 2024.

Analyst Darkfost noted on X that “speculation during this cycle reached unprecedented levels, and both novice and professional investors have paid the price.”

The unwind began swiftly after the October sell-off. Between October 6 and October 11 alone, Binance recorded a 20.8% drop in open interest. Bybit and Gate.io saw even steeper declines of 37% each during that same five-day window.

That rapid contraction removed a large volume of leveraged positioning from the market. Without that speculative support, Bitcoin lost a key structural driver that had been pushing prices higher throughout the cycle.

Why the Derivatives Slump Keeps Price Recovery Out of Reach

The contraction has not stopped at that initial sell-off. Since then, declines have continued in nearly every subsequent month across major platforms. Binance has fallen an additional 39.3%, while Bybit is down 33% and BitMEX has dropped 24%.

Darkfost pointed out that the derivatives market “was definitely a primary driver during this cycle, but it has also become a key force behind the decline.” As open interest shrinks, so does the fuel needed to sustain upward price momentum.

Traders are either voluntarily reducing exposure or being forced out through liquidations. Either way, the result is the same; fewer active positions mean less buying pressure and thinner market participation overall.

Under these conditions, any price rally lacks the depth to hold. Without a meaningful recovery in open interest, Bitcoin remains vulnerable to further selling pressure.

Derivatives data continues to serve as one of the clearest indicators of where market sentiment truly stands.

The post Bitcoin’s Derivatives Crash: The Hidden Force Stalling Price Recovery appeared first on Blockonomi.

TLDR:

• Dragonfly Capital closed its fourth fund at $650M, competing directly with Andreessen Horowitz and Paradigm.
• The firm led Ethena’s $6M seed round in 2023; the stablecoin now holds a $6.3B market capitalization.
• Dragonfly’s strategy targets stablecoins, onchain finance, and tokenized assets over native crypto protocols.
• Partner Haseeb Qureshi says speaking openly in a hype-driven space has been the firm’s greatest superpower.
  

Dragonfly Capital has officially closed its fourth fund at $650 million. The crypto-focused venture firm made the announcement even as the broader blockchain investment sector faces serious headwinds.

The firm continues to focus on financial infrastructure, including stablecoins, onchain finance, and tokenized real-world assets.

This latest raise cements Dragonfly’s place among the top crypto venture firms globally competing with Andreessen Horowitz and Paradigm.

Dragonfly Bets on Finance as Crypto’s Next Frontier

The firm’s strategy has shifted noticeably toward Wall Street-style financial products built on blockchain rails. General partner Rob Hadick, who joined in April 2022 from hedge fund GoldenTree, has been central to that repositioning.

He arrived just as the Terra Luna collapse rocked the market and stayed through the FTX implosion shortly after. Recalling that turbulent period, Hadick said, “I was scared about what was happening to the industry, but I was excited about the opportunity we had, because we still had $500 million to deploy.”

One early product of that vision was Ethena, a synthetic dollar project that most investors rejected following the Terra Luna fallout. Dragonfly led Ethena’s $6 million seed round during the bear market of 2023.

Ethena founder Guy Young recalled that most investors told him, “It’s actually offensive that you’re even saying this after what just happened.”

Dragonfly, however, took a different view. Young credited the firm’s ability to “look at it from first principles” as the reason they moved forward.

Today, Ethena’s flagship stablecoin carries a market cap of roughly $6.3 billion. Franklin Templeton and Fidelity’s venture arm joined a subsequent $100 million round, further validating Dragonfly’s early conviction.

The bet stands as one of the clearest examples of the firm’s contrarian approach during a difficult market period.

A broader shift is now visible across the entire crypto venture space. Partner Tom Schmidt noted that fewer funds are chasing native protocol tokens and more are backing assets tied to real-world instruments.

“This is the biggest meta shift I can feel in my entire time in the industry,” Schmidt said. Hadick added, “A lot of crypto funds are now saying they’re fintech funds, which is what I think we do better than anybody.”

Leadership and Long-Term Vision Drive the Firm Forward

Dragonfly’s current leadership includes four partners with distinct, complementary roles. Haseeb Qureshi serves as the firm’s most visible voice, known for his Chopping Block podcast and direct commentary on Crypto Twitter.

He once nearly secured Polymarket’s seed round in 2020 but passed on matching a competing term sheet. Reflecting on it, Qureshi said plainly, “It was obviously a massive miss on our part, but we had the right idea.” The firm eventually invested at the Series B stage.

The firm has also navigated serious internal and external turbulence. A Department of Justice inquiry surfaced in 2025, tied to Dragonfly’s investment in privacy protocol Tornado Cash.

Prosecutors briefly suggested Schmidt could face criminal charges before the DOJ reversed course. Qureshi maintained that “the investment was never ideological,” and the episode ultimately became a point of credibility within the broader crypto community.

Dragonfly restructured significantly after co-founder Alex Pack departed around 2020. Pack himself acknowledged that he and Feng were “very different culturally,” adding that he spent “a few months helping to hire and train my replacements” before the two parted ways.

The firm also relocated its Asia operations from Beijing to Singapore amid China’s sweeping crypto crackdown, though Schmidt confirmed it still maintains a meaningful regional presence.

With $650 million now secured, Dragonfly enters the next cycle as one of the sector’s most established players. “It’s bizarre to see us now become one of the incumbents,” Qureshi said.

He added that the firm’s willingness to speak directly has been a key differentiator: “In a space that is just completely flooded with bullshit and with fakers and self-promoters, I think that has actually been a superpower.”

The firm is now positioned to shape how blockchain technology continues merging with mainstream financial systems.

The post Dragonfly Capital Raises $650M Fourth Fund to Lead Crypto’s Shift Toward Financial Infrastructure appeared first on Blockonomi.

Hong Kong’s Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) has formally added Victory Fintech Company Limited to its list of licensed cryptocurrency trading platforms. This marks the first approval since June 2025, showing the rigorous standards now required to operate in one of the world’s strictest financial hubs.

While legacy assets like Render ($RNDR) and Cosmos ($ATOM) struggle with bearish sentiment and stagnant price action, a new contender is rising. DeepSnitch AI ($DSNT) aligns perfectly with the market’s demand for transparency and security as the next best crypto.

With its presale already raising over $1.63 million, the chance for a 100x rally is high.

Hong Kong’s exclusive club

The addition of Victory Fintech to the SFC’s licensed list is a signal of survival of the fittest. The SFC now lists only 12 entities authorized to operate, a stark contrast to the hundreds of exchanges that once flooded the market.

Since June 2024, operating an unlicensed platform has been a criminal offense, forcing major players like OKX and Bybit to withdraw their applications and exit the region.

This creates a safer environment for institutional capital but raises the bar for retail traders.  As Hong Kong sets the standard for compliance, DeepSnitch AI provides the global infrastructure for verification. Its SnitchScan tool allows users to audit smart contracts and track wallet associations, ensuring that they are not interacting with blacklisted entities.

Finding the next best crypto

DeepSnitch AI ($DSNT): Likely the next best crypto

The project has surged past $1.63 million in its presale, with the token price holding at $0.03985. This capital influx is a vote of confidence in the platform’s ability to solve the industry’s trust deficit.

DeepSnitch AI is likely the next best crypto because it offers an intelligence access that no other project can match. The team has created a closed ecosystem where presale buyers get exclusive access to live AI tools. This allows early investors to spot risks and opportunities before the broader market, effectively giving them insider status.

This utility drives demand, evidenced by the 36 million+ tokens already staked. The setup for DeepSnitch AI mirrors the early days of top utility tokens. A $15,000 investment at the current price secures roughly 369,094 DSNT tokens. As a top choice for the next best crypto, DeepSnitch AI has the potential to increase by 100x and turn this investment into $1.5 million.

Render market performance

Render ($RNDR) is facing a tough reality check. The token is currently underperforming, with technical analysis showing a bad outlook for the short-term. Based on data from mid-February, 21 technical indicators signal bearish signals, compared to only 9 bullish ones.

The sentiment is firmly bearish, and volatility remains very high. While the long-term forecast suggests Render could hit $1.65 by the end of 2026, this growth is average compared to the risks involved.

Render is trading below its 200-day SMA ($2.53), indicating a long-term downtrend. For investors seeking high-growth crypto picks, a 13% gain over a year is insufficient compensation for the volatility.

Cosmos price prediction

Cosmos ($ATOM) is struggling to find its footing in the current cycle. The Fear & Greed Index is at a terrifying 12 as of February 16th, which indicates Extreme Fear, and the sentiment remains neutral to bearish.

More alarmingly, long-term models predict that Cosmos could actually lose value by 2030, dropping to $1.06, a 53% decline from current levels. Despite a slight projected gain of 5% by the end of 2026, Cosmos is failing to offer massive profit potential. Hence, smart money is rotating out of these declining legacy chains and into emerging blockchain projects like DeepSnitch AI.

Final thoughts

Hong Kong is cleaning up the exchange market, and DeepSnitch AI is cleaning up the data market. One is a regulatory necessity, while the other is a profitable opportunity. DeepSnitch AI is likely the investment that will define your 2026 performance and could be the next best crypto to buy now. Use the DSNTVIP50 code to get an extra 50% bonus when you join the presale.

Visit the official DeepSnitch AI website, join Telegram, and follow on X for more updates.

FAQs

What is the next best crypto to buy now?

DeepSnitch AI ($DSNT) is likely the next best crypto to buy now due to its fast presale funding and high utility in a regulated market.

How does the Hong Kong SFC license affect the market?

The SFC licensing of Victory Fintech signals a maturing, stricter market. This benefits the next top cryptocurrency contenders like DeepSnitch AI, which provide the verification and compliance tools necessary for this new environment.

What are the best high-growth crypto picks for 2026?

While legacy coins struggle, DeepSnitch AI tops the list of high-growth crypto picks for 2026, offering potential exponential returns through its presale structure and AI utility.

Is Cosmos ($ATOM) a good long-term hold?

Cosmos is a risky long-term hold, with forecasts predicting a 53% price drop by 2030. Investors are shifting focus to emerging blockchain projects with better growth trajectories.

The post Next Best Crypto 2026: Hong Kong SFC Licenses Victory Fintech, but DeepSnitch AI Is Likely the Next Best Crypto to Define Your Portfolio appeared first on Blockonomi.

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin said that users do not need to agree with his views on applications, trust assumptions, politics, decentralized finance, decentralized social platforms, privacy-preserving payments, artificial intelligence, or even cultural preferences in order to use Ethereum.

He believes that disagreement with him on any one issue does not require agreement or disagreement on any other.

“Corposlop” Isn’t Censorship

In a lengthy post on X, Buterin stated that he does not claim to represent the entire Ethereum ecosystem. He described Ethereum as a decentralized protocol built around permissionlessness and censorship resistance, which allows anyone to use the network in whatever way they choose without regard for his opinions, the views of the Ethereum Foundation, or those of Ethereum client developers.

He said that labeling applications he dislikes as “corposlop” is not censorship. According to Buterin, free speech means individuals cannot prevent others from operating, but remain free to criticize, just as they may be criticized in return.

Buterin said such criticism is necessary and rejected the concept of “pretend neutrality,” in which individuals present themselves as equally open to all perspectives while avoiding clearly stated positions. He wrote that neutrality should apply to protocols, such as HTTP, Bitcoin, and Ethereum, and within limited scope to certain institutions, but not to individuals, who should instead clearly state their principles, including by identifying and criticizing things they believe are incompatible with those principles, and working with others who share aligned goals to build a metaverse where those principles are treated as a baseline.

He asserted that principles cannot be confined solely to protocol design, while arguing that any principle naturally leads to conclusions not only about how a protocol should be built but also about what should be built on top of it, and that such principles inevitably extend beyond technology into broader social questions, which he said should not be avoided.

Hollow Uses of “Freedom” in Tech

Buterin added that valuing concepts such as freedom while treating them as relevant only to technical choices and disconnected from other aspects of life is not pragmatic but is hollow. He further stated that a decentralized protocol must not be viewed as belonging to only one metaverse and that the boundaries of a metaverse are inherently fuzzy, which makes it common for people to align on some axes while disagreeing on others.

The latest comments from the Ethereum co-founder came a month after he backed the view held by Bitcoin maximalists that concerns around digital sovereignty were well-founded. Buterin had then argued that today’s internet has pivoted toward corporate-controlled systems that erode user power and described sovereignty as protecting privacy, attention, and autonomy from profit-driven platforms, not just resisting governments.

The post Ethereum Is Neutral, People Aren’t: Vitalik Buterin Draws a Clear Line appeared first on CryptoPotato.

Bitcoin has remained rangebound between $60,000 and $70,000, as choppy trading continued to reflect fears of a further downside move. Fresh data highlights risk building near Short-Term Holder Realized Price bands.

These areas have historically witnessed the start of accumulation and emerging opportunities for global market participants.

High-Risk, High-Opportunity Zone

According to Alphractal, Bitcoin is currently trading within a tight range defined by the Short-Term Holder Realized Price, and its price action is trapped between key support and resistance levels. In recent weeks, BTC has closely respected the -1σ and -1.5σ deviation bands.

Previous instances reveal that when the crypto asset breaks below the lower blue deviation band, the market typically sees one of two outcomes. Either the formation of a local bottom or a deeper capitulation phase, followed by accumulation. These deviation bands have consistently acted as natural support and resistance across multiple market cycles. To top that, the -1.5σ level has repeatedly represented periods of maximum stress, where selling pressure from short-term holders intensifies, and longer-term participants begin accumulating.

Against this backdrop of high short-term holder stress, Alphractal founder Joao Wedson pointed to a longer-term metric that may indicate the market is not yet at a historical turning point. The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric for long-term holders, which tracks whether the most resilient investors are sitting on unrealized gains or losses, currently stands at 0.36, which means that long-term holders remain in profit despite recent volatility.

Upon looking at past cycles, Wedson found that the clearest late bear-market signal tends to emerge only when this metric turns negative, a condition associated with extreme pessimism and seller exhaustion. Such phases have marked the end of bear markets, rather than the start of a new bull cycle.

Miners Reduce Exchange Exposure

As Bitcoin trades near crucial stress levels, further on-chain data shows miners adjusting their positioning amid ongoing market pressure. Data shared by CryptoQuant depicts a significant change in miner behavior as more than 36,000 Bitcoin were withdrawn from exchanges since the beginning of February.

The pace of withdrawals has accelerated compared to previous months, which points to changes in holding strategies or liquidity management. Of this total, over 12,000 BTC were withdrawn from Binance, while more than 24,000 BTC were spread across other exchanges, indicating that it’s not an isolated activity. Such movements are typically associated with transfers to long-term storage, as miners move assets off exchanges into cold wallets, and reduce immediate sell-side supply.

Daily withdrawals peaked above 6,000 BTC, the highest level since November, and significantly exceeded January levels. This means that miners may be repositioning against the backdrop of the current market uncertainty.

The post Bitcoin Stalls at a Critical Stress Zone as On-Chain Data Warns the Bottom May Not Be In Yet appeared first on CryptoPotato.

The prices of many precious metals, including gold, have declined recently, with some analysts viewing this trend as bullish for Bitcoin (BTC).

Other factors, such as recent whale accumulation, reinforce the theory that the primary cryptocurrency could be ready to take off soon.

Gold Leads, BTC Follows

The yellow metal experienced a major pump at the start of the year, reaching a new historical peak of around $5,600 in late January. Since then, though, it has declined by roughly 11%, and today (February 17) the price dipped once again below the psychological level of $5,000.

According to some industry participants, there is an interesting correlation between the performance of gold and that of BTC. Earlier this month, X user Merlijn The Trader noted that in recent years, pullbacks in the precious metal have often been followed by an upswing in the cryptocurrency.

“Gold always leads. Bitcoin follows. When gold cools, profits rotate. That’s when capital flows from gold into BTC,” he argued.

Ash Crypto spotted the same parallel. The X user revisited mid-2020, a period when gold went through a sharp correction, and shortly after, the leading digital asset kicked off a bull run.

Other market observers who believe that liquidity rotates into BTC after the precious metal loses momentum include Crypto Fergani and Gargoyle.

The latter presented a pattern in which the cryptocurrency tends to mirror gold’s movements, albeit with its own timing. In their view, both assets pass through three stages: base building, accumulation, and pump. According to the chart, gold has completed these phases, whereas BTC has yet to enter the last one.

More Bullish Factors

Recent actions by large investors, known as whales, support an optimistic outlook for BTC, whose price has declined by almost 30% over the past month. As CryptoPotato recently reported, these market participants remain unfazed by the asset’s negative performance and continue to increase their exposure.

Whales are known as experienced players who may have insider information about forthcoming events. For that reason, some believe that their selling or buying efforts are neither random nor irrational.

Certain indicators and price formations are also worth observing. Bitcoin’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV), for instance, has been steadily declining recently and currently stands at approximately 1.25. It compares the current value of all BTC to the price at which people originally paid to acquire their holdings. According to CryptoQuant, ratios below 1 indicate bottoms, while anything above 3.7 signals that the top is in.

Meanwhile, the popular analyst Ali Martinez claimed that the asset might have formed an “Adan & Eve” pattern on its price chart, in which a break above $71,500 could fuel a jump to as high as $79,000.

The post Gold Loses Momentum: Why This Could be Good News for Bitcoin (BTC)? appeared first on CryptoPotato.

A year after Bubblemaps first detailed the on-chain mechanics behind the LIBRA meme coin collapse, the blockchain analytics firm has released a new update tracking the renewed trading activity of the project creator Hayden Davis.

This time, it has highlighted significant trading losses rather than insider gains.

From Insider Wins to Meme Coin Losses

According to Bubblemaps’ latest findings, Davis has resumed on-chain activity after a period of wallet inactivity, but is now down roughly $3 million after trading multiple Solana-based meme coins, such as PUMP, TROVE, and PENGUIN.

The update stated that Davis had largely disappeared from on-chain trading following Bubblemaps’ August 2025 investigation, which showed he had made millions by sniping the hip-hop star Kanye West’s YZY token shortly after launch. After those profits, the wallets linked to him went dormant.

However, Bubblemaps reports that new wallets within the same cluster have become active again this year. In fact, over the past 30 days, the firm identified several large transfers into a deposit address linked to Davis, labeled CPGZ1i, which ultimately led to six active wallets under the same cluster.

Transaction analysis further indicated that Davis was trading as recently as five days ago and focused primarily on trending Solana meme coins. Unlike previous episodes, the majority of these trades were unprofitable. Bubblemaps estimated losses of approximately $2.5 million on PUMP, $100,000 on PENGUIN, $29,000 on KABUTO, and smaller losses on tokens such as LOUD and BAGWORK.

LIBRA Fallout Didn’t End It

The findings show Davis did not exit the market following the LIBRA collapse, which had previously been linked to over $100 million in insider profits, according to Bubblemaps’ report published exactly a year earlier. That earlier investigation mapped a network of wallets connected to LIBRA and MELANIA token launches, and demonstrated coordinated sniping activity, cross-chain fund transfers, and quick cash-outs tied to addresses associated with Davis and related entities.

On Monday’s update, Bubblemaps observed that instead of disappearing, Davis’ financial position evolved in other ways. For instance, a judge unfroze $57 million of his assets, he continued to generate profits through opportunistic trades such as YZY, and he received a sizable MET airdrop. The latest data now shows Davis engaging in routine on-chain trading activity again.

The post Hayden Davis Resurfaces After LIBRA Crash, But His Latest Trades Are Deep in the Red appeared first on CryptoPotato.

The meme coin pippin (PIPPIN) is deep in red territory today (February 17) after posting substantial gains over the past few weeks.

The question now is whether this will be a temporary correction or the beginning of a major collapse.

What Comes Next?

The asset’s price has retraced by nearly 20% on a daily scale and now trades at around $0.59 (per CoinGecko’s data). PIPPIN’s market capitalization has tumbled below $600 million, putting it at risk of losing its prestigious spot among the 100 largest cryptocurrencies.

Several analysts have recently warned that the meme coin could be a high-stakes gamble, advising traders to stay away from it. Earlier this week, X user Ted said he doesn’t know a single person who holds PIPPIN and wondered what might have driven the rally.

He thinks the whole thing is “a CEX cabal play,” similar to Mantra (OM). In crypto slang, “cabal” refers to a small, coordinated group of insiders who are believed to manipulate a token’s price with their actions. Recall that just a year ago, OM was worth almost $9, whereas its market cap briefly exceeded $8 billion. Since then, the asset has crashed by staggering 99%.

Crypto Rug Muncher shared a similar thesis. The X user argued that the only people still active in the PIPPIN ecosystem are “the cabal members who crimed it to $700 million MC in the first place.”

“This isn’t a project holding the active interest of the space; it’s organized manipulation designed to bait in naive retail for exit liquidity. The project is a hollow, abandoned shell with no fundamentals, and as soon as the insiders manipulating this get bored, it’s headed straight back to shitcoin hell where it belongs,” they added.

Crypto GVR and ALTSTEIN TRADE also gave their two cents. The former spotted the price reversal that occurred in the past hours to forecast that a major collapse to $0.10 may be coming next. The latter argued that PIPPIN’s “top is in,” predicting that all the gains will be lost and that the valuation will tumble below $0.10.

Something for the Bulls

Despite the grim forecasts from the aforementioned analysts, the meme coin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests a short-term rebound could be on the horizon.

The technical analysis tool tracks the speed and magnitude of recent price changes and helps traders spot potential turning points. It runs on a scale from 0 to 100, and ratios below 30 indicate that PIPPIN is oversold and might be on the verge of a resurgence. On the contrary, readings above 70 are considered precursors of a correction. Currently, the RSI stands just north of the bullish zone.

The post Pippin (PIPPIN) Dips 20% Daily: Brutal Collapse on the Way? appeared first on CryptoPotato.