OpenAI's strategic hiring from SpaceX-linked firms signals a focused push to strengthen enterprise sales and expand cybersecurity market reach.

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The proposed bill could reshape AI industry norms, emphasizing safety and transparency, while potentially creating a new market for evaluators.

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OpenAI's strategic hire signals a focus on bolstering its cybersecurity market position, potentially enhancing its growth and competitive edge.

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The convergence of AI market volatility and rising oil prices underscores the fragility of tech-driven growth amid economic uncertainties.

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SpaceX's IPO lead highlights shifting market dynamics, emphasizing the volatility and influence of investor sentiment on tech valuations.

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Bitcoin Magazine

Poetic Justice: Scammer Lost $5M in Bitcoin After Being Targeted by Ledger Thieves

Call it poetic justice: one of the biggest victims of last week’s Ledger theft happened to be a scammer themself, according to blockchain analysts, and lost nearly $5 million in bitcoin. 

In a post Thursday, Chainalysis wrote that a crook lost 60 bitcoins worth about $4.8 million they’d stolen via a so-called task scam. 

According to Chainalysis, the address was linked with a con where people were paid to fake sales and reviews of real items. They were told to add their own money in order to get paid — and then stolen from. 

But the mastermind behind the task scam moved the stolen money to Ledger addresses which were then targeted by different scammers last week.

“On Sep 22, the person behind the scam moved the proceeds into three separate Ledger addresses,” Chainalysis said. “On Oct 9, thieves emptied all three. One transfer each, into the same wallet. The wallet is reported as stolen funds.”

Paris-based Ledger last week said it had started an investigation after customers in South East Asia reported they’d lost funds after buying from Malaysia-based reseller, CryptoBilis. 

Ledger has since said that the scam was a massive organized crime operation where a group installed implants into devices and put them back on the market. The implants could read users’ seed phrases so criminals could then drain wallets. 

Calling it one the most “sophisticated attacks” the digital asset industry has experienced, Ledger is yet to reveal how much money has been lost — but blockchain investigator Specter said $86 million had been drained. 

And the task scam conman, according to Chainalysis, was one of the victims.

Ledger has said that it is working with law enforcement to “follow the funds and dismantle the attackers’ infrastructure” and has made sure no other vendors have been targeted by scammers. 

CryptoBilis has stopped selling Ledger products, the company said. 

Criminals have targeted bitcoin hardware sellers this year, with a huge attack taking place in July on the popular Coldcard products. 

Crooks were able to steal close to $120 million in bitcoin from Coldcard users because the devices had a firmware bug which led to faulty seed generation, allowing hackers to guess investor seedphrases. 

This post Poetic Justice: Scammer Lost $5M in Bitcoin After Being Targeted by Ledger Thieves first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Mathew Di Salvo.

Bitcoin Magazine

BFFS26 Denver: Joseph Kelly on Bitcoin Custody and Credit; Alan Lane on Banking Lessons

The Bitcoin for Financial Services Summit (BFFS26) returns to Denver October 20–22, 2026, bringing together CPAs, wealth advisors, attorneys, lenders, and finance leaders who are building Bitcoin into their practices. Now in its second year, the summit has grown to more than 30 sessions across two full program days, with a speaker lineup drawn from the firms defining Bitcoin custody, credit, and advisory.

Headlining the program are Joseph Kelly, CEO and co-founder of Unchained, who opens the summit with a keynote on custody, credit, and trust at scale; Alan Lane, former CEO of Silvergate Bank, on lessons for Bitcoin and banking; Patrick Lowry, CEO of Samara Asset Group, on holding Bitcoin as a public-company treasury reserve; and Colin Crossman, Wyoming’s Deputy Secretary of State, on the regulatory outlook for banks, exchanges, and advisors. Additional speakers include Kate Goldman of Anchorage Digital, Sam Baker of River, Eric Yakes of Epoch Ventures, Daniel Hillery of UTXO Management, Moish Peltz of Falcon Rappaport & Berkman, and CJ Konstantinos of Peoples Reserve.

Sessions focus on practical application: bringing Bitcoin into wealth planning and family offices, Bitcoin-backed lending and mortgages, treasury accounting and valuation, retirement and income planning, charitable giving strategies, mining as an asset class, and fiduciary duty when clients hold Bitcoin. Dedicated workshops will offer continuing education credit for financial advisors and CPAs.

“Last year proved that financial professionals want more than a Bitcoin primer. They want to know how to serve clients who already own it,” said Jordan Guess, CPA, co-host of the summit in a press release shared with Bitcoin Magazine. “This year’s program is built around the questions advisors and accountants are actually getting from clients, answered by the people building the infrastructure.”

The summit opens Tuesday, October 20, with the Better Money Invitational golf tournament at City Park Golf Course, hosted with Bitcoin Sports Network, followed by a welcome party at The Space sponsored by Falcon Rappaport & Berkman. Evening programming includes wine and whiskey tastings, and Thursday begins with an optional sunrise hike in the Rocky Mountains.

BFFS26 is co-hosted by Jordan Guess and Wyatt O’Rourke of BFFS Media, producers of the Bitcoin for Financial Services podcast. Sponsors include Unchained, Anchorage Digital, UTXO Management, River, SOUND HSA, SustainHash, and Stormrake.

Registration is open now at https://www.bffs.media/summit.

Media contact: Wyatt O’Rourke, wyatt@bffs.media

This post BFFS26 Denver: Joseph Kelly on Bitcoin Custody and Credit; Alan Lane on Banking Lessons first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Juan Galt.

Bitcoin Magazine

Sazmining Now Sells Jack Dorsey’s Proto Immersion Hashboards 

Bitcoin mining just got a lower barrier to entry. 

Sazmining announced Thursday that it is now selling Proto’s immersion hashboards directly to individual and institutional buyers through its mining-as-a-service platform. Previously, the hardware was mostly in the hands of large-scale operators.

Each hashboard delivers roughly 200 TH at around 15 J/TH, and buyers own them outright while Sazmining handles deployment, monitoring and maintenance at a US facility. Mining rewards go straight to the owner’s wallet.

The move follows a multi-megawatt supply deal between Sazmining and Proto — the bitcoin mining arm of Jack Dorsey’s Block (NYSE: XYZ) — which both companies expect to expand as demand grows.

“Because of our aligned-incentive model, Sazmining only earns when we produce bitcoin for our clients,” said Kent Halliburton, CEO and co-founder of Sazmining. 

He also pitched mining as a form of bitcoin acquisition diversification: rather than paying the market price on the day of purchase, a miner’s costs are spread across the machine’s working life.

Wyoming-based Sazmining, founded in 2018, operates renewable-powered facilities across the US, Paraguay, and Norway. It says its fleet runs more than 20 percentage points ahead of the Bitcoin network’s carbon-free share.

Proto is Jack Dorsey’s Block’s bitcoin mining play. The Twitter founder has spent years arguing bitcoin is the foundation of “a more open financial system,” funding everything from Cash App’s buy-and-send rails to the Bitkey self-custody wallet, and he framed mining as the obvious missing piece back in 2021: “Bitcoin mining should be as easy as plugging a rig into a power source.” 

Block formally announced it was building an open bitcoin mining system in January 2022, with the stated aim of making mining “more distributed and efficient.”

This post Sazmining Now Sells Jack Dorsey’s Proto Immersion Hashboards  first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Mathew Di Salvo.

Bitcoin Magazine

Hot Inflation Data Puts Bitcoin Under Pressure, but ‘Difficult’ Isn’t ‘Bearish’: CoinShares

Bitcoin’s price has dropped this week as new inflation data has come in hot. 

But while the largest cryptocurrency’s near-term setup is difficult, it’s not “fundamentally bearish,” according to European asset manager CoinShares’ Head of Research, James Butterfill. 

In a report Friday, the analyst said that bitcoin’s near-term challenge stems from a macro environment that’s caught in an awkward middle ground: inflation is too elevated for the Fed to ease up, while the economy is too resilient to force a policy pivot. 

“Bitcoin and the broader digital asset market have moved lower on the resulting hawkish repricing, a reminder of how sensitive Bitcoin remains to monetary policy over short horizons,” he wrote. 

Bitcoin’s price recently stood at $81,473, down 2% over a seven-day period. 

The price of the leading cryptocurrency dropped Wednesday after data showed that U.S. consumer prices shot up more than expected in September. 

Then, on Thursday, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics said that U.S. producer prices rose in September at the fastest pace in more than four years. 

This has weighed on bitcoin’s price because higher inflation means the Federal Reserve may hike interest rates. Higher borrowing costs can restrict the liquidity the digital coin needs to rally. 

The Federal Reserve hiked rates in September and will meet at the end of this month. 

But Butterfill added that investors should be patient and advised investors to instead think in the long-term and not react to any single weekly data point. 

“For investors, that argues for reading the coming weeks as a data-driven range rather than a trend, and for sizing digital asset exposure against a strategic allocation rather than against this week’s print,” he wrote. 

Bitcoin spent the first half of 2026 in a bear market but had its best quarter in years after surging in August and September. Analysts have now said the leading cryptocurrency is now back in a bull market after trading above its 365-day moving average. 

This post Hot Inflation Data Puts Bitcoin Under Pressure, but ‘Difficult’ Isn’t ‘Bearish’: CoinShares first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Mathew Di Salvo.

Bitcoin Magazine

Deutsche Bank To Debut Bitcoin Custody Within Weeks: Report

German multinational Deutsche Bank is just weeks away from its crypto custody service, according to reports. 

The lender — which is Germany’s biggest — also plans to ​expand the custody platform into Asia next year​, according to a Friday Reuters report, which quoted its corporate banking chief. 

Top banks worldwide are debuting or planning to debut crypto custody services, with BNY Mellon, State Street, Standard Chartered, U.S. Bank, and Citigroup all committing to direct crypto custody over the past 18 months.

Deutsche Bank first officially announced plans to debut a bitcoin custody service for European corporate and institutional clients in September, with the German multinational at the time saying service was subject to the completion of the applicable regulatory timeline.

Friday’s report added that the service will support custody of ​major ⁠cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin before moving to services that help clients move money into and out of ⁠stablecoins.

Gerald Podobnik, co-head of the corporate ⁠bank, was quoted by Reuters saying that the financial system will need to “offer tokenized or blockchain solutions.” 

A number of top banks have started using the technology that powers bitcoin, the blockchain, for their own products in recent years. 

Stablecoins and tokenization in particular have become a hot topic as traditional financial firms aim to accelerate certain services. 

Crypto custody is often a starting point for banks moving into the digital asset space. BNY Mellon in 2022 became the first major U.S. bank to offer digital asset custody services.  

Banks like Citi and Standard Chartered have this year debuted or announced plans for bitcoin custody around the world. 

This post Deutsche Bank To Debut Bitcoin Custody Within Weeks: Report first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Mathew Di Salvo.

The bank says fintechs can access dollar and RLUSD payments through one API, with availability limited to some US states.

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Thirty enacted withdrawals have used 457.4 million ADA of the 500 million allowance, which incoming funds and refunds do not replenish.

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Stablecoin issuer Circle spent 93% of its first-half revenue on distribution, operations, and investment as USDC processed more than $36 trillion in transactions. The stablecoin issuer generated about $1.4 billion in revenue in the first six months of 2026, but $819 million went to distribution partners and transaction costs, while another $473 million covered operating…

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The October 15 report update describes an internal GPT-5.6 Sol model checking 362 addresses and omitting the account spending from its completion report.

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Bitquery’s updated v3 sample shows small positions losing their edge after gas, while v4’s activity data offers no matched return comparison.

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Coinbase published a position paper on the future of Bitcoin signatures on October 13, 2026. Its central claim is that the move to schemes a quantum computer cannot break has to begin before such a machine exists. Bitcoin is untouched by it at around $81,600 (CoinGecko, October 16). The paper names neither a deadline nor an activation mechanism, and that is precisely its message: the debate is starting, the implementation is not.

Coinbase sets out a position paper on post-quantum migration

The document carries more weight than the usual industry comment, because Coinbase custodies around five percent of all existing Bitcoin according to consistent reports, mostly for banks, asset managers and hedge funds. A firm holding that much of other people's money does not carry migration risk in theory.

The company's reasoning is set down verbatim in the paper: "Bitcoin consensus changes and ecosystem migrations can take years, so it is important that we begin this work now." Elsewhere it states that preparation should start "well ahead of any CRQC". CRQC stands for cryptographically relevant quantum computer, meaning a machine actually strong enough to break today's signatures. No such machine exists so far; the most capable known devices work with fewer than 1,000 qubits.

For the timing, the paper cites an estimate by Google researchers under which a CRQC could emerge around 2029. That number is someone else's forecast, not a commitment by Coinbase, and the expert debate rates it differently.

BIP-360 separates the output type from the signature

Technically the paper rests on one idea that is the real point of the proposal: the container of a Bitcoin output and the signature scheme used to spend it later should be separated from each other.

Pay-to-Merkle-Root as an interchangeable container

Under the name Pay-to-Merkle-Root, or P2MR, BIP-360 describes an output type that is not tied to one particular signature scheme. A Merkle root is the condensed root of a hash tree, under which several possible spending conditions can be hidden without all of them being disclosed. Its advantage during migration is that a new, quantum-safe scheme can be added later without changing the output format again.

P2TRv2 as a second, less mature route

Alongside it the paper names P2TRv2, a second version of Taproot pursuing the same separation. Coinbase publicly rates it as less advanced than BIP-360. Both are drafts so far. BIP-360 has the status of a proposal, P2TRv2 has not been adopted, and no Bitcoin upgrade covering these points has been agreed.

The 1-of-2 wallet avoids a hard cut-off date

For the early phase of the switch, Coinbase proposes a construction the paper calls 1-of-2. A balance can be spent either with the classic key or with an additional, quantum-safe key. Both routes are valid at the same time.

The practical benefit is a network that does not have to flip on a single date. Nor does it create outputs movable only under the old scheme, which would then be stranded when that scheme is switched off. Anyone who has carried a wallet through a format change knows the difference between a transition and a cut.

Stateful schemes such as XMSS and LMS carry a forgery risk of their own

On the choice of the future scheme, Coinbase keeps its distance. Stateful signature schemes such as XMSS and LMS count as small and fast, but they have to remember which part of the key material has already been used. Manage that state wrongly and use a part a second time, and forging a signature becomes immediately possible. Coinbase therefore demands that such schemes ship only together with a stateless fallback.

The paper expressly avoids settling on a particular algorithm. It names no activation mechanism either. Readers expecting a finished upgrade find a description of the problem with guard rails.

Exposed keys sit in P2PK and in already-spent addresses

The part that matters most to holders concerns which balances would be vulnerable at all. The public key of an address is not always visible. With modern address formats the blockchain initially holds only a hash of it, and the key itself becomes public only with the first spend.

How to recognise an exposed address

The paper lists the exposed set along that logic: very old P2PK outputs, where the public key stands in the clear from the start, plus P2PKH and Taproot outputs that have already been spent from, and finally deposits arriving during an ongoing migration. The rule of thumb is therefore this: an address you have already sent Bitcoin from has given up its public key. An address that has only received has not.

How to go through your own holdings on that basis is set out in a separate cryptoticker.io piece on the quantum risk of individual Bitcoin addresses. The size of the affected stock is given differently: Coinbase's own advisory board arrived at around 6.9 million Bitcoin with potentially exposed key material in April 2026, while older analyses name about 6.7 million. Both figures describe an upper bound of what is theoretically exposed, not damage done.

The timeframe stays open and the estimates diverge

Figures on how long the rebuild takes differ, and the paper contributes to that by setting no deadline. Part of the coverage reports an estimate of up to seven years for replacing the signature scheme. Other reports speak generally of several years and note explicitly that Coinbase deliberately fixes no schedule. What holds is therefore only the span from several years up to an estimate of seven, not a single number.

That is less unsatisfying than it sounds. A consensus change in Bitcoin needs agreement among developers, miners, exchanges and wallet providers. A date set by a single company would carry no binding force.

A transfer to a fresh address leaves the German holding period intact

The obvious reaction for many holders would be to move balances to new addresses as a precaution. In tax terms that is uncritical in Germany: in its circular on the income tax treatment of crypto assets, the federal finance ministry does not treat a transfer between your own wallets as a disposal. The one-year holding period under section 23 of the Income Tax Act therefore keeps running when you send Bitcoin from one address of your own to another.

Two points still matter. First, your records have to be right, because a portfolio tracker or a tax tool might otherwise book such a transfer as a sale and a repurchase. Second, every transfer costs a network fee. Against a horizon of years, panic is the worse adviser. How the legislator will handle the holding period is open in the ongoing reform debate.

Anyone thinking about custody anyway will find the models, their setup and their running costs in our hardware wallet comparison. Only one property matters for this article: the device has to be able to add signature schemes by firmware update.

Holding on an exchange hands the migration to the provider

If your Bitcoin sits with an exchange or a broker, what you own is a claim against the company, not a private key. Moving to quantum-safe signatures would then be the custodian's job. Among other things, Coinbase describes multi-party computation in the paper as a building block of its own infrastructure and states: "When implemented effectively, MPC can provide strong protection against key theft." Under MPC a key is never assembled in full in one place but split across several parties.

That creates a division of labour worth knowing. In custody with a provider you carry the counterparty risk but not the technical migration. In self-custody it is the other way round. Both are defensible; the decision should simply be a deliberate one rather than the result of inertia.

Dormant Bitcoin and lost keys remain the open flank

The paper deliberately leaves the thorniest point outside the bracket: a balance that never moves cannot be migrated either. That covers the early holdings from the network's first years and every coin whose keys are lost. Coinbase treats this question as a separate problem and not as a precondition for the rest of the rebuild.

That is a political choice, not a purely technical one. Whether such outputs are eventually frozen, given a deadline or left untouched touches on questions of ownership that the Bitcoin world has argued over for years. Coinbase states its expectation that Bitcoin will "continue to be the most trusted cryptocurrency in a post-quantum world". That is no answer on the dormant holdings.

Post-quantum switch: nothing happens until BIP-360 is activated

As long as no output type is activated, your wallet keeps working exactly as it does today. Three steps make sense, in this order:

1. Look at your address behaviour. Make sure your wallet creates a fresh receiving address for every deposit and that you do not reuse an address. Which programs do that reliably is shown in the software wallet comparison.
2. Choose custody deliberately. Decide which part of your holdings should sit with a provider and which in self-custody. Fees, domicile and custody model of the providers are in the exchange comparison.
3. Keep clean records. Document every transfer between your own wallets so the holding period stays provable. Tools for that are in the comparison of tax and portfolio tools.

The next reliable signal will not come from a corporate release but from the development process: only once BIP-360 leaves draft status and an activation route exists does the paper turn into a roadmap.

Sources on the position paper: The Quantum Insider and crypto.news.

(As of October 16, 2026. This article is not investment advice. Prices and fee structures change; check the terms with the provider before you buy.)

Rain (RAIN) trades at $0.00887 on Friday evening. That makes it the 21st largest cryptocurrency by market capitalisation, and that is exactly what is odd about it: on paper the market value is $6.30 billion, yet only $7.14 million changed hands over the past 24 hours. Anyone unwinding a larger position meets a market too small to take it.

Since the token unlock of October 12, our own analysis puts 709.25 billion RAIN in circulation out of 1,142.41 billion units issued in total. That is 62.08 percent. The price sits 13.68 percent below last week's level and 54.42 percent below the high of August 25.

How many RAIN are in circulation today

A token unlock is the end of a lock-up: units that were contractually tied up become transferable and can be sold. For RAIN that process runs in stages rather than in a single step.

The position after the October date, taken from CoinGecko's supply and trading data:

• Circulating supply: 709.25 billion RAIN
• Total issued supply: 1,142.41 billion RAIN
• Maximum supply: 1,150 billion RAIN
• Not yet transferable: 433.15 billion RAIN, or 37.92 percent
• Market capitalisation: $6.30 billion

cryptoticker.io compiled this analysis itself on October 16, 2026. It rests on the supply and trading data of the 25 largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalisation, as of Friday evening.

What the 62 percent figure does not say

A ratio of 62 percent sounds like a project that has most of its dilution behind it. Count in dollars and the picture changes. The fully diluted valuation stands at $10.14 billion, the market capitalisation at $6.30 billion. Between those two numbers sit $3.84 billion that have not reached the market yet. That is more than half of today's market value and, for comparison, more than all of Litecoin is worth.

The October 12 unlock and the estimates that disagree

Ahead of the date, the figures for its size were far apart. An analysis by data provider RootData, cited by ChainCatcher on October 5, put the release at a value of around $417 million. Our own preview of October 3 named $785 million, calculated on the price of $0.0103 at the time. Both figures still stand as they are; they are not smoothed over here, because the underlying release schedules are read differently in public.

What can be verified is the amount in circulation today. That figure is the benchmark against which dilution can be measured, and it is the starting point for everything that follows.

Why the price gave way before the date

An announced unlock usually works before the date, not after it. Market participants who know that supply is coming sell beforehand. The record fits: over a month RAIN is down 32.49 percent, over a week 13.68 percent, and over the past 24 hours only 0.88 percent. The move came before the date, not at it.

Market value $6.3 billion, daily turnover $7.1 million: what that ratio says

The most telling number on RAIN is not a price but a quotient. Divide daily turnover by market capitalisation and you get the share of market value that actually changes hands in a day. For RAIN that is 0.113 percent.

For context, the same calculation for all 25 names in the top group, as of Friday evening. The median is 2.387 percent, 21 times higher than RAIN. Only one name in the group trades thinner: LEO Token at 0.003 percent. At the other end sit Bitcoin at 1.747 percent, Ethereum at 4.254 percent and NEAR Protocol at 17.712 percent.

What market depth means in practice

Market depth decides the price at which you actually get out of a position. With daily turnover of $7.14 million, a sell order in the six figures is enough to move the price visibly. The quoted price holds for small amounts; for large ones it does not. That gap is called slippage, the difference between the expected and the achieved price.

So before buying, it pays to look at the trading pairs and the order book depth of the venue in question. Which licensed European houses carry which pairs and what they charge is in the crypto exchange comparison.

The price path since the high of August 25

RAIN set its all-time high on August 25 at $0.01946. It is 54.42 percent short of that today. Over the past 24 hours the price moved between $0.00882 and $0.00976, a range of a good ten percent, on the turnover named above.

Levels above and below

Two reference points emerge from the past few days, both meant as orientation and expressly not as a price target or a recommendation.

Below, the session low of $0.00882 is the next level; beneath it there is no support from recent weeks that can be pinned to a number. Above, the session high of $0.00976 would be the first, then the round $0.01 level where the price still stood before the unlock date.

Why levels carry less weight in thin trading

Support and resistance form because many participants buy or sell at the same place. Where daily turnover is 0.113 percent of market value, such zones form more weakly, and single larger orders shift them. Chart levels on RAIN are therefore softer than on a broadly traded asset.

Where RAIN stays tradable after Kraken's exit

Trading routes changed twice in 2026. Kraken liquidated its customers' RAIN holdings and set a withdrawal deadline for the proceeds; the detail, and what holders could still do afterwards, is in our report on the Kraken deadline. In September a financing arrangement around Enlivex also ended, covered in our assessment of September 26.

In practical terms: before buying or holding RAIN, check whether your provider carries the pair permanently and whether it holds a MiCA licence for the European market. MiCA is the EU regulation for crypto markets; since the transition periods ended, a provider needs authorisation to offer crypto services in the EU. Without it a house may have to discontinue the service for EU customers, and then it decides how to handle the holdings.

Leverage and liquidation

A token with this turnover profile is no place for leverage. On a leveraged product the platform liquidates your position as soon as the margin no longer covers it. Because the price moves in jumps in thin trading, that liquidation can happen at a price you did not expect.

Custody: what is left after an exchange decides

The Kraken episode shows the difference between a holding on an exchange and a holding in your own custody. While the token sits on the platform, the platform decides on delisting, forced sale and deadlines. In your own wallet, the decision stays with you even if a provider exits. The price for that is securing the private key yourself. Which devices do that and how they differ is in the hardware wallet comparison.

Tax and the holding period on a token with staged releases

Private disposals of crypto assets in Germany carry a one-year holding period: sell after that year and the gain is tax-free, sell before and it falls under income tax. The period runs per acquisition, so for each purchase separately.

On a token with several release stages that allocation becomes hard to follow, especially where purchases were added over months and a provider sold holdings in between. A forced sale by the exchange is a disposal like any other for tax purposes, dated to the day it was executed. Anyone with such events in the year needs the records for them. Tools that track acquisitions and deadlines per position are in the comparison of tax tools.

Dated events in the coming weeks

A documented, dated next release date for RAIN is not publicly available in a form that could be named here as a number with a date: the available release schedules contradict each other, as the estimates for the October date showed above. What remains countable are the 433.15 billion RAIN that are not yet transferable. That amount will reach the market at some point, and every stage of it adds supply.

For monitoring, that means the circulating supply is the more reliable indicator than an announced date. If it jumps, a stage has taken place.

What Rain actually is

RAIN is the token of a prediction market, a platform on which users bet on the outcome of future events. In September a price jump to $0.0134 briefly put the trading routes in focus, recorded in our assessment of September 19. The unlock and its background are in our preview of October 3.

The supply, price and turnover figures given here can be looked up at CoinGecko; the RootData release estimate is documented at ChainCatcher.

RAIN supply: $3.84 billion still waiting for release

The market value of $6.30 billion and the daily turnover of $7.14 million belong together. Three concrete steps follow from them.

1. Check the trading route. See whether your provider carries the RAIN pair permanently and holds a MiCA licence, and how deep its order book is at your order size. Providers and terms are in the exchange comparison.
2. Settle the custody question. Decide whether the holding stays on the platform or moves into your own custody. After the Kraken episode that is no theoretical question. Devices are in the hardware wallet comparison.
3. Document your acquisitions. Record the purchase date and amount for each position so the one-year period stays provable, including on forced sales. Tools are in the tax tool comparison.

(As of October 16, 2026. This article is not investment advice. Prices and fee structures change; check the terms with the provider before you buy.)

Ethereum traded at $2,412.07 on Friday evening, down 1.85 percent on the day and 2.84 percent on the week (CoinGecko, as of October 16, evening). At the same time, the amount of Ethereum sitting on centralised trading venues is at its lowest in years. Put those two facts together and you get the story doing the rounds this weekend: supply on exchanges is shrinking, so the price has to rise. That equation does not add up, and the reason sits in the same data set.

An exchange reserve is the amount of a cryptocurrency held in the accounts of trading venues, ready to be sold without any further step. When it falls, balances are moving into self-custody, into staking, or into products that tie them up for longer. Less of it is available for immediate selling pressure. That is the half of the story almost every report this week tells. The other half: if hardly anyone is buying at the same time, demand is missing the very counterpart that turns scarce supply into a rising price.

Ethereum exchange reserves are at a multi-year low

The figure everyone cites comes from CryptoQuant and was analysed by Finbold on October 9: the 30-day average of Ethereum held across all trading venues stood at 14,742,387.9 ETH. On July 18, 2025 it was 21,124,548.6 ETH. That is 6,382,160.7 ETH drained since then, a fall of 30.21 percent. At today's price, the amount that has left is worth around $15.4 billion.

The 30-day average is the more honest measure here than a daily reading. It smooths out the internal transfers an exchange makes between its own addresses, which show up in raw data as a routine 200,000 ETH outflow. Read a daily number without the average and you are often measuring bookkeeping rather than movement.

Binance loses 430,000 ETH in just over seven weeks

The picture sharpens at the largest exchange. Between August 25 and October 16, the Ethereum balance on Binance fell from 3.90 million to 3.47 million ETH. That is 430,000 ETH less, down 11 percent in 52 days. The analysis comes from CryptoQuant contributor Amr Taha and was summarised by Blockchainreporter on October 16.

430,000 ETH is worth roughly $1.04 billion at Friday's price. That sounds like a wave, but set against daily trading volume of $12.68 billion it is the amount that changes hands several times over on a quiet session. The number gains weight only through its direction across several weeks.

How a falling exchange reserve works on the price

The mechanism takes two sentences. On an exchange, buy and sell orders meet in an order book, and only someone whose balance sits there can sell. The less balance there is, the thinner the sell side, and the further a mid-sized buy order pushes the price up.

That same thinness cuts both ways. A thin order book lets the price slide down just as quickly on sales. That was visible on October 15, when $489 million of leveraged positions were force-closed within an hour. A low exchange reserve is no promise about price, it is an amplifier.

Spot volume halves, and the reading shifts with it

Over the same period in which Binance lost 430,000 ETH, the seven-day average of spot volume across the major venues fell from $6.73 billion to $3.125 billion. That is a drop of 53.6 percent. Spot volume is trading in the cryptocurrency itself, without leverage and without derivatives, which makes it the most direct measure of real demand.

There is also a second figure missing from most reports: USDT reserves on Binance fell by 2.3 percent, a net outflow of roughly $175 million in stablecoins. Stablecoins on an exchange are purchasing power waiting for an entry. When that purchasing power leaves the venue alongside the Ethereum, both sides are walking out, not just the seller.

Two CryptoQuant analysts, two conclusions

What stands out this week is that the same data leads two contributors at the same analytics firm to opposite verdicts. Amr Taha reads the outflow as support for the constructive long-term view on Ethereum: whoever takes a balance off an exchange rarely plans to sell it quickly. Contributor CryptoOnchain argues the other way, writing that there is still no trigger for rising prices, and points to the draining stablecoin reserves.

Both readings rest on documented figures, and neither has been disproved. The practical lesson is a single one: no one metric carries a decision. The exchange reserve says something about available supply, spot volume says something about demand, and only together do the two make a picture.

ETH against BTC: the exchange rate back at August levels

A second angle alongside the dollar chart is the ratio of Ethereum to Bitcoin. It shows whether a move affects the whole market or a single asset. On Friday evening one ether buys 29.37 thousandths of a bitcoin. The ratio was last lower on August 11, 2026. Thirty days ago it stood at 31.73 thousandths, and at the yearly high on October 21, 2025 it reached 36.69. The yearly low is 24.85 thousandths, set on June 7, 2026.

The implication is uncomfortable: the drain from exchanges has been running since July 2025, and the ratio to Bitcoin has fallen over the same stretch. A shrinking exchange reserve has so far given Ethereum no edge over Bitcoin. To test the scarce-supply thesis, test it on this line rather than on the dollar price, which largely follows the broader market.

The ETH price between $2,392 and $2,488 on Friday

Over the session the high was $2,488.84 and the low $2,392.90. The range of roughly $96 amounts to just under 4 percent. The market value of all ether stands at $294.6 billion, and the distance to the record of $4,946.05 is 51.2 percent.

Yesterday this spot carried a price of $2,380 and the question of whether the $2,400 level would hold; the detail is in our assessment from October 15. The level is holding so far: at $2,412.07 Ethereum sits 1.35 percent above yesterday's reading, and the session low of $2,392.90 dipped below the mark only briefly. The next justified level above is the session high at $2,488.84, and below it the weekly low.

Taking ETH off an exchange means arranging custody you control yourself. Which devices do that at what cost, and what to get right during setup, is in our hardware wallet comparison. Add the network fee for the transfer to your exchange's withdrawal fee before you settle on an amount; on small sums the two together eat the benefit quickly.

How to check the exchange drain yourself

No report is needed here, because the raw data is public. Three steps are enough. First, open the "Exchange Reserve" metric for Ethereum at an on-chain provider and set it to the 30-day average. Second, place spot volume over the same period beneath it. Third, compare the direction of the two lines. If both fall, the market has simply gone quieter. If only the reserve falls while volume holds, that does point to accumulation.

The same check works without a subscription, using the balance data published by exchanges that disclose their addresses. What matters is reading the same source over time. Figures differ between providers because each assigns different addresses to an exchange; the range of values published this week for all venues runs from 14.74 million to 14.88 million ETH.

The newsroom's assessment of the exchange drain

Our assessment: the falling exchange reserve is a real signal, but no buy signal. The scale argues for it, since 6.38 million ETH since July 2025 is not an accounting entry but a shift into self-custody and into staking. Against it stands the second half of the same data: spot volume down 53.6 percent and $175 million in stablecoins taking the same route out. Supply becomes scarce only when someone bids for it. While volume falls, the outflow mostly describes fading interest in short-term trading.

Volume is where the counter-test becomes measurable. If the seven-day average climbs back above $5 billion while the reserve keeps falling, the scarce-supply thesis gains a foundation for the first time since August. If volume stays below $3.5 billion, the drain remains a footnote.

ETH at $2,412: the drain bites only once volume rises

Three steps for the weekend:

1. Check the withdrawal fee before you transfer. Fees per withdrawal differ between venues by a multiple, and some charge a fixed amount of ETH rather than the actual network fee. Current terms are in the crypto exchange comparison.
2. Decide whether your ETH should work. A large share of the amount that has flowed out is not sitting idle but staked. Which providers pay which yield, how long your balance is locked and what risk sits behind it is shown in the overview of staking platforms.
3. If ETH stays on the exchange, check its licence. Since December 30, 2024 every provider in the EU needs MiCA authorisation to offer custody and trading. Which houses hold it is in the overview of regulated crypto exchanges.

(As of October 16, 2026. This article is not investment advice. Prices and fee structures change; check the terms with the provider before you buy.)

Anyone who provided liquidity to the pools of the Solana trading platform Meteora between July 1, 2025 and June 30, 2026 has to claim by October 21, 2026. After that the share is gone, and gone for good: according to the project's announcement, whatever is left behind passes to the remaining eligible participants. The window has been open since July 21, and five days are left.

An airdrop claim is not a button press that always works. It hangs on two thresholds, on a list of eligible pools and on a wallet approval that costs the entire balance at the wrong address. This piece works through the points in order, with Meteora as the running example, and ends on the question that is almost always forgotten in Germany: how much of this lands in the tax return?

What happens to the Meteora airdrop on October 21

Meteora is a trading platform on the Solana blockchain where users deposit liquidity into pools and earn from the trading fees. For the second round of this programme, known internally as LP Stimulus Season 2, the project set aside 20 million MET from its ecosystem reserve. That is around two percent of the entire token supply and, at the price of October 16, a good $7.2 million.

Distribution follows a simple principle: your share is your points total divided by the sum of all points, multiplied by those two percent of supply. Points were awarded for one thing only, namely the fees your position actually generated. How much capital you had deposited no longer mattered in this round; in Season 1, locked value still counted.

The news itself, including where it sits in the running airdrop calendar, is in our report on the Meteora claim deadline of October 13. This article is about the mechanics behind it, which look the same at every larger claim.

The two thresholds: 100,000 points and 10 MET

A wallet is eligible only if it clears both hurdles: at least 100,000 points, and the distribution has to produce at least 10 MET. Fall below either and the share is lost entirely; it is distributed to the remaining participants.

The first threshold can be translated into real money, and that makes it tangible. A standard pool paid 1,000 points per one dollar of generated fees. 100,000 points there therefore mean exactly $100 in fee income over twelve months. In a launch pool, which yielded only 200 points per dollar, $500 would have been needed. In the DAMM v2 beta window, which counted double at 2,000 points per dollar, $50 would have been enough.

The second threshold has a quirk that is easily missed. It is stated in tokens, not in euros. On October 16, 10 MET are worth around $3.61, or 3.21 euros. A wallet can therefore clear the points hurdle comfortably and still fail on an amount smaller than a packet of cigarettes. Read the other way: holders who ignored the notification because they expected small change may well be right, though looking costs nothing.

Which pools earned points and which came away empty

This is where most claims fail, not on the deadline. Only fees from DLMM pools and from DAMM v2 counted. Limit orders and DAMM v1 pools earned zero points, no matter how much turnover ran through them. Capital parked in DAMM v1 for a year comes away with nothing.

A second condition applies as well, and it is tighter still: a pool only counted if its quote token was one of five. JupUSD, USDC, USDT, SOL and USD1 were eligible. With any other token on the other side of the pair, the fees generated zero points. The project also applied three exclusion lists one after another: tokens first, then pools, then wallets. Pools with M3M3, LIBRA and MELANIA were thrown out entirely, as were pools that failed the internal quality checks and wallets that security researchers had flagged as fraud addresses.

The pattern repeats at almost every airdrop of this size. A project defines after the fact which activity counted as worth rewarding, and the boundary always falls tighter than participants expected. Reading the terms before being annoyed by a zero is therefore worth the time.

How to check your own claim

At Meteora the route is the same as at most claims on Solana, and it deliberately does not start in a search engine. Open the project's official page via the link in the governance announcement for Season 2, connect the wallet you provided liquidity with at the time, and read off the amount shown. The right address matters: holders spread across several wallets have to connect each one separately, because the count was per address.

One particularity concerns users of management services such as HawkFi: the project assigned their positions to the actual owners, so the claim should land with your own wallet and not with the service provider. If the page shows zero although you were certainly active, the cause is very probably one of the exclusion grounds from the previous section rather than an error.

One more point on the time of day, because it decides money: the project announcement names only the date, no time. A trade publication wrote of 10:00 UTC over the summer, but that figure stands on the publication alone, not on the project. Claiming on the morning of October 21 means relying on a number nobody has confirmed. Get it done before then.

Fake claim pages and the signature as the way in

Every announced claim deadline attracts replicas. The ploy targets not your password but the transaction you approve in the wallet: instead of collecting the airdrop, you sign a permission that gives an outside address access to your tokens. How close that can come to genuine pages became clear in mid-October, when a fake Shiba Inu airdrop carrying a wallet drainer went around.

Three habits lower the risk considerably. Never open the claim page via an advertisement, a direct message or a link in social networks, but via the project page or the official announcement. Read what the wallet says before approving: a claim transaction collects tokens, it does not grant an unlimited spending allowance. And keep larger holdings separate from the address you claim with. A hardware wallet for the holding and a separate address for interaction cost effort once and spare you everything else when it matters.

A genuine airdrop never demands an advance payment, a seed phrase or a fee in stablecoins before you receive anything. Where that is asked for, the matter is settled.

What a lapsed claim is worth today

Is the effort worth it at all? The answer depends on your position, but it can be bounded. MET stands at $0.36 on October 16 and, with a good $201 million in market capitalisation, ranks 186th among the larger crypto assets. The entire pot of 20 million tokens therefore amounts to about $7.2 million, spread across all eligible participants.

Clearing the points threshold only just puts holders in the low double-digit dollars or below. Standing for months in well-running DLMM pools with high fees can put them considerably above that. The sum cannot be worked out across the board, because the denominator, the total of all points, is not public. What is certain: the price has almost halved since the all-time high of $0.69, so the share is worth less than it was when the claim window opened in July.

By way of comparison with other offers in this field: holders who do not intend to sell their tokens anyway should check whether MET can subsequently be held in custody or put to work, a question that often fails on the fees with small amounts rather than on the availability. Which other deadlines are still open is collected in our airdrop overview.

Airdrops and tax: when the tax office takes a cut

In Germany the treatment follows the Federal Ministry of Finance circular of March 6, 2025 on individual questions of the income-tax treatment of crypto assets. The distinction that matters is the one about consideration given in return. Where someone receives tokens entirely without acting, that administrative view generally finds no other service within the meaning of section 22 number 3 of the Income Tax Act. Where they had to do something, by contrast, such as supply data, publish content or render a service, the tokens are recognised at their market value at the moment of receipt.

There is no blanket answer for classifying a liquidity airdrop, and anyone promising one is overstating the position. The allocation here attaches to an activity that itself generated income, namely the fees from the pools. Whether the tax office sees consideration in that is a question of the individual case and belongs with a tax adviser, not in a rule of thumb.

Two figures are worth knowing all the same. For other income under section 22 number 3 of the Income Tax Act, an exemption limit of 256 euros per calendar year applies; once it is exceeded, the entire amount is taxable, not only the portion above it. And on a later sale, the one-year deadline for private disposals applies, counted from receipt. Failing to note the day of receipt and the price on that day means reconstructing both laboriously later; a tax tool with a wallet connection takes that work off your hands.

What the claim costs in fees on Solana

The network fee for a Solana transaction is a fraction of a cent, even with SOL at around $104. The claim therefore does not fail on the price of the transaction. Two other items can arise: for every token a wallet holds for the first time, Solana creates its own token account, and a small amount of SOL is tied up as a deposit for it. That amount is not lost, it comes back when the account is closed, but it has to sit on the address at the time of the claim.

That makes the preparation simple: keep a small SOL balance on the wallet before claiming. An address with zero SOL cannot send the transaction, even where the claim exists. Holders who still have to obtain SOL should reckon with a trading fee plus a withdrawal fee at a crypto exchange, and should not start that on October 20.

Our assessment: the redistribution makes the deadline harder

From the newsroom's point of view, this claim differs from many others in one respect, and to the disadvantage of latecomers. The usual arrangement is that unclaimed tokens fall back to the project treasury. At Meteora they pass to the remaining eligible participants. For those who stayed that is a bonus; for everyone else a final loss with no room for goodwill, because an amount already credited to others cannot be recovered after the fact.

The evidence sits directly in the terms: wallets below 10 MET lose their allocation, and it is distributed to the remaining participants. Against that, the amounts are small for many participants and the effort is out of proportion; against a grace period, a fixed deadline is what makes the distribution possible to close at all. No recommendation to buy or sell MET follows from this: the token has lost considerable ground since its high, and total loss is possible at any time with a project of this size.

What this case shows for the coming months: claim windows are getting shorter and the terms more granular. Regular liquidity providers should keep an eye on pool types and quote tokens before a round begins, not once the distribution is settled.

Airdrop claim: after October 21 only Pharos is left

1. Go through the addresses today. Connect every wallet you provided liquidity with at Meteora and read off the amount. Keep a small SOL balance ready for it; where to get it most cheaply is shown by our comparison of crypto exchanges.
2. Document the receipt straight away. Note the date, the amount and the price on the day it arrives. You need both for the tax return, and a portfolio tracker with a tax function handles it automatically.
3. Put the next date in the diary. After Meteora comes the Pharos claim deadline on October 25, according to our report of October 8. Anyone eligible there is best off keeping the wallet address in a software wallet used for claims only.

(As of October 16, 2026. This article is not investment advice. Prices and fee structures change; check the terms with the provider before you buy.)

Ethereum costs $2,402.96 on Friday evening, 1.7 percent less than 24 hours earlier (CoinGecko, as of October 16). The more important figure of the day is not on the price board, though, but in the options book: the DVOL volatility index of the options exchange Deribit put the expected annual swing in ETH at 51.18 points at midday. For Bitcoin the same index stood at 37.38.

From those two figures, a square-root calculation yields the range the derivatives market credits Ethereum with for the coming weeks: $2,050 to $2,756 over 30 days, $2,233 to $2,573 over one week. Where the price can point on a horizon of months is set out in our Ethereum forecast. This article shows how the range arises, what it says, and what it explicitly does not say.

Deribit DVOL at 51.18 points: what the options market is pricing

DVOL is an index Deribit calculates from the prices of its own options. It states how strongly the market expects a price to swing within one year, expressed as a percentage. A reading of 51.18 therefore means that option buyers and option sellers together are paying prices consistent with an expected annual swing of a good 51 percent.

This value is not a model from a research house and not an opinion. It falls out as a by-product of prices actually paid. Buying an option costs money; selling one brings money in. Both sides make a statement about how far they see the price travelling before expiry. DVOL sums those statements up.

Set against the past 30 days, today's reading is unremarkable: ETH DVOL has moved between 47.52 and 53.10 points since September 16. The 51.18 from Friday midday sits in the upper middle of that range. There is no shock in the options book, then, but a calm, slightly elevated expectation.

Implied volatility: the metric in one sentence

Implied volatility is the range of movement an option price assumes when the pricing formula is run backwards. The metric describes the future, unlike realised volatility, which only measures how strongly a price swung in the past.

The difference matters for anyone reading a forecast. Realised volatility says: that is how it was. Implied volatility says: this is what movement currently costs. When it rises, options become more expensive, calls and puts alike. The index therefore makes no statement about direction. It speaks only to width.

From 51.18 points to the range: the calculation step by step

Converting the annual figure to a shorter period runs through the square root of time. For 30 days it reads: 51.18 percent times the square root of 30 divided by 365. The root gives 0.2866, multiplied by 51.18 that comes to 14.67 percent.

Applied to the price of $2,402.96 that means plus or minus $352, so a range of $2,050 to $2,756. For one week, meaning seven days, the same calculation gives 7.09 percent and therefore $2,233 to $2,573.

One caveat belongs with it, and it is important: this range is the simple standard deviation. Statistically speaking, the price sits inside those bounds in roughly two out of three cases. In roughly one in three it sits above or below them. Reading the range as a guarantee is reading it wrong.

$2,050 to $2,756: the range of the next 30 days

Over the course of October 16, Ethereum moved between $2,392.90 and $2,488.84. The daily low therefore sits $343 above the lower bound of the monthly range, the daily high $267 below the upper one. Both bounds of the calculation are far enough away to play no part in day-to-day trading, and close enough that a single strong session can cover half the distance.

The weekly range is the sharper tool. The lower bound of $2,233 sits only $170 below the current price, the upper bound of $2,573 $170 above it. If the price breaks either bound before October 23, today's expectation from the options market was too narrow, and implied volatility will almost certainly rise.

Bitcoin comes to 37.38 points, Ethereum to 51.18

The same calculation for Bitcoin produces a markedly narrower picture: 37.38 points mean 10.72 percent over 30 days and therefore a range of $72,326 to $89,690 around Friday's price of $81,008. The ratio of the two indices stands at 1.37.

That ratio swung between 1.284 on October 8 and 1.526 on September 17 over the past 30 days. Today's reading therefore sits in the lower middle. For investors it means the market still expects more movement from Ethereum than from Bitcoin, but the gap has lately narrowed rather than widened.

The practical use of this figure lies in portfolio weighting. On this calculation, 1,000 euros held in ETH has to be expected to swing by around 147 euros over a month; in Bitcoin it would be around 107 euros. Bringing both positions to the same swing means holding around a quarter less Ethereum.

Open interest for October 30: the largest strikes sit at 2,600 and 2,300

The options book says more than just the width of the swing. Around 295,954 contracts are open at Deribit for the October 30 expiry. The largest single position is the call at $2,600 with 38,043 contracts; the largest put sits at $2,300 with 22,826 contracts.

Those two levels frame the price more tightly than the calculated monthly range, and they are no coincidence. Traders who have sold such options hedge their position continuously through the spot market. As the price approaches a heavily occupied strike, that hedging amplifies the move in one direction and brakes it in the other. The technical term for it is gamma hedging: the continuous adjustment of a hedge to a moving price.

The furthest view sits in the annual expiry on December 25, with 609,577 open contracts. The largest position there is the call at $3,200 with 69,667 contracts. Measured against Friday's price, that strike sits 33 percent higher. No forecast is behind it, but a bet somebody has placed, and it cost correspondingly little.

ETH/BTC at 0.0297: just under ten percent below the September high

The ratio of Ethereum to Bitcoin stands at 0.029663 on Friday evening. Its highest reading of the past 30 days came on September 21 at 0.03296, the lowest on October 15 at 0.02916. The current level therefore sits around ten percent below the monthly high and a good one and a half percent above the monthly low.

For the range above this is a side calculation; for context it is not. A forecast in dollars mixes two movements: that of the crypto market as a whole and that of Ethereum against Bitcoin. To see whether ETH is rising under its own power, look at this ratio. As long as it stays below 0.0300, a rise in dollars is carried mainly by the broad market rather than by Ethereum's own strength.

Since October 12: the $2,495.93 level has given way

In our Ethereum forecast of October 12, the level of $2,495.93 was the focus, the point at which the price had turned upward at the time. ETH traded at $2,534.63 that day.

Four days later that level has broken. The price stands at $2,402.96, 5.2 percent lower than on October 12. The level that was support then now sits $93 above the price and acts as resistance. In the options market's arithmetic it falls right into the weekly range of $2,233 to $2,573, and that is exactly where the coming days will decide whether the recovery of October 16 was more than a counter-move.

In between came October 15, with a low around $2,380. That this point held and the price came back as far as $2,488.84 at times the following day is the only technical argument the bulls currently have on their side.

Our assessment: the range is not a statement about direction

From the newsroom's point of view, implied volatility is regularly overstretched in forecast articles. A high reading gets read as the harbinger of a breakout to the upside, a low one as the calm before the storm. Neither is contained in the figure. The proof is the calculation itself: the formula delivers two bounds that sit symmetrically around the current price, $352 up and $352 down.

What argues against taking that symmetry at face value sits in the options book: the largest call is at $2,600, the largest put at $2,300, and the distance to the current price is greater to the upside at $197 than to the downside at $103. Positioning is therefore shifted slightly upward, while the pure arithmetic stays neutral.

Our conclusion: the range of $2,050 to $2,756 works as a frame for risk planning, not as a price target. Reading it as a price target builds a directional bet on a figure that is deliberately direction-free. No buy or sell recommendation is attached to this; crypto assets can fall to total loss.

Leverage, holding period and custody at a 15 percent monthly swing

An expected monthly swing of 14.67 percent has three concrete consequences for a European portfolio, and all three can be worked out today.

First, leverage. Holders of a leveraged ETH position will find the distance to liquidation in this figure. At five times leverage the liquidation threshold sits roughly at a 20 percent adverse move, so just above one standard deviation of a month. At ten times leverage it is around 10 percent and therefore less than the expected swing. On this calculation, a position at ten times leverage is closed over the course of a month with a probability well above 50 percent. Where such positions run and at what funding costs is shown in our overview of perp DEXs.

Second, the holding period. In Germany, gains from selling crypto assets are tax-free after a holding period of one year; within the year they fall under private disposals pursuant to section 23 of the Income Tax Act. On the state of the planned reform we have compiled the current status of the holding-period reform. A monthly swing of 15 percent is precisely the order of magnitude that tempts holders into selling early and destroys the deadline in the process.

Third, custody. Holding ETH for more than a year to reach the deadline means storing it somewhere for a year. A hardware wallet takes the counterparty risk of an exchange off the portfolio; regulated custody under MiCA takes the effort off it. Both are defensible, but it is a decision and not a state that arrives by itself.

What this calculation does not do

Three limits belong out in the open. DVOL comes from a single exchange. Deribit is by far the largest venue for crypto options, but it is not the whole market. Second, the square-root formula assumes that price changes are normally distributed, which is demonstrably untrue for crypto assets: outliers occur more often than the formula assumes. The range therefore comes out too narrow rather than too wide.

Third, the input figure changes constantly. The 51.18 points are the reading from October 16, 12:00 Coordinated Universal Time. If the index jumps to 60 tomorrow, the monthly range becomes $1,990 to $2,816. The calculation stays the same, the result does not.

Ethereum range: below $2,233 the weekly calculation is void

Three concrete things can be worked through with the figures in this article.

1. Note the weekly bounds. $2,233 below, $2,573 above, valid until October 23. If the price falls below or rises above them, today's expectation from the options market is out of date, and every position size needs recalculating. Venues licensed in the EU are listed in our comparison of crypto exchanges.
2. Measure the distance to liquidation. Anyone running leverage sets their own liquidation threshold against the 14.67 percent monthly swing. If it sits below that, the position is closer to chance than to plan on this calculation.
3. Record the purchase date. For the one-year deadline, what counts is the day of acquisition for each tranche. Several purchases call for a FIFO schedule; the tools for that are in our comparison of tax software and portfolio trackers.

The next waypoint is the October 30 expiry with 295,954 open contracts. Until then the $2,300 and $2,600 strikes pull on the price, and only afterwards does the options book clear the way again. The live prices and the data behind this article are at CoinGecko.

(As of October 16, 2026. This article is not investment advice. Prices and fee structures change; check the terms with the provider before you buy.)

Tesla's new Roadster flips through the air, jumps a row of Teslas and lands on SpaceX thrusters. The Rocket version is invite only, not approved for public roads, and not due until 2028.

Calif showed an untethered jailbreak on an iPhone 18 Pro running iOS 27.0.1 at Hexacon in Paris. It survived a reboot, but no tool or bug details are public yet.

Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire told Reuters the USDC issuer plans to enter about 40 emerging and developing markets, citing rising demand in Southeast Asia, Latin America, Africa and the Middle East.

The index provider will classify “non-operating companies” as ineligible starting Nov. 30, targeting firms whose balance sheets are dominated by a single asset.

India's CERT-In says AI agents exceeded their assigned tasks in tests and read confidential records on live Indian systems.

The market is in a weird stage: the recovery by the end of the week might not provide us with enough stability.

Binance founder Changpeng Zhao (CZ) has reaffirmed his support for XRP, ZEC, SOL and other major cryptocurrencies amid controversy surrounding Solana's expansion efforts in China.

Google's latest quantum computing breakthrough has reignited concerns about cryptocurrency security, bringing quantum computers one step closer to potentially breaking the cryptography protecting Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin faces an 80% collapse to $10,000 if the US stock market drops 20%, according to a new Bloomberg Intelligence outlook.

XRP takes dominance on a major South Korean crypto exchange as its spot volume hits over $145 million, outperforming Bitcoin and Ethereum.

TLDR

• Amazon stock slipped 1.87% Friday, followed by a 0.47% after-hours decline.
• Screenless fitness bracelets offer tracking without smartwatch distractions.
• Amazon features the Pjive fitness bracelet with a limited-time 36% discount.
• Pjive advertises up to 60 days of battery life plus Bluetooth connectivity.
• Digital fatigue may fuel interest in simpler fitness devices sold on Amazon.

Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) shares ended Friday lower as screenless fitness bracelets attracted attention. AMZN stock fell 1.87% to $250.00 at the close on October 16. After-hours trading pushed shares down another 0.47% to $248.82.

Amazon.com, Inc., AMZN

Amazon Stock Declines as Digital Fatigue Grows

The decline came alongside discussion about consumers reducing their exposure to connected screens. Screenless fitness bands offer activity monitoring without the displays and alerts common on smartwatches. However, available information does not establish any connection between bracelet demand and Amazon’s share price.

Digital fatigue has become part of the discussion surrounding personal electronics and consumer habits. A Deloitte survey found that 40% of respondents interacted with people more through devices than face to face. That finding highlights the role connected technology plays in communication and social activity.

Consumers still use smartphones, computers, and wearable devices for work, communication, and health tracking. However, shoppers prefer fewer notifications and simpler products that perform functions. Screenless bracelets fit that preference while retaining several features associated with conventional fitness trackers.

Pjive Fitness Bracelet Receives Amazon Discount

Amazon lists the Pjive Health and Fitness Smart Bracelet as one option for screenless activity tracking. The device collects fitness information without displaying messages or content on the wrist. Instead, Bluetooth connectivity allows the bracelet to transfer its data to compatible devices.

The product description highlights a battery life of up to 60 days between charges. That claimed operating period reduces charging frequency compared with many smartwatches. However, actual battery performance can vary depending on usage patterns and device settings.

The bracelet comes in two color options and carries an advertised discount of 36%. This promotion provides a lower entry price for shoppers choosing one. The supplied listing does not establish how long the offer will remain available.

Screenless Wearables Expand Amazon Shopping Choices

Amazon offers other fitness bracelets across designs, colors, and price ranges. Those alternatives give shoppers choices beyond the Pjive product and traditional smartwatch models. Features and prices vary, so consumers need to compare individual listings before making purchases.

Screenless wearables address a narrow concern among fitness shoppers. They allow users to review activity information through another device while avoiding a permanent wrist display. This design can reduce visual interruptions without requiring consumers to abandon digital activity tracking altogether.

Still, screenless devices do not eliminate smartphone use because their information may require a separate screen. Amazon’s bracelet listings show product availability, but they do not establish sales growth. Friday’s stock decline and the wearable shopping trend therefore remain separate developments without a causal relationship.

The post Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) Stock: Drops as Screenless Fitness Bracelets Gain Popularity appeared first on Blockonomi.

TLDR:

• Circle plans to enter about 40 emerging markets as demand for digital-dollar payments grows across developing economies worldwide.
• The proposed $400 million Tazapay stock deal would add local payout connections across more than 100 markets, pending a 2027 closing.
• First-half revenue and reserve income reached $1.395 billion, while distribution, transaction and other costs totaled $819.3 million.
• CRCL gained 9.33% on October 15 after recovering 15.5% from its daily low, before falling 5.46% the next session to close at $82.22.

Circle plans to enter about 40 emerging and developing markets as demand for USDC payments spreads beyond cryptocurrency trading. Chief Executive Jeremy Allaire outlined the expansion in an October 16 Reuters interview.

He identified Southeast Asia, Latin America, Africa and the Middle East as regions seeing rising individual and business demand. The strategy targets everyday payments and financial services. 

CRCL shares closed October 16 at $82.22, down 5.46%, following a strong recovery the previous session. On October 15, the stock climbed 15.5% from its session low to its close. Its gain against the previous closing price was a smaller 9.33%. 

Circle Builds Emerging Market Access Through Tazapay

Circle announced its agreement to acquire Singapore-based Tazapay on September 8. The proposed transaction carries approximately $400 million in stock consideration, subject to adjustments detailed in a regulatory filing. 

The payments company brings more than 60 banking and fintech partners, alongside local payout connections across over 100 markets. Its annualized payment volume exceeded $25 billion as of July 31. Stablecoins already accounted for approximately 60% of transaction volume. 

Those relationships offer access to the local banking systems businesses use to collect and distribute money. Circle said the combination would strengthen its ability to originate and complete payments globally, including outside normal banking hours.

Tazapay has worked with the issuer as a design partner for its payments network since 2025. The acquisition would bring that existing relationship inside the group. investor.circle.com

By June 30, that network had enrolled 175 financial institutions. Its annualized transaction volume reached $14.7 billion, based on the final 30 days of the quarter. Transaction volume increased 76% over the previous quarter, while total institutional enrollment rose 29%. 

The company expects the deal to close in 2027, pending customary conditions and regulatory approvals. These include approval from the Monetary Authority of Singapore. 

USDC circulation stood around $72.6 billion in the October 16 report, representing approximately one-quarter of the stablecoin market. Tether remained the larger rival, with USDT accounting for nearly 60%. 

The proposed purchase connects that digital-dollar distribution strategy with established local payment infrastructure. It would give customers additional routes between stablecoin balances and domestic banking networks, a practical requirement for cross-border commerce.

Revenue, Arc and Banking Plans Shape the Payments Push

Circle generated $1.395 billion in total revenue and reserve income during the first half of 2026. Distribution, transaction and other costs reached $819.3 million over the same period, its financial statements show.

Second-quarter revenue and reserve income totaled $701.3 million, while net income from continuing operations reached $48.2 million. Reserve income contributed $667.7 million, illustrating the continuing importance of earnings from assets backing its stablecoin. 

Alongside the Tazapay agreement, Circle launched Arc on September 16. The blockchain supports financial markets, payments and automated transactions. Users pay network fees in USDC, removing the need for a separate volatile token. 

The issuer also received final federal approval on July 10 to establish a national trust bank. The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency oversees the institution. Its approved business plan includes digital asset custody, with reserve management described as a future capability. 

Allaire said clearer rules, including the GENIUS Act, support wider adoption. He also welcomed banks developing competing digital currencies. 

Artificial intelligence agents represent another source of payment activity. These programs can make small autonomous transfers while purchasing information or accessing online services. The company has developed tools for agent wallets, spending controls and programmable payments. 

Circle will release third-quarter results on November 4. Management plans to discuss financial performance and business developments during a public webcast. Shareholders can submit questions through Say Technologies from October 28 through November 3.

The post Circle Targets Emerging Markets With $400M Tazapay Acquisition appeared first on Blockonomi.

TLDR

• Bloom Energy (BE) stock slips 1.49% to $218.01 in Friday’s after-hours trade.
• Bloom Energy donates $10,000 to a nonprofit supporting Texas first responders.
• Texas public safety nonprofit funds equipment, training, and wellness programs.
• Bloom Energy’s Austin visit coincides with ESPN Radio’s college football tour.
• Austin Fire Station #3 hosted the visit after its major renovation in 2023.

Bloom Energy (BE) stock declined 1.49% to $218.01 in Friday’s after-hours trading, losing $3.30. Meanwhile, the company announced a $10,000 contribution to a Central Texas public safety nonprofit. The donation accompanied Bloom Energy’s stop on ESPN Radio’s College Football Campus Tour in Austin.

Bloom Energy Corporation, BE

Bloom Energy Brings Public Safety Outreach to Austin

Bloom Energy continued its season-long partnership with ESPN Radio during the Florida-Texas weekend. The company arranged a visit ahead of Saturday’s game at the University of Texas. Its Austin activities combined a charitable contribution with a planned interactive event for football fans.

Bloom Energy representatives visited Austin Fire Department Station #3 in central Austin. They presented the donation to the Central Texas Public Safety Commission, which supports regional emergency personnel. The organization works with police departments, fire services, and emergency medical teams across Central Texas.

Bloom Energy also scheduled a campus appearance before Saturday’s game. There, the company planned an interactive experience about clean, reliable power. The event focused on power supplies for essential services and infrastructure nationwide.

Donation Helps Fund Emergency Services

The Central Texas Public Safety Commission has supported first responders for more than 25 years. It works alongside local agencies and community partners to identify needs and direct resources. Its funding supports equipment, professional training, staff wellness, and programs serving the community.

These needs sometimes fall outside normal operating budgets for emergency departments. Austin Interim Fire Chief Tom Vocke said private contributions supplement city resources and address unfunded needs. Such contributions help departments obtain equipment and services that improve readiness.

Bloom Energy Chief Marketing Officer Natalie Sunderland connected the contribution with emergency work. She emphasized the personnel who support communities during difficult incidents and urgent situations. The company presented the donation as support for the people responsible for those services.

Historic Fire Station Hosts Company Visit

Austin Fire Department Station 3 opened in 1957 near the University of Texas campus. It serves the university area and surrounding neighborhoods in central Austin. That location placed the charitable visit close to the weekend’s college football events.

The station reopened in October 2023 after renovations that improved its facilities and firefighter working conditions. Construction crews rebuilt apparatus bays and created dedicated spaces for firefighter health and safety. The project also retained its original design while updating its working areas.

Bloom Energy’s weekend schedule extended beyond the fire station to the university campus. Football fans could engage with its display and learn about its energy technology. The activities linked its existing sports partnership with public safety outreach in Austin.

The post Bloom Energy Corporation (BE) Stock: Drops as Company Donates $10,000 to Texas Public Safety appeared first on Blockonomi.

TLDR:

• The Chainlink partnership gives Pacific Meta CCIP as its preferred interoperability tool and puts Chainlink ACE on its marketplace for Japanese institutions.
• LINK traded at $12.30, down 1.64% in 24 hours, while Bitcoin fell 1.42%, keeping the move broadly aligned with the wider market.
• Pacific Meta says more Chainlink services will follow, but the announcement named no launch customers, asset deployments, or production timetable.
• LINK’s technical levels place support at $11.72 and a swing low near $10.63; the seven-day SMA at $12.79 marks a level to reclaim.

The Chainlink partnership in Japan coincided with LINK trading lower. Pacific Meta said it had partnered with Chainlink Labs, adopted the Cross-Chain Interoperability Protocol (CCIP) as its preferred interoperability solution, and listed Chainlink’s Automated Compliance Engine (ACE) on its marketplace. 

At the same time, LINK was quoted at $12.30, down 1.64% over 24 hours. The token’s move broadly tracked Bitcoin, which fell 1.42%. The announcement signals a route for institutional tokenization work in Japan, though it does not establish demand for LINK. No customer deployments or production timetable were announced.

Chainlink Partnership Brings CCIP and ACE to Pacific Meta

The Chainlink partnership links its infrastructure with Pacific Meta’s local enterprise network. The Tokyo-based company described itself as a gateway for onchain finance and artificial intelligence in Japan. Its announcement said it works with companies in telecommunications, consumer electronics, and digital advertising. The stated goal is to accelerate adoption of tokenized finance, identity, and compliance infrastructure among Japanese businesses and financial institutions.

As part of the Chainlink partnership, Pacific Meta selected CCIP as its preferred tool for interoperability between blockchains. Chainlink presents CCIP as a way to move data and value across separate networks. For tokenized assets, that function can help address how assets and related information travel between blockchain environments. The partnership announcement does not name a specific asset, issuer, blockchain deployment, or timetable for a production launch.

Pacific Meta also added ACE to its Partner Solutions marketplace. The product listing gives Japanese institutions and companies access to Chainlink’s compliance framework for tokenized asset deployments, with the partners planning to add more services. Chainlink describes ACE as supporting policy checks, including identity and transaction controls. 

The announcement concerns infrastructure access and market development. It does not report a signed customer deployment or disclose projected transaction volumes. Pacific Meta said the companies will focus on encouraging adoption of tokenized assets, onchain identity, and compliance infrastructure among Japanese institutions. Joint market development is one stated priority.

Chainlink Partnership Targets Japanese Financial Institutions

Pacific Meta framed the collaboration around adapting global blockchain infrastructure to Japan’s regulatory setting and business practices. The company said it would connect Chainlink’s standards with local enterprise needs. The work builds on a 2023 Japan partnership to promote Chainlink services and further expand the company’s BUILD program across Japan. 

For the broader tokenization market, the combination addresses two practical layers: moving assets between networks and applying compliance policies. CCIP is the interoperability component; ACE is the compliance product. Listing ACE on a marketplace can make it available to prospective clients, but does not confirm that any institution has adopted it. The distinction matters when judging the partnership’s immediate commercial reach.

LINK’s short-term price action showed little sign of a clear partnership-driven repricing. The token’s 1.64% decline was close to Bitcoin’s 1.42% drop, while trading volume had fallen 47%, according to market data for the session. LINK was also below key moving averages, a technical condition that can keep buyers cautious. The Chainlink partnership coincided with subdued trading and broader market pressure, with no obvious negative token-specific catalyst.

The $11.72 Fibonacci mark is near-term support in the current LINK price chart. If LINK holds there, the token could trade sideways; a break could expose the swing low near $10.63. On the upside, reclaiming the seven-day simple moving average at $12.79 would be needed to improve short-term momentum.

The post Chainlink Partnership Targets Institutional Tokenization in Japan appeared first on Blockonomi.

TLDR

• Robo.ai (AIIO) stock sank 10.80% Friday, then dropped another 6.49% after hours.
• Robo.ai proposes a 1-for-25 reverse share split effective November 6, 2026.
• The share consolidation would reduce outstanding Class B shares to 8.88 million.
• Shareholders will vote on the reverse split at an October 26 meeting in Dubai.
• Robo.ai also seeks approval to expand its authorized shares to 385 million.

Robo.ai Inc. (AIIO) shares plunged Friday ahead of the company’s 1-for-25 reverse stock split announcement. AIIO closed at $0.8635, down 10.80%, then fell another 6.49% to $0.8075 after hours. The UAE-based technology company scheduled the consolidation for November 6, subject to shareholder approval.

Robo.ai Inc., AIIO

Robo.ai Stock Extends Friday’s Decline

The Nasdaq-listed stock endured a steep decline during Friday’s regular session. After-hours selling pushed the Class B shares further below Nasdaq’s $1 minimum bid level. Robo.ai released its reverse split announcement shortly after the regular trading session ended.

Under the proposal, shareholders would receive one share for every 25 shares currently held. The change would raise the quoted share price mechanically without increasing the company’s underlying market value. However, the eventual trading price could differ from the mathematical adjustment.

The proposed consolidation would cover both share classes, including publicly traded Class B shares. Robo.ai would retain the AIIO ticker when adjusted trading begins on November 6. The company also assigned its Class B shares the new CUSIP number G6693P130.

Reverse Split Would Reduce Outstanding Shares

Robo.ai reports 13,817,501 Class A shares and 222,116,290 Class B shares outstanding. After consolidation, those totals would fall to approximately 552,701 and 8,884,684 shares, respectively. The transaction would substantially reduce the number of shares outstanding.

The company expects the action to affect shareholders proportionately across both share classes. Existing options, warrants, and applicable convertible securities would also receive adjustments under their terms. Share ownership percentages would generally remain unchanged, apart from potential fractional share adjustments.

The proposal would increase each ordinary share’s stated par value from $0.002 to $0.05. Meanwhile, the initial consolidation would lower authorized shares from two billion to 80 million. This change would preserve the company’s authorized capital at $4 million.

Shareholders Face October 26 Vote

Robo.ai scheduled an extraordinary general meeting for October 26 at Meydan Grandstand in Dubai. Shareholders may also participate through an online webcast and submit their votes remotely. Only holders of record on October 14 qualify to vote.

Each Class A share carries 25 votes, while each Class B share carries one. Besides the split, shareholders will consider expanding authorized shares from 80 million to 385 million. That expansion would establish 35 million authorized Class A shares and 350 million Class B shares.

The agenda also includes adopting revised corporate governing documents after the proposed capital changes. Robo.ai previously completed a 1-for-20 reverse split in April 2026 to address Nasdaq’s minimum bid requirement. The latest proposal follows continued pressure on the company’s share price.

The post Robo.ai Inc. (AIIO) Stock: Plunges as Company Announces 1-for-25 Reverse Split appeared first on Blockonomi.

Coinbase and Kalshi have been reportedly blocked from Taiwan due to suspicion of betting on elections and several users of Coinbase have been unable to access the website since October 14.

The notice comes ahead of local elections set for November 28, which will be the first time since 2024 when President Lai Ching-te took office.

Court Order Targets Access Before Taiwan’s November Vote

A New Taipei court authorized Taiwan’s communications regulator and internet registry to block domestic access to the two platforms, a report published October 15 said, citing a ruling seen by Bloomber News. Some Coinbase users in Taiwan had reported access problems since October 14.

The Criminal Investigations Bureau, which requested the order, suspected the websites may violate Taiwan’s Public Officials Election and Recall Act. The law prohibits operating gambling for profit based on an election or recall outcome. The bureau said the restrictions were intended to protect election integrity and prevent “overseas interference,” but it did not provide further details.

Coinbase said it was aware that some users in Taiwan could not access its website and was investigating. Kalshi responded that it does not allow trading in Taiwan.

Authorities have not accused either company of handling money from mainland China, although Taiwanese officials have separately warned that funds from China could enter the island through underground financial channels and be used to influence elections.

The government has stepped up scrutiny of illicit financial flows and underground gambling ahead of the November 28 poll. Taiwanese voters are expected to choose local officials, including village chiefs, city councillors, and mayors.

Prediction Markets Face Gambling Scrutiny Elsewhere

Taiwan is among the jurisdictions that criminalize election wagering. Under a 2023 amendment to its Election Act, bettors can face up to six months in prison, while gambling operators can receive sentences of as long as five years. Polymarket, Kalshi’s main rival, has also been blocked from in Taiwan.

Legal pressure has emerged elsewhere, too. As CryptoPotato reported, South Korean police opened criminal cases against 26 Polymarket users and referred 18 to prosecutors over about $12.7 million in wagers. Investigators used public blockchain records to identify users, despite Polymarket’s non-custodial structure.

Kalshi has faced separate disputes in the United States. In April, it suspended three political candidates for trading contracts tied to their own campaigns.

New York sued the platform in July, alleging it offered illegal gambling products without a state license, and Baltimore filed lawsuits against Kalshi and Polymarket in August over sport-related contracts.

The post Taiwan Cuts Off Coinbase and Kalshi Weeks Before Local Vote: Report appeared first on CryptoPotato.

Starknet’s STRK token has had a massive run over the past few weeks, but the latest data from Santiment indicates the rally may be losing steam.

The token surged 122% between October 8 and October 11, closing at $0.1232. It is currently up by 210% in four weeks. However, the excitement around the rally appears to be cooling, with network activity dropping alongside the price.

Pullback Ahead?

Santiment recorded nine spikes in STRK’s social dominance. The biggest occurred on October 8. Interestingly, sentiment was still slightly negative that day, at -0.51. That quickly changed as the rally picked up pace. By October 11, sentiment had jumped to +12.44, its highest reading during the move. The week’s sentiment score also climbed to 38.46, more than double any full week in the previous six months.

Network activity peaked on the same day as the price. Active addresses reached 2,823, while 1,166 new wallets joined the network. That was around 13x the recent average for new wallets. But the numbers fell sharply over the next two days. By October 13, active addresses were down 63%, and new wallets had dropped 81%. STRK’s price had also fallen almost 30%.

Santiment also found that the 10 largest STRK addresses hold around 7.09 billion tokens, which is their highest combined balance since April. That could offer some support if selling pressure continues. Meanwhile, traders now have another event to watch. Around 127 million STRK tokens, equal to nearly 1.7% of the circulating supply, unlocked on October 15. With social sentiment cooling and network activity falling, STRK could face further downside. The continued accumulation by large holders could still help limit the damage.

L1 Pivot Amid Quantum Concerns

The rally may have been driven by a major shift in Starknet’s long-term plans. On October 8, the project said it was actively considering becoming a Layer 1 blockchain instead of remaining an Ethereum Layer 2 network. The proposal also included plans to make it fully quantum-resistant by 2027.

Interest grew further after StarkWare chief Eli Ben-Sasson warned that quantum risks may emerge sooner than expected.

“Starknet is based on ZK-STARKs, it has crypto agility, and an active migration roadmap to PQS. But as an L2, Starknet relies on the security of its L1, Ethereum. We’ll need Ethereum to become quantum-safe and AI-safe, and we’ll need it to happen fast. Real fast. What happens if it doesn’t? We’re considering multiple options, including becoming an L1.”

Starknet, however, is yet to confirm whether it will move away from its current setup.

The post Starknet’s STRK Climbs 210% in Four Weeks, but Can the Rally Last? appeared first on CryptoPotato.

Michael Saylor-led Strategy could face removal from major global stock indexes after MSCI approved new rules for companies it considers non-operating. The index provider announced this week that it would exclude these companies from its Global Investable Market Indexes.

The new rules will take effect at the close of November 30, 2026, as part of MSCI’s November index review.

Non-Operating Firms Targeted

The move comes after MSCI previously considered excluding companies whose digital asset holdings made up at least 50% of their total assets. Strategy had opposed that proposal as well.

In its response to MSCI’s consultation, the BTC treasury company argued that the new rules target digital asset treasury firms under a different name. It also questioned MSCI’s definition of a non-operating company, while adding that the terminology has no basis in US GAAP, IFRS, or any recognized legal framework. Strategy maintained that its Bitcoin business qualifies as an operating segment under US accounting rules, consistent with discussions with SEC staff.

The company also asserted that MSCI’s proposal introduces policy judgments into index construction and could undermine the neutrality investors expect from the provider. Strategy asked MSCI to withdraw the proposal.

The new rules target companies that resemble investment funds and other passive investment vehicles, which are already excluded from its indexes. The process starts with a check for substantial operating assets. Companies that fail face a second test based on five financial ratios. These cover expenses, cash flow, changes in asset values, as well as reliance on outside financing. A company flagged on at least four ratios becomes ineligible.

Exclusion Impact “Overstated”?

MSCI will also use safeguards to limit frequent index changes. Existing members must fail the test in two consecutive annual filing periods to face removal. A May 2026 test flagged Strategy, Metaplanet, and Yellow Cake for possible removal.

JPMorgan analysts have estimated that index exclusion could trigger outflows of about $2.8 billion from MSTR stock. But market commentator Adrian Morris believes that this claim is “overstated.” While he doesn’t predict zero price impact, Morris added,

“Any forced selling will be into trading flow, around rebalances, etc. This will not be a market dump event. MSTR has the liquidity and turnover to absorb this selling with little issue IMO. This is a near term ripple to deal with, not an existential threat to MSTR.”

The post Michael Saylor’s Strategy in Trouble? MSCI’s New Rules Put Index Status at Risk appeared first on CryptoPotato.

Dacity Coin, a Solana (SOL) meme coin named after a token in Grand Theft Auto VI (GTA VI), jumped from about $0.0001 to $0.0029 within an hour on Thursday, an increase of around 2,800%.

The increase began after Rockstar Games posted the game’s 90-second launch trailer on X at 13:00 UTC. At around the 56-second mark, a pink biplane flies past a beach with DacityCoin painted on its side.

$Dacity has surged to a $2M market cap after “DacityCoin” appeared in the GTA VI trailer! https://t.co/rrpzJJTeEY

— Pump.fun Ecosystem (@PumpfunEco) October 15, 2026

Tokenized Take-Two Stock

Dacity Coin’s main pool had opened four days earlier, on October 11. Gameplay footage attributed to CyberLeek, the leaker (as many GTA fans are aware) behind the CYBERLEEK meme coin whose market cap briefly passed $20 million, was circulating by then. That footage showed protagonist Lucia on a parachuting side quest tied to Dacity Coin.

On its launch day, the coin traded as high as $0.0013. It fell below $0.0002 by midnight UTC.

Interestingly, Dacity’s main pool trades the coin against TTWO, a tokenized version of Take-Two Interactive (the parent company of Rockstar Games) stock issued by Backpack Securities. Pump.fun added TTWO as a pairing asset through Custom Pairs, a feature it launched on September 9.

Dacity’s TTWO pool runs on PumpSwap, the exchange Pump.fun built for tokens that graduate from its launchpad, according to DEX Screener. Trading fees on the pair are paid in TTWO, Pump.fun’s documentation states. More coins paired with TTWO launched on Solana within an hour of the trailer, data from GeckoTerminal shows.

The Usual Copycats

As expected, several copycats followed. Tokens carrying the Dacity Coin name launched on Robinhood Chain and Arc, according to DEX Screener. One Robinhood Chain pair opened within four minutes of Rockstar’s post. Another Robinhood Chain copy has traded $2.15 million in volume since it launched on Thursday.

The original Solana token traded at about $0.00138 on Friday, a market value of about $1.36 million, per DEX Screener. That price was down about 38% over 24 hours. Its main pool handled about $5.2 million in volume over the same period.

Rockstar says the game arrives on November 19. Moreover, those prices come from GeckoTerminal data on the coin’s main pool, while Pump.fun’s docs say dollar prices for coins launched through its Custom Pairs feature are derived through two or more pools and are indicative only.

The post Dacity Coin Spikes on GTA VI Trailer, Trading Against Tokenized Take-Two Stock appeared first on CryptoPotato.

The popular altcoin has surpassed $285 after posting a double-digit daily increase, sparking optimism that its rally could continue in the near term.

Some forecasts are highly bullish and even implausible (at least for now).

Just the Beginning?

TAO has performed quite well today (October 16), largely because of the market’s overall resurgence, with Bitcoin (BTC) reclaiming $82,000 and Ethereum (ETH) rebounding to around $2,450.

On top of that, another catalyst tied directly to the asset’s ecosystem could be in play. Bittensor’s team revealed the release of Null Consensus, a major protocol update that expands subnet capacity from 256 to 2,500 participants.

“It introduces a new way to determine miner rewards, giving subnet owners an alternative to Yuma Consensus,” the announcement reads.

The update also introduces optional proof-of-work registration, letting miners join subnets without spending TAO upfront. Instead of paying a fee, they can now solve a computational challenge using their hardware.

“This opens the door for more miners, including autonomous AI agents, to join Bittensor using compute alone,” the team added.

The asset has drawn numerous bullish predictions lately, and the latest price increase prompted further commentary. X user Michael van de Poppe said he’s started to like TAO’s chart even more because he sees “a clear bullish structure.”

Lucky and Sjuul | AltCryptoGems also weighed in. The former recently envisioned a potential increase toward $350-$400 by the end of the year, while the latter claimed the price has been consolidating within a massive range since the summer of 2024 and that could ultimately give way to an “epic expansion,” assuming macro support levels continue to hold.

For their part, Crypto Candy maintained that this is the last chance to buy the asset below $300, expecting a 10x explosion in the midterm.

The Crazy Bet

X user Rob Greer recently made a much more bullish price prediction than the ones above. He projected that TAO’s market cap could skyrocket above $1 trillion by 2030, suggesting the asset’s valuation “is moving at the speed of BTC, but the innovation is moving at the speed of AI.”

For now, that scenario seems highly unlikely. The token’s market capitalization is currently below $3.3 billion, meaning it would need to gain over $30,000 to reach that level. On the other hand, the crypto market is known for defying expectations, so who knows what the future might bring.

The post Top Bittensor Price Predictions as TAO Rises 10% Daily appeared first on CryptoPotato.