Internal discord among Bitcoin developers poses a greater risk than quantum computing, potentially impacting future upgrades and stability.

The post Bitcoin’s biggest risk is governance, not quantum computing, says Galaxy CEO appeared first on Crypto Briefing.

Yearn Finance highlights the urgent need for better risk management as DeFi faces growing challenges.

The post Corn: DeFi faces critical customer support challenges, Yearn’s foresight on UST highlights governance risks, and the market is set for recovery in late 2023 | On The Brink with Castle Island appeared first on Crypto Briefing.

2025 is set to be a game-changing year for blockchain, with explosive growth in digital wallets and investments.

The post Matthew Le Merle: 2025 will be the year of crypto equity, hundreds of millions will adopt digital wallets, and US regulation is shifting positively | On The Brink with Castle Island appeared first on Crypto Briefing.

AI advancements are reshaping startup productivity and could soon outpace human investors in venture capital.

The post Qiao Wang: AI coding tools are revolutionizing productivity for startups, the competitive moats of tech giants remain intact, and personalized marketing will dominate the future | Empire appeared first on Crypto Briefing.

Recent declines in DeFi lending highlight both challenges and new opportunities in the evolving crypto landscape.

The post Wyatt: Crypto lending markets are sustainable despite recent declines, the critical role of Total Value Locked (TVL), and the risks of leveraged systems | On The Brink with Castle Island appeared first on Crypto Briefing.

Bitcoin Magazine

Strategy ($MSTR) Plummets 8% As Bitcoin Hits One‑Year Lows

Shares of Strategy plunged today, dipping more than 8% in trading as Bitcoin traded at new one-year lows and crypto risk assets came under renewed pressure. 

The decline pushed MSTR’s share price to levels not seen since late 2024, deepening a multi‑month downtrend that has left the stock among the worst performers on the Nasdaq this year.

Bitcoin’s slump — dipping below key technical thresholds over the weekend and early week — has reverberated through markets, hitting crypto‑linked equities especially hard. 

Shares of major crypto platforms, like Robinhood and Circle also lost ground, highlighting the increasing correlation between Bitcoin prices and related stocks.

With over 713,000 Bitcoins on its balance sheet, purchased at an average cost near $76,000 per coin, Strategy is grappling with unrealized losses after Bitcoin’s recent slide below that level.

Despite price dips, Chairman Michael Saylor has made it clear that Strategy won’t be selling its Bitcoin — and in fact is doubling down on purchases even as the market dips, signaling his intent to keep accumulating more.

In his messaging, he’s basically said he’s comfortable with holding and adding even on weakness, not cashing out when prices fall. 

Strategy bought more bitcoin last week

Earlier this week, Strategy said it purchased 855 bitcoin for about $75.3 million, paying an average price of $87,974 per BTC, according to a Monday filing. 

The acquisition came just days before bitcoin fell below $75,000 over the weekend on some rapid selling, briefly pushing Strategy’s treasury close to $1 billion in unrealized losses.

Now, the price of bitcoin is below those levels near $74,000.

The company now holds 713,502 BTC, acquired for roughly $54.26 billion at an average cost of $76,052 per coin. 

Last week’s purchase was fully funded through the sale of common stock, following Strategy’s ongoing capital-raising approach to finance bitcoin buys. The purchase of 855 bitcoin was significantly smaller compared to prior company purchases.

At the time of writing, bitcoin’s price dropped below $74,000 today, its lowest level in a year. The bitcoin price has now retraced more than 40% from its all‑time highs reached in late 2025. 

Prior to today, the one-year low for the bitcoin price was $74,747. Strategy shares started the day at $139.66, but are currently trading at $128.87. The shares 52-week high was around $450 per share.

This post Strategy ($MSTR) Plummets 8% As Bitcoin Hits One‑Year Lows first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Micah Zimmerman.

Bitcoin Magazine

Bitcoin Price Plunges 40% From All-Time Highs to One-Year Lows

Bitcoin’s price dropped below $75,000 today, its lowest level in nearly a year, as global crypto markets endured a sustained wave of selling triggered by broader financial stresses and shifting investor appetite. 

The bitcoin price has now retraced more than 40% from its all‑time highs reached in late 2025. According to Bitcoin Magazine Pro data, the one-year low for the bitcoin price is $74,747. Bitcoin is dancing near that number.

Recent trading data showed Bitcoin price slipping through key technical support levels, driving forced liquidations across derivatives markets and intensifying downside price pressure. Over roughly the past 24 hours, around $2.56 billion in Bitcoin positions were liquidated, according to market data. 

This follows weeks of risk‑off sentiment across global asset classes.

The downturn in cryptocurrencies has coincided with stress in other markets like precious metals, tech sell-offs, and losses in equities. 

Institutional players report losses as policy signals remain dubious 

The market slide has had tangible impacts on key industry participants. Galaxy Digital, a major crypto investment firm led by Michael Novogratz, reported a $482 million loss for the fourth quarter of 2025, earlier today. 

The firm attributed this to the decline in digital asset prices and a sharp drop in trading volumes, which fell more than 40% from the prior quarter. Galaxy’s stock traded lower following the earnings release, reflecting investor concern about the broader bitcoin price and crypto downturn.

Also, Bitcoin price currently trades below $76,000, which is roughly the average price at which Strategy acquired a portion of its BTC holdings and well below the cost of many of its accumulated coins. 

Since Strategy owns hundreds of thousands of bitcoins at higher average purchase prices, the current market value is less than what was paid for much of its inventory, leaving a significant portion of its holdings “underwater.”

Market participants have also pointed to U.S. monetary policy developments as a significant driver of the sell‑off. 

The recent nomination of Kevin Warsh as chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve by President Donald Trump has prompted forecasts of tighter monetary conditions. 

A strengthening U.S. dollar in response to monetary policy shifts has also weighed on Bitcoin. A firmer dollar typically makes non‑yielding assets like Bitcoin less attractive, reducing inflows from investors seeking currency‑neutral hedges. Analysts noted that the dollar’s recent performance provided technical headwinds that amplified the crypto market’s decline.

The Trump administration has continued to engage with industry leaders on digital asset policy, including efforts to advance regulatory clarity through legislation such as the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act. 

This dialogue has really slowed down over the last couple of months, it has not yet translated into stabilizing price action amid current conditions.

Bitcoin price in genuine ‘crypto winter’

Despite this, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan said in a recent memo that the crypto market has been in a genuine “crypto winter” since early 2025, rather than experiencing a short-lived correction. 

Hougan highlighted that bearish sentiment remains strong, as evidenced by the Crypto Fear and Greed Index, which shows near all-time fear levels despite positive developments like the appointment of a bitcoin-friendly Fed chair.

Hougan noted that institutional flows helped mask the severity of the downturn. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs and digital asset treasury vehicles purchased over 744,000 BTC during this period—roughly $75 billion in demand — cushioning bitcoin price’s drawdown, which he estimated could have reached nearly 60% without this support. 

He compared the current environment to previous downturns in 2018 and 2022, where markets remained depressed despite incremental positive news.

Looking ahead, Hougan suggested that crypto winters often end not with exuberance but with exhaustion. In his words, “It’s always darkest before the dawn.”

Bitcoin price is currently at $74,800, with a 24-hour trading volume of 55 B. BTC is -5% in the last 24 hours. It is currently -5% from its 7-day all-time high of $78,994.

This post Bitcoin Price Plunges 40% From All-Time Highs to One-Year Lows first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Micah Zimmerman.

Bitcoin Magazine

Bitcoin-Treasury The Smarter Web Company Listed on London Stock Exchange

The Smarter Web Company began trading on the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange today, marking a major milestone for the UK-based firm as it continues to position itself as Britain’s largest publicly listed bitcoin holder.

The company’s shares debuted under the ticker SWC at 43p. The uplisting follows the company’s initial public offering on the Aquis Exchange in April 2025, where it went on to become the UK’s best-performing equity that year.

Founded in 2009 by chief executive Andrew Webley, The Smarter Web Company began as a web design agency focused on building bespoke, mobile-friendly websites for small and medium-sized businesses. 

In 2025, the firm pivoted toward a bitcoin treasury strategy, deploying capital into bitcoin as what it describes as “digital capital” on its balance sheet.

Today, The Smarter Web Company holds 2,674 bitcoin, making it the largest UK public company by bitcoin holdings and the 29th largest globally among public firms. 

According to The Smarter Web Company, roughly £221 million of investor capital has been used to acquire bitcoin at an average price of just over $111,000 per coin.

Bitcoin was trading near $77,000 on Tuesday, down significantly from its peak above $120,000 last year.

Speaking at the London Stock Exchange opening ceremony, Webley said the Main Market listing represents the next stage in building a long-term British public company aligned with Bitcoin. “Moving to the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange marks the next significant milestone in that journey,” Webley said. “I am committed to building a British success story that contributes to the UK economy and demonstrates how bitcoin can be used as digital capital.”

Webley also reiterated his ambition for the company to enter the FTSE 250, potentially as early as the third quarterly rebalance of 2026, with longer-term aspirations to eventually reach the FTSE 100.

The United Kingdom’s version of Strategy 

The Smarter Web Company’s strategy has drawn comparisons to U.S.-based firm Strategy, which pioneered the corporate bitcoin treasury model. 

While a growing number of companies have since adopted similar approaches, Webley has argued that volatility is an inherent feature of the strategy rather than a flaw. 

Despite its recent decline from a peak market capitalization of over £1 billion, Webley recently said the company plans to continue accumulating bitcoin regardless of price. The firm spent about £220 million accumulating their bitcoin, while its shares have plunged about 95%. 

Webley argues the strategy is long-term, noting the company has increased its bitcoin holdings per share despite the downturn and plans to seek more institutional funding with a move to the London Stock Exchange’s main market.

This post Bitcoin-Treasury The Smarter Web Company Listed on London Stock Exchange first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Micah Zimmerman.

Bitcoin Magazine

Tether Launches Open-Source Bitcoin Mining Operating System

Tether has open-sourced a new operating system for bitcoin mining, unveiling MiningOS (MOS) as part of a broader push to reduce the industry’s reliance on proprietary, vendor-controlled software.

The stablecoin issuer announced Monday that MOS, a modular and scalable operating system designed to manage, monitor, and automate bitcoin mining operations, is now available as open-source software under the Apache 2.0 license. 

The system was officially unveiled at the 2026 Plan ₿ Forum in San Salvador.

According to Tether, MOS is built to coordinate the complex mix of hardware, power systems, containers, and physical infrastructure that underpin modern bitcoin mining. 

Rather than relying on fragmented software stacks, the operating system treats every component of a mining site as a controllable “worker” within a single operational layer, providing operators with unified visibility across hashrate, energy usage, device health, and site-level infrastructure.

The company said MOS uses a self-hosted, peer-to-peer architecture based on Holepunch protocols, allowing miners to manage operations without relying on centralized services or third-party platforms. 

The system is designed to scale from small home installations running on lightweight hardware to industrial-grade deployments managing hundreds of thousands of machines across multiple locations.

“Mining OS is built to make Bitcoin mining infrastructure more open, modular, and accessible,” said Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino. “Whether it’s a small operator running a handful of machines or a full-scale industrial site, the same operating system can scale without reliance on centralized, third-party software.”

Tether’s Mining SDK announcement

Alongside MOS, Tether also announced the Mining SDK, the framework on which the operating system is built. The Mining SDK is expected to be finalized and released in collaboration with the open-source community in the coming months.

The toolkit is designed to allow developers to build mining software and internal tools without recreating device integrations or operational primitives from scratch, offering ready-made workers, APIs, and UI components.

Tether said the goal of open-sourcing its mining stack is to lower barriers to entry for new miners and remove the “black box” nature of many existing mining setups, where hardware and monitoring tools are tightly coupled to proprietary platforms.

The release places Tether alongside other crypto firms pushing open-source mining infrastructure, including Jack Dorsey’s Block, which has previously backed efforts to decentralize mining tooling and hardware access.

MOS marks another step in Tether’s expansion beyond its core stablecoin business. The company has increasingly positioned itself across mining, payments, and infrastructure, reporting more than $10 billion in net profit in 2025, driven largely by interest income on its reserves.

This post Tether Launches Open-Source Bitcoin Mining Operating System first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Micah Zimmerman.

Bitcoin Magazine

ING Deutschland Opens Retail Access to Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Products

ING Deutschland, one of Germany’s largest retail banks, has begun offering retail clients access to cryptocurrency-linked exchange-traded notes (ETNs) and products, allowing customers to gain exposure to bitcoin and other crypto directly through their existing securities accounts.

According to information published on ING’s website, the products are physically backed exchange-traded instruments issued by established asset managers including 21Shares, Bitwise, and VanEck. 

The instruments track the performance of individual cryptocurrencies and trade on regulated exchanges via ING’s Direct Depot platform, which is typically used for stocks, ETFs, and mutual funds.

The bank said the bitcoin offering is intended to lower barriers to entry for crypto investing by integrating digital asset exposure into familiar banking infrastructure. 

Clients do not need to set up third-party crypto exchanges, manage private keys, or operate self-custody wallets, as custody and execution are handled within the securities account framework.

“This creates another particularly low-threshold access to crypto investments via exchange-traded products,” said Martijn Rozemuller, CEO of VanEck Europe, in a translated press release. “Many investors want a solution that fits into existing depot structures and at the same time convinces them with transparent costs. That’s exactly what this partnership stands for.”

ING noted that the bitcoin and crypto ETNs receive the same tax treatment in Germany as directly held cryptocurrencies. Under current German tax rules, capital gains on crypto assets may be exempt if the position is held for more than one year, potentially making the products attractive to long-term investors.

Despite the expanded access, the bank emphasized that the products carry substantial risks. ING warned of “extreme” price volatility, the possibility of total loss in the event of issuer insolvency, liquidity risks, market manipulation, and ongoing regulatory uncertainty surrounding digital assets.

In educational materials published alongside the launch, ING took a notably cautious stance on the asset class itself.

 “Cryptocurrencies are speculative products that have no intrinsic value,” the bank stated, adding that crypto prices are “strongly dependent on psychological effects,” which also influence exchange-traded crypto products.

German banks are embracing bitcoin

Germany’s major banking groups are moving to bring crypto trading into the regulated retail banking system. DZ Bank has secured MiCAR approval and will roll out its “meinKrypto” platform across cooperative banks, allowing customers to trade and custody Bitcoin and other digital assets directly within existing banking apps, while also joining a consortium developing a regulated euro stablecoin. 

In parallel, the Sparkassen-Finanzgruppe plans to launch Bitcoin and crypto trading for private customers by summer 2026, with technical support from DekaBank, marking a reversal from its earlier skepticism toward digital assets. 

This post ING Deutschland Opens Retail Access to Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Products first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Micah Zimmerman.

Bitcoin is a $1.5 trillion prize pool secured by nothing more than numbers, private keys, generated by math, that unlock wallets holding real money.

That’s the seductive idea behind Keys.lol: a site that spits out batches of Bitcoin private keys and their corresponding addresses, like an infinite roll of digital lottery tickets.

Refresh the page, and you get another set. Refresh again, and you get another.

Somewhere in that endless stream is a key that matches a wallet with a balance, maybe even one holding a life-changing amount.

This is the only lottery where the game is real, and the jackpot exists, yet the odds are so extreme that “never” is the practical outcome.

The keyspace is so vast that even checking billions of addresses at a time doesn’t meaningfully move the needle; the chance of landing on a funded wallet is so close to zero that it effectively disappears.

Keys.lol feels like a shortcut to fortune, but what it actually demonstrates is the opposite: why Bitcoin wallets are secure, and why brute-force “guessing” isn’t a threat model so much as a lesson in how big numbers can get.

Related Reading

Winning lottery 9x in a row easier than breaching Bitcoin's security

Bitcoin has a better chance of returns within a year than winning the lottery.

Nov 7, 2022 · Soumen Datta

How to play the free Bitcoin lottery

Open the website. Hit refresh. Watch it spit out a new batch of 90 Bitcoin private keys and addresses, like scratchcards scrolling past at high speed.

It feels like a loophole in reality: if you can generate enough keys, fast enough, surely you’ll eventually land on one that already controls real BTC.

That temptation is exactly what Keys.lol is built to dramatize. The homepage claims “every Bitcoin private key” is on the site and encourages you to “try your luck.”

But the punchline is mathematical: yes, you can play, and no, you can’t win, at least not in any practical sense.

I'm not trying to advertise how to “hack Bitcoin.” It’s the opposite: a fun, slightly mind-melting way to understand why Bitcoin wallets are secure.

The space of possible keys and addresses is so large that “randomly guessing” is effectively impossible.

An unintended side effect is that refreshing for long enough may well cure your gambling addiction, too. The fun goes from “but what if I hit one?” to “yeah, this is impossible” pretty quickly.

Keys.lol turns keyspace into a game

Keys.lol doesn’t store a literal database of keys (that would be physically impossible). It generates keys procedurally on the fly based on a page number.

That means it can display deterministic slices of the keyspace without ever saving them.

In other words: it’s not a vault of stolen secrets. It’s a number generator with a balance checker and a casino vibe.

And if you’re refreshing random batches, say 90 addresses at a time, you’re essentially buying free lottery tickets against the entire Bitcoin address universe.

The math behind the impossible odds

A Bitcoin private key is basically a number in an astronomically large range. Keys.lol itself describes it as between 1 and (2^256).

But for this “lottery,” the practical target is addresses with a non-zero balance.

As of February 2026, there are 58 million BTC addresses with a non-zero balance. Let’s use that as the “number of winning tickets.”

Now compare it to the size of the space you’re sampling from.

A standard way to think about Bitcoin addresses is that they’re derived via hashing to a 160-bit value.

• (2^160) possible address-hash outcomes
• That’s about 1.46 × 10^48 possible destinations for “where BTC could be,” in address-space terms

Even if tens of millions are funded, that’s still a rounding error against 10^48.

So what are the odds per refresh?

If you sample addresses uniformly at random from the full space, the probability a single random address is one of the 58,000,000 non-zero ones is:

• p = 58,000,000 / 2^160 ≈ 3.97 × 10^-41

If you check 90 addresses in one go, your chance of finding at least one non-zero balance becomes:

• P(≥ 1) ≈ 90p ≈ 3.57 × 10^-39

That’s roughly:

• 1 in (2.8 × 10^38)

Written out, that’s:

1 in 280,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 (“280 undecillion.”)

A human way to feel “1 in 2.8×10^38”

Try this mental model:

Imagine you could do one billion refreshes per second (and each refresh checks 90 addresses).

The expected time to hit just one non-zero address would still be on the order of 10^12 years.

The age of the universe is ~10^10 years.

That’s about 10^12 times the age of the universe, or a trillion universe-lifetimes just to find a single funded address.

So you’re not “unlikely” to win. You’re functionally guaranteed not to on any timescale that matters.

How much harder than winning the lottery?

The EuroMillions jackpot odds are about 1 in 139,838,160; the US Powerball odds are 1 in 292,201,338.

Keys.lol's “90-address refresh finds a funded wallet” odds are about 1 in (2.8 × 10^38).

So EuroMillions is roughly:

• (2.8 × 10^38) / (1.398 × 10^8) ≈ 2 × 10^30

That’s about two nonillion times more likely than your refresh ever finding a non-zero address.

Put differently: you’d have a better chance of winning EuroMillions again and again and again than hitting a funded BTC address by random key generation.

Related Reading

When immortal AIs start saving in Bitcoin forever, what happens to BTC built for humans?

Bitcoin mathematics assume users eventually die, and the network isn’t ready for an owner that never sells.

Dec 8, 2025 · Liam 'Akiba' Wright

This is why Bitcoin wallets are secure

The entire security model of Bitcoin ownership is built on one simple idea:

Even if everyone on Earth used every computer they could possibly build, guessing someone else’s private key is still computationally and probabilistically out of reach.

Keys.lol is compelling because it makes the impossible feel tangible. You’re looking at real-looking keys and real-looking addresses and hoping for a miracle.

But Bitcoin doesn’t rely on secrecy through obscurity. It relies on the sheer scale of the keyspace.

The “attack” you’re simulating, random guessing, isn’t a threat model. It’s a lesson in large numbers.

If you ever “hit” a funded key, it’s theft, not a free jackpot

There’s a reason this “free Bitcoin lottery” is such a useful teaching tool: it exposes the difference between possible in theory and permissible in real life.

If you were to generate a private key that corresponds to a wallet with funds, and then try to “sweep” those coins, you wouldn’t be claiming abandoned treasure.

You’d be taking assets you don’t own, without consent. In plain terms: it’s theft.

Even framing it as “luck” doesn’t change what’s happening. The private key is simply the credential that proves control.

Discovering someone else’s credentials doesn’t grant you ownership any more than finding a stranger’s bank card PIN would.

And there’s a second, subtler risk: trying to turn this into a get-rich scheme can expose you to legal consequences.

Whether it’s prosecuted as theft, fraud, unauthorized access, or another offense depends on the jurisdiction. But the core point is the same: “I guessed it” is not a defense, and “finders keepers” doesn’t apply to digital property.

So yes, Keys.lol is a fascinating window into Bitcoin’s security model. But the only “win condition” here is understanding the math, not trying to cash out someone else’s balance.

“Mathematically never” is still annoying for bots, so Keys.lol adds friction anyway

Even though the odds of finding a funded wallet are so tiny they round to zero for any practical human timeline, Keys.lol still throws up bot protection.

Click “Random page” too aggressively, and you can be redirected to an “Are you human?” captcha.

In other words: even the site itself assumes someone, somewhere, will try to automate refreshes at scale, and it actively tries to slow that down.

That doesn’t make Bitcoin “more secure” (the security comes from the size of the keyspace). But it does make this particular game harder to industrialize.

It’s a reminder that brute-force behavior is expected, and throttled, even when the underlying math already makes success effectively impossible.

The “expected reward” of a refresh (and why the fun math is misleading)

Let’s do some back-of-the-napkin maths anyway.

The average non-zero wallet holds about 0.126 BTC, and we can value that at roughly $9,852 today, then the arithmetic is:

• $9,852 ÷ 58,000,000 ≈ $0.0001362069
• That’s about $1 per 9,852 in this simplified framing.

But here’s the catch: that calculation quietly assumes each refresh is picking from the set of funded wallets.

In reality, you’re sampling from the full address universe. The microscopic part is the chance of landing on any of those 58 million non-zero addresses at all.

Once you include that probability, the true expected value collapses to essentially zero.

Using today’s BTC price (~$78,195), 0.126 BTC is about $9,852.

But the expected value per 90-address refresh is still only about:

• $3.5 × 10^-35 per refresh

That’s the kind of number where “expected $1” would require roughly 2.8 × 10^34 refreshes on average.

Bitcoin’s market cap is currently around $1.5T on major trackers (it fluctuates daily).

That headline number is what makes the “free lottery” feel so seductive: a giant pool of value, sitting behind “just a number.”

But the lock is better than anything physical, it is built on cold, hard math.

Play the lottery on the first page of Bitcoin private and public keys.

The post The trillion dollar Bitcoin lottery you can play now for free – but will never win appeared first on CryptoSlate.

Bitcoin fell around 8% on Feb. 3, briefly losing the $73,000 level.

A quick rebound took prices to $74,500 as of press time, dampening the intraday correction to 5.8%. The decline marks the lowest price point in the President Donald Trump administration and the weakest level since the November 2024 Presidential Election.

The selloff pushed Bitcoin as low as its March 2024 all-time high of $73,500, a level that held through the early stages of the decline but ultimately gave way under sustained selling pressure.

The move revived a cluster of support zones that traders have monitored as critical technical thresholds for nearly a year.

Macro risk-off drives crypto lower

The crypto weakness is linked to broad risk-off sentiment across markets, sparked by Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve chair.

Warsh's selection stoked concerns about a more hawkish policy mix and tighter financial conditions, pressures that historically weigh on high-beta assets, including cryptocurrencies. A stronger dollar, which typically accompanies such expectations, compounds the headwind for digital assets. The current dollar weakness, however, makes this decline even more painful.

Microsoft's Azure growth disappointment added to the selling pressure, souring broader risk sentiment and triggering cross-asset contagion.

The AI trade wobble demonstrated how crypto remains vulnerable to spillover effects from growth-sensitive technology sectors, particularly when positioning is stretched and liquidity is thin.

Leverage unwind amplifies decline

CoinGlass data shows over $2.5 billion in Bitcoin liquidations in recent days, turning what began as a macro-driven selloff into a cascade of forced selling.

Thin weekend liquidity exacerbated the selloff that began at $84,000 on Saturday, according to a Bitfinex note.

The combination of macro triggers and leverage unwinding created conditions in which relatively modest initial selling pressure could force far larger moves, as stop-losses and margin calls compounded the decline.

Additionally, institutional flows in 2026 have been uneven.

Exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows, often followed by outflows during volatility episodes, suggest tactical rebalancing rather than aggressive dip-buying, leaving prices exposed as liquidation pressure accelerates.

The absence of consistent institutional demand meant there was no meaningful buffer when forced selling began.

Galaxy Digital research also noted that near-term catalysts appear scarce, with diminished odds of legislative progress on market structure acting as a narrative headwind.

Without clear positive drivers on the horizon, traders lack the conviction to step in aggressively during drawdowns.

Critical support and resistance levels

Bitcoin now trades within a tightly watched technical range.

The $73,500 level from 2024 and the Feb. 3 intraday low of $72,945 form the immediate support zone.

IG Markets identifies a broader support band between $73,581 and $76,703, an area associated with prior cycle highs and 2025 lows that has been tested multiple times over the past year.

CryptoSlate also identified several support and resistance levels for 2026 in Akiba's bear market analysis.

Related Reading

Akiba's medium term $49k Bitcoin bear thesis – why this winter will be the shortest yet

Shorter bears, sharper floors: why $49k could print early, and what would flip the tape.

Nov 24, 2025 · Liam 'Akiba' Wright

A daily close below this band would increase the probability of follow-through selling toward the next support cluster between $72,757 and $71,725. If that zone fails to hold, the July 2024 peak of around $70,041 becomes the next major downside waypoint.

On the resistance side, Bitcoin's reclamation of the 2024 all-time high of $73,500 indicates that buyers are willing to defend the recent breakdown level. The April 2025 trough zone around $74,508 now acts as resistance after previously serving as support.

Above that, minor resistance sits at $78,300, with the November 2025 low of $80,620 and the psychological $80,000 level forming the next meaningful barrier.

Related Reading

I predicted Bitcoin falling to $49k this year and January delivered some very concerning red flags

Bitcoin heading to $49k? The “dip” looks worse when the plumbing is already breaking - Akiba's 2026 bear thesis update

Jan 30, 2026 · Liam 'Akiba' Wright

Distinguishing bounce from recovery

A single-day rebound does not constitute a durable bottom.

Historical patterns suggest that sustainable recoveries typically require at least two conditions: repeated daily closes above the $74,500 level, converting the April 2025 reference zone from resistance to support, and evidence that liquidation pressure has faded following the $2.56 billion forced-selling wave.

Without these confirmations, rallies risk becoming dead-cat bounces into overhead resistance as sellers use strength to exit positions.

ETF flows must stabilize beyond isolated green days, consistent with the tactical rather than aggressive institutional behavior.

Two near-term scenarios

If Bitcoin holds the $73,000 to $73,445 support zone and reclaims $74,500, the path of least resistance becomes a grind toward $78,300, then the $80,000 to $80,620 range.

This scenario requires both technical follow-through and the absence of new macroeconomic headwinds.

Alternatively, a daily close below the $73,581 lower band increases the odds of continuation selling into the $72,757 to $71,725 zone, with the $70,000 level as the next major psychological and technical waypoint.

This scenario becomes more likely if liquidation pressure remains elevated or if macro conditions deteriorate further.

Bitcoin's decline below its 2024 all-time high after nearly a year of holding that level as support constitutes a technical breakdown, shifting the burden of proof to buyers.

The combination of macro risk-off sentiment, leverage unwinding, and tactical institutional flows created conditions in which support levels that had held for months gave way within hours.

The post Bitcoin in freefall hitting lowest price since Trump took office as leverage turns a macro wobble into a brutal cascade appeared first on CryptoSlate.

The euphoria of October’s record highs has evaporated, leaving the industrial backbone of the Bitcoin network facing a brutal reality check.

According to CryptoSlate's data, Bitcoin is currently trading near $78,000, a level that represents a punishing decline of more than 38% from its all-time high of over $126,000 just four months ago.

While casual observers might see a standard market correction, the view from inside the mines is far more dire. The steep drop in the flagship digital asset's price has collided with stubbornly high network difficulty and rising energy costs to create a perfect storm for operators.

Analytics firm CryptoQuant recently described miners as “extremely underpaid,” given the current combination of depressed prices and difficulty, with its profit-and-loss sustainability index slumping to 21. That is the lowest reading since late 2024.

Notably, the financial strain is already causing machines to go offline, resulting in Bitcoin’s total hashrate declining by about 12% since last November, the steepest drawdown since the China mining ban in 2021. This has left the network at its weakest level since September 2025.

For a system that sells itself as the most secure computer network in the world, this is more than just a bear-market story. It is a stress test of Bitcoin’s security model at a moment when miners have better-paying alternatives than ever before.

Bitcoin miners' capitulation maths

Bitcoin’s security relies on a simple incentive structure in which the network pays a fixed block subsidy plus transaction fees to whoever solves the next block.

When prices were above $126,000 in October, the “security budget” was sufficient to cover inefficiencies. However, the margin for error has vanished as prices have crashed under $80,000.

New figures from the mining pool f2pool illustrate how severe the revenue compression has become.

On its Feb. 2 hardware electricity cost dashboard, the pool estimates Bitcoin’s price at around $76,176, network hashrate at near 890 exahashes per second (EH/s), and daily revenue at about $0.034 per terahash for miners paying $0.06 per kilowatt-hour.

To put that in perspective, Luxor Technology’s Hashrate Index recorded spot hashprice near $39 per petahash per second (PH/s) per day only a few months prior.

That figure was already thin by historical standards before falling toward an all-time low of around $35 as of press time.

The current f2pool figure of $0.034 per terahash, equivalent to $34 per PH/s, confirms that miners are operating at the historical floor.

When those economics are mapped onto individual machines, it becomes clear why hashrate is falling.

At a reference Bitcoin price of $75,000 and the same six-cent power cost, electricity accounts for about 52% of revenue for Bitmain’s newest Antminer S21 XP Hydro units, which combine roughly 473 TH/s of hashpower with 5,676 watts of draw. Those are the best numbers available.

As the efficiency curve worsens, the math turns red. Mid-generation rigs, such as an Antminer S19 XP or an Avalon A1466i, exhibit electricity cost rates of approximately 92%-100% at that price point.

Meanwhile, older or less efficient models, including the Avalon A1366, Whatsminer M50S, and S19 Pro lines, show electricity cost rates ranging from approximately 109% to 162%.

In plain English, this means that at $75,000 Bitcoin and a mainstream power tariff, vast fleets of hardware are mining at a cash loss before even accounting for debt, hosting fees, or general expenses.

The AI escape hatch

This current revenue crash differs from previous crypto winters because the miners' distressed assets, like power contracts and grid connections, have a new, deep-pocketed suitor.

The same infrastructure that enables Bitcoin mining is precisely what hyperscale AI compute requires. And unlike the struggling Bitcoin network, AI infrastructure providers are willing to pay up.

The former mining operation CoreWeave has become emblematic of this shift. It pivoted from crypto to become a specialist “neocloud” for AI workloads and recently secured a $2 billion equity investment from Nvidia to accelerate its data center buildout.

In 2025, it sought to acquire miner Core Scientific in a multibillion-dollar deal, explicitly framing miners’ sites and power contracts as prime real estate for GPUs rather than ASICs.

Other public Bitcoin miners have taken the hint and are pivoting hard towards AI. For example, Canadian operator Hut 8 recently signed a 15-year, 245-megawatt AI data center lease at its River Bend campus, with a stated contract value of approximately $7 billion.

This deal effectively locks in long-term economics that differ markedly from the volatility of mining rewards.

For shareholders, these pivots offer a rational exit from the bleeding caused by the 30% price drop. They can swap cyclical Bitcoin revenues for contracted AI cash flows that investors currently value at a premium.

For the Bitcoin network, however, this raises a more difficult question: what happens when a component of its security infrastructure discovers a business that offers higher compensation?

Bitcoin's network security budget under siege

Jeff Feng, co-founder of Sei Labs, called the current period “the biggest bitcoin miner capitulation since 2021,” arguing that large miners pivoting to AI compute are amplifying the drawdown.

The key difference from prior cycles is that some of this hash isn’t just powering down until the price recovers. It is being reallocated permanently.

Once a 245 MW site is fully re-racked for AI under a long-term lease, that power is, in practice, unavailable for future hashrate expansion.

Make no mistake, Bitcoin remains extremely secure in absolute terms. Even after recent declines, the cost of amassing sufficient hashpower to attack the network remains immense.

However, the concern is about direction and composition rather than immediate collapse. A sustained decline in hashrate lowers the marginal cost of attacking.

With less honest hash online, it takes fewer resources to acquire a disruptive share of the network’s compute, whether through renting capacity or building it outright.

This trend also narrows the base of stakeholders paid to defend the chain. If older, higher-cost operators exit and only a handful of ultra-efficient miners remain profitable, control over block production becomes increasingly centralized.

This creates a fragility that is masked by the headline hashrate numbers.

So, CryptoQuant’s “extremely underpaid” label is effectively a warning that, at today’s block rewards and fees, a meaningful slice of industrial hash is operating on thin or negative margins.

It serves as a forward indicator of how robust the network’s security budget really is relative to competing uses of capital and electricity.

How will Bitcoin miners survive?

From here, the miner squeeze could influence Bitcoin’s evolution in several distinct ways.

One path is quiet consolidation. Difficulty resets, the most efficient operators capture a larger share of block production, and hashrate grows more slowly than in previous cycles but remains large enough that few outside specialists notice.

For investors, the primary effect is volatility, as each market drawdown compresses a narrower group of miners, thereby increasing their selling and hedging behavior.

Another path would accelerate Bitcoin's transition to fee-driven security faster than the halving schedule alone implies. If subsidies remain light relative to AI returns, the ecosystem may have to rely more on transaction fees to keep miners fully engaged.

That could mean greater focus on high-value settlement at the base layer, more activity on second-layer systems, and a wider acceptance that block space is a scarce resource rather than a cheap commodity.

A third, more speculative path would see external backstops become explicit. This would mean that the same institutions that normalized spot Bitcoin ETFs might eventually view the security budget as they view bank capital ratios, as something that can require deliberate support.

That could take the form of higher fees for certain transaction classes, industry-funded incentives for miners, or scrutiny of AI conversions that materially dent hashrate in key regions.

Notably, none of those outcomes would require a break with Bitcoin’s core design. All involve the industry deciding, in a more crowded energy market, how much it is prepared to pay to keep hash on the network rather than in GPU clusters.

At present, the f2pool dashboard provides a snapshot of that negotiation. A system with about 890 exahashes per second of compute and a price of approximately $76,000 is paying roughly 3.5 cents per terahash per day for its security.

Whether future energy investments accept that rate or demand something closer to AI economics will determine how the mining market ultimately pivots.

The post Bitcoin mining revenue hits historic low as infrastructure is sold to AI giants permanently altering the network’s security appeared first on CryptoSlate.

Bitcoin supply guide: cost-basis bands, miner stress, and ETF flow signals

Bitcoin is currently trading outside a $93,000–$110,000 cost-basis band that Glassnode frames as an “overhead supply” zone.

That setup puts the next quarter’s supply story on miner cash flow and holder behavior rather than the issuance schedule. According to Glassnode’s Week On-chain W02 2026, the Short-Term Holder (STH) cost basis sits near $98,300.

That level often becomes a reference point for whether recent buyers add exposure or distribute into rebounds.

At the same time, mining markets are pricing a lean profitability regime.

The Hashrate Index roundup dated Jan. 26, 2026 put the six-month hashprice forward curve at about $33.25 per PH/s per day (about 0.00041 BTC), below the zone it has described as breakeven for many miners ($39.50) depending on operating costs and machine types.

Related CryptoSlate context: miner-stress narratives often hinge on the same profitability/difficulty loop described in Bitcoin’s hashrate continues to fall as the price spike doesn’t convince miners to turn machines back on.

This quarter’s additional variable is whether ETF flows act as a sink for tradable supply or a release valve.

SoSoValue data recorded $681 million in net outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs in the first full trading week of 2026, in a risk-off setup tied to rate expectations and macro headlines. Last week, net flows reached -$1.3 billion, the worst week since May 2025.

For additional CryptoSlate reporting context on that same early-2026 flow regime, see Bitcoin breaking $126,000 has clear 3 year pathway but a brutal $1.3 billion exodus changes everything today.

Related Reading

Bitcoin breaking $126,000 has clear 3 year pathway but a brutal $1.3 billion exodus changes everything today

As the Fed prepares its next major policy move, the window for a 2026 breakout is slamming shut for investors.

Jan 26, 2026 · Liam 'Akiba' Wright

Key takeaways

• Bitcoin’s issuance schedule is fixed by the protocol, with a 21 million cap and reward halvings every 210,000 blocks. Near-term “supply shocks” tend to come from tradable float and incentives, according to Blockchain.com’s supply chart.
• Glassnode places current overhead supply between $93,000 and $110,000, with the STH cost basis around $98,300. That range becomes a demand-absorption test for the quarter, according to Glassnode W02 2026.
• Hashrate and difficulty already adjusted to stress, with the 7-day SMA hashrate moving from 1,003 EH/s to 966 EH/s and difficulty falling 3.28% to 141.67T on Jan. 22, according to Hashrate Index (Jan. 26, 2026). For background, see Bitcoin hashrate hits new high of 943 EH/s as difficulty adjusted down 0.45%.
• Mining forwards implying roughly $39.50/PH/s/day over six months keeps attention on miner treasury management and shutdown risk. “Breakeven” depends on opex and fleet efficiency, according to Hashrate Index.
• ETF flow direction remains a swing factor after such a terrible month to start the year, with $1 billion in net outflows.

Who this is for

• Long-term allocators tracking cohort supply, cost-basis bands, and maturation dynamics
• Swing traders focused on the STH cost basis and overhead supply reactions
• Institutional desks monitoring ETF flow regimes and miner-driven liquidity
• Mining and infra operators managing hashprice exposure and difficulty timing

What to watch this quarter

• Price behavior around the STH cost basis near $98,300 and regaining its place inside the $93,000–$110,000 overhead band (Glassnode W02 2026)
• Six-month hashprice expectations recovering to near $39.50/PH/s/day and spot hashprice divergence from the curve (Hashrate Index)
• Difficulty adjustment cadence following the Jan. 22, 3.28% drop to 141.67T (Hashrate Index).
• Venue flow mix, including Glassnode’s note that Binance and aggregate exchange flows shifted into buy-dominant regimes while Coinbase sell pressure eased (Glassnode W02 2026)
• Weekly spot Bitcoin ETF net flows after $1.3 billion outflows last week.

Issuance basics + halving (what is fixed vs what is variable)

Bitcoin’s total supply path is deterministic at the protocol layer, with a maximum of 21 million BTC and block-subsidy halvings every 210,000 blocks.

That constraint matters for long-horizon valuation and for quarter-to-quarter issuance math. New supply enters on a schedule the market can model.

The more immediate question for the next quarter is market-available supply.

That means the inventory that can reach spot venues through miner sales, holder distribution, and ETF creations or redemptions. This is where “supply shocks” often form, since the issuance curve is known while liquidity decisions are conditional.

Most quarter-scale volatility maps to the second.

Miner economics & sell pressure (why hashprice is the live supply lever)

Mining acts as an elastic supply lever because miner BTC sales are one of the few structural sources of recurring distribution.

That elasticity was visible in late January. Hashrate Index reported the 7-day SMA hashrate fell from 1,003 EH/s to 966 EH/s, and network difficulty adjusted down 3.28% to 141.67T on Jan. 22.

Forward markets also imply constrained miner margins.

The same roundup reported the hashprice forward curve pricing an average of about $33.25 per PH/s per day over the next six months. Hashrate Index has separately described $39–$40/PH/s/day as near breakeven for many miners, while stressing it varies by operating costs and machine model.

A forward-looking frame for this quarter uses three conditional paths grounded in those data points:

• Near-breakeven grind: If hashprice recovers near the forward-implied ~$33.25/PH/s/day, higher-cost fleets face tighter treasury conditions.
• That can translate into periodic hashrate dips and episodic spot selling to fund operations, according to Hashrate Index.
• Difficulty-driven relief: If hashrate weakens further, subsequent difficulty reductions can lift revenue per unit hash even with flat BTC price.
• That reduces forced selling at the margin, as the Jan. 22 adjustment illustrates.
• Macro-driven compression: If a broader risk-off move pressures BTC price while hashprice sits near breakeven, shutdowns can accelerate.
• That feeds the same difficulty-relief loop with uncertain timing.

Miner balance sheet policy can shift realized sell pressure within a quarter.

Related CryptoSlate miner-stress framing: Bitcoin faces potential miner capitulation as hash rate continues to drop.

Related Reading

Bitcoin's hashrate continues to fall as the price spike doesn't convince miners to turn machines back on

Even amid a rally Bitcoin miners are bleeding cash as this critical profit metric hits a level that forces massive shutdowns.

Jan 16, 2026 · Liam 'Akiba' Wright

Long-term vs short-term holders (where overhead supply actually comes from)

Glassnode’s current map frames the supply overhang as a cost-basis band rather than a single price.

In Week On-chain W02 2026, it described the market as testing supply spanning approximately $93,000–$110,000, while placing the STH cost basis at $98,300.

For this quarter, that framing matters because it defines where prior buyers may use rallies to exit.

It also defines where new demand must absorb inventory to avoid renewed distribution.

Holder behavior has softened versus late 2025 without flipping into accumulation.

Glassnode said Long-Term Holder (LTH) supply continues to trend lower, while the rate of decline slowed materially compared with the distribution seen throughout Q3 and Q4 2025. It also put LTH net realized profit near 12.8k BTC per week, down from cycle peaks above 100k BTC per week.

The regime-change condition Glassnode identifies for a more durable rally is a shift where maturation supply outpaces LTH spending.

That would push LTH supply higher. In quarter terms, the overhead band can clear only if selling pressure decelerates faster than new and returning demand.

One technical caveat matters when readers compare dashboards.

Glassnode’s supply endpoints do not treat 155 days as a hard cutoff. Its cohorts use a logistic weighting centered at 155 days with a 10-day transition width.

Common myths (supply narratives that fail under measurement)

• Myth: The halving creates immediate scarcity in tradable supply. Issuance changes are block-based and known, while quarter-scale supply pressure is often driven by miner profitability and holder distribution decisions.
• Myth: 155 days is a strict boundary for LTH classification. Glassnode’s supply cohorts use a logistic weighting centered at 155 days with a 10-day transition width, which affects interpretation near inflection points.
• Myth: Miner capitulation is a single event. The hashrate and difficulty system can ratchet down and then normalize profitability per unit hash, as seen in the Jan. 22 difficulty reduction following a hashrate decline.

Metrics dashboard (the minimum set to monitor for the next 6 months)

Red flags & invalidation

• Any claim that exchange balances are “down X% recently” without a current-dated dataset should be treated as invalid.
• “Breakeven hashprice” should remain conditional on opex and hardware, since Hashrate Index frames $39–$40/PH/s/day as near breakeven for many miners depending on those inputs.

Action checklist, monitoring routine

• Weekly: Record ETF net flow sign and magnitude after the -$681 million outflow week, using SoSoValue-linked reporting for comparability.
• Each difficulty epoch: Track whether difficulty continues to fall after Jan. 22’s 3.28% reduction, and compare with hashrate direction for miner stress context.
• Daily/rolling: Compare spot hashprice to the six-month forward average near $33.25/PH/s/day to gauge whether miners face tightening or relief.
• Regime check: Track whether LTH supply remains net declining or turns up under Glassnode’s “maturation exceeds spending” condition.
• Price context: Observe market reactions around $98,300 and within $93,000–$110,000, since those levels map to STH and overhead supply cost basis in the current Glassnode framing.

Those inputs should be tied back to the fixed Bitcoin issuance schedule.

The post Bitcoin supply guide: When holders sell, miners strain, and ETFs add pressure appeared first on CryptoSlate.

The United States factory engine just delivered its loudest “risk on” signal in years, and it is landing at a brutally awkward time for Bitcoin.

On Feb. 2, Howard Lutnick, the United States Secretary of Commerce, announced that:

“The United States has delivered manufacturing expansion, all thanks to President Trump's trade policies.”

This announcement followed the Institute for Supply Management's report that the Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.6 from 47.9 in January. This ended a year-long stretch of contraction and marked the strongest reading since mid-2022.

According to the reading, new orders surged to 57.1, production climbed to 55.9, and backlogs expanded to 51.6. Customers’ inventories fell to 38.7, which is the “too low” zone that often foreshadows restocking and additional factory output.

Related Reading

Bitcoin faces a violent repricing Monday if this specific supply-chain metric proves the bond market right

Monday’s PMI report is the first real macro gut-check of 2026. For Bitcoin, the only question is whether it reignites inflation fear.

Jan 3, 2026 · Andjela Radmilac

That mix, recovering demand and lean inventories, is the kind of setup that can push markets from defensive to opportunistic.

Yet Bitcoin is entering this macro inflection already bruised. BTC is trading around $78,000 after a drawdown of about 38% from its 2025 all-time high near $126,000 and a recent bout of volatility that has soured market sentiment.

In light of this, the question is not whether the PMI print looks strong. The question is whether this PMI surprise loosens financial conditions or convinces investors that the Federal Reserve needs to keep policy restrictive for longer, thereby keeping liquidity tight and speculative assets subdued.

A risk-on signal with an asterisk

A PMI reading above 50 signals expansion, and the January move to 52.6 is large enough that many analysts describe it as the fastest improvement in manufacturing conditions since 2022.

Market analysts noted that the internal composition of the increase exhibited a typical restocking pattern.

According to them, customers had allowed inventories to run down, then start placing new orders, which lifts production, backlogs, and supplier activity.

If that pattern persists for several months, it can support a broader upturn in industrial activity.

The Institute for Supply Management itself still cautioned against drawing a straight line from this one print to a clean recovery.

According to the institute, a meaningful part of the January pop likely reflects post-holiday reordering and front-running of tariff-related price increases. These are forces that can flatter near-term data while borrowing demand from later in the year.

For crypto, that nuance matters. Bitcoin’s genuine wake-up moments tend to require durable macro impulses, not one-month spikes.

A single PMI print will not reprice the entire asset class unless February, March, and beyond confirm the move, ideally with new orders holding in the mid 50s and some evidence that price pressures are cooling.

When stronger growth becomes a headwind

For risk assets, stronger growth can be bullish, unless it implies higher rates for longer.

The Prices index at 59.0 indicates that input costs are still rising at a healthy clip. At the same time, the Federal Reserve is holding its policy rate in the 3.50%-3.75% range and has stressed that future decisions depend on incoming data and ongoing progress in inflation.

If investors interpret “growth is back” as “inflation risk is back”, Treasury yields and the dollar can rise. That tightens financial conditions and tends to weigh on assets that depend on low interest rates and abundant liquidity, including Bitcoin.

In recent years, BTC’s behavior has increasingly resembled that of a high beta equity: it tends to perform best when real yields are falling, credit is easy, and liquidity is improving.

However, it struggles when policy feels tight.

That framing helps explain why Bitcoin has not reacted positively to every strong macro report.

In the current regime, stronger activity can translate into fewer rate cuts or delayed cuts, and that can blunt the “risk on” impulse that would otherwise feed into crypto.

‘Bitcoin is not the economy'

Within the crypto community, the recent PMI surge has reignited a long-running debate about if the PMI rating signals an imminent rally.

Andre Dagosch, Bitwise's Europe head of research, has suggested that it is naive to ignore the information embedded in the recent precious metals rally and the reflation signals coming from ISM. His point is that similar PMI reversals in 2013, 2016, and 2020 lined up with some of Bitcoin’s most powerful bull runs.

This view is also echoed by Joe Burnett, vice president of Bitcoin strategies at Strive Asset Management, who noted that this latest move ended 26 consecutive months of contraction and that previous breakouts above 50 have often been key turning points for BTC.

However, others are challenging this bullish thesis.

Benjamin Cowen, the founder of ITC Crypto, pointed out that treating the ISM as a directional compass for Bitcoin can be dangerous.

His preferred case study is 2014 and 2015. In January 2014, the ISM stood at about 52.5, while BTC traded near $737. By December 2014, the ISM had climbed to about 55.7, yet Bitcoin had fallen to roughly $302.

In January 2015, ISM was near 54.0, with BTC around $322. By the end of that year, ISM had slipped to roughly 48.8, while Bitcoin had risen to about $429.

According to him, anyone who used the ISM to predict Bitcoin’s direction in those years would have been wrong twice. When the ISM increased in 2014, BTC declined. When the ISM went down in 2015, BTC went up.

Cowen’s argument is that a similar divergence is entirely possible in 2026. The index was 52.5 in January 2014 and 52.6 in January 2026, indicating that the levels are nearly identical.

He sees a realistic path in which ISM rises through 2026 while Bitcoin posts a red year, just as it did more than a decade ago.

Underwater in the regulated wrapper

Cowen's argument is worth considering because Bitcoin is no longer merely an offshore trading instrument; it now appears in US spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) held in brokerage and retirement accounts.

These 12-listed products hold around 1.29 million BTC, about 6.5% of the circulating supply, and attracted approximately $62 billion in net inflows at their peak.

Alex Thorn, Galaxy Digital's Head of Research, posited that the latest drawdown brought BTC's price about 7% to 10% below the average ETF creation cost, which he estimates at $84,000 to $90,200.

In dollar terms, ETF investors are holding unrealized losses of approximately $7 billion.

Unlike early self-custody holders, this cohort comprises advisers and institutional allocators who are subject to portfolio rules and scrutiny by risk committees. A position that is down 30% to 40% within a regulated wrapper necessitates difficult decisions at quarter-end.

Notably, the ETF flows already reflect that pressure. January was the third-worst month on record for US spot Bitcoin ETFs, with roughly $1.6 billion in net outflows, according to Coinperps data.

At the same time, on-chain data suggest a “supply gap” in the $70,000–$80,000 range, where relatively few coins have last changed hands, and that a large share of recent selling has come from cohorts that bought near the highs above $111,000.

Realized price and the 200-week moving average, two long-watched cycle indicators, cluster in the high-$50,000s. Historically, those levels have marked strong entry points, but they are also approximately 20%–25% below today’s prices.

That is the tension the ISM breakout walks into.

On the one hand, macro strategists like Raoul Pal argue that expansionary PMI readings are a “necessary condition” for sustained crypto strength, especially when paired with rising liquidity.

On the other hand, the actual holders of the ETF-era market are staring at red P&Ls and liquidity that, for now, is flowing the wrong way.

What next for Bitcoin?

The real test is what happens if those two stories stay out of sync. Imagine a year in which ISM marches higher, subindices stay strong, and metals continue to trade like a reflation hedge while Bitcoin grinds toward its realized price and 200-week moving average in the high-$50,000s.

For ETF issuers, this would mean marketing a macro-hedge product that has underperformed both the S&P 500 and the commodities it was intended to complement.

They would have to explain to advisers why “debasement hedge” and “digital gold” narratives haven’t delivered in a period of real-world stress and reflation.

Consequently, setting the January ISM data alongside Bitcoin’s current structure presents three broad scenarios that stand out.

Goldilocks restocking, the bullish breakout case

In the bullish case, PMI remains above 50 for several months, New Orders remains around or above 55, and the Prices index begins to drift lower from 59.0 toward the mid-50s. Growth appears solid, but inflation signals are cool enough that the market keeps its expectations for rate cuts in the second half of 2026.

Equities would likely continue to grind higher, credit spreads would stay contained, and real yields could ease.

For Bitcoin, that combination, together with signs that long-term holder selling has slowed and that on-chain levels like the realized price near $56,000 and the 200-week moving average near $58,000 are approaching, could finally reawaken dip buyers.

ETF outflows could stabilize or reverse, volatility could reprice higher from compressed levels, and the overall setup would resemble past risk-on phases that delivered strong BTC rallies.

Hot growth with sticky inflation is a macro headwind for BTC

In the second scenario, PMI remains firm or rises further, while the Prices index remains close to 59.0 or rises. Markets conclude that growth is strong enough to keep the Federal Reserve cautious, and the expected path of rate cuts shifts to lower magnitude or to a later horizon.

In that environment, Treasury yields and the dollar can strengthen, financial conditions can tighten, and the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding, volatile assets rises. Equities might still respond positively for a time, especially in cyclical sectors, but Bitcoin would have to contend with a macroeconomic backdrop that penalizes duration and speculation.

With ETF holders already sitting on losses and risk committees wary, that setup makes it harder for BTC to convert a solid PMI print into a sustained breakout.

A false dawn, the return of risk off

In the third scenario, January’s leap proves transitory. If the boost from post-holiday reordering and tariff hedging fades, and if subsequent PMI readings slide back toward 50 or below, markets could face the worst combination for crypto: growth optimism fades, but leverage has already been flushed and ETF outflows have already occurred.

Bitcoin would still be working through the aftermath of its post 2025 peak, with significant supply last moved between about $80,000 and $92,000 and a clear “ownership gap” between $70,000 and $80,000.

In such a case, the price could drift toward the realized price of around $56,000 and the 200-week moving average near $58,000, levels that have historically marked cycle bottoms, but it would be doing so without support from a convincing macroeconomic growth narrative.

The post Bitcoin trapped below $80,000 as the strongest US factory signal since 2022 threatens further liquidations appeared first on CryptoSlate.

The Incognito Market operator extorted vendors by threatening to publish their transaction histories and crypto addresses.

Nevada's enforcement action comes after Coinbase filed federal lawsuits challenging three other states over prediction market jurisdiction.

Fragile momentum and macro uncertainty are keeping Bitcoin and the broader crypto market at risk of further declines, analysts say.

Authorities say they are reviewing reports of a Bitcoin ransom note tied to the case of Today show host Savannah Guthrie's missing mother.

Some layer-2 networks have made concessions when it comes to decentralization, Buterin said, and shouldn’t be “branded” as extensions of Ethereum.

Nouriel Roubini, the economist famously known as "Dr. Doom," has predicted a "catastrophic end" for the cryptocurrency industry.

Market is ready for a recovery, but it is unlikely to be a long-term retrace.

Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz has dismissed the viral theory that "quantum computing fears" triggered Bitcoin's (BTC) collapse below $74,000..

The Fundstrat bull is defending BitMine (BMNR) after a loud critic claimed he served as "exit liquidity" for Ethereum (ETH) whales.

Crypto news digest: Ripple’s stablecoin nears $1.5B market cap; BlackRock makes largest Bitcoin and Ethereum deposits of 2026; XRP shorts wiped out.

TLDR:

• Kulechov secured the five-story Victorian mansion £2 million below the original broker guidance price. 
• December 2025 saw 40% fewer £5 million-plus London property sales compared to the previous year’s figures. 
• The purchase occurred one week before UK budget changes that introduced higher stamp duty and tax reforms. 
• Notting Hill demonstrated the strongest price growth among prime central London districts in Q4 2025 data.

Stani Kulechov, the Estonian-born founder of decentralized finance protocol Aave, has purchased a five-story Victorian mansion in London’s Notting Hill for £22 million.

The November transaction stands as one of 2025’s most expensive residential deals in the capital’s struggling luxury property sector.

The purchase price came in approximately £2 million below the earlier broker guidance, reflecting broader market conditions.

Major Crypto Figure Enters London Real Estate Market

The sprawling Victorian property spans five floors and provides panoramic views across the Notting Hill neighborhood. Kulechov completed the acquisition in November, approximately one week before the UK government announced its autumn budget.

According to Bloomberg report, “the purchase price was about £2 million below the guidance published earlier by one of the brokers involved in the sale.” A spokesperson for Kulechov declined to provide additional comment on the transaction.

Born in Estonia and raised in Finland, Kulechov established the Aave lending platform in 2017. The protocol has become a cornerstone of decentralized finance infrastructure.

As chief executive officer of parent company Avara, he oversees multiple blockchain initiatives. These projects include the Lens Protocol for social media applications, the GHO stablecoin project, and a cryptocurrency wallet named Family.

The property purchase represents a substantial investment in London real estate at a challenging time for the market. Luxury home sales have declined significantly throughout 2025.

The transaction demonstrates continued confidence in prime central London property from successful crypto entrepreneurs.

The timing of the purchase, just before the budget announcement, proved advantageous. Subsequent tax changes have further dampened market activity.

The acquisition secured a notable discount from the initial asking price, suggesting skilled negotiation in a buyer-friendly environment.

London Luxury Market Faces Sustained Pressure

The high-end London property market has experienced severe headwinds from recent government policy changes. The Labour government implemented stamp duty increases that affect expensive properties.

Additionally, authorities abolished the non-domiciled tax status previously enjoyed by wealthy foreign residents. These measures have significantly reduced transaction volumes in the luxury segment.

December 2025 saw 40% fewer sales of properties priced above £5 million compared to December 2024, according to property researcher LonRes.

Further taxation measures scheduled for implementation in 2028 are expected to maintain downward pressure on activity. The market outlook remains challenging for sellers of premium properties.

West London neighborhoods have emerged as relative bright spots despite broader market weakness. Holland Park and Notting Hill recorded many of 2025’s most significant residential purchases.

According to broker Savills Plc, in the final quarter, Notting Hill “held up strongest” in terms of price growth out of all prime central London districts.

The resilience of select neighborhoods reflects their enduring appeal to international buyers and successful entrepreneurs. Properties offering views and period features continue attracting premium prices.

However, overall transaction volumes remain substantially below historical averages, indicating persistent market challenges ahead.

The post Aave Founder Stani Kulechov Buys £22 Million Notting Hill Mansion appeared first on Blockonomi.

TLDR:

• Moscow Exchange will launch Solana, Ripple, and Tron indexes in 2026 with corresponding futures contracts. 
• New futures will be settlement-only without physical delivery, complying with Bank of Russia requirements. 
• Perpetual futures for Bitcoin and Ethereum are planned as one-day contracts with automatic rollover mechanisms. 
• All cryptocurrency derivative products will remain available exclusively to qualified investors under law.

The Moscow Exchange will launch three cryptocurrency indexes tracking Solana, Ripple, and Tron in 2026. Futures trading based on these indexes will follow the initial launch.

The exchange also plans to introduce perpetual futures for Bitcoin and Ethereum. These developments represent an expansion of the platform’s current crypto derivatives offerings.

Expansion of Cryptocurrency Derivatives Portfolio

Maria Silkina, Chief Manager for the Derivatives Market Product Group, announced the plans during the Investment Hour program on RBC radio.

The exchange currently calculates Bitcoin and Ethereum indexes and offers futures contracts tied to these benchmarks. The new additions will broaden the range of tradable cryptocurrency derivatives available to qualified investors.

“During this year, we will expand pairs. And, probably, among the top names that will definitely be among the first are Solana, Ripple, Tron. Then it depends on how it goes,” Silkina stated.

These cryptocurrencies will be among the first new pairs introduced during 2026. Further expansion will depend on market conditions and trading performance.

Index development precedes futures contract launches on the Moscow Exchange. The platform develops and calculates cryptocurrency indexes according to established methodologies published on its website.

Futures contracts require clearly defined underlying assets with transparent calculation rules. This structured approach ensures regulatory compliance and market transparency.

“We are developing the indices of the Moscow Exchange of cryptocurrencies, we calculate them according to the methodology, they are disclosed on the website. Futures cannot be launched without the underlying asset,” Silkina explained.

Each index must be calculated, published, and verified before corresponding futures contracts become available. She added that futures should always have clear rules for what they are launched for and how they are executed.

Settlement Structure and Future Product Development

All new futures contracts will follow the settlement-only model currently used for Bitcoin and Ethereum futures. The Bank of Russia requires this approach, which excludes physical delivery of underlying cryptocurrency assets.

Traders settle positions in cash based on index values at contract expiration. This structure aligns with Russian regulatory requirements for cryptocurrency derivatives.

“Index futures are now expiring every month. Therefore, the rest of the contracts, which will also be for indices [of cryptocurrencies], they will correspond to the design that has now already been launched for BTC and ETH,” Silkina said.

The design mirrors the existing framework for Bitcoin and Ethereum futures. Contracts will maintain consistent specifications across all cryptocurrency pairs.

Access to these instruments remains restricted to qualified investors under current legislation. The exchange complies with regulatory requirements governing cryptocurrency derivative products.

Only investors meeting specific qualification criteria can trade these contracts. This restriction aims to protect less experienced market participants from complex derivative instruments.

The exchange also considers launching perpetual futures for Bitcoin and Ethereum. “Perpetual futures will be on the same index for which there is now a monthly futures,” Silkina confirmed when asked about Bitcoin and Ethereum perpetual contracts.

These contracts would operate as one-day instruments with automatic rollover mechanisms. The platform plans to gradually introduce options alongside expanded futures offerings.

The post Moscow Exchange to Launch Solana, Ripple, and Tron Crypto Indexes and Futures in 2026 appeared first on Blockonomi.

TLDR:

• MicroStrategy faces a $900 million unrealized loss as Bitcoin trades below its average purchase price of holdings 
• The company’s Bitcoin is not used as collateral, eliminating margin call risks despite current price levels below cost 
• MicroStrategy holds 2.5 years cash runway for obligations, removing pressure to sell Bitcoin during downturn 
• Firm’s $8.24 billion debt matures between 2028-2030, providing flexibility during short-term price volatility 

Bitcoin has fallen beneath MicroStrategy’s average purchase price, creating an unrealized loss of $900 million for the corporate holder.

No Forced Sales Despite Paper Losses

The recent price decline marks a familiar scenario for MicroStrategy and its executive chairman, Michael Saylor. According to Bull Theory, this situation has occurred before during previous market cycles.

During the last bear market, the company’s average cost per Bitcoin was around $30,000. The digital asset subsequently dropped to approximately $16,000, representing a decline exceeding 45% below their cost basis.

MicroStrategy did not liquidate any holdings during that period. The company faced no forced selling pressure despite the substantial paper losses.

Bull Theory explains that the firm’s Bitcoin holdings are not pledged as collateral for its debt obligations. This structure eliminates the risk of margin calls tied to Bitcoin’s fluctuating price movements.

The company’s debt portfolio totals roughly $8.24 billion. Most of these obligations are unsecured and carry maturity dates between 2028 and 2030.

The long-term nature of these debts provides breathing room during price volatility. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s current holdings are valued at $53.54 billion at today’s market prices.

MicroStrategy has also established a cash reserve covering 2.5 years of interest and dividend payments. This financial cushion means the company can meet its obligations without selling Bitcoin.

The treasury buffer allows the firm to weather extended periods of price weakness below its average cost.

Balance Sheet Structure Supports Long-Term Holding

The assumption that short-term price drops trigger automatic selling does not align with MicroStrategy’s financial architecture.

Bull Theory emphasized this point in their analysis shared on social media. The company’s debt structure and cash reserves create flexibility that differs from leveraged trading positions.

Saylor has acknowledged that prolonged Bitcoin prices well below cost could eventually prompt asset sales. However, brief movements below the average purchase price do not affect the company’s core financial health.

The distinction between short-term volatility and sustained price weakness remains important for understanding MicroStrategy’s position.

The current situation does not alter the firm’s liquidity profile. Solvency metrics remain intact despite the unrealized losses on paper.

The ability to hold Bitcoin through market cycles stems from the deliberate financial planning undertaken by management.

Market participants often conflate price drops with forced liquidations. Yet MicroStrategy’s case demonstrates how balance sheet construction determines actual selling pressure.

The absence of collateralized debt and the presence of operating cash reserves provide insulation from mandatory asset disposals during downturns.

The post Bitcoin Drops Below MicroStrategy’s Average Price as $900 Million Loss Raises Questions appeared first on Blockonomi.

TLDR:

• Bitwise introduces seven model portfolios across billion-dollar advisory platforms for crypto exposure.
• Model portfolios include Core options for broad exposure and Thematic models for specific crypto sectors.
• Portfolios offer crypto assets, crypto equities, and blended approaches with systematic rebalancing.
• Risk-managed options rotate between crypto futures and Treasuries based on momentum trading signals.

Bitwise has introduced Model Portfolio Solutions for Digital Assets, making them available across multiple billion-dollar advisory platforms.

The new offering provides financial advisors with seven professionally managed model portfolios designed to help clients access diversified cryptocurrency exposure through exchange-traded funds.

This development addresses a significant gap in the $645 billion model portfolio market, where advisors previously lacked structured options for navigating the expanding digital asset sector.

Comprehensive Portfolio Framework Addresses Growing Advisor Demand

The model portfolio market represents one of the primary channels through which financial advisors allocate assets for their clients. “Model portfolios are one of the most important ways financial advisors allocate to different assets,” according to the announcement.

Despite this market’s substantial size and influence on ETF flows, advisors have faced limited professionally managed solutions for cryptocurrency investments.

The company noted that “advisors have not had many professionally managed options to help them navigate the fast-growing crypto space.”

Bitwise’s new framework changes this dynamic by offering advisors a systematic approach to building crypto allocations.

The seven-model offering includes two distinct categories. Core portfolios deliver broad exposure to the cryptocurrency ecosystem through various investment vehicles. Meanwhile, thematic models concentrate on specific areas such as stablecoins and tokenization.

This structure allows advisors to match portfolio construction with individual client objectives and risk preferences.

As advisors weigh a growing number of cryptocurrency ETF options, “these models are designed to make it easy to build a crypto sleeve that’s tailored to their clients’ goals and preferences.” Bitwise maintains oversight through systematic monitoring and rebalancing procedures to control portfolio drift.

The portfolio options encompass different investment approaches to accommodate varying advisor and client needs. Some models focus exclusively on cryptocurrency assets, while others emphasize crypto-related equities.

Additional portfolios combine both asset types, providing blended exposure across the digital asset investment landscape.

Strategic Options Span Asset Classes and Investment Themes

The Bitwise Crypto Asset Portfolio employs market-cap weighting to deliver diversified cryptocurrency market exposure using spot crypto asset ETPs exclusively.

The offering aims to “offer diversified exposure to the crypto market using only spot crypto asset ETPs, giving investors direct exposure to the underlying crypto assets.”

Conversely, the Bitwise Crypto Equities Portfolio targets investors preferring exposure through publicly traded companies with traditional financial metrics.

The portfolio is “designed for investors who prefer owning real-world companies with revenues and earnings, as opposed to taking direct positions in the underlying spot crypto assets.”

The Bitwise Select Crypto Market Portfolio functions as the foundational offering, providing diversified exposure to major cryptocurrency assets and related equities while applying institutional risk screens.

For broader market coverage, the Bitwise Total Crypto Market Portfolio uses market-cap weighting across crypto investments and crypto-focused equity positions.

Thematic portfolios address specific cryptocurrency sectors and investment strategies. The Bitwise Select Stablecoin and Tokenization Portfolio targets “crypto assets and crypto-linked equities leading the growth of the stablecoin and tokenization ecosystems.”

The Bitwise Beyond Bitcoin Crypto Asset Portfolio serves investors seeking exposure to alternative cryptocurrencies.

It is “designed for investors who either already have significant bitcoin exposure or are looking to invest in crypto assets focused on ‘real-world use cases’ like stablecoins, tokenization, and decentralized finance.”

The models leverage “Bitwise’s eight-year track record in helping institutions and professional investors access crypto.”

The post Bitwise Rolls Out Model Portfolio Solutions for Digital Assets on Major Advisory Platforms appeared first on Blockonomi.

TLDR

• MSTR shares fell by 8% today as Bitcoin dropped to its lowest level in a year.
• The decline in Bitcoin below key technical levels caused significant losses in crypto-linked stocks.
• Despite unrealized losses from Bitcoin’s price drop, MSTR continues to hold and buy more Bitcoin.
• Chairman Michael Saylor confirmed that Strategy will keep accumulating Bitcoin even during market downturns.
• MSTR’s recent Bitcoin purchase was funded through the sale of common stock to support its crypto strategy.

Shares of Strategy (MSTR) fell by over 8% today, driven by a sharp decline in Bitcoin prices. The cryptocurrency dropped to its lowest point in a year, affecting crypto-related stocks. This setback extended the downward trend that has plagued MSTR for months.

Bitcoin Slips Below Key Thresholds

Bitcoin saw a significant drop, falling below important technical levels over the weekend and early this week. The drop in Bitcoin’s value rippled across the market, particularly impacting shares tied to crypto. MSTR’s shares were among the hardest hit, continuing a longer-term slide.

As Bitcoin dipped below $75,000, other major crypto platforms like Robinhood and Circle also saw losses. The correlation between Bitcoin’s price and the performance of crypto stocks remains strong, highlighting the market’s sensitivity. As Bitcoin’s price slipped below key support levels, MSTR’s stock felt the pressure, extending its losses.

Strategy Inc, MSTR

MSTR Grapples with Unrealized Losses

Strategy holds over 713,000 Bitcoins, which were purchased at an average price of $76,000 per coin. The recent drop in Bitcoin’s price has resulted in unrealized losses for the company. Despite these challenges, Strategy has made it clear it won’t sell its Bitcoin holdings.

Chairman Michael Saylor reaffirmed the company’s long-term strategy. “We will continue to accumulate Bitcoin, even in a weak market,” Saylor said. This approach has been a consistent theme for the company, as they see Bitcoin as a key asset despite short-term losses.

Earlier this week, Strategy acquired 855 additional Bitcoins for $75.3 million. The purchase was made at an average price of $87,974 per coin, just before Bitcoin’s price dropped below $75,000. The company’s Bitcoin holdings now total 713,502 BTC, with an average cost of $76,052 per coin.

Strategy’s Ongoing Capital-Raising Approach

Strategy has funded recent Bitcoin purchases through stock sales, continuing its capital-raising efforts. Last week’s Bitcoin purchase was smaller than previous buys, but still part of the company’s strategy to expand its crypto holdings. Despite Bitcoin’s recent slump, Strategy remains committed to increasing its Bitcoin position.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price stands below $74,000, marking its lowest level in a year. This drop follows a retreat of more than 40% from Bitcoin’s all-time highs. MSTR’s shares have followed the trend, now trading at $128.87, down from their 52-week high of $450 per share.

The post MSTR Shares Drop 8% as Bitcoin Hits One-Year Low, Extending Downtrend appeared first on Blockonomi.

BitRiver, Russia’s largest Bitcoin miner, is on the verge of collapse amid mounting financial and legal problems. Courts have placed its parent company, Fox Group of Companies, under observation as debts and unpaid obligations pile up.

One of the disputes driving the court action involves Infrastructure of Siberia. The company is seeking more than $9 million after BitRiver failed to deliver mining equipment. The case stems from a large advance payment for hardware that was never supplied. This led to a lawsuit and a ruling in favor of the energy firm.

Operational Bans and Energy Disputes

Operational bans have hit BitRiver’s regional sites hard. Mining centers in Irkutsk and Buryatia remain offline due to government restrictions. In addition, a 40 MW facility in Ingushetia was shut down by authorities for violating local rules.

These shutdowns have worsened the company’s financial strain, coming alongside rising disputes over unpaid electricity bills. Energy suppliers have filed claims totaling hundreds of millions of rubles. Some also lost trading rights after nonpayment, further restricting BitRiver’s ability to operate.

Leadership issues have added to the pressure. The company’s founder and CEO, Igor Runets, was placed under house arrest in connection with multiple tax evasion charges. Authorities allege that he attempted to conceal company assets to avoid paying taxes, a claim that Runets and his legal team have denied.

BitRiver’s Struggles Amid Sector Growth

BitRiver has also struggled under international pressure. US sanctions and partner exits have cut access to foreign markets. Japanese firms, including SBI, also withdrew from Russia, limiting financial support and supply channels.

The company once managed over 175,000 rigs across 15 centers, generating $129 million in revenue last year. Its rapid decline highlights the fragile balance between regulatory, financial, and operational pressures in Russia’s mining industry.

Despite BitRiver’s setbacks, Russia’s crypto mining sector continues to expand. Grid-connected mining capacity rose 33% in 2025 to 4 GW, reflecting strong domestic demand for industrial mining infrastructure.

Analysts say BitRiver’s bankruptcy could signal broader challenges for large-scale miners operating in restrictive regions. Yet the sector’s continued growth shows that Russia remains a major player in global Bitcoin mining, even as individual companies falter.

The post Russia’s Largest Bitcoin Miner BitRiver Enters Bankruptcy Proceedings: Report appeared first on CryptoPotato.

Bitwise Asset Management’s Chief Investment Officer, Matt Hougan, has stated that the cryptocurrency market has been in a full-blown “crypto winter” since January 2025.

The exec said that signs suggest the downturn may be closer to ending than beginning.

Positive News Isn’t Driving Prices

In a recent post titled “The Depths of Crypto Winter,” Hougan explained that, despite ongoing positive developments in adoption, regulation, and institutional involvement, the market is in a severe bear market.

Hougan noted that Bitcoin has fallen almost 39% from its October 2025 all-time high, while Ethereum is down 53%, and many other digital assets are performing even worse. He said this should not be interpreted as a short-term correction or a minor dip, but rather as a deep, drawn-out bear market similar to previous crypto winters, including those in 2018 and 2022. According to him, factors such as excessive leverage and widespread profit-taking by long-term holders contributed to the current downturn.

Despite developments such as a new Federal Reserve chair, Kevin Warsh, who is supportive of Bitcoin, increasing institutional hiring in crypto, and growing adoption by traditional financial firms, investor sentiment remains deeply wary. Hougan said that “Good news doesn’t matter in the depths of winter,” and added that these severe market conditions typically end not with enthusiasm but through exhaustion and sentiment normalization.

The Bitwise CIO also said that institutional flows played a crucial role in masking the true extent of the 2025 downturn. He cited data from the Bitwise 10 Large Cap Crypto Index, which showed that assets like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP experienced smaller declines, between 10% and 20%, largely due to support from ETFs and Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs).

Other assets, including Solana, Litecoin, and Chainlink, experienced typical bear-market declines of 37% to 46%, while Cardano, Avalanche, Sui, and Polkadot saw losses ranging from 62% to 75%. Hougan explained that institutional access and investment through ETFs and DATs provided a buffer for some assets, while retail-focused tokens bore the brunt of the market downturn.

For instance, ETFs and DATs purchased over 744,000 Bitcoin during the period, representing roughly $75 billion in support. Without that institutional buying, he estimated Bitcoin could have fallen by around 60% since January 2025. As such, several factors could mark the end of the current crypto winter, according to Hougan, who also said,

“I think we’re going to come roaring back sooner rather than later. Heck, it’s been winter since January 2025. Spring is surely coming soon.”

BTC’s Global Standing Weakens

The depth of the current downturn is also reflected in Bitcoin’s standing among global assets. As reported by CryptoPotato, Bitcoin has dropped out of the top ten assets by market capitalization and now ranks 13th globally, according to CompaniesMarketCap data from February 2.

Its market cap has declined to roughly $1.56 trillion, down from about $2.35 trillion back in July 2025, when it ranked sixth after rallying past $119,000.

The post Crypto Winter Has Been Here Since January 2025, But Recovery May Be Closer Than You Think appeared first on CryptoPotato.

Bitcoin (BTC) has tried to recover above $78,000 after sustaining devastating losses over the weekend, but the bears took the upper hand and pushed the price back down. Galaxy Digital research head Alex Thorn said recent on-chain data and market structure suggest continued downside risk for BTC.

The researcher cited weak momentum, macroeconomic uncertainty, and missing catalysts, indicating further pain rather than relief.

Downtrend Firms Up

In the latest research note, Thorn pointed to the sharp sell-off late last month, during which Bitcoin fell 15% between January 28 and 31, while the decline accelerated into the weekend. On Saturday alone, a roughly 10% drop triggered one of the largest liquidation events on record. More than $2 billion in long positions were liquidated across futures trading venues.

During the move, BTC fell as low as $75,644 on Coinbase, and slipped as much as 10% below the average cost basis of US spot Bitcoin ETFs, estimated at around $84,000. At one point, the crypto asset also briefly traded below Strategy’s reported average cost basis of $76,037 and came close to its one-year low of $74,420, set during the April 2025 “Tariff Tantrum.”

Thorn stated that 46% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply is now underwater, which means that those coins last moved on-chain at higher prices, and that Bitcoin’s January close marked four consecutive red monthly candles for the first time since 2018. According to the note, with the exception of 2017, the asset has not previously experienced a roughly 40% drawdown from an all-time high without extending to a decline of 50% or more within three months. This would imply that prices are closer to $63,000 based on the current cycle.

The Galaxy researcher also flagged a significant gap in on-chain ownership between roughly $82,000 and $70,000, which indicates limited demand in that range and increases the likelihood of a further test lower.

Its analysis places Bitcoin’s realized price near $56,000 and the 200-week moving average around $58,000, levels that rise gradually as long as spot prices remain above them.

The note said there is little evidence of significant accumulation by whales or long-term holders, though long-term holder profit-taking has begun to ease. Thorn outlined that potential catalysts remain difficult to identify, while narratives have also worked against Bitcoin as it has failed to trade in line with precious metals like gold and silver during a period of increased macro and geopolitical uncertainty.

While the passage of US crypto market structure legislation, known as the CLARITY Act, could act as an external catalyst, Galaxy said the odds of passage have diminished in recent weeks and that any positive impact may benefit altcoins more than Bitcoin.

These factors combined raise the chance that Bitcoin drifts toward the lower end of the $70,000 range and potentially tests the realized price and 200-week moving average in the high-$50,000 area over the coming weeks or months. Interestingly, these levels have historically represented cycle bottoms and strong long-term entry points.

BTC Bottom May Be Deeper

Crypto analyst Doctor Profit recently lowered his expectations for BTC’s cycle bottom after the price decline. He said the sell-off and loss of important technical support levels have changed the market outlook.

As a result, he revised his projected bottom to a lower range between $54,000 and $44,000, down from his earlier estimate of $50,000 to $60,000.

The post Bitcoin Risks Test of $58K Support as On-Chain Metrics Deteriorate: Analyst appeared first on CryptoPotato.

Bitcoin’s price experienced another leg down in the last hours, dropping from around $78,000 to $74,780 in a couple of red candles. The move resulted in approximately $20 million in liquidated derivatives positions across major exchanges, with the majority held long.

Over the past hour alone, BTC lost around 1.7% of its value. The majority of altcoins followed suit. ETH dropped by 2 percent, XRP by 1.56%, SOL by 1.5%, ADA by 2.6%, and so forth.

The sudden drop comes as Iran seeks a new format for the nuclear talks with the United States. Recall that many regional (from the Middle East) powers, such as Egypt, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Oman, were trying to bring Iran and the US to talk in Istanbul this Friday.

Now, Iran is reportedly seeking a bilateral meeting with the US alone.

The shift could derail the diplomatic effort and increase the risk of a U.S. military response amid Trump’s Gulf buildup. – Reads the report.

Bitcoin continues to trade pretty much in contrast to traditional safe havens like gold, which haven’t reacted to the news. On the contrary, the precious metal registers an increase of around 3.5% in the past 24 hours, while BTC is down by almost 5% over the same period, signaling the breadth of the ongoing bear market.

The post Bitcoin Drops Below $75,000 as Iran Seeks to Shift Meeting Format with the US appeared first on CryptoPotato.

A prominent crypto analyst has detailed a list of factors driving the current market downturn while also outlining longer-term reasons for optimism.

The analysis, shared by Post Fiat founder Alex Good, also known as ‘goodalexander’ on February 3, 2026, comes as digital asset markets face their most bearish social sentiment in months and Bitcoin trades near nine-month lows.

Dissecting the Current Downturn

The industry observer presented eight bearish factors for the current slump, with the primary reason being the failure of major blockchain integration narratives to generate sustained value.

Examples include Arbitrum’s brief rally on a Robinhood announcement that later resulted in an in-house solution from the broker and Nasdaq’s use of private blockchains for on-chain trading instead of public ones.

The analyst noted that real fee capture for major layer-1 protocols has been low, with Solana’s daily fees falling to around $1 million from peaks above $24 million during the “Trump coin” frenzy.

Other factors include a macroeconomic focus on international equities, gold, and AI, which has drawn attention away from crypto. Good also suggested that the market has acted as a “Trump proxy,” performing well on pro-crypto policy expectations that have not fully materialized.

Furthermore, the expert pointed to structural market pressures, suggesting that if discounts on digital asset trusts (DATs) widen, activist investors could be incentivized to sell the underlying tokens, creating more downward pressure.

Data supports this bearish view. According to market intelligence provider Santiment, “FUD has taken over social media” following Bitcoin’s 16% drop over the past week, with the firm calling it the most negative retail sentiment since November 2025.

Investment flows have also mirrored the gloom, considering data from CoinShares showed a $1.7 billion weekly outflow from digital asset investment products, with Bitcoin alone seeing $1.32 billion exit. Additionally, since hitting highs in October 2025, the sector has lost $73 billion in assets under management.

What Could Still Support Crypto Longer Term

Despite the sell-off, Good said there are still reasons for cautious optimism. He pointed to a more fragmented global order, rising debt, and the risk of wealth taxes as factors that could renew interest in fixed-supply assets.

He also argued that artificial intelligence may lead to higher unemployment rather than job creation, increasing pressure on central banks to ease policy, which has historically benefited scarce assets.

Other analysts have echoed the idea that the cycle is strained rather than broken. On February 2, Global Macro Investor founder Raoul Pal said Bitcoin’s decline reflects a U.S. liquidity drain tied to fiscal mechanics and a government shutdown, not a failed market structure. He argued that easing liquidity later in the year could change conditions, though near-term momentum remains weak.

However, as things stand, traders will need to monitor if Bitcoin can maintain its stability in the mid-$70,000 range. According to market watchers like Daan Crypto Trades, a sustained move back above $80,000 could calm markets, while another break lower would likely test sentiment again.

The post Why Bitcoin Is Struggling: 8 Factors Impacting Crypto Markets appeared first on CryptoPotato.