Bitcoin's future hinges on retail interest as institutional access fails to spark a market revival.

The post Lyn Alden: Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is evolving, retail participation remains muted, and integration into finance is crucial for global adoption | The Wolf Of All Streets appeared first on Crypto Briefing.

Flawed token models are driving short-term trading, hindering long-term growth in the crypto market.

The post Namik Muduroglu: Token models incentivize selling over holding, governance structures in DAOs are failing, and regulatory fears stifle innovation | Unchained appeared first on Crypto Briefing.

Paradigm's expansion into AI and robotics highlights a strategic shift towards integrating advanced technologies with decentralized systems.

The post Paradigm plans $1.5 billion fund to expand into AI, robotics appeared first on Crypto Briefing.

Escalating military actions risk destabilizing the region, potentially leading to broader geopolitical tensions and economic repercussions.

The post Trump confirms launch of operation against Iran appeared first on Crypto Briefing.

Heightened geopolitical tensions can lead to significant volatility in cryptocurrency markets, impacting investor confidence and market stability.

The post Bitcoin tumbles after Israel launches strike on Iran, triggering $100M in longs liquidated in 15 minutes appeared first on Crypto Briefing.

Bitcoin Magazine

DCTRL Vancouver: Iconic Bitcoin Hackerspace Closes Downtown Location After 12 Years Due to Zoning Changes

DCTRL, a Bitcoin hub and hacker space out of Vancouver, the fair-weather Canadian city, has announced the sunset of its downtown basement location, iconic among early adopters for its tinkerer mindset and hardware hacker culture. The community will be migrating to a new location in the coming weeks, and updates to the vision of the hub. The Vancouver Bitcoin community is renowned for having set up the first Bitcoin ATM in History, with DCTRL specifically having hosted a variety of renowned characters that, over the years, gave this industry much of its cultural and innovative flair. 

Visited by some of the most influential people in the Bitcoin and broader Crypto industry in its 12 year run, DCTRL is far from done being a hub of the Canadian Bitcoin and Crypto scene. Preparing to move due to a change in zoning laws, plans to relaunch in a new location are in the works, as active members consolidate the historical moments, relationships, and lessons learnt during perhaps the longest-running Bitcoin hackspace experiment in the young industry’s history.

It all started at Waves cafe on Howe Street, in Vancouver. The Bitcoiniacs, a group of four OGs that operated a Bitcoin brokerage at the time — still active to this day — decided it was time to get the robots involved. So they rigged up an ATM to sell bitcoin to the public, rallied the local Vancouver tech, finance, and burgeoning crypto scene, and hosted a historical launch party. 

“The first Bitcoin ATM in the world was a massive event,” said Freddie Heartline, a Bitcoin enthusiast and co-founding member of the DCTRL hacker space. In an exclusive interview with Bitcoin Magazine, Heartline went on to recall the event, saying, “Oh man, the vibes were incredible. It literally felt like a really good rave. But it was smarter. Way smarter. That’s how it all came about, actually.” referring to the founding of DCTRL.  

The timing for the Bitcoin ATM event was perfect; it was October 2013, and Bitcoin had just gone from a few dollars to almost 150, consolidated for a few weeks around 100, and was getting ready to take a shot at 1,000 a coin. The energy across the Bitcoin community as electric, this was the end of the longest bear market in Bitcoin history, in a way this rise in price was proof that Bitcoin was here to stay.

The launch of the first Bitcoin ATM, as a result, made national and international news. The idea of a Bitcoin ATM being operational was considered a historical milestone in the adoption of Bitcoin as money. 

Tens of thousands of Canadian dollars worth of bitcoin were sold that day and over the coming weeks, likely creating a few millionaires over the years, spawning copycat ATM projects and even a handful of Bitcoin ATM manufacturing companies to boot. It also inspired the creation of the DCTRL hacker space, called “Decentral Vancouver” at the time. 

Cameron Gray, another Bitcoin enthusiast who was volunteering with the Bitcoiniacs event and a friend of Heartline, was the one who had the idea. “Cam was absolutely an essential part of founding Decentral.” Heartline recalled “He literally turned to me one day – as he was operating the bitcoin ATM at Waves – after I complained about the lighting at the coffee shop – and said ‘we should open a space.’ And that was it.”

Soon, they had secured a basement location in downtown Vancouver, grimy, humid, but cozy. Over the years, this spot became a hub for Bitcoin engineers, founders, crypto enthusiasts, and eventually legends. The decor got better, the leaks patched, and the walls decorated with Bitcoin art. The empty spaces filled up with hardware of all kinds, modified to operate or somehow interact with the orange coin. 

Heartline and Gray were starting a lifestyle project of sorts, and while Bitcoin may have been doing well at over $1,000, it would soon correct back to $300, another bear market, which had important consequences for the industry. During that time, the bills for DCTRL’s rent had to be paid somehow, and so Heartline moved in. Not into the basement, but onto the rooftop. In order to keep the lights on during that bear market, he literally set up a tent. Not a bad setup either if you have a look.

DCTRL started hosting meetups, the Vancouver Startup Weekend community got wind of it, and a gentleman known as Gregg Peacock began to visit the hub. Soon enough, the Startup Weekend events were taking place at DCTRL as well, pulling in the local tech startup scene. Before long, even Vitalik Buterin, founder of Ethereum and former writer for Bitcoin Magazine, showed up. 

Peacock had another important contribution to DCTRL; he made a donation that created a symbol for the local community. He donated $500 to the space with one condition: “It has to be used for something creative …” Heartline recalled, “so I found a Pepsi machine on Craigslist. Peacock even helped us move the thing in a pickup. Him, me, Cam, and Mike Olthoff moved that fucking insanely heavy and awkward thing down the stairs – lol almost killing Cam.” The Pepsi machine would soon get backwards engineered, hacked, and rebranded to the Bepsi, for obvious Bitcoin reasons.

In the above video, you can see Peacock making an on-chain transaction to the pop machine, milliseconds later dropping a soda for him on Q. The satisfying sound of Bitcoin being used as money for the small pleasures of life became a staple of DCTRL. A digital version of the Bepsi was eventually made, which fans from all over the world used to make donations. Many iterations of the underlying software took place over time, rig-wired into the Cold War era pop machine with a Raspberry Pi and some hacker ingenuity. A decade later, even the Mayor of Vancouver Ken Sim, dropped by to pay homage to this staple of Vancouver hacker culture, this time buying a soda from Bepsi with a lightning payment. 

Today, the Bepsi supports practically every Bitcoin protocol, a testing ground for the cutting edge of Bitcoin technology, including protocols like Taproot Assets, Spark, and Arcade OS. “We even issued our own Bepsi token. One Bepsi equals one soda from the Bepsi machine… it’s like a stable coin… pegged to the price of the pop can.” said Heartline. The Bepsi, which in a way was inspired by the Bitcoin ATM, also inspired copycats, such as the 21up vending machine hosted in a nearby Blockchain lab known as MintGreen. To this day, funds collected by the Bepsi machine have gone to support the operation of the hacker space and cover costs, serving as a cornerstone of the community. Control over the Bepsi’s underlying wallets and tech stack in a way setting rank among the most active members and hosts. 

Visited by Legends

Throughout the years, big names within the industry visited or engaged with DCTRL in one way or another. Vitalik Buterin personally visited the space and hung out there in the very early days of Ethereum, as demonstrated by this photograph hung on their wall, featuring Gray, Heartline, Vitalik, and another active member referred to as Kyle. 

The founders of CaVirtex, the first Canadian Bitcoin exchange, were also photographed there. This brand is little known now as they were bought out by Kraken years later, but they had a deep influence on the Canadian Bitcoin scene, selling the coin to Canadians since before the first bull run, which peaked at $30 per coin. Without this exchange, many of the big Canadian Bitcoiners may not have gotten in. 

Virtually, Bitcoin celebrities also attended DCTRL events throughout the years, answering questions from the local crowd, such as Roger Ver, before the fork wars, Andreas Antonopoulos, and Willy Woo. Erik Vorhees, who came to fame in Bitcoin for creating the first major instant swap, crypto-to-crypto exchange called ShapeShift, is seen in this video doing a fireside chat at DCTRL during a local meetup. 

Even one famous scammer attended the hub, a man who was a regular in the Canadian Bitcoin scene in the 2014 era, and who to this day remains one of the unsolved mysteries of crypto-related crime, Gerald Cotten of QuadrigaCX. Cotten, whom I personally met multiple times in Toronto at the time, was a charming and smooth-talking entrepreneur in the scene at the time, before his turbulent professional history was revealed and the exchange went down in bankruptcy, leaving millions of dollars of user funds unpaid. Cotten allegedly died suddenly and mysteriously in India just before the exchange went bankrupt, taking the crypto keys with him, but many who were personally affected by this centralized exchange collapse are skeptical of that story. 

Further evidence of DCTRL as a microcosm of the industry as a whole was seen years later during the fork wars, as Gray, the other primary co-founder of the hub, took the ‘big block’ side of the debate, resulting in intense debates and ultimately a falling out with the local community and broader Bitcoin scene. Gray, nevertheless, is highly respected and appreciated by the active members of DCTRL for his contributions to the DCTRL social scene, which would inevitably suffer from the same forks and tensions that the Bitcoin protocol went through at the time. 

During those difficult times, DCTRL served as a forum and debate space for these topics, even hosting Peter Rizun of the alternative implementation Bitcoin Unlimited — a big blocker — who debated Taylor, seen on the right in the photo below. 

Overall, DCTRL enjoyed more than 12 years of continuous operation, boasts hundreds of events hosted, over 1500 registered community members, and 69 recorded talks published on YouTube, which touched many elements of the Bitcoin and crypto industry. Throughout this whole time, the hub was operated entirely by volunteers and sustained through public donations and, of course, the Bepsi. 

As the location of DCTRL gets rezoned by the city government, and a new building will be going up in its place, the active members and hosts of DCTRL, have begun organizing a transition to a new location, alongside an update to the brand.

According to DJ, one of the active members who prefers to stay pseudonymous, the hub has had record attendance in recent months. And while the location will change, its future is brighter than ever. Those who would like to be a part of the future of DCTRL can learn more at www.DCTRL.wtf. 

This post DCTRL Vancouver: Iconic Bitcoin Hackerspace Closes Downtown Location After 12 Years Due to Zoning Changes first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Juan Galt.

Bitcoin Magazine

Senate Democrats Press DOJ, Treasury to Probe Binance Over Trump Ties, Iran Sanctions Allegations

Eleven Democrats on the U.S. Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee are pressing the Trump administration to investigate Binance over allegations that the exchange facilitated illicit finance activity tied to Iran and may be violating its 2023 federal settlement.

In a letter sent Friday to Attorney General Pam Bondi and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, the senators urged the Justice Department and Treasury to conduct a “prompt, comprehensive review” of Binance’s sanctions compliance controls. 

The lawmakers cited recent media reports alleging that billions of dollars in digital assets flowed through the platform to Iranian entities, including groups linked to terrorism.

The letter was led by Sen. Mark Warner and signed by Ranking Member Elizabeth Warren along with Sens. Chris Van Hollen, Jack Reed, Catherine Cortez Masto, Tina Smith, Raphael Warnock, Andy Kim, Ruben Gallego, Lisa Blunt Rochester and Angela Alsobrooks.

According to the senators, Binance compliance personnel uncovered evidence last year that roughly $1.7 billion in digital assets had been routed through the exchange to Iranian entities, including the Iran-backed Houthis and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. 

In one instance, a Binance vendor allegedly moved $1.2 billion in funds connected to Iran-linked actors. The letter also claims that Iranian users accessed more than 1,500 Binance accounts and that the platform may have been used in efforts by Russian actors to evade sanctions.

The lawmakers raised concerns that employees who identified the transactions were dismissed and that Binance has become less responsive to law enforcement requests. They argued that such actions would conflict with the company’s obligations under its 2023 plea agreement and related settlements.

In 2023, Binance pleaded guilty to federal charges including violations of U.S. sanctions laws and anti-money laundering failures. The company agreed to pay more than $4 billion in penalties and committed to sweeping reforms under U.S. supervision, including enhanced know-your-customer procedures and sanctions screening. 

The senators contend that the latest reports call into question whether those reforms have been implemented and maintained. In its settlement with the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control, Binance committed to implement controls capable of identifying and blocking prohibited transactions. 

Allowing $1.7 billion in digital assets to move to sanctioned Iranian entities, they wrote, would be inconsistent with that commitment.

Binance and President Donald Trump

The letter also touched on Binance’s recent business relationships involving President Donald Trump and his family’s crypto ventures. Lawmakers pointed to the exchange’s promotion of USD1, a stablecoin issued by World Liberty Financial, a Trump family-backed project.

According to the letter, Binance offered interest incentives for users holding USD1, assisted with technology related to the token and accepted a $2 billion investment tied to it.

The senators further referenced Trump’s pardon last fall of Binance founder Changpeng Zhao, who had pleaded guilty to failing to implement an effective anti-money laundering program and served a four-month prison sentence. 

The lawmakers argued that these connections heighten the need for what they described as a “thorough, impartial” probe.

Binance’s dubious ties with Russia

Beyond Iran-related concerns, the letter cites Binance’s recent launch of crypto-linked payment cards in parts of the former Soviet Union. The senators warned that similar products have been used to bypass restrictions on the Russian financial system. 

They also noted the exchange’s partnership with Kyrgyzstan to launch a stablecoin and digital currency initiative, raising questions about exposure to sanctions evasion risks.

“These allegations raise grave concerns that poor illicit finance controls at Binance remain a significant threat to national security,” the senators wrote. They warned that weak safeguards at the world’s largest digital asset exchange could allow terrorist groups or sanctions evaders to access the global financial system.

A Binance spokesperson disputed the allegations, stating that the company detected and reported suspicious activity and that claims it retaliated against compliance staff are false. 

The company has said it remains committed to meeting its regulatory obligations under the 2023 agreements.

The senators requested a response from Bondi and Bessent by March 13.

This post Senate Democrats Press DOJ, Treasury to Probe Binance Over Trump Ties, Iran Sanctions Allegations first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Micah Zimmerman.

Bitcoin Magazine

Sora Ventures-Backed Bitplanet Reaches 300 Bitcoin, Ranks Among Asia’s Top 20 Corporate Holders

Bitplanet Inc. has accumulated 300 BTC through a structured purchase program, positioning the South Korea-listed company among the top 20 corporate Bitcoin holders in Asia.

The company, backed by Sora Ventures, began building its BTC treasury in the fourth quarter of 2025. Its most recent purchases were carried out in phases between Feb. 23 and Feb. 26 via Upbit, one of South Korea’s largest cryptocurrency exchanges. 

The BTC will be held with a professional custody provider, the company told Bitcoin Magazine.

Chief Executive Paul Lee said Bitplanet is focused on more than balance sheet exposure. “We are not simply accumulating Bitcoin,” Lee said in a statement. He added that the company plans to explore operational strategies that could contribute to revenue generation and cash flow over time, linking BTC treasury management with artificial intelligence computing initiatives.

Bitplanet said it views Asia as a key driver of the next phase of digital asset treasury adoption and aims to position itself as a transparent, institutional-grade corporate holder of Bitcoin. 

The company said it may expand its holdings further, subject to market conditions, regulatory developments, and financing availability.

Corporate bitcoin strain

The firm counts several digital asset treasury investors among its backers, including Simon Gerovich of Metaplanet, as well as AsiaStrategy, UTXO Management, KCGI, Kingsway Capital, and ParaFi Capital.

Metaplanet did post a net loss of 95 billion yen ($619 million) for fiscal 2025, driven by a 102.2 billion yen ($665.8 million) valuation decline on its bitcoin holdings. 

The disclosure marks the latest example of a corporate bitcoin buyer facing pressure as the cryptocurrency’s price slid from record highs in October.

The company closed the year with 35,102 BTC, valued at approximately $2.4 billion, making Metaplanet the fourth-largest public corporate BTC holder globally, behind Strategy.

Since it began accumulating BTC 21 months ago, Metaplanet has spent nearly $3.8 billion, averaging $107,000 per coin, according to data from two weeks ago.

Last quarter, when Sora Ventures unveiled its plans at Taipei Blockchain Week, the firm said it plans to purchase $1 billion in BTC within six months, backed by a $200 million initial commitment from regional partners. 

Today, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading near $65,000, drifting lower from mid‑week highs near $70,000 amid persistent selling pressure across crypto markets.

This post Sora Ventures-Backed Bitplanet Reaches 300 Bitcoin, Ranks Among Asia’s Top 20 Corporate Holders first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Micah Zimmerman.

Bitcoin Magazine

U.S. Government Seizes Over $580 Million in Crypto Linked to Southeast Asian Scams

U.S. Attorney Jeanine Ferris Pirro said federal authorities have frozen and seized more than $580 million in cryptocurrency tied to Southeast Asian scam networks, marking a major escalation in the government’s campaign against cross-border crypto fraud.

The funds were restrained through the Justice Department’s Scam Center Strike Force, a task force formed in November to target cryptocurrency investment and confidence schemes linked to Chinese transnational criminal organizations. 

Officials said the groups use social media platforms and text messaging to target U.S. victims and siphon billions of dollars each year. Recent estimates place annual losses to Americans near $10 billion.

“In only three months, we have made significant progress, freezing, seizing, and forfeiting cryptocurrency worth more than $578 million from these criminals,” Pirro said in a statement. She said her office will seek forfeiture through the courts and aims to return funds to victims.

Authorities describe the schemes as “pig butchering” operations, in which fraudsters build relationships with victims before steering them into fraudulent crypto investments. Victims are persuaded to purchase legitimate digital assets and then transfer them to counterfeit trading platforms controlled by the scam networks.

The operations often run out of secured compounds in parts of Southeast Asia, including Burma, Cambodia, and Laos. U.S. officials said some workers inside the compounds are trafficking victims who are forced to carry out scams under threat of violence. In certain areas, revenue generated from scam activity accounts for a large share of local economic output.

The Strike Force is focused on identifying senior figures within the criminal networks, including organizers and money launderers who move proceeds through blockchain transactions and shell accounts. Investigators are tracing funds across exchanges and wallets to disrupt cash-out points and freeze assets before they are dispersed.

The initiative brings together the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the District of Columbia and several Justice Department divisions, along with the Federal Bureau of Investigation, the U.S. Secret Service, and the Internal Revenue Service’s Criminal Investigation unit. U.S. Attorney’s Offices in Rhode Island and the Western District of Washington are also participating.

The Justice Department said the Strike Force will continue targeting infrastructure, financial channels, and leadership structures tied to the fraud networks.

Crypto crime hit $154 Billion last year

Data from Chainalysis shows illicit crypto addresses received at least $154 billion in 2025, a 162% year-over-year increase, with sanctioned entities driving much of the surge. Nation-states including Russia, Iran, and North Korea played an outsized role, leveraging blockchain infrastructure for sanctions evasion, money laundering, and large-scale thefts.

Stablecoins accounted for 84% of illicit transaction volume, the report said. 

The report also highlights the expansion of Chinese money laundering networks offering “laundering-as-a-service” and other full-stack illicit infrastructure. Although illicit activity still represents less than 1% of total crypto volume, the scale and geopolitical dimension of the activity pose rising risks for regulators, law enforcement, and national security.

This post U.S. Government Seizes Over $580 Million in Crypto Linked to Southeast Asian Scams first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Micah Zimmerman.

Bitcoin Magazine

MARA Holdings (MARA) Stock Jumps After $1.71B Loss as Firm Pivots to AI Data Centers

Shares of MARA Holdings climbed 13% in premarket trading Friday, even after the Bitcoin miner reported a $1.71 billion net loss for the fourth quarter, as investors focused on the company’s shift toward artificial intelligence and high-performance computing.

The company posted a net loss of $1.71 billion for Q4 2025, compared with net income of $528.3 million during the same period a year earlier. Revenue for the quarter fell 6% to $202.3 million, according to a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, as lower Bitcoin prices offset gains from higher network hash rate.

The largest driver of the quarterly loss was a $1.5 billion negative revaluation of digital assets following a decline in the price of Bitcoin. Under fair-value accounting rules, companies must adjust the carrying value of their digital asset holdings each quarter to reflect market prices, creating swings in reported earnings.

For the full year 2025, MARA reported a net loss of $1.31 billion, compared with net income of $541 million in 2024. Annual revenue rose to $907.1 million from $656.4 million the prior year, reflecting expanded operations and increased Bitcoin production earlier in the cycle.

During the fourth quarter, MARA mined 2,011 BTC, down 6% from the third quarter and below the 2,492 BTC mined in the year-ago period. Total production for 2025 reached 8,799 BTC, compared with 9,430 BTC in 2024.

As of Dec. 31, the company held 53,822 BTC, including 15,315 BTC pledged as collateral. Based on a quarterly price of $87,498 per coin, the value of its Bitcoin reserves stood near $4.7 billion at quarter’s end.

 Over the past six months, MARA shares have fallen roughly 45%, reflecting pressure across the mining sector tied to Bitcoin price volatility and post-halving economics.

MARA is moving to AI 

Alongside its earnings report, MARA outlined a strategic pivot aimed at transforming the firm from a pure-play Bitcoin miner into an energy and digital infrastructure company. 

The company announced a joint venture with Starwood Digital Ventures to develop AI-focused and high-performance computing data centers at select sites with access to low-cost power and grid capacity.

The first phase of the initiative targets more than one gigawatt of IT infrastructure, with potential expansion to 2.5 gigawatts.

Projects will be structured on a site-by-site basis, with MARA retaining stakes of up to 50% while continuing Bitcoin mining operations where economics support it.

Earlier this month, MARA acquired a 64% stake in Exaion, a firm that provides AI and high-performance computing solutions for corporate and government clients, signaling its intent to diversify beyond mining.

The strategy mirrors a broader industry shift as miners seek ways to make money due to tighter margins and fluctuating Bitcoin prices. Over the last couple of months, major Bitcoin mining firms like Cipher and Bitfarms have been aggressively repurposing their energy-heavy infrastructure into AI and high-performance computing data centers to diversify revenue as traditional mining margins shrink.

This post MARA Holdings (MARA) Stock Jumps After $1.71B Loss as Firm Pivots to AI Data Centers first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Micah Zimmerman.

A Bitcoin developer embedded a 66-kilobyte image inside a single transaction without using OP_RETURN or Taproot.

The transaction followed consensus rules. Anyone can verify the bytes using standard node software. Martin Habovštiak didn't do this to make art, but to prove that closing one data doorway doesn't remove the capability, it just changes where bytes hide.

The demonstration lands amid Bitcoin's most contentious governance fight in years. One faction wants stricter filters to keep “spam” off the blockchain.

Another argues that harsh restrictions push people into worse behaviors and advantage large miners. Habovštiak's experiment provides evidence for the second position: filtering redirects rather than preventing them.

What actually happened

Habovštiak's write-up includes a transaction ID and verification method.

Users can run bitcoin-cli getrawtransaction, then xxd -r -p to reconstruct the file. The construction avoids the two pathways most cited in data storage debates: the OP_RETURN field that Bitcoin Core recently relaxed, and Taproot's witness structure that enabled many inscriptions.

Bitcoin transactions are bytes. Nodes enforce that bytes follow structural rules, such as valid signatures, proper formatting, and legitimate spending conditions.

They don't enforce that bytes “mean money only.” If someone constructs valid transaction bytes that also form a valid image file, the network stores and relays them.

Bitcoin can discourage certain data patterns through software defaults. It cannot prevent them without directly confronting miners' economic incentives.

The distinction nobody explains

Bitcoin operates with two layers of rules. Consensus rules determine what blocks are valid. Policy rules determine what transactions individual nodes relay and what miners typically accept into mempools by default.

Policy can slow behavior, raise friction, and impose costs. It cannot guarantee prevention if a transaction remains consensus-valid and pays sufficient fees.

Miners can include any consensus-valid transaction, especially when it reaches them through paths that bypass regular node relay.

OP_RETURN size limits have always been policy choices, not consensus walls. Bitcoin Core has historically treated these as standardness nudges, with developers arguing that harsh limits push people into worse encodings, such as stuffing data into outputs that appear spendable, bloating the UTXO set that every node must maintain.

Habovštiak's demonstration makes this abstract argument concrete. Cap one method, and engineering effort flows toward another.

The pay-to-play problem

Even when many nodes refuse to relay “non-standard” transactions, economic incentives create workarounds. Mining pools accept transactions directly, bypassing the relay network. Services explicitly launched for this already exist.

MARA's Slipstream operates as a direct submission pipeline for “large or non-standard” transactions that nodes often exclude from mempools even when they follow consensus rules. The service routes around defaults rather than breaking rules.

This creates a centralization vector that stricter filters may amplify. When regular nodes won't relay certain transaction types, only miners and specialized services can reliably land them in blocks.

At 10 satoshis per virtual byte, one megabyte of blockspace costs approximately 0.1 BTC. At 50 satoshis per byte, roughly 0.5 BTC. The “ban” question becomes “what will people pay?”

BIP-110 and the governance battlefield

The demonstration arrives as Bitcoin debates BIP-110, a proposal to temporarily restrict data-carrying transaction fields at the consensus level for approximately one year.

The draft would make new output scripts exceeding 34 bytes invalid, except for OP_RETURN outputs, which can be up to 83 bytes. It also proposes limits on payload sizes and witness stack elements, generally capping them at 256 bytes with narrow exceptions.

Supporters frame BIP-110 as a measure that protects node operators from runaway storage costs.

Critics warn about side effects and implementation risks. The proposal represents an escalation from policy-level filtering to consensus-level restriction, a shift carrying governance implications beyond the immediate technical question.

Habovštiak's experiment feeds directly into this debate. It demonstrates that even consensus restrictions face pressure to adapt. He notes BIP-110 could invalidate his specific construction, but also that he could produce alternatives using different encodings.

The underlying dynamic persists: squeeze one pattern, and incentives plus ingenuity push data elsewhere.

The temporary framing, one year rather than permanent, acknowledges this reality implicitly. A permanent change would require confronting harder questions about the sustainability of enforcement.

A temporary measure admits the problem may lack a clean technical solution, only tactical management with a limited shelf life.

The worst-behavior problem

Restricting popular data pathways can backfire by pushing usage toward encodings that impose higher network costs.

When developers create outputs that look spendable to carry arbitrary data, they increase the UTXO set, which is the database of unspent outputs every full node must maintain in accessible storage.

UTXO growth represents a more persistent burden than witness data or OP_RETURN payloads, which can be pruned. An output that encodes an image file remains in the UTXO set until someone spends it, potentially indefinitely.

The node cost accumulates rather than aging away.

This explains Bitcoin Core's historical reluctance to impose harsh limits on OP_RETURN. The alternative isn't necessarily better. Filters that seem protective can increase long-term operating costs for nodes, undermining the decentralization goal they aim to preserve.

Three paths forward

The enforcement economics suggest three scenarios.

The first path maintains the status quo: price it, don't ban it. Arbitrary data persists, governed primarily by fee markets. When blockspace becomes scarce, data-heavy transactions are naturally priced out. The lever becomes economic rather than technical.

The second path tightens policy filters while leaving consensus unchanged. Data shifts toward harder-to-filter encodings and direct-to-miner submission. Centralization risk rises because only miners and specialized pipelines can reliably confirm these transactions.

The third path implements consensus restrictions, such as those outlined in BIP-110. Popular patterns may temporarily decline, but adaptation continues as new encodings emerge. Collateral damage increases if limits push data into outputs that bloat the UTXO set.

Governance risk escalates as contentious consensus changes raise coordination challenges and the potential for network splits.

What decides the outcome

Three indicators signal which scenario materializes.

First, miner behavior. Do mining pools continue accepting non-standard transactions through direct channels? Services like Slipstream exist specifically for this, as their sustained operation reveals miner priorities.

Second, governance trajectory. Does BIP-110 gather meaningful adoption beyond debate? The proposal requires coordinated activation across a decentralized network, making political viability as important as technical merit.

Third, second-order effects. Do restrictions push more data into encodings that increase node burden? UTXO growth rates during policy tightening periods would provide empirical evidence.

The uncomfortable reality

If you oppose on-chain data storage beyond financial transactions, Habovštiak's demonstration delivers an uncomfortable message: you probably can't ban it.

You can price it through fee markets. You can discourage it through policy defaults. You can raise friction through implementation complexity.

But full prevention requires either accepting economic constraints you cannot control or implementing consensus restrictions that carry their own risks.

Bitcoin validates transaction structure, not meaning. The protocol doesn't distinguish between “money transactions” and “data transactions” because that distinction requires interpretation that the network cannot perform.

The real debate isn't whether Bitcoin can technically prevent arbitrary data, as the demonstrated answer is “not easily, and perhaps not at all.”

The debate is which tradeoffs the network accepts: centralization toward miners who bypass filters, governance risk from contentious consensus changes, or higher long-term costs from worse encoding choices.

Habovštiak's image proves the filters don't work as advertised. What comes next depends on whether Bitcoin's users and developers accept that reality or continue pursuing technical solutions to what increasingly appears to be an economic and governance problem.

The post Bitcoin developer hides a 66KB image in a transaction to expose a governance blind spot vulnerable to spam appeared first on CryptoSlate.

For the better part of the last two years, spot Bitcoin ETFs were treated like a one-way door. They took Bitcoin out of keys and operational hassle and turned it into a ticker that fit inside every normal portfolio. Money came in, shares got created, and Bitcoin had a steady, legitimate source of demand.

Across five straight weeks leading into late February, investors pulled close to $3.8 billion from US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs, the longest weekly outflow run since early 2025. Bitcoin stayed pinned around the mid-$60,000s through much of that stretch, with recent trading near $68,000 while markets tried to regain balance.

The size of these outflows is huge, and it matters a lot, but the timing matters more here. The outflow run landed as tariff policy uncertainty seeped into rates, equities, and commodities, turning the macro tape jumpy again.

Since Feb. 20, however, the flow picture has shifted, at least temporarily.

Between Feb. 20 and Feb. 27, U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $875.5 million in net inflows, including several consecutive strong creation days. That doesn’t erase the prior five-week bleed, but it does complicate the narrative.

What looked like a one-way de-risking cycle may instead be transitioning into a reset, with institutional demand tentatively reappearing even as macro uncertainty lingers.

What did ETFs actually do to Bitcoin’s market?

A spot ETF sits inside a creation and redemption system. When demand for ETF shares rises, authorized participants create new shares by delivering value into the fund. When demand fades and shares get redeemed, the system shrinks. That process connects stock-market buying and selling to Bitcoin exposure in the background, which is why ETF flow prints became a daily scorecard for Bitcoin.

This got more concrete after the SEC approved orders that allow in-kind creations and redemptions for certain crypto ETP shares, meaning APs can exchange shares for the underlying asset instead of routing everything through cash. The SEC’s framing leaned on efficiency and lower costs.

But even when day-to-day execution still leans cash-heavy, the core point stays the same: ETF flows are one of the cleanest bridges between institutions and the Bitcoin market.

Here's a useful way to hold it in your head.

On an inflow day, the ETF complex expands as shares get created and exposure grows. The market feels a buyer that doesn't need a fresh catalyst every morning.

On an outflow day, the ETF complex contracts as shares get redeemed and exposure shrinks. The market loses that default buyer, and it has to pick up the extra selling pressure.

Why do five straight weeks land differently than one ugly week?

A single rough week is easy to discount. There are always calendar effects, rebalancing, or a temporary mood shift. Five straight weeks is a different animal because it lasts long enough to chew through all of the short-term causes and start telling you something about positioning.

The cumulative five-week pull sat at around $3.8 billion at the time of writing, a record outflow streak for the recent cycle. A stretch of weekly outflows this long hasn't shown up since early 2025.
The macro backdrop is what gives it weight.

Trade policy has again begun influencing the crypto market. Uncertainty around tariffs has created a kind of headline-driven environment where a sudden repricing in one asset quickly affects everything else.

In circumstances like these, portfolios tend to get managed with much tighter guardrails. When volatility increases, managers cut what they can cut fast, creating a negative feedback loop that leads to even lower prices and outflows. The fact that they often tend to get back to the assets they cut first to reevaluate the strategy does little to calm the outflows.

Like it or not, Bitcoin lives in that “cut it fast” bucket, and ETF flows are one of the first places you see that decision show up.

The other comparison that keeps haunting this period is to gold. Gold has drawn safe-haven demand due to tariff uncertainty, with recent dollar weakness and geopolitical risk only increasing it.

But it doesn't mean Bitcoin has failed in this cycle. The market is obviously sorting assets by behavior, and Bitcoin has been behaving more like a risk position than a shelter.

When the ETF pipe stops buying, what replaces it?

To understand this, we need to drop the grand narratives and ask one question:

When Bitcoin drops 3% in a day, who shows up as the buyer that does not need persuasion?

In 2024, ETFs gave the market a clear answer. Inflows served as the default demand. They didn't require leverage, memes, or perfect sentiment, just a committee decision and a brokerage implementation.

But when that lane narrows, two concrete things happen.

First, the dip gets lonelier.

Without persistent ETF inflows, price discovery leans more on discretionary spot buyers and on liquidity providers who demand more compensation for taking the other side. That's why drawdowns feel sharper and recoveries can feel more reluctant, even when the news doesn't look that dramatic at all.

Second, outflows can carry real market force.

Redemptions aren't a reflection of the market's vibe; they're a mechanical shrinkage of institutional positions. Depending on how the product is structured and how participants hedge, a redemption can translate into actual Bitcoin being sold, hedges being adjusted, and basis positions being unwound.

The consequence looks the same from the outside: less support, more supply, and a weaker bounce.

We can tie Bitcoin’s rough patch to a broader cooling of US institutional participation, and say it was exacerbated by ETF outflows and an overall lighter positioning in regulated venues. You can disagree with the tone and framing of this, but it matches what the ETF tape is already saying.

This breaks the misconception that ETFs serve as a floor for Bitcoin. A floor requires a buyer who keeps buying. A buyer that exits for five consecutive weeks is a buyer who was always conditional.

What to watch?

To fully understand the implications of this, you need to look for four tells, and you need to know what each one means.

Watch the weekly net flow print. One positive week is a pulse, but two or three in a row is a channel reopening. If the weekly print turns consistently positive again, that suggests the institutional pipe is reopening. If it slips back into sustained negatives, rallies will likely feel like they're climbing without a handrail because the cleanest institutional pipe is still shrinking.

Watch how Bitcoin behaves on macro-red days. In a tariff-driven tape, equities move on headlines, rates reprice, and volatility jumps. When that happens, Bitcoin either holds up like a scarce asset or trades like risk beta.

Watch whether the price can rise without ETF inflows. If Bitcoin starts pushing higher while ETF flows are flat-to-negative, that tells you another buyer has taken the baton. Sometimes it's derivatives positioning resetting, and sometimes it's crypto-native spot demand returning. Either way, that is the moment it stops being purely about ETFs.

Watch the shape of the outflows. A slow drip is different from a sudden flush. A slow drip is allocation trimming, but a flush usually means forced selling or fast de-risking.

None of this will predict price, but it'll tell you whether the market’s biggest demand engine is running, idling, or reversing.

So what happens from here?

The answer is no longer as one-sided as it looked a week ago.

The five-week, $3.8 billion outflow streak marked a clear contraction in institutional positioning. But the tape since Feb. 20 has introduced a new variable: nearly $875.5 million in net inflows in just over a week.

That doesn’t negate the prior unwind, but it does suggest the institutional pipe isn’t broken, it may simply have been pressure-tested.

There are now three realistic paths forward.

1. The first is confirmation. If inflows continue for multiple weeks and begin stacking consistently, the five-week outflow run will look more like a positioning reset than a structural exit. In that scenario, ETFs resume acting as a steady allocation channel, Bitcoin holds up better during macro stress, and the recent wobble gets reframed as a volatility shakeout rather than a demand collapse.
2. The second path is fragility. A brief inflow bounce followed by renewed outflows would imply that last week’s creations were tactical rather than strategic, fast money reacting to price levels rather than long-horizon capital rebuilding exposure. If that happens, rallies may continue to feel heavy, especially in a tariff-sensitive macro environment where managers are quick to trim risk.
3. The third path is stabilization without acceleration. Flows flatten near zero, the extremes on both sides fade, and Bitcoin trades in a compression phase while positioning quietly rebuilds. That kind of sideways repair can be less dramatic but often more constructive, because it removes forced flows from the equation and allows price discovery to normalize.

The key shift is this: the market is no longer dealing with a one-directional ETF bleed. It is now testing whether the institutional demand engine is restarting.

The $3.8 billion drawdown was attention-grabbing. The more important question today is whether the marginal buyer has returned, and whether those buyers are early allocators rebuilding exposure, or simply traders stepping in front of a perceived floor.

ETF flows won’t predict price. But they will continue to signal whether Bitcoin’s cleanest institutional bid is expanding, idling, or slipping back into reverse. That’s the pipe that matters most when macro uncertainty turns the tape jumpy.

The post After Bitcoin ETFs drained $3.8 billion in five weeks it suddenly flipped positive, changing who controls the next move appeared first on CryptoSlate.

The post $BANK appeared first on CryptoSlate.

Bitcoin defends $64K after U.S., Israel strikes on Iran as ETF flows return to center stage

Bitcoin traded through a weekend macro shock after U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran sparked regional retaliation.

The largest price swings occurred during low-liquidity hours, leaving spot BTC back near the mid-$64,000 area.

The move reinforced a pattern that has become more visible in the ETF era: Bitcoin can function as a 24/7 pressure valve for macro risk.

At the same time, the deepest marginal liquidity increasingly concentrates in weekday, regulated venues.

That structural split is showing up in participation.

Weekend activity has capitulated ever since spot Bitcoin ETFs joined the market in 2024. Last week showed a particularly large drop-off, even as weekday trading levels have surged since the start of February, especially on Coinbase.

The shift can widen weekend air pockets and increase the chance of sharp reversals when geopolitical headlines hit.

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Feb 22, 2026 · Liam 'Akiba' Wright

It also keeps focus on Monday’s “next open” variables, especially the spot ETF create-redeem channel and the persistence of any risk premium in rates, FX, and energy.

If Monday sees US traders flood into ETFs as they did last week, Bitcoin could continue its recovery, especially if today's ‘lower high' holds through the rest of the weekend. However, if Bitcoin starts the week within the $63,000-$61,000 price band, a jittery market open could pull it down even further.

The CME angle remains part of trader positioning as well, with attention on CME weekend gaps that form when futures are closed but spot continues trading.

The next read-through is less about the weekend candle and more about how U.S. markets reprice risk when spot bitcoin ETFs reopen.

Our recent market coverage has highlighted renewed inflows, with reported multi-day ETF inflows topping $1 billion over three sessions even as price action remained choppy.

At the same time, positioning has stayed uneven.

Year-to-date net outflows stood at about $2.6 billion by mid-February, emphasizing why rebounds can be sharp but are capped when liquidity thins and headline risk rises.

Macro context also matters because this was not a one-off geopolitical tape.

Earlier in the week, trade policy uncertainty hit risk sentiment after the Supreme Court constrained Trump’s tariff authority under emergency powers, forcing a pivot in strategy.

In the aftermath, the Section 122 path and the flat 15% tariff reintroduced uncertainty around the U.S. trade outlook.

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Feb 22, 2026 · Gino Matos

Cross-asset reactions around that sequence, including gold’s move amid tariff uncertainty and the dollar's softness tied to trade uncertainty, framed bitcoin as part of a broader policy-risk complex rather than a crypto-only story.

For the Iran channel, markets tend to focus on energy flows because oil is the clearest transmission line from geopolitics into inflation expectations, yields, and the dollar.

That mix can tighten financial conditions for risk assets.

Axios’s breakdown of the energy pathway highlighted the Strait of Hormuz as a chokepoint, carrying about 25% of global maritime oil trade and about 20% of LNG shipments.

Separate reporting also put attention on crude sensitivity and the OPEC+ reaction function, which will shape whether weekend stress fades into relief or hardens into a rates-driven risk-off.

Against that backdrop, we can map the rebound around a small set of levels that separate “contained escalation” from “energy shock” outcomes.

Based on the levels visible in the move, the immediate battleground sits around the mid-$64,000s, with support shelves below and a resistance band near prior highs.

A contained-escalation path keeps the focus on whether bitcoin holds roughly $64,700 into the U.S. reopen and then recaptures $65,400.

That would put the $69,000 to $70,000 area back in play if ETF flow data stays constructive.

A more adverse path is tied to energy.

If crude gaps higher and stays bid, the market’s first reaction often runs through higher inflation pricing, firmer yields, and a stronger dollar, a mix that can pressure bitcoin even if the initial selloff already occurred.

In that case, a move below about $63,800 would concentrate attention on $62,850.

Broader round-number support becomes the next reference point if those shelves fail.

The post Bitcoin recovers instantly after Iran war crashes price but one Monday number could flip the next move appeared first on CryptoSlate.

Bitcoin is turning into multi-generational wealth, and a large share of holders still run it with a single point of failure. One accident, illness, or a stretch of incapacity can be the difference between inheriting generational wealth and losing everything.

That's the inheritance crisis the market will have to face.

A recent report from the Gannett Trust framed 2026 as the moment early adopters start “buttoning up” succession. The stakes have grown significantly, but families often have zero interest in learning private key operations, and too many people have watched real losses happen when the only person who understood the setup disappeared.

Bitcoin is permissionless money, until someone you love needs permission.

Bitcoin ownership is enforced by keys and authorization. Legal authority, good intentions, and perfectly drafted documents can't move coins. That makes inheritance in crypto harsher than inheritance in any other financial asset, and it creates a new kind of failure mode that doesn't exist in the same way anywhere else. Assets can stay visible on-chain forever, while the access is gone forever.

Millions of BTC are estimated to be permanently lost already, and inheritance is one of the many ways it happens.

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Jul 8, 2024 · Mike Dalton

Why is this a problem now?

For years, Bitcoin culture treated estate planning as something other people did, the kind of paperwork associated with banks, advisors, and surrendering control.

That assumption is fading as Bitcoin matures into a balance sheet asset and a family asset, and as holders run into normal life events that have nothing to do with markets.

The timing matters because the earliest cohorts of adopters are aging into the years when accidents, illness, cognitive decline, and caregiving responsibilities become real, while the underlying asset has also grown large enough to change a family’s financial future.

Mainstream guidance has converged on the same core point. If heirs don't have clear access instructions, crypto can become permanently inaccessible. Estate documents can establish intent and authority, and the asset still needs access credentials to move.

Bitcoin’s “be your own bank” model works brilliantly for individual control. But inheritance is group coordination under stress, and families rarely coordinate well under stress.

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Oct 16, 2019 · Priyeshu Garg

The biggest misconception

The biggest misconception people have is that planning equals giving up sovereignty.

Gannett's report argues the opposite. Planning can preserve control by making authority clear during incapacity, tightening the transfer path at death, and keeping the owner’s preferred custody model intact, including cases where the trust maker retains control of keys.

Estate planning comes with two risks that people usually blend together.

Custody risk is about who holds keys day to day, and what happens if that party abuses access, loses it, or gets compromised.

Continuity risk is about what happens when the key holder cannot act.

Many Bitcoiners try to eliminate custody risk by keeping everything in their own head and hands. That expands the continuity risk, because a family inherits confusion rather than a system. A plan that preserves sovereignty focuses on continuity without changing who controls the asset during life. It gives heirs a path that works in the real world, with clear authority, clear instructions, and a setup that anticipates human limits.

If your plan requires perfect memory, then it's not really a plan.

Lost Bitcoin keeps getting lost this way

People argue over how much Bitcoin is lost because lost is hard to prove. Dormant coins can look like patient holders, and coins locked behind missing keys look the same on-chain. There's no way to label death on the blockchain.

Even with that uncertainty, credible estimates place permanently lost Bitcoin in the millions. Ledger cites analysts, including Chainalysis, estimating roughly 2.3 million to 3.7 million BTC permanently lost as of 2025, with other estimates ranging even higher.

Inheritance isn't the only driver of lost supply, but it fits the same mechanism. Keys exist somewhere, the person who understood them disappears, and the asset becomes an unspendable monument.

Every year, Bitcoin becomes more valuable as a household asset; this failure mode becomes more expensive, and the number of families who discover the problem only after a crisis keeps growing.

On-chain visibility can outlive off-chain access.

A cautionary tale

QuadrigaCX remains the most widely understood illustration of key person dependency. In 2019, customers were locked out of a large pool of funds after the exchange's CEO, Gerry Cotten, died, with reporting describing a situation where he was the only person with the keys needed to access cold storage. Following his death, auditors found the cold wallets were empty for months before his death, adding a fraud layer to the story.

You don't need a full scandal like this to implement the lesson on inheritance planning. Whether it was incompetence or fraud, the operational failure mode was the same: one human, one set of keys, and a total lockout. A system built around one person’s private keys breaks when that person cannot act.

Legal paperwork can never recreate a missing key.

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Mar 1, 2019 · Mitchell Moos

The family Bitcoin playbook needs four answers

Inheritance planning in Bitcoin requires more than one document. It requires an operating system that answers four questions in a way a stressed family can execute, with enough structure to prevent chaos and enough restraint to avoid spraying sensitive information across too many hands.

1) Who has authority when I cannot act?
In traditional terms, this is incapacity planning. In crypto terms, it determines who gets to make decisions during a hospitalization, a cognitive decline, or a long recovery. A trust structure is a way to establish clear authority in incapacity and to coordinate transfers at death, so that the family is not improvising governance in the middle of a medical crisis.

2) Where is access information stored, and how is it retrieved safely?
This is the practical heart of the matter. Seeds, passphrases, PINs, device access, multisig policy, and any second factor constraints need an intentional storage plan that balances security with retrievability. It's important to document access information securely, in a way that the recovery process is understood and tested, because unreadable instructions are functionally the same as no instructions.

A secret that dies with you was never a system.

3) What constraints govern action?
A family needs guardrails, not just access. Who can move funds, when, for what purpose, and with whose consent? Trust language exists for exactly this reason. It turns vague intent into defined permissions, and it creates a decision framework that can hold up when emotions are high and incentives are messy.

4) How does the system survive turnover?
Executors and trustees change, families move, relationships break, and the person you trust today may not be the person your heirs trust in ten years. A durable design assumes replacement and makes replacement possible without exposing keys to unnecessary hands, while still preserving a clear chain of responsibility.

These questions sound procedural because they are procedural. Bitcoin turns inheritance into procedure, and procedure is what survives disruption.

Structure without surrender

Gannett’s practical bridge is the revocable living trust.

The report treats it as a tool that can improve continuity outcomes while preserving control, including private administration through probate avoidance and clearer authority in incapacity, while still allowing the owner to keep control of keys depending on how the structure is implemented.

That matters because many holders get stuck in a false choice: pure self-custody with no continuity plan, or full delegation to a custodian that holds the keys. The trust framing points to a third category, legal structure plus technical design that preserves the owner’s custody preferences while creating an executable path for heirs.

The technical design choices still matter, and practical approaches fall into two categories:
Single key custody with professionalized documentation keeps things simple. The plan lives or dies on how well access and authority are organized, whether instructions are legible, and whether someone can actually follow them in the real world without turning the home office into a forensic recovery lab.

Multisig with role separation adds complexity and also adds resilience, because one missing party no longer equals total failure. It can map more cleanly to family reality, where authority and responsibility get shared, and where a trusted professional can be part of a process without being the sole gatekeeper of funds.

Gannett also discusses collaborative custody models that aim to reduce loss risk while keeping control distributed, referencing approaches pioneered by Unchained.

You don't have to choose any of these vendors to understand the principle: separate roles, distribute keys, and require coordination, so that no single moment of chaos turns into permanent loss.

The human factor: heirs don't want to become security engineers

The most honest part of this story is that most families don't want the job of dealing with Bitcoin. They want clarity, permission, and a process that works without turning them into cryptographers.

That is why trusts and fiduciary structures are a good way to create continuity, not just transfer Bitcoin from one wallet to another. It's also why mainstream explainers keep urging people to name knowledgeable fiduciaries and to create secure, understandable instructions that can be executed later.

Quick test: if you were hit by a bus today, would your family know who is allowed to act, and where the actionable access path lives?

If the answer is that they would figure it out, that's not a plan, but a bet.

A plan that looks elegant on a whiteboard can still fail in practice if it relies on perfect memory, perfect secrecy, and perfect family coordination. Inheritance happens during disruption. The design has to survive disruption, and it has to survive the fact that most people are not trying to become security engineers in the middle of a crisis.

What a good inheritance plan looks like in 2026

The inheritance crisis doesn't need mass panic to be real. It shows up quickly but quietly, one household at a time, with coins that remain on chain and access that disappears off chain.

Gannett’s core claim is that 2026 becomes a turning point. Early Bitcoiners have started adopting tools for this and shedding the assumption that planning requires surrender. Inheritance planning is now becoming a part of holding Bitcoin at size, the same way secure custody became part of holding Bitcoin at size.

The readiness test isn't the size of your stack, but whether your system still works when you do not.

If the answer lives in one person’s memory, the system has a single point of failure. If the answer lives in a clear authority structure plus a recoverable access plan, sovereignty survives the owner, and Bitcoin finally becomes the multi-generational asset people claim it is.

The post Bitcoin’s self custody culture created an inheritance time bomb, and 2026 may be when it starts detonating appeared first on CryptoSlate.

The crypto market in early 2026 has been nothing short of a rollercoaster. After the euphoric highs of late 2025, where Bitcoin flirted with the $130,000 mark, a "diffuse cocktail of macro anxieties" has sent prices into a steep correction. As of late February 2026, $Bitcoin has retraced nearly 50% from its All-Time High (ATH), trading in the $63,000 to $70,000 range.

Is it a Good Time to Buy Crypto?

Historical cycles suggest that corrections of 50% to 70% are healthy "purges" that wipe out over-leveraged traders. With Bitcoin currently sitting at a 50% discount, the risk-to-reward ratio for March 2026 has shifted heavily in favor of the bulls.

As geopolitical tensions and tariff uncertainties stabilize, capital is expected to rotate back into "risk-on" assets. Investors who missed the 2025 rally now have a second chance to enter the market. If you are looking to build a portfolio, diversifying across these five projects offers a balance of stability, utility, and explosive recovery potential.

1. Ethereum (ETH) – The Infrastructure King

Despite the rise of "Ethereum killers," Ethereum remains the undisputed home of Decentralized Finance (DeFi) and Real-World Asset (RWA) tokenization. In 2026, the successful rollout of the "Prague" upgrade has further slashed Layer-2 costs, making the network more scalable than ever.

• Why Buy Now? ETH has followed Bitcoin’s slide, dropping from its 2025 high of $4,950 to under $2,000.
• The Catalyst: Major financial institutions like BlackRock and JPMorgan are increasingly using Ethereum for tokenized deposit pilots. At current prices, you are buying the "settlement layer of the internet" at a 60% discount.

2. Solana (SOL) – The Speed Demon

Solana has proven its resilience after the network reliability concerns of previous years. With the Firedancer upgrade now fully integrated in 2026, Solana can process over 1 million transactions per second.

• Status: While it reached $260 in the last bull run, SOL is currently trading significantly lower, creating a "gap" that savvy traders are eager to fill.
• Use Case: It has become the primary chain for consumer AI-crypto applications and high-frequency trading.

3. Chainlink (LINK) – The Oracle Essential

You cannot have a functional DeFi ecosystem without accurate data, and Chainlink owns 90% of that market. In 2026, its Cross-Chain Interoperability Protocol (CCIP) has become the standard for banks moving data between private and public blockchains.

• The Play: LINK often lags behind the initial BTC pump but rallies hard once the ecosystem matures. It is one of the most undervalued "blue-chip" utility tokens heading into March.

4. Sui (SUI) – The Emerging Contender

Sui has emerged as the breakout Layer-1 of the 2025-2026 cycle. Utilizing the Move programming language, it offers a level of security and parallel processing that older chains struggle to match.

• Growth Potential: Sui's Total Value Locked (TVL) has remained stable even during the February crash, suggesting a loyal and committed developer base. As the market recovers, SUI is positioned to be a top performer.

5. Fetch.ai (FET/ASI) – The AI Narrative

2026 is the year of "AI Agents." Fetch.ai, as part of the Artificial Superintelligence Alliance, is at the forefront of this movement. Their autonomous agents are now being used in logistics and decentralized energy grids.

• Why March 2026? The "AI plus Crypto" narrative is the strongest secular trend in the market. With FET down along with the broader market, it offers a high-beta play for those betting on the continued AI revolution.

Conclusion: Strategy for March 2026

Investing during a 50% Bitcoin drawdown requires a long-term mindset. While volatility may persist in the short term, the fundamental value of these projects remains unchanged. Consider using a regulated exchange to dollar-cost average into these positions throughout the month.

The geopolitical landscape of the Middle East shifted violently on March 1, 2026, as Iranian state media confirmed the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The 86-year-old cleric was reportedly killed during a massive military campaign involving US and Israeli airstrikes. While the world watches for a potential regional war, the digital asset market has reacted with surprising resilience.

Why are Crypto Prices Up?

Contrary to the "flight to safety" into gold and oil, the crypto market saw a sharp "relief rally" following the confirmation of the regime leader's death. Bitcoin (BTC), which had initially plummeted to $63,000 during the strikes, rebounded roughly 5%, reclaiming the $68,000 level. This suggests that traders may be pricing in the end of a regime that has long been a source of global instability and illicit financial flows.

The "Shadow" Crypto Economy of Iran

To understand the impact, one must distinguish between the two Iranian crypto economies:

• State-Sponsored Laundering: Used by the IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) to bypass sanctions and fund regional proxies.
• Citizen Survival: Used by ordinary Iranians to protect their savings from the collapsing Rial.

Historically, Iran has been a massive hub for crypto-enabled sanctions evasion. Reports from early 2026 indicated that nearly $1.7 billion moved through major exchanges like Binance to Iranian-backed groups.

US Surveillance and the Shrinking Laundering Pipeline

The death of Khamenei marks the beginning of what many analysts believe will be a period of unprecedented US surveillance and "Operation Epic Fury." With the supreme authority gone, the centralized networks used by the IRGC to move funds are expected to shrink.

• Increased Oversight: The US Treasury (OFAC) is already tightening the noose on "shadow banking" networks in Hong Kong and the UAE that facilitated Iranian crypto transfers.
• Exchange Compliance: Major platforms are under immense pressure to freeze any accounts linked to the Iranian leadership council.

The Result: A significant reduction in "toxic" liquidity. While this might lower total transaction volumes, it improves the long-term legitimacy and regulatory standing of the broader crypto market.

Is This Significant for the Global Crypto Market?

In the short term, the answer is "not so much" in terms of total market cap. While Iran's crypto ecosystem reached approximately $8 billion in 2025, this represents only a fraction of the global $3 trillion market.

"Bitcoin acted as a liquidity pressure valve during the weekend escalation," noted analysts at 10x Research. "The real price discovery happens on Monday when Bitcoin ETFs and US equity markets reopen."

However, the psychological impact is profound. The removal of a key player in the "axis of sanctions evasion" removes a major talking point for anti-crypto regulators in Washington.

A Mixed Bag for Digital Assets

The killing of Khamenei is a double-edged sword for the industry. While it triggers short-term volatility and risks a wider conflict involving the Strait of Hormuz, it also promises a future where crypto is less associated with state-sponsored money laundering.

Investors seeking immediate clarity on the price action saw Bitcoin ($BTC) tumble from the $65,000 level to a local low of $63,038 within an hour of the first confirmed strikes. However, as unconfirmed reports surfaced suggesting that Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was eliminated in the strikes, the market sentiment shifted from fear of escalation to a speculative "regime change" rally, pushing BTC back toward the $67,000 mark.

From $63k to $67k: The Anatomy of a Geopolitical Dip

The initial reaction to the strikes, codenamed "Operation Roaring Lion," was a classic "risk-off" move. As explosions were reported near Tehran, traders liquidated leveraged positions, leading to over $128 billion being wiped from the total crypto market cap.

• The Dip: Bitcoin dropped 3.8% to hit $63,038.
• The Catalyst: Confirmed airstrikes on Iranian nuclear and military infrastructure.
• The Recovery: Prices surged past $65,000 and reached $67,000 as rumors of Khamenei's death gained traction on social media and certain Israeli news outlets like Channel 12.

While the Iranian government has officially denied these reports, claiming the Supreme Leader is in a "secure location," the market has historically reacted positively to the potential removal of geopolitical bottlenecks.

Why Bitcoin Price Reacts to Middle East Instability

In the current 2026 economic landscape, Bitcoin has often behaved more like a "high-beta" tech asset rather than "digital gold." Geopolitical shocks typically trigger an immediate liquidity drain in crypto as investors flee to traditional havens like physical gold, which recently hit an all-time high of $5,595.

However, the speed of the BTC recovery suggests that crypto remains the primary tool for "weekend hedging." Since traditional stock markets are closed, the 24/7 nature of the crypto market makes it the first responder to global breaking news.

Bitcoin Price Analysis: Resistance and Support

Despite the recovery to $67,000, Bitcoin remains in a broader correction phase from its 2025 peak of $126,000.

The current "short squeeze" risk remains high. If the news of the Iranian leadership's status is officially confirmed, analysts anticipate a potential run toward the $70,000 zone. Conversely, if Iran launches a "crushing response" as promised by state media, a retest of the $60,000 support is likely.

Turbulent geopolitical events are rattling financial markets — and the crypto sector is no exception. On February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched coordinated military strikes against Iran, a significant escalation in long-standing Middle East tensions that has wide-reaching implications for global markets. Major airlines have halted flights over the region as conflict intensifies, and world leaders urge diplomacy to prevent broader war.

This surge in geopolitical risk has led to risk-off sentiment across many assets, including cryptocurrencies. Investors are shifting toward safe-haven assets like gold and the U.S. dollar, prompting sell-offs in riskier digital assets.

Why Are Cryptos Falling?

The markets are reacting to a sudden escalation in conflict after the U.S. and Israel conducted military strikes inside Iran. This has:

1. Increased global geopolitical risk, a key driver of asset price swings.
2. Triggered flight to safety, dampening demand for risk assets like crypto.
3. Upended investor confidence across equities, commodities, and digital assets.

With airlines cancelling flights and political alliances issuing global statements, uncertainty remains high. Economic instability often leads traders to move capital into safer instruments, which can put downward pressure on cryptos, especially altcoins.

Below are the top five cryptocurrencies that have fallen the most in the past 24 hours — likely influenced by these macro concerns:

Top 5 Cryptos by Biggest 24-Hour Losses

1. Stable (STABLE)

• Price: $0.03085
• 24h Change: -14.71%
• Market Cap: $543M

Despite a relatively strong position, STABLE saw the most significant drop, suggesting broader market flight from even stablecoin-linked assets.

2. Decred (DCR)

• Price: $29.78
• 24h Change: -14.10%
• Market Cap: $515M

Decred’s large decline underscores traders pulling back from mid-cap cryptos during heightened uncertainty.

3. KuCoin Token (KCS)

• Price: $7.55
• 24h Change: -10.13%
• Market Cap: $998M

Even exchange-linked assets like KCS saw notable losses, indicating broad risk aversion.

4. Arbitrum (ARB)

• Price: $0.09386
• 24h Change: -8.35%
• Market Cap: $557M

Layer-2 tokens tied to DeFi activity and sentiment tend to be more volatile — and ARB’s drop reflects downturns in both sectors.

5. Aptos (APT)

• Price: $0.8915
• 24h Change: -7.11%
• Market Cap: $695M

Still in the top 5 losers, Aptos likely felt pressure from the overall market pullback.

Crypto Future Outlook

While crypto markets are known for volatility, major global events like military conflicts can sharply amplify risk aversion:

➡️ Short term: Expect continued volatility and potential further downside if conflict escalates.
➡️ Long term: If tensions cool and diplomacy regains traction, risk assets including crypto could recover.

Markets often reflect not just fundamentals, but sentiment, and right now sentiment is skewed toward caution.

The possibility of an XRP crash to $1 is no longer a distant bearish theory but a looming technical reality. As geopolitical instability drives investors toward traditional safe havens like gold and US Treasuries, altcoins are being offloaded at an accelerated rate. If the current psychological support levels fail to hold against the backdrop of a regional war, a revisit to the $1.00 mark is the primary target for the short-to-medium term.

The GCC Connection: Why This War Hits Crypto Hard

The current conflict has moved beyond isolated border skirmishes. Iran’s retaliation has reportedly impacted sectors within the GCC, a region that has become a global hub for crypto liquidity and high-net-worth investment firms.

Impact on Institutional Liquidity

Many "whales" and venture capital firms operating out of Dubai and Abu Dhabi are facing unprecedented operational uncertainty. When regional stability is threatened, the immediate reaction is a flight to liquidity. This shift leads to:

• Aggressive Sell-offs: Large-scale exits from high-beta assets like XRP to cover margins or move to cash.
• Reduced Market Depth: Liquidity providers may widen spreads or pull back entirely, leading to higher volatility.
• Network Infrastructure Concerns: Potential disruptions to banking rails in the Middle East that utilize the XRP Ledger for cross-border settlements.

XRP Price Analysis: The Descent Toward $1

Based on the below technical chart, XRP has broken below its primary ascending support line. The price is currently struggling to maintain its footing as sell volume spikes.

Key Technical Levels to Watch

"Risk-Off" vs. "Safe Haven"

In financial markets, a "Risk-Off" environment occurs when investors avoid assets with high volatility due to macroeconomic or geopolitical uncertainty. Despite the narrative of some tokens acting as "Digital Gold," recent price action confirms that XRP and most altcoins still trade as high-risk assets. They are typically the first to be sold during a war-induced panic, while Safe Havens like Gold or the USD see inflows.

The broader market is already feeling the pinch. Bitcoin has faced significant downward pressure as news of U.S. involvement in regional strikes hit the wires. Historically, when BTC drops, altcoins experience magnified losses. For XRP, which was already facing technical exhaustion, the war serves as the fundamental "black swan" event that could force a test of the $1.00 support level.

Backpack co-founder Can Sun said the exchange's upcoming token-to-equity conversion program threads the needle on securities laws.

The price of Bitcoin plummeted to nearly $63,000 overnight amid U.S. and Israel strikes on Iran, but has mostly recovered in the hours since.

The proposed rules would limit the ability of third parties to pass stablecoin rewards on to users, but experts are split on what the language could mean for America’s top crypto firms.

President Trump gave government agencies six months to phase out Anthropic's products after a clash over military safeguards.

Publicly traded banking giant Barclays is considering making a push into crypto payments and deposits, according to a report from Bloomberg.

Shiba Inu lead ambassador Shytoshi Kusama has changed his location on X, triggering update speculations.

Ripple's 1 billion XRP unlock on March 1 meets a struggling market as February ends with a 16% drop for the price of the cryptocurrency.

XRP saw a serious inflow to the futures market, which is one of the main signs of recovering volatility.

Michael Saylor is trying his best to keep his company attractive to those who chase Bitcoin exposure on an institutional level.

New restrictions on Musk's social network, double-digit growth for Shiba Inu (SHIB) in March, Cardano creator Hoskinson teasing "even more" for Cardano — this is how the new month starts for crypto this morning.

Key Takeaways

• February 2026 saw BYD’s NEV sales plunge 41.1% compared to the previous year, representing the most severe contraction since February 2020.
• The automaker has now experienced six months in a row of declining sales figures.
• NEV manufacturing output and sales volumes both contracted approximately 38% versus February 2025.
• The passenger vehicle segment experienced the most significant impact.
• International shipments reached 100,600 NEVs, while battery manufacturing capacity maintained strength.

The Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer BYD has reported its most dramatic monthly sales contraction in six years, with February figures showing a 41.1% year-over-year decrease. This alarming trend extends the company’s sales downturn to half a year.

BYD Company Limited, BYDDY

The magnitude of this decline hasn’t been witnessed since February 2020, during the initial economic disruption caused by the coronavirus pandemic.

According to a regulatory disclosure published over the weekend, both manufacturing and sales of new energy vehicles contracted by roughly 38% when compared to the same period in 2025.

The passenger vehicle category bore the brunt of the downturn, although BYD opted not to provide granular segment-level data in its official filing.

These disappointing results emerge despite the company’s commanding presence in the worldwide electric vehicle sector and its aggressive expansion into foreign territories.

International Sales Provide Limited Relief

In terms of overseas distribution, BYD delivered 100,600 NEVs internationally during February, a metric the manufacturer identified as a relative positive amid otherwise challenging circumstances.

Battery manufacturing operations remained resilient. BYD emphasized its installed capacity for NEV power systems and energy storage batteries as indicators of sustained operational scale, despite the contraction in vehicle unit sales.

The organization seems to be relying increasingly on its battery division and international operations to counterbalance weaker performance in its home market.

It’s important to recognize that February traditionally represents a slower sales period for China’s automotive industry, primarily due to Lunar New Year celebrations that reduce operational days and showroom activity.

While this seasonal pattern occurs annually, the magnitude of the current downturn remains striking even when factoring in these calendar-related considerations.

Financial Performance Indicators

BYD’s year-to-date stock performance reflects a modest decline of -0.42% at the time of the regulatory submission, with the company maintaining a market capitalization of HK$890 billion.

Daily trading activity averages approximately 21.5 million shares.

Technical analysis indicators currently suggest a Buy rating for the equity.

The latest analyst coverage for HK:1211 also recommends a Buy position, establishing a target price of HK$130.00.

The extended six-month pattern of declining monthly sales volumes prompts concerns regarding short-term market demand, especially within China’s domestic market where rivalry among electric vehicle manufacturers has grown increasingly fierce.

BYD’s February 2026 regulatory submission verified that aggregate NEV production and sales both decreased by approximately 38% on an annual basis, with international shipments totaling 100,600 vehicles and battery division capacity characterized as robust.

The post BYD Faces Steepest Sales Decline in Six Years During February Slump appeared first on Blockonomi.

Key Takeaways

• Joint U.S.-Israel military operations against Iran over the weekend inject fresh geopolitical risk into financial markets
• Major indices declined through the week; Bitcoin retreated toward $66,000 as gold advanced to $2,596
• February employment report releases Friday; prior month revealed 130,000 new positions, exceeding analyst expectations by over 100%
• Critical earnings announcements include Broadcom, CrowdStrike, Costco, and Target
• Apple begins product rollout Monday, with special presentation scheduled for midweek

Equity markets finished the week in negative territory as artificial intelligence and entertainment sector stocks produced volatile swings. The S&P 500 registered losses for the trading day, week, and February overall.

The Nasdaq 100 similarly declined, while the Dow Jones dropped 1.05%. Treasury yields on 10-year notes pulled back to 3.95%.

Bitcoin descended toward $66,000 as the week concluded. Gold advanced to $2,596 per ounce and crude oil climbed to $67.29 per barrel.

During the weekend, coordinated U.S. and Israeli forces executed military strikes against Iranian targets. President Trump issued statements encouraging regime change in Iran, prompting retaliatory strikes from Iran targeting Israeli territory and Gulf region nations.

Crude oil prices had already been climbing throughout the week on mounting Iran-related tensions. Additional escalation could drive energy prices higher, impacting sectors including energy production, transportation, and defense manufacturing.

Employment Data Takes Priority

The February employment situation report publishes Friday. January’s report revealed employers added 130,000 positions, substantially exceeding economist projections.

That report also included downward revisions to previous months, indicating early 2025 job creation was softer than initially calculated. The Federal Reserve maintains its policy rate at 3.5% to 3.75% as market participants monitor for signs of labor market deceleration.

Unemployment is anticipated to remain near 4.4%. A softer reading could reignite speculation about potential rate reductions in March or May.

The postponed January retail sales data also releases Friday. December figures showed consumer spending momentum stalled as the year ended, with subdued employment growth identified as a contributing factor.

Corporate Results Continue Rolling In

Broadcom announces results Wednesday with analysts projecting approximately $19.22 billion in quarterly revenue. The company indicated in December that artificial intelligence-related sales would experience a doubling during the period.

CrowdStrike delivers its report Tuesday. Software companies face headwinds from concerns about AI-driven disruption, though certain analysts view artificial intelligence as creating expansion opportunities in cybersecurity.

Marvell Technology follows on Thursday. Market watchers will scrutinize AI semiconductor demand following Nvidia’s exceptional quarter featuring $68.1 billion in Q4 sales.

Target announces results Tuesday under recently appointed CEO Michael Fiddelke, who assumed leadership last month. Target’s stock price has rebounded in recent months following a challenging 2025.

Costco releases earnings Thursday. The retailer’s shares have similarly shown improvement in 2026 after experiencing declines the prior year.

Netflix stock surged 13.82% over the past week after Warner Bros. Discovery accepted a $31-per-share acquisition proposal from Paramount Skydance, rejecting Netflix’s competing bid. Netflix declined to increase its offer and withdrew from consideration.

Apple anticipates unveiling new products beginning Monday, potentially including the iPhone 17 and an affordably priced MacBook. A dedicated special event is confirmed for Wednesday.

The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book publishes Wednesday in advance of the central bank’s March 17-18 policy meeting.

Marvell Technology’s quarterly results are scheduled for release Thursday, March 5.

The post Market Outlook: Geopolitical Risks, Employment Data, and Tech Earnings Take Center Stage appeared first on Blockonomi.

Key Takeaways

• Jim Cramer advises maintaining CVX positions, highlighting the 3.85% dividend yield and company reliability
• Earnings per share reached $1.52, surpassing projections by $0.08, despite a 10.2% revenue decline year-over-year
• Dividend payment increased to $1.78 quarterly ($7.12 annualized, approximately 3.8% yield)
• Institutional investors expanded holdings; institutions now control 72.42% of outstanding shares
• Company insiders divested $89.5M in stock during the previous quarter; Wall Street consensus remains “Hold” at $176.36 target

Chevron (CVX) continues capturing market attention as shares advanced 1.3% to $186.47 during Friday’s opening session — approaching the 52-week peak of $187.90 and generating discussion among professional analysts and individual investors alike.

Chevron Corporation, CVX

During a recent broadcast segment, Jim Cramer advised a viewer to maintain their CVX holdings. “I think it can go up a lot,” Cramer stated, emphasizing the dividend returns and what he characterized as Chevron’s “consistency.”

Cramer additionally mentioned Chevron’s Venezuelan operations as a potential catalyst, calling it a “kicker” that could drive future appreciation.

Quarterly Dividend Sees Increase

Chevron announced an increase to its quarterly dividend distribution, moving from $1.71 to $1.78 per share. On an annualized basis, this equals $7.12 — translating to approximately 3.8% yield. Shareholders registered by February 17 will receive payment on March 10.

The current dividend payout ratio stands at 106.91%, indicating the company distributes more in dividends than current earnings support — a metric investors should monitor carefully.

Revenue Underperforms While EPS Exceeds Expectations

Chevron’s January 30 quarterly earnings revealed EPS of $1.52, topping the $1.44 analyst consensus. Revenue figures told a different story at $45.79 billion, falling short of the anticipated $48.18 billion and representing a 10.2% year-over-year decline.

The company reported a net margin of 6.51% alongside a 7.89% return on equity. Wall Street projects full-year EPS of $10.79.

The year-over-year earnings comparison presents challenges — Chevron delivered $2.06 EPS during the equivalent quarter in the prior year.

Institutional Investment Expands

Multiple institutional stakeholders expanded their CVX allocations during the third quarter. Trivium Point Advisory LLC increased holdings by 73.9%, acquiring an additional 6,855 units for a total of 16,131 valued near $2.5 million.

American Century Companies led institutional buying activity, adding 810,086 units — representing a 45.6% increase — elevating their total position to 2,586,278 shares worth approximately $401.6 million.

Berkshire Hathaway similarly increased its Chevron stake in the period following Warren Buffett’s leadership transition.

Institutional ownership currently represents 72.42% of total shares.

Insider Activity Shows Significant Selling

While institutions accumulated shares, company insiders moved in the opposite direction. During the most recent quarter, insiders sold 534,898 units totaling $89.5 million.

Vice Chairman Mark A. Nelson divested 45,800 units on February 2 at an average price of $174.17, reducing his stake by 86.48%. Insider Andrew Benjamin Walz sold 1,463 units on February 18 at $183.83 per share.

Company insiders collectively own merely 0.21% of Chevron.

Wall Street Analyst Perspectives

Analyst viewpoints vary considerably. UBS maintains a buy recommendation with a $212 price objective. BMO Capital Markets reiterated an outperform rating with a $190 target. JPMorgan elevated CVX from neutral to overweight, assigning a $176 target.

Conversely, one discounted cash flow analysis suggested CVX trades at approximately 30% above fair value, placing intrinsic worth around $126.

The aggregate rating from 24 analysts points to “Hold” with a mean price target of $176.36 — beneath current trading levels.

CVX’s 50-day moving average registers at $169.52 while the 200-day average sits at $159.57. The stock carries a $372 billion market capitalization, trades at a PE ratio of 28, and exhibits a beta of 0.70.

The post Chevron Stock Analysis: Why Jim Cramer Advises Holding CVX Despite Insider Sales appeared first on Blockonomi.

TLDR:

• Polymarket recorded $478M in notional daily trading volume on the day of the U.S.-Israel joint strikes on Iran.

• The politics category alone reached $220M, making up 46.2% of Polymarket’s total notional trading volume that day.

• Polymarket Builders also achieved a single-day trading volume record high during the same historic trading session.

• Bubblemaps flagged six insider-linked wallets that collectively profited approximately $1.2M from conflict-related prediction bets.
  

Geopolitical tensions between the United States, Israel, and Iran pushed Polymarket to record-breaking territory in a single trading session.

The decentralized prediction market platform recorded $478 million in notional daily trading volume on the day joint strikes were carried out.

The politics category alone reached $220 million, marking its own all-time high. Bubblemaps also flagged at least six insider-linked wallets that collectively profited around $1.2 million from conflict-related bets.

Conflict-Driven Activity Sends Polymarket Volume to Historic Levels

Geopolitical tensions have long influenced financial markets, and prediction platforms are no exception. The day U.S. and Israeli forces carried out joint strikes on Iran, traders flooded Polymarket with positions tied to conflict outcomes. The resulting activity broke every previous daily volume record the platform had recorded.

Crypto analyst @defioasis published on-chain data capturing the full scope of that trading session. According to the data, the politics sector contributed $220 million, accounting for 46.2% of Polymarket’s total notional volume that day. Polymarket Builders also set its own single-day trading record during the same period.

The data from @defioasis showed how rapidly capital moved in response to breaking geopolitical developments. Traders positioned themselves across a range of conflict-related markets as the news of the strikes spread.

The surge reflected a growing pattern of real-world events directly shaping decentralized prediction market behavior.

Insider Wallet Activity Raises Concerns Around Conflict Bets

As trading volume climbed, Bubblemaps identified unusual wallet activity connected to the Iran-related prediction markets.

At least six addresses with insider-linked characteristics were traced through blockchain analytics tools. Those wallets reportedly generated approximately $1.2 million in combined profits from the conflict bets.

The timing of the wallet movements drew attention across the crypto community. Positions appeared to have been opened in proximity to the strikes, prompting questions about early access to information.

Bubblemaps used on-chain transparency data to surface the connection between those addresses and the relevant markets.

Decentralized prediction markets operate without traditional gatekeepers, which creates both openness and risk. The pseudonymous nature of blockchain activity makes it harder to enforce accountability, though it does not hide patterns entirely. Analytics firms like Bubblemaps remain essential for tracking and publicly reporting such activity.

Geopolitical tensions surrounding the U.S.-Israel strike on Iran proved to be a defining catalyst for Polymarket. The platform processed close to half a billion dollars in notional trades within one 24-hour window.

The event further cemented how global conflicts continue to drive participation and trading volume across decentralized prediction markets.

The post Polymarket Hits $478M Record as U.S.-Israel Iran Strikes Fuel Massive Geopolitical Betting Surge appeared first on Blockonomi.

Key Takeaways

• Military strikes by the U.S. and Israel resulted in the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei, sparking concerns about major disruptions to global oil transit routes.
• The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued warnings against vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage handling 20–26% of worldwide crude shipments and substantial LNG flows.
• Market analysts project Brent crude prices approaching $100 per barrel; extended hostilities may contribute 0.6–0.7 percentage points to worldwide inflation metrics.
• Shipping companies including Frontline and DHT Holdings have experienced substantial gains this year, with charter rates already reaching levels not seen in years.
• Bitcoin declined 2% following the strikes and has shed more than 25% over two months, while traditional safe-haven assets like gold, U.S. Treasuries, and the Swiss franc attract investor capital.

Saturday’s coordinated military operations by Washington and Tel Aviv against Iranian targets claimed the life of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, immediately rippling through global commodity, equity, and cryptocurrency markets.

Following the offensive, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued navigation warnings for the Strait of Hormuz. This narrow waterway serves as the transit corridor for approximately 26% of the world’s crude oil and 23% of global liquefied natural gas shipments.

Brent crude closed Friday’s session near $73 per barrel, having already climbed roughly 20% year-to-date. Market watchers anticipate further price appreciation when trading resumes Sunday evening.

Barclays analysts project Brent could touch $100 per barrel as traders assess potential supply chain interruptions. Capital Economics suggests even a limited confrontation could drive prices toward the $80 threshold.

Iran’s daily production stands at approximately 3.3 to 3.5 million barrels, representing roughly 3% of worldwide output. The nation’s primary export facility at Kharg Island processes nearly 90% of these shipments, and multiple explosions have been documented in that region.

Qatar’s entire LNG export volume, accounting for about 20% of global liquefied natural gas trade, must also pass through the Strait. No viable alternative shipping lanes exist. A blockade would compel Asian consumers to enter bidding wars with European buyers for available U.S. supply on spot markets.

Goldman Sachs modeling indicates that removing one million barrels daily of Iranian exports for twelve months would elevate prices approximately $8 per barrel. Rystad Energy forecasts price increases between $10 and $15 per barrel should the conflict expand.

Maritime Transport Equities Rally on Rate Forecasts

Shipping sector stocks have already incorporated significant risk premium. Frontline shares have climbed 74% in 2026, DHT Holdings has advanced 60%, and Ardmore Shipping has posted 55% gains. By comparison, the S&P 500 has risen just 0.5% during the identical timeframe.

Frontline disclosed that it secured 92% of its first-quarter VLCC spot capacity at an average daily rate of $107,100. Evercore analyst Jonathan Chappell elevated his price objective on the stock from $31 to $42.

During the 1991 Gulf War, very large crude carrier charter rates surged more than 40%. Throughout the 2003 Iraq invasion, rates climbed as much as 304%.

Cryptocurrency Weakens as Traditional Safe Havens Strengthen

Bitcoin dropped 2% Saturday and has now surrendered more than a quarter of its value across the previous two months. Market analysts indicate it has lost its status as a haven during crisis periods.

Gold has appreciated 22% in 2026 and continues attracting capital inflows. The Swiss franc has strengthened 3% versus the dollar year-to-date. U.S. Treasury yields have been declining in recent trading sessions.

The VIX volatility gauge has increased by one-third this year. Several major oil producers and commodity trading firms have already halted crude shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.

The post Strait of Hormuz Closure Threatens Global Oil Markets as Iran Conflict Escalates appeared first on Blockonomi.

Although they have ended the underwhelming zero-inflow-day streak, the spot XRP ETFs are still far away from their initial glory in terms of net inflows.

At the same time, the underlying asset continues to fight with BNB for the fourth spot in the cryptocurrency market cap ranking, but it sits inches below a crucial resistance.

Ripple ETF Inflows Still Missing

CryptoPotato has reported on several occasions on the diminishing activity on the XRP ETF front. The financial vehicles saw under $8 million in net inflows during the trading week that ended on February 13, and less than $2 million in the following one. Moreover, it had three days with zero inflows during this time, a streak that extended to February 23.

However, investors finally picked up the pace in the next four trading days, albeit in a very modest manner. The net inflows stood at $3.04 million on Tuesday, $3.09 million on Wednesday, $1.22 million on Thursday, and $2.21 million on Friday. Overall, the week ended in the green, with $9.55 million entering the funds.

This modest amount is in stark contrast to the initial boom. After the first XRP-focused ETF went live for trading in mid-November, investors were rushing to pour funds into it and the four more such products that followed. Consequently, the cumulative net inflows skyrocketed to the $1 billion mark within a month since Canary Capital’s XRPC saw the light of day.

Since then, though, the trend has seemingly changed. The total net inflows stand at $1.24 billion now, which means that only $240 million has entered the funds in over two months.

XRP Fights BNB

Saturday was an eventful day in the crypto markets due to the strikes against Iran and the subsequent retaliation. XRP was not immune as it dumped from $1.43 to $1.27 before it rebounded to its starting point after reports that Iran’s Supreme Leader was killed during the attacks.

Popular crypto analyst CryptoWZRD noted that the asset had closed with a “dragonfly doji candle and respected the $1.30 daily support.” They believe XRP could continue higher only if it manages to close weekly above $1.3820. As of press time, the asset trades inches below that line. However, it has retaken its fourth place in terms of market cap from BNB after a quick flip on Saturday.

XRP Daily Technical Outlook:$XRP closed with a dragonfly doji candle and respected the $1.3000 Daily support. However, anything is possible due to geopolitics. Tomorrow is the Weekly transition. Above the $1.3820 resistance it can push higher if the breakout remains stable pic.twitter.com/YJaJyp0DTt

— CRYPTOWZRD (@cryptoWZRD_) March 1, 2026

The post Is the Ripple ETF Hype Over? Inflows Disappoint as XRP Fights for $1.40 appeared first on CryptoPotato.

The positive start to 2026 was quickly erased, and bitcoin began to lose value rapidly, reaching new local lows of $60,000 in early February.

Although it recovered some ground since those 15-month lows, it still ended the month in the red with a painful double-digit decline. This made it five in a row.

February Deep in Red As Well

It was almost impossible to imagine the current situation in early October. At the time, bitcoin’s price was riding high, charting fresh peaks at over $126,000, and the community was anticipating even more records during the so-called ‘Uptober.’ The reality, though, was far different and brutal.

On October 10, the cryptocurrency market experienced its worst single-day liquidation event, with more than $19 billion wrecked as prices tumbled. As many analysts claimed after that pivotal day, something in the market’s structure broke, and it was never the same.

Bitcoin started to chart frequent losses and dumped to a five-digit price territory by the end of the year. It ended 2025 in the red, making it the first post-halving year to do so. January began on the right foot, but the rejection at $98,000 resulted in another nosedive. Thus, January saw losses of just over 10%.

Another massive crash occurred in early February, pushing bitcoin south to its lowest level since October 2024 at $60,000. Although it rebounded and finished February at around $65,000-$66,000, it still ended the month with a 15% decline. This made it the fifth consecutive month in the red for the first time since 2018.

Ethereum Goes a Step Further

Data from Cryptorank shows that the landscape around the world’s largest altcoin is even more painful. ETH has been in the red for six months in a row. Moreover, it has been in the green only three out of the past 15 months.

January and February were quite violent, with a 17.7% decline during the first month of the year and a whopping 19.6% drop in the second. This is the worst monthly streak for ETH since 2018, when it was in the red for seven consecutive months.

ETH is currently fighting to stay above $2,000 after dipping below that level on numerous occasions in the past month.

The post 5 Straight Months of Losses: Bitcoin Suffers Yet Another Double-Digit Slide appeared first on CryptoPotato.

The US and Israel carried out a rapid and violent military operation in Iran on February 28, which, according to reports, killed its Supreme Leader.

Iranian forces already retaliated against several countries in the region, and these developments led to significant volatility in the cryptocurrency market during the weekend.

With Trump warning that the military operation could continue further if Iran doesn’t back down, the question now is whether more fluctuations will ensue and in which direction. In this article, we focused on XRP and asked ChatGPT about its take on the matter.

Initial Shock

OpenAI’s solution also brought up the initial geopolitical shock, which is expected to harm most financial assets, especially risk-on options like altcoins, as investors tend to de-risk.

“That means moving money out of volatile assets (like cryptocurrencies) and into traditional safe havens such as gold or government bonds. This has already happened in recent responses to the US-Iran conflict. Historically, crypto markets don’t always behave like safe havens. Research on past conflicts (like Russia-Ukraine) shows cryptocurrencies often act as high-beta speculative assets, experiencing more volatility rather than absorbing risk like gold.”

Consequently, ChatGPT said the bearish pressure increases immediately for altcoins such as XRP. It added that institutional liquidity is typically withdrawn in similar uncertainty, and Ripple’s cross-border token could see new local lows of under $1.00. Recall that the asset has not traded below that level for a year and a half, but it could drop if the situation worsens in the following days.

Chances for a Rally?

Although it dismissed the chances for a quick rally given the aforementioned shock, ChatGPT noted that it’s not impossible for the mid- to long-term. To do so, though, at least one of the following three factors needs to happen.

• Demand for digital assets as a store of value is increasing
• Sharp reversal for risk-on assets, such as larger-cap altcoins.
• Major regulatory or adoption news tailored for XRP

“In other words, XRP could surge if the market’s focus shifts away from war risk toward crypto fundamentals.”

Overall, though, ChatGPT believes the short-term bias (in the first few weeks) will remain bearish, but once the shock passes or the geopolitical tensions ease, XRP could be on the verge of a breakout rally.

The post We Asked AI: Will XRP’s Price Soar or Crash Amid Middle East War Tensions? appeared first on CryptoPotato.

The United States Department of Justice (DOJ) has arrested Christopher Alexander Delgado, the 34-year-old executive of the purported venture capital firm, Goliath Ventures, for allegedly perpetrating a crypto Ponzi scheme that defrauded investors of roughly $328 million.

According to a press release from the U.S. Attorney’s Office in the Middle District of Florida, Delgado was the president and CEO of Goliath Ventures, formerly called Gen-Z Venture Firm.

DOJ Arrests Man Behind $328M Ponzi

The complaint filed against Delgado accused him of wire fraud and money laundering. The former CEO ran the scheme from January 2023 through January 2026, claiming to invest victims’ funds in crypto liquidity pools.

Delgado promised investors monthly returns while soliciting substantial investments. His victims came from charitable sponsorships, luxury events, professional marketing materials, and personal referrals. To make the scheme appear legitimate, the former Goliath president made some monthly payments to investors as purported returns.

While claiming to invest victims’ funds in crypto protocols, Delgado ran Goliath as a classic Ponzi scheme. He used funds contributed by new investors to pay existing clients, a method that enabled him to garner over $328 million from victims. Besides returning capital to those who requested it, Goliath also used victims’ funds to host lavish business gatherings and holiday parties and to pay for luxury travel accommodations.

Additionally, Delgado spent between $1.15 million and $8.5 million to acquire four residential properties, all of which were purchased with victims’ funds.

Delgado Still Under Investigation

While Delgado awaits trial, the U.S. government has asked Goliath victims to reach out for appropriate proceedings under the Crime Victims’ Rights Act.

The case is still under investigation by the Homeland Security Investigations and the Internal Revenue Service Criminal Investigation. If found guilty of all the charges, Delgado faces a maximum sentence of 30 years in federal prison.

Meanwhile, he is not the only company executive recently apprehended for running a crypto Ponzi scheme. As reported last week by CryptoPotato, a U.S. court sentenced Ramil Ventura Palafox, CEO of Praetorian Group International (PGI), to 20 years behind bars for defrauding at least 90,000 investors of $200 million through a Bitcoin-based Ponzi scheme. The 61-year-old Palafox falsely claimed PGI was involved in Bitcoin trading while defrauding investors.

The post U.S. Authorities Arrest Goliath Ventures Executive for Alleged $328M Crypto Ponzi Scheme appeared first on CryptoPotato.

It goes without saying that the clock is officially ticking. We’re already in March, meaning that the close of the first quarterly window is upon us, and millions of people holding the native token of Pi Network are wondering: what will the PI price be?

Well, we’ve produced countless reports based on the thoughts of prominent and well-known analysts in the space, but for this one, we turned to Gemini – one of the most popular AI models out there.

After all, if AI is the future, why not try seeing the reasoning and justification of a price model? So, we asked it directly – what will the price of PI be at the end of this month? The answer is very interesting.

Generating PI Price Predictions for Various Scenarios

First things first, Gemini went on to describe three scenarios for the PI price this month, somewhat expectedly covering all angles. The model called them “The Doomsday Bot,” “The Boring Realist,” and “The Hopium Generator.” Clearly, its crypto slang is somewhat stuck in 2021, but let’s ignore that for now.

The first scenario predicts PI’s price to dump to $0.14 or lower by the end of the month. The reasoning is that impatient early adopters will aggressively dump their bags the second they get a shred of liquidity following more KYC migration unlocks.

The second one predicts a chop – a sideways price action, where the “Pi Core team continues its notoriously methodical and slow approach.” Gemini says the token could continue trading in a relatively narrow range between $0.17 and $0.20.

Last but not least, we have the bullish take, which sees the price shooting above $0.50 – a 3x increase in what the AI calculates as the “perfect storm scenario.” This would require the network to successfully bridge millions of users into spending participants and surprise major exchange listings.

So, up until now, the AI model doesn’t take any chances and covers pretty much any scenario – from bearish, to sideways, to positive. Sounds an awful lot like a veteran analyst, right?

But here’s the twist.

Gemini’s Reality Check

In its last paragraph, Gemini set its foot firmly on the ground, saying:

“Before you go financing a Lambo based on the Hopium Generator, let’s look at the facts. With PI sitting around $0.17 and an estimated circulating supply of over 9.4 billion tokens, jumping to $0.5, let alone the wild $314,159 numbers you see on X – would require billions of dollars in actual capital to enter the ecosystem.”

The model urges users to keep their expectations in check as the end of the quarter closes in.

The post AI Predicts Pi Network (PI) Price at the end of March, The Answer Might Shock You appeared first on CryptoPotato.