The ruling risks politicizing regulatory agencies, potentially undermining their independence and altering the landscape of federal oversight.

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The lawsuit could reshape AI training practices, emphasizing stricter data usage policies and potentially boosting decentralized content solutions.

The post Microsoft and OpenAI face copyright lawsuit from 400 publishers appeared first on Crypto Briefing.

This partnership could set a precedent for state-level AI integration, enhancing government efficiency and cybersecurity while fostering public-private collaboration.

The post Anthropic partners with California to enhance AI use in government appeared first on Crypto Briefing.

The attack exacerbates regional instability, diminishing prospects for a lasting peace deal and complicating future ceasefire negotiations.

The post Israeli attack hits southern Lebanon amid ongoing 2026 Lebanon war appeared first on Crypto Briefing.

The raid highlights escalating tensions in global tech supply chains, potentially impacting AI hardware access and investor confidence.

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Bitcoin Magazine

Strategy (MSTR) Surges Over 12% As Bitcoin-Linked Stocks Have Green Day

Shares of Strategy Inc. climbed 14% at times on Monday to roughly $94, their best single-day gain in weeks, after the bitcoin treasury company unveiled a sweeping capital overhaul.

The move marks a significant shift for the company once synonymous with an unrelenting bitcoin accumulation strategy. Strategy’s board approved a new Digital Credit Capital Framework that authorizes up to $1.25 billion in bitcoin sales to fund a newly created U.S. dollar reserve, cover preferred dividend obligations, and service debt. 

The company also authorized $1 billion in common stock buybacks and $1 billion in repurchases of its preferred securities.

The company raised the dividend rate on its Variable Rate Series A Perpetual Stretch Preferred Stock, known as STRC, to 12% annually — a 50 basis point increase effective July 1.

Strategy held 847,363 BTC as of June 28, purchased for an aggregate $64.10 billion at an average price of $75,651 per coin. With bitcoin trading near $60,000 Monday afternoon, the company sits on an unrealized loss on its entire stack — context that makes the new monetization framework more than just financial engineering. 

The company said it has approximately $2.55 billion in U.S. dollar reserves, covering roughly 17 months of annual preferred dividend and interest obligations of about $1.76 billion.

The stock had been grinding lower since hitting a high near $200 earlier this year in May, pulled down by bitcoin weakness and broader risk-off pressure. Monday’s bounce, driven largely by the capital plan announcement, brought shares back above $92 intraday, with a session peak near $94.

Other crypto and bitcoin-linked stocks also started the week out strong. 

Nakamoto (NAKA) shares surged more than 10% at points during Monday’s session, among the day’s strongest movers in the crypto equity space. Strive (ASST) climbed over 3.5% at its intraday peak. Coinbase (COIN), by contrast, saw a more muted session — shares up around 2% at their high.

Strategy and bitcoin price action

Bitcoin price shed roughly 6% over the past week, pulling back from a high near $64,400 earlier in the period to trade around lows of $58,800 today — a grind lower that has tracked weakness across broader risk assets.

Bitcoin price has now dropped more than 18% on the month, with the June candle opening near $76,690 and finding no sustained bid on the way down. 

Six straight weeks of ETF outflows, totaling tens of millions in institutional selling, have weighed on the price throughout the stretch. Bitcoin remains below its key 50-month exponential moving average near $65,600, a level that technicians watch as a line between short-term recovery and deeper correction territory.

Bitcoin Magazine is published by BTC Inc, a subsidiary of Nakamoto Inc. (NASDAQ: NAKA)

This post Strategy (MSTR) Surges Over 12% As Bitcoin-Linked Stocks Have Green Day first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Micah Zimmerman.

Bitcoin Magazine

JPMorgan Backs U.S. Crypto Bill, But Puts a Warning Label Front and Center as Senate Eyes August Deadline

JPMorgan threw its support behind federal digital asset legislation Monday, but the bank’s message to Congress was as much a caution as an endorsement: get the framework right, or risk recreating the financial vulnerabilities regulation was designed to prevent.

In a joint op-ed, Umar Farooq, global co-head of JPMorgan Payments, and Peter Muriungi, CEO of Digital Assets and Blockchain Solutions, argued that the United States has a genuine opportunity to lead in digital finance — provided lawmakers pair regulatory clarity with durable safeguards. 

The piece arrived as the Senate race to advance the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act before its August recess, with negotiators still working through sticking points on stablecoin yield provisions, ethics rules for government officials with crypto ties, and liability protections for decentralized finance developers.

“Regulatory clarity matters only if paired with durable safeguards,” Farooq and Muriungi wrote. “Clarity with gaps or loopholes can push activity into lightly supervised channels and weaken long-standing protections.”

The op-ed stands out less for what it celebrates than for what it warns against. Rather than leading with the promise of tokenization and programmable money, the executives spent much of their argument flagging how crypto innovation could go wrong without proper guardrails.

JPMorgan’s take on stablecoins, blockchain

On market structure, JPMorgan’s position was blunt: the blockchain on which a product is issued does not change its economic function. Assets that look and behave like securities should face disclosure, custody, and market integrity rules. 

Decentralized trading platforms that operate like brokers or exchanges should be held to the same standards. Tokenization, the executives argued, should improve how markets operate, not serve as a mechanism for bypassing the rules that have made U.S. capital markets the most trusted in the world.

The bank reserved particular focus for stablecoins, where JPMorgan sees both commercial opportunity and competitive threat. Stablecoins and tokenized deposits could enable faster settlement and reduce friction in cross-border payments, Farooq and Muriungi wrote. 

But when those products offer yield-like incentives or hold balances without meeting bank-level capital, liquidity, and consumer-protection standards, payments innovation becomes shadow banking by another name.

Features such as rewards or cashback on held balances lead many consumers to assume the product carries familiar protections. When it does not, the result is heightened run risk — a concentrated vulnerability that surfaces in the worst moments. 

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon has been among the banking industry’s loudest voices on the issue. “The banks will not accept it,” Dimon said last month, vowing to fight stablecoin yield provisions in the Clarity Act “down to the wire.”

The executives also pressed for strong anti-money laundering and law enforcement tools across the digital asset ecosystem. Broad exemptions for infrastructure that processes core transactions, they argued, can enable opaque arrangements that shield true ownership — a risk for both national security and market integrity.

The op-ed did not arrive without commercial context. Also Monday, JPMorgan announced the expansion of its Kinexys blockchain payments platform to eight currencies, adding the Australian dollar, Hong Kong dollar, Japanese yen, Chinese renminbi, and Singapore dollar to a system that already supports the U.S. dollar, euro, and British pound.

The platform has processed more than $4 trillion in transactions to date, with average daily volume exceeding $7 billion. Payoneer and Japanese energy trader JERA Global Markets are among the first clients using the new currency accounts.

Kinexys earlier this year also launched JPM Coin, a deposit token designed to give institutional clients near-instant, 24/7 settlement without stepping outside the regulated banking system. The token runs on a permissioned blockchain network operated by J.P. Morgan, where client deposits are represented digitally and transfers settle within the network rather than on public rails.

Earlier this week, Fidelity wrote that Bitcoin’s current crypto winter could end if one or more major catalysts emerge, including the continuation of the four-year halving cycle, clearer crypto regulation, Federal Reserve rate cuts, a new breakout crypto use case, or a fresh wave of institutional adoption. 

While none of these factors are guaranteed, the bank argued that history suggests major bull markets have often followed similar shifts in supply dynamics, policy, macro conditions, and investor demand.

This post JPMorgan Backs U.S. Crypto Bill, But Puts a Warning Label Front and Center as Senate Eyes August Deadline first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Micah Zimmerman.

Bitcoin Magazine

Fidelity Outlines 5 Factors That Could End the Bitcoin and Crypto Winter

Bitcoin is trading below $60,000 as of late June 2026, roughly 53% off its October 2025 all-time high above $126,200. A short-lived rally from March to May gave bulls a brief reason for optimism, but prices have since retreated. 

According to a new report from Fidelity, the current downturn has the hallmarks of a crypto winter — and history points to five factors that could bring it to an end.

Fidelity notes that bitcoin has formed bull market tops and bottoms at roughly four-year intervals since 2011. With the last bear market bottom arriving in November 2022, the pattern suggests a potential floor around November 2026 — if the cycle holds. The debate over whether bitcoin’s 4-year cycle is intact remains active, and some analysts argue the bear market is nearly finished while others are less certain.

Bitcoin’s four-year cycle

The cycle’s engine, Fidelity explains, is bitcoin’s halving mechanism — a built-in rule that cuts mining rewards in half every four years, reducing new supply entering circulation. The most recent halving in April 2024 dropped block rewards to 3.125 BTC.

 If demand holds steady or grows against a shrinking supply, prices can rise. The firm cautions, though, that the cycles have varied in length and should be used for big-picture analysis rather than precise trade timing.

Regulation

Clear rules have preceded previous bull markets, according to Fidelity. The SEC’s approval of spot bitcoin ETPs in January 2024 was a defining moment, helping push bitcoin to new highs. Now, the firm flags the CLARITY Act as the next major legislative development to watch.

The bill, which would divide digital asset oversight between the SEC and CFTC and give the industry a clear legal framework, passed the House in 2025 and has since advanced through the Senate Banking Committee. A hearing is scheduled for July 17, with the crypto industry watching closely. 

If it becomes law, Fidelity argues it could unlock domestic activity that has been held back by legal uncertainty.

Federal Reserve policy

Fidelity points to a consistent, if correlational, relationship between interest rate cuts and crypto price gains. Looser monetary conditions make borrowing cheaper and investors more comfortable taking on risk — and crypto has historically benefitted. The inverse has also been true when rates rise.

With inflation still a concern in mid-2026, the Fed’s path remains unclear. The firm notes that any price appreciation could come well before an official rate cut announcement, as markets tend to move in anticipation.

A breakout use case

NFTs and memecoins turbocharged the 2019–2021 bull run, according to Fidelity — a wave of investor interest few saw coming. The firm identifies three trends drawing the most attention in 2026: real-world asset tokenization, AI-related crypto infrastructure, and stablecoins, which have seen rapid adoption following the passage of the GENIUS Act in 2025. But Fidelity also leaves the door open to something no one is watching yet — historically, the biggest catalysts have been surprises.

Institutional adoption

Fidelity acknowledges this is no longer a fresh narrative. When public companies first disclosed crypto holdings in 2020, it sparked a new story that helped run prices to then-record highs. The establishment of the U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve in March 2025 had a similar effect, helping push bitcoin above $126,000. But sustained institutional adoption throughout 2026 has not translated into a new bull market.

Still, Fidelity argues an unforeseen move could change the calculus. A Magnificent Seven company announcing a major bitcoin position — something not seen since Tesla’s 2021 purchase, most of which it later sold — could create a fresh narrative. So could a global crisis driving institutions toward bitcoin as a hedge, something that has not materialized during the ongoing conflict in Iran.

This post Fidelity Outlines 5 Factors That Could End the Bitcoin and Crypto Winter first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Micah Zimmerman.

Bitcoin Magazine

Clarity Act Enters Critical Two-Week Window as Senate Heads Into Recess

The Senate has left Washington for the July 4 recess, and the fate of the Clarity Act, the most sweeping digital asset market structure legislation Congress has ever attempted, now rests on negotiations happening out of public view, according to reporting from Crypto in America.

Senators return July 13. From that point, the window to pass the bill before August recess is narrow, and the remaining obstacles are substantial. 

Senate Majority Leader John Thune has signaled he wants to use the week of July 13 for the National Defense Authorization Act, the must-pass defense bill. That would push Clarity Act floor consideration to late July or the first week of August, the final stretch before Congress breaks for summer.

The 60-vote threshold is the central problem. Assuming all 53 Republicans vote yes — not a safe assumption, given Senators Josh Hawley and Rand Paul both voted against the GENIUS Act — the bill still needs at least seven Democrats. 

Clarity Act disputes

Getting there requires resolving a core dispute: whether the Clarity Act will include a meaningful ethics framework to address President Trump’s crypto holdings, which have generated more than $2 billion in new wealth for him since he returned to office, according to Reuters.

As of now, no deal has been reached. Senator Cynthia Lummis floated one possible path last week: language that would allow state attorneys general to sue crypto exchanges that list tokens issued by public officials in violation of the act. 

Whether that satisfies the Democrats whose votes are in play remains an open question — and the White House, which would need to sign off on any compromise, has not yet weighed in.

A second fault line runs through Section 604, which incorporates the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act. 

Law enforcement groups argue the provision, as written, would impede their ability to investigate and prosecute on-chain crime. Some industry stakeholders have indicated openness to targeted revisions, but no agreement has been reached.

The Agriculture Committee text presents a third set of problems. Sources familiar with the negotiations point to federal preemption of state law, conflict-of-interest rules for crypto exchanges, and restrictions on affiliate trading as unresolved sticking points that staff will need to work through before senators return.

On July 17, the House Financial Services Committee has scheduled a field hearing to examine “how the Clarity Act unlocks innovation.” 

Senator Tim Scott, chair of the Senate Banking Committee, has been among those pushing for the bill’s passage — a signal that Republican leadership remains committed, at least in principle, to getting it done.

This post Clarity Act Enters Critical Two-Week Window as Senate Heads Into Recess first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Micah Zimmerman.

Bitcoin Magazine

2007–2009—The Global Financial Crisis and the Birth of Bitcoin

On January 1, 2000, the world was supposed to end. As the date changed and the next millennium rolled in, computer systems programmed in the 1960s and 1970s were expected to crash. Storage space was very expensive back then. As a result, programmers often saved space by recording years with only two digits instead of four, omitting the century. Once the century changed, the logic would be lost, and systems would malfunction.

Massive IT projects were launched to fix the problem and prevent looming disasters, like nuclear power plants exploding. Alongside a booming tech industry, an even more booming survival industry emerged. Guidebooks were published on how to survive the impending catastrophe — hide under the table — while there was a healthy trade in bunkers and overpriced survival packs.

In a preemptive move, the U.S. Federal Reserve loosened monetary policy. The burgeoning internet and its early successes had brought technology to the masses. Together with loose financing conditions and growing public enthusiasm at the turn of the millennium, this ignited a unique boom on the stock markets, especially for tech and internet stocks.

The world did not come to an end. Instead, people started to wonder what would become of companies that had no chance of turning a profit and depended on continuous injections of investor funding. Doubts began to spread, share prices started to fall, and over the course of the year 2000, the dot-com bubble burst.

The final nail in the coffin of the 2000s bubble came on September 11, 2001. The terrorist attack on the World Trade Center in New York made it seem as though the world really was ending. Air traffic shut down, war broke out, and a recession followed. Stock markets plunged, and they just kept falling.

Once again, the U.S. Federal Reserve stepped in to save the economy and the financial markets. Interest rates were slashed, credit became cheap, and with this, the economic downturn was slowed. Starting in early 2003, the stock markets began to recover. Slowly at first, then faster. The exceptionally low interest rates stimulated economic activity, albeit not as intended. The burst tech bubble was soon replaced by a gigantic housing bubble, especially in the United States.

The film The Big Short begins with a quote from Mark Twain:

“It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.”

History provides us with many examples that show how stubbornly and for how long people, indeed entire societies, have clung to false beliefs. A good example is the geocentric worldview that many held in the Middle Ages: they believed that the universe revolved around the Earth. Galileo Galilei held an opposing belief and was threatened with death and excommunicated from the Church for it. The Church’s self-image and vested interests forbade such an inconvenient truth. But as it is with the truth, a point comes when it can no longer be denied.

The same was true of the financial crisis of 2007–2009. Behind many financial products on offer were mortgage-backed securities of little or no value. This truth, too, eventually could not be denied. The markets for these securities and the financial products built on them collapsed, along with a lot of the banks and financial institutions that held them. In the end, the entire financial system imploded. Major, well-known banks went bankrupt, financial markets dried up, and even healthy companies were put at risk of failure.

The terrifying yet fascinating part was the reaction of governments and central banks — through bailouts. With the exception of Lehman Brothers and a few others, virtually all the major institutions were saved. At the time, Chancellor Angela Merkel guaranteed the German public that their bank deposits were safe — a promise she likely could not have kept if it had been called out.

The central element of the bailouts was and still is the printing of money. Governments generously rescued important, systemically relevant banks and companies with the input of fresh money. Central banks financed and continue to finance this by purchasing government bonds, cutting interest rates, and providing very favorable financing conditions to banks.

This point is very important. When a central bank buys an outstanding government bond, that means it is increasing the money supply or printing money. In the film Oeconomia, Peter Praet, at that time the chief economist of the ECB, says this quite explicitly: “It is not physical money, but electronic.”

Printing money means increasing the amount of money in circulation. And that results in all of our money getting watered down. Ultimately, this makes it worth less since there’s more money but the same amount of goods.

When new money is created — that is, when money is inflated and then spent, no matter what it’s spent on — prices will eventually rise, and the money everyone else holds becomes less valuable. Put another way, when new money is created, everyone who already holds money is slightly dispossessed.

Only those who receive the new money first benefit, which is usually the banks, shareholders, and companies as well as borrowers and thus the government. Also benefiting are those who hold the goods or assets that are first purchased with the newly created money. This primarily includes real estate, stocks, and tangible assets in general.

Such inflation must be distinguished from individual price increases. If the demand for city-center locations suddenly rises because people are moving from the country to the city, property prices in city centers will rise, while they fall in the countryside. With inflation, prices rise almost everywhere. Price increases caused by rising demand or falling supply, such as after a poor harvest, are limited and are offset by a drop in prices elsewhere.

Inflation acts like a tax, but it isn’t perceived as such. The government could just as well take a small amount of money from every business and citizen to cover its spending instead of creating new money by issuing a government bond. In practice, it would be the same thing, only it wouldn’t be so easy, and many people would complain and might vote those politicians out in the next election.

Inflation is vague, and in public perception it’s not the government’s fault but rather that of others who are creating shortages of goods and profiting from rising prices. Political and public scapegoats for rising prices can always be found.

The former ECB chief economist, Peter Praet, states quite clearly that the functioning of today’s financial and economic system depends on the creation of more and more money — in other words, on continuous inflation. If the last financial crises have shown us anything, it’s the automatic reaction of governments: printing money. And crises will always keep coming for a variety of reasons: the ongoing climate crisis, pandemics, wars, migration, demographics, etc. Justification and excuses for printing money can always be found.

What does this have to do with Bitcoin?

A major and very valid criticism of a sound monetary system, in which money cannot be multiplied uncontrollably, is that it provides no way to intervene quickly by increasing the money supply in severe crises. That’s true. You would have to save beforehand, to set aside reserves.

And if there is one thing politicians cannot do, it’s save. There is always a good reason to spend money, whether it’s simply doing good, solving problems, winning over voters before an election, or even supporting a friendly entrepreneur in one’s own constituency.

The alternative would be to raise taxes in order to finance these unforeseen expenses. That would be politically and economically counterproductive. It would scare off voters and take away their purchasing power.

The crucial point is this: without the ability to print money at will, the boom that precedes a crisis wouldn’t arise in the first place, or at the very least would be much smaller. And the subsequent crises would also be a lot smaller. This is evident in the economic cycles of the 19th century, when a strict gold standard was in place.

Yes, there were numerous crises at the time. But they were short and less severe. And periods of falling prices certainly did not end in the dreaded deflationary spiral.

The ability to print unlimited amounts of money leads to correspondingly large misallocations, which then lead to correspondingly large corrections, and therefore, crises. These crises in turn trigger even more money-printing, and on it goes.

The greater the misallocations beforehand, the greater the corrections afterward. A healthy monetary system leads to sounder economic decisions, sustainable upturns, and brief downturns in which misallocations are corrected.

Money that cannot be arbitrarily multiplied limits misallocations during a boom, and accordingly, limits corrections during a downturn.

At the height of the financial crisis, on October 31, 2008, an anonymous person or group published the Bitcoin white paper — six weeks after Lehman Brothers, one of the largest banks in the U.S., filed for bankruptcy.

On January 3, 2009, Satoshi Nakamoto launched the Bitcoin blockchain. The very first block was mined. This first block contains the following message:

“The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks”

This was an explicit reference to a headline in The Times on January 3, 2009 — the repeated bailout of a financial system still teetering on the brink of collapse.

Bitcoin was, and still is, the answer to a fragile financial system: to uncontrolled money printing, to willful denial of reality, but also to the unfair and socially unjust expropriation that accompanies money creation.

The cap of 21 million bitcoin and the lack of central control make a policy of inflation impossible. Someone who holds bitcoin cannot be dispossessed by the uncontrolled printing of even more bitcoin.

Nor can they be dispossessed by banks that go bankrupt or deny access to bitcoin, provided they hold their bitcoin in a self-hosted wallet and thereby manage their own access. No central authority can revoke that access.

The timing of Bitcoin’s launch was no coincidence. It was the reaction to a financial system that would have collapsed had money not been printed in a pretty much uncontrolled manner.

Bitcoin is sound money — a response to a broken financial system. It is a system that is not imposed from above. Participation is voluntary and open to anyone. No one with a computer or smartphone and an internet connection can be excluded from it. For many, it’s a lifeline out of the fiat money system that is not sustainably viable.

In contrast to an inflationary and opaque system, Bitcoin is decentralized, transparent, and fundamentally honest.

Discover more in Bitcoin: The Honest Money!
This excerpt is just the beginning. Dive deeper into how inflation devalues your money, your savings, and your time in Bitcoin: The Honest Money by Alex von Frankenberg, Ph.D. The paperback is available now.

Order your copy here!

This post 2007–2009—The Global Financial Crisis and the Birth of Bitcoin first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Alex v. Frankenberg.

Bitcoin’s break below the $60,000 area has pushed digital asset markets into a more defensive phase, ending months of narrow trading and exposing a market structure that traders say could amplify the next major move.

CryptoSlate's data show the largest cryptocurrency had been moving sideways since February, when it first tested the $60,000 area.

That long consolidation made the level a widely watched marker for traders, even as macro risks, spot exchange-traded fund outflows and concerns around corporate Bitcoin holders weighed on sentiment.

As a result, the latest decline points to a more fragile setup where large amounts of Bitcoin have moved toward major exchanges, open interest is rising while spot prices remain weak, and professional traders are paying more to protect against another leg lower.

Bitcoin’s break turns exchange flows into a supply test

The clearest sign of stress has appeared in exchange-linked flows.

CryptoQuant data show more than 550,000 BTC moved to deposit addresses linked to Binance and OKX after Bitcoin slipped below the $60,000 area. Binance-linked deposit addresses received more than 220,000 BTC, while OKX-linked addresses received more than 330,000 BTC.

Those figures are well above this year’s normal readings. Binance has averaged about 60,000 BTC in comparable inflows, while OKX has averaged about 95,000 BTC, according to CryptoQuant data.

The latest transfers are the largest of the year and resemble levels last seen during the 2023 bear market.

In cryptocurrency market architecture, a sudden transfer of coins to exchange deposit addresses functions as an initial operational indicator of intent. Users typically route assets to these specific points before funds are aggregated into a platform’s central hot wallets for execution, lending, or collateral assignment.

Still, the timing gives the data more weight. Large transfers toward exchanges during a price decline often raise concern that more supply could become available if the market weakens further.

In a market already trading below a level many investors had watched for months, that potential supply overhang can make rebounds harder to sustain.

The flow also reflects how range-bound markets can become unstable once a familiar level breaks. When traders spend months reacting to the same zone, risk controls, hedges and stop-loss decisions can cluster around it. Once the level gives way, many participants reassess exposure at the same time.

That is why the exchange data are central to the current setup. The market is not only dealing with a lower Bitcoin price. It is also dealing with the possibility that more coins have moved closer to venues where holders can act quickly.

Valuation reset reduces excess, but not volatility risk

The exchange flows are arriving as Bitcoin’s on-chain valuation metrics show that much of the earlier cycle’s excess has already been compressed.

CryptoQuant’s MVRV Z-Score shows Bitcoin’s valuation premium has fallen sharply, moving closer to historical low-valuation areas.

The MVRV framework compares Bitcoin’s market value with its realized value. Market value reflects the current price of circulating coins, while realized value estimates the network’s aggregate cost basis by valuing each coin at the price where it last moved on-chain.

When market value trades far above realized value, unrealized profits are usually elevated and cyclical risk tends to rise. As the gap narrows, profitability declines, and some speculative pressure eases.

The Z-Score adjusts that relationship by measuring the distance between market value and realized value against Bitcoin’s historical market-cap deviation. That helps traders judge whether Bitcoin is trading near unusually stretched or compressed valuation levels compared with its own history.

The current reading suggests the market has moved closer to reset territory.

However, the indicator does not identify a precise bottom. Bitcoin has traded near cheaper valuation zones before while prices continued to weaken, particularly during periods of poor liquidity, forced selling, or macro stress.

That distinction is important now because valuation and positioning are sending different messages. On-chain data suggest the market is less stretched than it was earlier in the cycle. Market structure data suggest traders are still preparing for a disorderly move.

CryptoQuant data show funding rates across major exchanges have moved back into positive territory while Bitcoin remains weak around the $59,000 to $60,000 area. Positive funding generally means traders holding long positions are paying shorts, a sign that demand for bullish exposure has returned after a more negative stretch.

At the same time, open interest is rising while spot prices remain soft. That means new positions are being built into the decline rather than risk leaving the system.

The combination can make price action more sensitive. If Bitcoin falls further, newly opened long positions could come under pressure. If the market rebounds sharply, traders positioned for more downside may be forced to cover.

Either outcome could make the next move larger than the spot market alone would suggest.

Downside hedges build as institutional interest weakens

To manage this heightened structural uncertainty, institutional traders are aggressively building a defensive position in the options markets.

Singapore-based digital asset trading firm QCP Capital reports that implied volatility metrics are trending systematically higher as market participants pay a premium for downside protection.

According to the firm, demand has centered on July-expiry Bitcoin put options with strike prices between $55,000 and $58,000.

Data from the digital asset derivatives exchange Deribit reinforces this narrative, showing roughly $1.2 billion in open interest clustered specifically at the $55,000 and $50,000 strike zones.

Compounding this defensive positioning is a structural shift in institutional capital flows.

Data from blockchain analytics firm Glassnode reveals that institutional demand is no longer acting as a reliable sponge for circulating supply. Over the past month, spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) shed approximately 71,600 BTC, while digital asset trusts added only a marginal 7,500 BTC.

When adjusted for network issuance, the combined net institutional capital flow is -77,000 BTC.

According to Glassnode’s analysis, any near-term spot market recovery will face immediate friction from this persistent wrapper supply overhang until net flows reverse.

This institutional deleveraging trend is explicitly quantified by BlockScholes, whose proprietary Bitcoin risk indices have remained fixed below the -1.0 threshold for more than 23 consecutive days.

BlockScholes notes that the longevity of this trend marks a departure from typical cyclical dips, signaling an ongoing, structural risk reduction by institutional allocators that will likely require a fundamental macroeconomic or industry-specific catalyst to alter.

That leaves Bitcoin in a fragile position after its break below the $60,000 area. On-chain valuation metrics suggest the market has already shed much of its earlier excess, but exchange flows, options positioning, and institutional demand all point to a market still preparing for stress.

The immediate test is whether spot demand can absorb the supply now sitting closer to exchanges. If demand improves, defensive positioning could help fuel a rebound.

If it does not, the same structure could turn the $60,000 break into a broader shock to volatility.

The post Bitcoin’s $60K breakdown sets up a volatility shock as traders load up on downside hedges appeared first on CryptoSlate.

Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) shares rose Monday after the Bitcoin holder moved to reassure investors that it can meet its preferred stock obligations, authorizing up to $2 billion in buybacks and opening the door to Bitcoin sales that could fund dividends, interest payments, and repurchases.

The company, led by Executive Chairman Michael Saylor, announced a new Digital Credit Capital Framework that gives management more room to defend its capital structure, which has come under pressure as Bitcoin weakened and Strategy’s preferred securities traded below their stated values.

Following the announcement, MSTR gained 3.9% to $85.52 in early market trading, while the distressed STRC climbed to $81.

These price actions followed a broader sell-off in these stocks last week, when investors questioned whether Strategy could continue to rely on equity and preferred stock issuance to fund its Bitcoin strategy without adding pressure on existing shareholders.

The framework marks one of the clearest signs yet that Strategy is adjusting its playbook after years of raising capital to accumulate Bitcoin.

The company said it remains committed to Bitcoin as its primary treasury reserve asset, but it now has formal authority to use part of that reserve as a source of liquidity when management decides that selling Bitcoin is more attractive than issuing common stock or other securities.

Strategy held 847,363 Bitcoin as of June 28, valued at about $50.7 billion. The position remains the largest corporate Bitcoin holding in public markets, but it also carries an unrealized loss of more than $13 billion based on the company’s disclosed acquisition cost.

Strategy builds cash reserve

Strategy said its US dollar reserve stood at about $2.55 billion as of June 28, including expected proceeds from shares sold through its at-the-market offering program that had not yet settled.

The company said the reserve may be used only to pay dividends on preferred stock and interest on outstanding debt unless the board approves another use. Based on current annual preferred dividend payments and interest expense of about $1.76 billion, the reserve provides coverage of about 17.4 months.

The board also adopted a policy requiring Strategy to maintain a minimum reserve equal to at least 12 months of expected preferred dividends and interest expense. Any move below that threshold would require board approval.

That reserve is intended to address one of the central concerns around Strategy’s funding model. Its Bitcoin holdings do not generate income, whereas the preferred securities issued to finance the company’s Bitcoin accumulation carry recurring dividend obligations.

The company also said it has $1.25 billion of board-authorized Bitcoin monetization capacity that can be used to build or replenish the reserve.

When combined with the current cash reserve, Strategy said it has about $3.8 billion of current liquidity coverage for preferred dividends and interest expense, equal to 25.9 months of coverage before repurchases, taxes, transaction costs, market conditions or changes in dividend rates.

STRC dividend rises to 12%

Strategy also raised the annual dividend rate on its Variable Rate Series A Perpetual Stretch Preferred Stock, known as STRC, to 12% from 11.5%. The increase applies to semi-monthly periods with record dates on or after July 1.

STRC was designed to trade near its stated $100 level, but it has fallen well below that level amid recent market stress.

The security was trading around $81 at press time, leaving it at a deep discount to par despite the company’s stated objective of bringing it back toward the $99-$100 range over time.

The company said it will review the STRC dividend rate monthly, using factors including the security’s trading level, market yields, credit spreads, Bitcoin price and volatility, reserve coverage and broader capital market conditions.

Strategy also cautioned that it will not automatically raise the STRC dividend simply because the security trades below its stated amount. Dividends remain subject to board approval and are not guaranteed.

That distinction is important for investors who have treated STRC as a test of confidence in Strategy’s Bitcoin-backed credit model.

The higher payout may help narrow the discount, but it also increases the cost of keeping the preferred stock complex stable if market yields continue to rise or Bitcoin remains weak.

Speaking on the move, Quinn Thompson, Chief Investment Officer at Lekker Capital, viewed the announcement as a necessary response to recent market duress.

Thompson noted that Strategy's common stock had declined nearly 30% in the preceding week, indicating elevated selling pressure. He characterized the decision to funnel recent equity offering proceeds directly into a defensive cash reserve as a highly positive development for institutional confidence.

However, Thompson expressed skepticism that a 50-basis-point dividend increase alone would be sufficient to drive STRC back to its $100 par value, though he acknowledged that the firm's overall capital structure has been significantly stabilized by the presence of a definitive, multi-billion-dollar backstop.

$2 billion stock buybacks add another tool

Strategy also authorized up to $1 billion in repurchases of its Digital Credit Securities, including STRC, STRF, STRD, and STRK.

The company said STRC is expected to be the program's initial focus if management determines that repurchases would be accretive and strengthen the capital structure.

Repurchases may take place through open-market purchases, block trades, tender offers, exchange offers or privately negotiated transactions.

The authorization does not require Strategy to buy any specific amount of securities and has no fixed expiration date.

The logic is straightforward. If Strategy buys preferred securities at a significant discount to their stated amount, it can reduce future dividend obligations while potentially improving confidence in the remaining securities.

That could help the company lower the cost of supporting its capital structure, though it would also require cash or Bitcoin sales if funded outside regular capital markets activity.

Strategy also authorized a separate $1 billion repurchase program for its Class A common stock. The company said common stock buybacks may be used when management believes MSTR is trading below intrinsic value.

Neither preferred nor common stock repurchases will be funded from the US dollar reserve, the company said. If Strategy uses Bitcoin sales to fund repurchases, those sales would fall under the Bitcoin monetization program.

Chief Executive Officer Phong Le said the company is shifting from a model centered on issuing securities to one that also uses repurchases when market prices make them attractive. He added:

“We intend to move between issuing securities when capital is attractive and repurchasing securities when our instruments trade at levels that make buybacks accretive.”

Bitcoin becomes part of liquidity plan

The Bitcoin monetization program is the most significant part of the framework for long-term Strategy investors.

Under the program, the company may sell Bitcoin for three purposes: to generate up to $1.25 billion for the US dollar reserve, to fund or replenish cash used for preferred dividends and interest expense, and to finance repurchases of Digital Credit Securities or MSTR common stock.

The program has no fixed expiration date and does not require Strategy to sell Bitcoin. Any sale would depend on market conditions, liquidity needs, taxes, accounting issues, legal requirements, and management’s assessment of shareholder value.

Still, the authorization formalizes a shift that had already begun. Strategy sold 32 Bitcoins for about $2.5 million between May 26 and May 31, only the second known Bitcoin sale in the company’s history.

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That sale was small compared with the company’s overall holdings, but it signaled a willingness to use Bitcoin as a balance sheet tool when management believes doing so can improve its financial position.

The new framework expands that flexibility.

For years, Saylor’s strategy relied on turning public market demand for MSTR and related securities into a funding engine for Bitcoin purchases.

That model worked best when MSTR traded at a large premium to the value of its Bitcoin holdings, allowing the company to sell equity or preferred instruments and use the proceeds to buy more Bitcoin in a way management described as accretive.

That premium has narrowed sharply. Strategy said it expects to remain disciplined in its use of common equity issuance, especially when MSTR trades at or near 1x mNAV per share, a valuation measure tied to the company’s Bitcoin holdings.

The new framework gives management another path. Instead of relying mainly on new issuance, Strategy can use cash reserves, Bitcoin monetization, and buybacks to manage the liabilities created by its own capital raising.

Despite the new possibility of BTC selling, Saylor said:

The post MSTR jumps after Strategy says it may sell more Bitcoin to fund dividends and buybacks appeared first on CryptoSlate.

Illinois just became the first state to tax crypto by the transaction. The new 0.2% levy hits nearly every trade, transfer, or custody service an exchange runs for an Illinois resident, and it takes effect January 1, 2027. Governor JB Pritzker signed the Digital Asset Tax Act in mid-June, tucked inside a $55.9 billion budget.

Washington is in the middle of building a single national rulebook for crypto. The GENIUS Act for stablecoins is already law, and the CLARITY Act for market structure is slowly approaching a Senate floor vote. Both promise the same thing: one set of rules for issuers, exchanges, brokers, and tokens, applied the same way in every state.

But Illinois is the first hard proof that a federal rulebook and a federal price tag are two completely different things. Nothing taking shape in Washington clearly stops a cash-strapped state from taxing the use of crypto inside its borders.

The fight ahead is narrower than the one that's been going on in the last two years. Congress is about to settle what crypto is and who polices it. What it won't settle is what a state can charge on top, and Illinois just showed that the number can be pretty high. Federal registration loses a lot of its shine if a token is legal in all fifty states but significantly more expensive to use in a dozen of them.

What Washington actually settles, and where its power stops

The federal rulebook covers the things the industry has spent years fighting about. GENIUS, signed in 2025, set the framework for payment stablecoins. It put Treasury, the OCC, and the banking regulators in charge of who can issue the coins and what reserves they have to hold. Treasury's first proposed rule under GENIUS lets a state keep supervising its own smaller stablecoin issuers, but only if the state's regime is “substantially similar” to the federal one.

The leash gets shorter as issuers grow. Any state-qualified issuer that crosses $10 billion in outstanding stablecoins has to shift toward federal oversight or stop minting new coins until it shrinks back under the line. The CLARITY Act handles the bigger market-structure question. The Senate Banking Committee advanced it 15-9 in May, and it's now on the Senate calendar awaiting a floor vote. It draws the line between what the SEC treats as a security and what the CFTC treats as a digital commodity, and it sets the terms under which exchanges and brokers register.

What federal law can do to a state is more limited than the word “clarity” suggests. Washington can override a state rule, but only in a handful of situations. It happens when Congress says so unambiguously and in plain language, when a state law directly clashes with a federal one, or when the federal scheme is so complete that no real room is left for the state.

The scope of that override decides everything, and it's where the Illinois problem slips through. The House version of CLARITY carries strong preemption language that would block states from regulating digital commodities, including treating them as securities under state law. That's one of the most useful parts of the act, because it stops fifty different definitions of the same token.

However, state officials have already pushed back on it. State securities administrators warn that the language weakens their power to chase fraud, and state banking supervisors are fighting to keep their money-transmission and consumer-protection authority intact.

But a tax on business activity like the one implemented in Illinois is well outside that fight. Stopping a state from relabeling Bitcoin as a security is a wholly separate thing from stopping it from taxing the companies that move Bitcoin for its residents.

Why a crypto tax wall outlives the rulebook

Illinois shows how a state raises the cost of crypto while leaving the thing itself perfectly legal.

The Digital Asset Tax Act goes after the business of running digital-asset services. That means the exchanges, custodians, and brokers handling crypto for Illinois customers are taxed at 0.2% of the value in each covered transaction. Direct wallet-to-wallet transfers between individuals stay untouched. The charge applies to the gross value, so a user owes it on the full amount even on a trade that loses money.

Any out-of-state broker clearing more than $100,000 a year from Illinois residents falls under it. Brokers register with the state and collect the tax much like a sales tax, so the cost flows straight to users through higher fees and wider spreads. The companies that live on thin margins and high volume will feel it first, while market makers and arbitrage desks will be the ones most likely to widen spreads or geofence the state entirely.

The state's case is easy to follow, and it's much harder to preempt than a securities rule. Illinois is taxing commercial activity that touches its residents and routing the money into its budget.

It's using the same power it leans on for plenty of other industries, so it can credibly claim it's taken no position at all on what crypto is or who gets to issue it. Industry groups estimate the levy pulls in roughly $60 million a year. The Crypto Council for Innovation has called it the most punitive digital-asset tax in the country, because there's no comparable state charge on trades of stocks, bonds, or derivatives.

That singling out is the legal weak spot worth watching. It will most likely be a slow, uncertain fight in court, though, and the tax will stay live while it plays out.

The industry is worried about this because of the precedent it sets.

A federal rulebook loses much of its appeal if every budget-stressed state can stack its own cost layer on top. One national framework could turn into fifty separate toll booths, and a 0.2% charge compounds fast across the high-frequency transfers that are one of the founding characteristics of crypto trading.

To kill it off, Congress would have to address it directly, either in a separate act or an amendment to an existing one. Lawmakers would have to expressly bar states from taxing digital-asset transactions, or block them from treating crypto worse than comparable financial products.

Both GENIUS and the current CLARITY act drafts leave that language out, so the states keep their room. State bank supervisors have even asked lawmakers to confirm that more protective state limits survive the federal bill. That tells us that the people who run state regimes fully expect to keep a lane no matter what passes.

So the industry is close to getting the thing it lobbied hardest for, a federal answer to what crypto is and who watches it. Illinois is the reminder that the answer settles only half the bill. GENIUS and CLARITY can make a token legal, supervised, and identically defined across the US. A state can still decide that every time one of its residents touches that token, it's owed 0.2%. Washington is close to giving crypto one rulebook, but it still hasn't given it one price.

The post What states can still do to crypto after GENIUS and CLARITY appeared first on CryptoSlate.

Aave's latest market move is becoming a referendum on how investors value DeFi lending as its economics begin to resemble those of financial infrastructure.

The token rallied as AAVE traded around $94.32 on June 27, up 13.16% over 24 hours. At the same time, a reported Standard Chartered bull case described Aave in automated-bank terms, while reports of Kraken parent Payward discussing a strategic stake in an Aave-related entity put fresh attention on the line between Aave Labs and AAVE-aligned protocol economics.

Stani Kulechov moved that line to the center by saying Aave protocol, GHO, and product revenue flow to AAVE rather than Aave Labs. The practical question is how that revenue reaches the Aave DAO after partner shares, incentives, governance decisions, and product-specific arrangements.

Aave is being tested as a DAO-owned financial infrastructure that can capture net revenue, allocate capital, and reach institutional markets while keeping core economics outside a conventional company balance sheet.

Why investors are reaching for bank-style math

Aave already has a scale that outside capital can recognize. The Aave protocol dashboard tracks the lending market's locked value and activity, while AAVE ranks among the leading lending and borrowing assets by market value.

Those figures explain why bank-style language has entered the discussion, even though they require careful translation before they become tokenholder economics.

Traditional lenders are valued through inputs that investors know well: liquidity, borrower demand, fee capture, risk management, and capital return. Aave has crypto-native versions of those inputs.

It has supplied liquidity instead of bank deposits, smart-contract markets instead of loan officers, governance instead of a board, and tokenholder-aligned buyback debates instead of corporate capital-return policy.

The comparison is useful, yet every input has a structural caveat. The protocol scale is visible, but suppliers are users of smart-contract markets rather than bank depositors.

Fees and product activity can grow, but gross protocol activity differs from the net revenue retained by the DAO. Buybacks can create a clearer capital-allocation lens, but the budget and execution depend on public governance rather than corporate management.

Aave's current valuation debate sits inside that gap. The market is trying to decide whether open lending infrastructure can be underwritten with familiar financial tools while the governance and revenue rights remain token-native.

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The Aave Will Win framework gives that debate a concrete mechanism. A governance temp check and later ARFC discussion describe Aave-branded product revenue as flowing to the DAO.

The same framework defines revenue after external partner shares, rebates, subsidies, and user incentives, which keeps the cash-flow case tied to net economics rather than headline activity.

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Aave's DAO funding discussion adds the capital-allocation layer. Buybacks give investors a familiar signal, but the relevant decision-making sits in treasury runway, governance appetite, and contributor priorities.

That structure is central to Aave's difference: the protocol can adopt financial-company tools while keeping the levers in DAO hands.

Strategic interest sharpens the Labs-versus-protocol distinction

The reported talks between Kraken and Payward add pressure, suggesting centralized crypto firms may seek strategic exposure to Aave's lending stack. The evidence supports reported talks around an Aave-related stake, while Kulechov's clarification separates Aave Labs-related allocation or partnership interest from AAVE/DAO protocol and product revenue.

That distinction changes the market interpretation. If strategic interest is about an entity, allocation, or distribution relationship, the protocol economics still need to be traced through governance frameworks and DAO-controlled revenue paths.

Investors cannot simply treat AAVE as corporate equity in Aave Labs. They also cannot ignore the fact that commercial partners may help the protocol reach users, liquidity, and regulated distribution channels.

Aave already has a Kraken-related commercial precedent. A governance proposal for Ink, Kraken's Ethereum layer 2, laid out a whitelabel Aave V3 instance with revenue-share mechanics for the DAO.

That record makes the latest strategic-interest discussion part of a broader commercial question: how much distribution, branding, and economics should the DAO share to expand the protocol's reach?

Bank-style valuation is both attractive and fragile here. Predictable revenue, capital returns, and institutional channels can support a higher-quality multiple. Public governance, tokenholder rights, and partner economics can complicate the comparison.

Aave's test is whether those pieces can stay coherent as more traditional capital tries to model the protocol.

That framing keeps the reported stakeholder discussion in proportion. It shows a path for strategic partners to plug into Aave's distribution and product surface, while token economics still depend on governance-level decisions.

The more centralized partners appear around the protocol, the more valuable the Aave Labs/DAO distinction becomes. Investors looking for bank-style metrics have to follow the economics from product revenue to DAO treasury, then from treasury policy to buybacks or other allocations.

That route is slower than corporate earnings guidance, yet it preserves the protocol's native structure.

Horizon turns the test toward institutions

Horizon makes the institutional side of the argument concrete. Horizon gives Aave a venue for real-world-asset collateral and permissioned institutional markets, and the VanEck VBILL update said Horizon had reached more than $450 million in net deposits and about $135 million in borrowing after adding the fund.

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Those figures support the idea that Aave can become legible to regulated borrowers, asset managers, and tokenized-asset issuers. They also keep the valuation debate grounded.

Horizon is an institutional RWA product, rather than the whole Aave protocol, and its economics still need to be read through the lens of product design, partner terms, and DAO governance.

The next signal is governance quality as much as price. Institutional capital tends to reward familiar cash-flow structures, service expectations, and clarity of compliance.

Aave's value proposition depends on making those rails useful while preserving DAO-controlled economics.

If governance keeps revenue capture, buybacks, and institutional partnerships coherent, Aave could become the clearest case for a DAO-owned financial network earning a traditional-finance multiple.

If that balance weakens, the bank analogy becomes a ceiling rather than validation, because the economics that make Aave distinct would become harder to price through the token.

The post Aave rally makes DeFi lending look more like a bank to investors appeared first on CryptoSlate.

Over the past year, the artificial intelligence trade has become one of the main pillars supporting global risk appetite.

However, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) is now warning that the same spending boom could become a source of financial stress if expected returns fail to arrive.

The Basel-based organization, which advises central banks, said in its annual economic report that the five largest hyperscalers are on track to spend more than $1 trillion on AI-related capital expenditure across 2025 and 2026.

The BIS said the scale of investment has raised questions about whether companies are committing too much capital before the business case has been fully proved.

According to the BIS:

“Disappointment in returns could trigger a sudden pullback in financing and turn the capex boom into a protracted investment bust, with potential knock-on effects on financial conditions.”

For Bitcoin traders, the warning reaches beyond Silicon Valley’s race for chips and data centers.

A sharp reversal in AI spending could tighten liquidity across equities and credit, forcing crypto into a difficult test: whether Bitcoin trades first as another risk asset in a selloff, or whether its longer-term monetary argument begins to regain force after the shock.

AI spending boom draws central-bank scrutiny

The BIS, which serves as a forum for central banks, used its annual economic report to warn that the race to dominate artificial intelligence may be pushing investment beyond levels that future returns can support.

BIS stated:

“The current surge in capital expenditure could prove unsustainable if supply bottlenecks restrain production. Intense competition for market leadership may fuel overinvestment further, as seen in previous innovation waves, increasing the risk of a sharp reversal if AI payoffs disappoint.”

The concern is not that AI lacks economic potential. The BIS said the technology could eventually lift productivity in ways that separate it from earlier waves of automation and software development. If AI systems become capable of improving their own performance and helping generate new ideas, the long-term macroeconomic impact could be significant.

However, the near-term financial risk is different. Companies like Google, OpenAI, and Anthropic are committing enormous sums before there is clarity on how much revenue the spending will produce, how durable that revenue will be, and how quickly the infrastructure behind AI will become obsolete.

Indeed, the largest technology companies have poured money into chips, cloud capacity, data centers, electricity supply and networking equipment as they compete for users and market share.

The scale of that race has helped reinforce investor confidence in technology stocks, while also lifting demand across suppliers and infrastructure firms tied to the AI buildout.

However, the BIS warned that fierce competition can create its own vulnerability. If every major player spends heavily to avoid falling behind, the sector can end up with too much capacity, lower returns, and a financing structure that becomes difficult to sustain once optimism fades.

That dynamic has appeared before. The BIS pointed to earlier investment booms tied to canals, railways, electrification and the internet.

While each technology later changed the economy, they also produced periods when investors financed too much too quickly, which eventually resulted in painful reversals.

In view of this, the BIC concluded:

“The scale and pace of the current AI investment boom accompanied by expectations of large productivity payoffs bear resemblance to these precedents, highlighting potential downside risks in the near term.”

Compounding the problem are severe physical bottlenecks. The voracious appetite for computational power is straining the supply of advanced semiconductors, grid equipment, and raw electricity.

According to the BIS, this surging demand is already pressuring electricity prices upward, threatening to bleed into broader inflation metrics at a time when geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have independently strained global supply chains.

Credit risks build beneath the equity rally

Meanwhile, the BIS concern extends far beyond a simple stock market correction and into how the AI shock could impact the broader financial system.

While the early stages of AI development were largely financed through the massive cash reserves of Silicon Valley leaders, the current trillion-dollar scale of investment requires a heavier reliance on debt and increasingly opaque financing structures.

BIS pointed out that AI infrastructure now reaches across corporate debt markets, private credit, lease financing, data-center construction, energy contracts and supplier agreements.

Chipmakers, cloud providers, AI labs, and data-center operators are increasingly linked through equity stakes, purchase commitments and long-term capacity deals.

In fact, Onramp Bitcoin, a BTC-focused financial service firm, recently pointed out that:

“A web of overlapping commitments now binds the AI buildout into a roughly $1 trillion loop: Nvidia invests in AI labs like OpenAI, the labs rent cloud capacity from Oracle and CoreWeave, and the clouds buy Nvidia chips. The same dollar can be booked as investment, funding, revenue, and sales at once, so the headline demand figures stop meaning quite what they seem to.”

The BIS warned that those arrangements can make risks harder to see, noting that the web of claims is built on expected future demand. If AI adoption keeps accelerating, the structure can reinforce itself.

However, stress can move back through the chain if demand disappoints.

This would result in a situation where suppliers may lose orders, and data-center developers may struggle to fill capacity.

At the same time, private credit funds may face pressure on loans tied to software, infrastructure or technology borrowers. And banks may find that their exposure to private credit and nonbank finance is more complicated than headline numbers suggest.

That is why the BIS warning extends beyond technology shares. A fall in AI-related equities would hurt investors directly. A broader reassessment of AI financing could tighten credit conditions for companies that depend on the same funding environment.

Credit spreads have remained relatively narrow, reflecting investor confidence that borrowers can keep servicing debt.

A sharp repricing of equity risk could change that quickly. Once lenders demand more compensation for risk, weaker borrowers face higher refinancing costs, reduced access to capital and pressure to cut investment.

That is the path through which an AI disappointment could become a macro event.

Bitcoin’s first reaction may be defensive

Bitcoin’s role in that kind of economic shock would be complicated as the asset is often presented by supporters as a hedge against monetary debasement, fiscal stress and the fragility of the financial system. Its supply is fixed, it has no corporate issuer, and it does not depend on a company’s earnings or debt repayment schedule.

Those features may become more attractive if an AI credit bust eventually forces policymakers to ease financial conditions. But in the early stage of a broad selloff, Bitcoin would likely face the same pressure as other risk assets.

When liquidity tightens, investors often sell liquid positions first. Bitcoin trades continuously, can be sold quickly, and is held by many investors who also own equities, exchange-traded products, derivatives, and other high-beta assets. That makes it vulnerable when portfolios are being de-risked.

Recent market behavior supports that concern. CryptoSlate recently reported that Bitcoin fell under $63,000 after South Korea’s benchmark KOSPI stock index plunged nearly 10% last week.

That decline showed that liquidity conditions, leverage, and risk appetite can dominate scarcity narratives for long periods.

An AI-led market shock could follow a similar sequence. Technology stocks tied to the buildout would likely fall first. Credit spreads could widen as investors reassess debt linked to data centers, suppliers and private financing vehicles. Funds facing losses or margin pressure may then cut positions across crypto and other liquid assets.

In that phase, Bitcoin would not need a direct connection to AI infrastructure to be affected. It would only need to be part of the same risk budget.

The liquidity question comes next

However, the second stage depends on the government's response to the ensuing market carnage.

If a reversal in AI investment remains contained within a small group of technology companies, the damage may stay limited. Equities would reprice, suppliers would adjust, and investors would reassess valuations without forcing a major shift in monetary policy.

But the risk flagged by the BIS is that the spending boom has grown large enough to affect the wider financial system.

This suggests that a significant pullback in AI capex could hit corporate investment, employment, household wealth and credit availability at the same time. Those pressures could become more severe if inflation remains elevated and central banks feel unable to cut rates quickly.

That creates a difficult setup for risk assets. Higher inflation could keep policy tight even as investment weakens. Tighter credit could expose leverage in private markets. Falling equity prices could reduce household wealth and slow consumption. Each channel could reinforce the others.

For Bitcoin, the policy path is crucial. The asset has often performed best when liquidity expands, real rates fall, and investors expect central banks to support markets. A credit shock that eventually brings easier money could revive that trade.

Arthur Hayes, the co-founder of BitMEX, has argued that an AI bust could help drive Bitcoin much higher if authorities respond with renewed liquidity creation and investors rotate away from debt-heavy financial structures.

That view remains speculative, but it captures why some crypto traders are looking at AI capex and credit markets as potential drivers of the next Bitcoin cycle.

However, the timing is uncertain. So, a trader betting on the eventual liquidity response may still have to endure the drawdown that comes before it.

The post Why a collapse in $1 trillion AI spending boom could hit Bitcoin traders first appeared first on CryptoSlate.

The biggest fear hanging over markets right now isn't a crypto problem at all — it's artificial intelligence. A growing chorus of analysts is warning that the AI boom has inflated into a bubble, and that an AI bubble crash could send shockwaves straight into Bitcoin ($BTC) and the broader crypto market.

Here's the uncomfortable part: the early warning signs analysts flagged have already played out. Crypto has been bleeding for months as capital rotated out of digital assets and into AI stocks — Bitcoin has already fallen from above $100K to around $60K. So the real question now isn't "what if there's a small AI wobble." It's: what happens if the AI bubble actually crashes from here, on top of an already-weakened market?

What is the AI bubble — and why are analysts warning about it?

The "AI bubble" refers to the fear that valuations across AI stocks and infrastructure have inflated far beyond what the underlying economics justify. The warning signs are flashing in institutional surveys. In a Bank of America survey, 45% of fund managers flagged an "AI bubble" as the market's biggest tail risk, up from just 11% two months earlier, and more than half said they believe AI stocks are already trading in bubble territory due to huge spending and poor return on investment.

The core problem is a massive mismatch between spending and revenue. Financial analyst HedgieMarkets warned the AI boom risks a far harsher crash than the 2000s dot-com bubble, arguing the sector spent roughly $400 billion to generate just $60 billion in revenue in 2025, with most firms seeing no returns. Worse, the way it's been financed makes it fragile. Unlike the equity-funded dot-com era, today's AI expansion is debt-driven, raising the risk of cascading failures across private equity, banks, insurers and already-stressed consumers if growth expectations collapse.

The scale of the liquidity involved is staggering. Arthur Hayes estimates roughly $1.5 trillion in debt was issued by hyperscalers and AI infrastructure companies between November 2022 and mid-2026 — almost exactly matching the $1.5 trillion rise in M2 money supply over the same period — leading him to argue "AI sucked up all created dollars."

The correction analysts warned about has already started

This is the key context most coverage misses. Back in late 2025, when analysts first sounded the alarm, $Bitcoin was trading above $100K, and the warning was that an AI-driven risk-off move could drag it down toward $60K–$75K.

At the time, that was the bear case. Analysts warned Bitcoin could fall to the $60,000–$75,000 range if the AI bubble pops, with institutional support helping limit losses compared to past crashes. There was even a fundamental floor argument. Analyst Nomad Bullstreet suggested Bitcoin's price may not decline below its average production cost, estimated around $71,000–$75,000.

But here's the thing: the market has already fallen into that zone. Bitcoin slid from above $100K all the way to around $60K — and the driver was exactly the dynamic analysts described. The warning was never about AI directly attacking crypto code — it's about capital, the vast rivers of speculative money that have flowed into both sectors. A loss of faith in AI valuations would trigger a broad risk-off panic, and digital assets, sitting on the speculative end of the spectrum, often get sold first.

In other words, the mild correction the analysts forecast isn't a future risk — it's already happened. Capital has been rotating out of crypto and into AI infrastructure all year, and Bitcoin pre-emptively priced in a lot of that pain. The old $60K–$75K "production cost floor" has already broken.

That reframes everything. The relevant question is no longer "what if AI corrects" — it's "what if the bubble actually crashes now, from a starting point that's already deep in the red?"

How would a full AI bubble crash hit crypto from here?

If the warned-about rotation was phase one, an outright crash would be phase two — and it would land on a market with far less cushion than it had at $100K.

Crypto's behavior makes it especially vulnerable. The crypto market in 2026 continues to act as a high-beta risk asset, meaning it tends to amplify broader market sentiment, particularly in response to tech and AI-linked equity volatility — and a crash could trigger an outsized initial drop even if crypto fundamentals haven't changed.

There's also a forced-selling dimension that accelerates everything. Institutional funds and quantitative traders that allocate across both tech stocks and crypto may cut both simultaneously in times of stress, while leveraged positions in crypto futures and perpetuals can trigger cascading liquidations that accelerate the downward move. And the liquidity logic is brutal: if AI stocks collapse, no excess capital remains to flow into Bitcoin, and banks that lent against AI valuations would pull back credit, tightening conditions broadly.

It's not unanimously bearish, though. Some see a crash as ultimately bullish for Bitcoin further out. Arthur Hayes believes an AI bubble crash could create short-term pressure on Bitcoin, but his long-term outlook remains bullish because a major market shock could push governments and central banks back toward liquidity support, stimulus, and money printing — a "dump then pump" thesis.

The extreme bear case: Bitcoin at $20K, ETH at $800?

Here's the scenario circulating among the most aggressive bears — and a clear caveat upfront: these are worst-case, low-probability targets that would require a full systemic financial crisis, not just a sector correction.

But with Bitcoin already at ~$60K — having broken the old "floor" — a true AI bubble crash from current levels is what makes these deeper targets even thinkable. In a systemic unwind, where the AI bubble crashes violently, debt-driven contagion spreads to banks and credit markets, and crypto's high-beta nature plays out fully, the speculative cascade from here looks like:

• Bitcoin ($BTC) toward $20,000 — roughly another 65% down from current levels, requiring the institutional bid to evaporate entirely amid forced selling.
• Ethereum ($ETH) toward $800 — consistent with ETH's tendency to fall harder than BTC, amplified by relentless ETF outflows.
• XRP ($XRP) toward $0.30 — reflecting how altcoins typically lose multiples of Bitcoin's percentage in a deep flush.
• Solana ($SOL) toward $20 — among the most exposed, given its high-beta profile and reliance on speculative capital.

Be clear-eyed about what this requires: not just an AI correction (which has arguably already begun), but a full-blown global financial crisis with cascading credit failures. As one expert warned, economic historian Carlota Perez cautioned that an AI and crypto bust could lead to a global economic collapse of "unimaginable proportions." That's the tail risk these numbers reflect — a doomsday cascade, not the probable path.

Will the AI Bubble Affect Crypto Prices?

The framing that matters most: the correction analysts warned about has largely already happened — that's a big part of why Bitcoin fell from $100K to $60K as capital rotated into AI. What hasn't happened yet is a full AI bubble crash, and if it comes, it would hit a market that's already weakened and has far less cushion than it did six months ago.

That's what makes the extreme targets — BTC $20K, ETH $800, XRP $0.30, SOL $20 — worth knowing as a worst-case stress test. They're not a base-case forecast; they'd require systemic financial contagion, not just an AI sector wobble. But starting from $60K rather than $100K, the downside math is no longer as far-fetched as it once sounded.

The smart takeaway: respect the AI-correlation risk, keep your leverage in check, and watch the Nasdaq and AI-stock sentiment as closely as the crypto charts — because right now, that's where Bitcoin's next big move is being decided.

What Is Coinbase One?

Coinbase One is Coinbase's paid subscription membership. Instead of paying a fee on every trade, members pay a flat recurring price and unlock zero-fee trading up to a monthly cap, along with a bundle of rewards, protection, and support benefits.

The idea is simple: turn a series of per-trade costs into one predictable subscription, while layering on perks that active users tend to value. Coinbase One began in the US as a straightforward subscription that let traders pay zero trading fees up to $10,000 in monthly volume, and has since expanded in both geography and benefits. It has grown into a sizeable community — the membership has passed 600,000 members across 42 countries.

How Much Does Coinbase One Cost?

Coinbase One now comes in three tiers, so members can match their plan to how much they trade. Basic costs $4.99 monthly or $49.99 yearly, Preferred costs $29.99 or $299.99, and Premium costs $299.99 or $2,999.99.

The zero-fee trading allowance scales with each tier:

• Basic — waives trading fees up to $500 in monthly volume.
• Preferred — waives trading fees up to $10,000 in monthly volume.
• Premium — advertises unlimited zero-fee trading.

What Benefits Does Coinbase One Include?

Beyond zero-fee trading, the membership bundles several features designed to add ongoing value:

• USDC rewards. Members earn 3.5% APY on USDC balances, with daily accrual, weekly Friday payouts, no minimum balance, and the choice to receive rewards in USDC or $Bitcoin.
• Advanced trading rebate. Preferred and Premium members can receive 25% back on Coinbase Advanced spot fees in USDC, capped at $100 monthly.
• Boosted staking and onchain rewards, including free gas on Base.
• Account protection. Up to $250,000 of protection against unauthorized access to your account.
• Priority support. Preferred and Premium members get 24/7 priority support, typically connecting with a representative within minutes — and Premium members gain access to a concierge desk with a dedicated account manager.

Does Coinbase One Remove All Fees?

It's worth being clear on what zero-fee actually means. Coinbase One removes the explicit trading fee on eligible buys and sells up to your tier's cap, but it doesn't eliminate every cost. Quoted prices can still include a spread, and the zero-fee benefit is not universal across all order types or products. Understanding this distinction helps members set accurate expectations about their real all-in trading costs.

Who Is Coinbase One For?

Coinbase One is built around a simple question: will the benefits you use outweigh the subscription you pay? That makes it a strong fit for some users and unnecessary for others.

It tends to serve these groups well:

• Frequent traders who would otherwise pay recurring per-trade fees, and can offset the subscription through the zero-fee allowance.
• Long-term holders with meaningful balances, who benefit from USDC rewards and account protection.
• Active Coinbase ecosystem users who stake, use Base, or trade on Coinbase Advanced and can stack the rebate and reward perks.

The membership can pay for itself through fee discounts, USDC rewards, and card cashback for users who hold a significant amount on Coinbase or trade frequently.

When Might Coinbase One Not Be Worth It?

To keep things balanced, the subscription isn't for everyone. For casual traders who won't take full advantage of the benefits, Coinbase Advanced offers low fees for free without any subscription. If your trading volume is light and you don't hold much USDC or use the wider ecosystem, the math may not justify the monthly cost. The lower-priced Basic tier exists partly to address this, giving occasional users an entry point at a smaller commitment.

Is There a Coinbase One Card?

Yes. There's a related product, the Coinbase One Card, a US-only American Express credit card offering 2–4% Bitcoin back on spending. It's tied directly to the membership: an active, paid Coinbase One subscription is required to open and maintain the card, and if the membership lapses, the card account may be closed.

Is Coinbase One Worth It?

Coinbase One packages several perks — zero-fee trading, USDC yield, staking boosts, protection, and priority support — into a single subscription with tiers to match different activity levels. For users who trade regularly, hold meaningful balances, or lean into the broader Coinbase ecosystem, the benefits can comfortably outweigh the cost. For lighter, occasional users, the free Coinbase Advanced route may make more sense.

The practical takeaway is to estimate how much you'll actually use each benefit, then weigh that against your chosen tier's price. With the option to cancel anytime and a low-cost Basic entry point, it's straightforward to test whether the membership fits how you use Coinbase.

Disclaimers:

1. Trading in crypto is highly risky and may not be suitable for all as the entire amount invested could be lost.
2. Information is provided for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell a particular digital asset or to employ a particular investment strategy.
3. Coinbase offers simple and advanced trading in eligible jurisdictions. Advanced trading is for experienced traders and is subject to the Trading Rules. Fees on the two platforms vary; maker fees based on volume. 
4. Staking is available only in eligible jurisdictions and for eligible networks. Rewards rate is based on the estimated protocol rate and is subject to change. Terms apply.
5. Coinbase One zero trading fees: Coinbase Advanced, DEX fees, and derivatives excluded. Coinbase includes a spread in the price when you buy, sell, or convert cryptocurrencies. For Basic and Preferred tiers, a monthly trading volume limit (found in member home) applies. Trades over this limit incur trading fees.  

Polymarket Hack: A Major Warning for Prediction Markets

Polymarket has become one of the most talked-about platforms in crypto, especially as prediction markets continue to attract traders, political observers, sports fans and macro speculators. But the latest Polymarket hack is now testing one of the sector’s biggest questions: can prediction markets go mainstream if users still face serious security risks?

According to recent reports, hackers stole around $3.1 million from 11 user wallets after a third-party vendor connected to Polymarket was compromised. The attack reportedly allowed malicious code to be injected into the platform’s frontend for some users, leading to stolen funds before the issue was contained.

Polymarket has promised to refund affected users in full, which may help reduce the immediate damage. But the bigger issue is not just whether users get their money back. The bigger issue is trust.

Prediction markets are built on the idea that users can trade on real-world outcomes, from elections and sports to economic data and global events. But if users start worrying about frontend attacks, wallet drains and third-party vulnerabilities, the industry could face a much harder path toward mainstream adoption.

What Happened in the Polymarket Hack?

The Polymarket hack was not reported as a direct failure of the platform’s core market idea. Instead, the issue appears to have come from a compromised third-party vendor. This allowed attackers to inject malicious code into Polymarket’s website for some users.

That distinction matters.

A smart contract exploit would raise questions about Polymarket’s core settlement infrastructure. A frontend or supply-chain attack raises a different concern: even if the core protocol is secure, users can still be exposed if the website, vendor stack or software dependencies are compromised.

In this case, the reported losses reached around $3.1 million in PUSD from 11 user wallets. The stolen funds were reportedly moved from Polygon to Ethereum, showing how quickly attackers can shift assets across chains once funds are drained.

Polymarket said the incident was contained and that affected users would be refunded. That response is important, but it does not erase the reputational damage. For many users, the question now becomes simple: if a major prediction market can be hit through its frontend, how safe is the average user really?

Why This Hack Matters Beyond Polymarket

The timing of the hack is especially important because prediction markets have been gaining serious attention. Polymarket is no longer just a niche crypto platform. It has become a place where traders try to price real-world probabilities before traditional media, polls or analysts catch up.

That is exactly why the hack matters.

When a platform becomes more popular, it also becomes a bigger target. Hackers do not only attack obscure DeFi protocols anymore. They target platforms with liquidity, attention, and users who are already connecting wallets and approving transactions.

This is the risk that many crypto users underestimate. A platform can look smooth, simple and mainstream on the surface, while still carrying the same wallet-level risks that exist across Web3.

Prediction markets want to become the future of information trading. But for that to happen, they need more than exciting markets and viral screenshots. They need users to believe that the platform is safe enough to trust with real money.

The Bigger Problem: Frontend Risk in Crypto

One of the biggest lessons from the Polymarket hack is that crypto security is not only about smart contracts. Users often hear that a protocol is audited, decentralized or on-chain, and assume that means they are fully protected.

But frontend risk is different.

If a website is compromised, users may be tricked into signing malicious transactions without realizing what is happening. If a third-party dependency is attacked, even a trusted platform can become dangerous for some users. If a wallet approval is abused, funds can disappear quickly.

This is why supply-chain attacks are so serious. They do not always require breaking the blockchain. They can target the layers around the blockchain: websites, vendors, scripts, hosting services, browser wallets or software packages.

For Polymarket, the problem is not only the dollar amount stolen. The problem is that the attack reminds users that crypto platforms still depend on many off-chain systems, even when the final settlement happens on-chain.

Are Prediction Markets Ready for Mainstream Adoption?

Prediction markets have a strong argument. They can turn public opinion into tradable probabilities, often reacting faster than traditional forecasts. During major political, sports and macro events, they can become powerful real-time sentiment tools.

But mainstream adoption requires trust.

A casual user may accept price volatility. They may accept that a bet can lose. But they are less likely to accept losing funds because of a hacked vendor, malicious frontend or wallet-draining script.

This is the challenge facing Polymarket and the broader prediction market sector. The product is interesting. The demand is real. The narratives are strong. But the security model still has to become easier, clearer and safer for ordinary users.

If prediction markets remain too risky for non-technical users, they may stay popular with crypto-native traders but struggle to reach a truly mainstream audience.

Could the Hack Slow Polymarket’s Growth?

The short-term damage may be limited if every affected user is fully refunded. In crypto, quick refunds can help calm panic and show that a platform is willing to protect users.

However, the long-term impact depends on transparency.

Users will want to know how the attack happened, which vendor was compromised, what was changed after the incident, and how similar attacks will be prevented in the future. Without clear answers, the hack could become a trust problem rather than just a security incident.

The platform also faces a bigger perception risk. Polymarket’s appeal comes from being fast, sharp and ahead of the crowd. But if users start associating it with hacks, insider concerns, or wallet risks, that image could weaken.

This does not mean Polymarket is finished. Far from it. But it does mean the platform now has to prove that it can protect users at the same speed that it scales.

What Users Should Learn From the Polymarket Hack

The main lesson is simple: in crypto, the website matters as much as the wallet.

Users should be careful with wallet approvals, avoid keeping more funds than needed on active trading platforms, and regularly check which contracts have access to their assets. Hardware wallets, separate trading wallets and limited approvals can reduce risk, especially for users interacting with DeFi or prediction markets.

But this should not be only the user’s responsibility. Platforms also need stronger security monitoring, safer frontend systems, better vendor controls and clearer warnings when users are signing sensitive transactions.

If prediction markets want mainstream users, they cannot rely on crypto-native habits alone. They need security that feels simple, visible and reliable.

Final Thoughts: The Prediction Market Boom Just Got a Reality Check

The Polymarket hack does not end the prediction market story. In fact, it may prove how important the sector has become. Hackers usually follow attention, liquidity and growth. Polymarket has all three.

But the incident is still a major reality check.

Prediction markets are trying to become one of crypto’s most useful real-world applications. They offer a new way to trade information, sentiment and probability. Yet the $3.1 million hack shows that the industry still has to solve basic trust and security problems before it can fully go mainstream.

Polymarket’s promise to refund affected users is a positive step. But the real test comes next: whether the platform can convince traders that this was a contained incident, not a warning sign of deeper infrastructure risk.

For now, the prediction market hype is still alive. But after this hack, users may be much more careful before placing their next bet.

Bitcoin Price Prediction: The Saylor Story Is Getting More Complicated

Bitcoin is once again trading near the critical $60,000 level, and the market is struggling to find a strong recovery signal. But this time, the biggest story may not be Bitcoin’s price alone. The more important question is what is happening around Strategy, Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin-focused company, and whether one of the strongest bullish engines in the market is starting to lose power.

For years, Strategy was more than just a public company holding Bitcoin. It became a symbol of institutional conviction. Every new BTC purchase from Michael Saylor reinforced the idea that large balance sheets could keep absorbing Bitcoin supply, even during market weakness.

Now, that narrative is facing its biggest test.

Strategy’s valuation has reportedly fallen below the value of its Bitcoin holdings, meaning the company’s famous BTC premium has disappeared. For Bitcoin traders, this matters because Strategy was not just another holder. It was one of the most visible buyers in the market. If that buying machine slows down, Bitcoin could lose an important psychological support level.

Why Strategy’s Lost Premium Matters for Bitcoin

The key issue is Strategy’s mNAV, or market value to net asset value. In simple terms, this compares how the market values Strategy against the value of the Bitcoin it holds.

When Strategy traded at a premium to its Bitcoin holdings, the model was powerful. The company could issue stock or preferred shares, raise capital, buy more Bitcoin, and potentially increase BTC per share. That created a cycle: higher MSTR valuation helped fund more BTC purchases, and more BTC purchases strengthened the bullish story.

But when the premium disappears, the math changes.

If Strategy issues new shares while its valuation is below the value of its underlying Bitcoin, that can become dilutive for shareholders. In other words, the company may still be able to raise money, but doing so becomes less attractive and more controversial.

This is why the current Bitcoin price prediction is no longer only about charts. It is also about whether Strategy can keep playing the same role it played during the previous bull market.

Strategy’s Bitcoin Holdings Are Now Under Pressure

Strategy still owns a massive Bitcoin stack. The company holds more than 847,000 BTC, with an average acquisition price above $75,000. With Bitcoin trading around $60,000, the market value of that stack is now far below its aggregate purchase cost.

This does not mean Strategy has realized losses. Bitcoin losses only become realized if the company sells. But the gap matters because it affects market confidence, shareholder sentiment, and the company’s ability to raise capital cheaply.

The pressure is also visible in STRC, Strategy’s perpetual preferred stock. STRC has traded well below its $100 par value, with investors now watching the June 30 ex-dividend date and monthly dividend reset. If the market demands a higher yield, Strategy’s cost of capital rises.

That is the real concern.

The Bitcoin market is not just asking whether Saylor is still bullish. It is asking whether the structure around Strategy can stay strong if Bitcoin remains weak.

Is Strategy Still a Bullish Signal for BTC?

Michael Saylor has continued to signal long-term confidence in Bitcoin, and Strategy remains the largest corporate BTC holder. From a long-term perspective, the company’s thesis has not changed: Bitcoin is still treated as a strategic treasury asset.

But short-term market conditions have changed.

In the past, Saylor buying more Bitcoin was seen almost automatically as bullish. Today, investors are looking deeper. They are asking how the purchases are funded, whether new issuance is accretive or dilutive, and whether preferred stock pressure could limit Strategy’s future buying power.

This does not mean Strategy is finished. The company still has options. It can manage its capital structure, adjust financing decisions, use cash reserves, or wait for better market conditions. But the easy part of the trade may be over.

The old story was: Strategy buys Bitcoin, Bitcoin goes up, MSTR trades at a premium.

The new story is: Bitcoin must recover before Strategy’s premium can fully return.

Bitcoin Price Prediction: Is $55K Next?

Bitcoin’s next major test is the $60,000 zone. This level is both psychological and technical. If BTC manages to hold above it and reclaim the $62,000 to $64,000 area, the market could stabilize and attempt a recovery toward $65,000 and then $70,000.

However, if Bitcoin loses $60,000 with strong selling pressure, the next important downside target is around $55,000. A deeper breakdown could then open the door toward the $52,000 to $50,000 region, especially if risk assets remain weak and Strategy-related fears continue to grow.

For now, the short-term Bitcoin price prediction remains cautious. BTC needs to prove that the $60,000 area can hold. Without a clean rebound, traders may continue pricing in a move toward $55,000.

Why This Crash Feels Different

This Bitcoin correction feels different because it is not only about macro pressure, regulation, or a normal crypto pullback. It is also about the market questioning one of the strongest Bitcoin accumulation stories of the past few years.

If Strategy’s premium has disappeared, then investors may start viewing MSTR less like a high-growth Bitcoin proxy and more like a leveraged Bitcoin holding vehicle. That change in perception matters.

It could reduce enthusiasm for other Bitcoin treasury companies. It could make future BTC purchases harder to finance. And it could weaken one of the narratives that helped Bitcoin during previous rallies.

At the same time, this fear could also mark a late-stage panic moment. If Bitcoin holds $60,000 and begins recovering, Strategy’s valuation could improve quickly, STRC pressure could ease, and the bullish treasury narrative could return.

That is why the next few days are crucial.

Final Thoughts: Saylor Is Still Bullish, But the Market Wants Proof

Michael Saylor may still be one of Bitcoin’s loudest bulls, but the market is no longer reacting to conviction alone. Investors now want proof that Strategy’s model still works under pressure.

If Bitcoin reclaims $64,000, the current panic may fade and the focus could shift back to accumulation. But if BTC breaks below $60,000, Strategy’s lost premium may become a bigger bearish signal, with $55,000 becoming the next serious target.

For now, the Bitcoin price prediction remains fragile. The market is not only watching BTC charts anymore. It is watching Saylor’s balance sheet, Strategy’s premium, and whether the biggest corporate Bitcoin bet can survive a much tougher phase of the cycle.

A grim narrative is making the rounds in crypto circles: that Bitcoin ($BTC) is fundamentally broken, that AI and quantum computing have signed its death warrant, and that the price could collapse toward $16,000 or lower. With Bitcoin already bruised below $60,000 after a brutal sell-off, the fear is spreading fast.

So is the "death of Bitcoin" thesis real, or is this just the latest cycle of extreme FUD? Let's break down the actual argument behind the crash call — and then weigh it against what the evidence really shows.

What is the bear case behind a $16K Bitcoin?

The most aggressive bear thesis ties together several threads into one dark picture. The argument goes roughly like this: encryption is on borrowed time, anonymity is already gone thanks to mass data collection and chain-surveillance, and the combination of AI and quantum computing will eventually crack the cryptography Bitcoin depends on. In that framing, Bitcoin's core value proposition — censorship resistance and cryptographic security — is fatally undermined, and the price simply reflects a slow realization that the "case for Bitcoin is dead."

It's worth being clear: a $16,000 target is not a mainstream analyst forecast. It sits at the extreme end of the bear spectrum. The most pessimistic credible published views are far less severe — veteran trader Peter Brandt has warned that if Bitcoin's parabolic advance is truly broken, BTC could face declines exceeding 80% from peak levels, potentially as low as $25,000, which represents the most bearish outlook in the current forecast landscape. Even on-chain bears land higher than $16K — analyst Ki Young Ju has argued that history, if it rhymes, puts a worst-case scenario somewhere near or below $30,000.

In other words, $16K is a narrative-driven doom number, not something the data-driven bears are modeling.

Is the quantum and AI threat to Bitcoin real?

Here's where it gets nuanced: the underlying fear isn't pure fantasy. There is a genuine, active debate about quantum computing and AI as long-term threats to crypto cryptography.

The catalyst was a major piece of research. On March 31, 2026, Google's Quantum AI team published a whitepaper showing that breaking the elliptic curve cryptography protecting Bitcoin could require 20× fewer quantum resources than estimated in 2019 — fewer than 500,000 physical qubits — and identified roughly 6.9 million BTC (about 32% of supply) in wallets with exposed public keys. That's a real, fixed pool of vulnerable coins.

AI is the accelerant in this story. Security researchers warn that AI is accelerating the development of quantum computing, creating a new cybersecurity arms race, and an AI model recently uncovered a four-year-old bug in Zcash that could have enabled unlimited token issuance, triggering a steep sell-off and intensifying fears that AI will expose hidden vulnerabilities across crypto. The concern that "AI killed Bitcoin" stems partly from this — the idea that machine learning compresses the timeline on threats that once felt decades away. As one observer put it, the synergy has shifted quantum from a "physics problem" to an "engineering challenge."

There's also a real concern about harvested data. State actors are almost certainly collecting blockchain data today, planning to decrypt it once quantum hardware matures — and the 6.9M exposed BTC are fixed targets. That's the kernel of truth behind the "anonymity is gone through collected data" claim.

Why the "Bitcoin is dead" thesis is likely overblown

Now for the other side — and it's a strong one. The expert consensus is that this threat is real but not imminent, and that Bitcoin has ample time to adapt.

On the hardware timeline, the gap is enormous. ARK Invest concluded in March 2026 that we're still at "Stage 0" — quantum computers exist but lack any commercially relevant capability — and the most optimistic hardware projections don't place us at 500K qubits before 2033–2035. Some of the most respected voices in cryptography are even more dismissive of near-term panic. Blockstream CEO and cypherpunk Adam Back argues a cryptographically relevant quantum threat is likely 20 to 40 years away, emphasizing that Bitcoin's security is about digital signatures, not just encryption, and that the network has ample time to integrate quantum-secure signature schemes.

Crucially, most Bitcoin isn't even exposed in the way the doom thesis implies. The threat depends on whether a public key is visible: modern hashed addresses (P2PKH and SegWit) don't reveal public keys until the moment a transaction is broadcast, so those coins are not quantum-vulnerable until spent — and never reusing an address leaves only a tiny window to crack a key.

And the network is already hardening. BIP-360, which introduces a quantum-resistant address type, was merged into Bitcoin's official repository in February 2026, with a testnet implementation already live across 50+ miners. The experts' bottom line is blunt: the consensus among Google, ARK Invest and most cryptographers is that quantum attacks are not imminent — the advice is to move to modern address types and support the migration, not to panic sell.

So what's really driving the Bitcoin crash?

If the "AI killed Bitcoin" story is overblown, why is the price actually down? The real drivers are far more mundane — and far more familiar.

The current sell-off has two main engines. The first is the mechanical cycle, where late leverage gets flushed, sentiment collapses, and everyone declares Bitcoin dead — it happens every time. The second is AI, but as a capital-rotation story: since April, memory chip ETFs pulled in $12.7 billion while Bitcoin ETFs bled over $2 billion. People sold Bitcoin to buy AI stocks. That's the key distinction — AI is hurting Bitcoin by competing for capital, not by breaking its cryptography.

Sentiment did the rest. For years the narrative was that Strategy's Michael Saylor never sells; the moment he did sell a tiny fraction, the market treated it like a five-alarm fire, and roughly $1.6 billion in leveraged positions were liquidated in the cascade that followed. None of that is about quantum computers — it's classic FUD and forced selling.

Tellingly, the smart money is doing the opposite of panicking. The MVRV-Z score sits deep in the accumulation zone, and long-term holders just posted their largest 30-day accumulation on record — buying more aggressively right now than at any point in Bitcoin's history.

Will Bitcoin Price Continue Crashing?

Could Bitcoin fall further? Absolutely. The credible bear cases see real downside risk, with targets clustering anywhere from the mid-$50Ks down to $25K–$30K in worst-case scenarios, driven by ETF outflows, AI capital rotation, and broken bull narratives. That's a genuine risk worth respecting.

But a crash to $16,000 driven by "AI and quantum killing Bitcoin" is a narrative running well ahead of the evidence. The quantum threat is real but years — likely a decade or more — away, most BTC isn't exposed, and the network is already upgrading its defenses. Meanwhile the long-term holders who've survived every prior "Bitcoin is dead" cycle are accumulating, not capitulating.

The honest takeaway: separate the genuine macro risk (which is real) from the doom narrative (which is mostly fear). Respect the downtrend, manage your risk, and don't make decisions based on a "death of Bitcoin" thesis that the actual cryptographers say is decades premature.

Qihoo 360 unveiled a homegrown vulnerability-hunting AI this week—and Z.ai went further, releasing comparable capabilities as open-weight code anyone can download.

The court overturned a 91-year precedent, allowing President Trump to fire key federal regulators whenever he wishes for almost any reason.

Meta says its latest Brain2Qwerty system translates brain activity into sentences using non-invasive brain recordings, improving the accuracy of AI-powered neural decoding.

BTC kissed $58,800 and bounced. The daily chart is deep in bear territory, and prediction markets are betting on further pain before a rebound.

The digital asset firm cut its odds of the market structure bill passing this year to a coin toss, pointing to a shrinking Senate calendar.

The long-standing ideological feud between Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse and Strategy Executive Chairman Michael Saylor has reignited over competing visions for the cryptocurrency industry's future.

In a recent interview on the All Things Markets show, the Wall Street veteran warned that panic-selling now could be a grave mistake.

Whales spark a supply squeeze by pulling 781 billion SHIB off exchanges, creating an on-chain deficit that forced Shiba Inu coin back into the top 30.

XRPLF and VS1 Finance are building an open-source compliance framework for permissioned lending on the XRP Ledger — aimed at institutional DeFi developers.

Financial commentator and long-time crypto skeptic Peter Schiff has sounded the alarm on Strategy's newly announced "BTC Monetization Program."

TLDR:

• XRP Ledger Foundation and VS1 Finance are building an open-source compliant lending reference application for XRPL.
• The project combines Credentials, Permissioned Domains, Vaults and Lending Protocol into one institutional framework.
• Developers will be free to fork, study and extend the reference application for regulated lending use cases.
• The initiative focuses on permissioned lending infrastructure designed for institutions operating on XRP Ledger.

The XRP Ledger Foundation has partnered with VS1 Finance to develop an open-source reference application for compliant lending on the XRP Ledger. The initiative focuses on regulated lending by combining native XRP Ledger features with permissioned access controls. 

The project aims to provide developers with a reusable framework for building institutional lending products. It also highlights the network’s growing focus on compliance-ready blockchain infrastructure for financial markets.

XRP Ledger Foundation expands compliant lending infrastructure on XRP Ledger

The new application will use several native XRP Ledger building blocks designed for regulated financial activity. These include Credentials, Permissioned Domains, Single Asset Vaults, and the Lending Protocol.

According to the XRP Ledger Foundation’s announcement on X, the application will serve as an open-source reference implementation rather than a closed commercial product. Developers will be able to examine its architecture and adapt it for their own use cases.

The framework targets permissioned lending environments where participants must satisfy compliance requirements before accessing financial services. That approach allows institutions to operate within predefined identity and authorization rules.

The project reflects continued development around institutional blockchain infrastructure. Instead of introducing new protocol features, the application combines existing XRP Ledger primitives into a practical lending workflow.

XRP Ledger lending app targets institutional crypto finance

VS1 Finance said the collaboration focuses on creating infrastructure that institutions can readily adopt for compliant capital deployment. The company stated on X that permissioned lending can help bridge traditional financial firms with blockchain-based markets.

Rather than limiting access to a single platform, the partners intend to publish the application as open source. Development teams will have the option to fork, modify, or extend the codebase for different lending products.

The announcement places strong emphasis on transparency and ecosystem growth. Open-source reference applications often reduce development time by providing tested implementation examples for builders across the network.

Neither organization disclosed a launch date or technical roadmap alongside the announcement. The initial statements instead centered on the application’s design goals and its role within the broader XRP Ledger ecosystem.

The collaboration arrives as blockchain networks continue developing compliance-focused infrastructure for regulated financial institutions. By combining permissioned access with native lending components, the project seeks to provide a standardized foundation for future XRP 

Ledger lending applications, according to updates shared separately by both the XRP Ledger Foundation and VS1 Finance on X.

The post XRP Ledger Foundation and VS1 Finance Launch Compliant Lending App for XRPL appeared first on Blockonomi.

TL,DR

• Thailand plans a 1:1 baht-backed stablecoin.
• Sandbox trials helped shape the new framework.
• Authorities strengthen foreign exchange enforcement.
• Thailand expands its regulated digital asset ecosystem.

Thailand is preparing to introduce a regulatory framework for a privately issued stablecoin, currently at the core of global crypto regulation, backed one-to-one by the Thai baht, marking another milestone in the country’s evolving digital asset strategy. 

The proposal, expected to enter public consultation before the end of 2026, reflects a broader shift in Thailand’s approach to blockchain technology, where the focus has moved beyond regulating cryptocurrencies toward building long-term financial infrastructure.

According to Bank of Thailand Governor Vitai Ratanakorn, the proposed stablecoin will initially serve as a settlement instrument between licensed financial institutions before any wider public rollout is considered. The central bank expects formal regulations to follow in early 2027 after gathering industry feedback and assessing the results of ongoing pilot programs.

Stablecoin Will Be Fully Backed by Thai Baht Reserves

Unlike a central bank digital currency (CBDC), the proposed token will be issued by regulated private institutions rather than the Bank of Thailand itself. Every token in circulation must be backed by an equivalent amount of Thai baht held in segregated reserve accounts at licensed financial institutions, ensuring full collateralization.

The central bank believes this model offers the efficiency benefits of blockchain-based payments while preserving confidence through strict reserve requirements and regulatory oversight.

During the initial phase, access will remain limited to banks and financial institutions using the stablecoin strictly for interbank settlement. Broader retail applications will only be considered after authorities evaluate operational performance, security, and financial stability implications.

Thailand’s central bank has spent nearly two years studying programmable digital payments through its Programmable Payment Sandbox, first launched in 2024 before being expanded in late 2025 to accommodate additional participants and use cases.

Insights gathered from those pilot programs now form the foundation of the proposed regulatory framework.

Beyond payments, the Bank of Thailand has also explored how blockchain-based settlement infrastructure could support carbon credit trading and sustainable finance initiatives, adding on to its recent venture in AI. Tokenized settlement is viewed as a way to improve transparency, shorten settlement times, and address inefficiencies that continue to affect environmental asset markets.

Thailand Continues Tightening Oversight of Cross-Border Payments

While expanding regulated blockchain innovation, Thai authorities are simultaneously reinforcing existing foreign exchange controls.

Governor Ratanakorn reiterated that personal QR code payments conducted within Thailand must remain denominated in Thai baht. He also warned that renminbi-denominated transactions processed through foreign payment platforms such as Alipay and WeChat Pay are not permitted for domestic transactions.

Between February 2025 and May 2026, regulators reportedly suspended approximately 5,000 accounts linked to peer-to-peer renminbi payment activity.

Financial institutions or payment providers facilitating transactions in currencies other than the baht could face regulatory penalties, including fines, suspension of operations, or revocation of operating licenses.

The governor also made clear that the Bank of Thailand has no intention of licensing speculative retail foreign exchange trading. Institutions providing settlement services for unauthorized forex transactions could be found in violation of Thailand’s Foreign Exchange Control Act of 1942, exposing operators to significant financial penalties and potential prison sentences.

Thailand’s Crypto Policy Has Shifted From Regulation to Market Development

The stablecoin proposal arrives at a time when Thailand’s digital asset framework is entering a more mature phase amid a recent ease on taxes.

After establishing one of Asia’s earliest comprehensive digital asset regulatory regimes through the Emergency Decree on Digital Asset Businesses in 2018, regulators are now concentrating on expanding legitimate market infrastructure rather than simply managing risk.

The Securities and Exchange Commission’s 2026–2028 strategic plan places digital assets alongside traditional financial products instead of treating them as experimental instruments.

The SEC is also developing common technical standards to improve interoperability across tokenized assets while working closely with the Bank of Thailand on settlement mechanisms involving stablecoins, deposit tokens, and electronic money tokens.

Beyond traditional financial products, tokenization is increasingly extending into real estate, infrastructure, entertainment projects, and green finance. Under Thailand’s investment token framework, approved issuers have already raised more than $263 million across several tokenized fundraising projects, with additional offerings progressing through regulatory review.

The post Thailand’s Stablecoin Push Signals Next Phase of Digital Asset Strategy as Central Bank Prepares Baht-Pegged Framework appeared first on Blockonomi.

Quick Overview

• Comcast stock gained momentum following the announcement of a two-company restructuring plan
• Alphabet made its historic debut in the Dow Jones Industrial Average
• Tech sector staged a strong recovery following last week’s downturn
• Investors prepare for Nike’s critical earnings announcement
• Crude oil prices advanced amid US-Iran diplomatic developments

Monday delivered a compelling slate of market developments as investors digested corporate restructuring announcements, index changes, and sector rotations. Let’s examine the five most significant market narratives from the trading session.

Comcast Announces Major Corporate Restructuring

Comcast revealed its intention to restructure into two distinct, standalone entities, separating its technology operations from its media holdings.

Market participants welcomed the news enthusiastically. The rationale is clear: dividing a sprawling conglomerate into specialized businesses allows each segment to be assessed independently based on its individual fundamentals.

Such corporate separations typically streamline decision-making, enhance operational efficiency, and frequently generate renewed investor enthusiasm. The development has prompted market observers to speculate whether other diversified corporations might pursue comparable strategies.

Alphabet Achieves Dow Jones Entry

Alphabet has officially secured its position within the Dow Jones Industrial Average, cementing its place among America’s most prominent publicly traded companies.

This inclusion underscores the undeniable importance of technology in today’s economic landscape. Alphabet’s addition brings substantial representation of artificial intelligence, cloud infrastructure, and digital marketing to the venerable index.

While the Dow membership carries primarily symbolic significance, it enhances visibility among institutional capital and index-tracking investment vehicles. Even as AI competition intensifies, Alphabet maintains its status as among the world’s most lucrative enterprises.

Technology Sector Rebounds From Recent Weakness

Following an extended period of declining valuations, technology equities mounted an impressive comeback during Monday’s session.

The Nasdaq outperformed broader markets as capital flowed back into chip manufacturers, artificial intelligence players, and enterprise software providers. Most market analysts interpreted the previous week’s decline as a healthy consolidation rather than a fundamental trend reversal.

Artificial intelligence investment continues fueling expenditures throughout cloud infrastructure, semiconductor manufacturing, and business software sectors. Market sentiment regarding technology’s sustained expansion trajectory remains fundamentally optimistic.

Nike Financial Results Draw Market Attention

Investor attention is increasingly focused on Nike’s forthcoming quarterly earnings disclosure.

As a bellwether consumer brand with worldwide reach, Nike provides valuable insight into international consumption patterns. Analysts will scrutinize performance metrics from North American markets and China, where purchasing activity has demonstrated volatility.

The athletic apparel giant has been navigating an operational transformation aimed at enhancing margins and refining its merchandise strategy. Positive results could energize the broader retail sector, while disappointing numbers might intensify anxiety regarding consumer expenditure trajectories.

Crude Oil Advances on Geopolitical Developments

Oil prices posted gains Monday as diplomatic exchanges between Washington and Tehran captured energy market participants’ focus.

Middle Eastern political dynamics routinely generate swift reactions in petroleum markets, and commodity traders monitored developments attentively. Elevated crude prices benefit exploration and production companies while simultaneously pressuring airlines, industrial manufacturers, and consumer-facing enterprises.

Given that inflation remains a priority concern for monetary authorities and central banking institutions, every fluctuation in petroleum pricing carries implications for overall market stability.

The post Monday Market Wrap: Comcast Breakup, Alphabet’s Dow Debut, and Tech Stock Rally appeared first on Blockonomi.

Key Points

• Shares of Velo3D advanced 7.1% Monday following the company’s inclusion in both the Russell 3000 and Russell Microcap indexes
• The metal 3D printing firm officially entered both benchmarks on June 29 during the 2026 annual reconstitution process
• Approximately $12.2 trillion in investment assets track Russell US indexes based on May 2026 data
• The company’s market capitalization reached around $496 million, with shares posting gains exceeding 126% year-over-year
• The additive manufacturing specialist will maintain Russell 3000 membership through December 2026’s next reconstitution

Shares of metal additive manufacturing specialist Velo3D (VELO) rallied 7.1% Monday following the company’s addition to both the Russell 3000 Index and Russell Microcap Index, which became effective June 29.

Velo3D, Inc., VELO

The inclusion occurred during the initial 2026 reconstitution of Russell indexes, an annual process that evaluates and ranks the top 4,000 U.S. companies by total market capitalization based on April 30 data.

For smaller publicly traded companies, Russell index inclusion carries significant weight. As of late May 2026, approximately $12.2 trillion in investment capital was benchmarked to Russell US indexes.

This massive pool of passive investment capital typically flows into newly added stocks, as fund managers who track these indexes must purchase shares to maintain accurate index representation.

Prior to Monday’s announcement, VELO had already demonstrated impressive momentum. Over the preceding 12-month period, the stock had appreciated more than 126%, bringing its market capitalization to approximately $496 million entering June.

CEO Arun Jeldi expressed enthusiasm about the development. “Being added to the Russell 3000 and Russell Microcap indexes is an important milestone for Velo3D,” he stated.

“We have made meaningful strides in transforming the company, advancing our technology leadership, and creating value for shareholders. Inclusion in these widely followed indexes broadens our exposure to the investment community.”

Companies included in the Russell 3000 are automatically categorized into either the large-capitalization Russell 1000 or small-capitalization Russell 2000, along with corresponding growth and value style indexes.

Based on Velo3D’s present market capitalization, the firm qualifies for inclusion in both the Russell 2000 and Russell Microcap categories — representing the smaller end of the market spectrum while still delivering significant institutional investor visibility.

Velo3D’s Business Model

Velo3D specializes in metal 3D printing solutions designed primarily for aerospace and defense industry supply chains. The company’s product portfolio encompasses Flow print preparation software, the Sapphire printer series, and the Assure quality assurance platform.

Notable clients include SpaceX and Honeywell — relationships that underscore the company’s credibility within defense and aerospace manufacturing sectors.

Duration of Index Membership and Future Outlook

Velo3D’s Russell 3000 membership remains guaranteed through December 2026’s semi-annual reconstitution event. During that review, the company could potentially migrate between the Russell 1000 and Russell 2000 based on market capitalization fluctuations.

FTSE Russell oversees these benchmark indexes, which rank among the most extensively utilized standards for U.S. equity portfolio managers.

Monday’s 7.1% stock appreciation follows a familiar trend observed when smaller companies gain entry to major indexes — an initial buying surge fueled by passive fund inflows and heightened institutional interest.

The post Velo3D (VELO) Shares Surge 7% Following Russell 3000 Index Inclusion appeared first on Blockonomi.

Key Takeaways

• Alphabet (GOOGL) jumped 3.7% to $350.24 during its inaugural trading session as a Dow Jones Industrial Average constituent, taking over from Verizon Communications.
• The index reshuffle was revealed by S&P Dow Jones Indices on June 23; Alphabet’s elevated share price makes it one of the Dow’s heaviest-weighted stocks.
• With this addition, five of the Magnificent Seven tech giants—Alphabet, Nvidia, Amazon, Apple, and Microsoft—are now Dow components.
• Reports indicate Google has restricted Meta Platforms’ access to Gemini AI infrastructure as computing resource demand reaches unprecedented levels.
• Cloud services revenue at Alphabet surged 63% in Q1 2026—the fastest expansion since the segment’s disclosure began in 2019—with projections hitting $480 billion by 2031.

Alphabet (GOOGL) made its official entrance into the Dow Jones Industrial Average on Monday, and investors responded enthusiastically. Shares advanced 3.7% to reach $350.24 during its debut session as a Dow constituent.

Alphabet Inc., GOOGL

S&P Dow Jones Indices publicly disclosed the index modification on June 23. Alphabet secured the position formerly occupied by Verizon Communications, which ranked among the index’s least impactful members.

Given the Dow’s price-weighted methodology, Alphabet instantly assumes significant influence within the 30-company benchmark. Its premium share valuation grants it substantially greater weight than Verizon commanded.

This development elevates the Magnificent Seven representation in the Dow to five companies. Alphabet now joins Nvidia, Amazon, Apple, and Microsoft within this prestigious index.

The previous restructuring occurred in November 2024, when Nvidia and Sherwin-Williams displaced Intel and Dow Inc.

Passive funds that replicate the Dow must acquire GOOGL shares to maintain proper index tracking. Approximately $115 billion in assets were indexed or benchmarked to the Dow as of December 31, 2024—considerably less than the roughly $20 trillion following the S&P 500, where Alphabet already maintains membership.

Consequently, mandatory purchasing activity stemming from this index revision remains modest compared to potential S&P 500 inclusion.

Tech Giants Rebound and Gemini Capacity Constraints

Monday’s upward movement extended beyond mere index mechanics. The broader Magnificent Seven cohort experienced a robust recovery. Meta, Amazon, and Tesla each advanced over 3%. Nvidia and Microsoft recorded gains exceeding 1%. Apple trailed with a modest 0.1% increase.

The Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF had declined 13% throughout June leading up to Friday—tracking toward its steepest monthly decline since its April 2023 inception. Monday provided welcome respite.

Additional developments contributed momentum to Alphabet’s rally. The Financial Times disclosed that Google has been throttling Meta Platforms’ access to its Gemini AI infrastructure, alongside certain smaller customers, citing overwhelming demand for computational resources.

Neither Google nor Meta provided immediate commentary on the matter.

Cloud Expansion Validates AI Investment Thesis

While restricting client access might superficially suggest revenue constraints, it actually underscores extraordinary demand for Google’s artificial intelligence capabilities.

Alphabet’s cloud business delivered 63% revenue expansion in Q1 2026—representing the division’s most robust performance since the company initiated segment reporting in 2019.

TD Cowen analyst John Blackledge projects cloud revenue will compound at a 37% annual rate, escalating from approximately $100 billion this year to $480 billion by 2031.

Alphabet shares had appreciated roughly 11% year-to-date through the preceding Friday, positioning it among the strongest performers within the Magnificent Seven collective this year.

The post Alphabet (GOOGL) Surges 3.7% on Dow Debut Amid AI Demand Surge appeared first on Blockonomi.

Nearly one year after CNBC’s “Mad Money” host Jim Cramer grouped Palantir (PLTR), Applovin (APP), Robinhood (HOOD), and Coinbase (COIN) into the “PARC” basket, three of the four stocks have either fallen or gone nowhere.

At the time, many in the industry felt that cross-stitching the four into one word meant that Cramer was feeling bullish about crypto, but now, the most industry-linked stock of the lot has suffered the largest drop.

PARC Report Card Leaves Coinbase as the Biggest Loser

Cramer named PARC on July 14, 2025, grouping Palantir, Applovin, Robinhood, and Coinbase together as the stocks retail investors had, in his words, “anointed and taken up without any real bounds.” He framed the market at the time as split into two: the S&P 500 and the PARC four, which were running on pure momentum.

However, in a June 29, 2026 post on X, market commentator Heisenberg posted updated performance figures showing that since Cramer introduced the acronym, Coinbase had performed the worst after dipping by 62%.

Additional data from Yahoo Finance shows that across 52 weeks, the stock has traded between $139 and $444, and is currently sitting near the bottom of that range at around $149, a long way from where conviction was running when Cramer put it in the basket. Interestingly, Donald Trump’s financial disclosure filed in May showed the president bought COIN between January and March of this year, although those transactions are handled by third-party financial institutions.

Meanwhile, Palantir is down roughly 25% since the acronym was coined and about 40% in 2026 alone. Its 52-week high was around $207, and at the time of writing it was trading near $113.

On its part, Robinhood is essentially flat, which might count as a mild win in this context given how the other two have moved. Early this month, the company entered the Canadian crypto space after completing a $180 million acquisition of WonderFi and now counts well over 1 million international funded customers, although that has not done much for the stock price.

Applovin is the only one that has genuinely performed and is up 34% since PARC was named. However, its current price of around $477 is still well below its one-year high of $745, but compared to the rest of the group, it is the clear outlier.

From PARC to CRAP

Back in 2025, Cramer had a choice of two meme acronyms: PARC, which he eventually settled for, and CARP (Coinbase, Applovin, Robinhood, Palantir).

However, some cheeky community members came up with a third one: CRAP, and one year later, it looks to have held better than the basket itself, a point that was revisited by analyst Shanaka Anslem Perera when commenting on the development in a post on X:

“The acronym arrived at the precise moment conviction in these names ran hottest, and the year that followed turned a throwaway joke into a price chart,” he wrote. “CRAP was never an insult. It was the forecast, written a year early.”

The post Coinbase (COIN) Down 62% One Year After Jim Cramer’s PARC Basket appeared first on CryptoPotato.

Large XRP transfers are becoming more prominent across centralized exchanges overall, while their activity on Binance has declined. Data from the 7-day moving average of the XRP Whale vs Retail Spread across all centralized exchanges rose from 26% on May 6 to 50.9% on June 29. This is an increase of 24.9 percentage points.

According to CryptoQuant, the latest trend indicates that transfers involving more than 100,000 XRP are making up a much larger share of exchange outflows compared to smaller retail-sized transactions than they did in early May.

Whale Presence Outside Binance

The same cannot be said for Binance. CryptoQuant found that the exchange’s Whale vs Retail Spread dropped from 62% on June 11 to 44.6% on June 29, a decline of 17.4 percentage points. As a result, Binance’s reading now stands 6.3 percentage points below the broader centralized exchange average of 50.9%.

The Whale vs Retail Spread measures the difference between XRP outflow volumes generated by transfers above 100,000 XRP and those involving 100,000 XRP or less. Higher readings indicate that whale-sized transactions account for a larger share of exchange outflows than retail transfers.

The analysis revealed that the growing gap between Binance and the wider exchange market essentially suggests that large XRP transfers are becoming less concentrated on Binance and increasingly distributed across other trading platforms.

Price Struggles

XRP spent most of June under pressure after falling from above $1.30 at the start of the month to around $1.05 at the time of writing. Although the crypto asset saw a brief rebound in mid-June, the recovery quickly faded as sellers regained control and pushed prices lower again.

It even slipped behind BNB and USDC in market capitalization. With XRP currently testing the crucial $1.06 support previously identified by Ali Martinez, the asset is now exposed to lower support areas at $0.80, $0.62, and $0.51.

Meanwhile, Glassnode reported that XRP investors are realizing more losses than profits. Despite the weakness, some analysts remain optimistic. EGRAG CRYPTO, for one, believes that if XRP follows historical price patterns linked to its “Central Line,” the asset could eventually reach between $5.70 and $8, based on gains seen during previous market cycles.

The post XRP Whales Are Moving On, and Binance Is No Longer Their Top Choice appeared first on CryptoPotato.

The Canadian musician Aubrey Drake Graham, better known as Drake, placed a sizeable crypto wager on a World Cup match.

Unlike many previous occasions, though, this time he cashed out a substantial profit.

Finally a Win

Yesterday (June 28), Canada (one of the countries hosting the FIFA World Cup 2026) played South Africa in a crucial match that determined the first team to advance to the round of 16. Top-tier games like this tend to draw swarms of gamblers hoping to predict the winner and score a quick profit.

Drake also tried his luck, betting $770,000 worth of USDT on his homeland, Canada, to eliminate its opponent. “The Reds” defeated “Bafana Bafana” after scoring 1-0 at the very end of the game. The odds for Canada to go through were 1.30, meaning Drake made a profit of around $230,000 in USDT.

Seeing the musician’s bet go his way is almost surprising, as the football teams he supports usually end up defeated. In 2022, he wagered over $600,000 worth of BTC on FC Barcelona to beat its biggest rival, Real Madrid. However, the Catalan team lost “El Clásico,” and Drake ultimately parted with his stake.

In 2024, Drake bet $300,000 in BTC that Canada would beat Argentina in the Copa América semi-final. The odds for the North American country were 9.60 since it was the massive underdog, meaning a potential win would have brought the rapper a profit of more than $2.5 million in the leading cryptocurrency.

Nonetheless, Argentina (the reigning world champion) delivered the predictable outcome, cruising to a 2-0 victory, with captain Lionel Messi sealing the match with the second goal.

Drake also tried his luck at this year’s Champions League final, which featured Arsenal and Paris Saint-Germain. He placed a $1 million bet on the British team only to watch them lose 4-3 in a penalty shootout.

The Drake Curse

These unfortunate events have prompted the creation of the phrase “the Drake curse,” which refers to a superstition that whichever team or athlete he publicly supports tends to perform poorly.

His losing bets spread far beyond football matches. In 2024, Drake lost $700,000 worth of BTC on a UFC fight, while earlier this year he parted with $1 million in the cryptocurrency after the New England Patriots lost the Super Bowl to the Seattle Seahawks.

The post Drake Breaks the Curse With a Crypto Win on a World Cup Bet: Details appeared first on CryptoPotato.

The cryptocurrency sector may be stuck in a prolonged bear market, yet some tokens still manage to outperform with significant upward moves.

Velvet (VELVET) is a standout example, having jumped by quadruple digits in the past month. And while some analysts expect more short-term upside, others warn the altcoin could be a ticking time bomb.

Further Rally?

As of press time, the altcoin trades at around $1.58 (according to CG), representing a 250% increase on a weekly scale and a staggering 1,700% pump over the last 30 days.

Its market capitalization has risen to nearly $700 million, making VELVET the 90th-biggest cryptocurrency. One potential catalyst for the price explosion could be the project’s collaboration with AerodromeeFi.

“With the integration, you now:

– Get tighter pricing
– Pay less slippage
– Tap deeper liquidity on every trade
– Land better fills, automatically,” the announcement reads.

Later on, the project introduced Velvet-1: an Artificial Intelligence (AI) model for on-chain intelligence, which could also have positively impacted the price.

Several analysts have highlighted the coin’s performance and believe it might have more fuel for additional gains. X user Crypto With Gopal claimed that the price “is tightening inside a Symmetrical Triangle after a sharp bullish impulse.” He argued that sellers continue to lose control, setting a short-term target of $2.1.

The Boss also issued an optimistic prediction, arguing that the latest breakout attempt shows that buyers remain active after consolidation rather than immediately giving back gains. The analyst claimed that the current structure looks “healthier than it did 24 hours ago, with the chart transitioning from recovery mode into expansion mode.”

“If momentum persists and volume follows through, the market could begin testing higher liquidity zones that were previously rejected during the first impulsive move earlier this month,” they concluded.

‘Generational Short Opportunity?’

Many other analysts believe investors should stay away from the altcoin as it may experience a steep decline in the near future. Yesterday (June 28), X user Crypto with Haris ₿ predicted that VELVET could crash to $0.90 in the next six hours (which didn’t happen), calling the setup a “generational short opportunity.”

For his part, Vuori Trading claimed that the token is another “Binance Alpha aka. CZ scam.” In his view, the token seems to be nearing its top, but if it crosses $2, it might explode to $8.

The coin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) reinforces the bearish outlook. The ratio has risen past 80, meaning VELVET has entered extreme overbought territory and could be on the verge of a collapse. The technical analysis tool ranges from 0 to 100, with anything below 30 considered a buying opportunity.

The post Viral Altcoin VELVET Explodes 1,700% in a Month: More Gains Ahead or Perfect Short Setup? appeared first on CryptoPotato.

The Bank of New York Mellon (BNY), the oldest bank in the United States, has expanded its partnership with Circle to introduce new stablecoin services for institutional clients.

Circle’s USDC will become the first stablecoin supported on BNY’s Digital Asset Custody platform under the arrangement. This will allow BNY clients to store, transfer, mint, and burn USDC through the bank’s custody services.

BNY Mellon integrates USDC

According to the official blog post, the latest move broadens BNY’s role as the primary custodian of USDC reserves. Institutional clients using BNY’s digital asset custody platform can now hold USDC in their custody wallets and use the bank to instruct Circle to convert US dollars into USDC.

Clients will also be able to redeem USDC for US dollars through the burning process. Circle said that these services are intended to support the entire lifecycle of institutional stablecoin activity by connecting traditional cash services with digital asset custody within one framework. BNY said the stablecoin capabilities are part of its integrated Digital Assets platform, which is designed to help institutional clients manage the growing connection between traditional finance and digital assets.

By combining custody and cash management services, the bank aims to provide access to blockchain-based networks while maintaining the controls, governance, and operational resilience required by institutional markets. BNY also plans to expand support to other stablecoin issuers and additional digital cash workflows over time.

BNY’s Chief Product and Innovation Officer Carolyn Weinberg commented,

“As digital assets become increasingly integrated into financial markets, institutions need infrastructure that seamlessly works across traditional and blockchain-based systems. With the addition of our enhanced stablecoin enablement capabilities, we’re expanding the ways clients can move value with the operational scale, trust, and resiliency they expect from BNY.”

BNY’s Crypto Footprint

BNY Mellon and Circle first partnered in March 2022, when the bank was selected as a primary custodian for the reserves backing the stablecoin. Since then, the bank has steadily strengthened its presence in digital assets over the past few years.

This year, the Wall Street giant expanded its digital asset custody business by partnering with Finstreet and ADI Foundation to develop regulated crypto infrastructure within Abu Dhabi’s ADGM financial hub.

The post Circle’s USDC Becomes First Stablecoin Supported by BNY Mellon for Institutional Clients appeared first on CryptoPotato.