ABTC's growth highlights increasing corporate interest in Bitcoin, potentially influencing broader market adoption and regulatory scrutiny.

The post Trump-backed American Bitcoin tops 7,000 BTC, sats per share double appeared first on Crypto Briefing.

Strategy's pause in Bitcoin accumulation may signal market caution, impacting investor sentiment and future corporate cryptocurrency strategies.

The post Strategy pauses Bitcoin accumulation after 13-week buying streak ahead of quarter-end appeared first on Crypto Briefing.

Midas' Series A funding and mTokens' growth highlight a shift towards more transparent, flexible, and accessible onchain investment solutions.

The post Midas secures $50M Series A as mTokens surpass $1.7B in assets minted appeared first on Crypto Briefing.

The Ethereum Foundation's staking strategy may stabilize ETH prices and attract more institutional interest, enhancing blockchain ecosystem growth.

The post Ethereum Foundation stakes over 22,500 ETH in largest single deployment appeared first on Crypto Briefing.

BNP Paribas' crypto ETNs could significantly boost retail investor access to digital assets, potentially reshaping France's financial landscape.

The post France’s largest bank to debut Bitcoin, Ether ETNs for French retail clients tomorrow appeared first on Crypto Briefing.

Bitcoin Magazine

Morgan Stanley Set to Undercut Bitcoin ETF Rivals With 0.14% Fee Ahead of Launch

Morgan Stanley is poised to shake up the spot bitcoin ETF market with a sharply lower fee structure, as new filing details show its upcoming Morgan Stanley Bitcoin Trust (MSBT) will charge just 0.14% annually — undercutting every existing U.S. competitor.

The fee, disclosed in updated trust documents shared by Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas, comes in 11 basis points below BlackRock’s flagship iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), which currently charges around 0.25%. 

The aggressive pricing positions MSBT as the cheapest spot bitcoin ETF on the market at launch, signaling a deliberate push to capture both internal advisory flows and external investor capital.

The move carries particular weight within Morgan Stanley’s own ecosystem. With roughly $8 trillion in wealth management assets and a network of thousands of financial advisors, fee sensitivity has been one of the barriers to broader ETF adoption across advisory channels. 

A lower-cost in-house product could remove that friction, allowing advisors to allocate to bitcoin without facing conflicts tied to recommending higher-fee third-party funds.

Industry observers say that dynamic could materially shift flows.

Phong Le, CEO of Strategy, recently described the product as a potential “Monster Bitcoin” catalyst, estimating that even a modest 2% allocation across Morgan Stanley’s platform could translate into roughly $160 billion in demand. 

That figure would far exceed the size of any existing spot bitcoin ETF and underscores the importance of distribution, not just product design.

Morgan Stanley’s bitcoin ETF is coming

The fee disclosure arrives as MSBT moves closer to launch. The fund has already received a listing notice from the New York Stock Exchange, a step widely viewed as signaling that trading could begin imminently pending final regulatory clearance. If approved, the product would become the first spot bitcoin ETF issued directly by a major U.S. bank rather than an asset manager.

Structurally, MSBT mirrors existing spot bitcoin ETFs. The trust will hold bitcoin directly, with Coinbase serving as custodian and prime broker, while BNY Mellon will handle administration, transfer agency, and cash custody.

Since their debut in 2024, U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs have easily attracted more than $50 billion in inflows, driven largely by retail and self-directed investors. Adoption within wealth management platforms has been slower, often constrained by internal policies, fee considerations, and portfolio construction guidelines.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading near $66,000.

This post Morgan Stanley Set to Undercut Bitcoin ETF Rivals With 0.14% Fee Ahead of Launch first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Micah Zimmerman.

Bitcoin Magazine

Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index Hits Extreme Fear at 13 Out of 100

As of March 27, 2026, the Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index reads 13, placing sentiment in Extreme Fear. The current price of bitcoin is near $66,000.

The index spans 0 to 100, with lower readings tied to fear-driven market conditions and higher readings tied to greed-driven conditions.

The metric compiles inputs across price volatility, market momentum, trading volume, Bitcoin dominance, social sentiment, and Google Trends activity. The combined dataset forms a sentiment gauge used to track emotional conditions across Bitcoin markets.

Readings in the Extreme Fear range have aligned with prior stress phases in BTC market cycles.

Bitcoin Magazine Pro data highlights these zones as periods marked by liquidity contraction, elevated volatility, and forced positioning in derivatives markets.

In prior reporting, deep fear readings have coincided with accumulation behavior among long-term holders, alongside reduced speculative activity across spot and derivatives venues.

Earlier market drawdowns examined in Bitcoin Magazine Pro research show similar sentiment conditions during deleveraging events, where sharp price declines matched rapid sentiment compression.

In those phases, volatility expansion and liquidity withdrawal appeared alongside increased Bitcoin dominance as risk appetite shifted away from altcoin exposure.

Bitcoin uncertainty

Earlier today, Bitcoin price fell to its lowest level in more than two weeks, dropping below roughly $66,000 as liquidations exceeded $300 million in long positions over the previous 24 hours.

Short liquidations were far lower, showing that leveraged bullish traders were primarily forced out of the market. The move followed a broader shift in global risk sentiment as equities weakened and macroeconomic pressure increased.

The decline in BTC coincided with a risk-off environment across traditional markets. Nasdaq 100 futures had fallen about 10% from prior highs, while oil prices rose toward $100 per barrel amid escalating geopolitical tensions involving Iran.

Military activity and missile exchanges between the two countries continued despite diplomatic efforts, and the United States delayed direct escalation while negotiations remained open.

Regional instability contributed to concerns over energy supply routes, including disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.

BTC had briefly approached higher levels earlier in the week on hopes of diplomatic progress, but those gains reversed as uncertainty returned. Price action remained within a broader range between $60,000 and $75,000 that had persisted for several weeks, following a prior peak above $120,000 in late 2025.

Institutional flows showed mixed signals. Spot BTC exchange-traded funds recorded billions in inflows earlier in March, but more recent sessions saw outflows.

On-chain data showed continued withdrawals from exchanges, suggesting long-term holders moved assets into self-custody. Options markets showed about $14 billion in expirations, which influenced price stability near key strike levels around $75,000.

Editorial Disclaimer: We leverage AI as part of our editorial workflow, including to support research, image generation, and quality assurance processes. All content is directed, reviewed, and approved by our editorial team, who are accountable for accuracy and integrity. AI-generated images use only tools trained on properly license material. In Bitcoin, as in media: Don’t trust. Verify.

This post Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index Hits Extreme Fear at 13 Out of 100 first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Micah Zimmerman.

Bitcoin Magazine

ICE Announces $600 Million Strategic Investment in Polymarket

Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. Intercontinental Exchange, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, has completed a $600 million direct cash investment in prediction market platform Polymarket as part of a broader equity fundraising round, according to a company announcement.

The new investment follows ICE’s previously disclosed $1 billion commitment made in October 2025. With the latest infusion, ICE says it has now fulfilled its obligations under the investment agreement, which also includes plans to purchase up to $40 million in additional Polymarket securities from existing holders.

Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market platform that allows users to trade on the outcomes of real-world events, has drawn increasing attention from institutional investors amid growing interest in event-driven data markets and decentralized financial infrastructure.

Polymarket has support for bitcoin deposits, giving users a direct way to fund their accounts with BTC alongside other existing crypto options. 

ICE stated that the investment is not expected to materially impact its financial results or capital return plans. Final valuation details of the latest transaction are expected to be disclosed once the fundraising round is fully completed.

The move further signals traditional financial market infrastructure firms expanding into alternative data and crypto-adjacent platforms. ICE, which operates major exchanges including the NYSE, continues to diversify into digital markets, data services, and fintech infrastructure.

Polymarket has become one of the most prominent prediction market platforms globally, leveraging blockchain rails to facilitate trading on political, economic, and cultural outcomes.

The companies emphasized that the announcement does not constitute an offer to sell or solicit securities. Market observers say the scale of ICE’s investment underscores rising institutional interest in prediction markets as both a trading venue and a data source.

Polymarket’s embrace by TradFi

In the past year, the relationship between the crypto-native prediction market and traditional financial powerhouse Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) has become one of the most closely watched intersections of decentralized markets and institutional capital. 

Polymarket, launched in 2020 by founder Shayne Coplan, has grown into one of the largest blockchain-based prediction platforms, where users trade shares on the outcomes of future events — from elections to economic indicators and geopolitical developments — using cryptocurrency rails.

In late 2025, Polymarket re-entered the U.S. market under full Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) regulation after previously being blocked amid enforcement actions, marking a significant shift from its earlier status as an offshore, lightly regulated venue.

In December 2025, Polymarket launched its U.S.-focused app after the CFTC approval, restoring American access to its prediction markets and initially offering sports betting with plans to expand into other categories like propositions and elections.

Editorial Disclaimer: We leverage AI as part of our editorial workflow, including to support research, image generation, and quality assurance processes. All content is directed, reviewed, and approved by our editorial team, who are accountable for accuracy and integrity. AI-generated images use only tools trained on properly license material. In Bitcoin, as in media: Don’t trust. Verify.

This post ICE Announces $600 Million Strategic Investment in Polymarket first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Micah Zimmerman.

Bitcoin Magazine

Bitcoin Price Slides to Two-Week Low as Liquidations Top $300 Million and Macro Pressure Builds

Bitcoin price fell below $66,500 on Friday, hitting its lowest level in more than two weeks as a wave of long liquidations and mounting macroeconomic stress weighed on the crypto market..

Data shows nearly $300 million in long positions were liquidated over the past 24 hours, according to Bitcoin Magazine Pro data, compared with roughly $50 million in short liquidations, pointing to an unwind of crowded bullish positioning in crypto futures. The imbalance reflects a market that had leaned heavily long and is now adjusting as sentiment shifts.

The bitcoin price selloff coincided with a broader risk-off move across global markets. Nasdaq 100 futures have fallen about 10% from their January highs, while oil prices climbed near $100 per barrel amid escalating geopolitical tensions tied to the ongoing conflict involving Iran. 

Earlier today, Israel said it will escalate strikes on Iran after renewed waves of Iranian missile attacks, while both sides continue exchanging fire despite ongoing diplomatic efforts. 

President Trump has paused U.S. strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure for 10 more days to allow negotiations, even as reports suggest the Pentagon is considering deploying up to 10,000 additional troops to the Middle East.

Meanwhile, the conflict is widening regionally, with shipping disruptions reported in the Strait of Hormuz, Gulf states on alert after strikes, and Iranian casualties reportedly nearing 2,000 as international talks continue in Europe.

The surge in crude has renewed inflation concerns and pressured risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin price dynamics

Bitcoin price briefly approached $71,500 this week on optimism tied to a potential diplomatic breakthrough in the Middle East. Those gains reversed as uncertainty around negotiations resurfaced, pushing prices lower and reinforcing sensitive market conditions.

Despite the recent decline, bitcoin price continues to trade within a defined range between $60,000 and $75,000 that has held for several weeks, even months. The asset remains well below its October 2025 peak above $126,000 following a broader market correction.

Institutional flows present a mixed picture. U.S.-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded sustained inflows earlier in March, totaling about $2.5 billion over five weeks. That momentum has slowed in recent sessions, with net outflows emerging and signaling a pause in accumulation as investors respond to macro uncertainty.

At the same time, on-chain data indicates continued withdrawals of bitcoin from centralized exchanges over the past month. This trend suggests longer-term holders are moving assets into self-custody, a pattern often associated with accumulation rather than distribution.

Despite this, Morgan Stanley is a step closer to launching its spot Bitcoin ETF, MSBT, after the New York Stock Exchange posted a listing notice — signaling an imminent debut that could make it the first such product from a major U.S. bank, alongside offerings from BlackRock and Fidelity.

Options markets add another layer of complexity. Roughly $14 billion in bitcoin price options are set to expire, representing a significant share of open interest. 

Hedging activity tied to these contracts has contributed to subdued volatility, with price action gravitating toward key strike levels near $75,000.

As these contracts roll off, the stabilizing effect from derivatives positioning may fade, leaving bitcoin more exposed to external catalysts. 

With geopolitical risks elevated and macro conditions tightening, the market faces a period where price movements may become more reactive and less constrained by structural flows.

This post Bitcoin Price Slides to Two-Week Low as Liquidations Top $300 Million and Macro Pressure Builds first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Micah Zimmerman.

Bitcoin Magazine

Simon Gerovich Confirmed As A Bitcoin 2026 Speaker

Simon Gerovich has been officially confirmed as a speaker at Bitcoin 2026. As Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of Tokyo Stock Exchange-listed Metaplanet, he has helped transform the once struggling hospitality company into one of the largest corporate Bitcoin holders in the world. Now, Gerovich arrives in Las Vegas as one of the most closely watched figures in institutional Bitcoin adoption outside of the United States.

Metaplanet closed 2025 with 35,102 BTC, making it the fourth-largest public corporate Bitcoin holder globally. The company has outlined aggressive accumulation targets, aiming to reach 100,000 BTC by the end of 2026 and 210,000 BTC — approximately 1% of Bitcoin’s total supply — by the end of 2027. To fund that ambition, Metaplanet recently secured approximately $255 million from global institutional investors through a placement of new shares, with additional fixed-strike warrants that could lift total funding to roughly $531 million. The company is also expanding beyond treasury accumulation: Metaplanet’s board approved the creation of two subsidiaries — Metaplanet Ventures and Metaplanet Asset Management — targeting companies building Bitcoin financial infrastructure in Japan, including platforms focused on lending, payments, custody, derivatives, and compliance tools.

Gerovich began the company’s EGM in September 2025 by explaining how Metaplanet pivoted from operating as a struggling hotel company to a Bitcoin treasury company in early 2024. The turnaround has been significant. Revenue jumped 738% year-over-year to 8.91 billion yen, with operating profit surging 1,695%, driven primarily by premiums from Bitcoin option transactions, which accounted for about 95% of total revenue. Gerovich has consistently pointed to Bitcoin per share — the company’s primary KPI — rather than net profit as the appropriate metric for evaluating Metaplanet’s performance, noting that Bitcoin per share increased by more than 500% in 2025.

With Metaplanet’s accumulation targets for 2026 still in motion and its expansion into ventures and asset management underway, Gerovich takes the Bitcoin 2026 stage at a pivotal moment for the company and for corporate Bitcoin adoption in Asia.

Bitcoin 2026 is Returning to Las Vegas

Bitcoin 2026 will take place April 27–29 at The Venetian, Las Vegas, and is expected to be the biggest Bitcoin event of the year.

Focused on the future of money, Bitcoin 2026 will bring together Bitcoin builders, investors, miners, policymakers, technologists, and newcomers from around the world. The event will feature a wide range of pass types, including general admission passes designed specifically for those new to Bitcoin, alongside premium passes for professionals, enterprises, and institutions.

With multiple stages, immersive experiences, technical workshops, and headline keynotes, Bitcoin 2026 is designed to serve both first-time attendees and long-time Bitcoiners shaping the next era of global adoption.

Past Bitcoin Conferences in the U.S.

Bitcoin’s flagship conference has scaled dramatically over the past five years:

• 2021 – Miami: 11,000 attendees
• 2022 – Miami: 26,000 attendees
• 2023 – Miami: 15,000 attendees
• 2024 – Nashville: 22,000 attendees
• 2025 – Las Vegas: 35,000 attendees

Get Your Bitcoin 2026 Pass

Bitcoin Magazine readers can save 10% on Bitcoin 2026 tickets using code ‘ARTICLE10‘ at checkout.

Stay at The official hotel of Bitcoin 2026, The Venetian, and get a guaranteed low rate plus 15% off your pass. Be in the middle of where the fun is all happening, and where the networking never ends.

And don’t forget:

Volunteer at Bitcoin 2026 and get Pro Pass access plus exclusive perks.

All students ages 13+ can apply for a Student Pass and get free general admission access to Bitcoin 2026.

Location: The Venetian, Las Vegas
Dates: April 27–29, 2026

For more information and exclusive offers, visit the Bitcoin Conference on X here.

Why Attend Bitcoin 2026?

Bitcoin 2026 is the definitive gathering for anyone serious about the future of money. With 500+ speakers, multiple world-class stages, and programming spanning Bitcoin fundamentals, open-source development, enterprise adoption, mining, energy, AI, policy, and culture, the conference brings every corner of the Bitcoin ecosystem together under one roof.

From headline keynotes on the Nakamoto Stage to deep technical sessions for builders, institutional strategy discussions for enterprises, and beginner-friendly Bitcoin 101 education, Bitcoin 2026 is designed for everyone—from first-time attendees to the leaders shaping Bitcoin’s global adoption.

Whether you’re looking to learn, build, invest, network, or influence, Bitcoin 2026 is where Bitcoin’s next chapter is written.

Bitcoin 2026 Pass Types: Something for Everyone

Bitcoin 2026 offers a range of pass options designed to meet the needs of newcomers, professionals, enterprises, and high-net-worth Bitcoiners alike.

Bitcoin 2026 General Admission Pass

Ideal for newcomers and those looking to experience the heart of the conference.

• Limited access on Days 2 & 3
• Entry to Main Stage
• Access to Genesis Stage
• Full access to the Expo Hall

Bitcoin 2026 Pro Pass

Designed for professionals, operators, and serious Bitcoin participants.

Includes all General Admission features, plus:

• Full 3-day access, including Pro Day
• Entry to the Pro Pass Reception
• Access to Enterprise Hall, Enterprise Stage, and Networking Lounge
• Conference App networking features
• Access to the Bitcoin For Corporations Symposium
• Entry to Compute Village and Energy Stage
• Complimentary lunch, coffee, tea, and snacks
• Dedicated registration and check-in
• Reserved seating at Main Stage
• Huge savings when you bundle your hotel and Pro Pass

Bitcoin 2026 Whale Pass

The all-inclusive, premium Bitcoin 2026 experience.

Includes all Pro Pass features, plus:

• Reserved seating at Main Stage
• All-inclusive gourmet food and beverages
• Entry to Whale Night and Whale Reception
• Access to all official after-parties
• Networking app access to connect with other Whales
• Premium access to The Deep — an exclusive networking lounge with intimate speaker sessions
• Complimentary stay at The Venetian when you bundle your whale pass and hotel (use promo code ‘WHALEHOTEL’ here)

This is the most immersive way to experience Bitcoin 2026.

Bitcoin 2026 After Hours Pass

Your ticket to the night.

Most deals are done with a drink in your hand. Get exclusive access to 3 official Bitcoin 2026 after-parties across Las Vegas — each with a 2-hour open bar — where the real conversations happen and the best connections are made.

• Access to 3 official Bitcoin 2026 after-parties
• 2-hour open bar at each event
• Evening events across Las Vegas, April 27–29
• Network with Bitcoiners, builders, and industry leaders after hours

More headline speaker announcements are coming soon.

Don’t miss Bitcoin 2026.

This post Simon Gerovich Confirmed As A Bitcoin 2026 Speaker first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Jenna Montgomery.

Bitcoin price is entering a pivotal week with several on-chain models pushing the market’s floor lower just as investors brace for fresh signals from the Federal Reserve and the US labor market.

The shift has sharpened a debate that is no longer centered only on how low the flagship digital asset could fall, but on how long the repair process may take, even if the worst of the selling is nearing exhaustion.

Alphractal data shows Bitcoin’s short-term holder realized price bands have dropped sharply in recent weeks, pulling down a level that traders watch for signs of capitulation.

Joao Wedson, the firm’s chief executive, said past cycles often completed a capitulation event when Bitcoin approached the lower blue band, creating a strong local buying opportunity. With that band now lower, the model points to a possible bottom near $50,000 or slightly below.

Meanwhile, other widely followed on-chain signals are clustering in a similar range. Willy Woo has said Bitcoin could bottom between $46,000 and $54,000, while the CVDD floor sits near $45,500 and continues to rise gradually.

Together, those measures suggest the zone where deep-value buyers may begin to step in has shifted lower amid intensifying volatility and uncertainty.

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Bitcoin price is heading for weekend collapse to $61k – will a social media post from Trump save it?

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Mar 27, 2026 · Liam 'Akiba' Wright

Support is forming, but stress is still building

Glassnode’s cost-basis data points to a market still trying to build support higher up.

According to the firm, Bitcoin is trading near the lower end of the $60,000 to $70,000 range, where newer buyers accumulated supply, but the size of that cluster remains thinner than the bases that formed before stronger recoveries in earlier cycles.

However, the pressure under the surface has become harder to ignore as BTC continues to struggle.

CEX.io’s Bitcoin Impact Index shows that more than 30% of Bitcoin held by long-term holders is now in the red, the highest share since 2023.

The firm said more than 4.6 million Bitcoin owned by long-term holders are underwater, while 47% of all Bitcoin in existence is now at a loss, matching the levels seen during the most stressed weeks of February.

That deterioration is notable because long-term holders had only recently returned to selling at a profit.

By the end of the latest week, SOPR had fallen to 0.724, erasing six weeks of improvement and leaving long-term holders selling at their deepest losses in three years. Short-term holders were also under pressure, with realized profit and loss sliding to its lowest level since late January.

The pattern resembles earlier breakdown phases. CEX.io compared the current setup with mid-2018 and mid-2022, when a similar divergence emerged between price action and on-chain conviction before Bitcoin suffered another leg lower.

The firm said the latest jump in its stress index was the sharpest since late January, when Bitcoin went on to record one of its most difficult stretches of 2026.

Notably, market liquidity has weakened at the same time. Stablecoin net flows to exchanges swung from a strongly positive daily average to a deeply negative reading, removing one of the market’s key supports.

Data from SosoValue showed that spot Bitcoin ETFs posted $296 million in net outflows in the week through March 28 after four straight weeks of inflows, while spot Ethereum ETFs lost $206.58 million.

With institutional flows pulling back, the burden of support shifts back to spot buyers, long-term holders, and short covering.

Mining economics are adding another layer of pressure. Between 15% and 20% of miners are now unprofitable after the hashprice rate fell to a post-halving low of around $28 per petahash per second per day in February.

Their elevated energy costs have increased the risk of treasury selling, while Bhutan’s steady Bitcoin sales have reinforced the broader sense of supply overhang in the market.

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BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF boom still falls short of what it needs to make serious money

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Mar 25, 2026 · Oluwapelumi Adejumo

History points to a longer recovery

Meanwhile, the case for caution is not limited to price targets. Ecoinometrics, a BTC analysis platform, said any sharp recoveries in Bitcoin rarely happen in isolation and usually require a broader change in the macro backdrop, often including a shift in monetary policy.

That backdrop has not yet turned supportive enough to justify expectations of a fast rebound.

The firm’s drawdown analysis helps explain why. Looking across Bitcoin cycles since 2014, Ecoinometrics found a consistent relationship between the depth of a selloff and the time it takes for the market to fully heal.

For every additional 10% points of drawdown depth, the total duration has tended to extend by roughly 80 days. On that basis, the current decline implies a recovery period of roughly 300 days, with the market only about halfway through.

That does not rule out rallies. Bitcoin can rebound, consolidate, and retrace several times before a full recovery takes shape.

But the historical pattern argues against a straight-line return to prior highs. Even if the market is moving toward a credible floor zone, the path out of that zone may be slower and more uneven than bullish traders would like.

This is where the lower bottom models and the slower-repair thesis begin to intersect. A token can be close to a washout range without being ready for a sustained new uptrend.

For that to happen, price support needs to be matched by stronger demand, steadier institutional flows, and a macro backdrop that is no longer tightening financial conditions.

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Bitcoin price projected to bottom at $35,000 in December by model that timed the last two market tops

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Feb 28, 2026 · Liam 'Akiba' Wright

Macro calendar takes over

The recovery timeline, already measured in months rather than weeks by several analysts, now hinges on a dense run of US economic data beginning Monday with Fed Chair Jerome Powell's appearance at Harvard University.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to take part in a moderated discussion at Harvard University on March 30, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to release the March employment report on April 3.

Between those events, investors are also watching consumer-confidence data and labor-market readings for signs of whether inflation pressure from higher energy costs is beginning to collide with softer growth.

Here, the market would be trying to judge whether policymakers are facing a temporary shock or a combination that keeps rates restrictive for longer.

Bitcoin’s link to that debate has become more direct. The flagship digital asset is trading near the lower end of the newer buyers’ cost-basis range while oil, yields, and labor-market expectations continue to drive cross-asset risk appetite.

A softer labor print combined with easing energy stress could help stabilize financial conditions and give Bitcoin room to hold support. However, a stronger jobs number alongside sticky inflation expectations would point in the opposite direction, keeping macro pressure in place and leaving the market vulnerable to another leg lower.

For now, the Bitcoin market is caught between a market that is beginning to look statistically cheap and a macro environment that has yet to turn decisively supportive. The models pointing toward $45,000 to $54,000 do not guarantee that price will trade there.

Instead, they suggest that the market’s estimate of capitulation has moved lower, and that any durable recovery is likely to depend as much on the next turn in the macro cycle as on the next bid in crypto itself.

The post Bitcoin faces impending $45,000 sell-off catalyst as Powell, jobs report threaten fresh macro pressure appeared first on CryptoSlate.

Bitcoin’s Price Is Being Set Further Away From Bitcoin Holders

Bitcoin spent the end of March in a range that looked calm on the surface and unusually crowded underneath.

By Monday, Bitcoin's price was trading around $67,000 after a week that had already pulled in one of the year’s largest derivatives events and another round of institutional withdrawals from spot exchange-traded funds.

That combination deserves more attention than it has received. Conventional analysis would split the move into separate buckets. Options expiry belongs in one box, ETF flows in another, price in a third.

However, the reality is that Bitcoin’s short-term price formation is moving further away from the people who hold Bitcoin because they want Bitcoin, and closer to the people who hold Bitcoin exposure because they are hedging, rolling, allocating, or reducing risk inside a wrapper.

That shift changes how the market should be read. It also changes what a Bitcoin move actually represents.

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As Bitcoin weakens even ‘safe' investments like the 2-year Treasury are starting to crack

The safest corner of the bond market is starting to look uneasy as war drives oil higher, inflation fears creep back, and investors demand more to lend the US money for just two years.

Mar 29, 2026 · Andjela Radmilac

Price discovery has moved into the wrappers around Bitcoin

The first pressure point came from derivatives. Ahead of Friday’s expiry, CryptoSlate reported that about $14 billion in Bitcoin options were set to roll off on Deribit, equal to close to 40% of the exchange’s open interest.

The event was a collision between the year's largest quarterly expiry and a market already carrying geopolitical stress. However, the more important takeaway sits one layer below it.

When an expiry is large enough relative to open interest, the price can start reflecting the needs of dealers and other intermediaries who are managing exposure into settlement. Price becomes a balancing process.

That distinction sounds technical until it touches the way people interpret every move on the chart. Retail investors still tend to read Bitcoin through the lens of conviction. They assume a rise means more buyers want the asset, a dip means conviction is fading, and a flat range means the market is waiting for news.

In a market shaped by large listed products, listed options, and institutional balance-sheet decisions, those readings become less reliable. A quiet session can carry a large amount of mechanical activity. A sharp move can reflect a hedge adjustment before it reflects a directional view on Bitcoin itself.

That is why the $14 billion expiry deserves more than a volatility note. The expiry settled at 08:00 UTC on March 27, wiping out around 40% of open positions on Deribit.

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Mar 27, 2026 · Gino Matos

That scale raises a simple question for spot holders. If a meaningful share of short-term price is being influenced by the hedging and settlement behavior around listed contracts, how much of what people call Bitcoin demand is actually derivative maintenance?

That question becomes sharper once ETF flows are added back into the picture. Farside Investors’ spot Bitcoin ETF tracker has kept the running scorecard for U.S. products, and the broader pattern through 2026 has been one of recurring outflow pressure.

Billions of dollars are leaving the category this year. That flow pressure creates a second layer of distance between the Bitcoin price and the Bitcoin holder's intent.

An ETF share is Bitcoin exposure, although the trading decision behind it can belong to an allocator rotating among products, a risk manager shrinking gross exposure, or a portfolio rebalance that has very little to do with long-term views on the network, the asset’s monetary thesis, or self-custody.

Put those two channels together, and the market starts to look different.

The first channel is options, where expiry-related positioning can shape short-term movement as traders and dealers manage strike exposure, gamma, and settlement risk.

The second channel is ETFs, where the flows reflect portfolio construction decisions inside conventional finance as much as they reflect appetite for Bitcoin itself.

One channel leans on hedging machinery. The other leans on wrapper demand. Both sit one layer away from the old mental model of Bitcoin price being set mainly by direct buyers and sellers in the spot market.

That layer shift has practical consequences for people who hold a small amount of BTC, own an ETF in a brokerage account, or treat Bitcoin as a signal asset. Many think they are watching the asset's demand. Increasingly, they are also watching demand for the packaging around the asset.

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Mar 27, 2026 · Liam 'Akiba' Wright

Why calm price action can carry more market stress than it seems

That helps explain a pattern many people felt during the last few sessions without naming it precisely. Bitcoin around $67,000 can look stubborn. It can also look strangely muted given the amount of macro noise and flow pressure around it.

The intraday range stayed well inside the emotional expectations people usually carry into a quarter-end expiry of this size. That kind of restrained movement often attracts lazy language about indecision.

Large expiry events can compress movement as the market is pulled toward the areas with the densest derivative exposure, then release that compression after settlement when the hedge structure resets.

When open interest clusters around major strikes, the market can spend time gravitating around the levels that force the least pain or the least imbalance into settlement. That dynamic is shaped more by positioning than by belief.

Once that framework is in place, several familiar frustrations make more sense. Bitcoin can hold up while ETF money leaves. Bitcoin can fade after positive long-term adoption news. Bitcoin can seem numb to narratives that would once have sparked a larger move.

Those outcomes look contradictory when the market is judged as a direct referendum on Bitcoin conviction. They look entirely coherent when the market is viewed as a layered structure in which direct holders, ETF allocators, options traders, and dealers all sit in the same pool, each with different motives and time horizons.

The deeper implication is psychological. Casual Bitcoin observers still tend to assume that a move in the asset speaks with a single voice. That assumption was always imperfect. It is now much weaker.

The market has become more legible in one sense and less intuitive in another. More data exists, more regulated vehicles exist, and more institutional entry points exist.

At the same time, the causal chain between someone wanting Bitcoin and Bitcoin moving has become longer. There are more intermediaries in the path, more wrappers around exposure, and more reasons for capital to touch Bitcoin without sharing the worldview that built the asset’s early holder base.

Many still think of Bitcoin as the one large asset where ownership and conviction line up more closely than they do in traditional markets. That relationship has weakened.

A person who owns Bitcoin directly in self-custody and a fund that owns or sheds Bitcoin exposure through an ETF are part of the same price formation process, although they bring completely different behavior to that process. Add a large options market on top, and the day-to-day move becomes even more detached from the simple question of who believes in Bitcoin.

The next test sits beyond expiry and ETF withdrawals

That does not reduce Bitcoin’s relevance. It changes the map. Price discovery now has layers. The first layer is direct spot ownership and exchange activity. The second is ETF creations, redemptions, and secondary-market trading. The third is listed and offshore derivatives, especially around large expiries. The fourth is macro capital, which uses Bitcoin as one expression of a broader portfolio view.

Any session can be dominated by a single layer, or by the interaction among several layers at once.

The second half of this month has offered a clean example of that layered structure. Large expiry, visible ETF pressure, geopolitical stress, and a spot price holding around the mid-$60,000s created an unusual mix of noise and restraint.

That combination points to an uncomfortable conclusion for anyone who still frames every move through sentiment. Short-term Bitcoin pricing is increasingly being shaped by market plumbing.

Market plumbing is where much of real price formation occurs once an asset grows large enough to attract listed vehicles, listed options, and institutional balance-sheet management. Bitcoin has reached that stage. The change here is less about legitimacy and more about interpretation.

Retail can still move the market, and long-term holders still matter to the structural supply picture. Their influence now shares the field with a much larger set of actors whose objective is not accumulation, ideology, or even directional conviction. Their objective is execution.

Execution capital behaves differently. It buys because a portfolio model says to increase weight. It sells because a risk committee says to reduce exposure. It hedges because open interest sits too heavily around a strike. It rolls because the calendar demands a roll. It reacts to correlation and liquidity conditions before it reacts to the Bitcoin white paper.

That is a very different kind of price-setting constituency from the one many people still imagine when they open a Bitcoin chart.

The next test sits in the sessions after the expiry and in the persistence of ETF flow pressure. If Bitcoin begins to trade with more directional freedom once the largest quarterly options event is out of the way, that would reinforce the view that hedging machinery had been compressing movement into settlement.

If ETF withdrawals continue to shape the structure of demand, that would reinforce the second leg of the thesis: that the wrappers around Bitcoin are exerting more influence over price discovery than many holders have fully recognized.

For anyone with some capital exposed to markets, the key adjustment is conceptual before it is tactical.

A Bitcoin chart raises an immediate question: What do Bitcoin buyers and sellers think right now? That question still has value. It no longer goes far enough.

A more useful question now sits one layer deeper: Which part of the market is shaping price today, holders, allocators, or hedgers?

That is a different way to look at Bitcoin, and once seen, it becomes difficult to unsee.

The asset still carries its old monetary and cultural arguments. Its short-term price formation now carries a much more conventional market structure.

Bitcoin holders remain in the market. They simply no longer sit at the center of every move.

The post Latest data shows retail Bitcoin wallets can no longer control short-term BTC price moves appeared first on CryptoSlate.

Congress has introduced the Digital Asset PARITY Act, a bipartisan discussion draft introduced by Reps. Steven Horsford and Max Miller, who would rewrite Section 1091 to cover “specified assets.”

The category explicitly includes actively traded digital assets and their derivatives, and carves out a narrow class of regulated payment stablecoins from routine gain-or-loss recognition.

The draft lands harder on the crackdown side than on the relief side, and that asymmetry is what gives the proposal its sharpest edge.

For years, crypto traders have exploited a gap that stock investors cannot touch. Under current law, wash-sale rules apply to “stock or securities,” a definition that excludes digital assets.

A trader could sell Bitcoin at a loss, buy back in the next day, and still claim the tax deduction, a maneuver the IRS explicitly bars in equity markets.

The PARITY Act draft closes that gap by rewriting Section 1091 to cover actively traded digital assets, notional principal contracts tied to them, and related derivatives, including options, forward contracts, futures contracts, and short positions.

The familiar 30-day-before-and-after replacement window applies, and the wash-sale changes take effect upon enactment.

The stablecoin carveout

On the other side of the ledger, the draft says sellers recognize no gain or loss on the sale of a “Regulated Payment Stablecoin,” provided the transaction stays within a $0.99-$1.01 per-unit band.

When the exception applies, the taxpayer's basis in the stablecoin is deemed to be $1.00 per unit for calculating any residual gain or loss.

The carveout does not extend to brokers or dealers in securities or commodities, and related-party transactions carry explicit anti-abuse flags, though those guardrails sit under technical drafting review.

A stablecoin must be a payment stablecoin under the GENIUS framework, a permitted issuer must issue it, it must peg solely to the US dollar, it must trade within 1% of $1.00 on at least 95% of trading days in the preceding 12 months, and the taxpayer must acquire it within 1% of $1.00.

The stablecoin section takes effect for taxable years beginning after Dec. 31, 2025, and the draft's explanatory notes say that Congress is still working on whether to include a $200-per-transaction threshold and an aggregate annual limit in the final text.

That internal candor separates the stablecoin side from the wash-sale side, making the latter read like policy Congress has already decided.

The stablecoin carveout reflects the policy Congress wants, with Congress expecting Treasury to supply anti-abuse rules for coordinated arrangements but not yet embedding those guardrails in the black-letter text.

The policy design

Congress is using the tax code to distinguish between “crypto as payment” and “crypto as trading.”

The stablecoin market now sits at roughly $316 billion, with transaction volume exceeding $34 trillion last year, and a Wharton/WEF analysis found that roughly 99% of stablecoin activity still involves digital asset trading rather than payments.

Congress is offering tax relief to the use case it wants to encourage, and writing new costs into the one it wants to constrain.

The wash-sale rule does not apply where the taxpayer applies mark-to-market accounting to the specified asset, and the draft separately creates a mark-to-market election for dealers and traders in digital assets.

The political loser, more specifically, is the ordinary taxpayer using spot crypto for tax-loss harvesting.

Sophisticated trading businesses may access a cleaner elections framework than the current law provides.

The IRS finalized broker reporting rules for digital asset sales, requiring Form 1099-DA for transactions from Jan. 1, 2025, onward, with brokers furnishing taxpayer copies by Feb. 17, 2026.

Most 2025 statements will not include cost basis, leaving taxpayers to calculate it themselves. This means Congress is debating anti-abuse reform at the exact moment retail crypto holders are experiencing standardized reporting for the first time.

The policy direction also reflects a broader consensus that predates the draft. The 2025 White House digital assets report recommended extending wash-sale rules to digital assets, while explicitly stating that those rules should not apply to payment stablecoins.

The 2025 Joint Committee on Taxation report identified the current wash-sale gap and the absence of any de minimis rule for routine digital asset spending.

The PARITY Act is Congress trying to codify a split that tax policy had already mapped.

Where it lands

In an optimistic outcome, lawmakers finalize the stablecoin language cleanly, align it closely with GENIUS definitions, and pair the wash-sale crackdown with a clear $ 200-per-transaction threshold that makes small payments genuinely friction-free.

In that outcome, the tax code accelerates the adoption of on-chain regulated dollars. Visa data show that more than 99% of the stablecoin supply is dollar-denominated, and leading issuers earned more than $7 billion in reserve interest.

If the OCC's projected issuer base under GENIUS fills out, the carveout covers a material share of dollar stablecoin volume. Crypto gains a cleaner payment rail and a more level trading framework at the same time.

For the worst-case scenario, the wash-sale, short-sale, and derivative coverage survive with little dilution while the stablecoin section stalls in technical review, never reaching a final clean text before the legislative calendar tightens.

The mark-to-market election benefits professionals who can navigate an elections framework, and retail investors lose the loophole fastest, with no offsetting simplification on the payments side.

The broader crypto legislation had hit a new impasse, with banks and crypto firms still fighting over stablecoin economics.

The PARITY Act, as a discussion draft with multiple sections explicitly flagged for ongoing technical work, sits directly inside that gridlock. Taxpayers enter the 2026 filing season under new 1099-DA reporting obligations, with Congress pointing toward reform without yet enacting it.

Congress is more certain about closing the loophole than about the final contours of the stablecoin carveout.

The wash-sale rewrite is the harder edge of the draft, as it is concrete, broadly scoped, and ready to move. The stablecoin relief is the softer edge, presenting itself as directionally clear, mechanically unfinished, and dependent on a regulated-issuer framework that the OCC is still building out.

The version of the bill that actually reaches a vote will reveal which coalition Congress found less uncomfortable to disappoint.

The post Congress proposes removal of widely used Bitcoin tax loophole and giving it to regulated stablecoins appeared first on CryptoSlate.

Marco Rubio sat down with G7 foreign ministers and told them privately that the war with Iran could continue another two to four weeks, handing Washington's closest allies and the market a countdown.

Reports noted that Rubio publicly said the operation should conclude in “weeks, not months,” and the gap between those two framings captures the window long enough to sustain macro strain where Bitcoin now trades.

Bitcoin reached an intraday low of $65,571.07 on Mar. 27, down roughly 4.4% on the day. Meanwhile, Brent crude was at $111.52, up 53% since the war began on Feb. 27.

The Nasdaq had entered correction territory, the 10-year Treasury yield stood at 4.44%, and Fed futures reflected essentially zero probability of a rate cut this year. That combination explains Bitcoin's session losses with precision.

The transmission chain

Oil above $100 pushes freight costs into every supply chain simultaneously.

EIA data shows tanker rates for VLCCs from the Middle East to Asia hit their highest level since at least November 2005 in March. Stickier inflation expectations follow, as University of Michigan consumer sentiment fell to 53.3, and one-year inflation expectations jumped from 3.4% to 3.8%.

Fed Governor Lisa Cook said the war in Iran has shifted the balance of risks toward inflation, cementing a rate-cut freeze that is the direct channel into Bitcoin.

Bitcoin has come to trade like a high-beta liquidity instrument. The IMF has documented that its correlation with equities is higher than its correlations with gold, bonds, or major currencies.

A 2024 study in Finance Research Letters found that Bitcoin returns and volatility tend to respond to political uncertainty shocks, particularly during periods of financial stress. Bitcoin trades lower now because a longer war keeps the oil shock alive, which keeps liquidity tight.

Rubio's two-to-four-week private estimate turns a sequence of daily military headlines into a timeboxed repricing: traders now price the duration of the shock, treating each military headline as a data point in a longer repricing cycle.

Duration is the key

Traders are now pricing the war's duration, treating each military or diplomatic headline as a data point in a longer repricing cycle.

ICE recorded its highest-ever crude trading and open interest through March, indicating persistent repricing.

When President Donald Trump delayed strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure and hopes of de-escalation rose, global equity funds took in $37.77 billion in the week through Mar. 25. When Iran denied talks and hopes of a ceasefire faded, equities fell again.

The market toggles based on how the duration of the energy shock looks, and Rubio's private timeline pushed the dial toward durable.

A Reuters analyst poll put Brent at $100 to $190 under sustained disruption, with an average of $134.62. At the same time, EIA's March outlook projects Brent above $95 for the next two months. Bitcoin's near-term range is currently within this gap.

Flows through the Strait of Hormuz averaged roughly 20 million barrels per day in 2024, approximately 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption, with about 84% of that crude going to Asia.

The first-order macro hit lands in the region most central to industrial demand, emerging-market foreign exchange, and the technology supply chain.

Foreign investors pulled roughly $25.28 billion from Taiwan, $13.5 billion from South Korea, and $10.17 billion from India this month. Bitcoin sits inside the same global growth and technology complex that foreign outflows are actively repricing, and those moves reflect the same liquidity logic driving crypto lower.

EIA notes that only about 2.6 million barrels per day of Saudi and UAE pipeline bypass capacity is readily available.

Physical Hormuz navigation controls the macro calculus more than any diplomatic statement, which is why a ceasefire that leaves shipping impaired delivers limited relief.

War risk insurance alone keeps freight costs elevated enough to extend the inflation pass-through even if military operations pause.

The countdown

For the potential scenarios in the coming weeks, the best option involves diplomacy to close the gap within roughly seven to ten days.

Shipping normalization begins, Brent retreats toward $95-$110, and the “no cuts in 2026” narrative softens as inflation expectations ease. Goldman Sachs has argued that a clear end to military action would quickly erode the oil risk premium.

On that path, Bitcoin's exposure to the macro squeeze reverses rapidly. The relief puts Bitcoin in the $69,000-$75,000 range, supported by the EIA's easing post-disruption base case and by the speed at which equity funds re-entered when de-escalation hopes climbed in late March.

The same liquidity sensitivity that drove the selloff drives the recovery.

In the worst-case scenario, the war runs to the outer edge of Rubio's four-week window. Hormuz friction persists, war-risk insurance stays elevated, and no convincing ceasefire emerges.

Brent holds in the $110–$135 range, consistent with Goldman's March-April expectation and the Reuters average under sustained disruption. Inflation stays uncomfortable, the Fed stays sidelined, and Bitcoin trades in a $58,000-$66,000 range as risk assets stay capped by the same liquidity ceiling in place since Feb. 27.

The academic literature reinforces this framing over any reflexive safe-haven narrative.

A 2025 quantile analysis paper found that gold, the US dollar, and oil hedge geopolitical risk more consistently than cryptocurrencies across varying risk levels. Another 2025 study found that Bitcoin's defensive properties activate under geopolitically driven crash conditions, a threshold the current oil-and-yield squeeze has not yet reached.

In the bear case, the squeeze persists long enough to validate that conditional framing: Bitcoin's haven behavior is regime-dependent, and a sustained oil-inflation-yield environment is the least favorable regime for those properties to activate.

Two to four more weeks of war means at least one more inflation print, one more Fed meeting, and one more month of elevated freight and energy costs before the macro backdrop begins to clear.

For Bitcoin, that window represents the duration during which oil stays high and rate cuts stay off the table, the two conditions that drive the liquidity ceiling on risk assets.

The bull case closes that window early and reverses the compression, and the bear case holds it open long enough to validate the liquidity-asset framing that has governed Bitcoin's price action since February.

Markets are already pricing the countdown without considering the optimistic version.

The post Bitcoin drops as Rubio privately signals Iran war may last weeks, locking in high oil prices appeared first on CryptoSlate.

Even the safest corners of the market can start to look uneasy when oil jumps, war drags on, and investors begin to wonder whether inflation is heading back in the wrong direction.

That was the message we got from Tuesday’s sale of 2-year US Treasuries. These are short-term government bonds, and they're widely watched because they reflect what investors think could happen over the next couple of years, especially with Federal Reserve interest rates.

When demand for these short-duration Treasurys is strong, it tells us professional and institutional investors believe inflation will ease and policy will eventually soften.

So when the demand weakens, the signal shifts as well. Investors are asking for better compensation, and they're preparing for a bumpier stretch ahead.

Tuesday’s auction landed in that second category. The Treasury sold $69 billion of 2-year notes at a 3.936% high yield, and demand came in weaker than the previous month. The bid-to-cover ratio fell to 2.44 from 2.63 in February, while primary dealers ended up taking a much larger share of the sale.

These numbers tell us investors showed less appetite than usual for lending money to the US government for just two years at a 3.9% interest rate.

The weak sale arrived at a moment when the Middle East conflict had pushed oil higher, and hopes for quick Federal Reserve rate cuts were starting to fade. US business activity slowed to an 11-month low in March even as costs and selling prices accelerated, a combination that left investors staring at a pretty uncomfortable economic picture.

The 2-year Treasury is one of the market’s best readings on where investors think interest rates are headed in the near future. A weak auction signals that traders aren't convinced the Fed will be able to ease policy soon. It can also signal that inflation fear is starting to outrun the usual instinct to rush into government debt during a geopolitical shock.

Why this simple auction became a warning sign

For the better part of the last year, investors were hoping for a light at the end of the tunnel. Inflation seemed to be coming down, and growth was cooling in an orderly way, which would enable the Fed to eventually have room to cut rates. Short-term Treasury bonds would fit neatly into this recovering market, as they offered a profitable way to position for easier policy ahead.

But all of this fell apart with the recent oil shock. As the conflict in Iran threatens to turn into a full-blown war in the Middle East, oil prices skyrocketed, feeding into gasoline and broader business costs. This essentially annulled all of the softening we've seen in business activity, leaving markets wrestling with the prospect that the economy could slow down while inflation goes up. That combination would prevent the Fed from offering any kind of easy relief in the next year or so.

Once we start considering this as a real possibility, the meaning of a “safe” asset changes.
While the relative safety of an asset still counts in these circumstances, inflation counts more.

Investors begin asking whether holding a 2-year Treasury at a given yield really offers enough protection when energy prices are climbing, and the path to lower rates looks less certain. That's why this week’s weak demand drew so much attention: it showed the market wanted more returns before stepping in.

Fed rhetoric has added to that unease. Fed Governor Michael Barr said policymakers may need to hold rates steady for some time because inflation remains above target and the Middle East conflict has added upside risk through energy.

Comments like that help explain why the 2-year Treasurys are so important: they're the part of the Treasury market most tightly linked to the next chapter of Fed policy. When it starts to wobble, investors are usually reacting to what they think the central bank may or may not be able to do next.

What the signal says about the economy from here

This month's auction was a warning flare for the next few months.

Investors are starting to test whether any of the old assumptions still hold: Can inflation keep easing if oil stays elevated? Can the Fed cut rates if energy costs start raising prices even more?

The answers to these questions will affect everyone, not just Treasury buyers.

Higher short-term yields can keep financial conditions tight, pressure valuations in other markets, and raise the hurdle for risk-taking across stocks and speculative assets. They can also change borrowing conditions, because expectations for the Fed's future policy spill into all kinds of pricing decisions.

That's why a weak auction at the front end of the curve can end up telling a larger story about confidence, fear, and how investors see the next phase of the economy taking shape.

There's still room for this signal to cool. Ceasefire hopes helped oil prices pull back a bit, and that kind of move can ease some of the pressure on inflation expectations.

Nonetheless, the market is still arguing with itself, and the argument is alive in every fresh oil headline, every Fed remark, and every new read on prices and growth.

For now, the message from the auction is clear: investors are looking at the next two years and seeing a rougher road than they saw a month ago. They're seeing war, oil, inflation, slower activity, and a Federal Reserve that has less room to ride to the rescue than markets had hoped. And we saw a glimpse of a market starting to price in a more difficult world.

The post As Bitcoin weakens even ‘safe’ investments like the 2-year Treasury are starting to crack appeared first on CryptoSlate.

The question "Is XRP dead?" has resurfaced with a vengeance in early 2026. After a massive bull run that saw the asset peak at $3.65 in July 2025, the token has entered a grueling downtrend. As of March 30, 2026, XRP is trading at $1.34, representing a 37% decline from its price of $2.10 exactly one year ago.

Despite the conclusion of the Ripple vs. SEC lawsuit in August 2025 and the subsequent launch of several spot XRP ETFs, the price action remains decoupled from the "bullish" fundamental narrative. This article analyzes the structural, macro, and technical reasons behind this stagnation and what it would take for XRP to reclaim its former glory.

Why is XRP Down?

Investors are understandably frustrated. While Bitcoin and Solana saw significant institutional rotations in late 2025, XRP has surrendered 63% of its value since its cycle high. The primary drivers for the current slump include:

1. Macro Economic Pressure: The Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance in March 2026, projecting only one rate cut for the year, has sucked liquidity out of high-risk altcoins.
2. Geopolitical Instability: Recent conflicts in the Middle East have triggered a "risk-off" environment, favoring gold and oil over digital assets.
3. ETF "Sell the News": Much like the Bitcoin ETF launch in 2024, the debut of XRP ETFs in late 2025 led to a massive liquidity exit by early whales.

The "Dead Coin" vs. Utility Reality

In the crypto space, a "dead coin" typically refers to an asset with zero development, no liquidity, and no community. By this definition, XRP is far from dead. The XRP Ledger (XRPL) is currently processing over 1.5 million transactions daily. Ripple’s stablecoin, RLUSD, has reached a market cap of $1.4 billion, serving as a bridge for institutional cross-border payments. According to Investing.com, institutional interest remains high, with 25% of surveyed asset managers planning to add XRP to their portfolios by the end of 2026.

XRP Price Prediction: The Technical Breakdown

Technically, XRP is trapped in a classic bear flag pattern on the weekly charts. The price is currently testing a critical structural floor.

Key Price Levels to Watch:

The Role of the CLARITY Act

While technicals look bleak, the "recovery" catalyst likely lies in Washington. The CLARITY Act, currently moving through the U.S. Congress, aims to codify the commodity status of digital assets like XRP. If passed by late April 2026, it could trigger the institutional "buy-in" that the market has been waiting for since the SEC case ended.

Will XRP Price Recover?

For XRP to recover to its $3.50+ levels, three things must happen:

• Bitcoin Stability: XRP maintains an 80% correlation with $BTC. A Bitcoin recovery toward $75,000 is a prerequisite.
• ETF Inflow Reversal: The current net outflows from XRP ETFs must flip to positive as "TradFi" investors seek diversification.
• RLUSD Adoption: Increased use of the Ripple USD stablecoin for settlement on the XRPL will drive organic demand for $XRP as a gas token.

The global financial landscape is being shaken by escalating tensions in the Middle East. Reports suggest that the U.S.S. Tripoli, carrying around 3,500 Marines, has entered the Central Command region—fueling speculation about a possible ground operation targeting Iran. This growing uncertainty has triggered a clear risk-off mood across markets, with Bitcoin struggling to hold above the $65,000 level.

In the midst of all of these developments, and despite cryptos being slightly bearish, 3 altcoins are showing bullish momentum.

1. NKN (NKN): The Low-Cap Breakout

NKN has emerged as the top performer of the day, posting a staggering +38.63% gain in the last 24 hours and over 210% in the past week. With a market cap of approximately $11.89 million, NKN is a decentralized data transmission protocol aiming to rebuild the internet.

Analysis of the Surge

The recent price action for NKN is primarily driven by a massive 230.45% increase in trading volume. Interestingly, there are no specific fundamental catalysts or partnership announcements behind this move.

• Speculative Flow: This appears to be a classic low-cap "pump" driven by altcoin rotation.
• Technical Outlook: Traders should watch for sustained volume above $7.5M. A failure to hold current support could lead to a sharp reversal, common in high-volatility, low-cap assets.

2. DeAgentAI (AIA): AI Narrative Resilience

DeAgentAI (AIA) is making waves in the artificial intelligence sector, gaining 16.56% in 24 hours. The project operates as an AI-powered agent platform, a sector that has seen mixed results lately but remains a favorite for retail "moonshot" traders.

Social Hype vs. Fundamentals

While the AIA price is up nearly 30% over 7 days, much of the current momentum is attributed to social media hype and coordinated trading activity rather than protocol updates.

• Key Levels: Liquidity has settled around the $0.118 mark.
• Warning: The AI sector is prone to rapid sentiment shifts. Without a fundamental "moat," these gains rely heavily on continued social engagement.

3. DeXe (DEXE): Social Trading Momentum

DeXe, a decentralized social trading platform, has been holding up well, gaining 13.98% over the past 24 hours. Unlike many smaller caps, it has a more solid market cap of around $680 million, which usually points to stronger, more established capital behind the move.

Institutional and Retail Interest

DeXe recently showed up among the top gainers on Binance Spot. What stands out is that it’s moving up even while Bitcoin is going sideways—suggesting some capital is rotating into selective plays.

• Resistance to watch: A move above $7.80 could confirm further upside
• Positioning: Compared to other DeFi tools, DeXe’s focus on social trading gives it an edge, especially for traders looking for opportunities when the broader market is quiet

Summary of Bullish Movers

After weeks of persistent downside pressure, Bitcoin is showing early signs of recovery. With only a couple of days left in March, BTC’s monthly candle has flipped green—potentially marking a significant shift in market sentiment.

If the month closes this way, it would end a streak of five consecutive red monthly candles, a rare and closely watched pattern in crypto market cycles. Historically, such prolonged bearish phases often precede periods of consolidation or reversal, making this moment particularly important for traders and investors.

Why did Bitcoin Price surge upwards?

The primary catalyst behind the sudden recovery from $65,000 was a mix of geopolitical de-escalation and aggressive institutional accumulation. Reports from Bloomberg and other major outlets indicate that markets reacted instantly to headlines regarding a potential five-day postponement of military strikes in the Middle East.

Specifically, the market responded to statements from the U.S. administration suggesting that "productive conversations" were taking place, leading to a sharp "risk-on" move across both equities and crypto. In the crypto markets, this was amplified by a "short squeeze," where traders betting on further downside were forced to buy back their positions as the price surged toward $67,500.

Breaking the Five-Month Red Streak

If Bitcoin manages to close March in the green, it would mark a big turning point for the 2026 cycle. Up until now, it’s been five straight red monthly candles—something you don’t see often, and definitely not easy for investors to sit through.

From October 2025 to February 2026, the market stayed under heavy pressure, with sentiment dropping into “Extreme Fear” (as low as 8/100). Now, as of March 30, there’s a real chance we finally get a green monthly close.

Strategy and Institutional Buying Power

Despite the "Extreme Fear" sentiment prevailing in the retail sector, institutional accumulation has reached a fever pitch. Reports indicate that Strategy (the single largest corporate holder) has accumulated roughly 45,000 BTC in the past 30 days alone. This represents the fastest rate of increase in their holdings over the past year.

Furthermore, the launch of new crypto-asset ETNs by major banks like BNP Paribas in France on March 30, 2026, has provided additional structural support. These regulated products allow retail and wealth management clients to gain exposure to $Bitcoin and $Ethereum without the complexities of direct custody.

Ethereum and Altcoins Join the Rally

Bitcoin isn't the only asset flashing green. Ethereum has mirrored this recovery, successfully reclaiming the $2,000 psychological barrier and trading near $2,050. The broader market often looks to ETH as a gauge for "altseason" potential, and its strength suggests that the current rally has breadth beyond just a BTC bounce.

The easing of tensions has also caused oil prices to drop significantly, which traditionally helps risk-on assets. When the cost of energy stays stable, the fear of runaway inflation diminishes, giving investors more confidence to rotate back into the crypto market.

Bitcoin Price Analysis: What’s Next for BTC?

From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin's ability to hold the $65,000 level and push toward $68,000 is crucial. This zone has acted as a "Bull/Bear Line" throughout March.

• Support Re-test: BTC successfully defended the $63,700 - $65,000 range.
• Resistance: The $69,000 - $70,000 mark remains the big hurdle for a full trend reversal.
• Volume: The recovery saw a 53% jump in 24-hour trading volume, validating the move as more than just a "dead cat bounce."

What Is Happening to Markets Right Now?

Global financial markets are entering a phase that goes far beyond a typical correction. Over the past 24 hours, a combination of geopolitical escalation, energy supply disruptions, and tightening liquidity conditions has triggered a broad risk-off move across assets.

Oil prices have surged above $100 as tensions in the Middle East escalate, while disruptions to Russian energy infrastructure and export bans are tightening global supply. At the same time, trillions have been wiped from global equity markets.

Crypto has not been spared.

Bitcoin is holding near key levels but remains under pressure, while altcoins like $SOL and $DOGE are experiencing sharper declines. This synchronized weakness across asset classes signals something deeper than normal volatility.

👉 This is not just a dip — it may be a liquidity event.

What Is a Liquidity Crisis — and Why It Matters for Crypto

A liquidity crisis occurs when capital becomes scarce across financial markets. Investors begin pulling money out of risk assets, preferring cash or safer instruments.

This typically happens when:

• Global uncertainty spikes (war, geopolitical risks)
• Inflation expectations rise (oil shocks)
• Central banks are unable to ease monetary policy

In this environment, markets behave differently:

• Good news gets ignored
• Risk assets fall together
• Volatility increases across all sectors

Crypto, often viewed as an alternative system, is currently behaving like a high-risk asset — not a safe haven.

Why Crypto Is Falling Despite Bullish News

Under normal conditions, recent developments should have pushed crypto higher:

• President Donald Trump signaling strong support for Bitcoin and crypto adoption
• Institutional momentum growing, with major financial figures entering the market
• Increasing global interest in crypto as a payment and financial alternative

Yet, prices are declining.

This highlights a critical shift:

👉 Liquidity is dominating the market narrative.

When liquidity tightens, even the strongest bullish catalysts lose impact. Investors prioritize capital preservation over growth opportunities.

Oil Shock + War = Liquidity Drain

The current crisis is being driven by a powerful macro chain reaction:

• Escalating tensions involving Iran and the Strait of Hormuz
• Disruptions to Russian oil production and exports
• Saudi Arabia increasing pipeline output to stabilize supply
• Oil prices surging rapidly

This creates a feedback loop:

• Higher oil → higher inflation expectations
• Higher inflation → tighter monetary conditions
• Tighter conditions → less liquidity in markets
• Less liquidity → sell-off in risk assets (including crypto)

👉 Crypto is reacting to macro pressure, not internal weakness.

Is This the First Real Test for Crypto as a Global Asset?

Previous crypto downturns were mostly driven by internal events:

• Exchange collapses
• Regulatory crackdowns
• Market cycles

This time is different.

Crypto is now being tested within a global macroeconomic crisis, alongside traditional markets.

This raises an important question:

👉 Can crypto evolve from a speculative asset into a true macro hedge?

So far, the answer is mixed.

Bitcoin is holding relatively strong compared to altcoins, suggesting some resilience. However, it is still behaving more like a tech stock than digital gold in this phase.

What Happens Next?

Two scenarios are now unfolding:

Short-Term (High Risk)

• Continued volatility driven by war headlines
• Potential further downside if oil continues rising
• Liquidity remains tight

Mid-Term (Opportunity Phase)

• If geopolitical tensions stabilize → strong rebound potential
• Bullish fundamentals (institutional adoption, macro distrust) remain intact
• Crypto could regain its “alternative system” narrative

👉 Liquidity cycles, not narratives, will determine timing.

Final Take: A Defining Moment for Crypto

The current market environment may represent the first true global liquidity stress test for crypto.

For the first time, Bitcoin and altcoins are reacting primarily to:

• Energy markets
• Geopolitical risk
• Global liquidity conditions

Not crypto-native developments.

👉 This is a sign of maturity — but also vulnerability.

Whether crypto emerges stronger from this phase will define its role in the global financial system for years to come.

$BTC, $ETH, $SOL, $DOGE

The question of whether Ethereum (ETH) can really act as a store of value is coming up more and more as the network grows into a core part of the decentralized economy. That label used to belong almost entirely to Bitcoin, seen as “digital gold” because of its fixed supply. But since the Merge and the upgrades that followed, Ethereum has started to play by a different set of rules—and that’s starting to shift the conversation.

As of March 2026, Ethereum isn’t just for developers anymore. It’s become a global settlement layer. Still, with the price moving sideways lately, investors are asking the obvious question: is holding ETH actually a solid way to preserve value over time?

Is ETH a Store of Value?

$Ethereum is starting to be seen as a real store of value—but it works differently than $Bitcoin. Bitcoin’s story is all about scarcity. Ethereum, on the other hand, gets its value from how much the network is actually used, plus the fact that it can generate yield.

By staking ETH, holders can earn a native return—usually around 2.8% to 3.5%. That helps offset inflation and adds a compounding effect you simply don’t get with assets that don’t produce any yield.

What Makes an Asset a "Store of Value"?

A store of value is an asset that maintains its purchasing power over time without significant depreciation. To qualify, an asset typically requires:

• Scarcity: A controlled or diminishing supply.
• Security: A network resistant to attacks (Ethereum is secured by billions in staked capital).
• Liquidity: The ability to be traded easily for other goods or fiat.
• Demand: Consistent use cases that drive long-term interest.

Analyzing the 5-Year ETH Price History (2021–2026)

Looking at the technical data from the past five years, Ethereum has exhibited a distinct pattern of "high-velocity growth followed by structural consolidation."

The Consolidation Phase ($2,000 - $4,000)

Since the peak of the 2021 bull run and the subsequent market correction, ETH has largely spent the period between 2024 and early 2026 consolidating within a massive horizontal channel.

• The Floor: Strong support has formed around the $2,000 level. This psychological and technical barrier has held firm despite various macro headwinds and regulatory uncertainties.
• The Ceiling: Resistance remains heavy between $4,000 and $4,800. Every attempt to break into "price discovery" mode has been met with institutional profit-taking and rotation into newer ecosystem plays.

This prolonged consolidation is actually a healthy sign for a "store of value" thesis. It suggests that Ethereum is moving away from the "lottery ticket" volatility of its early years and toward a more stable, mature asset profile.

The "Ultrasound Money" Narrative: Is it Still Valid?

The term "ultrasound money," coined by Ethereum researcher Justin Drake, suggests that if Bitcoin is "sound" because its supply is capped, Ethereum is "ultrasound" because its supply can actually shrink.

How the Burn Mechanism Works

Under EIP-1559, a portion of every transaction fee is "burned" (destroyed). In 2026, we see a dual-track economic model:

• During High Activity: When DeFi and NFT volumes spike, more ETH is burned than issued to stakers, making the supply deflationary.
• During Low Activity (The L2 Shift): With the rise of Layer-2 solutions like Base and Arbitrum, some activity has moved off the mainnet. This has led to periods of slight inflation (approx. 0.7% annually), as seen in early 2026.

Despite this fluctuation, Ethereum's total supply remains significantly lower than it would have been under the old Proof-of-Work system, maintaining its competitive edge against fiat currencies.

Ethereum vs. Bitcoin: The Store of Value Showdown

While Bitcoin remains the king of "pure" scarcity, major institutions like BlackRock have highlighted Ethereum's role in the tokenization of real-world assets. This utility creates a "structural demand" for ETH that persists regardless of speculative market cycles.

Risks to the Ethereum Store of Value Thesis

No investment is without risk. For Ethereum to maintain its status, it must navigate:

• Regulatory Shifts: The classification of staked ETH by global regulators continues to be a point of contention.
• L2 Cannibalization: If too much activity moves to Layer-2s without enough value accruing back to the Layer-1, the "burn" mechanism may not be enough to sustain deflation.
• Technological Complexity: Unlike Bitcoin's "set in stone" code, Ethereum is constantly evolving, which introduces potential smart contract or upgrade risks.

Is Ethereum a Good Store of Value for the Future?

For investors seeking a balance between growth and preservation, Ethereum is a compelling store of value. It offers the security of a battle-tested blockchain combined with the unique advantage of native yield. While it may experience more volatility than Bitcoin, its role as the "Internet's Bond" makes it a foundational asset for any modern digital portfolio.

As we look toward the remainder of 2026, the current consolidation phase provides a strategic entry point for those who believe in the long-term "ultrasound" roadmap.

Analysts attribute last week's BTC ETF outflows to geopolitical tensions, fading ceasefire hopes, and end-of-quarter rebalancing.

A yield ban, a rival's audit, and an unresolved legislative clock have left Circle's stock in limbo for the past week.

Ethereum has rolled out a steady stream of upgrades since 2022. Here’s how those changes fit together—and what’s still ahead.

Xiaomi's MiMo V2 family arrives quietly but lands hard—a trillion-parameter AI challenger that nobody in the West saw coming.

GameStop has pledged nearly all of its Bitcoin to a covered call strategy on Coinbase Prime to generate some yield.

This morning in crypto: XRP $50 million transfer hits Coinbase, 96.8% of BTC holders in red and Saylor's buying streak ends. Plus, crypto market outlook and key levels to watch ahead of the start of Q2.

XRP saw a substantial spike in burn rate throughout the month of March, but it did not stick.

Ripple CTO emeritus believes a higher XRP price can boost payment utility.

RippleX engineers introduced a new privacy whitepaper for the XRP Ledger. Read how confidential tokens use zero-knowledge proofs to hide transaction amounts and balances, solving the main problem for banks and institutional adoption of XRP.

Shiba Inu community expresses concerns about recent changes in SHIB team and overall uncertainty about the project.

Key Takeaways

• Pershing Square’s Bill Ackman identifies premium equities trading at “extremely cheap” valuations amid current market conditions
• Microsoft reaches its most attractive pricing in ten years; Nvidia trades below S&P 500 multiples for first time since 2012
• The hedge fund manager identifies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac as “stupidly cheap” with 10X return potential
• Michael Burry, famed for forecasting the 2008 financial crisis, validates Ackman’s assessment as a “rare” market condition
• Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac equity prices have declined over 60% in the last half-year

Billionaire investor Bill Ackman, who runs Pershing Square Capital Management, took to X over the weekend to encourage market participants to purchase equities during the current downturn. The hedge fund titan characterized the escalating Middle Eastern tensions as “one-sided” and predicted favorable outcomes “for the U.S. and the world.”

The Pershing Square founder highlighted several blue-chip corporations trading at historically attractive valuations. [[LINK_START_1]]Microsoft[[LINK_END_1]] has reached its most compelling valuation in ten years. [[LINK_START_2]]Nvidia[[LINK_END_2]] now trades at a valuation discount relative to the broader S&P 500 index, marking the first such occurrence in thirteen years.

“This represents one of the most attractive entry points for quality assets we’ve seen in an extended period,” Ackman stated. “Disregard the pessimists.”

NVIDIA Corporation, NVDA

Ackman’s remarks surfaced as American equity markets experience headwinds from escalating Middle Eastern geopolitical tensions. Reports indicate President Trump is weighing military options including operations targeting Iran’s uranium stockpiles or its primary petroleum export facility.

Either scenario could propel crude oil valuations upward and intensify inflationary pressures. Such developments would complicate the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy objectives and potentially dampen investor sentiment.

Despite prevailing market anxieties, Ackman advised investors to see beyond immediate news cycles. He characterized the geopolitical tensions as generating an acquisition opportunity rather than justifying portfolio liquidation.

Mortgage Giants Identified as Major Opportunities

The billionaire investor went beyond tech stocks, describing government-sponsored enterprises Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac as “stupidly cheap.” He projected potential 10X returns and suggested the revaluation “could materialize in the near term.”

Both mortgage finance entities have experienced equity declines exceeding 60% during the previous six months, with recent trading at their annual low points.

Ackman maintains a documented position regarding restructuring these government-sponsored enterprises, proposals he has presented to the current administration.

Michael Burry, celebrated for accurately forecasting the 2008 mortgage crisis and featured in “The Big Short,” directly endorsed Ackman’s perspective. He stated he “cannot emphasize enough how rare this is in this market.”

Context Behind Ackman’s Public Statements

Ackman is simultaneously orchestrating the launch of a new closed-end investment vehicle and transitioning Pershing Square toward U.S. public market participation. The proposed fund reportedly emphasizes substantial positions in major technology enterprises.

This means appreciation in technology sector valuations would materially advantage Ackman’s strategic initiatives. Skeptics might suggest his public commentary aligns with his commercial objectives.

Nevertheless, market data partially validates his thesis. Critical economic indicators scheduled for release this week will likely influence investor reactions. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence measurement arrives Tuesday. Manufacturing sector activity data follows midweek.

Friday’s employment situation report also appears on the economic calendar, though petroleum price fluctuations connected to Middle Eastern developments may capture greater trader attention regarding inflation trajectories.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac equity prices persist near their annual nadirs as of this weekend.

The post Bill Ackman Calls Microsoft (MSFT) and Nvidia (NVDA) ‘Extremely Cheap’ Amid Market Selloff appeared first on Blockonomi.

Key Highlights

• Starcloud secured $170M in Series A funding at a $1.1 billion valuation, achieving unicorn status in just 17 months post-Y Combinator
• The startup is developing orbital data centers in low Earth orbit to overcome terrestrial energy and space limitations
• Successfully deployed the first Nvidia H100 GPU to space in November 2025 and conducted AI training operations
• Second satellite mission scheduled for October 2026 will include AWS Outposts and deliver 100x greater power capacity
• Competition intensifies as SpaceX and Blue Origin announce comparable orbital infrastructure initiatives, including Musk’s million-satellite proposal

A Redmond, Washington-based startup called Starcloud has successfully closed a $170 million Series A funding round. The investment values the company at $1.1 billion, granting it unicorn status merely 17 months following its presentation at Y Combinator’s demo day.

Benchmark and EQT Ventures co-led the financing round. Additional participants included Macquarie Capital, NFX, Y Combinator, along with notable angel backers such as Dennis Muilenburg, former Boeing chief executive, and Kevin Johnson, who previously led Starbucks.

This latest capital injection elevates Starcloud’s cumulative funding to $200 million. Earlier financing rounds brought in $34 million from backers including Andreessen Horowitz and In-Q-Tel, the venture investment division of the CIA.

Starcloud’s mission centers on establishing data processing facilities in low Earth orbit. The strategy leverages the virtually uninterrupted solar energy available in space, eliminating the land availability and power supply challenges that hamper terrestrial data center development.

Constructing traditional Earth-based data centers typically requires up to five years because of regulatory approvals and energy infrastructure lead times. Starcloud contends that orbital infrastructure sidesteps these obstacles completely.

“We’re witnessing the AI revolution hit the hard limits of terrestrial power infrastructure,” stated CEO Philip Johnston. “Relocating AI computation to orbit grants us access to boundless solar energy and eliminates the power constraint entirely.”

Pioneering GPU Deployment in Orbit

Starcloud deployed its inaugural satellite, Starcloud-1, in November 2025, equipped with an Nvidia H100 processor. According to the company, this marked the first instance of this GPU operating in the space environment. The mission achieved another milestone by completing the first orbital AI model training session and executing a variant of Google’s Gemini model beyond Earth’s atmosphere.

The satellite’s design and construction took only 21 months using a modest $3 million pre-seed budget—a timeline the company characterizes as unprecedented in aerospace development.

Starcloud has already established collaborative agreements with Nvidia, Amazon Web Services, and Google Cloud.

Second Mission Set for October Launch

Starcloud’s follow-up satellite, designated Starcloud-2, is scheduled for deployment in October 2026. This spacecraft will transport AWS Outposts equipment and produce 100 times the power output of its predecessor. The satellite will also debut the largest commercial deployable thermal radiator ever launched into space.

Starcloud-2 represents the company’s first satellite designed to process commercial cloud computing tasks for revenue-generating clients, including initial customer Crusoe.

The fresh capital will fund development of next-generation Starcloud-3 satellites, scale up manufacturing operations, expand the workforce, and lock in future launch service agreements.

Long-term projections call for a constellation comprising 88,000 satellites. The company anticipates orbital data centers will achieve price parity with ground-based alternatives by 2028 or 2029, driven by declining launch expenses.

Starcloud faces emerging competition in this sector. SpaceX, under Elon Musk’s leadership, revealed plans in February 2026 for an orbital data center network featuring one million satellites following the acquisition of his AI venture xAI. Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin has similarly signaled interest in comparable infrastructure projects.

Johnston indicated that Starcloud is negotiating energy capacity agreements with major cloud service providers, with public announcements anticipated in upcoming months.

The post Starcloud Secures $170M to Launch Orbital AI Data Centers, Reaches Unicorn Status appeared first on Blockonomi.

Key Points

• Expert identifies critical Bitcoin omission in federal capital standards
• Absence of clear guidance creates confusion for bank capital planning
• US Basel III implementation fails to address Bitcoin risk parameters
• Pressure mounts on authorities to establish Bitcoin capital framework
• Ambiguous regulations could restrict institutional Bitcoin engagement

Pierre Rochard has drawn attention to significant omissions regarding Bitcoin in recently proposed US banking capital standards, emphasizing the potential for legal complications and operational challenges. He called on federal authorities to establish clear parameters for how Bitcoin-related activities should be integrated into the updated Basel framework. This regulatory gap now influences strategic decisions around capital reserves and institutional compliance.

Expert Identifies Critical Omission in Capital Framework

Rochard delivered detailed commentary to US banking regulators concerning deficiencies in the revised Basel III capital standards. His analysis highlighted that current proposals provide no specific mention of Bitcoin or associated financial activities. This absence leaves financial institutions without definitive guidance on categorizing Bitcoin-related exposures.

Rochard observed that while regulators established comprehensive protocols for conventional risk categories, digital asset specifics remain unaddressed. The framework encompasses credit exposure, operational hazards, and market volatility across major banking institutions. However, it fails to explicitly address Bitcoin holdings, custodial arrangements, and derivative instruments.

Rochard cautioned that regulatory silence surrounding Bitcoin generates substantial uncertainty for banking entities. Institutions must apply existing classification systems without explicit regulatory guidance. This ambiguity could result in divergent interpretations and inconsistent implementation across the financial sector.

Legal Vulnerabilities and Compliance Challenges Identified

Rochard maintained that federal regulators need to articulate Bitcoin’s position within capital reserve requirements prior to rule finalization. He contended that ambiguous treatment opens the regulatory structure to potential legal contestation. Clear communication becomes critical for maintaining regulatory integrity.

Rochard referenced the Basel Committee’s SCO60 protocol addressing crypto asset risk calculations. This international framework imposes substantial capital requirements on unbackcd digital assets such as Bitcoin. Current US proposals neither confirm adoption nor specify modifications to this methodology.

Rochard observed that authorities recently provided clarity regarding tokenized securities within capital frameworks. They confirmed that digital representations of traditional assets receive identical regulatory treatment. Bitcoin has not received equivalent clarification, amplifying compliance uncertainty.

Banking Sector Implications and Strategic Concerns

Rochard emphasized that regulatory ambiguity impacts numerous banking operations connected to Bitcoin. Affected activities encompass custodial services, collateral-backed financing, and derivative market participation. Financial institutions struggle to evaluate capital efficiency given current proposal limitations.

Rochard suggested that guidance deficiencies may constrain institutional involvement in Bitcoin markets. Banks need predictable capital treatment frameworks to design services and implement risk management protocols. Absent such clarity, strategic and operational planning remains limited.

Rochard connected this issue to broader financial system performance. He proposed that well-defined Bitcoin regulations could enhance lending efficiency and decrease borrowing expenses. Therefore, regulatory direction may significantly impact both institutional strategy and overall market depth.

The post Bitcoin Expert Demands Regulatory Clarity in US Basel III Framework appeared first on Blockonomi.

Key Takeaways

• Brian Nowak of Morgan Stanley designated Meta as the firm’s premier investment choice with an Overweight recommendation
• The investment bank’s target was adjusted downward from $825 to $775, yet still represents approximately 50% potential gains
• The social media giant currently trades at roughly 15x projected 2027 earnings — representing a valuation one standard deviation beneath its decade-long mean
• The bank identifies a prospective agentic AI offering nicknamed “MetaClaw” as a significant catalyst for expansion
• Expected workforce reductions of approximately 20% could generate $3–$10 billion in annual savings, enhancing earnings per share

Meta Platforms has experienced a challenging beginning to 2026. Shares have declined approximately 20% since January, pressured by anxieties surrounding artificial intelligence capital expenditures, advertising market dynamics, and regulatory scrutiny.

Meta Platforms, Inc., META

However, Morgan Stanley believes the market downturn has created an attractive entry point.

On March 30, analyst Brian Nowak designated Meta as his firm’s premier stock recommendation, launching coverage with an Overweight designation. While he reduced his valuation target from $825 to $775, this revised figure still represents approximately 50% appreciation potential from present trading levels.

“Sentiment has bottomed out… Now is the moment to acquire META,” Nowak stated in his research report.

The investment thesis pivots on valuation metrics. Meta currently trades at approximately 15 times Morgan Stanley’s projected 2027 earnings figure of $36 per share. This multiple sits one standard deviation beneath its ten-year historical average — a threshold crossed just four times throughout the last decade.

Nowak identified three primary concerns weighing on investor sentiment: returns on Meta’s substantial AI infrastructure investments, digital advertising market resilience, and escalating regulatory challenges.

His assessment suggests these worries are already reflected in the current share price.

Regarding advertising, Nowak noted his recent industry surveys are “showing more positive momentum than twelve months prior.” He made modest 1% reductions to advertising revenue projections for 2026 and 2027 as a prudent adjustment, while maintaining that current valuation levels remain compelling even with this conservative approach.

The “MetaClaw” Innovation Framework

Among the more intriguing elements of the research note is a conceptual agentic AI platform Morgan Stanley has labeled “MetaClaw.” This theoretical product would merge MetaAI, the Manus agent system, and the Moltbook infrastructure into what the investment bank characterizes as a comprehensive “personal life assistant.”

This offering, should it come to fruition, would deliver customized content experiences, complete e-commerce transactions through Messenger, and autonomous web navigation — all integrated within Meta’s established application network.

Nowak highlighted Meta’s 250 million business profiles and its cross-platform presence spanning Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, and Messenger as critical foundations for enabling agentic commerce capabilities.

Efficiency Initiatives May Strengthen Investment Case

Industry reports indicate Meta may implement workforce reductions approaching 20%. Morgan Stanley projects such restructuring could yield between $3 billion and $10 billion in annual cost savings, potentially contributing more than $1 to 2027 earnings per share projections.

“This action would, in our assessment, create a more robust floor for ’27 EPS even amid continued investment,” Nowak explained.

Concerning regulatory matters, recent legal settlements totaling approximately $380 million are viewed as manageable relative to Meta’s financial scale. Any comprehensive legislative reforms are anticipated to require years before implementation.

Examining the wider analyst community perspective, META maintains a Strong Buy consensus rating derived from 40 Buy recommendations, five Hold ratings, and zero Sell opinions recorded over the preceding three months. The mean price objective among Wall Street analysts stands at $865.58, suggesting upside potential exceeding 64% from current trading levels.

Morgan Stanley identified May and September as probable near-term catalyst periods, corresponding with Meta’s LlamaCon developer conference and its annual Connect showcase event.

The post Morgan Stanley Elevates Meta Platforms (META) to Top Pick With $775 Target appeared first on Blockonomi.

Key Highlights

• Fiscal 2025 revenues reached RMB 403.7 million (approximately $56.5M), marking a 39.1% increase from the previous year.
• Annual net losses decreased to RMB 50.2 million ($7M) compared to RMB 64.2 million in fiscal 2024, demonstrating enhanced operational efficiency.
• Client retention metrics improved to 41% during 2025, compared to 34% the prior year.
• Working capital expanded by 70.5% to reach roughly RMB 2,693.7 million ($383.2M) by December 31, 2025.
• HOLO shares trade close to their 52-week bottom of $1.90, experiencing approximately 94% depreciation year-over-year, with current market capitalization at $28.7 million.

MicroCloud Hologram (HOLO) shares are hovering around their 52-week floor of $1.90, carrying a market capitalization of $28.7 million.

MicroCloud Hologram Inc., HOLO

On March 27, 2026, MicroCloud Hologram submitted its yearly 20-F filing to the Securities and Exchange Commission, covering fiscal year 2025 ending December 31. The filing revealed robust revenue expansion despite ongoing operational losses.

Annual revenues totaled RMB 403.7 million, equivalent to roughly $56.5 million. This represents a 39.1% increase compared to the RMB 290.3 million recorded in fiscal 2024.

Management attributed the revenue acceleration to heightened market appetite for holographic technologies and broadened technology service portfolios. The revenue growth occurred despite significant downward pressure on the equity valuation.

Operating losses continued their contraction trajectory. The firm recorded a net loss of RMB 50.2 million ($7 million) during 2025, representing an improvement from the RMB 64.2 million loss reported in the preceding period. This marks notable progress toward profitability, though the company still operates in the red.

Client retention metrics also showed improvement. The retention percentage climbed to 41% in 2025 from 34% in 2024. While modest in absolute terms, the trend signals strengthening customer relationships.

Enhanced Financial Positioning

Working capital balances reached approximately RMB 2,693.7 million ($383.2 million) at the conclusion of fiscal 2025. This represents a substantial 70.5% elevation from the RMB 1,580.2 million recorded in 2024 — a significant improvement that enhances the firm’s operational agility and financial runway.

MicroCloud’s primary business offerings encompass precision holographic LiDAR technologies, advanced holographic imaging systems, sensor chip engineering, and intelligent holographic vision solutions for automotive applications. The portfolio also includes holographic digital twin technology platforms.

The organization has maintained an active research and development agenda. Recent announcements include progress on a quantum intelligent interconnected fault-tolerant consensus algorithm designed for financial edge computing infrastructure.

Additionally, MicroCloud revealed a transmission methodology for multi-particle entangled quantum states utilizing quantum Fourier transformation techniques, and launched a scalable quantum Fourier transform simulation platform built on field-programmable gate array (FPGA) architecture with high-bandwidth memory integration.

The company also introduced a learnable quantum spectral filtering technology for hybrid graph neural network applications — purportedly enabling exponential compression capabilities in graph signal processing operations.

Equity Performance Lags Financial Progress

The operational and financial enhancements have failed to lift equity valuations. HOLO shares have declined approximately 94% over the trailing twelve months and continue trading near their 52-week nadir of $1.90.

This disparity between revenue momentum and stock performance reflects ongoing profitability challenges and the unusual situation where annual revenues of $56.5 million exceed the company’s total market capitalization of $28.7 million.

The complete annual report featuring audited consolidated financial statements can be accessed through the SEC’s electronic filing system. MicroCloud indicated it will furnish physical copies to shareholders upon written request.

The post MicroCloud Hologram (HOLO) Stock Delivers 39% Revenue Jump Despite Share Price Collapse appeared first on Blockonomi.

Over the past week, Bitcoin’s price action has remained weak, with repeated failures to reclaim levels above $70,000, leaving the asset consolidating between $66,000 and $68,000. The asset posted a slight uptick of 2% on Monday, as it traded above $67,700.

Analysts warn that geopolitical uncertainty is weakening bullish setups, thereby reducing confidence in any upside despite the emergence of short-term price recovery signals.

Capital Is Leaving Bitcoin

On-chain analyst Willy Woo said that according to legacy valuation models, Bitcoin could bottom between $46,000 and $54,000, while also indicating a potentially extended timeline for recovery. In his latest tweet, Woo said that capital held in BTC has been trending downward since November, which points to steady outflows. The analyst also highlighted that the CVDD Floor model, currently near $45,500, continues to rise, providing support.

However, he warned that such models are based on historical patterns derived from just four prior bear markets, all of which occurred during a broader “secular” uptrend in global risk assets. If that macro backdrop weakens or breaks down, Woo warned that the leading crypto asset could enter uncharted territory, which could end up increasing the chances of a deeper and longer bear market.

In line with these warnings about a fragile macro setup, another prominent analyst has also dismissed the recent rally as temporary.

Bitcoin Bottom Not In Yet

Crypto analyst Doctor Profit has reiterated a bearish outlook on Bitcoin, while stating that the asset’s move does not mean a confirmed trend reversal. According to his findings, Bitcoin remains in a consolidation phase and could still see further upside in the near term, and a possible move toward the $79,000-$84,000 range is expected.

However, the analyst acknowledged that this potential upside does not justify long positions from a risk-reward perspective. Instead, he maintains an active strategy of positioning shorts, including adding new entries if Bitcoin revisits the $79,000-$84,000 zone. While he assigned a moderate probability to price reaching that range, he warned that ongoing geopolitical uncertainty reduces the attractiveness of bullish exposure.

Doctor Profit further explained that he does not consider the market to have bottomed yet and continues to view Bitcoin as being in an active bear phase. In a separate statement, he placed a likely bottom between $35,000 and $45,000.

The post Bitcoin (BTC) Floor at $46K? Willy Woo Says Macro Risks Could Push It Lower appeared first on CryptoPotato.

The pro-XRP attorney John Deaton has concurred with recent remarks by Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse that the United States cannot afford another Gary Gensler experience. He was the former chair of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

In a tweet explaining his opinion, Deaton insisted that all the guidance and clarity the crypto industry has received so far can be taken away if a new administration takes over. According to the pro-crypto lawyer, the only way to guarantee that this does not happen is to pass crypto-friendly legislation.

Ripple CEO on U.S. Weaponization of Crypto Policy

Deaton’s remarks echo those of Garlinghouse, who, over the weekend, was a guest at a morning Fox Business show anchored by Maria Bartiromo. During the interview, the Ripple executive warned against the weaponization of crypto policy in the United States.

Garlinghouse revealed that the Biden administration’s war on crypto never made sense to him. He likened their approach to regulating the relatively nascent industry to waging war on emails – a move that could significantly affect digital innovation. Instead of regulatory agencies like the SEC engaging in “thoughtful rule-making,” they initiated “lawfare” and just sued crypto companies. In response to the attack, most companies went offshore.

The Ripple CEO believes the U.S. must prevent another Gensler moment to create an environment favorable to innovation, such as blockchain technology, to thrive. So far, the Trump administration has improved clarity regarding digital asset regulation.

Two weeks ago, the SEC clarified that most crypto assets are not securities, while this is a huge step in the right direction, Garlinghouse insists on more. Codifying bills like the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (the CLARITY Act) into law will help ensure that there is no second Gensler experience. Garlinghouse sees the CLARITY Act being codified by May, 30 days more than his initial prediction.

Deaton Agrees With Garlinghouse

Backing Garlinghouse’s opinions, Deaton added that while the CLARITY Act could unlock a gateway for large financial institutions and banks to lean into the crypto industry, he still sees these entities as predators. This is because banks have “captured career politicians” to do their bidding.

“Look how those career politicians protected the banks over yield related to stablecoins in the Clarity Act,” the lawyer stated.

Nevertheless, Deaton believes the mere thought of installing another Gensler as SEC chair should force a deal that would lead to the codification of the CLARITY Act as soon as possible.

The post Pro-XRP Attorney and Ripple CEO Agree the U.S. Can’t Afford Another Gary Gensler Moment appeared first on CryptoPotato.

After a sluggish weekend with little to no noteworthy price movements, bitcoin’s volatility returned on Monday morning with a dip to a new monthly low and an impressive rebound.

Most large-rcap alts are slightly in the green on a daily scale, and ETH has emerged as one of the top performers, having surged to over $2,050 as of press time.

BTC Drops and Pumps

Bitcoin went on a massive run last Monday after Trump’s claims that the US and Iran had made progress with their war negotiations, jumping from $67,500 to almost $72,000. It dropped to $69,000 after Iran denied Trump’s statements, but resumed its rally on Wednesday when it tapped a weekly peak at $72,000.

This resistance was too hard to overcome, and BTC quickly began to nosedive. The culmination during that business week was on Friday, when the cryptocurrency dropped to $65,600 for the first time in about four weeks.

It managed to rebound to over $66,000 almost immediately, and spent the weekend trading sideways between that lower boundary and $67,000. It dipped once again earlier this morning to a new monthly low at just under $65,000 before it jumped to nearly $68,000, where it was stopped after the latest developments on the war front.

Its market cap has calmed at $1.350 trillion, while its dominance over the alts stands at just over 56% on CG.

ETH Above $2K

The world’s largest altcoin has reacted well to the latest price volatility, rebounding by 3% since yesterday to over $2,050 as of now. The asset dipped below $1,950 earlier this morning. BNB, XRP, SOL, TRX, DOGE, and ADA are also slightly in the green.

In contrast, HYPE has dropped by 4%, while BCH is still 6% down on the day after yesterday’s flash crash. More gains come from the likes of ZEC, SHIB, UNI, NEAR, and SKY, while SIREN continues to outperform with another 8% surge to almost $1.80.

The total crypto market cap has recovered $40 billion since this time on Sunday, and now sits above $2.4 trillion on CG.

The post Bitcoin Rebounds From New Monthly Lows, Ethereum Reclaims $2K: Market Watch appeared first on CryptoPotato.

Following a quiet weekend with little to no actual price moves, bitcoin and the altcoins could be primed for more fluctuations as the business week unfolds due to several big events in the US.

Perhaps the two that are likely to attract the most attention will take place on Monday and Friday.

Powell Talks, Jobs Report Goes Live

The Kobeissi Letter’s key events for the upcoming week are actually seven, but a couple of them might not have any impact on crypto, while the first one already took place – the opening of the futures markets in the US, as well as the legacy markets in Asia and Europe. BTC’s price fluctuations indeed went wild as other financial markets coped with Trump’s latest statements on the war against Iran.

Another big event for today is expected to be the speech from the US Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell. After the second FOMC meeting of 2026, he expressed a hawkish stance regarding the interest rates, which led to another BTC correction.

Tuesday will see the release of March Consumer Confidence data and February JOLTS Job Openings data, both of which, combined, could result in some minor volatility for bitcoin.

The more important March Jobs Report is expected on Friday, which typically leads to fluctuations in the ever-volatile cryptocurrency market.

Key Events This Week:

1. US Market Futures Open, Iran War Day #30 – Today 6 PM ET

2. Fed Chair Powell Speaks – Monday

3. March Consumer Confidence data – Tuesday

4. February JOLTS Job Openings data – Tuesday

5. March ADP Nonfarm Employment data – Wednesday

6. March Retail…

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) March 29, 2026

War Impact

Aside from the economic events listed above, the developments on the US/Israel vs Iran war have been impacting bitcoin the most over the past month. As such, any major changes in that regard are expected to continue to increase BTC’s volatility.

The latest reports suggest that the US is indeed preparing to send troops to Iran to seize and control the key oil region of Kharg Island and to extract nearly 1,000 pounds of uranium. Additionally, the WSJ refuted previous reports that the US and Iran had engaged in direct negotiations about ending the war, which would mean more attacks, casualties, global uncertainty, and intense volatility in the financial markets.

The post Crypto Markets Brace for 4 Key Events This Week, Beginning With Powell on Monday appeared first on CryptoPotato.

After an unexpectedly calm weekend in which its price stood between $66,000 and $67,000, bitcoin went on a micro wild ride in the early hours on Monday, dipping to a new monthly low before it jumped toward $68,000.

This volatility ensued after Trump’s latest comments on the US/Israel vs Iran war, which included bragging that it was a “big day in Iran.”

US to Seize Kharg Island?

In addition, an FT report, cited by The Kobeissi Letter, indicated that Trump said he wanted to “take the oil in Iran” and mulls an operation to seize the export hub of Kharg Island. Recall that the relatively small island is responsible for up to 90% of the country’s oil infrastructure.

“To be honest with you, my favorite thing is to take the oil in Iran but some stupid people back in the US say: ‘why are you doing that?’ But they’re stupid people,” Trump said.

The WSJ, on the other hand, doubled down on other reports from the past several days that the US is indeed considering sending troops to Iran, but with a more precise purpose – to extract nearly 1,000 pounds of uranium.

This is believed to be a “complex and risky” mission as it would require US forces to remain in the Middle Eastern country for “days or longer.”

However, Trump believes this step could accomplish the main goal of preventing Iran from ever making a nuclear weapon. He has also advised his staff to “press Iran to agree to surrender the material as a condition for ending the war.”

Although many different reports from the past week or so gave contrasting information on whether both nations have engaged in direct negotiations, the WSJ said this hasn’t been the case yet.

BTC’s Price Reaction

Bitcoin’s weekend price actions were highly underwhelming, with the asset failing to move from the $66,000-$67,000 range. However, it dipped to a new monthly low of just under $65,000 when the legacy spot and futures markets opened during the night, coping with Trump’s latest comments.

It rebounded instantly with a jump of nearly $3,000 to almost $68,000. Most alts mimicked bitcoin’s price volatility, which led to $300 million in liquidated positions in the span of just hours. Longs are responsible for over $200 million, while the single-largest wrecked position took place on Bybit and was worth just shy of $10 million.

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