Binance's Bitcoin conversion for SAFU may enhance user trust and market stability, reflecting a strategic shift towards decentralized assets.

The post Binance completes second batch of Bitcoin conversion, acquires $100M in BTC appeared first on Crypto Briefing.

Tether's reduced fundraising highlights investor skepticism, potentially impacting its market perception and future financial strategies.

The post Tether scales back $20B fundraising bid amid valuation concerns: Report appeared first on Crypto Briefing.

Internal discord among Bitcoin developers poses a greater risk than quantum computing, potentially impacting future upgrades and stability.

The post Bitcoin’s biggest risk is governance, not quantum computing, says Galaxy CEO appeared first on Crypto Briefing.

Yearn Finance highlights the urgent need for better risk management as DeFi faces growing challenges.

The post Corn: DeFi faces critical customer support challenges, Yearn’s foresight on UST highlights governance risks, and the market is set for recovery in late 2023 | On The Brink with Castle Island appeared first on Crypto Briefing.

2025 is set to be a game-changing year for blockchain, with explosive growth in digital wallets and investments.

The post Matthew Le Merle: 2025 will be the year of crypto equity, hundreds of millions will adopt digital wallets, and US regulation is shifting positively | On The Brink with Castle Island appeared first on Crypto Briefing.

Bitcoin Magazine

Strategy ($MSTR) Plummets 8% As Bitcoin Hits One‑Year Lows

Shares of Strategy plunged today, dipping more than 8% in trading as Bitcoin traded at new one-year lows and crypto risk assets came under renewed pressure. 

The decline pushed MSTR’s share price to levels not seen since late 2024, deepening a multi‑month downtrend that has left the stock among the worst performers on the Nasdaq this year.

Bitcoin’s slump — dipping below key technical thresholds over the weekend and early week — has reverberated through markets, hitting crypto‑linked equities especially hard. 

Shares of major crypto platforms, like Robinhood and Circle also lost ground, highlighting the increasing correlation between Bitcoin prices and related stocks.

With over 713,000 Bitcoins on its balance sheet, purchased at an average cost near $76,000 per coin, Strategy is grappling with unrealized losses after Bitcoin’s recent slide below that level.

Despite price dips, Chairman Michael Saylor has made it clear that Strategy won’t be selling its Bitcoin — and in fact is doubling down on purchases even as the market dips, signaling his intent to keep accumulating more.

In his messaging, he’s basically said he’s comfortable with holding and adding even on weakness, not cashing out when prices fall. 

Strategy bought more bitcoin last week

Earlier this week, Strategy said it purchased 855 bitcoin for about $75.3 million, paying an average price of $87,974 per BTC, according to a Monday filing. 

The acquisition came just days before bitcoin fell below $75,000 over the weekend on some rapid selling, briefly pushing Strategy’s treasury close to $1 billion in unrealized losses.

Now, the price of bitcoin is below those levels near $74,000.

The company now holds 713,502 BTC, acquired for roughly $54.26 billion at an average cost of $76,052 per coin. 

Last week’s purchase was fully funded through the sale of common stock, following Strategy’s ongoing capital-raising approach to finance bitcoin buys. The purchase of 855 bitcoin was significantly smaller compared to prior company purchases.

At the time of writing, bitcoin’s price dropped below $74,000 today, its lowest level in a year. The bitcoin price has now retraced more than 40% from its all‑time highs reached in late 2025. 

Prior to today, the one-year low for the bitcoin price was $74,747. Strategy shares started the day at $139.66, but are currently trading at $128.87. The shares 52-week high was around $450 per share.

This post Strategy ($MSTR) Plummets 8% As Bitcoin Hits One‑Year Lows first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Micah Zimmerman.

Bitcoin Magazine

Bitcoin Price Plunges 40% From All-Time Highs to One-Year Lows

Bitcoin’s price dropped below $75,000 today, its lowest level in nearly a year, as global crypto markets endured a sustained wave of selling triggered by broader financial stresses and shifting investor appetite. 

The bitcoin price has now retraced more than 40% from its all‑time highs reached in late 2025. According to Bitcoin Magazine Pro data, the one-year low for the bitcoin price is $74,747. Bitcoin is dancing near that number.

Recent trading data showed Bitcoin price slipping through key technical support levels, driving forced liquidations across derivatives markets and intensifying downside price pressure. Over roughly the past 24 hours, around $2.56 billion in Bitcoin positions were liquidated, according to market data. 

This follows weeks of risk‑off sentiment across global asset classes.

The downturn in cryptocurrencies has coincided with stress in other markets like precious metals, tech sell-offs, and losses in equities. 

Institutional players report losses as policy signals remain dubious 

The market slide has had tangible impacts on key industry participants. Galaxy Digital, a major crypto investment firm led by Michael Novogratz, reported a $482 million loss for the fourth quarter of 2025, earlier today. 

The firm attributed this to the decline in digital asset prices and a sharp drop in trading volumes, which fell more than 40% from the prior quarter. Galaxy’s stock traded lower following the earnings release, reflecting investor concern about the broader bitcoin price and crypto downturn.

Also, Bitcoin price currently trades below $76,000, which is roughly the average price at which Strategy acquired a portion of its BTC holdings and well below the cost of many of its accumulated coins. 

Since Strategy owns hundreds of thousands of bitcoins at higher average purchase prices, the current market value is less than what was paid for much of its inventory, leaving a significant portion of its holdings “underwater.”

Market participants have also pointed to U.S. monetary policy developments as a significant driver of the sell‑off. 

The recent nomination of Kevin Warsh as chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve by President Donald Trump has prompted forecasts of tighter monetary conditions. 

A strengthening U.S. dollar in response to monetary policy shifts has also weighed on Bitcoin. A firmer dollar typically makes non‑yielding assets like Bitcoin less attractive, reducing inflows from investors seeking currency‑neutral hedges. Analysts noted that the dollar’s recent performance provided technical headwinds that amplified the crypto market’s decline.

The Trump administration has continued to engage with industry leaders on digital asset policy, including efforts to advance regulatory clarity through legislation such as the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act. 

This dialogue has really slowed down over the last couple of months, it has not yet translated into stabilizing price action amid current conditions.

Bitcoin price in genuine ‘crypto winter’

Despite this, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan said in a recent memo that the crypto market has been in a genuine “crypto winter” since early 2025, rather than experiencing a short-lived correction. 

Hougan highlighted that bearish sentiment remains strong, as evidenced by the Crypto Fear and Greed Index, which shows near all-time fear levels despite positive developments like the appointment of a bitcoin-friendly Fed chair.

Hougan noted that institutional flows helped mask the severity of the downturn. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs and digital asset treasury vehicles purchased over 744,000 BTC during this period—roughly $75 billion in demand — cushioning bitcoin price’s drawdown, which he estimated could have reached nearly 60% without this support. 

He compared the current environment to previous downturns in 2018 and 2022, where markets remained depressed despite incremental positive news.

Looking ahead, Hougan suggested that crypto winters often end not with exuberance but with exhaustion. In his words, “It’s always darkest before the dawn.”

Bitcoin price is currently at $74,800, with a 24-hour trading volume of 55 B. BTC is -5% in the last 24 hours. It is currently -5% from its 7-day all-time high of $78,994.

This post Bitcoin Price Plunges 40% From All-Time Highs to One-Year Lows first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Micah Zimmerman.

Bitcoin Magazine

Bitcoin-Treasury The Smarter Web Company Listed on London Stock Exchange

The Smarter Web Company began trading on the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange today, marking a major milestone for the UK-based firm as it continues to position itself as Britain’s largest publicly listed bitcoin holder.

The company’s shares debuted under the ticker SWC at 43p. The uplisting follows the company’s initial public offering on the Aquis Exchange in April 2025, where it went on to become the UK’s best-performing equity that year.

Founded in 2009 by chief executive Andrew Webley, The Smarter Web Company began as a web design agency focused on building bespoke, mobile-friendly websites for small and medium-sized businesses. 

In 2025, the firm pivoted toward a bitcoin treasury strategy, deploying capital into bitcoin as what it describes as “digital capital” on its balance sheet.

Today, The Smarter Web Company holds 2,674 bitcoin, making it the largest UK public company by bitcoin holdings and the 29th largest globally among public firms. 

According to The Smarter Web Company, roughly £221 million of investor capital has been used to acquire bitcoin at an average price of just over $111,000 per coin.

Bitcoin was trading near $77,000 on Tuesday, down significantly from its peak above $120,000 last year.

Speaking at the London Stock Exchange opening ceremony, Webley said the Main Market listing represents the next stage in building a long-term British public company aligned with Bitcoin. “Moving to the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange marks the next significant milestone in that journey,” Webley said. “I am committed to building a British success story that contributes to the UK economy and demonstrates how bitcoin can be used as digital capital.”

Webley also reiterated his ambition for the company to enter the FTSE 250, potentially as early as the third quarterly rebalance of 2026, with longer-term aspirations to eventually reach the FTSE 100.

The United Kingdom’s version of Strategy 

The Smarter Web Company’s strategy has drawn comparisons to U.S.-based firm Strategy, which pioneered the corporate bitcoin treasury model. 

While a growing number of companies have since adopted similar approaches, Webley has argued that volatility is an inherent feature of the strategy rather than a flaw. 

Despite its recent decline from a peak market capitalization of over £1 billion, Webley recently said the company plans to continue accumulating bitcoin regardless of price. The firm spent about £220 million accumulating their bitcoin, while its shares have plunged about 95%. 

Webley argues the strategy is long-term, noting the company has increased its bitcoin holdings per share despite the downturn and plans to seek more institutional funding with a move to the London Stock Exchange’s main market.

This post Bitcoin-Treasury The Smarter Web Company Listed on London Stock Exchange first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Micah Zimmerman.

Bitcoin Magazine

Tether Launches Open-Source Bitcoin Mining Operating System

Tether has open-sourced a new operating system for bitcoin mining, unveiling MiningOS (MOS) as part of a broader push to reduce the industry’s reliance on proprietary, vendor-controlled software.

The stablecoin issuer announced Monday that MOS, a modular and scalable operating system designed to manage, monitor, and automate bitcoin mining operations, is now available as open-source software under the Apache 2.0 license. 

The system was officially unveiled at the 2026 Plan ₿ Forum in San Salvador.

According to Tether, MOS is built to coordinate the complex mix of hardware, power systems, containers, and physical infrastructure that underpin modern bitcoin mining. 

Rather than relying on fragmented software stacks, the operating system treats every component of a mining site as a controllable “worker” within a single operational layer, providing operators with unified visibility across hashrate, energy usage, device health, and site-level infrastructure.

The company said MOS uses a self-hosted, peer-to-peer architecture based on Holepunch protocols, allowing miners to manage operations without relying on centralized services or third-party platforms. 

The system is designed to scale from small home installations running on lightweight hardware to industrial-grade deployments managing hundreds of thousands of machines across multiple locations.

“Mining OS is built to make Bitcoin mining infrastructure more open, modular, and accessible,” said Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino. “Whether it’s a small operator running a handful of machines or a full-scale industrial site, the same operating system can scale without reliance on centralized, third-party software.”

Tether’s Mining SDK announcement

Alongside MOS, Tether also announced the Mining SDK, the framework on which the operating system is built. The Mining SDK is expected to be finalized and released in collaboration with the open-source community in the coming months.

The toolkit is designed to allow developers to build mining software and internal tools without recreating device integrations or operational primitives from scratch, offering ready-made workers, APIs, and UI components.

Tether said the goal of open-sourcing its mining stack is to lower barriers to entry for new miners and remove the “black box” nature of many existing mining setups, where hardware and monitoring tools are tightly coupled to proprietary platforms.

The release places Tether alongside other crypto firms pushing open-source mining infrastructure, including Jack Dorsey’s Block, which has previously backed efforts to decentralize mining tooling and hardware access.

MOS marks another step in Tether’s expansion beyond its core stablecoin business. The company has increasingly positioned itself across mining, payments, and infrastructure, reporting more than $10 billion in net profit in 2025, driven largely by interest income on its reserves.

This post Tether Launches Open-Source Bitcoin Mining Operating System first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Micah Zimmerman.

Bitcoin Magazine

ING Deutschland Opens Retail Access to Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Products

ING Deutschland, one of Germany’s largest retail banks, has begun offering retail clients access to cryptocurrency-linked exchange-traded notes (ETNs) and products, allowing customers to gain exposure to bitcoin and other crypto directly through their existing securities accounts.

According to information published on ING’s website, the products are physically backed exchange-traded instruments issued by established asset managers including 21Shares, Bitwise, and VanEck. 

The instruments track the performance of individual cryptocurrencies and trade on regulated exchanges via ING’s Direct Depot platform, which is typically used for stocks, ETFs, and mutual funds.

The bank said the bitcoin offering is intended to lower barriers to entry for crypto investing by integrating digital asset exposure into familiar banking infrastructure. 

Clients do not need to set up third-party crypto exchanges, manage private keys, or operate self-custody wallets, as custody and execution are handled within the securities account framework.

“This creates another particularly low-threshold access to crypto investments via exchange-traded products,” said Martijn Rozemuller, CEO of VanEck Europe, in a translated press release. “Many investors want a solution that fits into existing depot structures and at the same time convinces them with transparent costs. That’s exactly what this partnership stands for.”

ING noted that the bitcoin and crypto ETNs receive the same tax treatment in Germany as directly held cryptocurrencies. Under current German tax rules, capital gains on crypto assets may be exempt if the position is held for more than one year, potentially making the products attractive to long-term investors.

Despite the expanded access, the bank emphasized that the products carry substantial risks. ING warned of “extreme” price volatility, the possibility of total loss in the event of issuer insolvency, liquidity risks, market manipulation, and ongoing regulatory uncertainty surrounding digital assets.

In educational materials published alongside the launch, ING took a notably cautious stance on the asset class itself.

 “Cryptocurrencies are speculative products that have no intrinsic value,” the bank stated, adding that crypto prices are “strongly dependent on psychological effects,” which also influence exchange-traded crypto products.

German banks are embracing bitcoin

Germany’s major banking groups are moving to bring crypto trading into the regulated retail banking system. DZ Bank has secured MiCAR approval and will roll out its “meinKrypto” platform across cooperative banks, allowing customers to trade and custody Bitcoin and other digital assets directly within existing banking apps, while also joining a consortium developing a regulated euro stablecoin. 

In parallel, the Sparkassen-Finanzgruppe plans to launch Bitcoin and crypto trading for private customers by summer 2026, with technical support from DekaBank, marking a reversal from its earlier skepticism toward digital assets. 

This post ING Deutschland Opens Retail Access to Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Products first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Micah Zimmerman.

US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded $561.8 million in net inflows on Feb. 2, ending a four-day streak of nearly $1.5 billion in outflows.

Investors could interpret the number as a return of conviction after punishing outflows, but Jamie Coutts, chief crypto analyst at Real Vision, offered a different read.

According to him:

“Aggregate ETF flows are not buying the dip. Net institutional demand is coming almost entirely from a shrinking group of Treasury-style buyers with remaining balance-sheet capacity. That's not sustainable under continued pressure. A durable Bitcoin bottom likely requires these actors to reverse their positioning — not just slow their selling.”

The distinction matters because ETF inflows measure net share creation in the primary market, not whether the marginal buyer is taking directional Bitcoin risk.

A positive flow print can represent risk-on conviction or risk-off positioning dressed up as demand. The difference hinges on what occurs in the derivatives market immediately after those ETF shares are created.

Flows aren't exposure

Exchange-traded fund creations and redemptions are executed by authorized participants, which are large institutions that keep ETF prices close to net asset value through arbitrage.

When an ETF trades at a premium or discount to its underlying holdings, authorized participants can profit by creating or redeeming shares. That activity shows up as “flows” even when the initiating trade is market structure-driven rather than a macro dip-buy.

More importantly, inflows can represent the spot leg of a delta-neutral basis trade.

Banque de France explicitly describes hedge funds exploiting the futures-spot basis by shorting futures and hedging with long spot exposure via Bitcoin ETF shares.

The central bank notes that basis ranges and annualized equivalents make this trade attractive when volatility and margin costs are stable. CME Group defines basis trading as the simultaneous holding of opposing spot and futures positions to create delta-neutral exposure, with returns arising from basis convergence rather than Bitcoin's price movement.

In practice, this means an institution can buy ETF shares and immediately sell Bitcoin futures or perpetual swaps.

The result resembles institutional demand in headline flow prints, while being economically closer to a carry book than a risk-on bet. The institution earns the spread between spot and futures prices as they converge, clipping an implied yield subject to margin and risk limits.

Related Reading

Bitcoin triggers $7B loss for ETF holders as price could drop to $65,000 while Strategy (MSTR) sits on billion dollar cushion

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Feb 2, 2026 · Oluwapelumi Adejumo

Five reasons inflows rise without dip buying

Cash-and-carry or basis trades represent the clearest example.

Going long ETF shares while shorting futures or perpetual swaps to achieve basis convergence generates flows that appear bullish, even as net delta exposure remains near zero.

Authorized participant arbitrage adds another layer. Creations and redemptions happen because the ETF traded away from net asset value, not because someone wants Bitcoin exposure.

The flow is the settlement artifact of a pricing discrepancy, not a bet.

Liquidity provision and inventory rebalancing create similar distortions. Market makers may issue shares to meet secondary market demand while hedging elsewhere. The flow appears, but the price support vanishes if the hedge offsets the spot buying.

Cross-venue hedging can directly offset spot buying pressure. Spot purchases to create ETF shares can be matched by futures selling or options hedges, reducing the “price floor” effect even with positive flow prints.

Balance sheet-constrained buyers, who dominate marginal demand, create fragility.

If the primary bid comes from a smaller set of carry players, inflows become episodic and vulnerable to risk-off conditions. This is Coutts' “not sustainable under continued pressure” thesis.

What the positioning data shows

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission's CME Bitcoin futures report shows large gross longs and shorts among non-commercial participants, with sizable spread positions.

That's consistent with systematic relative-value activity being present in the market, exactly what to expect if a meaningful portion of “institutional demand” is hedged rather than directional.

The Banque de France provides basis ranges and annualized equivalents that clarify the economics.

When the expected carry, calculated as futures basis minus financing cost, fees, and margin haircuts, is attractive and volatility remains stable, carry buyers scale the trade and ETF inflows rise.

When volatility spikes or margins increase, or when basis collapses, they de-risk, and flows can flip negative quickly.

This creates a forward-looking distinction. A genuine bottoming process would show basis compressing and futures shorts reducing through covering while ETF inflows persist.

That would signal that inflows are beginning to represent net delta demand rather than just carry.

A fake-out looks different: inflows persist but are matched by rising hedges in futures and perpetual swap markets.

The market gets flow headlines without durable spot support, and any renewed selling pressure forces an unwind.

Coutts' claim suggests the second scenario dominates until proven otherwise.

When inflows actually matter

The clearest test of whether inflows reflect conviction rather than carry is to examine what's happening in derivatives markets.

If ETF inflows are positive while hedges are unwinding, such as basis compresses, futures shorts, and spread positions fall, open interest behavior supports de-risking of carry books, then the inflows likely represent net new demand.

If inflows are positive while futures shorts build or remain elevated, open interest expands in ways consistent with hedging activity, and basis remains wide enough to justify the trade. The flows are plumbing, not positioning.

ETF premiums and discounts to net asset value offer another signal.

When the ETF trades close to NAV, creations are more likely to be mechanical inventory management or basis-trade execution rather than panic bottom-fishing by conviction buyers.

The Feb. 2 inflow of $561.8 million arrived after Bitcoin had already fallen below $73,000. The move pushed Bitcoin to its lowest level since the 2024 election, below its 2024 all-time high of $73,777.

Liquidations had hit $2.56 billion in recent days, according to CoinGlass data. Macro risk-off sentiment, driven by the Kevin Warsh Fed chair nomination and Microsoft's Azure growth disappointment, had soured broader markets.

In that context, a single day of positive flows doesn't prove buyers stepped in with conviction.

It proves that authorized participants created shares. Whether those shares represent directional exposure or the spot leg of a delta-neutral trade determines whether the flows provide price support or merely disguise carry activity as demand.

The sustainability question

Coutts' framing of the remaining demand as coming from a shrinking group of Treasury-style buyers with finite balance sheet capacity points to a structural limit.

Basis trades are balance sheet-intensive. Institutions running these strategies face margin requirements, leverage limits, and risk concentrations that constrain how much they can scale.

If the marginal bid comes from this group rather than from conviction-driven allocators, then each incremental dollar of inflow requires more capital and increases fragility.

A durable bottom likely requires a regime shift in which these actors reverse their positioning, not just slow their selling, and in which unhedged directional buyers return in size. Until then, positive flow days can coexist with continued price pressure.

The flows measure plumbing. The price measures whether anyone is actually buying the dip.

The post Bitcoin has ended its $1.5B outflow streak, yet the trade driving inflows could vanish under pressure appeared first on CryptoSlate.

Bitcoin is a $1.5 trillion prize pool secured by nothing more than numbers, private keys, generated by math, that unlock wallets holding real money.

That’s the seductive idea behind Keys.lol: a site that spits out batches of Bitcoin private keys and their corresponding addresses, like an infinite roll of digital lottery tickets.

Refresh the page, and you get another set. Refresh again, and you get another.

Somewhere in that endless stream is a key that matches a wallet with a balance, maybe even one holding a life-changing amount.

This is the only lottery where the game is real, and the jackpot exists, yet the odds are so extreme that “never” is the practical outcome.

The keyspace is so vast that even checking billions of addresses at a time doesn’t meaningfully move the needle; the chance of landing on a funded wallet is so close to zero that it effectively disappears.

Keys.lol feels like a shortcut to fortune, but what it actually demonstrates is the opposite: why Bitcoin wallets are secure, and why brute-force “guessing” isn’t a threat model so much as a lesson in how big numbers can get.

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Nov 7, 2022 · Soumen Datta

How to play the free Bitcoin lottery

Open the website. Hit refresh. Watch it spit out a new batch of 90 Bitcoin private keys and addresses, like scratchcards scrolling past at high speed.

It feels like a loophole in reality: if you can generate enough keys, fast enough, surely you’ll eventually land on one that already controls real BTC.

That temptation is exactly what Keys.lol is built to dramatize. The homepage claims “every Bitcoin private key” is on the site and encourages you to “try your luck.”

But the punchline is mathematical: yes, you can play, and no, you can’t win, at least not in any practical sense.

I'm not trying to advertise how to “hack Bitcoin.” It’s the opposite: a fun, slightly mind-melting way to understand why Bitcoin wallets are secure.

The space of possible keys and addresses is so large that “randomly guessing” is effectively impossible.

An unintended side effect is that refreshing for long enough may well cure your gambling addiction, too. The fun goes from “but what if I hit one?” to “yeah, this is impossible” pretty quickly.

Keys.lol turns keyspace into a game

Keys.lol doesn’t store a literal database of keys (that would be physically impossible). It generates keys procedurally on the fly based on a page number.

That means it can display deterministic slices of the keyspace without ever saving them.

In other words: it’s not a vault of stolen secrets. It’s a number generator with a balance checker and a casino vibe.

And if you’re refreshing random batches, say 90 addresses at a time, you’re essentially buying free lottery tickets against the entire Bitcoin address universe.

The math behind the impossible odds

A Bitcoin private key is basically a number in an astronomically large range. Keys.lol itself describes it as between 1 and (2^256).

But for this “lottery,” the practical target is addresses with a non-zero balance.

As of February 2026, there are 58 million BTC addresses with a non-zero balance. Let’s use that as the “number of winning tickets.”

Now compare it to the size of the space you’re sampling from.

A standard way to think about Bitcoin addresses is that they’re derived via hashing to a 160-bit value.

• (2^160) possible address-hash outcomes
• That’s about 1.46 × 10^48 possible destinations for “where BTC could be,” in address-space terms

Even if tens of millions are funded, that’s still a rounding error against 10^48.

So what are the odds per refresh?

If you sample addresses uniformly at random from the full space, the probability a single random address is one of the 58,000,000 non-zero ones is:

• p = 58,000,000 / 2^160 ≈ 3.97 × 10^-41

If you check 90 addresses in one go, your chance of finding at least one non-zero balance becomes:

• P(≥ 1) ≈ 90p ≈ 3.57 × 10^-39

That’s roughly:

• 1 in (2.8 × 10^38)

Written out, that’s:

1 in 280,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 (“280 undecillion.”)

A human way to feel “1 in 2.8×10^38”

Try this mental model:

Imagine you could do one billion refreshes per second (and each refresh checks 90 addresses).

The expected time to hit just one non-zero address would still be on the order of 10^12 years.

The age of the universe is ~10^10 years.

That’s about 10^12 times the age of the universe, or a trillion universe-lifetimes just to find a single funded address.

So you’re not “unlikely” to win. You’re functionally guaranteed not to on any timescale that matters.

How much harder than winning the lottery?

The EuroMillions jackpot odds are about 1 in 139,838,160; the US Powerball odds are 1 in 292,201,338.

Keys.lol's “90-address refresh finds a funded wallet” odds are about 1 in (2.8 × 10^38).

So EuroMillions is roughly:

• (2.8 × 10^38) / (1.398 × 10^8) ≈ 2 × 10^30

That’s about two nonillion times more likely than your refresh ever finding a non-zero address.

Put differently: you’d have a better chance of winning EuroMillions again and again and again than hitting a funded BTC address by random key generation.

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This is why Bitcoin wallets are secure

The entire security model of Bitcoin ownership is built on one simple idea:

Even if everyone on Earth used every computer they could possibly build, guessing someone else’s private key is still computationally and probabilistically out of reach.

Keys.lol is compelling because it makes the impossible feel tangible. You’re looking at real-looking keys and real-looking addresses and hoping for a miracle.

But Bitcoin doesn’t rely on secrecy through obscurity. It relies on the sheer scale of the keyspace.

The “attack” you’re simulating, random guessing, isn’t a threat model. It’s a lesson in large numbers.

If you ever “hit” a funded key, it’s theft, not a free jackpot

There’s a reason this “free Bitcoin lottery” is such a useful teaching tool: it exposes the difference between possible in theory and permissible in real life.

If you were to generate a private key that corresponds to a wallet with funds, and then try to “sweep” those coins, you wouldn’t be claiming abandoned treasure.

You’d be taking assets you don’t own, without consent. In plain terms: it’s theft.

Even framing it as “luck” doesn’t change what’s happening. The private key is simply the credential that proves control.

Discovering someone else’s credentials doesn’t grant you ownership any more than finding a stranger’s bank card PIN would.

And there’s a second, subtler risk: trying to turn this into a get-rich scheme can expose you to legal consequences.

Whether it’s prosecuted as theft, fraud, unauthorized access, or another offense depends on the jurisdiction. But the core point is the same: “I guessed it” is not a defense, and “finders keepers” doesn’t apply to digital property.

So yes, Keys.lol is a fascinating window into Bitcoin’s security model. But the only “win condition” here is understanding the math, not trying to cash out someone else’s balance.

“Mathematically never” is still annoying for bots, so Keys.lol adds friction anyway

Even though the odds of finding a funded wallet are so tiny they round to zero for any practical human timeline, Keys.lol still throws up bot protection.

Click “Random page” too aggressively, and you can be redirected to an “Are you human?” captcha.

In other words: even the site itself assumes someone, somewhere, will try to automate refreshes at scale, and it actively tries to slow that down.

That doesn’t make Bitcoin “more secure” (the security comes from the size of the keyspace). But it does make this particular game harder to industrialize.

It’s a reminder that brute-force behavior is expected, and throttled, even when the underlying math already makes success effectively impossible.

The “expected reward” of a refresh (and why the fun math is misleading)

Let’s do some back-of-the-napkin maths anyway.

The average non-zero wallet holds about 0.126 BTC, and we can value that at roughly $9,852 today, then the arithmetic is:

• $9,852 ÷ 58,000,000 ≈ $0.0001362069
• That’s about $1 per 9,852 in this simplified framing.

But here’s the catch: that calculation quietly assumes each refresh is picking from the set of funded wallets.

In reality, you’re sampling from the full address universe. The microscopic part is the chance of landing on any of those 58 million non-zero addresses at all.

Once you include that probability, the true expected value collapses to essentially zero.

Using today’s BTC price (~$78,195), 0.126 BTC is about $9,852.

But the expected value per 90-address refresh is still only about:

• $3.5 × 10^-35 per refresh

That’s the kind of number where “expected $1” would require roughly 2.8 × 10^34 refreshes on average.

Bitcoin’s market cap is currently around $1.5T on major trackers (it fluctuates daily).

That headline number is what makes the “free lottery” feel so seductive: a giant pool of value, sitting behind “just a number.”

But the lock is better than anything physical, it is built on cold, hard math.

Play the lottery on the first page of Bitcoin private and public keys.

The post The trillion dollar Bitcoin lottery you can play now for free – but will never win appeared first on CryptoSlate.

Bitcoin fell around 8% on Feb. 3, briefly losing the $73,000 level.

A quick rebound took prices to $74,500 as of press time, dampening the intraday correction to 5.8%. The decline marks the lowest price point in the President Donald Trump administration and the weakest level since the November 2024 Presidential Election.

The selloff pushed Bitcoin as low as its March 2024 all-time high of $73,500, a level that held through the early stages of the decline but ultimately gave way under sustained selling pressure.

The move revived a cluster of support zones that traders have monitored as critical technical thresholds for nearly a year.

Macro risk-off drives crypto lower

The crypto weakness is linked to broad risk-off sentiment across markets, sparked by Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve chair.

Warsh's selection stoked concerns about a more hawkish policy mix and tighter financial conditions, pressures that historically weigh on high-beta assets, including cryptocurrencies. A stronger dollar, which typically accompanies such expectations, compounds the headwind for digital assets. The current dollar weakness, however, makes this decline even more painful.

Microsoft's Azure growth disappointment added to the selling pressure, souring broader risk sentiment and triggering cross-asset contagion.

The AI trade wobble demonstrated how crypto remains vulnerable to spillover effects from growth-sensitive technology sectors, particularly when positioning is stretched and liquidity is thin.

Leverage unwind amplifies decline

CoinGlass data shows over $2.5 billion in Bitcoin liquidations in recent days, turning what began as a macro-driven selloff into a cascade of forced selling.

Thin weekend liquidity exacerbated the selloff that began at $84,000 on Saturday, according to a Bitfinex note.

The combination of macro triggers and leverage unwinding created conditions in which relatively modest initial selling pressure could force far larger moves, as stop-losses and margin calls compounded the decline.

Additionally, institutional flows in 2026 have been uneven.

Exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows, often followed by outflows during volatility episodes, suggest tactical rebalancing rather than aggressive dip-buying, leaving prices exposed as liquidation pressure accelerates.

The absence of consistent institutional demand meant there was no meaningful buffer when forced selling began.

Galaxy Digital research also noted that near-term catalysts appear scarce, with diminished odds of legislative progress on market structure acting as a narrative headwind.

Without clear positive drivers on the horizon, traders lack the conviction to step in aggressively during drawdowns.

Critical support and resistance levels

Bitcoin now trades within a tightly watched technical range.

The $73,500 level from 2024 and the Feb. 3 intraday low of $72,945 form the immediate support zone.

IG Markets identifies a broader support band between $73,581 and $76,703, an area associated with prior cycle highs and 2025 lows that has been tested multiple times over the past year.

CryptoSlate also identified several support and resistance levels for 2026 in Akiba's bear market analysis.

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A daily close below this band would increase the probability of follow-through selling toward the next support cluster between $72,757 and $71,725. If that zone fails to hold, the July 2024 peak of around $70,041 becomes the next major downside waypoint.

On the resistance side, Bitcoin's reclamation of the 2024 all-time high of $73,500 indicates that buyers are willing to defend the recent breakdown level. The April 2025 trough zone around $74,508 now acts as resistance after previously serving as support.

Above that, minor resistance sits at $78,300, with the November 2025 low of $80,620 and the psychological $80,000 level forming the next meaningful barrier.

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Jan 30, 2026 · Liam 'Akiba' Wright

Distinguishing bounce from recovery

A single-day rebound does not constitute a durable bottom.

Historical patterns suggest that sustainable recoveries typically require at least two conditions: repeated daily closes above the $74,500 level, converting the April 2025 reference zone from resistance to support, and evidence that liquidation pressure has faded following the $2.56 billion forced-selling wave.

Without these confirmations, rallies risk becoming dead-cat bounces into overhead resistance as sellers use strength to exit positions.

ETF flows must stabilize beyond isolated green days, consistent with the tactical rather than aggressive institutional behavior.

Two near-term scenarios

If Bitcoin holds the $73,000 to $73,445 support zone and reclaims $74,500, the path of least resistance becomes a grind toward $78,300, then the $80,000 to $80,620 range.

This scenario requires both technical follow-through and the absence of new macroeconomic headwinds.

Alternatively, a daily close below the $73,581 lower band increases the odds of continuation selling into the $72,757 to $71,725 zone, with the $70,000 level as the next major psychological and technical waypoint.

This scenario becomes more likely if liquidation pressure remains elevated or if macro conditions deteriorate further.

Bitcoin's decline below its 2024 all-time high after nearly a year of holding that level as support constitutes a technical breakdown, shifting the burden of proof to buyers.

The combination of macro risk-off sentiment, leverage unwinding, and tactical institutional flows created conditions in which support levels that had held for months gave way within hours.

The post Bitcoin in freefall hitting lowest price since Trump took office as leverage turns a macro wobble into a brutal cascade appeared first on CryptoSlate.

The euphoria of October’s record highs has evaporated, leaving the industrial backbone of the Bitcoin network facing a brutal reality check.

According to CryptoSlate's data, Bitcoin is currently trading near $78,000, a level that represents a punishing decline of more than 38% from its all-time high of over $126,000 just four months ago.

While casual observers might see a standard market correction, the view from inside the mines is far more dire. The steep drop in the flagship digital asset's price has collided with stubbornly high network difficulty and rising energy costs to create a perfect storm for operators.

Analytics firm CryptoQuant recently described miners as “extremely underpaid,” given the current combination of depressed prices and difficulty, with its profit-and-loss sustainability index slumping to 21. That is the lowest reading since late 2024.

Notably, the financial strain is already causing machines to go offline, resulting in Bitcoin’s total hashrate declining by about 12% since last November, the steepest drawdown since the China mining ban in 2021. This has left the network at its weakest level since September 2025.

For a system that sells itself as the most secure computer network in the world, this is more than just a bear-market story. It is a stress test of Bitcoin’s security model at a moment when miners have better-paying alternatives than ever before.

Bitcoin miners' capitulation maths

Bitcoin’s security relies on a simple incentive structure in which the network pays a fixed block subsidy plus transaction fees to whoever solves the next block.

When prices were above $126,000 in October, the “security budget” was sufficient to cover inefficiencies. However, the margin for error has vanished as prices have crashed under $80,000.

New figures from the mining pool f2pool illustrate how severe the revenue compression has become.

On its Feb. 2 hardware electricity cost dashboard, the pool estimates Bitcoin’s price at around $76,176, network hashrate at near 890 exahashes per second (EH/s), and daily revenue at about $0.034 per terahash for miners paying $0.06 per kilowatt-hour.

To put that in perspective, Luxor Technology’s Hashrate Index recorded spot hashprice near $39 per petahash per second (PH/s) per day only a few months prior.

That figure was already thin by historical standards before falling toward an all-time low of around $35 as of press time.

The current f2pool figure of $0.034 per terahash, equivalent to $34 per PH/s, confirms that miners are operating at the historical floor.

When those economics are mapped onto individual machines, it becomes clear why hashrate is falling.

At a reference Bitcoin price of $75,000 and the same six-cent power cost, electricity accounts for about 52% of revenue for Bitmain’s newest Antminer S21 XP Hydro units, which combine roughly 473 TH/s of hashpower with 5,676 watts of draw. Those are the best numbers available.

As the efficiency curve worsens, the math turns red. Mid-generation rigs, such as an Antminer S19 XP or an Avalon A1466i, exhibit electricity cost rates of approximately 92%-100% at that price point.

Meanwhile, older or less efficient models, including the Avalon A1366, Whatsminer M50S, and S19 Pro lines, show electricity cost rates ranging from approximately 109% to 162%.

In plain English, this means that at $75,000 Bitcoin and a mainstream power tariff, vast fleets of hardware are mining at a cash loss before even accounting for debt, hosting fees, or general expenses.

The AI escape hatch

This current revenue crash differs from previous crypto winters because the miners' distressed assets, like power contracts and grid connections, have a new, deep-pocketed suitor.

The same infrastructure that enables Bitcoin mining is precisely what hyperscale AI compute requires. And unlike the struggling Bitcoin network, AI infrastructure providers are willing to pay up.

The former mining operation CoreWeave has become emblematic of this shift. It pivoted from crypto to become a specialist “neocloud” for AI workloads and recently secured a $2 billion equity investment from Nvidia to accelerate its data center buildout.

In 2025, it sought to acquire miner Core Scientific in a multibillion-dollar deal, explicitly framing miners’ sites and power contracts as prime real estate for GPUs rather than ASICs.

Other public Bitcoin miners have taken the hint and are pivoting hard towards AI. For example, Canadian operator Hut 8 recently signed a 15-year, 245-megawatt AI data center lease at its River Bend campus, with a stated contract value of approximately $7 billion.

This deal effectively locks in long-term economics that differ markedly from the volatility of mining rewards.

For shareholders, these pivots offer a rational exit from the bleeding caused by the 30% price drop. They can swap cyclical Bitcoin revenues for contracted AI cash flows that investors currently value at a premium.

For the Bitcoin network, however, this raises a more difficult question: what happens when a component of its security infrastructure discovers a business that offers higher compensation?

Bitcoin's network security budget under siege

Jeff Feng, co-founder of Sei Labs, called the current period “the biggest bitcoin miner capitulation since 2021,” arguing that large miners pivoting to AI compute are amplifying the drawdown.

The key difference from prior cycles is that some of this hash isn’t just powering down until the price recovers. It is being reallocated permanently.

Once a 245 MW site is fully re-racked for AI under a long-term lease, that power is, in practice, unavailable for future hashrate expansion.

Make no mistake, Bitcoin remains extremely secure in absolute terms. Even after recent declines, the cost of amassing sufficient hashpower to attack the network remains immense.

However, the concern is about direction and composition rather than immediate collapse. A sustained decline in hashrate lowers the marginal cost of attacking.

With less honest hash online, it takes fewer resources to acquire a disruptive share of the network’s compute, whether through renting capacity or building it outright.

This trend also narrows the base of stakeholders paid to defend the chain. If older, higher-cost operators exit and only a handful of ultra-efficient miners remain profitable, control over block production becomes increasingly centralized.

This creates a fragility that is masked by the headline hashrate numbers.

So, CryptoQuant’s “extremely underpaid” label is effectively a warning that, at today’s block rewards and fees, a meaningful slice of industrial hash is operating on thin or negative margins.

It serves as a forward indicator of how robust the network’s security budget really is relative to competing uses of capital and electricity.

How will Bitcoin miners survive?

From here, the miner squeeze could influence Bitcoin’s evolution in several distinct ways.

One path is quiet consolidation. Difficulty resets, the most efficient operators capture a larger share of block production, and hashrate grows more slowly than in previous cycles but remains large enough that few outside specialists notice.

For investors, the primary effect is volatility, as each market drawdown compresses a narrower group of miners, thereby increasing their selling and hedging behavior.

Another path would accelerate Bitcoin's transition to fee-driven security faster than the halving schedule alone implies. If subsidies remain light relative to AI returns, the ecosystem may have to rely more on transaction fees to keep miners fully engaged.

That could mean greater focus on high-value settlement at the base layer, more activity on second-layer systems, and a wider acceptance that block space is a scarce resource rather than a cheap commodity.

A third, more speculative path would see external backstops become explicit. This would mean that the same institutions that normalized spot Bitcoin ETFs might eventually view the security budget as they view bank capital ratios, as something that can require deliberate support.

That could take the form of higher fees for certain transaction classes, industry-funded incentives for miners, or scrutiny of AI conversions that materially dent hashrate in key regions.

Notably, none of those outcomes would require a break with Bitcoin’s core design. All involve the industry deciding, in a more crowded energy market, how much it is prepared to pay to keep hash on the network rather than in GPU clusters.

At present, the f2pool dashboard provides a snapshot of that negotiation. A system with about 890 exahashes per second of compute and a price of approximately $76,000 is paying roughly 3.5 cents per terahash per day for its security.

Whether future energy investments accept that rate or demand something closer to AI economics will determine how the mining market ultimately pivots.

The post Bitcoin mining revenue hits historic low as infrastructure is sold to AI giants permanently altering the network’s security appeared first on CryptoSlate.

Bitcoin supply guide: cost-basis bands, miner stress, and ETF flow signals

Bitcoin is currently trading outside a $93,000–$110,000 cost-basis band that Glassnode frames as an “overhead supply” zone.

That setup puts the next quarter’s supply story on miner cash flow and holder behavior rather than the issuance schedule. According to Glassnode’s Week On-chain W02 2026, the Short-Term Holder (STH) cost basis sits near $98,300.

That level often becomes a reference point for whether recent buyers add exposure or distribute into rebounds.

At the same time, mining markets are pricing a lean profitability regime.

The Hashrate Index roundup dated Jan. 26, 2026 put the six-month hashprice forward curve at about $33.25 per PH/s per day (about 0.00041 BTC), below the zone it has described as breakeven for many miners ($39.50) depending on operating costs and machine types.

Related CryptoSlate context: miner-stress narratives often hinge on the same profitability/difficulty loop described in Bitcoin’s hashrate continues to fall as the price spike doesn’t convince miners to turn machines back on.

This quarter’s additional variable is whether ETF flows act as a sink for tradable supply or a release valve.

SoSoValue data recorded $681 million in net outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs in the first full trading week of 2026, in a risk-off setup tied to rate expectations and macro headlines. Last week, net flows reached -$1.3 billion, the worst week since May 2025.

For additional CryptoSlate reporting context on that same early-2026 flow regime, see Bitcoin breaking $126,000 has clear 3 year pathway but a brutal $1.3 billion exodus changes everything today.

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Key takeaways

• Bitcoin’s issuance schedule is fixed by the protocol, with a 21 million cap and reward halvings every 210,000 blocks. Near-term “supply shocks” tend to come from tradable float and incentives, according to Blockchain.com’s supply chart.
• Glassnode places current overhead supply between $93,000 and $110,000, with the STH cost basis around $98,300. That range becomes a demand-absorption test for the quarter, according to Glassnode W02 2026.
• Hashrate and difficulty already adjusted to stress, with the 7-day SMA hashrate moving from 1,003 EH/s to 966 EH/s and difficulty falling 3.28% to 141.67T on Jan. 22, according to Hashrate Index (Jan. 26, 2026). For background, see Bitcoin hashrate hits new high of 943 EH/s as difficulty adjusted down 0.45%.
• Mining forwards implying roughly $39.50/PH/s/day over six months keeps attention on miner treasury management and shutdown risk. “Breakeven” depends on opex and fleet efficiency, according to Hashrate Index.
• ETF flow direction remains a swing factor after such a terrible month to start the year, with $1 billion in net outflows.

Who this is for

• Long-term allocators tracking cohort supply, cost-basis bands, and maturation dynamics
• Swing traders focused on the STH cost basis and overhead supply reactions
• Institutional desks monitoring ETF flow regimes and miner-driven liquidity
• Mining and infra operators managing hashprice exposure and difficulty timing

What to watch this quarter

• Price behavior around the STH cost basis near $98,300 and regaining its place inside the $93,000–$110,000 overhead band (Glassnode W02 2026)
• Six-month hashprice expectations recovering to near $39.50/PH/s/day and spot hashprice divergence from the curve (Hashrate Index)
• Difficulty adjustment cadence following the Jan. 22, 3.28% drop to 141.67T (Hashrate Index).
• Venue flow mix, including Glassnode’s note that Binance and aggregate exchange flows shifted into buy-dominant regimes while Coinbase sell pressure eased (Glassnode W02 2026)
• Weekly spot Bitcoin ETF net flows after $1.3 billion outflows last week.

Issuance basics + halving (what is fixed vs what is variable)

Bitcoin’s total supply path is deterministic at the protocol layer, with a maximum of 21 million BTC and block-subsidy halvings every 210,000 blocks.

That constraint matters for long-horizon valuation and for quarter-to-quarter issuance math. New supply enters on a schedule the market can model.

The more immediate question for the next quarter is market-available supply.

That means the inventory that can reach spot venues through miner sales, holder distribution, and ETF creations or redemptions. This is where “supply shocks” often form, since the issuance curve is known while liquidity decisions are conditional.

Most quarter-scale volatility maps to the second.

Miner economics & sell pressure (why hashprice is the live supply lever)

Mining acts as an elastic supply lever because miner BTC sales are one of the few structural sources of recurring distribution.

That elasticity was visible in late January. Hashrate Index reported the 7-day SMA hashrate fell from 1,003 EH/s to 966 EH/s, and network difficulty adjusted down 3.28% to 141.67T on Jan. 22.

Forward markets also imply constrained miner margins.

The same roundup reported the hashprice forward curve pricing an average of about $33.25 per PH/s per day over the next six months. Hashrate Index has separately described $39–$40/PH/s/day as near breakeven for many miners, while stressing it varies by operating costs and machine model.

A forward-looking frame for this quarter uses three conditional paths grounded in those data points:

• Near-breakeven grind: If hashprice recovers near the forward-implied ~$33.25/PH/s/day, higher-cost fleets face tighter treasury conditions.
• That can translate into periodic hashrate dips and episodic spot selling to fund operations, according to Hashrate Index.
• Difficulty-driven relief: If hashrate weakens further, subsequent difficulty reductions can lift revenue per unit hash even with flat BTC price.
• That reduces forced selling at the margin, as the Jan. 22 adjustment illustrates.
• Macro-driven compression: If a broader risk-off move pressures BTC price while hashprice sits near breakeven, shutdowns can accelerate.
• That feeds the same difficulty-relief loop with uncertain timing.

Miner balance sheet policy can shift realized sell pressure within a quarter.

Related CryptoSlate miner-stress framing: Bitcoin faces potential miner capitulation as hash rate continues to drop.

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Long-term vs short-term holders (where overhead supply actually comes from)

Glassnode’s current map frames the supply overhang as a cost-basis band rather than a single price.

In Week On-chain W02 2026, it described the market as testing supply spanning approximately $93,000–$110,000, while placing the STH cost basis at $98,300.

For this quarter, that framing matters because it defines where prior buyers may use rallies to exit.

It also defines where new demand must absorb inventory to avoid renewed distribution.

Holder behavior has softened versus late 2025 without flipping into accumulation.

Glassnode said Long-Term Holder (LTH) supply continues to trend lower, while the rate of decline slowed materially compared with the distribution seen throughout Q3 and Q4 2025. It also put LTH net realized profit near 12.8k BTC per week, down from cycle peaks above 100k BTC per week.

The regime-change condition Glassnode identifies for a more durable rally is a shift where maturation supply outpaces LTH spending.

That would push LTH supply higher. In quarter terms, the overhead band can clear only if selling pressure decelerates faster than new and returning demand.

One technical caveat matters when readers compare dashboards.

Glassnode’s supply endpoints do not treat 155 days as a hard cutoff. Its cohorts use a logistic weighting centered at 155 days with a 10-day transition width.

Common myths (supply narratives that fail under measurement)

• Myth: The halving creates immediate scarcity in tradable supply. Issuance changes are block-based and known, while quarter-scale supply pressure is often driven by miner profitability and holder distribution decisions.
• Myth: 155 days is a strict boundary for LTH classification. Glassnode’s supply cohorts use a logistic weighting centered at 155 days with a 10-day transition width, which affects interpretation near inflection points.
• Myth: Miner capitulation is a single event. The hashrate and difficulty system can ratchet down and then normalize profitability per unit hash, as seen in the Jan. 22 difficulty reduction following a hashrate decline.

Metrics dashboard (the minimum set to monitor for the next 6 months)

Red flags & invalidation

• Any claim that exchange balances are “down X% recently” without a current-dated dataset should be treated as invalid.
• “Breakeven hashprice” should remain conditional on opex and hardware, since Hashrate Index frames $39–$40/PH/s/day as near breakeven for many miners depending on those inputs.

Action checklist, monitoring routine

• Weekly: Record ETF net flow sign and magnitude after the -$681 million outflow week, using SoSoValue-linked reporting for comparability.
• Each difficulty epoch: Track whether difficulty continues to fall after Jan. 22’s 3.28% reduction, and compare with hashrate direction for miner stress context.
• Daily/rolling: Compare spot hashprice to the six-month forward average near $33.25/PH/s/day to gauge whether miners face tightening or relief.
• Regime check: Track whether LTH supply remains net declining or turns up under Glassnode’s “maturation exceeds spending” condition.
• Price context: Observe market reactions around $98,300 and within $93,000–$110,000, since those levels map to STH and overhead supply cost basis in the current Glassnode framing.

Those inputs should be tied back to the fixed Bitcoin issuance schedule.

The post Bitcoin supply guide: When holders sell, miners strain, and ETFs add pressure appeared first on CryptoSlate.

The Incognito Market operator extorted vendors by threatening to publish their transaction histories and crypto addresses.

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Fragile momentum and macro uncertainty are keeping Bitcoin and the broader crypto market at risk of further declines, analysts say.

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Some layer-2 networks have made concessions when it comes to decentralization, Buterin said, and shouldn’t be “branded” as extensions of Ethereum.

Dogecoin creator has reacted to Michael Saylor's fresh Satoshi Bitcoin statement.

Charles Hoskinson asks for input from community for next Cardano update regarding Logan.

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Nouriel Roubini, the economist famously known as "Dr. Doom," has predicted a "catastrophic end" for the cryptocurrency industry.

Market is ready for a recovery, but it is unlikely to be a long-term retrace.

TLDR:

• Bitcoin’s power-law z-score at -0.69 indicates 38.2% discount from $122,681 mathematical trend value
• ETF outflows accelerated 265% to $15.25 billion in 30 days, driving persistent mechanical selling
• Open interest dropped 21.6% alongside 19.5% price decline, signaling deleveraging not panic selling
• Maximum gamma at $75K creates price compression with call wall at $90K and flip level at $71K
  

Bitcoin trades at $76,337 as of writing while mathematical models place its trend value at $122,681, creating a 38.2% discount that stems from mechanical deleveraging rather than fundamental weakness.

Data analyst David highlights this gap between short-term price formation driven by exchange-traded fund flows and long-run anchors determined by fixed supply and production costs.

The power-law z-score stands at -0.69, suggesting the asset trades significantly below its statistical trend despite unchanged underlying fundamentals.

ETF Outflows Drive Persistent Price Pressure

The primary catalyst behind Bitcoin’s current price weakness appears through exchange-traded fund activity.

Estimated net outflows reached $15.25 billion over the past 30 days, representing a 265% acceleration in redemptions. Trading volume remains at 0.8 times normal levels, indicating sustained rather than panicked selling pressure.

David explains that “this is how a scarce asset gets pushed below its ‘map’ without a dramatic capitulation.” The flow remains persistent but measured, avoiding the high-volume liquidation cascades typical of market crashes. Spot trading volume corresponds with gradual position unwinding rather than forced selling.

The distinction matters because mechanical selling creates different market dynamics than sentiment-driven crashes.

Exchange-traded fund investors can redeem shares steadily without triggering the feedback loops that amplify volatility. This steady pressure pushes price lower while maintaining relatively orderly market conditions.

Traditional panic selling typically accompanies volume spikes and accelerating price declines. Current market behavior shows neither characteristic, suggesting the selling pressure stems from portfolio rebalancing or institutional allocation shifts.

The absence of volatility expansion supports this interpretation of gradual rather than distressed selling.

Derivative Positioning Reveals Compression Dynamics

Open interest declined 21.6% over 30 days while price dropped 19.5%, producing a positive correlation of 0.66 between the two metrics.

David notes that “when price falls with collapsing open interest, you’re not seeing panic. You’re seeing balance sheets quietly shrink.” This synchronized decline indicates deleveraging rather than new short positions accumulating.

The paper-to-spot ratio stands at just 1.9%, reflecting reduced derivative activity relative to underlying asset trading. Options market structure shows net gamma exposure at negative $43 million, near neutral territory.

Maximum gamma concentrates at the $75,000 strike, creating a gravitational effect around current prices.

Put walls sit at $75,000 approximately 1.3% below spot, while call walls emerge at $90,000 roughly 18.5% higher. The gamma flip level appears at $70,999, about 6.5% below current trading levels.

David observes that “price feels ‘stuck’ because hedging flows are absorbing movement near the strike. Not because demand disappeared.”

The analyst emphasizes the asymmetric setup this creates, stating that “downside needs the persistent seller to keep selling. Upside mostly needs the seller to stop.”

The derivative structure adds friction to large moves in either direction until flow patterns shift materially or positioning constraints change substantially.

The post Bitcoin’s $47K Discount: Why Math Shows $123K Target While Price Sits at $76K appeared first on Blockonomi.

TLDR

• Total daily net inflow across XRP ETFs reached $19.46 million, with cumulative net inflow at $1.20 billion.
• XRPC ETF on NASDAQ saw no daily inflow, with assets totaling $296.59 million, representing 0.30% of XRP’s share.
• The XRP ETF, sponsored by Bitwise on NYSE, had a daily net inflow of $4.82 million, with assets of $272.38 million.
• The XRPZ ETF reported a daily inflow of $12.13 million, with assets at $246.85 million and a +0.11% daily change.
• The GXRP ETF had a negative daily change of -0.14%, with a net inflow of $2.51 million and assets of $195.42 million.

According to a SoSoValue update as of February 3, the total daily net inflow across XRP ETFs stood at $19.46 million. This brings the cumulative total net inflow to $1.20 billion. The total value traded on the day amounted to $49.17 million, with the total net assets reaching $1.11 billion, representing 1.13% of XRP’s market cap.

XRPC and TOXR ETFs Record No Change in Daily Flows

The XRP ETFs on the market showed various levels of performance. A look at individual XRP ETFs reveals that XRPC ETF, listed on NASDAQ and sponsored by Canary, saw no change in daily inflow with a cumulative net inflow of $405.41 million.

The fund’s assets amounted to $296.59 million, and it represented 0.30% of XRP’s market share. Its market price stood at $17.19, with a daily change of +0.23%. The value traded reached $3.99 million, with daily volume hitting 236.96K shares.

The TOXR ETF, listed on CBOE and sponsored by 21Shares, saw a positive change of +1.61%. Despite no inflow or outflow, the ETF has had a cumulative net inflow of $314.54 million and assets of $195.42 million, representing 0.25% of XRP’s share. The market price was $15.81, showing a +0.51% daily change. The value traded was $1.08 million, with 70.67K shares traded on the day.

XRPZ, GXRP, and XRP ETFs Reports Inflows

XRP on the NYSE, sponsored by Bitwise, experienced a daily net inflow of $4.82 million. Its total assets amounted to $272.38 million, representing 0.28% of XRP’s share. The fund’s market price was $18.07. The value traded reached $24.94 million, with a daily volume of 1.42 million shares.

The XRPZ ETF, listed on the NYSE and sponsored by Franklin, reported a daily inflow of $12.13 million. The ETF’s assets amounted to $246.85 million, or 0.25% of XRP’s share. Its market price was $17.57, reflecting a +0.11% daily change. This ETF saw $8.11 million in value traded, with a daily volume of 471.62K shares.

Finally, the GXRP ETF, listed on the NYSE and sponsored by Grayscale, had a negative daily change of -0.14%. It recorded a net inflow of $2.51 million, bringing total assets to $195.42 million. The ETF’s market price was $31.33, up 0.16% on the day. The total value traded was $11.04 million, and daily volume was 361.40K shares.

The post XRP ETFs Report $19.46M Daily Inflow as Total Assets Hit $1.11B appeared first on Blockonomi.

TLDR:

• Binance recorded 56,000-59,000 BTC inflows on February 2-3, marking the largest deposits since January started. 
• Short-term holders transferred 54,000 BTC at a loss on February 2nd, signaling panic selling at $74,000 support. 
• Institutional supply of 155,000 BTC sits underwater between $85K-$95K, creating potential distribution resistance. 
• Analysts forecast Bitcoin decline to $50,000 by Q2 2025 following anticipated bounce to $85,000-$95,000 range.

Bitcoin’s recent price correction has triggered significant movement of coins to exchanges, with Binance recording its highest inflows since January began.

Between February 2nd and 3rd, the leading exchange received between 56,000 and 59,000 BTC as the cryptocurrency traded near the critical $74,000 support level.

This accumulation of coins on exchanges typically signals potential selling pressure, raising concerns among market participants about near-term price direction and the sustainability of the current trend.

Panic Selling Emerges at Critical Technical Level

The substantial inflows to Binance occurred as Bitcoin tested a pivotal price zone around $74,000. A sustained breakdown below this threshold would challenge the asset’s long-term upward trajectory.

The timing of these transfers reflects growing anxiety among certain investors who moved their holdings to exchanges in anticipation of further declines.

Binance continues to dominate cryptocurrency trading volumes globally. This position naturally makes it the primary destination for coins during periods of market stress.

The exchange absorbed the majority of selling pressure during this window, according to data shared by analyst Darkfost on X.

Short-term holders demonstrated particularly reactive behavior during this phase. On February 2nd alone, approximately 54,000 BTC were transferred at a loss by this cohort.

These investors, known for sensitivity to price fluctuations, contributed meaningfully to the overall flow of coins reaching exchanges.

The selling activity, while substantial, aligns proportionally with the scale of observed transfers. Market observers note this pattern often accompanies capitulation phases where oversold conditions emerge.

Such periods have historically created opportunities for price stabilization and potential reversal formations across various timeframes.

Bearish Outlook Points to Extended Downside Risk

Some analysts maintain a decidedly negative outlook for Bitcoin’s near-term trajectory. DeFi researcher Sherlock projects significant downside potential, forecasting an eventual decline toward $50,000 by the second quarter of 2025.

His analysis centers on an anticipated bounce to the $85,000-$95,000 range before resumption of the downtrend.

The analyst identifies approximately 155,000 BTC in institutional holdings acquired between October and December within that price band.

These positions currently sit underwater and may represent substantial resistance if prices recover to those levels. Such supply overhang could trigger what he describes as a major distribution event.

Technical indicators support this cautious stance. The daily Quantum Volume Weighted Average Price, yearly open, and January’s point of control all converge around $85,000-$95,000.

This confluence of resistance levels creates formidable barriers to upward movement, according to the assessment shared publicly.

The forecast suggests any relief rally will serve primarily to trap buyers before continuation lower. Initial targets include $65,000, followed by the $50,000 level within months.

This scenario represents a sharp departure from recent expectations of six-figure valuations and reflects deteriorating technical structure across multiple timeframes.

The post Bitcoin Selling Pressure Intensifies as Binance Records Massive Inflows Amid Price Correction appeared first on Blockonomi.

The digital asset market is moving through a period of deep change as February 2026 begins. For a long time, the old giants of the industry have dominated the charts. But lately, their path has become much harder to predict. 

Many holders are asking if the famous names from the last few years can still deliver the same growth as before. While the market cools, a quiet rotation of capital is happening. Investors are no longer just looking for safety in large names. They are hunting for new crypto projects that offer utility and cheap entry points.

Cardano (ADA)

Cardano (ADA) has always been known for its slow and steady peer-reviewed approach to development. However, this careful pace is now being tested by a fast-moving market. Currently, ADA is trading at approximately $0.30, with a market capitalization of roughly $8.8 billion. This is a far cry from its former glory days when it was a top-three contender.

Technically, Cardano is facing heavy resistance. The charts show strong ceilings at $0.35 and $0.40. Until the bulls can push past these levels with high volume, the trend remains weak. Some analysts have issued a bad price prediction for the rest of 2026. They suggest that if ADA cannot hold its current floor, it could drop as low as $0.18. 

Ripple (XRP)

Ripple (XRP) remains a staple for institutional cross-border payments, but its price action has been painful for retail holders lately. XRP is currently trading around $1.60, having fallen from much higher levels just a month ago. Its market cap sits at a massive $100 billion, which means it needs billions of dollars in new money just to see a small percentage gain.

XRP is trapped under heavy resistance at the $1.75 and $1.80 marks. Every time the price nears these zones, large sellers seem to step in. A recent bad price prediction from some market models warns that XRP could slip back to $1.10 if global liquidity remains tight. The lack of native yield for simple holders is another issue. 

Mutuum Finance (MUTM)

As capital flows out of ADA and XRP, Mutuum Finance (MUTM) is emerging as a top crypto opportunity for that money. This new protocol is developing a decentralized lending and borrowing protocol built on the Ethereum network. It aims to replace traditional services with transparent smart contracts. The project has built its funding through a structured distribution phase that has been incredibly successful.

To date, Mutuum Finance has raised over $20.2 million and onboarded more than 19,000 holders. The project uses a fixed-price model that rewards early participation. It is currently in Phase 7, with the token priced at $0.04. This is a 300% increase from its starting point of $0.01 in early 2025. 

With a total supply of 4 billion tokens and exactly 45.5% (1.82 billion) set aside for the presale community, it has a much better growth profile than the older giants. The official launch price is confirmed at $0.06, giving current participants a clear advantage. Over 840M MUTM are already sold out.

Protocol Momentum and Growth Catalysts

The biggest news for Mutuum Finance is the official launch of its V1 protocol on the Sepolia testnet. This move proves the technology is functional and ready for use. A core part of this engine is the mtToken system. 

When you deposit assets like ETH or USDT into the protocol, you receive mtTokens as a receipt. These are yield-bearing assets. As borrowers pay interest, the value of your mtTokens grows relative to the original deposit. This allows lenders to earn a passive return without any extra work.

The protocol also uses decentralized oracles like Chainlink to ensure price data is always accurate. This is vital for managing loans and protecting user collateral. Based on this technical progress, many analysts believe MUTM is undervalued. Some price predictions suggest the token could reach $0.35 to $0.55 by late 2026. This would be a massive increase compared to the stagnant performance of ADA and XRP.

Stability and Sustainable Growth

Mutuum Finance (MUTM) is built for the long term. The official whitepaper highlights a buy-and-distribute mechanism to support MUTM’s value. A portion of the protocol’s revenue is used to buy MUTM tokens from the open market. These tokens are then given back to users who participate in the staking. This creates a cycle of constant demand that older coins like XRP do not have.

The roadmap also includes a native, over-collateralized stablecoin. This will give borrowers a stable asset to use while their collateral earns yield. This is important because it makes the protocol a complete financial hub. With a full security audit by Halborn and a 90/100 score from CertiK, the safety of the system is verified. As the old guard of crypto struggles to regain its momentum, the transition to new cheap crypto projects like Mutuum Finance is becoming the main story of 2026.

For more information about Mutuum Finance (MUTM) visit the links below:

Website: https://www.mutuum.com

Linktree: https://linktr.ee/mutuumfinance

The post Can Ripple (XRP) and Cardano (ADA) Regain Momentum? Analysts Highlight a New Cheap Crypto appeared first on Blockonomi.

TLDR

• The Nevada Gaming Control Board claims Coinbase operates unlicensed prediction markets for sports and elections.
• Regulators argue Coinbase’s prediction markets fall under state gaming laws, not federal CFTC jurisdiction.
• Nevada officials point out that Coinbase’s app allows users below the state’s legal gambling age of 21 to participate.
• Coinbase is involved in a broader legal clash with multiple U.S. states over jurisdiction of digital betting markets.
• Nevada has previously taken action against platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket for similar issues, showing increasing state scrutiny.

The Nevada Gaming Control Board has filed a civil enforcement complaint against Coinbase Financial Markets. It claims that the platform is offering event-based contracts tied to sports and elections without a necessary state gaming license. The regulators have requested a permanent injunction, declaratory relief, and an emergency temporary restraining order.

Nevada’s Allegations Against Coinbase’s Market Activities

The Nevada Gaming Control Board argues that Coinbase’s prediction markets fall under state gaming regulations. The board claims that event-based contracts tied to sports outcomes and elections constitute wagering. According to Nevada law, such activities require a state-issued gaming license, which Coinbase lacks.

Coinbase began offering prediction market trading in the U.S. last month, partnering with Kalshi, a federally regulated market. Kalshi operates under the jurisdiction of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). However, Nevada regulators contend that the CFTC’s authority does not extend to sports betting or election-related contracts.

Nevada also highlights that Coinbase’s app allows users aged 18 and older to participate in prediction markets. This, they argue, is a violation of state law, as Nevada’s legal gambling age is 21. The regulators claim this exposes consumers to risks without the protections afforded by licensed sportsbooks.

Coinbase Faces Broader Legal Scrutiny

The legal battle in Nevada is part of a wider clash between Coinbase and various U.S. states. Recently, the exchange filed lawsuits against gaming regulators in Connecticut, Michigan, and Illinois.

In these cases, Coinbase argues that prediction markets should fall under the CFTC’s authority, not state gaming regulations. In response to these issues, Nevada officials assert that their primary responsibility is to protect consumers.

Nevada Gaming Control Board Chairman Mike Dreitzer emphasized the need for enforcement to ensure the integrity of the state’s gaming industry. He noted that new digital betting products create a challenge for traditional regulators.

Rising Tensions Over Prediction Markets

The legal dispute over Coinbase’s prediction market activities arrives amidst heightened state scrutiny. Nevada has previously taken action against Kalshi over sports-related contracts, resulting in a legal appeal.

More recently, the state issued a temporary restraining order blocking Polymarket from offering event contracts to residents. As federal and state regulators clash over the jurisdiction of digital betting markets, the pressure on platforms like Coinbase continues to rise.

In response to mounting concerns, Kalshi opened a Washington, D.C., office to advocate for policy change. As of now, the outcome of these ongoing legal battles remains uncertain.

The post Nevada Takes Legal Action Against Coinbase Over Unlicensed Betting Market appeared first on Blockonomi.

Bitcoin’s adverse price actions as of late worsened yesterday when the asset tumbled to its lowest positions since early November 2024 at $73,000 before recovering by a few grand.

Most altcoins followed suit with enhanced volatility, but some, such as SOL, HYPE, and CC, have been hit harder than others.

BTC’s Latest Rollercoaster

It was just a week ago when the primary cryptocurrency challenged the $90,000 resistance ahead of the first FOMC meeting for the year. After it became official that the Fed won’t cut the rates again, BTC remained sluggish at first but started to decline in the following hours.

The escalating tension in the Middle East was also blamed for another crash that took place on Thursday when bitcoin plunged to $81,000. It bounced off to $84,000 on Friday but tumbled once again on Saturday, this time to under $75,000. Another recovery attempt followed on Monday, only to be rejected at $79,000.

Tuesday brought the latest crash, this time to a 15-month low of $73,000. It has rebounded since then to just over $76,000, but it’s still 3% down on the day. Moreover, it has lost 14% of its value weekly and a whopping 18% monthly.

Its market capitalization has plummeted to $1.525 trillion on CG, while its dominance over the alts has declined to 57.3%.

SOL Below $100

Most larger-cap altcoins have felt the consequences of the violent market crash lately. Ethereum went from over $3,000 to $2,100 in the span of a week, before bouncing to $2,280 as of now. BNB is down to $760, while SOL has plummeted to under $100 after a 7% daily decline.

Even the recent high-flyer HYPE has retraced hard daily. The token is down by 11% to $33. CC and ZEC are also deep in the red, while XMR has gained the most from the larger caps.

The cumulative market cap of all crypto assets has seen more than $70 billion erased in a day and is down to $2.65 trillion on CG.

The post Solana (SOL) Plunges Below $100, Bitcoin (BTC) Recovers From 15-Month Low: Market Watch appeared first on CryptoPotato.

In times of heightened uncertainty, rapidly evolving geopolitical situations, and volatility in the US government, investors have shown markedly different behavior toward the spot crypto ETFs.

While those with exposure to the world’s largest cryptocurrency have been consistently pulling funds out of them, the XRP alternatives actually outperformed their counterparts with a strong daily net inflow yesterday.

XRP Outmatches Competition

Data from SoSoValue shows that the spot Bitcoin ETFs have been predominantly in the red for the past several weeks. February 2 was a proper exception, with more than $560 million entering the funds. However, the previous business week saw more than $1.4 billion in net outflows. February 3 was another painful trading day, with $272 million being pulled out.

Given the cryptocurrency’s recent price decline, ETF investors’ holdings have dipped below their average cost basis for accumulated BTC for the first time in 18 months.

For the first time in over 18 months, Bitcoin $BTC has dipped below the ETF cost basis at $82,600.

This is the average price at which spot ETFs accumulated BTC. https://t.co/uH0xhcDTUz pic.twitter.com/f9VGeVtAxS

— Ali Charts (@alicharts) February 4, 2026

The other crypto ETFs tracking larger-cap altcoins, though, were in the green. The spot Ethereum ETFs attracted $14.06 million; the SOL funds saw a minor net inflow of $1.24 million; and the XRP products outperformed the rest with a net gain of $19.46 million. In total, the Ripple ETFs saw more daily inflows than all other crypto funds combined yesterday.

In fact, this was the XRP ETFs’ best day since January 5, when net inflows reached $46.10 million. The cumulative net inflows into the Ripple funds is up to $1.20 billion, which is still slightly below the $1.26 peak recorded before the January 29 crash.

XRP’s Volatility

Yesterday was another highly eventful and volatile trading day in the cryptocurrency markets. Perhaps due to the growing tension in the Middle East and the partial reopening of the US government, or to ETF inflows and outflows, BTC fell to a yearly low of $73,000 before rebounding to over $76,000 as of press time.

The altcoins went through similar fluctuations. Interestingly, XRP dropped to $1.53, then rose to $1.63 before settling at $1.60 as of now. This means that the token is down by almost 17% weekly and 25% monthly. It was brutally rejected at the $2.40 high reached on January 6, and has failed to stage any sort of sustainable recovery since then.

The post XRP ETFs Beat BTC, ETH, and SOL Funds – Yet Ripple’s Price Still Struggles appeared first on CryptoPotato.

The decentralized finance (DeFi) blockchain network, Flare, has unveiled first-of-its-kind modular lending markets for XRP, introducing permissionless lending for the cryptocurrency.

According to a press release shared with CryptoPotato, the deployment features a partnership with the modular lending protocol, Morpho. Additionally, Flare is also joining forces with Mystic, a platform for curating lending markets across the Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM) ecosystem. With Morpho leading the integration of modular XRP lending markets on Flare, Mystic will serve as the front-end interface for Morpho on Flare.

Modular Lending Markets For XRP

Modular lending breaks down traditional, all-in-one crypto lending pools into isolated and customizable components. The architecture allows users to create tailored markets with specific oracle feeds and risk parameters, rather than having a single pool dictate risk for all involved assets. Such an approach enhances efficiency and security for users’ funds, given the volatile nature of the crypto market.

Besides launching the first-ever modular markets for XRP, the latest development introduces modular lending to the Flare ecosystem. The move marks a huge step forward in the network’s vision for XRP DeFi (XRPFi), which is transforming the crypto asset from a dormant one into a proactive source of yield and a composable strategy.

Flare has made it its mission to expand DeFi capabilities for XRP, as seen in yield tokenization via Spectra, spot trading through Hyperliquid, and staking via Firelight. In addition, Flare has launched its version of XRP, named FXRP, unlocking yield-generating opportunities for the digital asset.

With the addition of Morpho and Mystic to the framework, Flare has implemented an expansion that enables lending and borrowing use cases that retain XRP on its native blockchain while unlocking on-chain utility.

Expanding the XRPFi Ecosystem

Following the latest integration on Flare, FXRP can now deposit their assets into curated yield-bearing vaults, using FXRP (or other assets like Flare (FLR) and USDT0) as collateral to borrow supported assets. They can also integrate lending positions into structured strategies, gaining access to capabilities that enable capital to loop across staking, lending, and borrowing within a single ecosystem.

“Each market supports a single collateral and loan asset, with parameters such as loan-to-value ratios set at creation. Markets can be launched permissionlessly, while curated vaults allocate capital across selected markets based on defined risk and yield objectives,” Flare explained.

While Mystic serves as the primary access point for now, Flare intends to unveil additional interfaces, such as the Morpho main app, over time.

The post Earn Yield on XRP: Flare Launches New Lending Markets with Morpho appeared first on CryptoPotato.

Bitcoin prices tanked to around $73,000 in late trading on Tuesday, its lowest level since November 2024. The fall is significant because it dropped below April 2025 support levels, which were around $74,500, confirming bear market territory.

“Negative momentum is currently extreme as the bear market persists following the October 10 flash crash,” reported Swissblock.

The asset has now crashed 25% in less than three weeks and is down 40% from its all-time high.

“Bitcoin has now crashed over $53,000 in the last 120 days,” observed analyst ‘Bull Theory’ who added:

“Either this is an insane level of manipulation or something huge has broken behind the scenes in crypto.”

The move came as geopolitical tensions escalated again, with Iran seeking a new format for nuclear dialogue with the United States.

STH Capitulation Adds to Selling Pressure

“Short-term holders have been capitulating over the past few days,” said CryptoQuant analyst ‘Darkfost’. More than 40,000 BTC have been sent to exchanges at a loss over the past day or so, they added.

“This potential selling pressure appears to have impacted the market today. When large amounts of BTC are sent to exchanges, it is mainly for selling purposes.”

Short-Term Holders have been capitulating over the past few days.

In the last 24 hours, more than 40,000 BTC have been sent to exchanges at a loss.
⁰ Yesterday, that figure even reached 54,000 BTC.
At current prices, this represents roughly $4B.

This potential selling… pic.twitter.com/yX0HcOwSs3

— Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc) February 3, 2026

Santiment went into further detail, reporting that wallets with 10 to 10,000 BTC, which hold just over two-thirds of all Bitcoin, have dumped 50,181 units in the past two weeks alone.

However, the world’s largest exchange, Binance, “shows no signs of stress,” reported CryptoQuant.

“Reserves hold near 659,000 BTC, netflows remain normal, and reserve movement sits at just 0.6%, nowhere close to the -12% panic withdrawals seen post-FTX,” it added.

Analyst ‘Sykodelic’ also remained positive, stating that “this section below the $74K lows will provide the springboard for the next macro leg higher.”

“Taking the lows, losing $74K temporarily, pushing everyone over the edge, even the most staunch of bulls… baiting a massive bear trap.”

Total Market Cap at 9 Month Low

Bitcoin had returned to trade at $76,500 at the time of writing in early trading in Asia on Wednesday, so the dip below long-term support was short-lived. However, the rest of the crypto market is in meltdown, with total capitalization tanking to a nine-month low of $2.64 trillion.

Ether fell to $2,120 before a minor recovery, and most of the altcoins had crashed to crypto winter lows with very little recovery.

The post Bitcoin Loses Long-Term Support, Tanking to $73K as Short-Term Holders Capitulate appeared first on CryptoPotato.

BitRiver, Russia’s largest Bitcoin miner, is on the verge of collapse amid mounting financial and legal problems. Courts have placed its parent company, Fox Group of Companies, under observation as debts and unpaid obligations pile up.

One of the disputes driving the court action involves Infrastructure of Siberia. The company is seeking more than $9 million after BitRiver failed to deliver mining equipment. The case stems from a large advance payment for hardware that was never supplied. This led to a lawsuit and a ruling in favor of the energy firm.

Operational Bans and Energy Disputes

Operational bans have hit BitRiver’s regional sites hard. Mining centers in Irkutsk and Buryatia remain offline due to government restrictions. In addition, a 40 MW facility in Ingushetia was shut down by authorities for violating local rules.

These shutdowns have worsened the company’s financial strain, coming alongside rising disputes over unpaid electricity bills. Energy suppliers have filed claims totaling hundreds of millions of rubles. Some also lost trading rights after nonpayment, further restricting BitRiver’s ability to operate.

Leadership issues have added to the pressure. The company’s founder and CEO, Igor Runets, was placed under house arrest in connection with multiple tax evasion charges. Authorities allege that he attempted to conceal company assets to avoid paying taxes, a claim that Runets and his legal team have denied.

BitRiver’s Struggles Amid Sector Growth

BitRiver has also struggled under international pressure. US sanctions and partner exits have cut access to foreign markets. Japanese firms, including SBI, also withdrew from Russia, limiting financial support and supply channels.

The company once managed over 175,000 rigs across 15 centers, generating $129 million in revenue last year. Its rapid decline highlights the fragile balance between regulatory, financial, and operational pressures in Russia’s mining industry.

Despite BitRiver’s setbacks, Russia’s crypto mining sector continues to expand. Grid-connected mining capacity rose 33% in 2025 to 4 GW, reflecting strong domestic demand for industrial mining infrastructure.

Analysts say BitRiver’s bankruptcy could signal broader challenges for large-scale miners operating in restrictive regions. Yet the sector’s continued growth shows that Russia remains a major player in global Bitcoin mining, even as individual companies falter.

The post Russia’s Largest Bitcoin Miner BitRiver Enters Bankruptcy Proceedings: Report appeared first on CryptoPotato.